Bentonite exhibits good self-sealing performance and low permeability after hydration, and therefore is selected as a buffer material for high-level radioactive waste repositories, isolating the canisters containing nuclear waste from the external environment. The bentonite cushion directly contacts the surrounding rock and generates gels at the contact interface with fracture water. Surface erosion occurs once the shear stress exerted by the flowing water exceeds the erosion threshold of the bentonite gel, resulting in gel particle detachment from the soil–water interface and transport through fissure. The mass loss of the buffer by erosion will weaken its functionality as designed and directly endanger the long-term safety of the repository. The erosion behavior of bentonite is related to the structure of the gel formed by bentonite hydration. In this paper, the X-ray small-angle scattering experiments were used to prove that the gel structure has fractal characteristics and to obtain the mass fractal dimension. Based on the fractal structure of the bentonite gel, the erosion threshold that determines whether erosion will occur was quantified as a function of the solid volume fraction of the gel by taking the inter-particle attractive bond as the primary source of resistance. Furtherly, the cumulative erosion mass model that evaluates the extent of erosion was constructed to reveal the relationship between the cumulative erosion mass and cumulative water flow after the erosion has achieved stability. The proposed relations are verified by the experimental results from published literature and are of great significance for judging whether erosion will occur and evaluating the degree of erosion.
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