Budget Deficit Research Articles

The importance of interregional investment projects in correcting the regional budget deficiency

Subject. This article discusses the issues of efficiency and competitiveness of the regional economy. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the mechanisms for the implementation of interregional investment projects in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of systems and comparative analyses. Results. The article finds that a set of developed measures aimed at optimizing financial and economic interaction between the regions will contribute to solving the problem of regional budget deficit. In particular, it is necessary to develop and implement methodological recommendations for determining the percentage of regional participation in joint projects and for assessing their effectiveness in terms of influencing regional budgets. Conclusions. It is necessary to create conditions for intensifying public-private partnerships at the regional level.

The general budget and its impact on the investment efficiency of the Iraqi economy for the period 2004-2022

In order to provide a stable and supportive environment for investment through public budget tools and variables, it is necessary to research methods that lead to stimulating investment operations and providing the necessary financing for economic activity. Total public revenues, total public expenditures, and the budget surplus or deficit have a significant impact on this. Total public revenues and public expenditures have a significant impact on the budget surplus or deficit, which in turn affects investment in the Iraqi economy. In the event of an increase in public revenues, such as an increase in oil or tax revenues, this will lead to an increase in the budget surplus. A higher budget surplus will provide the government with more financial resources to finance public investments and development projects. Achieving the appropriate environment accelerates economic growth and pushes investors to activate their activities, thus expanding their proceeds to form a development horizon and space that creates a broad developmental investment environment to demonstrate the investment opportunities available to investors. If public expenditures rise, such as increased spending on salaries and wages or government purchases, this will lead to an increase in the budget deficit. A high budget deficit will restrict the government's ability to allocate financial resources to finance public investments and development projects. This may negatively affect the investment climate and encourage investors to invest in the Iraqi economy.Therefore, it can be said that managing public revenues and expenditures in a balanced and effective manner has a significant impact on the budget surplus or deficit, which in turn directly affects investment levels in the Iraqi economy.The results of the standard model were obtained using the distributed slowdown autoregressive model (ARDL), which is considered one of the advanced standard methods, which relies on testing the stability of time series. This model gives results about the nature of the relationship in the short term (error correction model) as well as results for the long term. The research reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is after testing the soundness and... Stability of the estimated model for the variables. The first step after testing the stability of the variables is to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model for the function of total investments (Y) with lag periods (2) for the dependent variable (Y), the variable (X1) total public revenues as an independent variable, and the variable (X2) total Public expenditures are an independent variable, and the variable (X3) budget surplus is an independent variable. After conducting the model estimation process, we obtained the results for estimating the ARDL model, as the explanatory power of the estimated model was (R2 = 0.817), meaning that the independent variables included in the estimated model explain 81% of the changes in the variable. Follower. The estimated model also turned out to be significant, so the null hypothesis was rejected and the alternative hypothesis was accepted. Also testing the existence of a cointegration relationship between the variables of the model, i.e. the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship, by testing the limits.

Sustainability of lending diversification of sub-Saharan African low-income countries

The momentum in sub-Saharan low-income countries is leading to diversifying their funding sources to cover large infrastructure expenditures. This situation meets the expectations of international investors who are still willing to explore new opportunities. Recent access to the Eurobond market by these new players has resulted in the growing substitution of traditional concessional loans by market ones in countries with low-debt portfolios. Thus, a new sustainability approach is required to include risk premiums and potentially versatile investor behaviors. First, we use a theoretical model to show that in a context of low international interest rates, debtor countries can continue to stabilize their level of debt either through budget deficit, if it remains below a given sustainability threshold, or through budget surplus in a downturn context (high-interest rates and spreads). Second, the versatile behavior of investors could be challenging. Third, global liquidity greatly influences the debt dynamics of SSA countries so it matters more for bond spreads than domestic factors. As our empirical study shows that the current debt situation of sub-Saharan African low-income countries increasingly involved in the Eurobond market remains under control. To avoid the worst-case scenario, strong institutions should be a priority, along with appropriate management tools and methods of debt monitoring to cope with all potential vulnerability caused by undesirable side effects of such unstable behaviors.

An Empirical Analysis of Public Debt Sustainability in Kenya

The study provides a focused analysis of Kenya’s determinants of debt sustainability owing to its consistent budget deficits and higher debt servicing costs. Unlike broader studies, this research focuses on Kenya's unique economic conditions and talks about the consequences of unchecked debt servicing payment failures in Kenya that could undo macroeconomic progress if unchecked. The study deploys a single equitation regression analysis followed by a series of robustness checks and a generalized method of moments (GMM) technique to analyze the link for Kenya, 1990-2023. The regression results show that debt in Kenya is not sustainable, with factors such as an increase in debt stock, high-interest rate costs, increase in budget deficits, inflation rate increase and high depreciation of the local currencies ultimately wiping out the repayment potential of Kenya. However, the results show that increased export revenue earnings and faster economic growth can improve budget resources for debt servicing. Our findings suggest that policymakers in Kenya should focus on fiscal consolidation by reducing non-interest expenditures and enhancing revenue collections.

The Impact of Customs Revenues on The General Budget Deficit in A Middle East Country

This research aims to identify the concept of customs revenues and their impact on the state’s general budget deficit. The problem of the study stems from the following question: What is the impact of customs revenues on the general budget deficit in Iraq? To answer this question, this research uses the deductive approach and the estimation approach by analyzing and measuring the impact of customs revenues in supporting the state’s general budget. Among the most important results of the study are: There are many reasons that led to the emergence of a deficit in the state’s general budget throughout the study period, the most important of which is the decrease in Customs revenues as a result of the weak role of tax revenues It recommended the need to address the imbalance in the structure of public revenues by activating the role of taxes and fees and reducing dependence on the oil resource.

Unlocking the impact of international financial support to infrastructure, energy efficiency, and ICT on CO2 emissions in India

Financial resource constraints prevent developing nations from investing in the infrastructure needed for the green transition. For this reason, it is well known that numerous financial aid programs are offered globally, mainly to wealthy developing nations whose economies are predicated on high energy consumption. It hasn't been looked into if these resources are allocated to worthwhile projects. This study examines how foreign financial assistance in this area affects India's infrastructure emissions. The effects of natural resources, economic growth, information and communication technology, energy efficiency (oil and gas), and natural resources on the environment are being investigated as well. The novel multivariate quantile on-quantile regression technique is used in this context to examine a time-series data set spanning 2000–2021. According to the findings, there is a correlation between reduced carbon emissions and increased foreign financial aid. Likewise, advancements in energy efficiency and information and communication technologies also benefit the ecosystem. However, India's emissions are rising due to its abundant natural resources and economic expansion. Policy recommendations were made regarding the need for India to use international financial aid primarily to strengthen environmentally friendly infrastructure rather than solving problems such as current account deficit or budget deficit.

Fiscal Policy’s Function in Reducing Economic Downturn

Fiscal policy drives a nation’s economic activity by taxing and spending by the government. It is essential for preventing economic downturns. Generally, it operates as follows: A rise in government spending Business and consumer spending typically decreases during recessions, which lowers the economy’s total demand. The government can spend more on infrastructure, services, and public initiatives to make up for this. Quick economic stimulation results in more demand for goods and services as well as the creation of jobs. Tax Rebates: Lower taxes generate more cash for businesses and consumers alike. More money is available for both individuals and companies to invest in and expand their businesses. It is possible to counteract the drop in private sector demand by increasing spending and investment. Transfer Payments: The government may also raise transfer payments to pay for social security, unemployment insurance, and other welfare programs. These payments shield the purchasing power of those who are adversely affected by the recession and aid in stabilizing the economy. Automatic Stabilizers: Without the need for new legislation, some components of fiscal policy automatically promote economic stabilization. For instance, lower-class and impoverished households benefit from automatic stabilizers that reduce taxes in reaction to slower economic development and falling revenues. Unemployment insurance and progressive income taxes are two instances of these stabilizers. As a result, aggregate demand is sustained. Debt and Budget Deficits: During a recession, the government may have a budget deficit if expenditure exceeds revenue. This may lead to an increase in the national debt, but this is typically justified as a benefit to the economy. The theory is that the economy will eventually recover from the short-term debt increase due to the stimulus’s long-term impacts, improving the country’s financial situation. The Multiplier Effect: The economy may be impacted in a number of ways by the government’s increased expenditure and tax incentives. For example, when the government funds a new infrastructure project, the workers employed to complete it spend their earnings on goods and services, increasing demand and economic activity as well as the profits of themselves and other firms. Generally speaking, the goal of fiscal policy is to boost the economy during recessions in order to lessen their severity and hasten their recovery.

The Role of Financial Oversight in Enhancing the Efficiency of Public Spending in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This study aimed to determine the extent of the impact of financial control on the efficiency of public spending in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to regulate corruption, reduce waste of public funds, enhance transparency, and assess the effectiveness of current financial control legislation and agencies, and the procedures included therein, to understand their responsiveness, efficiency, and their impact on diversifying income sources, reducing unemployment rates, and their effect on economic growth through the analysis and study of international and local reports and indicators regarding financial control. Additionally, this study reviews the most distinguished international experiences in financial control and how to benefit from them to enhance the efficiency of control over the implementation of the general budget in the Kingdom. This study adopts the descriptive-analytical approach to reveal the effectiveness of current financial control over the public budget in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and its impact on the efficiency of spending, relying on three important indicators that represent the growth rate, unemployment rate, and diversification of income sources, through the review and analysis of international and local reports and indicators during the period covered by the Open Budget Index in the Kingdom, starting from 2008 to 2023. The study revealed the necessity of financially and administratively independent financial control agencies, granting them the necessary powers to carry out their tasks, making all administrative levels accountable, with the need for continuous updating of financial control legislation and laws in the Kingdom, activating what has recently been introduced of systems, working on integrating control agencies, in addition to the importance of exercising preventive control before preparing the budget to avoid budget deficit crises and preserve public funds. The researcher believes, through what has been discussed, that this study provides a valuable contribution to the development of financial control policies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP UKRAINE–EU: RETROSPECT AND CHALLENGES OF FURTHER ENHANCED COOPERATION

Ukraine has been a priority partner of the EU since the signing of the Association Agreement in 2014. It was the significant financial and economic support of the EU as a whole and, in particular, of individual EU member states that became a key tool for avoiding catastrophic consequences in the financial and economic system of our country at the beginning of a full-scale war and for the current financing of the state budget deficit. Today, the European Union's support for Ukraine is extremely significant, although it is accompanied by a number of problematic issues that require an in-depth study of certain aspects of economic partnership in terms of finding ways and directions to improve the use of the potential of bilateral economic relations with the European Union as a whole and with individual EU member states.The methodological basis of the study is based on general scientific and special methods of economic theory, in particular, methods of theoretical generalization and comparative analysis for a comprehensive consideration of the research issue, and statistical methods of analysis. In the course of the study, the statistical materials of the European Union and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine on foreign trade in goods were used.Modern scientific views on the content and prospects of Ukraine's economic partnership with the EU are studied. The key stages of the development of Ukraine's economic partnership with the European Union are summarized and schematized, with details of the areas of sectoral cooperation. The main indicators of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries are analyzed. The key obstacles to further deepening of the economic partnership are substantiated, the elimination of which should be the primary goal of our country on the way to European integration.The obtained results can serve for further study of trade relations and their role in the economies of the studied countries.

The Tunisian Economics’ Situations After the Revolution of Arab Spring 2011

The Tunisian economic facts after the so-called the Arab spring or social revolution have been marketed by numerous fluctuations and radical changes in the general situation of the management of the administrative affairs of the country. The most prominent of these facts, including the series of chaotic sit-ins and the political and security instability that has increased from 2011 to 2018, note in particular the emergence of the phenomenon of terrorism and assassinations. These negative results are too the expensive cost of the Tunisian national economy, which has been directed, affected by all vital sectors of the country’s economy, especially the tourism, trade and investment sectors. In addition, the increase in excessive wages during the first three years following the revolution and the increasing number of random sit-ins that led to the cessation of the production in the Gafsa phosphate mine and the failure to work for most of the public servants represented negative factors that led to a decline in productivity and an increase in the financial and trade deficit. Thus, the budget deficit and the accumulation of indebtedness represent the main obstacle to achieving social and economic stability.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations in Nigeria

The main objective of the study was to determine the way fluctuations in the price of crude oil affected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria from 2000 Q1 to 2022 Q4. The data was analysed in the paper using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. According to the findings, Nigeria's current economic growth has been significantly impacted by lag GDP values. This indicates that economic growth in Nigeria was significantly impacted by one-period lag GDP by 3,791.7 units in the short-run and 7,430.4 units in the long-run. Also in the short-run, the current broad money supply was significantly impacted by both the one-period lag general price level (0.445 units) and the one-quarter lag broad money supply (757.7 units). According to the crude oil price fluctuation model, current crude oil price variations in Nigeria are significantly influenced by one-period lags in general price level (-64.9 units), crude oil price fluctuation (1,114.6 units), and fiscal budget deficits (0.65 units). All of the one-period lagged coefficients of macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, broad money supply, interest rates, general price level, inflation rates, and fiscal budget deficits, had a significant impact on current economic growth and broad money supply, respectively, as demonstrated by the long-run economic growth and broad money supply models. The real GDP's impulse response to fluctuations in crude oil prices fell during the first period, peaked during the second, and then increased to show a positive trend during the third. This study came to the conclusion that shocks or fluctuations in the price of crude oil are the main cause of macroeconomic policy instability in Nigeria. The study recommended that the government should control foreign exchange rate regimes, pursue expansionary monetary policy, general price level control and stabilisation measures.

Holistic evaluation of energy transition technology investments using an integrated recommender system and artificial intelligence-based fuzzy decision-making approach

The most essential criteria should be determined in the selection of the suitable energy transition technologies due to budget deficit problem. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the most important criteria in energy transition technology selection. Therefore, a new study is needed to determine the most prominent issues in the correct selection of energy transition technologies. The purpose of this study is to identify the most appropriate energy transition technology alternative. Within this framework, a novel artificial intelligence (AI)-based fuzzy decision-making model has been presented. In the first part, the experts are prioritized by the help of AI methodology. In the next section, missing evaluations of energy transition technology investments are estimated via expert recommender system. Thirdly, the weights of the criteria for energy transition technology selection are computed by quantum picture fuzzy rough sets (QPFR) M-Stepwise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SWARA). At the final stage, selected energy transition technology alternatives are ranked via QPFR-Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR). The main contribution of this study is the integration of AI technique to the proposed model. Similar to this issue, using M-SWARA methodology in the process of criteria weighting increases the quality of the findings. This methodology helps to consider the impact relation map of the criteria. The findings demonstrate that the most important factor is cost-effectiveness of energy transition. Similarly, it is also found that the local ecosystem is the second most significant issue. On the other side, the ranking results denote that compact renewable systems for small scale production is the most optimal solution of energy transition technology alternatives.

Evaluation of the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Financial Performance of Manufacturing Companies: Implications of Interest Rates, Inflation and Macroeconomic Stability

This study aims to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on the financial performance of manufacturing companies in Indonesia, emphasising the implications of interest rates, inflation, and macroeconomic stability. Using a quantitative approach through multiple regression analysis, this study analyzes the relationship between monetary policy variables of Bank Indonesia's benchmark interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, and budget deficit with the company's financial performance, as measured using Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), and Net Profit Margin (NPM). Secondary data used in this study include the annual financial reports of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2015-2023. The study results indicate that the benchmark interest rate has a significant negative effect on ROA and ROE. In contrast, the inflation rate shows varying impacts on NPM and other financial performance. In addition, macroeconomic stability is measured through indicators of the rupiah exchange rate against the USD, foreign exchange reserves, and budget deficit, which significantly affect the company's financial performance. These findings emphasize the importance of monetary policy and macroeconomic stability in determining the profitability of manufacturing companies in Indonesia. This study implies that corporate management needs to develop more adaptive strategies to deal with fluctuations in monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions. In addition, policymakers need to consider the long-term impact of monetary policy on the manufacturing sector to create an economic environment conducive to industrial growth. This study contributes significantly to the literature on the impact of monetary policy on corporate financial performance in emerging markets.

One Health in two countries: The politics of transdisciplinary healthcare collaboration in Canada and the United States.

The One Health perspective highlights the potential synergies between the human, animal, and environmental health sciences, especially in an era of budget shortfalls, climate change, and emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin. Canadian physicians and veterinarians arguably lay the foundation of One Health in the late 19th century, when they pioneered the study of "comparative medicine" in Montreal, but they fell into disciplinary silos before World War I to the lasting detriment of the Canadian population. This article explores both the advantages and impediments to cross-disciplinary healthcare collaboration in Canada, highlighting the country's vast size, sparse population, and political decentralization in particular, and offers a number of policy recommendations that would allow the country to reclaim its rightful role as a leader in the One Health movement.

Government ideology and labour policy reform in good times and bad

ABSTRACT Which governments implement interventionist or liberalising labour policy reforms, and does the economic context matter? Drawing on the previous literature on government ideology and public policy, we hypothesise that leftist governments are more likely to implement interventionist labour policies. However, we also expect that economic circumstances influence parties’ room to manoeuvre, and we thus hypothesise that the impact of government partisanship on labour policy reform will be weaker during troublesome economic circumstances. The main contribution of this paper is empirical, in that we take seriously the ‘dependent variable problem’ of policy studies that look to aggregate measures to detect instances of retrenchment, by making use of a new dataset on the directionality of 1,446 individual labour reform measures enacted across 13 nations between 1978 and 2017, allowing us to compare government labour policy during periods of varying levels of budgetary deficit, employment, and debt levels. Our results show that left-wing governments implement more interventionist labour policies, but only during less economically ‘challenging’ periods – during dire economic circumstances, economic orthodoxy seems to trump ideology in governmental policy-making processes.

Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

This study was expected to investigate the impact of Budget Deficit on economic growth of Nigeria between 1983 and 2023. Ex – post facto research design was accepted; annual time series data for analyses were collected from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin of 2022. Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) was used as the explained or dependent variable proxy for economic growth. budget deficit (BDF), inflation (INF) and money supply (MS) all represent explanatory or independent variables. The study employed Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model which was used to analyzed and evaluate the coefficients of the model’s parameters. Other diagnostic tests employed by this study include; unit root test, descriptive statistics, correlation coefficient matrix, Cointegration test and test of Normality, and they confirmed the validity and reliability of the model used; the inferential results showed that budget deficits impacted significantly on the economic growth of Nigeria under the review period. The paper recommended strongly that the country should display a high degree of transparency in its fiscal policies or operations by directing its fiscal deficits present towards investments that will increase productivity such as building roads, providing electricity and encouraging Foreign Direct Investments (FDI). The paper equally recommended inflation targeting in order to achieve a non-inflationary trend economy purposely to achieve the macroeconomic goal of price stability. The policy makers should direct capital and financial resources of government toward targeted programs like employment opportunity in productive ventures.

Analysis of the Impact and Implications of the VAT Rate Increase in Indonesia

This study aims to find out how the impact felt by the community after the implementation of the VAT rate increase policy on individuals who act as end consumers, and business actors or MSMEs who act as distributors. The method used in the study is Systematic Literature Review (SLR) from various studies on the impact and implications of VAT rate increases in Indonesia. The results of the study show that VAT affects the price of goods and services in the market, increases production costs and selling prices, and worsens inflation. However, the increase in VAT rates can also increase government tax revenues, reduce the budget deficit, and stabilize the country's fiscal condition. In addition, the increase in VAT can affect consumer behavior and business investment, especially in the manufacturing, trade, and service industry sectors.

Empirical analysis of the twin deficits hypothesis in the republic of North Macedonia

The twin deficits hypothesis is widely considered one of the most frequently employed phenomena in the economic literature. An econometric analysis of the twin deficit hypothesis is of special importance in understanding the perspective on macroeconomic stability in the Republic of North Macedonia. This paper aims to empirically test the validity of this hypothesis in the Republic of North Macedonia. To do so, we utilized quarterly data on Macedonia’s budget deficit, the current account deficit, exchange rate, interest rate, GDP, government expenditure, and money supply, starting from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. Through the application of the ARDL model, the study found that between the variables taken into analysis, there exists a short and long-run relationship. More specifically exchange rate, government expenditure, and GDP result in improvement on the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run. While current account deficit, interest rate, and money supply result in worsening the budget deficit, both in the short run and long run.

PREDICTION OF CRUDE OIL PRICES IN INDONESIA USING FOURIER SERIES ESTIMATOR AND ARIMA METHOD

Crude oil is one of the non-renewable natural resources that is crucial for countries around the world in driving economic development. However, the availability of crude oil is decreasing over time. The high demand for crude oil results in scarcity which causes price fluctuations. Low oil prices can reduce state revenues, disrupt development programs, and even trigger budget deficits. On the other hand, an increase in crude oil prices can make a positive contribution to state revenues. Crude oil exports become more profitable, which can increase state revenue through royalties and taxes levied on the oil and gas sector. This additional revenue can be used to support infrastructure development, social programs, and investment in key sectors of the economy. High oil prices can also harm the economy. With the many impacts that can be caused by crude oil prices, the government must be able to anticipate and prepare for it. The data used in this study are data on crude oil prices in Indonesia for monthly periods from January 2018 to October 2023 sourced from the official website of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) of the Republic of Indonesia. The researcher tried to compare two analysis methods, namely the Fourier series and the ARIMA estimator. The results of this study show that the best method in predicting crude oil prices in Indonesia is the Fourier series estimator with Cos-Sin function which produces RMSE and MAPE values of 7.93 and 8.4%. The prediction results can be used as a reference for the government to anticipate and make programs or policies that are more focused and targeted toward the impacts that can be caused by changes in crude oil prices.

Что удалось сделать в сельском Татарстане за десять лет реализации системы самообложения населения

The budget deficit in municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan forces local authorities to search for additional sources of funding to solve the problems of rural settlements. One of the ways was the participation of rural municipalities in the development of a system of self-taxation for citizens. It has been implemented in Tatarstan since 2013. The article sets the task of assessing the effects of the self-taxation system in rural settlements of the republic, accumulated over 10 years of its operation. By analyzing the legislative framework of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Tatarstan, the author reveals the basic concepts and provisions used in the system of self-taxation of citizens. Using interviews he conducted in municipalities of the Republic of Tatarstan with heads, deputies, and activists of rural settlements, the experience of using and features of public participation in the self-taxation system over the past ten years was examined. It was revealed that the results of the implementation of the self-taxation system are expressed in an increased level of trust in it on the part of villagers, in almost one hundred percent collection of contributions, in the involvement of village residents in the formation of municipal budget plans, in increasing the civic responsibility of representatives of rural communities of Tatarstan. The “external” effect of the self-taxation system is expressed in the number of solved problems of local importance: repair and construction of rural roads, water supply, street lighting, improvement of cemeteries, monuments and obelisks, sites for garbage containers, sidewalks, embankments, springs, parks and public gardens. This list of work of conducted works, which is far from complete, using the villagers’ self-taxation system and through co-financing from the government bodies of Tatarstan, has significantly increased the level and quality of rural life in the republic.