British Household Panel Survey Research Articles

Analysis of mixed correlated overdispersed binomial and ordinal longitudinal responses: LogLindley-Binomial and ordinal random effects model

ABSTRACT We propose a new model called LogLindley-Binomial and ordinal joint model with random effects for analyzing mixed overdispersed binomial and ordinal longitudinal responses. A new distribution called the LogLindley-Binomial is presented, which is appropriate for the analysis of overdispersed binomial variables. A full likelihood-based approach is used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates. A comparison between LogLindley-Binomial and Beta-Binomial distributions are given by a simulation study. Also, to illustrate the utility of the proposed model, some simulation studies are conducted. In simulation studies, the performances of the LogLindley-Binomial distribution and the proposed model are well in some situations. Also, the new model's performance for analyzing a real dataset, extracted from the British Household Panel Survey, is studied. The proposed model performs well in comparison with another model for analyzing real data. Finally, the proposed distribution and the new model are found to be applicable for analyzing overdispersed binomial and mixed data.

Fuel Poverty: Potentially Inconsistent Indicators and Where Next?

The measurement of fuel poverty is critical for judgements about the significance of the problem and the design of policies to address it. Reducing fuel poverty has been a government objective in the UK for many years, and is generally seen through the lens of the government’s official fuel poverty statistics . We compare the households identified as fuel poor according to three metrics: (i) the 10% indicator; (ii) the Low Income High Consumption indicator; and (iii) whether households self-report an inability to afford to keep their home warm, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. We find substantial differences in the households identified according to each of these indicators; this highlights a lack of clarity about which households might be considered truly fuel poor. In particular, a surprisingly low proportion of those identified by the 10% and LIHC indicators report an inability to afford to keep their home warm. While this could raise concerns that current fuel poverty policies in the UK are misdirected, instead we emphasize the difficulties of drawing policy conclusions from the differences between the indicators, unless it can be combined with information on households’ heating preferences and the in-home temperatures achieved.

Monetary Policy Transmission to Consumer Financial Stress and Durable Consumption

We examine the effects of monetary policy on household self-assessed financial stress and durable consumption using panel data from eighteen annual waves of the British Household Panel Survey. For identification, we exploit random variation in household exposure to interest rates generated by the random timing of household interview dates with respect to policy rate changes. After accounting for household and month-year-of-interview fixed effects, we uncover significant heterogeneities in the way monetary policy affects household groups that differ in housing and saving status. In particular, an increase in the interest rate induces financial stress among mortgagors and renters, while it lessens financial stress of savers. We find symmetric effects on durable consumption, mainly driven by mortgagors with high debt burden or limited access to liquidity and younger renters who are prospective home buyers.

Explaining the U-shaped life satisfaction: dissatisfaction as a driver of behavior

We assess the age profile of subjective well-being by adopting a bio-evolutionary perspective that dissatisfaction is a psychological incentive to prompt adaptive behaviors. In particular, we scrutinize the age profile of baseline satisfaction, i.e., the level of overall life satisfaction after removing the impact of socioeconomic factors. Drawing from the life history literature that studies life-cycle characteristics of evolutionarily adaptive behaviors, we predict that, in the reproductive period, (1) baseline satisfaction is lowest, (2) the impact of the lack of income on life satisfaction is largest, and (3) the impact of the absence of a suitable reproductive partner on life satisfaction is largest. To test these hypotheses, we apply two regression models using the British Household Panel Survey. The results are consistent with the hypotheses. While the first model supports all three hypotheses, the second model supports the first two hypotheses with no contradictory results found for the third hypothesis. In particular, the results demonstrate that baseline satisfaction is U-shaped in age with the lowest point in one’s thirties to early forties, that the impact of income is largest in one’s late thirties to early forties, and that the impact of having a satisfactory spouse/partner is largest in one’s early thirties. These results highlight the importance of studying baseline satisfaction for understanding the gross level of overall life satisfaction, which includes the impact of all socioeconomic factors, as the baseline level affects the gross level through its impact on behaviors.

Neighbourhood Effects, Social Capital and Young Adults’ Homeownership Outcomes in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACT Many housing researchers and policymakers assume that homeownership remains the tenure of choice for many individuals and their households in the UK and internationally. Housing affordability concerns and access to mortgage finance have taken centre stage in the debate about the declining prospects for young adults to enter homeownership. Yet, some recent studies have questioned how well we understand other factors that combine to shape housing and tenure outcomes for young adults. We specifically ask whether different combinations of neighbourhood effects, homeownership path dependency and social capital influence tenure transitions for young adults. We provide estimates using multi-level mixed-effects logistic regression models using the British Household Panel Survey 2001-15 for Great Britain. We find evidence to support the argument that these specific effects help to shape housing and tenure outcomes for young adults, albeit with socialization within the family appearing to have a stronger effect in comparison to neighbourhood socialization.

Specific symptoms of the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ) in predicting persistence of psychological distress: Data from two prospective cohort studies

Persistent psychological distress is more harmful than transient psychological distress, but little is known about the development of persistent distress. We examined whether some specific symptoms of the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) were more important than others in predicting the persistence of psychological distress over a 3-year follow-up period among individuals who had at least moderate psychological distress at baseline (GHQ≥3). Participants were from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS; n = 6430) and British Household Panel Survey (BHPS; n = 5954). Sense of worthlessness, loss of self-confidence, loss of sleep over worry, and feelings of strain were associated with increasingly persistent distress. General happiness, feelings of unhappiness or depressed mood, and enjoyment of activities showed no such increasing associations. Symptoms of social functioning (capability of making decisions, concentration problems, feelings of usefulness, ability to face problems) showed some but not consistent associations. These results suggest that feelings of worthlessness, loss of self-confidence, loss of sleep over worry, and strain may be particularly important markers for persistent psychological distress.

Enhancing Democracy: Can Civic Engagement Foster Political Participation?

ObjectiveThe aim of the present article is to address Tocqueville's hypothesis that voluntary associations and volunteering are breeding grounds for democratic virtues and skills and thus enhance political participation.MethodsData from the British Household Panel Survey data set spanning the years 1991–2008 are analyzed using multivariate panel data regression techniques to assess the effect of voluntary association membership/activities on political participation in the United Kingdom.ResultsIt is found that organizational activity (more than mere membership) positively impacts political participation, but these effects are smaller than usually found and depend on types of associations and degree of activity. Sensitivity analyses support the finding that the political interest more strongly predicts political party support than associational activities. Further support for causal interpretations is scant.ConclusionSome evidence for Tocqueville's hypothesis can be found for the United kingdom during the sample horizon, but the effect is sensitive to model specification and issues of reverse causation remain.

Health status and willingness-to-pay estimates for the benefits of improved recycling rates: evidence from Great Britain

Waste management is a challenging task around the globe. Waste disposal and recycling have important implications, not only for environmental preservation, but also for the public health, well-being, the economy and sustainable development. However, little is known about the impact of the recycling rates on public health and the willingness to pay to increase recycling. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship among household income, recycling rates and health status and to estimate the marginal willingness-to-pay (MWTP) in Great Britain. The empirical analysis relied on data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) over the period 1999–2009. We estimated the impact of recycling rates and income on health status and we calculated the monetary value for a unit increase in recycling. To solve for the endogeneity issues, coming from possible reverse causality and omitted-variable bias, we implemented two instrumental variables (IV) approaches. First, we applied the Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and second, we estimated a Pooled Ordered Probit model. We found that for one percent increase in recycling rates, the average MWTP was estimated between £290 and £340 per annum. Furthermore, our results show that other determinants play an additional significant role on health status, such as the employment and marital status, the age, education level and meteorological conditions. While the study provides insights about the MWTP, future studies regarding the costs of providing recycling services may offer additional useful information to help the policy makers in the decision-making process.

No gain in pain: psychological well-being, participation, and wages in the BHPS

Accounting for endogeneity, unobserved heterogeneity, and sample selection in an unified framework, we investigate the effect of psychological well-being on wages and labour market participation using a panel from the British Household Panel Survey. We find the effect of psychological well-being on labour market outcomes to differ across gender. In particular, psychological distress significantly reduces participation across genders, but, conditional on participation, has a significant negative effect on hourly wages only in the female sample.

Understanding Society at 10 Years

AbstractUnderstanding Society: The UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) has now been collecting a range of data from its nationally representative sample of participants for 10 years. This significant ‘birthday’ offers a moment to reflect on its contribution to sociological research, and on its current and future potential for fundamental and cutting-edge sociological analysis. While the study shares many features with other longer-standing household panel studies, including its direct predecessor the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS), it incorporated from the outset distinctive features that make it particularly valuable for analysis in specific fields, including biosocial research, ethnicity and migration studies, and analyses of the interplay between environmental, social and institutional contexts and individual characteristics. Understanding Society has incorporated methodological development and innovation since its inception, which has facilitated more extensive forms of data collection.

The informativeness of estimation moments

SummaryThis paper introduces measures for how each moment contributes to the precision of parameter estimates in generalized method of moments settings. For example, one of the measures asks what would happen to the variance of the parameter estimates if a particular moment was dropped from the estimation. The measures are all easy to compute. We illustrate the usefulness of the measures through two simple examples as well as an application to a model of joint retirement planning of couples. We estimate the model using the British Household Panel Survey, and we find evidence of complementarities in leisure. Our sensitivity measures illustrate that the estimate of the complementarity is primarily informed by the distribution of differences in planned retirement dates. The estimated econometric model can be interpreted as a bivariate ordered‐choice model that allows for simultaneity. This makes the model potentially useful in other applications.

Testing for measurement error in survey data analysis using paradata

Summary Paradata refers to survey variables which are not of direct interest themselves, but are related to the quality of data on survey variables which are of interest. We focus on a categorical paradata variable, which reflects the presence of measurement error in a variable of interest. We propose a quasi-score test of the hypothesis of no measurement error bias in the estimation of regression coefficients under models for paradata. We also propose a regression-based test, analogous to a simple test proposed by Fuller for instrumental variables. The methods developed can take account of a complex sampling design. In an application with data from the British Household Panel Survey, all tests provide clear evidence of measurement bias in the estimated coefficient of gross pay. In a simulation study, all tests have rejection rates close to the nominal level under the null hypothesis; the quasi-score tests display more power than the regression-based test. The size of the quasi-score test is shown to be robust to some forms of misspecification of the paradata model, both by a theoretical argument and in findings of the simulation study.

Parental social class and school GCSE outcomes: two decades of evidence from UK household panel surveys

ABSTRACT This paper investigates social class inequalities in English school qualifications. The analytical focus is pupils’ outcomes in General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs). The original aspect of this paper is the operationalisation of data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS), which facilitates analyses from 1991 to 2013. We observe a general trend of improved educational outcomes in more recent cohorts of school pupils, which is consistent with national results. The central empirical finding is that there is a persistent social class gradient. Pupils growing up in families in less advantaged social classes have less favourable school GCSE outcomes. This is especially concerning, because having fewer good GCSEs is likely to limit children’s participation in more advanced education and restrict their options in the labour market. Changes in the structure and content of GCSEs lead us to conjecture that sociological analyses of social class inequalities in school qualifications will continue to be important. We highlight the limitations of using administrative educational data, and we outline the data resources that would better facilitate the study of social class inequalities.

Ageing and cohort trajectories in mental ill-health: An exploration using multilevel models.

Analyses of health over time must consider the potential impacts of ageing as well as any effects relating to cohort differences. The British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and Understanding Society longitudinal studies are employed to assess trends in mental ill-health over a 26-year period. This analysis uses cross-classified multilevel models in an exploratory, non-parametric approach to evaluate age and cohort effects net of each other. Mental ill-health evidences an initial worsening trend as people age which then reverses and exhibits improvement in late-middle-age, before declining again in the latter stages of life. There were less defined cohort trends. The modelling technique also reveals the relative importance of the temporal contexts in relation to inter- and intra-individual effects on mental ill-health, demonstrating that the ageing and cohort dimensions explain little variation compared to these more dominant within and between influences. Ultimately, we suggest that researchers would benefit from wider use of this exploratory modelling strategy when evaluating underlying health trends and more research is now needed to explore potential explanations of these baseline trajectories.

Was the mid-2000s drop in the British job change rate genuine or a survey design effect?

The year-on-year job change rate fell sharply, from 18% in 2005 to around 13% in 2006, according to British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) estimates. This fall coincides with the introduction of dependent interviewing to the BHPS, intended to reduce measurement error and improve consistency. Estimates from models of job change misclassification (Hausman et al., 1998) show that reduced measurement error cannot account for the fall in the job change rate. This suggests that the fall was genuine.

Health, subjective financial situation and well-being: a longitudinal observational study

BackgroundAn individual’s financial situation is a key contributor to their overall well-being. Existing research has examined the direct economic consequences of changes in health upon out-of-pocket healthcare expenditure, participation in the labour force and potential earnings. There is also research exploring an individual’s concern about their subjective financial situation regardless of the level of their income or work status on their health. In contrast, this paper conducts a causal analysis of the effects of general and mental health on an individual’s subjective evaluation of their financial situation controlling for their work status and income. This is of importance because current health policy in the United Kingdom (UK) stresses the role of health as an asset which can mediate the wider flourishing of individuals. Moreover, subjective financial situation comprises a key component of well-being now being measured and sought in social welfare policy.MethodsFixed effects instrumental variable panel data regression analysis is applied to 25 years of longitudinal data, from 1991, drawn from the harmonised British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and Understanding Society Survey (USS).ResultsImproved general health and reduced mental illness both improve the subjective financial situation of males and females. However, these affects diminish across older cohorts of males and females.ConclusionsInvesting in and improving general and mental health can improve the subjective financial situation and hence well-being of individuals. The targeting of health also needs to take account of an individuals’ life-stage.

The interaction between personality and health policy: Empirical evidence from the UK smoking bans

We investigate whether responses to the UK public places smoking ban depend on personality. Drawing on individual level panel data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) we exploit variation in the timing and location of these bans to establish their overall effect on smoking outcomes, and how this differs by personality. We measure personality using the Big Five personality traits. We are particularly interested in conscientiousness, given the evidence that it is a good proxy for self-control. Overall, we find that a one standard deviation increase in conscientiousness leads to a 1.4 percentage point reduction in the probability of smoking after the ban. Notably, this is the only Big Five personality trait that interacts with the smoking ban. This finding is very robust to different specifications.

Understanding the role of policy on inequalities in the intergenerational correlation in health and wages: Evidence from the UK from 1991-2017.

Social mobility is high on the policy agenda and is an important component of reducing inequalities. Estimating the relationship across generations of multiple dimensions of mobility such as health and wages can be used to understand the current state of mobility. However, there has been little research on how policy impacts on the relationship of multiple outcomes across generations and how that may be contributing to health inequalities and long-term mobility. In this paper, we use the UK as a case study to evaluate the impact of three distinct policy periods: 1991-1998 (Increasing neo-liberalism); 1998-2009 (English Health Inequalities Strategy); 2010-2017 (Austerity) on the relationship across generations in health (self-assessed health (SAH) and mental health measured by General Health Questionnaire 12 (GHQ-12)) and hourly wages. We employ fixed effects models on data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) and its successor the Understanding Society Survey (2009-2017). To investigate the role of policy on inequalities, sub-group analysis is performed by parental socioeconomic status measured by parental educational attainment, parental occupation, and if a single parent household. Results show that for the population on average, a changing policy focus has no impact on the strength of the relationship across generations in both health and wages. However, when looking at sub-groups the strength of the relationship in SAH and wages is increasing for parents with basic and higher qualifications and their young adult children. Whereas the influence of parents on their young adult children's SAH, mental health, and wages has remained fairly constant over the period 1991-2017 for parents with manual occupations and professional occupations. There has been a slight weakening in the influence of parents on their young adult children's SAH and wages for single parent families from 2010.

Family planning in a life‐cycle model with income risk

SummarySeveral US states have recently restricted the access to abortions. We study fertility intentions and how family planning and abortions are used as mechanisms to control fertility among couples facing income risk. We formulate and estimate a life‐cycle consumption‐saving model with uninsurable income risk and imperfect contraceptive control that matches fertility behavior in the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) well. We use the estimated model to investigate how family planning and abortions are used to control fertility in our model. Our simulations suggest that income risk affects family planning and that abortion is used to control fertility due to the presence of income risk. This indicates that the availability of abortions might play a role as an insurance mechanism.

A new career in a new town. Job search methods and regional mobility of unemployed workers

Labour mobility is critical for adjusting imbalance between local labour markets. Yet, labour markets appear still very localized. Existing studies on job search report that the choice of search methods influences job outcomes, with social contacts accounting for a substantial fraction of job matches. Whether search methods are conducive to local or national jobs has not been examined yet. This paper establishes a link between job search and regional mobility, investigating the impact of search methods on unemployment exits within and across local labour markets. The effect of search methods is estimated by a Propensity Score Matching approach, using data from the British Household Panel Survey. Results show that only direct approach to employers enhances the job hazard with regional move. Conversely, social contacts and advertisements are found to increase the hazard to local employment, although the effect of social contacts wears off as the unemployment spell prolongs. No impact is found by Employment Agencies on either exit. These findings suggest that the widespread use of social contacts, while enhancing job matches in the local labour market, might contribute to restrict labour mobility. Therefore, they bear support to policies promoting diffusion and efficacy of alternative methods, particularly when the target is long-term unemployment. Results also point out the opportunity of reforms of the job search assistance and placement service offered by Employment Agencies, taking these limitations into account.