Budget Cycle Research Articles

Political Budget Cycles and Mayoral Influence in Latvian Municipalities: An Examination of Revenue, Expenditure, and Electoral Dynamics

Budget allocation and budget planning can be used in different ways. In addition, it can be part of a political budget cycle. Previous research has highlighted the political budget cycle's existence in European countries, demonstrating its impact on public revenue and expenditure near elections. However, citizens often lack awareness of this phenomenon, underscoring the need for vigilant scrutiny. In addition, elected politicians increasingly rely on voters for support, targeting them during budget allocation and election campaigns. In Latvia, the mayors have a role in budget planning because they work full-time and are the head of the financial commission. In Latvia, despite a lack of trust in local politicians, there is a tendency for most of the mayors to be re-elected. The article aims to examine what kind of role the council’s chairperson has in the local government's budget allocation process and what factors affect the budget allocation process in Latvia. The article’s scope encompasses the years 2009 to 2017, spanning two election terms (2009-2013; 2013-2017), and focuses on eight state cities in Latvia, excluding the capital city, Riga. Notably, local governments with a higher percentage of council members from the mayor's party tend to exhibit higher expenditure levels. The findings of this study suggest that various socio-economic and political factors impact the financial performance of local governments in Latvia. These results underscore the significance of population and unemployment in shaping local government expenditures. Simultaneously, this research has highlighted the importance of political factors such as the majority in the local government and time spent in the mayor’s position. Moreover, it reveals that long-serving mayors and a majority in the council also influence budget allocation decisions. This article's implications can guide policymakers in making informed decisions regarding municipal budget expenditures and revenues.

Budget Process and Execution: A Case Study on the Underperformance of the Peruvian Health System, 2000-2021.

Health system financing for emerging economies with aging populations and changing epidemiological profiles is an increasing challenge. Peru, as one of the countries with the highest economic growth in this century, provides a good example for analyzing the impact of the budgeting process and the budget execution on the performance of a health system. This article aims to answer how policies and processes are the root causes of the performance gap of the Peruvian health system. We used a case study methodology composed of 17 semistructured interviews with senior national and regional actors conducted between the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Participants were selected with a combination of purposive, convenience, and snowball sampling until reaching saturation at 14 interviews. Participants' answers were grouped according to the topics explored, enabling comparisons and identification of themes. The responses revealed that 4 interconnected influences affect the Peruvian health system. Political instability affects the sustainable development of health policies. The fiscal cycle limits the public health expenditure to a low 3% of the gross domestic product. The budget cycle is based on the low motivation of the Ministry of Health (MOH) to establish a proper budgeting process. The execution cycle represents the results of chronic underinvestment with a lack of professionals, equipment, and data affecting the access to care expressed by a high out-of-pocket share in health expenditure. To escape these cycles, the MOH needs to be able to argue in economic terms for the prioritization of health, showing the economic rationale for investment in health. Taxes need to finance the additional investment within the available fiscal space. The rigidity of the budget law needs to be adapted, and a technical budget that is oriented to the current and future health priorities needs to be elaborated.

A global estimate of monthly vegetation and soil fractions from spatiotemporally adaptive spectral mixture analysis during 2001–2022

Abstract. Multifaceted regime shifts of Earth's surface are ongoing dramatically and – in turn – considerably alter the global carbon budget, energy balance and biogeochemical cycles. Sustainably managing terrestrial ecosystems necessitates a deeper comprehension of the diverse and dynamic nature of multicomponent information within these environments. However, comprehensive records of global-scale fractional vegetation and soil information that encompass these structural and functional complexities remain limited. Here, we provide a globally comprehensive record of monthly vegetation and soil fractions during the period 2001–2022 using a spatiotemporally adaptive spectral mixture analysis framework. This product is designed to continuously represent Earth's terrestrial surface as a percentage of five physically meaningful vegetation and soil endmembers, including photosynthetic vegetation (PV), nonphotosynthetic vegetation (NPV), bare soil (BS), ice or snow (IS) and dark surface (DA), with high accuracy and low uncertainty compared to the previous vegetation index and vegetation continuous-field product as well as traditional fully constrained linear spectral mixture models. We also adopt nonparametric seasonal Mann–Kendall tested fractional dynamics to identify shifts based on interactive changes in these fractions. Our results – superior to previous portrayals of the greening planet – not only report a +9.35 × 105 km2 change in photosynthetic vegetation, but also explore decreases in nonphotosynthetic vegetation (−2.19 × 105 km2), bare soil (−5.14 × 105 km2) and dark surfaces (−2.27 × 105 km2). In addition, interactive changes in these fractions yield multifaceted regime shifts with important implications, such as a simultaneous increase in PV and NPV in central and southwestern China during afforestation activities, an increase in PV in cropland of China and India due to intensive agricultural development, a decrease in PV and an increase in BS in tropical zones resulting from deforestation. These advantages emphasize that our dataset provides locally relevant information on multifaceted regime shifts at the required scale, enabling scalable modeling and effective governance of future terrestrial ecosystems. The data about five fractional surface vegetation and soil components are available in the Science Data Bank (https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.13287, Sun and Sun, 2023).

Disk‐Integrated Earth’s Outgoing Longwave Radiation Viewed From a Moon‐Based Platform: Model Simulations

AbstractA Moon‐based sensor can observe the Earth as a single point and achieve disk‐integrated measurements of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), which significantly differs from low orbital, geostationary, and Sun–Earth L1 point platforms. In this study, a scheme of determining the disk‐integrated Earth’s OLR based on a Moon‐based platform is proposed. The observational solid angle was theoretically derived based on the Earth’s ellipsoid model and the disk‐integrated observational anisotropic factor was estimated to eliminate the effects of the Earth’s radiant anisotropy. The simulated disk‐integrated Earth's OLR obtained from a Moon‐based platform varies periodically, due to changes in the observation geometry and Earth's scene distribution within the observed Earth’s disk. Clouds, meteorological parameters, and the land cover distribution notably affect the disk‐integrated Earth’s OLR. By analyzing the disk‐integrated Earth’s OLR from a Moon‐based platform, significant variabilities were investigated. Additionally, the Earth’s shape and radiant anisotropy that affecting the disk‐integrated Earth’s OLR were estimated. In conclusion, a more realistic Earth’s shape, the latest version of the angular distribution model (ADM), and accurate land cover and meteorological datasets are needed when determining the disk‐integrated Earth’s OLR. It is expected the unique variability captured by this platform and its ability to complement traditional satellite data make it a valuable tool for studying Earth’s radiation budget and energy cycle, and contributing to diagnostic of the climate General Circulation Models (GCM) performance.

Water cycle changes in Czechia: a multi-source water budget perspective

Abstract. The water cycle in Czechia has been observed to be changing in recent years, with precipitation and evapotranspiration rates exhibiting a trend of acceleration. However, the spatial patterns of such changes remain poorly understood due to the heterogeneous network of ground observations. This study relied on multiple state-of-the-art reanalyses and hydrological modeling. Herein, we propose a novel method for benchmarking hydroclimatic data fusion based on water cycle budget closure. We ranked water cycle budget closure of 96 different combinations for precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff using CRU TS v4.06, E-OBS, ERA5-Land, mHM, NCEP/NCAR R1, PREC/L, and TerraClimate. Then, we used the best-ranked data to describe changes in the water cycle in Czechia over the last 60 years. We determined that Czechia is undergoing water cycle acceleration, evinced by increased atmospheric water fluxes. However, the increase in annual total precipitation is not as pronounced nor as consistent as evapotranspiration, resulting in an overall decrease in the runoff. Furthermore, non-parametric bootstrapping revealed that only evapotranspiration changes are statistically significant at the annual scale. At higher frequencies, we identified significant spatial heterogeneity when assessing the water cycle budget at a seasonal scale. Interestingly, the most significant temporal changes in Czechia occur during spring, while the spatial pattern of the change in median values stems from summer changes in the water cycle, which are the seasons within the months with statistically significant changes.

The effects of resource rents and elections on human capital investment in Colombia

Previous studies have shown that politicians tend to behave opportunistically by promoting expansionary fiscal policies before elections in order to advance their political careers. While there is ample evidence of political budget cycles (PBCs) on the national-level, subnational-level analysis remains limited. To address this gap, this article examines whether resource rents fuel PBCs in Colombia at the subnational level. In particular, it analyzes whether a fiscal reform that redistributes royalty revenue between subnational governments, propagates the windfall effect to other states or limits the negative development impacts of resource rents and PBCs. Using municipal-level data and system generalized method of moments estimation to account for potential endogeneity, we found that municipalities invested in health and education according to the size of the resource rents they received. We also found that the fiscal policy reform in Colombia leads municipalities’ decisions about investment in human capital less reliant on resource revenue, especially for producer municipalities.

Menelisik Omnibus Law Bidang Perencanaan Anggaran

In the context of budget regulations, in 2023, Government Regulation Number 6 of 2023 and Minister of Finance Regulation Number 62 of 2023 were issued which have the omnibus law character. This research aims to examine the omnibus law in the field of budget planning to analyze whether there are substances that have not been regulated, substances that are less in line with other regulations, and substances that from a grammatical perspective give rise to multiple interpretations. The research method was carried out through a descriptive qualitative approach. The research results show that the mechanism for preparing the state budget has not been fully described by the state budget cycle, the preparation of the Medium-Term Development Plan and the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (from the funding side) needs to refer to the Medium-Term Budget Framework. In addition, the mechanism for calculating the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework has not been fully described. Furthermore, to increase the efficiency of budget allocation, it is best to add, reduce, and or shift the budget ceiling not only at the line ministries level but also need to be done at the national level. The mechanism is carried out through national blocking savings, where inefficient allocations are blocked and savings are made, then when preparing the Budget Allocation, the figures resulting from the national saving are redistributed to priority programs/activities in various line ministries.

Soil biomass-related enzyme activity indicates minimal functional changes after 16 years of persistent drought treatment in a Mediterranean holm oak forest

Long-term drought impacts soil microbial responses and enzymatic activity, affecting carbon budget and nutrient cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We examined a Mediterranean holm oak forest subjected to 16 years of drought treatment to understand the effects on soil organic matter decomposition, nutrient cycling, and enzymatic activity. We compared potential and biomass-related (normalized to microbial biomass) soil enzyme activity with measurements taken 10 years earlier. Relationships between potential enzyme activity, soil moisture, temperature, nutrient availability, and plant/microbial activity were explored. The prolonged drought led to decreased potential activities of all enzymes, especially acid phosphatase, protease, and urease. However, biomass-related activities of protease, urease, and phosphatase were unaffected. Interestingly, biomass-related beta-glucosidase activity increased during dry seasons, indicating a functional adaptation for carbon acquisition during extreme dry conditions. The negative impact of drought on potential enzyme activity intensified over time, particularly during summer when drought intensity increased. Soil water availability, microbial biomass, and nutrient availability strongly influenced potential enzyme activity. Long-term drought and summer aridity led to increased substrate accumulation in the soil. However, no significant changes were observed in biomass-related activities of nitrogen and phosphorus-acquiring enzymes. This lack of change is likely attributed to a decrease in the absolute potential enzyme activity capacity, caused by a reduction in microbial biomass in drought-affected plots, thereby favoring substrate accumulation. Specific functional adaptations were observed, including increased carbon acquisition by soil microbes during extreme summer drought. Long-term water scarcity in water-limited ecosystems diminishes the system's capacity to acquire resources through enzyme production, impacting mineralization and nutrient dynamics. Future climate scenarios may entail reduced ecosystem-level mineralization, carbon and nitrogen shifts from plants to soil, compromising plant control over nutrients, and increasing the risk of resource loss through leaching and erosion.

Enhancing the Role of Parliament in the Budget-Making Processes

A budget is an important financial plan that provides a framework for the effective allocation of resources and is thus vital for ensuring effective public financial management. Parliaments play a critical role in ensuring that budgets deliver their intended outcomes. It is the responsibility of Parliaments to exercise oversight roles over the executives’ budget proposals, scrutinise budget information, and depending on the government system in place, approve, amend, or draft a new budget. The aim of this paper is to explore mechanisms that can be used to enhance the role of Parliament in budget-making processes by focusing on gender budgeting, budget reforms, and capacity building through the establishment of Independent Financial Institutions (IFIs) such as Parliamentary Budget Offices (PBOs) as mechanisms of enhancement. Based on the aim of this paper, the researcher chose to use a descriptive research design and employed a desktop research approach through a literature review. The relevant data was collected from various sources such as books, journals, and the internet. The online sources included in the academic database and government portals containing information relating to Parliaments, budgeting processes, and budget management. The findings suggest that Parliament plays an important role in ensuring that a budget is transparent, accountable, and responsive to the needs and demands of the public, including women and marginalised groups. It is also evident that some of the main challenges faced by Parliament to ensure an effective budgeting process include limited resources, political interference, and inadequate public participation. The study concludes that parliamentary involvement during the budget-making process is critical and therefore recommends strengthening the institutional capacity of Parliament, promoting public participation in the budget process, and ensuring gender-responsive budgeting in all stages of the budget cycle. Keywords: Parliament; Budget; Budget-making processes

Political budget cycle and the alignment effect: Evidence from South Korea

This study examines the effect of political alignment on the political budget cycle in multi-level local governments (municipal and regional governments). The central government may increase transfers to politically unaligned municipalities before local elections if (1) these municipalities are part of politically aligned regions and (2) the alignment of regional incumbents determines the political fate of the president. To formalize this hypothesis, we present a simple political agency model of multi-level governments. Using data from 226 Korean municipalities within 16 regions, and a regression discontinuity design, we find that, during local election years, the central government increases discretionary subsidies to municipalities that are part of aligned regions. In particular, subsidies increase significantly before local elections in unaligned municipalities if they are located in aligned regions. Finally, an increase in subsidies increases the regional vote share obtained by the ruling party.

The Impact of Local Governments’ Budget Transparency on Debt in Croatia

Abstract We investigate the impact of the budget transparency of local governments on debt using a panel data analysis of all 556 Croatian cities and municipalities over the 2014-2021 period. The analysis shows that increased budget transparency is associated with lower local government debt, i.e., budget transparency enables better public control of unnecessary debt. Additionally, regarding the legal regulation according to which higher own revenues enable higher borrowing, we examine the link between budget transparency and own revenues. The results show that local governments with higher budget transparency have higher own revenues, i.e., budget transparency can help local governments better control opportunistic borrowing and simultaneously increase their own revenues. Finally, we detect political budget cycles related to local government revenues and debt. This paper constitutes the first attempt to explore the effect of budget transparency on debt and own revenues in all local governments in one young democracy.

Budget monitoring, accountability practices and their influence on the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya.

Public Finance Management (PFM) practices influence the attainment of health system goals. PFM processes are implemented within the budget cycle which entails the formulation, execution, and monitoring of government budgets. Budget monitoring and accountability actors, structures, and processes are important in improving the efficiency of health systems. This study examined how the budget monitoring and accountability processes influence the efficiency of county health systems in KenyaWe conducted a qualitative case study of four counties in Kenya selected based on their relative technical efficiency. We collected data using in-depth interviews with health and finance stakeholders (n = 70), and document reviews. We analyzed data using a thematic approach, informed by our study conceptual framework. We found that weak budget monitoring and accountability mechanisms compromised county health system efficiency by a) weakening the effective implementation of the budget formulation and execution steps of the budget cycle, b) enabling the misappropriation of public resources, and c) limiting evidence-informed decision-making by weakening feedback that would be provided by effective monitoring and accountability. Devolution meant that accountability actors were closer to implementation actors which promoted timely problem solving and the relevance of solutions. Internal audit practices were supportive and provided useful feedback to health system managers that facilitated improvements in budget formulation and execution. The efficiency of county health systems can be improved by strengthening the budget monitoring and accountability processes. This can be achieved by increasing the population's budget literacy, supporting participatory budgeting, synchronizing performance and financial accountability, implementing the existent budget monitoring and accountability mechanisms, rewarding efficiency, and sanctioning inefficiency.

Benefits of a robotic chamber system for determining evapotranspiration in an erosion-affected, heterogeneous cropland

Abstract. In the light of the ongoing global climate crisis and the related increases in extreme hydrological events, it is crucial to assess ecosystem resilience and – in agricultural systems – to ensure sustainable management and food security. For this purpose, a comprehensive understanding of ecosystem water cycle budgets and spatiotemporal dynamics is indispensable. Evapotranspiration (ET) plays a pivotal role in returning up to 90 % of incoming precipitation back to the atmosphere. Here, we studied the impacts of soil types and management on an agroecosystem's seasonal cumulative ET (ETsum) and agronomic water use efficiency (WUEagro, the dry matter per unit of water used by the crop). To do so, a plot experiment with winter rye (17 September 2020 to 30 June 2021) was conducted in an eroded cropland which is located in the hilly and dry ground moraine landscape of the Uckermark region in northeastern Germany. Along the experimental plot (110 m × 16 m), two closed chambers were mounted on a robotic gantry crane system (FluxCrane as part of the AgroFlux platform) and used to determine ET. Three soil types representing the full soil erosion gradient related to the hummocky ground moraine landscape (extremely eroded: Calcaric Regosol; strongly eroded: Nudiargic Luvisol; non-eroded: Calcic Luvisol) and additional topsoil dilution (topsoil removal and subsoil admixture) were investigated (randomized block design, three replicates per treatment). Five different modeling approaches were used and compared in the light of their potential for reliable ETsum over the entire crop cultivation period and to reproduce short-term (e.g., diurnal) water flux dynamics. While machine-learning approaches such as support vector machines (SVMs) and artificial neural networks (with Bayesian regularization; ANN_BR) generally performed well during calibration, SVMs also provided a satisfactory prediction of measured ET during validation (k-fold cross-validation, k=5). We found significant differences in dry biomass (DM) and small trends in ETsum between soil types, resulting in different WUEagro. The extremely eroded Calcaric Regosol showed an up to 46 % lower ETsum and up to 54 % lower WUEagro compared to the non-eroded Calcic Luvisol. The key period contributing to 70 % of ETsum spanned the beginning of stem elongation in April to the harvest in June. However, differences in the ETsum between soil types and topsoil dilution resulted predominantly from small differences between the treatments throughout the cultivation rather than only during this short period of time.

Political Incentives, Bureaucratic Behaviors and Political Budget Cycles in China

Political Incentives, Bureaucratic Behaviors and Political Budget Cycles in China

What steps can improve and promote investment in the health and care workforce in Europe?

Abstract Background Recent experiences from Ireland and elsewhere have shown the urgent need for countries and international actors to prioritize investment in the health and care workforce (HCWF) and ensure funding is used well. This research, based on a European Observatory on Health Systems and Policies policy brief, explores: i) areas for strategic investments in the HCWF; and ii) how greater funding from domestic and international sources can be secured. Methods A scoping review of English-language peer reviewed and grey literature was conducted across databases and online repositories including PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar, WHO data collections. The literature search focused on two areas: 1) areas for strategic investments in the organization, training, deployment and management of the HCWF; 2) actions that can help scale-up investment from domestic and international financing sources. Findings Strategic investments to effectively enhance the sustainability of the HCWF can be grouped into strategies that aim to: 1) increase the quantity, quality and diversity of available HCWs through education investments; 2) reskill and optimize use of the HCWF through investments in preventative and primary care, skill mix reforms and digital technologies; 3) improve employment and retention through labour market interventions and protecting, supporting and managing the HCWF. Ministries of Health must be able to share the measurable benefits of workforce development to secure greater investment, which requires: evidence on the socioeconomic benefits of HCWF investments; strong leadership and capacity; improved intersectoral governance processes; and more efficient and transparent health sector budget cycle processes. Conclusions Education, employment and retention of HCWs needs to be a priority in public expenditure to increase supply, protect the existing workforce and plan ahead to address future challenges.

Satellite-Based Evaluation of Submarine Permafrost Erosion at Shallow Offshore Areas in the Laptev Sea

Large areas of the seafloor in the Laptev Sea consist of submarine permafrost, which has experienced intense degradation over the last decades and centuries. Thermal abrasion of the submarine permafrost results in upward advection of suspended matter, which could reach the surface layer in shallow areas. This process is visually manifested through increased turbidity of the sea surface layer, which is regularly detected in optical satellite imagery of the study areas. In this study, satellite data, wind and wave reanalysis, as well as in situ measurements are analyzed in order to reveal the main mechanisms of seafloor erosion in shallow areas of the Laptev Sea. We describe the synoptic variability in erosion at the Vasilyevskaya and Semenovskaya shoals in response to wind and wave conditions. Finally, using reanalysis data, daily suspended matter flux from this area was evaluated during ice-free periods in 1979–2021, and its seasonal and inter-annual variabilities were described. The obtained results contribute to our understanding of subsea permafrost degradation, the sediment budget, and carbon and nutrient cycles in the Laptev Sea.

Challenges of Budgeting and Public Financial Management in Iran's Health System: A Qualitative Study.

Efficient and effective management of budgets and financial resources is critical for health systems to achieve their goals; in this regard, countries may face budgetary and financial challenges owing to the weak prediction of resources and consumptions, and lack of prioritization for their budget. This study aims to identify the most critical policies and events that have affected public financial management and health budgeting and existing challenges in Iran. We conducted the present study in 2022 using a 2-stage qualitative method. First, by reviewing upstream documents and laws, we identified evidence related to health budgeting. Then, we conducted 13 semi-structured interviews with informed people in the health budgeting field that led us toward the main challenges through thematic content analysis. After reviewing 48 upstream documents related to health budgeting, we identified 85 policies. After reviewing the articles, we achieved 11 themes and 71 subthemes. The most critical challenges of the budgeting cycle were as follows: (I) budget formulation, including inappropriate budget structure, conflicts of interest and infringement, lack of financial sustainability, and transparency; (II) budget execution, including a nonexecutable approved budget, complicated allocation process, and ineffective allocations; and (III) monitoring, reporting, and evaluation (MR&E), including fragmentation of MR&E processes, ineffective monitoring and evaluation, weak evaluation of platforms, and inadequate transparency. Most challenges in the health budgeting system are related to the budget formulation and approval stage that have their roots in implementation, monitoring, and reporting. In addition, Iran's macroeconomic and financial issues have also damaged the budgeting of the health sector. Budget problems affect the goals and outcomes of this sector, especially the health system.

Financial Interrelations of scenario Indicators of budget Forecasting with Indicators of the Federal budget of Russia

The realism of the scenario indicators used in the formation of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in the context of the special significance of the budgetary mechanism for the adaptation of the national economy to global challenges becomes of particular importance while maintaining internal and external sanctions risks. The purpose of this study is to assess the validity of the forecast values of scenario macroeconomic indicators that determine the key characteristics of the Russian federal budget in the current budget cycle, and to develop proposals for clarifying the composition and concretizing approaches to their forecasting for the medium term in conditions of increased uncertainty. The study is based on an abstract-logical method, including a critical analysis of the predictive values of macro-indicators adopted as the basis for the parameters of the federal budget of the Russian Federation in 2023 and the planned period of 2024 and 2025 (using the level of consumer prices and the exchange rate of the ruble as an example), establishing causal relationships between the reliability of projected budget parameters at the federal level and the state of the Russian economy, identifying possible directions for the development of approaches to forecasting initial indicators for the preparation of the federal budget. In particular, the article suggests that in the forecasting of basic scenario parameters to detail the accounting for the dynamics of world prices, the real effective exchange rate of the ruble, to optimize the selection of exchange rate factors, and to take into account the variability of exchange rate volatility. The author’s developments presented in the article contribute to the efficiency of the execution of the federal budget in terms of the use of its resources, and therefore can be used in the activities of state authorities in the development of budget policy.

Ensemble of optimised machine learning algorithms for predicting surface soil moisture content at a global scale

Abstract. Accurate information on surface soil moisture (SSM) content at a global scale under different climatic conditions is important for hydrological and climatological applications. Machine-learning-based systematic integration of in situ hydrological measurements, complex environmental and climate data, and satellite observation facilitate the generation of reliable data products to monitor and analyse the exchange of water, energy, and carbon in the Earth system at a proper space–time resolution. This study investigates the estimation of daily SSM using 8 optimised machine learning (ML) algorithms and 10 ensemble models (constructed via model bootstrap aggregating techniques and five-fold cross-validation). The algorithmic implementations were trained and tested using International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) data collected from 1722 stations distributed across the world. The result showed that the K-neighbours Regressor (KNR) had the lowest root-mean-square error (0.0379 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_random” set (for testing the performance of randomly split data during training), the Random Forest Regressor (RFR) had the lowest RMSE (0.0599 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_temporal” set (for testing the performance on the period that was not used in training), and AdaBoost (AB) had the lowest RMSE (0.0786 cm3 cm−3) on the “test_independent-stations” set (for testing the performance on the stations that were not used in training). Independent evaluation on novel stations across different climate zones was conducted. For the optimised ML algorithms, the median RMSE values were below 0.1 cm3 cm−3. GradientBoosting (GB), Multi-layer Perceptron Regressor (MLPR), Stochastic Gradient Descent Regressor (SGDR), and RFR achieved a median r score of 0.6 in 12, 11, 9, and 9 climate zones, respectively, out of 15 climate zones. The performance of ensemble models improved significantly, with the median RMSE value below 0.075 cm3 cm−3 for all climate zones. All voting regressors achieved r scores of above 0.6 in 13 climate zones; BSh (hot semi-arid climate) and BWh (hot desert climate) were the exceptions because of the sparse distribution of training stations. The metric evaluation showed that ensemble models can improve the performance of single ML algorithms and achieve more stable results. Based on the results computed for three different test sets, the ensemble model with KNR, RFR and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XB) performed the best. Overall, our investigation shows that ensemble machine learning algorithms have a greater capability with respect to predicting SSM compared with the optimised or base ML algorithms; this indicates their huge potential applicability in estimating water cycle budgets, managing irrigation, and predicting crop yields.

Political Budget Cycles. Evidence from Romania

Political Budget Cycles. Evidence from Romania