Budget Framework Research Articles

The Annual Cycle of Upper-Ocean Potential Vorticity and Its Relationship to Submesoscale Instabilities

AbstractThe evolution of upper-ocean potential vorticity (PV) over a full year in a typical midocean area of the northeast Atlantic is examined using submesoscale- and mesoscale-resolving hydrographic and velocity measurements from a mooring array. A PV budget framework is applied to quantitatively document the competing physical processes responsible for deepening and shoaling the mixed layer. The observations reveal a distinct seasonal cycle in upper-ocean PV, characterized by frequent occurrences of negative PV within deep (up to about 350 m) mixed layers from winter to mid-spring, and positive PV beneath shallow (mostly less than 50 m) mixed layers during the remainder of the year. The cumulative positive and negative subinertial changes in the mixed layer depth, which are largely unaccounted for by advective contributions, exceed the deepest mixed layer by one order of magnitude, suggesting that mixed layer depth is shaped by the competing effects of destratifying and restratifying processes. Deep mixed layers are attributed to persistent atmospheric cooling from winter to mid-spring, which triggers gravitational instability leading to mixed layer deepening. However, on shorter time scales of days, conditions favorable to symmetric instability often occur as winds intermittently align with transient frontal flows. The ensuing submesoscale frontal instabilities are found to fundamentally alter upper-ocean turbulent convection, and limit the deepening of the mixed layer in the winter-to-mid-spring period. These results emphasize the key role of submesoscale frontal instabilities in determining the seasonal evolution of the mixed layer in the open ocean.

Macroplastics in rivers: present knowledge, issues and challenges.

Macroplastics are the primary contributor to riverine plastic pollution by mass, posing a wide range of serious threats for riverine systems, from adversely affecting various life forms within the riverine system, to potentially increasing flood risk, and generally resulting in adverse effects on any livelihoods. Compared to other river-related research disciplines, research into riverine macroplastics and their effects has not yet featured prominently. Various quantification methods are presently used to assess the presence of macroplastics at different locations within river systems; however, overcoming limitations and unifying methods remain an essential need. Macroplastic dynamics in rivers are subject to various factors, including both material and river characteristics. We review the diverse factors that potentially influence macroplastic dynamics in rivers, and highlight our knowledge limits. We advocate for future research that enables synergies between improved field quantification techniques, use of global protocols and data sharing, and laboratory experiments. This is needed to obtain a riverine macroplastic budget model, required for the implementation of targeted management practices. Finally, a multilayer potential management strategy is presented: (i) reducing the macroplastic supply into rivers; (ii) removing effectively and safely macroplastics from within rivers; and (iii) treating macroplastics once removed from the riverine system.

New unconventional sources of information for transport analysis. The case of a model for public transport services in Majorca

Within a bidding process, a modelling of Majorca’s public transport was needed, within a framework of stringent budget and time limitations. The model required detailed information on tourist activities, which are a huge share of total mobility in summertime. Official data were not available with enough detail and some indirect sources of information were analyzed. TripAdvisor and Booking showed the highest potential: the former as an indicator of attraction and the latter as an indicator of trip generation. In total, 933,934 opinions for 198 nuclei from TripAdvisor, plus 2,114 accommodation assets for 51 Municipalities from Booking were used. These data were useful for the purpose and showed some potential for future analyses.

COVID-19 Vaccines: Saving Lives and the Global Stock Markets

Global stock markets react positively when different phases of human clinical trials on COVID-19 vaccines begin. The average abnormal stock return on the first day of the trials is both statistically and economically significant at 8.08 basis points. The increase in the average abnormal stock return is threefold higher for leading vaccine candidates. The positive reaction is more pronounced upon the start of phase III trials, and it is also stronger for vaccine candidates developed by the U.S. and China. To explain the findings, we use a simple capital budgeting framework and show that stock markets convey important information about market-wide expectations on vaccine development that evolves along with the pandemic.

The politics within institutions for regulating public spending: conditional compliance within multi-year budgets

Multi-year budget frameworks are often considered as instruments for controlling spending, including in the context of the European Union. This paper shows that the effects of multi-year budgeting depends on several conditions, some of which, may lead to more rather than less spending. The analysis is based on a model of a finance minister’s decision to enforce a previously accepted budget ceiling in subsequent negotiations with a spending minister. The analysis takes account of uncertainty about preferences in these negotiations, positive transaction costs to the finance minister, and the possibility of political mediation through the prime minister. The findings of this paper show that compliance with budget frameworks improves under temporarily stable preferences (e.g. the absence of external shocks), more homogenous preferences within the government (e.g. majoritarian governments in contrast to coalition government), preference similarity between the finance minister and the prime minister (in case of mediation), and increasing transaction costs. In other circumstances, multi-annual frameworks will not be able to block any upward pressure on expenditures.

STRENGTHENING MATERNAL AND CHILD PROGRAM IN INDONESIA THROUGH INTEGRATED PLANNING AND BUDGETING

Background: Indonesia applies decentralization policy in health sector. However, there are Health Minimum Service Standards (HMSS) that must be met at provincial and district level. In district level, there are 12 indicators that must be achieved include of maternal and child health with the coverage must be 100%. Nevertheless, there are various problems in achieving HMSS both quantity and quality aspect. This study aimed to determine the problems that were happened and determine alternative solutions in the implementation of HMSS especially in maternal and child sector.Methods: This research was done in three steps. The first step was conducted by Focus Group Discussion (FGD) with participant from many stakeholders in Central Java and Yogyakarta. This step aims to identify problems in the implementation of HMSS and develop the alternative solution. Second stage was developing the conceptual framework.Results: Based on the research, there are many problems in quantitative and qualitative aspects related to healthcare services. Program planning and budgeting is the main key to achievement HMSS. In second and third steps, an integrated planning and budgeting framework between multisector was obtained including problem identification, problem cause analysis, multisector identification, setting solutions and programs, planning and budgeting, and monitoring and evaluation. So that, there were no overlapping programs, less optimal, and lack of supervision and guidance.Conclusions: Integrated planning and budgeting was alternative solution to solve the implementation problem in HMSS especially in maternal and child aspect. However, strong commitment and monitoring was needed between stakeholder.

Il contratto di affiancamento e il subentro nell’azienda agricola

The legal framework of the State budget for the year 2018 in Italy provided for measures to encourage the training and development of young entrepreneurs in order to help in the transfer of new generations into agricultural business management. Young people, aged between eighteen and forty, my now enter into an agreement with agricultural entrepreneurs who are over sixty-five years old or retired, to cooperate and share the business profits. During the period of coaching the young person will have to acquire the necessary skills. The contract may provide for eventual takeover by the young agricultural entrepreneur of the management of the business. The author examines the compatibility of the new rules with the agrarian law, showing some weak points that the legislator should have considered.

Modeling the segment interactions of Ukraine’s financial market

This study is devoted to assessing the level of individual segments interconnectedness within the financial market of Ukraine (FMU) and their dynamics in uncertain conditions. The methodology of the systematic approach is used to investigate the dynamic relationship between individual segments of the financial market of Ukraine, namely credit (deposit-credit) market, stock market (market of securities), government securities market, currency market, and interbank market. The study of financial market dynamics focuses on the description of the price indicators of individual market segments, which are monitored using time series analysis and statistical methods. The results of the time series assessment revealed the fractal characteristics of the Ukrainian financial market as a measure of sustainability (namely inertia). It is revealed that all segments of the financial market, except credit, are characterized by persistence. It is established that the development of market segments is uneven and is characterized as bifurcation. The credit segment is addicted to insider behavior and has the highest risk concentration. It is revealed that the foreign exchange market is still in crisis. The results of modeling the correlation relationships between market segments have shown that, in the presence of such relationships, they differ in the strength and nature of the interaction. They are volatile, unstable, and situational, dependent on external conditions. The credit market has a relationship with other segments, not significantly strong but stable. The results of the analysis indicate the dynamic development of segments within the Ukrainian financial market in the presence of interconnections between them. AcknowledgmentThe study was conducted within the framework of the State Budget of the Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman on the topic “Innovative development of banking activities in the integrated financial environment” (state registration number 0117U001178).  

Evaluation of Public Tender Law Changes in Turkey in Context of Economic Sustainability

In today's economic system, the state has to make some purchases of goods and services to produce and offer the services of the public system formed by local administrations and other administrations. These purchases are the purchases that the public deems necessary through the private sector within the framework of investment programs and budget. Although annual growth and the tranches of spending items in investment programs change every year within the framework of the country's growth, purchases in the public system necessarily occur depending on these rates. Regulations and improvements on this subject; will not only affect the current levels of economic and social welfare, but will also increase the welfare levels of future generations and will support economic sustainability. The issue of public purchases regulated by law, which has become more important especially with its wide coverage in the Eleventh Development Plan, continues to contribute to economic sustainability with its value that directs the country's economy.
 In the study, literature reviews of public procurements, tender laws and related regulations which have a direct effect on the country's economy were conducted as method; and changes in the public procurements, tender laws and relevant legislation have been aimed to be revealed. Since the first law of 1925, in the four law amendments, some regulations have been made abiding by the main principles and the arrangements required by the country have been made. While the names of the procurement procedures change in the laws are partial, the main contents are preserved. The study examines the four procurement laws that have changed in this way; aiming to provide information on the subject and to address the forecasts that are realized with the support of the country's economy and sustainable development.
 
 Keywords: Tender law, public procurement legislation, economic sustainability, sustainable development, procurement procedures and implementing regulations

Mechanisms for Spatially Inhomogeneous Changes in East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation during the Mid-Holocene

AbstractThe East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensified during the early to mid-Holocene relative to the present primarily due to orbital forcing. However, on the regional scale, changes in the monsoonal precipitation exhibit considerable spatial disparity, and the underlying mechanisms remain unresolved. In this study, the dynamic processes responsible for the difference of the EASM precipitation between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period are systematically examined using the CMIP5 multimodel simulations. The moisture budget diagnostic identifies vertical motion as the key factor determining the cross-like precipitation pattern in East Asia. Relative to the preindustrial period, the mid-Holocene anomalous ascending motion corresponds well with the excessive precipitation over northern and southern China, and vice versa for west-central China, the Korean peninsula, Japan, and its marginal seas. In the framework of the moist static energy budget, the increased insolation and the attendant intensification of land–sea thermal contrast give rise to anomalous ascending motions, while descending motions are fundamentally forced by the decreased latitudinal insolation gradient. In particular, thermodynamic changes, namely, the reduced pole–equator temperature and humidity gradients, account for the downward motions over the northwestern Pacific. Dynamic changes, namely, the weakened westerlies, play a leading role in suppressing updrafts in west-central China. This study highlights that the orbital-scale monsoonal precipitation changes are not solely determined by local radiative forcing as repeatedly emphasized before. The latitudinal uneven distribution of insolation is crucial to explain the spatial inhomogeneity in the EASM precipitation changes during the Holocene.

The Royal Air Force: Budget Preparation, Control & Execution

This paper serves as a primer on the budgeting process of the Royal Air Force (the RAF-UK) and examines both the procedural elements of the RAF’s budget as well as its context within the overall UK budgeting framework. This serves to highlight the complexity of organizational budgeting for Air Force purposes, as well as the intricacy of various agents involved in budget-making, execution, and accountability. The paper also identifies major projects underway at the RAF and emphasizes the limitations of defence budgeting more generally.

Ukraine

Implementing strategic planning and a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) is a core component of Ukraine’s Public Financial Management (PFM) reform strategy. A pilot MTBF conducted in 2017 formed the basis for amendments to the Budget Code in December 2018, which firmly establish a MTBF as the basis for budget preparation. The amendments also establish a legal basis for related reforms, including regular spending reviews and monitoring and managing risks to public finances.

Ukraine

Ukraine has made good progress over the past three years in implementing reforms to strengthen medium-term budget planning and improve the quality of public spending. Following amendments to the Budget Code in late 2018, a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) has been adopted. A Budget Declaration, covering 2020 to 2022 was submitted to Cabinet, outlining medium-term fiscal prospects and expenditure ceilings for key spending units. To strengthen accountability and spending outcomes, multi-year performance targets for programs were included in the Budget Declaration and spending reviews have been initiated in five ministries. Still, there are several technical aspects of MTBF implementation that, if not handled carefully, have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of these important reforms.

Ukraine

To strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged medium-term budget framework (MTBF) as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21). A pilot MTBF exercise was launched for the 2018 budget cycle, which will inform the roll-out of a more complete MTBF in 2019. The development of the MTBF has been supported by several FAD technical assistance missions in recent years, including in April this year. The 2018–20 draft Budget Declaration, submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers on June 1, is a major step forward in terms of establishing a medium-term orientation to budget planning. For the first time, important elements of a MTBF were included in the budget documentation, including the presentation of detailed medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and expenditure ceilings for 2018–20.

The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions

Abstract. The amount of additional future temperature change following a complete cessation of CO2 emissions is a measure of the unrealized warming to which we are committed due to CO2 already emitted to the atmosphere. This “zero emissions commitment” (ZEC) is also an important quantity when estimating the remaining carbon budget – a limit on the total amount of CO2 emissions consistent with limiting global mean temperature at a particular level. In the recent IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ∘C, the carbon budget framework used to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 1.5 ∘C included the assumption that the ZEC due to CO2 emissions is negligible and close to zero. Previous research has shown significant uncertainty even in the sign of the ZEC. To close this knowledge gap, we propose the Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP), which will quantify the amount of unrealized temperature change that occurs after CO2 emissions cease and investigate the geophysical drivers behind this climate response. Quantitative information on ZEC is a key gap in our knowledge, and one that will not be addressed by currently planned CMIP6 simulations, yet it is crucial for verifying whether carbon budgets need to be adjusted to account for any unrealized temperature change resulting from past CO2 emissions. We request only one top-priority simulation from comprehensive general circulation Earth system models (ESMs) and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) – a branch from the 1 % CO2 run with CO2 emissions set to zero at the point of 1000 PgC of total CO2 emissions in the simulation – with the possibility for additional simulations, if resources allow. ZECMIP is part of CMIP6, under joint sponsorship by C4MIP and CDRMIP, with associated experiment names to enable data submissions to the Earth System Grid Federation. All data will be published and made freely available.

PROBLEMS OF PRICING IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC AND WAYS OF SOLUTIONS

The pricing system was based on the budget and regulatory framework of 1984. August 31, 1991 with the acquisition of independence of the Kyrgyz Republic began a new countdown and its history. Independence also influenced the pricing policy of the Kyrgyz Republic, as the Kyrgyz currency – som was introduced on may 10, 1993. Was chosen course 1 som to 200 rubles. Prior to the development of the new regulatory framework, price coefficients and price indices were used to convert prices into current prices. In this regard, it was decided to develop a new budget and regulatory framework that meets modern realities.

Republic of Poland

This capacity development mission follows on two earlier missions conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the International Monetary Fund. These missions covered the development of a Standard Chart of Accounts (SCoA) and the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) that are part of the wider Public Financial Management reforms the Polish government is implementing. These reforms will improve consistency in reporting and provide a stronger basis for understanding the financial position of the general government. It will also help attain the medium-term objective of reducing the structural deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2021. The mission commends the Polish Ministry of Finance (MoF), for the high level of commitment to the reforms. This commitment was evidenced in various actions and activities of government, including public pronouncements by the Minister of Finance. Also, the progress made with the implementation of the recommendations of the earlier missions was noted. Most notable was the establishment of the Budget System Reform (BSR)1 Project Governance Structures, the progress that various working groups have made with research on their respective topics, and the changes to the Budget Regulation of January 2019 to accommodate medium-term planning. This is supported by the high level of knowledge and expertise displayed by staff working on these reforms.

Estimating the Cost of Unemployment to Uganda’s Growth and Growth Trajectory 1980-2016: ‘an auto-regressive distributed lag modelling approach’

Over the years, there has been a considerable discourse around the cost as well as the nexus between unemployment and economic growth in both developing and developed countries. This relationship has remained an economic puzzle and to date, no conclusive position has been reached. The debate has continued to attract the attention of researchers, academicians and policy makers. From Uganda’s context, less effort has been invested in trying to unpack this phenomenon. This paper therefore, investigates the cost that unemployment actually imposes on the country’s growth performance as theoretically explained by the ‘Okun’s Law’. The study utilizes an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model on annual time series data for the period 1980-2016. The results reveal that Uganda loses approximately UGX 6.7 Trillion, an equivalent of USD 1.8 Billion annually due to the current unemployment rate. The cost is even higher when unemployment is re-estimated to exclude volunteers and unpaid family workers and adjusting the number of hours from one to five hours a week. In this case, the cost of unemployment rises to approximately UGX 60.3 Trillion, an equivalent of USD 16.3 Billion annually due to the current unemployment rate. In summary, the study finds that unemployment has a real cost to Uganda’s economic growth and growth trajectory and confirms Okun’s law in the country both in short and long run. In fact, the study reveals that, a one percentage point increase in unemployment rate costs Uganda’s growth an average of 0.067 percentage points annually. Using these findings to estimate the growth trajectory, the study results indicate that Uganda will attain the per capita income goal of USD 9500 in the year 2070 not 2040 if the current unemployment trend remains on its current course. The conclusion from the study is that, addressing unemployment problem should remain core and top in the country’s development agenda if the country is to achieve the targeted growth performance as signposted by the country’s Second National Development Plan (NDPII) and the Uganda vision 2040. The recommends the need to ensure integration of unemployment or employment concerns into the national planning and budgeting frameworks. Indicators to track the labour market functionality especially in regard to employment generation should be included in the results framework of the country’s national development plans (NDPs) and the national budgets; and more so, monitored and reported on an annual basis.

Dynamics of prices and consumption of anticancer drugs in Russia after their generics and biosimilars became available

Since generics and biosimilars have entered the Russian market of medications, there are new trends in the general picture of drug prices and consumption. In the present study, we analyze these trends to enable the prediction of possible savings or redistribution of funds in the area of anticancer drug supply, with a special view on highly expensive medications. The aim of this study is to identify changes in the market prices and consumption of medications for the treatment of solid tumors. Materials and methods . We analyzed the dynamics of prices and consumption rates of eight international non-proprietary names (INN) of anticancer drugs, whose generics or biosimilars entered the Russian pharmaceutical market in 2010-2018. Results. With an overall downward trend in prices, differences between individual drugs become apparent with time of joint circulation in the market. The rates of increase/decrease in the prices of the reference drugs that circulate together with generics/biosimilars for at least 4 years, have changed from -50 to +22%; for the respective generics/biosimilars, the figures ranged from -35 to -69%. After generics/biosimilars have entered the market in the Russian Federations, the consumption of the INNs have been increasing, but again with different paces for different drugs. Conclusion . With a general downward trend in prices and an increase in consumption of anticancer medications, there are significant differences in this dynamics as far as individual INNs are concerned. Additional studies are needed to identify factors having an impact on the prices and drug consumption of INNs after their generics/biosimilars have become available. For example, the number of original drugs with expired patent protection may be important. Without a good understanding of such factors, it is difficult to predict the size of savings and the possibility of their redistribution within the budget framework.

Theoretical and methodological principles of budget framework

Based on the scientific analysis of the theories and concepts developed by schools of financial thoughts, it is found that there is a high concern about a range of tools for government regulation, such as taxes, transfers, government expenditures, which are currently seen as elements of budget framework.The purpose of the study is to provide a scientific basis for the formation and functioning of budget framework as a system, its structure and properties; the subject of the research paper is to highlight theoretical and methodological principles for the formation and functioning of budget framework in relation to its impact on socio-economic development.The approaches to defining ‘budget framework’ introduced by domestic and foreign scholars are critically analyzed.Considering budget framework as part of state regulation of economy and taking into account its role in GDP distribution, budget framework is suggested to be viewed as a practical implementation of functions of the budget and a means of direct influence of state authorities and local self-government on socio-economic processes in order to ensure macroeconomic stability and improve social welfare.Through a systemic approach to the study of budget framework its components are identified. It is recommended to view them as a set of financial methods, forms, tools, and levers grouped in subsystems. As a result of their influence on distribution processes related to mobilization and utilization of budgetary funds, quantitative and qualitative changes take place in socio-economic processes and enhance socio-economic development and implementation of budget policy aimed at solving problems that arise.It is found that budget framework as a system is to be understood as a set of its components (subsystems – mechanisms for mobilization and utilization of budgetary funds; elements – financial methods, forms, tools, levers) and necessary links between them for achieving goals. The main features of budget framework seen as a system are distinguished and characterized: hierarchy, emergence, targeting, integrity, alternative ways of functioning and development, synergy, and functionality.It is substantiated that the formation and functioning of budget framework is impossible without legal, informational and organizational support.