British Sheep Flock Research Articles

Longitudinal study of antimicrobial use patterns, vaccination and disease prevalence in British sheep flocks.

The aim of the study was to describe the longitudinal dynamics of antimicrobial use (AMU) on sheep farms and explore associations between AMU and management factors, vaccination strategies, reproductive performance and prevalence of lameness. Antimicrobial supply data were collected for 272 British sheep farms for 3-6 consecutive years between 2015 and 2021. These data were obtained from the farms' veterinary practices. Annual median AMU ranged from 8.1 to 11.8mg/kg population corrected unit. AMU was skewed in each year with a small proportion of very high users. AMU within farms varied substantially between years. High AMU farms in 1 year were not necessarily high in other years. No associations between AMU and either vaccine usage or lameness prevalence were found. The study design requires veterinarians and farmers to volunteer their data. This unavoidably introduces the potential for a participation bias. AMU on sheep farms is generally low, with a small number of farms being responsible for high usage. Targeting antimicrobial stewardship effort towards the small minority of persistently high users may be more appropriate than a focus on generic, industry-wide attempts to reduce overall AMU.

Multiple model triangulation to identify factors associated with lameness in British sheep flocks

Identification of factors associated with an outcome can be challenging when the number of explanatory variables is large in relation to the number of observations. Multiple model triangulation, where results from several model types are combined, improves the likelihood of identifying true predictor variables. The aim of this study was to use triangulation to identify covariates likely to be truly associated with the prevalence of lameness in sheep flocks in Great Britain.Data were collected using a questionnaire sent to 3200 sheep farmers in Great Britain in 2018. The useable response rate was 14.1 %. The geometric mean prevalence of lameness was 1.4 % (95 % CI 1.2−1.7) for ewes, and 0.6 % (95 % CI 0.5−0.9) for lambs, however, approximately 60 % flocks had >2% prevalence of lameness in ewes.Four model types were investigated, two generalised linear models (negative binomial and quasi-Poisson) built using stepwise selection, and two elastic net models (Poisson and Gaussian distributions) refined with selection stability estimation.Triangulated covariates were those selected in three or all four models – 10 for ewes and 12 for lambs. Higher prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming compared with not foot trimming, footbathing the flock to treat severe footrot (SFR) and always using formalin in footbaths, both compared with not footbathing, using FootVax™ for <1 year compared with not using FootVax™, and never quarantining new or returning sheep to the farm for >3 weeks compared with always. Lower prevalence of lameness in ewes was associated with vaccinating with FootVax™ for >5 years compared with not vaccinating, peat soil compared with no peat soil, and having no lame ewes to treat.Higher prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with 5−100% feet bleeding during routine foot trimming, always foot trimming ewes with SFR, not knowingly selecting replacement ewes from ewes that were never lame compared with always, replacement sheep purchased and homebred compared with only homebred, treating lambs >3 days after recognition of lameness compared with 0-3 days and footbathing the flock to treat interdigital dermatitis compared with not footbathing at all. Lower prevalence of lameness in lambs was associated with peat soil, flocks in Scotland versus England, an altitude of >230−500 m compared with ≤230 m, never using antibiotic injection to treat lambs with SFR compared with always, and having no lame lambs to treat.We conclude triangulation identified reliable management practices for farmers to implement to minimise lameness in sheep.

Quantitative analysis of antibiotic usage in British sheep flocks

The aim of this study was to examine the variation in antibiotic usage between 207 commercial sheep flocks using their veterinary practice prescribing records. Mean and median prescribed mass per...

A model for the control of psoroptic mange in sheep

SHEEP scab became a common cause of animal suffering and production loss in British sheep flocks leading up to and following the deregulation of its statutory control in 1992 (Rose...

PrP genotype: A flock-level risk factor for scrapie?

Previous epidemiological studies of risk factors for classical scrapie at flock level have identified a variety of management and purchase related variables, along with increased flock size and, in some cases, breed effects. Although known as a risk factor at the individual animal level, PrP genotype frequencies at flock level have not yet been studied. In an unmatched case–control study, three measures of flock-level prion protein (PrP) frequency estimates were investigated with respect to the scrapie status of the flock in 293 British sheep flocks (195 control flocks and 98 case flocks). Flocks with positive frequencies (more than 0 per cent) of two genotypes (VRQ/VRQ and AHQ/VRQ), large frequencies (more than 10 per cent) of the ARR/VRQ genotype, and large frequencies (more than 5.2 per cent) of the VRQ allele were at increased odds of being affected with clinical classical scrapie. When adjusted for flock size, breed and sampling strategy the genotype and allele effects remained, except that for flocks with positive frequencies of VRQ/VRQ. The known effect of increased risk with increased flock size was confirmed. A measure of the flock PrP genotype frequency profile should thus be included in studies of risk factors for scrapie. It could also be integrated into risk-based surveillance strategies for identification of “at-risk-of scrapie” flocks.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep: II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep: I. Assessing the impact on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies

From April 2005, member states of the European Union were required to implement a compulsory breeding programme for resistance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep as part of measures to eradicate TSEs from national flocks. In this paper, we assessed the impact of four different breeding strategies on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies using a mathematical model which describes in detail gene flow in the British sheep flock. These strategies ranged from the minimum requirements laid down in by EU legislation to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP) ram genotyping scheme. All four strategies were predicted to substantially reduce the frequency of the VRQ allele, which is associated with the highest risk of scrapie, although schemes with more stringent requirements produced a larger reduction. However, there were marked differences in the impact of the strategies on the frequency of other PrP alleles. In particular, restrictions beyond those required by EU legislation were necessary to change the frequency of other PrP alleles substantially. Consequently, a breeding programme which aims to reduce the risk to human health by reducing the frequency of the ARQ allele (associated with the highest risk of BSE in sheep) must place restrictions on ARQ-bearing animals. Similarly, a programme which seeks to increase the frequency of the ARR allele (associated with the lowest risk of TSE) must favour ARR-bearing animals.

Simulation of the options for a national control programme to eradicate scrapie from Great Britain

Because of the risk to public health posed by the potential presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep, there are plans to eradicate transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) from the British sheep population. We used a mathematical model for the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks to assess the efficacy of five control strategies at eradicating the infection from the national flock. These range from ram-genotyping schemes through whole-flock genotyping with selective culling to whole-flock slaughter. The impact of control was considered under three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie in GB: two in which scrapie is ultimately eliminated (with different median extinction times) and one in which scrapie remains endemic. Results suggested that it is feasible to eradicate scrapie from the British sheep flock, but that any national control programme will take decades to eliminate the disease and be costly. The most-effective strategy, measured in terms of the probability of eradication and time taken for eradication, was predicted to be whole-flock culling, which was effective under all three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie. Strategies involving whole-flock genotyping with selective culling were also effective, though they were predicted to take longer to eradicate scrapie than whole-flock culling. Ram-genotyping schemes were effective in some instances, but not for the scenario where scrapie remained endemic in the national flock. At low levels of reporting of clinical disease (<20%) the probability of eradication within 100 years was predicted to be <100% and, consequently, low levels of reporting could compromise the effectiveness of a control programme. Moreover, the predicted time taken to eradicate scrapie would increase markedly if the reporting compliance decreased.

A modelling framework to describe the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain

My aim was to develop a stochastic, spatial model describing the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain; I wanted a model, which could subsequently be used to assess the efficacy of different control strategies. The structure of the model reflects the demography of the British sheep flock, including a description of the contact structure between flocks. The dynamics of scrapie were incorporated through two probabilities associated with each flock: of acquiring infection and of experiencing a within-flock outbreak following exposure. The acquisition of infection depends on whether or not a flock buys-in sheep and, if it does, whether or not it trades with an affected flock. Once a flock is exposed, the probability of a within-flock outbreak occurring and its duration depend on the basic reproductive number, the prion-protein (PrP) genotype profile and the flock size. The model was validated using regional data from two postal surveys conducted in 1998 and 2002, which demonstrated that the model captures the spatial dynamics of scrapie (at least at a regional level). Moreover, the predicted distribution for the duration of a within-flock outbreak reflects the duration of outbreaks reported in the literature. Using the model to predict long-term trends in the proportion of affected flocks suggested that, even without control measures beyond the removal of animals with clinical signs, scrapie ultimately will disappear from the national flock, though it is likely to be decades before the disease is eliminated. However, there were scenarios consistent with the available data which suggested that scrapie could remain endemic within the British sheep flock. Consequently, it is essential to take this uncertainty in the long-term dynamics of scrapie into account when considering the efficacy of control strategies. Although control strategies were not explicitly examined, the model suggests two aspects important for control: larger flocks remain affected for longer and provide infection for other, smaller flocks and animal movements must be traceable.

Estimating the human health risk from possible BSE infection of the British sheep flock.

Following the controversial failure of a recent study and the small numbers of animals yet screened for infection, it remains uncertain whether bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was transmitted to sheep in the past via feed supplements and whether it is still present. Well grounded mathematical and statistical models are therefore essential to integrate the limited and disparate data, to explore uncertainty, and to define data-collection priorities. We analysed the implications of different scenarios of BSE spread in sheep for relative human exposure levels and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) incidence. Here we show that, if BSE entered the sheep population and a degree of transmission occurred, then ongoing public health risks from ovine BSE are likely to be greater than those from cattle, but that any such risk could be reduced by up to 90% through additional restrictions on sheep products entering the food supply. Extending the analysis to consider absolute risk, we estimate the 95% confidence interval for future vCJD mortality to be 50 to 50,000 human deaths considering exposure to bovine BSE alone, with the upper bound increasing to 150,000 once we include exposure from the worst-case ovine BSE scenario examined.