BRI Countries Research Articles

Retraction: The usage of spatial econometric approach to explore the determinants of ecological footprint in BRI countries.

Retraction: The usage of spatial econometric approach to explore the determinants of ecological footprint in BRI countries.

Retraction: Greening the BRI countries through economic and political reforms.

Retraction: Greening the BRI countries through economic and political reforms.

Measuring the Non-linear Effect of Chinese Investment Flows on the Sustainable Environment of BRI Countries: Evidence from the Lens of Asymmetric Approaches

Measuring the Non-linear Effect of Chinese Investment Flows on the Sustainable Environment of BRI Countries: Evidence from the Lens of Asymmetric Approaches

Trade-offs and synergies pattern evolution of ecosystem structure-resilience-activity-services (SRAS) in the Belt and Road Initiative region

This study develops an analytical framework comprising “ecosystem pattern – trade-off and synergy process – multidimensional response mechanism – future risk management” to investigate the evolution of trade-off and synergy patterns of SRAS performance and its sustainability among BRI nations and 80 representative cities. The synergistic levels of SRAS in BRI countries declined, but will increase in the future, the increased trend of BRI cities will transfer to decline in the future. The interaction of multi-dimensional human urban activities could achieve a stronger impact on SRAS performance synergies of BRI countries and cities, and the PD-LU and PD-ED were the dominant interaction influence chains, respectively. This study was the first one to holistically reveal the evolution of trade-off and synergy patterns of SRAS performances, at both nation and city levels, in the BRI region. It also contributes new perspectives from the BRI region to the sustainable urban planning, terrestrial ecosystems conservation, and urban ecological governance programs.

Environmental Degradation in BRI Countries: Navigating the Role of Natural Resources, Green Energy and Green Finance

This study examines the role of natural resources, green energy and green finance in influencing environmental degradation using the data of 105 BRI countries from 2001 to 2021. For data analysis, different panel data estimation approaches, i.e., cross-sectional dependence tests, slope homogeneity tests, panel cointegration tests, FGLS and PCSE models, and DH causality tests, are used. The outcomes of CIPS and CADF tests display that the variables ED, GDP, NR, and GF are stationary at level, whereas GE and TR are stationary at I(1). The Westerlund and Pedroni cointegration tests confirm the long-run cointegration in a model. Furthermore, the FGLS model validates the EKC framework in BRI countries. The findings also show that green energy and green finance are critical for reducing CO2 emissions in BRI countries. The study also shows that natural resources are augmenting the CO2 emissions in BRI countries. Therefore, based on the study outcomes, it is concluded that BRI countries should promote green finance and green energy to enhance environmental quality.

Linkages between environmental sustainability, disaggregated emission, renewable energy, and energy efficiency: An evidence from BRI countries.

This paper examines the long-term and short-run causative relationship among environmental sustainability, energy efficiency, renewable energy and carbon emissions from all over sources (coal, oil and fossil fuels) and sector wise division (heat and power, transportation, residential, manufacturing and other sectors. The empirical evidence presented in this study is derived from a balanced panel dataset spanning the annual periods from 2000 to 2021. The dataset specifically focuses on a selection of BRI Countries. The Kao test demonstrates the presence of cointegration across variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, environmental suitability, energy efficiency and renewable energy. The Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PMG-ARDL) model indicates a statistically significant positive association between the environmental sustainability and disaggregated CO2 emissions over a long-term period. The study found a positive relationship between disaggregated CO2 emissions and environmental sustainability and energy efficiency, with renewable energy sources reducing emissions. It suggests a need for a structural transition from an energy-intensive economy to a decarbonized one, with sectors like heat and power positively impacting sustainability. Implementing measures to reduce emissions is crucial for tackling climate change.

The spatial pattern, driving factors and evolutionary trend of energy cooperation and consumption in the “Belt and Road Initiative” countries

Controlling the sustained growth of energy consumption is a common concern worldwide. This research focuses on energy consumption in the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) countries, which play a crucial role in shaping the global energy market, to enhance energy cooperation among them. Our methodology involves analyzing the spatial-temporal energy cooperation pattern among these countries, identifying the main drivers, and forecasting the future scale and structure of energy consumption in each BRI country. The results show that: (1) Following the “Belt and Road Initiative”, energy cooperation among BRI countries has been strengthened, with Poland, the Russian Federation, and India playing more vital roles in this cooperation network; (2) Affluent level and energy intensity are the main drivers of energy consumption. The former contributes to the growth of energy consumption and is relatively more important in developing BRI countries, while the latter shows adverse effects, especially in more developed BRI countries. Population scale also contributes to the growth of energy consumption, but its effect is minor and diminishing; (3) Future energy consumption in BRI countries shows an overall upward trend. Reducing energy consumption will still be a major challenge confronting BRI countries, especially China, the Russian Federation, India, and Indonesia.

Mineral resource rents, fintech technological innovation, digital transformation, and environmental quality in BRI countries: An insight using panel NL-ARDL

The prime objective of the current study is to investigate the impact of mineral resource rents, fintech technological innovation, and digital transformation on the environmental quality of 50 BRI countries. The panel data from the twenty years from 2000 to 2019 of the sample countries are used in the analysis of this study. The study has employed the Panel NL-ARDL to achieve the research objectives. Meanwhile, the current study has employed conventional unit root tests based on Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root tests, such as the LLC and IPS tests. This study employs the method of heterogeneous dynamic panel analysis. The results obtained from the FMOLS regression analysis provide a detailed comprehension of the complex connections between Mineral Resource Rent, Fintech, Digital Transformation, and CO₂ emissions; these findings indicate that countries with advanced financial technology or heavy reliance on Mineral resources are more likely to observe the favorable impacts of digital transformation on the environment. The study results imply that policymakers should investigate all-encompassing policies that exploit these interactions, recognizing that a complete approach can produce substantial and enduring environmental advantages. The interaction variables (NRRDTT and FNTINDTT) demonstrate the negative coefficients that emphasize the combined impact of Mineral resource rent, Finetch, and digital transformation. Policymakers in resource-dependent economies should consider strategies incorporating digitalization and financial technology to optimize their potential impact on environmental sustainability.

Belt and Road Initiative and International Political Economy: Convergence to Transformation from Liberal Globalization to Realist Globalization?

This paper examines whether an association emerges between the tendencies of BRI and the international system in terms of globalization which is a good signal for the main characteristic of the international system. The paper has three sections. The first analyzes the tendencies of the international system, the second analyzes the convergence of BRI corridors, and the third discusses the emergence of association between BRI and the international system and the case of non-participants of BRI but effective countries in the international system. The coefficient of variation is used to determine convergence through the KOF Globalization Index-2022 due to its very effective separation between markets and states to support globalization. The conclusion indicates that the international system and BRI have an association in a transformation from liberal globalization to realist globalization while Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom have a reverse transformation with their recent critical positions to BRI.

Unveiling the power of education, political stability and ICT in shaping technological innovation in BRI nations

Technological innovation is a critical element of economic and environmental sustainability; thus, the promotion of technological innovation in the economy has gained an apex among policy makers. The study's impetus is to measure the effect of investments in information and communication technology (ICT), education, and political stability on technical innovation in BRI countries for 2004–2020. In the process of documenting the empirical nexus through the implementation of novel panel techniques commonly known as Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR), continuously updated fully modified" (Cup-FM) and continuously updated bias-corrected (Cup-BC). The results of the slope of heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependency test, and panel cointegration test have revealed the presence of heterogeneity, all the research variables possessed certain common dynamics, and, most importantly presence of long-run association. The study documented the coefficients of ICT, education and Political stability are positive and statistically significant, indicating a contributory effect in fostering technological innovation in BRI nations. The findings emphasize the importance of upholding political stability, directing resources toward education, and fostering an environment that encourages innovation through the integration of information and communication technology (ICT). The study also highlights how critical it is to bring in FDI and use it to your advantage in order to boost tech development and the economy.

Spatio-Temporal analysis of exports of cultural products and their affecting factors for spatial distribution.

Cultural products constitute a significant portion of global trade, and understanding their export patterns can shed light on economic trends, trade dynamics, and market opportunities. This study conducted the spatio-temporal analysis of exports of cultural products, exploring the relationship between various influencing factors and their impact on the spatial distribution of these exports. Leveraging a diverse dataset encompassing 55 BRI countries for the period of 2005-2022, this research employs advanced spatial analysis techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and spatial regression models, to examine the spatial patterns and determinants of exports if cultural product exports. Moreover, this study delves into the multifaceted determinants affecting the spatial distribution of these exports. The findings of this study reveal significant spatio-temporal variations in the exports of cultural products. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates the presence of spatial clustering, suggesting that regions with high cultural product exports tend to be geographically close to each other. The spatial regression models further identify several key factors like economic development, productive capacities, cultural tourism, information development and human capital influence the spatial distribution of these exports. The findings of the study reveal that there is strong spatial relationship for exports of cultural products in BRI countries. The findings of this research contribute valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and stakeholders regarding a deeper comprehension of the driving forces behind the spatial distribution of these cultural products, facilitating informed decision-making processes to optimize strategies for promoting and sustaining the trade of cultural products in an increasingly interconnected world.

Is the Green Total Factor of Energy Efficiency Rising or Falling? Evidence from the Belt and Road Initiative Countries

“The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) seeks to attain high‐quality development and sustainability. This study examines the green total factor energy efficiency (GTFEE) of 58 BRI countries from 2005 to 2019 and its influence factors using the Super slacked‐based measurement and Tobit models. The findings indicate that: 1) Singapore and the other seven countries have GTFEEs above 0.9, which is better than other countries; seven out of 58 countries have GTFEEs below 0.5. 2) Due to regional disparities, Southeast Asia, Central, and Eastern Europe have the greatest GTFEE, followed by South Asia, West Asia, and the Commonwealth of Independent States, and the lowest is in Central Asia, China, and Mongolia. 3) Compared to developing economies, developed economies have a higher GTFEE. 4) Between 2005 and 2019, the overall BRI energy efficiency dropped from 0.75 to 0.56. 5) According to Tobit results, for every 1% increase in economic development and energy structure, GTFEE increases by 0.08% and 0.31% points, respectively, and for every 1% increase in trade and land area, GTFEE decreases by 0.04 and 0.05, respectively. Therefore, BRI countries should strengthen international cooperation, develop advanced technologies, and increase the proportion of renewable energy utilization.

How do information and communication technology, human capital and renewable energy affect CO2 emission; New insights from BRI countries

If nations want to attain sustainable development with the exponential growth of information and communication technology (ICT) around the world, they must understand the connection between ICT and carbon emissions. Therefore, this study has used panel data from 64 ‘‘Belt and Road Initiative economies between 2000 and 2021 while finding the impact of ICT, renewable energy consumption (REC), human capital (HC) and economic growth (EG) on CO2 emissions. This study employs the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator, Mean Group (MG) estimator and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality. The findings indicate that the use of ICT, HC and the REC are inversely related to CO2 emissions, whereas EG is positively associated to CO2 emissions and hence poses a danger to environmental sustainability. In addition, the interaction term of EG with ICT, REC and HC has negative impact on CO2 emissions in BRI economies. Intriguingly, the results reveal that ICT and CO2 emissions has inverted U-shape relationship in BRI economies. Furthermore, the causality results show that ICT, REC, and human capital are all cause and effect linkages that affect CO2 emissions in both directions. In order to reduce energy utilization and boost economic growth, the findings stress the importance of implementing cutting-edge ICT and REC in the industrial sector.

Topic: Digital Economy, China International Trade Potential, Industries of BRI countries: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

The article investigates the impact of digital trade on China’s trade efficiency, trade potential, and the possible influence factors of China to BRI nations under stochastic frontier gravity methodology framework. In this article, it follows previous studies and employ stochastic frontier gravity model to explore possible influence of digital trade and trade barriers on China’s foreign trade potential at country-level. It evaluates the influence factor of China export potential to BRI countries via the aspect of digital commerce. Moreover, this article enriches the BRI literatures by employing stochastics frontier gravity model to examine the impact of digital trade on China trade potential and trade efficiency to BRI countries. The results of the study support the important role of BRI in facilitating digital trade among BRI countries and China. In addition to revealing the factors affecting digital trade (e.g., GDP and distance, bordering issue), the results highlight the importance of considering non-efficiency factors, in our case, the negative impact of digital trade restrictions on trade efficiency. The findings may provide some insight for policy makers (in China and BRI countries) into loosening the digital trade restrictions and improve trade efficacy along the BRI.

The Relationship between Natural Resource Abundance and Human Development in Belt and Road Initiative Countries: The Role of Financial Development

The goal of this study is to explore the relationship between natural resource abundance and human development. In particular, account for the role of financial development. This study uses data from 51 BRI countries over the period 2000-2018. Concerning the HDI, the results suggest U-shaped relationship between total natural resource rents and HDI. Similarly, gas rents, mineral rents and oil rents are non-linearly related to HDI in BRI countries. For example, in the case of total rents, once its share in GDP exceeds 42.8%, further dependence on natural resources leads to increase in HDI. In our sample, only Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman were above the turning points at some observation years. The interaction term is positive and significant. This implies that increase in natural resource rents in countries with higher levels of financial development does not lead to a reduction of human development. In a similar vein, domestic credit to private sector alleviates negative effect of oil and mineral rents.

Exchange Rate Movements and China-East Africa Trade Balance: A New Perspective From RMB

This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc.

Tests of goods market integration between China and African BRI countries

AbstractThe Chinese Government has promulgated the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) to increase trade flows and integrate goods markets between China and BRI countries. The validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) implies well‐integrated goods markets, a precondition for further economic convergence, and the next stage of economic integration in factor, service, and financial markets. Our study aims to examine the validity of the PPP and the extent of goods market integration between China and selected BRI countries in Africa. Since the functional form of the cointegrating relationship may not be exact or linear, we adopt the nonparametric rank tests for analysis without prior knowledge and specification of the functional form. We also address the rank problems that occur in multivariate rank tests. Our empirical results provide strong evidence of an unrestricted PPP relationship with reasonably strong evidence of nonlinearity in the data. We also find that some African BRI countries have experienced goods market integration with China during the second‐half period only. This indicates that the introduction of the BRI in 2013 and China's active involvement in African economic development through BRI projects are leading to enhanced goods market integration between China and Africa. The results indicate favorable prospects of closer economic cooperation in the factor, service, and financial markets to build a free trade area or common markets with BRI countries in Africa.

Energy transition as a solution for energy security risk: Empirical evidence from BRI countries

This study investigates the effect of energy transition on energy security risk for 41 BRI during 1995–2018 using second generation panel econometric techniques. First this study computes total energy share from renewable resources and then analyses their effects on energy security risk. According to the results of augmented mean group (AMG) and common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG) estimates, renewable resources significantly decrease energy security risk. Energy transition as variable of interest significantly decreases energy security risk with renewable energy resources. This study recommends that a structural change in the form of energy transition reduce energy security risk for selected BRI countries. This is because non-renewable resources although fulfil domestic energy requirements but degrades the environment and still there exists energy security in the form of energy demand and supply, affordability, cleanability sustainability and availability. Corresponding to these findings, BRI countries must implement policies to invest more in renewable energy resources and less utilization of non-renewable resources to prevent themselves from energy security risk in the long run.

Digital Economy, China International Trade Potential, Industries of BRI countries: Evidence from Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

The article investigates the impact of digital trade on China’s trade efficiency, trade potential, and the possible influence factors of China to BRI nations under stochastic frontier gravity methodology framework. In this article, it follows previous studies and employ stochastic frontier gravity model to explore possible influence of digital trade and trade barriers on China’s foreign trade potential at country-level. It evaluates the influence factor of China export potential to BRI countries via the aspect of digital commerce. Moreover, this article enriches the BRI literatures by employing stochastics frontier gravity model to examine the impact of digital trade on China trade potential and trade efficiency to BRI countries. The results of the study support the important role of BRI in facilitating digital trade among BRI countries and China. In addition to revealing the factors affecting digital trade (e.g., GDP and distance, bordering issue), the results highlight the importance of considering non-efficiency factors, in our case, the negative impact of digital trade restrictions on trade efficiency. The findings may provide some insight for policy makers (in China and BRI countries) into loosening the digital trade restrictions and improve trade efficacy along the BRI.

Greening the BRI countries through economic and political reforms.

Preserving the environment and promoting sustainable development are essential objectives for a state aimed at improving the standard of living for present and future generations. The depletion of natural resources and environmental degradation are serious concerns for policymakers worldwide. However, to fulfill its role effectively, a state must have strong institutional capacity. Studies have shown that inadequate governance and weak institutional quality are associated with environmental degradation, lower economic growth, unfavorable development outcomes, and increased inequality. Economic and political reforms are necessary to overcome these issues, while the concept of institutional reforms to save the environment is novel and hardly discussed in the earlier literature, especially in the context of BRI countries. So, this study explores the impact of economic and political reforms on the environment by applying a difference-in-differences approach to the data of 45 BRI economies from 2000 to 2022. The empirical findings reveal a negative relationship between economic and political reforms on ecological footprints, emphasizing the need for institutional reform to preserve the environment in the BRI region. Institutional reforms have a significant contribution to environmental sustainability by fostering better governance, political stability, and an environment conducive to reforms-driven decision-making. These reforms can help address the environmental challenges associated with large-scale infrastructure and economic development projects like the BRI, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable future.