Broadband Ground Motion Research Articles

Validation of Deterministic Broadband Ground Motion and Variability from Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Buried Thrust Earthquakes

Validation of Deterministic Broadband Ground Motion and Variability from Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Buried Thrust Earthquakes

Sensitivity Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Frame Structures Under Near-Fault Pulse-Like Ground Motions Using a Broadband Simulation Method

ABSTRACT The effect of pulse characteristic of near-fault ground motions on multistory reinforced concrete frame structures is investigated by means of a synthetic broadband ground motion model (SBGM). A simplified analytical pulse model is used to describe the low-frequency components of ground motions, while a stochastic simulation method based on wavelet packet is adopted to simulate the high-frequency components of ground motions. First, the time histories, response spectrum, and structural response of synthetic ground motions are compared with those corresponding to recorded near-fault ground motions. The good agreement indicates that the SBGM model used in this article is a suitable and efficient tool for evaluating the structural response. Sensitivity analysis on structural response of 2-, 4-, 8-, and 12-story building models to the SBGM model input parameters is then performed to identify the key ground-motion parameters which control the main structural response indicators, that is, interstory drift ratio and maximum interstory drift ratio. Final results indicate that the amplitude of velocity pulse in the SBGM model has a significant influence on structural drift demands. Nevertheless, for low-rise buildings, the maximum drift demands would effectively decrease with increasing proportion of high-frequency components. Moreover, the ratio of pulse period to structural fundamental period and number of oscillations impose a large drift demands to the structure under near-fault pulse-like ground motions.

Broadband Ground Motions from 3D Physics‐Based Numerical Simulations Using Artificial Neural Networks

Broadband Ground Motions from 3D Physics‐Based Numerical Simulations Using Artificial Neural Networks

Probabilistic Estimates of Ground Motion in the Los Angeles Basin from Scenario Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6–8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The unilateral rupture scenario earthquakes are hypothetically located at 6 locations spread out uniformly along the southern section of the fault, each associated with two hypocenters and rupture directions. Probabilities of occurrence over the next 30 years are assigned to each of these earthquakes by mapping the probabilities of 10,445 plausible earthquakes postulated for this section of the fault by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2–2.0 s) empirical Green’s function synthetics on top of long-period (>2.0 s) spectral element synthetics. The earthquake probabilities and the computed ground motions are combined to develop probabilistic estimates of ground shaking in the region from San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next 30 years. The results could be useful in city planning, emergency management, and building code enhancement.

Broadband (0–4 Hz) Ground Motions for a Magnitude 7.0 Hayward Fault Earthquake With Three‐Dimensional Structure and Topography

AbstractWe performed fully deterministic broadband (0–4 Hz) high‐performance computing ground motion simulations of a magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward Fault (HF) in the San Francisco Bay Area of Northern California. Simulations consider average one‐dimensional (1‐D) and three‐dimensional (3‐D) anelastic structure with flat and topographic free surfaces. Ground motion intensity measures (GMIMs) for the 3‐D model display dramatic differences across the HF due to geologic heterogeneity, with low wave speeds east of the HF amplifying motions. The median GMIMs agree well with Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs); however, the 3‐D model generates more scatter than the 1‐D model. Ratios of 3‐D/1‐D GMIMs from the same source allow isolation of path and site effects for the 3‐D model. These ratios show remarkably similar trends as site‐specific factors for the GMPE predictions, suggesting that wave propagation effects in our 3‐D simulations are on average consistent with empirical data.

Revisiting the 1995 MW 6.4 Aigion, Greece, earthquake: Simulation of broadband strong ground motion and site response analysis

The 1995 MW 6.4 Aigion earthquake is one of the largest and most destructive seismic events that have occurred in Greece over the past few decades. The ground shaking in the near-fault region was recorded by a strong-motion accelerograph in the city of Aigion, at a distance of about 16km from the epicenter. The recorded horizontal ground acceleration exceeded 0.5g, whereas the horizontal components of ground velocity exhibited pulse-like motions of large amplitude. These ground-motion characteristics have been attributed to forward rupture directivity combined with the effects of soil and topography. In this article, broadband synthetic ground motions are generated at selected locations and at a dense grid of observation points extending over the causative fault of the 1995 Aigion earthquake using a hybrid deterministic-stochastic method. The low-frequency components of the synthetic ground motion are simulated using the discrete wavenumber method and the generalized transmission and reflection coefficient technique, whereas the high-frequency components of the synthetic ground motion are generated using the stochastic modeling approach and the specific barrier model. The two independently derived ground-motion components are then combined using matched filtering at a crossover frequency of 2Hz to generate broadband ground-motion time histories and response spectra. The effects of soil and topography on the simulated ground motion in the city of Aigion are also investigated through site response analysis. In addition, the strong motion recorded at Aigion is corrected for crustal anisotropy using the cross-correlation technique, thus further enhancing the alignment of recorded and synthetic ground-motion time histories. Finally, the synthetic ground motions are compared with ground-motion estimates obtained from observed geotechnical damage, USGS ShakeMaps, and ground-motion prediction equations.

Broadband ground-motion simulation of the 24 May 2014 Gokceada (North Aegean Sea) earthquake (Mw 6.9) in NW Turkey considering local soil effects

On 24 May 2014, a Mw 6.9 earthquake occurred in the west of Gokceada Island, northern Aegean Sea. The earthquake was close to Canakkale, Enez, Tekirdag cities, and damaged 300 buildings in the Marmara Region, NW Turkey. We simulated its broadband (0.1–10 Hz) ground motions including 1D deep and shallow structures soil amplification effects at the 12 strong ground motion stations in the western Marmara Region. The 1D deep velocity structures from the focal layer to the engineering bedrock with an S-wave velocity of 0.78 km/s in different azimuthal directions were tuned by comparing the observed group-velocity dispersion curves of Rayleigh and Love waves from the mainshock with theoretical ones. We also added the shallow parts from previous surveys into the 1D models. Synthetic seismograms on the engineering bedrock were generated using the discrete wave number method with a source model and the 1D deep velocity structures. Then the surface motion was generated considering shallow soil amplification. The synthetic seismograms are generally in good agreement with the observed low and high-frequency parts at most of the stations indicating an appropriateness of the source model and the 1D structural model.

Broadband Ground Motion Simulation of the 2004 and 1977 Vrancea, Romania, Earthquakes Using Empirical Green’s Function Method

We estimated the parameters of strong motion generation areas and simulated broadband ground motions for the moderate October 27, 2004 (M w 5.8) and damaging March 4, 1977 (M w 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth subduction earthquakes using the empirical Green’s function method. The method allows the simulation of ground motions in a broadband frequency range by summing up the subevent records, corresponding to small magnitude events in the near-source areas, which are assumed to follow the source-scaling relationship and the omega-square source spectral model. We first estimated the strong motion generation area that reproduces near-source ground motions in a broadband frequency range of 0.3–10 Hz for the 2004 earthquake, by fitting the synthetic acceleration, velocity, and displacement waveforms to the observed data. The source properties of the obtained strong motion generation area are in agreement with the predictions made using an empirical source scaling relationship for crustal earthquakes, implying a stress drop of approximately 10 MPa for the 2004 earthquake. We then modeled the strong motion generation area for the 1977 damaging earthquake using the 2004 earthquake as an empirical Green’s function and constructing a source model based on its estimated source parameters. To simulate the unique record at Bucharest, capital city of Romania, the rupture was assumed to have propagated from the northeast bottom of the strong motion generation area having a stress drop of 50 MPa. Broadband ground motion simulations were further compared in terms of the modified Mercalli intensity values, calculated from the peak ground accelerations and peak ground velocities of synthetic waveforms, with the observed Medvedev–Sponheuer–Karnik intensity values. Our estimates of the source properties for the 2004 and 1977 Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes support the size-dependent stress drop.

Physics-Based Hazard Assessment for Critical Structures Near Large Earthquake Sources

We argue that for critical structures near large earthquake sources: (1) the ergodic assumption, recent history, and simplified descriptions of the hazard are not appropriate to rely on for earthquake ground motion prediction and can lead to a mis-estimation of the hazard and risk to structures; (2) a physics-based approach can address these issues; (3) a physics-based source model must be provided to generate realistic phasing effects from finite rupture and model near-source ground motion correctly; (4) wave propagations and site response should be site specific; (5) a much wider search of possible sources of ground motion can be achieved computationally with a physics-based approach; (6) unless one utilizes a physics-based approach, the hazard and risk to structures has unknown uncertainties; (7) uncertainties can be reduced with a physics-based approach, but not with an ergodic approach; (8) computational power and computer codes have advanced to the point that risk to structures can be calculated directly from source and site-specific ground motions. Spanning the variability of potential ground motion in a predictive situation is especially difficult for near-source areas, but that is the distance at which the hazard is the greatest. The basis of a “physical-based” approach is ground-motion syntheses derived from physics and an understanding of the earthquake process. This is an overview paper and results from previous studies are used to make the case for these conclusions. Our premise is that 50 years of strong motion records is insufficient to capture all possible ranges of site and propagation path conditions, rupture processes, and spatial geometric relationships between source and site. Predicting future earthquake scenarios is necessary; models that have little or no physical basis but have been tested and adjusted to fit available observations can only “predict” what happened in the past, which should be considered description as opposed to prediction. We have developed a methodology for synthesizing physics-based broadband ground motion that incorporates the effects of realistic earthquake rupture along specific faults and the actual geology between the source and site.

Near-Fault Broadband Ground Motion Simulations Using Empirical Green’s Functions: Application to the Upper Rhine Graben (France–Germany) Case Study

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on databased ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French–German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green’s function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k −2 kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi- EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k−2 model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling.

Physics‐Based Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulations for ProbableMw≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Marmara Sea Region (Turkey)

Abstract The city of Istanbul is characterized by one of the highest levels of seismic risk in the Mediterranean region. An important source of such increased risk is the high probability of large earthquake occurrence during the coming years, which stands at about 65% likelihood owing to the existing seismic gap and the post‐1999 earthquake stress transfer at the western portion of the North Anatolian fault zone. In this study, we simulated hybrid broadband time histories from selected earthquakes having magnitude M w >7.0 in the Sea of Marmara within 10–20 km of Istanbul, the most probable scenarios for simulated generation of the devastating 1509 event in this region. Physics‐based rupture scenarios, which may be an indication of potential future events, are adopted to estimate the ground‐motion characteristics and its variability in the region. Two simulation techniques are used to compute a realistic time series, considering generic rock site conditions. The first is a full 3D wave propagation method used for generating low‐frequency seismograms, and the second is a stochastic finite‐fault model approach based on dynamic corner‐frequency high‐frequency seismograms. Dynamic rupture is generated and computed using a boundary integral equation method, and the propagation in the medium is realized through a finite‐difference approach. The results from the two simulation techniques are then merged by performing a weighted summation at intermediate frequencies to calculate a broadband synthetic time series. The simulated hybrid broadband ground motions are validated by comparing peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral accelerations (5% damping) at different periods with the ground‐motion prediction equations in the region. Our simulations reveal strong rupture directivity and supershear rupture effects over a large spatial extent, which generate extremely high near‐fault motions exceeding the 250 cm/s PGV along the entire length of the ruptured fault.

Accidental eccentricity in symmetric buildings due to wave passage effects arising from near‐fault pulse‐like ground motions

SummaryThis article investigates the characteristics of the accidental eccentricity in symmetric buildings due to torsional response arising from wave passage effects in the near‐fault region. The soil–foundation–structure system is modeled as a symmetric cylinder placed on a rigid circular foundation supported on an elastic halfspace and subjected to obliquely incident plane SH waves simulating the action of near‐fault pulse‐like ground motions. The translational response is computed assuming that the superstructure behaves as a shear beam under the action of translational and rocking base excitations, whereas the torsional response is calculated using the mathematical formulation proposed in a previous study. A broad range of properties of the soil–foundation–structure system and ground motion input are considered in the analysis, thus facilitating a detailed parametric investigation of the structural response. It is demonstrated that the normalized accidental eccentricity is most sensitive to the pulse period (TP) of the near‐fault ground motions and to the uncoupled torsional‐to‐translational fundamental frequency ratio (Ω) of the structure. Furthermore, the normalized accidental eccentricities due to simplified pulse‐like and broadband ground motions in the near‐fault region are computed and compared against each other. The results show that the normalized accidental eccentricity due to the broadband ground motion is well approximated by the simplified pulse for longer period buildings, while it is underestimated for shorter period buildings. For symmetric buildings with values of Ω commonly used in design practice, the normalized accidental eccentricity due to wave passage effects is less than the typical code‐prescribed value of 5%, except for buildings with very large foundation radius. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Accounting for Fault Roughness in Pseudo-Dynamic Ground-Motion Simulations

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω-2 decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation.

Physics-based seismic input for engineering applications: a case study in the Aterno river valley, Central Italy

In this paper, we present 3D physics-based numerical simulations, in the near-source region at the regional scale, of the 2009, April 6, L’Aquila earthquake (central Italy), based on improved models of the Aterno river basin geology and source kinematics. The simulations were carried out by an open-source code, SPEED, based on a discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. The numerical mesh of the Aterno basin was built on a detailed subsurface geological model and on the evaluation of the dynamic properties of the soils. The source model was selected among the kinematic solutions available in the literature as the one that fits best the near-source observations. Broadband ground motions were then generated through a hybrid method, combining 3D low frequency waveforms with high-frequency stochastic synthetics. To provide an example of application as seismic input to earthquake engineering analyses in the time domain, results of this approach were used for 2D site response analyses at Castelnuovo, a village severely damaged by the earthquake, and in the neighborhood of which no seismic record was available. SPEED simulation satisfactorily reproduces the recorded accelerograms in the frequency range 0.1–0.7 Hz. The site response analysis at the local scale shows that the amplification of the hill is more significant at its natural frequency, due to topographic and stratigraphic factors, than at the peak of the seismic input simulated by SPEED, that is at about 3 s along the fault-normal component. The presented application supports the conclusion that 3D physics-based numerical simulations do have the potential to become an alternative for determination of input ground motion for earthquake engineering analyses, especially for those scenarios for which real records are not available.

Physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis using broadband ground motion simulation: a case study for the Prince Islands Fault, Marmara Sea

The main motivation for this study was the impending occurrence of a catastrophic earthquake along the Prince Island Fault (PIF) in the Marmara Sea and the disaster risk around the Marmara region, especially in Istanbul. This study provides the results of a physically based probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) methodology, using broadband strong ground motion simulations, for sites within the Marmara region, Turkey, that may be vulnerable to possible large earthquakes throughout the PIF segments in the Marmara Sea. The methodology is called physically based because it depends on the physical processes of earthquake rupture and wave propagation to simulate earthquake ground motion time histories. We included the effects of all considerable-magnitude earthquakes. To generate the high-frequency (0.5–20 Hz) part of the broadband earthquake simulation, real, small-magnitude earthquakes recorded by a local seismic array were used as empirical Green’s functions. For the frequencies below 0.5 Hz, the simulations were obtained by using synthetic Green’s functions, which are synthetic seismograms calculated by an explicit 2D/3D elastic finite difference wave propagation routine. By using a range of rupture scenarios for all considerable-magnitude earthquakes throughout the PIF segments, we produced a hazard calculation for frequencies of 0.1–20 Hz. The physically based PSHA used here followed the same procedure as conventional PSHA, except that conventional PSHA utilizes point sources or a series of point sources to represent earthquakes, and this approach utilizes the full rupture of earthquakes along faults. Furthermore, conventional PSHA predicts ground motion parameters by using empirical attenuation relationships, whereas this approach calculates synthetic seismograms for all magnitudes of earthquakes to obtain ground motion parameters. PSHA results were produced for 2, 10, and 50 % hazards for all sites studied in the Marmara region.

Effects of wave passage on torsional response of symmetric buildings subjected to near-fault pulse-like ground motions

This article investigates the effects of wave passage on the torsional response of elastic buildings in the near-fault region. The model of the soil-foundation-structure system is a symmetric cylinder placed on a rigid circular foundation supported on an elastic halfspace. The idealized model is subjected to obliquely incident plane SH waves simulating the action of near-fault pulse-like motions. The response of the structure is assessed in terms of the relative twist between the top and the base of the superstructure. A parametric analysis of the maximum relative twist as a function of the input parameters of the seismic excitation and soil-foundation-structure system is performed to identify the parameters that control the torsional response of buildings due to wave passage in the near-fault region. It is shown that the torsional response is most sensitive to a key parameter of the near-fault ground motion referred to as “pulse period”. Specifically, large rotations are observed when the pulse period is close to the torsional period of the structure. It is also demonstrated that the wave passage effects are controlled by the wave apparent velocity, rather than the local site conditions. Furthermore, broadband near-fault ground motions from three hypothetical earthquakes of different magnitude are generated, and the torsional responses due to the simplified pulse-like and broadband ground motions are compared against each other. The results show that the simplified pulse model that describes the coherent seismic radiation is able to represent the main features of the near-fault ground motions that cause large torsional response. The maximum relative twist at resonance is found to be ~10−3rad, a value that is consistent with the upper bound of rotations in structures reported in the literature.

Broadband Ground‐Motion Simulation Based on the Relationship between High‐ and Low‐Frequency Acceleration Envelopes: Application to the 2003Mw 8.3 Tokachi‐Oki Earthquake

We present a new approach for broadband ground‐motion simulation that is a combination of high‐frequency (HF, f >0.5 Hz) and low‐frequency (LF, f <0.5 Hz) ground‐motion simulations. In this method, the LF ground motion is first computed by a deterministic approach based on a velocity model and a source model. Then, the HF acceleration envelopes are computed by multiplying the LF envelopes by envelope ratio functions (ERFs), which are defined as the empirical relationships between the characteristics of envelopes of different frequency bands. We apply the method to the 2003 Tokachi‐Oki, Japan, earthquake ( M w 8.3). The LF ground motion is computed by a finite‐difference method with a 3D velocity model and a finite‐fault slip model. Because of the complicated rupture process of the earthquake, the fault is divided into subfaults that can be considered as smaller earthquakes. ERFs are estimated by investigating the ground‐motion data of moderate‐size aftershocks (5.4≤ M w≤6.6) for each station. The HF ground motions are simulated using the LF ground motion and the ERFs. Seismograms of all frequency bands are summed to give a time series of broadband (0.05–16 Hz) ground motion. We find that our method yields realistic broadband ground motion, in terms of the acceleration envelope, velocity waveform, and Fourier amplitude spectrum. Comparing the HF waveforms with those computed by the stochastic Green’s function method (SGFM), we find that the performance of our method is better than that of the SGFM under the condition that LF waveforms are appropriately computed. The proposed method has the potential to be used as a practical method for broadband ground‐motion prediction incorporating the effects of a 3D velocity model and a finite‐source model. Online Material: Figures comparing simulated and observed low‐frequency waveforms and root mean square acceleration envelopes in different frequency ranges.

Broadband Strong Ground Motion Simulations of Large Subduction Earthquakes

The great subduction earthquakes that occurred recently in Peru, Chile, and Japan have provided unprecedented information about the ground motions generated by such earthquakes. The 23 June 2001 M 8.4 Peru earthquake was recorded at eight strong-motion stations; the 27 February 2010 M 8.8 Maule, Chile, earthquake was recorded at over 10 strong-motion stations; and the 11 March 2011 M 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake was recorded at more than a thousand stations and produced the most extensive dataset of recordings for any earthquake. For the first time, data are available to guide the generation of ground-motion simulations from great subduction earthquakes. Broadband ground-motion simulations can enhance the usefulness of the recordings of these earthquakes by providing a means of interpolating and extrapolating the recorded data. Once they have been validated, broadband ground-motion simulations can be used for forward predictions of the ground motions of great subduction events in regions such as Cascadia, in which there are no strong-motion recordings of large subduction earthquakes. In this study, we test our ability to use a hybrid method to simulate broadband strong-motion recordings of megathrust earthquakes by demonstrating that our simulations reproduce the amplitudes of the recorded ground motions without systematic bias. We use simulations to study the distribution of various intensity measures of ground motion caused by these earthquakes and to validate our ground-motion simulation method by comparing the simulated ground motions with recorded ground motions as well as with empirical ground-motion prediction models.

Evaluation of Hybrid Broadband Ground Motion Simulations for Response History Analysis and Design

Chapter 16 of ASCE 7 governs the selection of ground motions for analysis of new buildings and requires recordings that meet specified criteria. If a sufficient number of recordings cannot be found, it allows the use of “appropriate simulated ground motions,” but does not provide further guidance. This paper outlines a procedure for generating and selecting a set of “appropriate” hybrid broadband simulations and a comparable set of recordings. Both ground motion sets are used to analyze a building in Berkeley, California, and the predicted structural performance is compared. The structural behavior resulting from recordings and simulations is similar, and most discrepancies are explained by differences in directional properties such as orientation of the maximum spectral response. These results suggest that when simulations meet the criteria outlined for recordings in ASCE 7 and properties such as directionality are realistically represented, simulations provide useful results for structural analysis and design.

Broadband Ground Motions from Dynamic Models of Rupture on the Northern San Jacinto Fault, and Comparison with Precariously Balanced Rocks

The Southern California San Jacinto fault is geometrically complex, consisting of several major strands with smaller scale complexity within each strand. The two northernmost strands, the Claremont and the Casa Loma–Clark, are separated by a 25‐km‐long extensional stepover with an average of 4 km separation between the strands. We use a combined modeling method to assess probable rupture and ground‐motion behaviors for this stepover. First, dynamic rupture modeling on geometrically complex fault strands embedded in a state‐of‐the‐art 3D crustal velocity model is used to generate a series of scenario earthquakes. We then use the resulting near‐fault low‐frequency (<1 Hz) ground‐motion time histories to generate broadband synthetic seismograms with a hybrid approach. These synthetics are then compared with a distribution of precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) near the fault to constrain our results and assess shaking hazard for the region surrounding the fault. Our dynamic models produce sources between M w 5.4 and 6.9, with rupture limits imposed by sharp contrasts in fault stress or by geometrical barriers. The main stepover serves as a primary barrier to rupture in our model, producing event sizes that are consistent with the historical behavior of the San Jacinto fault. The largest broadband synthetics are a good match to leading ground‐motion prediction equations and are generally consistent with the distribution of PBRs, none of which experience accelerations that produce toppling probabilities significantly higher than zero. Thus, although the PBRs do not rule out any of our model scenarios, they confirm that our models produce realistic rupture extents and shaking. Online Material: Figures of total slip for additional rupture models, low‐frequency intensity plots, synthetic seismograms, and comparison with ground‐motion prediction equations.