Brexit Research Articles

Impact of BREXIT on United Kingdom and European Union

Brexit was the epithet for “British Exit” from EU, the financial and strategy blending of which the U.K. had been an associate since 1973. That voted to leave the EU. The occupants decided that the assistances of free trade were not counterpoise the costs of free crusade of settlement. The vote was 17.4 million in favour of parting vs. 16.1 million who chosen to persist. For Europe, the negative consequences and defies of Brexit go approach elsewhere the GDP effect: the EU vanished about once sixth of its economic power and a far bigger share of its external and security policy weight with the exit of a nation which has significant global influence. For the UK, non-tariff obstacles are even more challenging than for the EU. Even if the UK signs trade covenants with other nations, the indication that profounder profitable conversation with the US, India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada of Japan could counter poise mislaid trade with the EU is ambiguous.

The Brexit deal and UK fisheries\u2014has reality matched the rhetoric?

Fisheries management has been a strongly contested aspect of the UK’s position in the EU since UK accession, with the fishing industry frequently questioning both the efficacy and fairness of arrangements. During the campaign for UK exit (Brexit) from the EU, and the subsequent negotiations of a new legal and political relationship from 2016 to 2020, senior UK political leaders strongly committed to deliver radically changed fisheries arrangements with respect to the three central issues: regulatory autonomy; access to waters; and quota shares, all while maintaining minimal trade impacts. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement diverges from this Brexit rhetoric. While some regulatory independence has been achieved, UK fisheries management continues in a state of interdependence and significant EU access to UK waters remains, even in the 6–12 nautical mile territorial waters. While the UK gained an increase in quota shares which is estimated to reach 107 thousand tonnes of landed weight annually by 2025 (an increase of 21.3% for quota species and 16.9% for all species, or 17.8% and 12.4% by value), this pales in comparison to the UK Government’s stated ambitions for zonal attachment (achieving 68% by weight and by value - a potential shortfall of 229,000 tonnes / £281 million). This modest change explains the negative reaction of the fishing industry and claims of betrayal in the face of the UK Government’s announcement of a “successful” deal. The stark delivery gap between rhetoric and reality means the UK government faces a challenging start to managing fisheries outside of the Common Fisheries Policy.

THE BANKING SYSTEM OF THE UK: ANALYSIS AND MODELLING

Abstract. The paper deals with the analysis of the banking system of the UK. The UK banking sector is quite diverse, and at the same time oligopolistic. The UK exit from the EU is already having a negative impact on main banking indicators. Uncertainty in the banking sector and among the business community is, definitely, very high. This means that banks will have to work on potential and alternative outcomes, depending on their development. The impact of Brexit on banks and banking in the UK will be determined by both government-level arrangements and the response of individual firms to operating conditions changes. At the same time, the realities of the banking environment after the crisis of 2008—2009 mean that it is necessary not only to strengthen market discipline, but also to avoid excessive proliferation and diversification of commercial banks and concentration of the banking system. The post-crisis environment is characterized by a decrease in the number of commercial banks in the UK. However, the reduction in the number of banks does not prevent an increase in the value of the banking system’s assets and an improvement in their quality. Moreover, the paper explores the crisis of 2008—2009 impact on the functioning of the UK banking system (loans to monetary financial institutions, loans to non-monetary financial institutions, loans to non-monetary financial institutions, loans to the central government, deposits of monetary financial institutions, deposits of non-monetary financial institutions, central government deposits). For this purpose, the system of six vector models of autoregression has been constructed. The results of the simulations have shown that all variables have similar dynamics after the crisis shock, except for central government deposits. In the future, the leveling of the shock is observed for these variables starting from the fourth year. There is only an increase in central government deposits, starting from the second year after the shock The other variables do not respond to the crisis shock. Keywords: financial crisis, banks, bank assets, bank liabilities, problem loans, econometric modelling, VaR-models. JEL Classification C39, C51, C52, E44, E47, G01, G17, G21 Formulas: 6; fig.: 6; tabl.: 1; bibl.: 30.

Post-Brexit France: French Renaissance or loss of geopolitical influence?

Brexit has become a catalyst for major political change in the modern world. This article analyzes the consequences Brexit had on France’s foreign policy position and its status as a “great power”. In chess, the “English Gambit” is known, in which a player sacrifices his piece to gain a strategic advantage. Will France be able to play its English Gambit after the British exit from the EU? In the modern world, the concept of a “great power” primarily presupposes the ability of the country to exert a serious influence on the most important global decisions. For a long time, France has not been able to act alone in the international arena and relies on its influence in the EU to achieve its goals. Therefore, it is obvious that Britain’s withdrawal from the forming the “European pole” of world politics was a serious blow both to the EU and to France. Of course, in the analysis of international relations “after something” does not always mean “as a result of something”, but in 2020–2021, a significant number of facts can be noted that testify to the negative impact of Brexit on the role of France in Europe and the world in general. The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of Britain’s exit from the EU on France’s political role in the European Union and, in general, on France’s global importance as a great power. The authors use comparative analysis, structural-functional method, etc. The empirical basis of the study was made up of media materials, statements and speeches of contemporary politicians, and documents of foreign policy institutions of France and the EU.

Проблема энергетической безопасности Великобритании до референдума о Брекзите

The article is devoted to the problem of ensuring the UK energy security since the 90s of the 20th century to the date (June 23, 2016) of referendum on the UK exit from the European Union (Brexit). The problem is considered in its evolution: from the moment of its emergence during the conservative government of John Major, via the attempts to define the different aspects of the problem and to outline ways to solve it by labour cabinets of Tony Blair (1997–2007) and Gordon Brown (2007–2010), and up to formulating the notion of ‘energy security’ and making concrete steps to strengthen the UK energy security during David Cameron – Nick Clegg coalition cabinet (2010–2015) and the conservative cabinet of David Cameron (2015–2016). The problem is scrutinized with the help of vast number of the official documents and White Papers on energy policy of British governments, the UK Ministry of Energy and Climate Change and the Foreign Office. The article shows that the problem of reducing greenhouse gases emissions as an important part of the international efforts for containment of global climate changes is one of the main challenges for the UK energy security and the key driving force behind diversification of the British energy sector. The author considers the rising dependence of the UK economic development, the prosperity of British consumers and industry on the guaranteed, affordable, secure supply of fossil fuels from the unstable countries of the world as the second important challenge in strengthening the UK energy security. The transition of the United Kingdom’s energy balance towards rapid implementation of the low-carbon technologies (the nuclear power and the renewable energy sources [RES]) is seen in the article as the way to meet two above-mentioned challenges and to strengthen the UK energy security.

Влияние Brexit на отношения Великобритании и ЕС в сфере безопасности и обороны

The article deals with the dynamics behind the post-Brexit European Union-UK security and defence engagement which is particularly relevant and critical to understanding the key dimensions and structural features of regional and global security in the foreseeable future. The urgency of the problem is determined by the fact that the decision to leave the UK from the EU, coupled with the subsequent negotiation process in security and defence spheres, taking into account global and local issues, is a serious challenge to the further functioning of the EU as an integration association. To achieve article goals, a structural-functional version of the system analysis is used, aiming at structural characteristics of the UK exit from the EU. The specificity of the object under consideration also predetermined the use of the decisional method, which allows to focus on the decision-making centers (the European Union and Great Britain), the process of developing and implementing decisions in EU_UK security and defence interactions. The empirical base of the study is made up of several groups of official documents that are directly related to the problem. The first group is represented by official treaties and declarations on the Brexit issue. The second group includes materials from the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office, the Prime Minister's Office, analytical reports, the official parliamentary documents. The third group is represented by the documents of the European Union: strategic documents, materials of the European Council, the EU Commission, speeches and interviews of the official representatives. It should be underlined that currently there is no legal framework with which the parties could develop and coordinate joint responses to emerging foreign policy challenges and threats in military security. The question remains whether prospective cooperation will be ad hoc, caused by the need to respond to each specific threat or challenge, or the approach will be more strategic, planned, long-term and proactive. A special factor increasing the entropy of the post-Brexit British-European dialogue on security and defence is the creation of the trilateral military-political association AUKUS with the participation of the United Kingdom, the United States and Australia. The main outcomes of the article include the points that, for the EU, the main challenges of post-Brexit security and defence relations are the inability to use London's scientific and technological potential, its significant experience in countering terrorism, the capabilities of the British naval forces, a high degree of coordination with the US intelligence services. For the UK, significant risks are the restriction or even complete cessation of participation in the CSDP missions, the European Defence Research Program, PESCO projects, the breaking of a large number of technological chains for defence companies.

Twelve Votes for an Exit: Compromise and Responsiveness in the Brexit Process

AbstractBrexit has been at the centre of the last two British elections and the past legislative term. The UK's exit from the European Union was characterized by a series of parliamentary setbacks, with several government defeats, continuous rebellions and cross-party agreements made to secure control of the agenda. In the research reported in this article, we analyse the parliamentary Brexit process through careful examination of the 12 indicative votes held in Westminster in 2019 to find an alternative solution to Theresa May's exit agreement. We map the choices of each MP along two relevant dimensions, connecting them to the socioeconomic structure of their constituencies as well as to the preferences expressed in the 2016 Brexit referendum. Moreover, we associate these parliamentary behaviours – and thus MPs' attitudes towards compromise and responsiveness – to the gains and losses experienced during the subsequent 2019 general election.

Depression and repression: Global capitalism, economic crisis and penal politics in interwar Greece

Notwithstanding the significant advances made over the last twenty years in terms of charting and explaining the ways in which state punishment is influenced by economic and political forces, little is still known about the penal effects of conditions of economic crisis and about the role the incumbent government's political orientation plays in this regard. Because the few available studies on these questions have been preoccupied with the Anglo-American sphere and only in the context of recent decades at that, even less is known either about the implications that different types or experiences of economic crisis carry for state punishment, or about the influence exerted in this respect by government political orientations other than those found in established democracies. Irrespective of geographical or temporal scope, moreover, the impact that different extranational factors and actors may have in terms of economic, political or directly penal matters domestically remains poorly understood. With a view to helping fill these gaps in the literature, this article explores the effects on state punishment that economic crisis and government political orientation had in interaction with one another in the context of interwar Greece. Attention is first paid to various ways in which global capitalism was decisive in creating within Greece an environment conducive to increased punitiveness on the part of the state. The focus is on the economic, social and political consequences of the Wall Street crash of 1929 and Britain's exit from the gold standard in 1931, as these were exacerbated by Greece's long-term exposure to predatory lending, speculative investing and external interference in her domestic affairs in the context of engaging international capital markets. The article then proceeds to discuss how the Liberal government of 1928–1932 sought to handle the situation, particularly the approach it took towards punishment.

THE IMPACT OF THE NEW GLOBAL REALITY ON THE EUROPEAN INTEGRATION PROCESS: THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SERBIA

The acquisition of full membership for the Republic of Serbia in the European Union depends on a large number of factors. The combined and synergistic effect of these factors has made the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union extremely uncertain in terms of date and final outcome. The new reality, including the COVID-19 pandemic, U.S. isolationist policies during President Trump's tenure, the strengthening of China and Russia, and Britain's exit from the EU, has made this process even more uncertain. In this context, it is crucial to identify and prioritize key factors that affect or could affect the process of Serbia's accession to the European Union, in order to evaluate the possible outcomes of this process. To solve problems of this level of complexity and uncertainty, it is necessary to apply an interdisciplinary approach of the appropriate level of complexity. Therefore, this paper is an extension of previous research (Krstic et al, 2018; Mimovic et al, 2019) based on the defined research goal, but incorporates a complex, network model called theAnalytical Network Process, which included new circumstances that determine what is colloquially called the new reality. All calculations in the paper were performed using the software package SuperDecisions as computer support for the Analytical Network Process.

RUSSIA IN THE UK NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

The unsatisfactory state of Russian-UK relations should be considered not so much in a bilateral format as in the context of global change in the balance of power. It is necessary to take into account not only the factor of Britain's exit from the EU and Britain's search for its place in the world, but also the traditions and principles of the United Kingdom's foreign policy throughout history. The new National Security Strategy of Britain (March 2021) is integrated, for the first time including in a single concept traditional areas of defense and security, as well as aid to development and foreign policy. The author analyzes the evolution of approaches to the content and the implementation of London's foreign policy strategy after Brexit in the light of its significance for Russian-UK relations.

Introduction

The German federal election in September 2021 marked a significant transformation for German politics. As Chancellor Angela Merkel decided not to run again, the election spelled the end of her 16-year tenure; it also signaled a major shift in the German party system. The right-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) entered the Bundestag again after their first entry in 2017, implying—for the first time since 1949—the establishment and sustained parliamentary presence of a party on the national level to the (far-)right of the Christian Democrats. The challenges facing the new parliament and government after the election are paramount. The climate crisis looms as large as ever. With the exception of the AfD, all German parties (and a distinct majority of voters) see this as the most pressing issue to tackle. However, the scope of action will be limited as the extensive state debt accumulated through covid-19 relief measures exerts pressure on the specific German model of social market economy. Finally, the international environment has seen drastic changes in the last years: While the election of u.s. President Joe Biden as successor to Donald Trump implies a return to normal for transatlantic relations, the uk exit from the eu shifts the balance between the remaining member states. After the Euro, refugee, and pandemic crises, European solidarity is strained, complicating Germany’s role as the eu’s “reluctant hegemon” or “gentle giant.” This reluctance or restraint connotes far more than a strategic policy choice: it is deeply rooted in the German history of the twentieth century that witnessed the cruelty and atrocities of the Nazi regime.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF STOCK PRICE INDEX ON EUROPEAN STOCK EXCHANGES BEFORE AND AFTER BREXIT UK STOCK PRICE IN EUROPE

This study was conducted to analyze the comparison of the impact of Britain to Exit (Brexit) on the UK Stock Price Index in the European region. The sampling countries in this study include four European countries, namely Denmark, France, Germany, and England. This research method uses quantitative research by comparing stock price index data before and after the UK's exit from the European Union. This research is an event study research that is analyzing the market reaction due to an event or the publication of an announcement. Results from this study were that the CSE index Denmark, France CAC index, the index HDAX Germany has a significant influence before and after Brexit Britain while Britain's FTSE index had no impact on the stock price index volatility before and after Brexit. This shows that the investment decisions of investors in Denmark, France, and Germany were greatly influenced by the Brexit announcement so that the stock price indexes in these three countries experienced significant movements. While the Brexit announcement does not affect the decisions of investors in the UK itself because this Brexit event does not contain strong information so that market participants do not react before and after the event.

Parliamentary Representation in Modern Britain: Past, Present, and Future

AbstractA series of recent books all attest to a revival of interest in the theory and practice of parliamentary representation in the modern era as a scholarly discipline. This review surveys eight different aspects of that history since the early nineteenth century: the spatial dimension of the Palace of Westminster; the comparative framework offered by the history of parliaments in Europe; ideas of parliamentary representation; the history of parliamentary procedure; women in parliament; the House of Lords; the history of corruption; and the Brexit crisis. Insights and perspectives are drawn from recent historical research as well as from political science and intellectual history. The review concludes by observing that the history of parliamentary representation in the modern era is in good shape. Some older interpretive paradigms still lurk, especially an obsession with ‘democratization’. However, more is now known about individual MPs and constituencies than ever before. The digitization of the records of parliament is expediting the kind of longitudinal analysis which was impossible back in the 1960s and 1970s. And the intellectual history and public policy literature around the idea of representation is enjoying a renaissance.

Supply chain networks, trade and the Brexit deal: a general equilibrium analysis

We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model featuring (i) migration flows across borders; (ii) explicit supply chain networks both across sectors and across countries; (iii) services sector with a significant role in both production and trade; and (iv) a separate banking sector. We then carefully calibrate this model to the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, guided by the terms specified in the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), signed in December 2020. We find that supply networks aggravate the losses from trade disintegration significantly, raising the cost of Brexit, even in the absence of tariffs. We also quantify the effects of trade liberalisation between the UK and the third countries, revealing gains, yet, only at a fraction of the losses from the new frictions to the UK-EU trade. Importantly, losses from the UK's exit from the EU are not shared equally and fall disproportionately on low-skilled households.

Dealing with the crisis : The Brexit Spin

The professionalization of the political class has led to the emergence of key actors in public relations: the so-called “spin doctors”. Frank Esser offers the following definition: “‘spin doctor’ is an amalgam of ‘spin’, meaning the interpretation or slant placed on events (which is a sporting metaphor, referring to the spin a pool player puts on a cue ball), and ‘doctor’, derived from the figurative uses of the word to mean patch up, piece together, and falsify”. Through catchphrases and soundbites, they help candidates present their ideas in the best light possible. As political parties have become brands, the importance of those special advisers has grown, with the rise of powerful figures such as Peter Mandelson, Alistair Campbell or more recently Dominic Cummings. The marketing strategy developed over the past few decades has reinforced a feeling of distrust in politicians and a clear resentment towards the London elite. Far from undermining the role of spin doctors, it seems that the Brexit crisis has strengthened their positions. This paper analyses the influence of spin doctors on Prime Ministers during the Brexit debate, from the referendum campaign in 2016 to the delivery of Brexit in early 2020. Because the first role of spin doctors is to enhance the image of their candidate, we will focus on key moments when the incumbent Prime Minister was in the front line: the 2016 referendum campaign and the 2017 and 2019 general elections.

The crisis of the classical concept of liberal democracy in the context of modern challenges


 
 
 The main aim of this paper is to examine the problem of the crisis of liberal democracy in the modern world, referring to the phenomenon of a loss of balance between social and personal good in a pluralistic society. There are several concepts of democracy in political science, including the classic liberal concept, which sees its core priorities collide with recent global challenges. Thus, the relevance of this problem refers to the recent disappointment in the idea of liberal democracy, which shows disillusionment in democracy as such. In response to this trend, some hybrid regimes offer an alternative in the form of so-called democracies with illiberal approaches. From the other side, the liberal democratic platforms are used by populist political forces, which results in dividing democratic societies about the questions hard to finally solve. The Brexit problem – the process of British exit from the European Union – shows recent examples of long-lasting social effects derived from the crisis of liberal democratic concept. The author of the article has come to the conclusion that when it comes to modern democratic processes, classic liberal approach brings the populism threat back to the table. When there is no balance between the totally free civil society with its direct democratic influences and the state structure with formal procedures aimed at total good of beneficial functioning, the liberal instruments would be used by populists. Populism can create severe divisions within liberal democratic societies providing dilemmas, such as Brexit, which are difficult to solve with the same liberal democratic procedures. This means that liberal democratic approach undermines itself with the very fact of the existing tendency to lose balance between the ideal personal freedom (that includes satisfying every citizen’s choice) and public good.
 
 

Failing backward? EU citizenship, the Court of Justice, and Brexit

ABSTRACT Developments in European Union (EU) citizenship rights meet expectations of the ‘failing forward’ framework that fuses insights from liberal intergovernmentalist and neofunctionalist integration theories, whereby member state disagreements produce an incomplete form of EU citizenship that fails to treat individuals equally. Legal challenges to discriminatory treatment fit neofunctionalist expectations, with the European Court of Justice (ECJ) extending social rights for EU citizens incrementally. Resulting tensions between the evolution of rights and intergovernmental contestation fuels ‘failing forward’ in the form of the de-coupling of law and practice. Despite their limited impact, expanding rights sparked politicization that suggests postfunctionalist failures of European solidarity and declining trust in the ECJ. Most damaging to integration, however, is the lack of voting rights in national elections for mobile EU citizens, which (1) enabled the British exit (Brexit) crisis, an outcome of ‘failing backward’ and (2) persists as a serious EU democratic deficit.

Competition law post-Brexit

The end of the Transition Period following the UK's exit from the European Union and COVID-19 are major catalysts for the Competition and Markets Authority's future work, including in the fields of merger control and antitrust enforcement. This article considers how these, and other events, will influence the CMA's work, including the establishment of the Digital Markets Unit and the Office for the Internal Market, enforcement priorities and international cooperation.

British Art after Brexit

British Art after Brexit

Subject or Object? The Anti-Hero of the Allegory and the Hero of the Anti-Allegory

Referring to the British writers’ prompt reaction to the Brexit crisis, in developing what has already come to be known as BrexLit, Robert Eaglestone remarks the “cultural and emotional landscapes” created by such literary responses, which attempt to “humanize” major political dilemmas. Ali Smith, commenting on the same speed of writing books “pressed against the contemporaneous,” considers this as the result of history repeating itself with us failing to be aware of it, evidence of what we might call a community of unreliable remembers. The paper focuses on Ian McEwan’s 2019 The Cockroach, a novella offering a reversed Kafkaesque metamorphosis, a pretext to satirize Brexit and to meditate on how the antiheroic character caught in this allegorical transformation devolves from subject into object. I argue that this process of objectification (using Martha Nussbaum’s concept, derived from, but not limited to the feminist critique) contributes to the disembodiment and further relativization of memory.