Budget Responsibility Research Articles

More and better video evidence for police investigations of shootings: Chicago's area technology centers

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to describe the creation, implementation, activities and rationale for the Area Technology Centers (ATCs), an innovation adopted by the Chicago Police Department’s (CPD’s) Bureau of Detectives (BoD) in 2019 for the purpose of supporting investigations of crimes of serious violence by deploying specialized teams of officers to gather and process video and digital evidence.Design/methodology/approachThis case study utilizes historical information and descriptive data generated by a record-keeping system adopted by the ATCs.FindingsThe ATCs were developed as a collaboration between the CPD and the University of Chicago Crime Lab (a research center). The start-up was funded by a gift from the Griffin Foundation. Detectives have made extensive use of the services provided by the ATCs from the beginning, with the result that homicide and shooting investigations now have access to more video and digital evidence that has been processed by state-of-the-art equipment. The CPD has assumed budget responsibility for the ATCs, which is an indication of their success. The ATC teams have been assembled by voluntary transfers by sworn officers, together with an embedded analyst from the University of Chicago.Practical implicationsThe ATC model could be adopted by other large police departments. The study finds that ATCs can be effectively staffed by redeploying and training existing staff and that their operation does not require a budget increase.Social implicationsBy arguably making police investigations of shooting cases more efficient, the ATCs have the potential to increase the clearance rate and thereby prevent future gun violence.Originality/valueThe ATCs are a novel response to the challenges of securing and making good use of video and digital evidence in police investigations.

COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM

The study aims to make risk assessment of investment in the United Kingdom so as to open a new branch of a big bank in United Arab Emirate. The findings of the risk assessment recommended to establish the new branch in the UK basing on diverse reasons. Firstly, according to the international monitory fund report, the GDP of the United Kingdom will increase from the financial year 2018 through the financial year 2022. The economy will advance and widen. Plus, the growth in GDP indicate that all sector in economy including the banking sector will also develop. Secondly, according to the UK office Budget Responsibility (ORB) projections, the UK interest rate will rise in the coming four financial years that will surely be reflected on the increase of profitability. Thirdly, the inflation rate in the UK will decrease in the coming four years, which has positive effects on the banking sectors because inflation rate leads to low costs of products and services. Additionally, the GDP per capital of the UK rise in the coming four fiscal years which is healthy for banking sector to be highly productive and profitable. More importantly the population of the UK will increase in the coming four years, which is favourable to the banking sector this means that the number of will increase. Moreover, the bank of England allows all the commercial banks in the country. Another reason that encourage investing in the UK is the advancement in technology. Besides, the most important reason encourage investment in the UK is the country’s system of governance that is a democratic system of leadership that does not hinders private investors unless they violate law. The researchers conclude that they recommend the decision to open the new bank in the UK. Since the benefits supersede the costs. 
 
 JEL: E22; F21; G21
 
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КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНІ ЗАСАДИ ПОБУДОВИ УПРАВЛІНСЬКОГО ОБЛІКУ ЦЕНТРІВ ВІДПОВІДАЛЬНОСТІ ПРИ БЮДЖЕТУВАННІ НА ОЛІЙНО-ЖИРОВИХ ПІДПРИЄМСТВАХ УКРАЇНИ

Анотація. Проаналізовано управлінський облік центрів відповідальності, що утворюють специфічні об’єкти обліку витрат, а саме бюджетні центри відповідальності. Представлена система управлінського поопераційного обліку витрат відповідає вимогам бюджетування і стає необхідною умовою контролю за рівнем дотримання нормативів та забезпечує обґрунтоване формування виробничої собівартості продукції з технологічних переділів на олійно-жирових підприємствах. Інформаційним підґрунтям процесу складання бюджету є управлінський облік. Більше того, управлінський облік забезпечує потрібну інформацію для планування бюджету, контролю та аналізу виконання бюджету, а також є однією зі складових процесу бюджетування. Оцінка центрів відповідальності є корисною для розуміння циклів економічної діяльності, економічних процесів і структурних підрозділів у рамках створення бюджетів. Система управлінського обліку на основі операцій переважно відповідає вимогам бюджетування, що стає необхідною умовою контролю за стандартними умовами ведення обліку. Для одержання більш деталізованої інформації для аналізу і контролю пропонується організацію обліку витрат здійснювати за операціями-функціями технологічних процесів, що дає можливість аналітикам знаходити вузькі місця в технології через виявлення зайвих технологічних функцій і операцій та посилити контроль за дотриманням доведених бюджетів кожному «центру відповідальності». Облік центрів відповідальності має на меті оцінити управлінську діяльність окремого центру відповідальності, надати звіт про відповідальність та інформаційний звіт для оцінки вищого керівництва. Це метод управлінського обліку, який вимірює результати кожного центру відповідальності, що дозволяє кожному керівникові усвідомлювати відповідальність у своїй галузі, що стосується обліку витрат і бюджетування. Ключові слова: управлінський облік, центри відповідальності, технологічні переділи, бюджетування, звіт центру відповідальності, гнучкі бюджети. Формул: 0; рис.: 0; табл.: 2; бібл.: 14.

Constructing Experts Without Expertise: Fiscal Reporting in the British Press, 2010–2016

ABSTRACT Economic news uses fiscal experts to construct discourse about government deficits, debt, spending, and services. Most previous studies have assumed that knowledge and understanding are key to the construction of economic expertise in news. This study undertakes a quantitative analysis to discover how the British press represents three high-profile fiscal experts: the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the National Audit Office (NAO), and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It analyses 21,515 articles published in the Financial Times, Independent, Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, and Times between May 2010 and December 2016. Surprisingly, the results show that explicit constructions of knowing, understanding, or even being expert are rarely associated with the experts themselves. Markers of social position—being “independent” or “respected”—are much more prominent than indicators of technical knowledge or deep understanding of government finances. Discourses of economic expertise in news are less technical and more social than one would assume from previous scholarship. Journalists use expert sources in the text not to confront complexity, but rather to invoke the experts’ networked positions. Press text constructs expert judgments as superior by representing the experts as properly positioned to judge, not by representing their judgments as being better informed.

Universal basic income and Covid‐19

The Covid-19 crisis promises to be as big a shock to the UK economy as the 2007-08 financial crisis. The Office for Budget Responsibility recently published a scenario of the likely economic impact of the coronavirus shock to the economy. Making a number of assumptions, it suggested that real national income would fall by about a third in the second quarter of 2020. Public sector net borrowing would rise to about 14 per cent of national income, and this would be the highest annual deficit since the second world war. One idea for relieving the economic effects of the crisis is to implement a universal basic income. A basic income promises: ‘regular, non-meanstested cash transfers to all residents of a political territory on an individual basis, without means-test or work requirement’. A universal basic income has five key parts, namely, that it: is regular; is paid in cash; is provided to the individual; is universal with no means test; and is unconditional with no requirement to work or seek work. Long-standing supporters of a basic income, such as Guy Standing, call for this policy to help people cope with the economic fallout of the global pandemic. This piece considers whether Covid-19 affects two key objections to a universal basic income among the left: adequacy and opportunity cost.

Analysis of Political and Legal Models of Local Self-Government

This article is devoted to the theoretical analysis of political and legal models of the organization of local self-government and aims to identify the main components of the model of local self-government in Russia, as well as to identifying points of growth and development. The theoretical basis of the research was formed by the theory of free community, social and economic theory, state theory of local government, as well as the dualism theory. The existing models of local self-government: Anglo-Saxon, Continental, and German were analyzed. In addition to the analysis of local self-government concepts, examples of states applying different governance models were also considered. The analysis highlighted the key characteristics of each model, as well as some features of their application in the contemporary context. It was argued that an important element of local governance, which is recognized in each model, as well as in “mixed” models, is a high level of trust and participatory activity on the part of citizens. Having analyzed the theoretical foundations of local self-government, as well as the experience of applying different models of governance in different countries, the author came to the conclusion that the combination of principles of different concepts and models of local governance is relevant in the conditions of globalization, as well as changes in social and political institutions. Today, in young democracies, including Russia, public administrators, citizens, and public organizations face an important question in search of an optimal model of governance at the local level. Forming a sustainable and effective system of local selfgovernment supposes that the principle of individual approach to subjects and settlements can play a key role. The main importance here is the emphasis on the formation of practices of trust and civic participation. These are the key points of growth and development of the emerging model of local governance. The development of civic participation and trust contributes to the efficiency of budget spending, solidarity and responsibility of citizens and their interest in solving the problems of the local community.

Compensation and Benefits Survey 2019

Compensation and Benefits Survey 2019

The future incidence, prevalence and costs of stroke in the UK.

Backgroundwe project incidence and prevalence of stroke in the UK and associated costs to society to 2035. We include future costs of health care, social care, unpaid care and lost productivity, drawing on recent estimates that there are almost 1 million people living with stroke and the current cost of their care is £26 billion.Methodswe developed a model to produce projections, building on earlier work to estimate the costs of stroke care by age, gender and other characteristics. Our cell-based simulation model uses the 2014-based Office for National Statistics population projections; future trends in incidence and prevalence rates of stroke derived from an expert consultation exercise; and data from the Office for Budget Responsibility on expected future changes in productivity and average earnings.Resultsbetween 2015 and 2035, the number of strokes in the UK per year is projected to increase by 60% and the number of stroke survivors is projected to more than double. Under current patterns of care, the societal cost is projected to almost treble in constant prices over the period. The greatest increase is projected to be in social care costs—both public and private—which we anticipate will rise by as much as 250% between 2015 and 2035.Conclusionthe costs of stroke care in the UK are expected to rise rapidly over the next two decades unless measures to prevent strokes and to reduce the disabling effects of strokes can be successfully developed and implemented.

Pengaruh Kejelasan Sasaran Anggaran, Akuntansi Pertanggungjawaban, Dan Latar Belakang Pendidikan Terhadap Kinerja Manajerial Di Satuan Kerja Kementerian Perindustrian Padang

This study aims to 1) The extent to which the clarity of budget targets influences the management performance in the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry of Padang. 2) The extent to which responsibility accounting influences managerial performance in the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry, Padang. 3) The extent to which educational background influences managerial performance in the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry of Padang and 4) The extent to which clarity of budget targets, responsibility accounting and educational background influences simultaneously on managerial performance in the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry of Padang. In this study the design of this study is the Design of Causality. The data used are 1) primary, which is the answer to be analyzed for statistical testing purposes, 2) Secondary data, i.e. data needed to support this study were obtained from primary data, ie data obtained directly from the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry of Padang concerning clarity budget goals, accountability accounting, educational background and managerial performance. This means that together with the variables of the clarity of budget targets, accountability accounting and education affect managerial performance in the Work Unit of the Ministry of Industry, Padang.

Forecast in detail

The Spring Statement saw the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) make further favourable revisions to their forecasts, opening up the possibility of a loosening of fiscal policy in this autumn's Budget. However, the picture is clouded by forthcoming changes to the treatment of student loans in the public finances and the ongoing uncertainty over Brexit.

Macroeconomic Policy Beyond Brexit

Macroeconomic Policy Beyond Brexit

Tax and Spending in the 2020s

Tax and Spending in the 2020s

Forecast in detail

Some sizeable, favourable, forecast revisions from the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) allowed the Chancellor to announce a significant loosening of the fiscal stance in October’s Budget, while still maintaining the same margin for error against his fiscal mandate. However, forthcoming changes in the treatment of student loans in the public finances mean that the prospects of a further loosening in the fiscal stance look slim.

The Effects of Superior Trust and Budget-Based Controls on Budgetary Gaming and Budget Value

ABSTRACTControl systems based on budget-based incentives have long been criticized as promoting budgetary gaming that taints the budgeting process. Yet, Libby and Lindsay (2010) find that, on average, North American managers are obtaining “good” value from their budgeting systems. The current study examines the antecedents of budget value through a partial replication and significant extension of Van der Stede (2000) using survey data collected from a sample of senior business unit managers with budget responsibility. Results indicate that the senior manager's trust in subordinate managers' abilities exhibits a positive direct and indirect (through increased subordinate involvement in decision making) relationship with budget value. While budget emphasis has a negative indirect association with budget value (through budgetary gaming), it has a much larger positive direct relationship, resulting in an overall positive effect. Further, budgetary gaming increases with the use of budget-based bonuses, particularly for capped relative to non-capped plans.

A federalist’s dilemma: Trade-offs between social legitimacy and budget responsibility in multi-tiered welfare states

In multi-tiered states, subnational policymakers face a dilemma: on one hand, they must ensure the social legitimacy of their subnational unit by owning relevant policies including their potentially negative consequences; on the other, they have to manage their budget responsibly, which limits the scope of policy development. We study this dilemma in relation to social policies, by examining how the constituent units and municipalities in Germany, Italy, Spain and Switzerland deal with it, taking social assistance as an empirical example. Our analysis suggests that the combination of the federation’s history and a multinational political context affects the incentives and the choices made by the policymakers regarding ownership and disownership of policy competencies in the field of social assistance. By analysing mechanisms that are likely to play out in multi-tiered welfare states, our article contributes to both the social policy and the political science literatures.

Independent Fiscal Institutions in Comparative Constitutional Perspective

Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs), also known as independent budget offices, fiscal policy councils or independent fiscal watchdogs, have become a feature of the regulatory landscape since the global financial crisis. This paper analyses their proliferation and seeks to situate them in their constitutional and institutional environment. The paper begins with an assessment of the two competing rationales for their existence: first, the rationale of overcoming deficit bias in advanced western democracies (through institutions of de-politicisation), and second, the rationale of overcoming information asymmetry on two planes – elector/government fiscal information asymmetry and legislature/executive information asymmetry (strategies of re-politicisation). The paper then analyses the legal and technical design features of two IFIs: the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) and the Australian Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO). We hypothesise that whatever their origin, IFIs will seek to add functions, that these will include both inward-facing functions (e.g. official economic forecasting) and outward-facing functions (e.g. election policy costings), and that this expansion is likely to be facilitated by inter-party competition. We conclude that the IFI is best understood as a distinctive attempt to devise a fiscal self-binding mechanism in the interests of securing intergenerational constitutional justice.

Growing the Pie? The Effect of Responsibility Center Management on Tuition Revenue

ABSTRACTResponsibility center management (RCM) budgeting systems devolve budget responsibility while creating funding formulas that provide incentives for academic units to generate revenues and decrease costs. A growing number of public universities have adopted RCM. The desire to grow tuition revenue has often been cited as a rationale for adoption. Previous research has not assessed the effect of RCM on institution-level tuition revenue. Traditional regression methods that calculate “average treatment effects” are inappropriate because RCM policies differ across universities. This study employed a synthetic control method (SCM) approach. The SCM approximates the counterfactual for an RCM adopter by creating a synthetic control institution composed of a weighted average of nonadopters. The SCM estimates the effect of RCM separately for each adopter rather than estimating the average effect across multiple adopters. We used SCM to analyze the effect of RCM adoption on tuition revenue at 4 public research universities that adopted RCM during 2008 to 2010. We found a positive relationship between RCM and tuition revenue at Iowa State University, Kent State University, and the University of Cincinnati. The magnitude of this relationship was moderately large relative to placebo adopters. We found no relationship between RCM and tuition revenue at the University of Florida.

The eyes of the state: how central banks think

In November 2015, after weeks of bitter political rhetoric and much discussion about the consequences of the proposed changes, the UK Tory government reversed their decision to eliminate tax credits for the poorest. While much was made of this reversal, particularly who deserved responsibility for the change, a more subtle politics was going on behind the scenes. The primary justification for the reversal, given by the Chancellor George Osborne, was that tax revenues in forthcoming years were now expected to be much higher than before. Yet, a deeper look into this justification revealed that 55% of those extra revenues (£29.1 billion out of £52.2 billion) came from “modelling changes”. Suddenly, the discursive sparring over tax revenues found its material embodiment in the computers of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Similarly, central bank policies have become essential to the global economy since the 2008 crisis, and their policies concerning interest rates and quantitative easing are the joint product of hybrid human–computer systems. Yet, while scholars have examined the influence of modelling technology on derivatives valuation models, the field of central bank macroeconomic modelling has been largely ignored. This paper will examine these government economic models, outlining a broad history of their changing political ramifications. What are these models? How can they change the possibilities of government action so much? In addition, what effect do they have on politicians? Do they function merely as post-hoc justification for policies, or do they give shape to the space of the politically possible? The aim of this project is to begin answering these questions and generate a framework for understanding how economic modelling is shaping and interacting with economic policy.

Forecast in detail

November's Budget was framed by some sizeable, unfavourable, revisions to the Office for Budget Responsibility's (OBR's) forecasts for economic growth and borrowing. With the OBR having taken a more downbeat view of prospects for productivity growth, their forecast showed the level of GDP just over 2pp lower in 2021 than their March 2017 projection.

Autumn Budget 2017: An IEA Briefing

The Chancellor should resist calls to ramp up spending and focus instead on reducing the burden of tax and regulation. The economy has weathered the initial shock of Brexit much better than most had expected. Unemployment has continued to fall and inflation should peak soon, easing the pressure on real incomes. There is no need for a fiscal boost. What’s more, the public finances remain in poor shape. There is room for some small increases in spending on priority areas, partly funded by savings on contributions to the EU. Even on current plans, it will be at least a quarter of a century since the government last balanced the books. This Budget will have to consider more pessimistic assumptions about future productivity, made by the Office for Budget Responsibility. As it happens, the OBR may be chucking in the towel just as productivity is about to recover. But if the OBR is right, an extended period of lower growth will reduce the fiscal wiggle room. The Chancellor should ignore the temptation to address intergenerational inequality with tax breaks for younger people or a temporary cut in stamp duty for first-time buyers. Instead, the playing field should be levelled by tackling underlying problems that mainly affect the young, including the lack of housing supply, and by withdrawing subsidies which mainly benefit the elderly regardless of need. The Chancellor should resist calls to boost productivity with a splurge of public investment. Rather, he should focus on measures that free up the economy without spending enormous amounts of other people’s money, such as liberalising planning laws to facilitate housebuilding and devolving more fiscal powers to the regions. While there may be little margin for additional tax cuts, he should announce a fundamental review of taxes on property – including stamp duty – with the aim of dramatically simplifying the system. On Brexit, the Chancellor should emphasise the opportunities rather than just dwell on the risks. These opportunities include the scope to reduce trade barriers with the rest of the world and review regulations at home.