Brexit Referendum Research Articles

Co-Design in Practice: Bringing STS to Post-Brexit Agricultural Policy

Following the Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom's Department for Food, Environment and Rural Affairs (Defra) began to "co-design" a new agri-environment policy for England with stakeholders: the environmental land management (ELM) scheme. ELM is the cornerstone of the most far-reaching agricultural policy reforms undertaken in the UK since the Second World War. This article provides the first empirically grounded assessment of the ELM co-design process. It uses a framework developed by science and technology studies (STS) scholars to help remake participation along constructivist lines to show where, how and why the co-design process was constrained by sociotechnical systems and constitutional relations between citizens, science and the state. Our analysis shows that while STS-informed interventions can help make government-orchestrated participation more experimental, reflexive, anticipatory and responsible, remaking it along constructivist lines requires a new constitutional moment in which major changes are made to the arrangement of epistemic and political authority. With the popularity of co-design rising with governments across the world, our article is relevant to a broad international readership wanting to know more about how co-design fares in the context of large-scale systemic transformations.

William Blake’s Universe, Fitzwilliam Museum, 23 February–19 May 2024; William Blake’s Universe, ed. David Bindman and Esther Chadwick

William Blake’s Universe at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge was structured as a three-colored path through a blue-coded classical past, a fiery present, and a radiant-yellow future. The vision for the exhibition had been gestating for years as a way of rethinking Blake as a European artist by positioning him in dialogue with German art through a collaboration with the Hamburger Kunsthalle. This partnership revived an earlier collaboration with the Kunsthalle’s former director Werner Hofmann, curator of Kunst um 1800, a series of exhibitions including Blake (1975) and John Flaxman (1979), both curated by David Bindman. The 2024 exhibition stemmed, partly, from a reaction to the Brexit referendum in 2016, with Bindman joining forces with Esther Chadwick when she was working at the British Museum. Hamburg was the central point of reference not just because of this museum partnership and its curatorial tradition, but also because of the seminal role that the port city had as a nodal point for European Romanticism, and for the reception of Blake in Germany in particular.

Game Changers: National Referendums and the Politicization of Europe

How do national referendums shape political contestation? This article explores this question by examining the politicization of European integration, a key “cleavage issue” restructuring political conflict across Europe. While national referendums are often assumed to intensify public contestation over European integration, systematic comparative evidence remains limited. This study contributes to the debate by analyzing 87 public debates on European integration across six Western European countries (Austria, Britain, France, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland), including 12 debates with national referendums. The analysis draws on the PolDem dataset (Hutter et al., 2016), updated to include the Brexit referendum. Through comprehensive across-debate and within-debate analyses, the findings show that referendums are associated with heightened politicization, particularly by expanding actor participation and increasing issue salience. Civil society and other non-executive actors gain visibility in referendum contexts, reinforcing the view that referendums level the political playing field. Although referendums increase framing diversity, they do not consistently lead to more polarized or identity-focused debates involving radical parties, challenging the notion that referendums inherently drive cultural conflict. This study advances our understanding of how direct democracy shapes European integration debates and calls for further comparative research on institutional factors and endogenous conflict dynamics to better grasp the varied impacts of referendums on politicization.

Uncertainty and loan pricing for public and private firms: evidence from the Brexit referendum

We examine the impact of uncertainty on loan pricing for public and private firms in the UK, using the 2016 Brexit referendum as an exogenous shock of uncertainty. We find that uncertainty leads to a significantly higher cost of borrowing for private firms relative to public firms. However, firm-level foreign exposure, i.e. foreign sales and subsidiaries in the foreign markets, mitigates the adverse impact of uncertainty on loan prices more for private firms than public firms. Moreover, uncertainty increases the number of financial covenants in loans for public firms with high information transparency (i.e. constituents of FTSE 100/250). However, we observe a decline in the number of financial covenants in loans for private firms with low information transparency (i.e. private firms without institutional investors) under uncertainty. Overall, we provide novel evidence highlighting the differences in the design of syndicated loan contracts between public and private firms under uncertainty.

Fake News Detection on Mainstream Media Using Natural Language Processing

In light of recent advances in online journalism, the diversity, abundance, and accessibility of news have increased exponentially. However, the growth of online journalism also brings issues, especially regarding the reliability of the news. Notably, news widely shared on social media during the US presidential election campaign and the UK Brexit referendum caused millions of reactions from the public. This concerning scenario prompted industry and academia to address the pressing issue of fake news. Detecting fake news is a meticulous, time-consuming, and labor-intensive task that requires expert judgment. To mitigate this challenge, this study proposes a linguistic based model for Turkish fake news detection. In this dataset was collected from TRT's RSS service and through web scraping from the Teyit.org platform. It contains news titles and summaries related to significant events in Türkiye between 2015 and 2023. The research compares classical machine learning classifiers including SVM, Logistic Regression, Random Forest, k-NN, Decision Tree, and Naive Bayes, against a neural based sequential learning model such as LSTM using real world datasets. Furthermore, the research investigates the impacts of different word representation techniques, including TF-IDF and CountVectorizer, and also hyperparameter optimization on the classification results. The findings revealed that using hyperparameter tuning, the TF-IDF method yielded the highest accuracy rate of 93.12% on the SVM model and that TF-IDF is more effective.

Media battles in the cybersphere: analyzing news and social media agendas during the 2015 Greek bailout referendum

On June 27, 2015, the Greek coalition government, led by the left-wing SYRIZA party, announced the July 5th referendum, asking citizens to decide on the adoption of the EU-proposed economic plan. Referendums in Greece are infrequent, and this decision sparked various interpretations of the motives behind it. In events like the 2016 US presidential elections and the Brexit referendum of the same year, public opinion, especially as expressed on platforms like Twitter, often diverged from the narrative set by the news media agenda. The outcome of the Greek referendum reflected Twitter users’ preferences more closely, surprising many and challenging the traditional role of news media in shaping public opinion. This paper revisits the 2015 Greek referendum, comparing topics discussed in news media with those on Twitter to understand whether the disparity between the two platforms resulted from the dominance of news media agenda-setting or other factors, such as Twitter’s inclination toward alternative voices. The study employs content analysis and topic modeling on a dataset comprising news articles and tweets. Results indicate that the news media agenda predominantly influenced topics discussed by “YES” supporters on Twitter, while it played a less significant role in shaping the topics discussed by “NO” supporters during the 2015 Greek referendum.

Rousseauian Sovereignty: The Willingness of All

This article disputes Keith Sutherland's claim that a sovereign minipublic constituted by random sampling would satisfy Rousseau's conception of popular sovereignty. On my interpretation, Rousseau's volonté générale is a regularly verified 'general willingness' in which every association-member must be allowed a voice, rather than a metaphysically ambiguous 'general will', inferred from putatively objective interests, that may be hypothesized by others. Using an analogy with equal marriage to illuminate Rousseau's vision and the historical examples of classical Athens, Rome, and the Brexit referendum to illustrate both its feasibility and its challenges, I argue from numerous passages in the Social Contract (1762) that it was an essential criterion of Rousseau's ideal political association that no member would want any other member to be subjected unwillingly to the terms of their common association. Accordingly, there needed to be regular, low-stakes opportunities for every member to signal publicly their personal willingness (or unwillingness) to maintain the association on current or proposed terms, knowing (a) what those terms consisted in substantively, (b) that the position of a majority of voters would be decisive, and (c) that if any members found themselves unable willingly to accept the result of the vote, then proceeding with it would be illegitimate. On the same reasoning, whenever association members are denied an equal share in deciding the terms of their common association — as when those decisions are made by an authorized representative mini-public — then no one can be sure that the excluded members are genuinely willing to maintain the association on the stated terms, thereby making the association illegitimate. A randomly sampled mini-public might have made an acceptable government, on Rousseau's definition (i.e.a body that makes decisions on particular matters rather than on general norms), but never an acceptable sovereign.

Imperial Nostalgia in Australian Defence Policy in the 21st Century

ABSTRACT This article explores the recent history of the United Kingdom—Australia defence relationship in context of the Australia—United Kingdom—United States (AUKUS) submarine agreement. Drawing on defence and foreign-policy white papers as well as public polling, it analyses the framing and significance of the UK as a defence partner in the early 21st century, tracing changes against the unfolding War on Terror, the rise of China as a major power, the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit referendum. The article shows that insecurities about the US alliance and the perceived threat from China corresponded with a turning back towards the UK as a source of safety, drawing on the imperial nostalgia evident in Brexiteers’ “Global Britain” campaign to normalise the dynamic. The article argues that imperial nostalgia works to neutralise Australian anxieties about overdependence on the US by conceptualising the former colonial parent as an equal ally within the AUKUS triad.

An unconsidered leave? Inequality aversion and the brexit referendum

An unconsidered leave? Inequality aversion and the brexit referendum

“It’s not the lie that bothers me, it’s the insult to my intelligence that I find offensive”: An investigation into the use of lies and insults in political discourse during the 2024 UK General Election on the basis of the BBC 7-party debate

In the mid 2010s political discourse was subject to a downward spiral as lies and insults have become prevalent firstly as a consequence of the Brexit Referendum in the UK and then the election of Donald Trump as President of the USA. This spiral in the UK theoretically came to an end with the demise of Boris Johnson as Prime Minister, and the return to ‘grown up’ politics promised by Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt among others. Thus, the 2024 UK General Election seemed to offer the perfect opportunity to assess the extent to which the dishonesty and insult that characterised the populist Johnson’s premiership had fallen out of fashion. The paper analyses the BBC’s seven-party debate, which took place on June 7th, 2024, using the methodology of political discourse analysis to investigate the extent to which representatives of the seven main parties competing in the election campaign were prepared to resort to lies and insult as part of their rhetorical arsenal. The results indicate that the Conservatives and Remain were particularly prone to the deployment of both lies and insults, but, somewhat surprisingly, the Scottish National Party were equally liable to slip in the odd embellishment of the truth.

The Short-Term and Long-Term Economic Impacts of the Brexit Referendum: A DID and VAR Analysis Using Financial Market Variables to Examine the UK Local Economy

Brexit has profoundly impacted not only international economies but also the local economy of the UK. This study builds upon previous research on the effects of the Brexit referendum, while avoiding the formal Brexit period that overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic, to examine the short-term and long-term impacts of the Brexit referendum on the UK's local economy. The study innovatively employs the Difference-in-Differences (DID) model, which has not been previously used in this context, to assess the impact of the Brexit referendum on stocks significantly affected by Brexit compared to those less affected. Additionally, the study utilizes the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to analyze how Brexit-related shocks, specifically abnormal stock market returns, impact key economic variables: the ten-year UK government bond yield and the GBP/USD exchange rate. The findings confirm that Brexit-related news has immediate and lasting effects on market volatility, with significant short-term impacts on the UK's local economy, while the long-term effects are relatively mild.

The European Union in Turbulent Times: Brexit, Populism, and Future Challenges

The United Kingdom’s 2016 decision to exit the European Union constituted a pivotal moment in European politics, precipitating a surge of uncertainty and contemplation throughout the continent. Brexit represented not merely a political or economic division; it epitomised the escalating impact of right-wing populism, which has subsequently intensified throughout Europe. Nationalist and populist groups are undermining the conventional principles of integration and collaboration, prompting the European Union to confront unparalleled enquiries regarding its unity, stability, and future trajectory. Right-wing populist discourses are explicitly nationalist and are organised to identify another against whom the nation is delineated: the Brexit referendum campaign and the extended history of Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom. The internal and external elements of populist discourses are pertinent in many manners. This article analyses the relationship between Brexit and the ascendance of right-wing populism, investigating the wider ramifications for the EU’s long-term viability, governance, and identity in a swiftly evolving political context. Keywords: Brexit; Rightwing Populism; European Union; Integration; Euroscepticism

Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum

Brexit, what Brexit? Euro area portfolio exposures to the United Kingdom since the Brexit referendum

Brussels‐Based Think Tanks in Times of Crisis: Examining Think Tank Climate Publication and Networking Activities During Brexit

AbstractThe European Union (EU) relies on the input of scientific knowledge and external policy advice to develop and justify its climate policy. This link between the EU and external policy actors, including Brussels‐based think tanks, has emboldened amid multiple crises faced by the EU. Using crisis, Brussels‐based think tanks may alter their activities by acting strategically in attempts to influence EU policy‐making and enhance their prominence by promoting ideas, knowledge and policy recommendations. This research note sets out to examine the climate policy link between the EU and Brussels‐based think tanks and the changing activities of Brussels‐based think tanks during the Brexit crisis, given Brexit has raised questions around the EU's ability to continually develop ambitious climate policy and sustain its climate leadership. Drawing on a dataset of over 800 think tank documents and applying a time‐series regression and descriptive social network analysis, changes in the climate‐related publication productivity and co‐authorship networking activities of three Brussels‐based think tanks – Bruegel, CEPS and EPC – are examined before and after the Brexit referendum. The results show that Brussels‐based think tanks' climate‐related publication productivity and their co‐authorship networking activities change before and after the Brexit referendum, but in different ways, highlighting the need to consider the characteristics of individual think tanks vis‐à‐vis their role in EU policy‐making.

Homecoming After Brexit: Evidence on Academic Migration From Bibliometric Data

This study assesses the initial effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on the mobility of academic scholars to and from the United Kingdom (UK). We leverage bibliometric data from millions of Scopus publications to infer changes in the countries of residence of published researchers by the changes in their institutional affiliations over time. We focus on a selected sample of active and internationally mobile researchers whose movements are traceable for every year between 2013 and 2019 and measure the changes in their migration patterns. Although we do not observe a brain drain following Brexit, we find evidence that scholars’ mobility patterns changed after Brexit. Among the active researchers in our sample, their probability of leaving the UK increased by approximately 86% if their academic origin (country of first publication) was an EU country. For scholars with a UK academic origin, their post-Brexit probability of leaving the UK decreased by approximately 14%, and their probability of moving (back) to the UK increased by roughly 65%. Our analysis points to a compositional change in the academic origins of the researchers entering and leaving the UK as one of the first impacts of Brexit on the UK and EU academic workforce.

From opponents to enemies? How the British press framed the EU–UK relationship in Brexit news

ABSTRACT In contemporary democracies, the media plays a crucial role. How the press addresses issues concerning the European Union and its relationships with member states profoundly influences political discourse and public opinion. As an ‘awkward partner’, the United Kingdom has consistently had a complex relationship with the EU, predominantly regarding questions of identity and sovereignty. Within this political context, British newspapers are widely regarded as highly sensitive to EU-UK conflict, employing media rhetoric that underscores a form of destructive dissent associated with threats to sovereignty and identity in the face of a German-dominated Europe. Furthermore, the 2016 Brexit referendum notably exacerbated the EU and the UK divide. This article investigates the prominence of the EU-UK relationship and its portrayal in British media coverage of Brexit. To achieve this, the study analyses news articles published by two British broadsheet newspapers and two tabloids between 1 February 2020 and 31 December 2020.

Volatile campaigns? The effects of shocks on campaign effectiveness in British general elections

Some political events, such as the referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU in 2016, have the potential to alter substantially the electoral landscape, changing long-standing patterns of party alignment and support. Recent work suggests they also have the capacity to influence where and how much parties' local campaign efforts might affect their support. Analysis of the fallout from the UK's Brexit referendum suggests that after the vote, pro-Brexit parties' campaigns yielded greater rewards the lower the local support for Brexit, while pro-Brexit parties' campaigns became more effective where support for Brexit was higher. In this paper, we subject that claim to further scrutiny. Firstly, we employ alternative measures of campaign intensity with greater coverage of cases to assess whether the findings hold. Secondly, we broaden our understanding by looking at the campaigns of a wider range of parties than in the previous research. Thirdly, we extend the analysis to examine another political shock with major electoral consequences, the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence. Our results broadly confirm previous research findings, but we also uncover some important variations and differences. Parties do not campaign in a vacuum: no matter how professional their operations, the climate of national and local opinion affects their capacity to gain a hearing.

Brexsea Trade and Uncertainty: Impact of Brexit on Seafood Exports

ABSTRACTThis paper investigates the effect of the Brexit referendum on Norwegian firms' exports of fresh seafood to the United Kingdom. We exploit the referendum as a quasi‐natural experiment to investigate the effect of an uncertainty shock in trade on export values, volumes, and prices, as well as market entry and exit. First, we find that Norwegian firms experienced an average 2% decrease in total export value resulting from the referendum, suggesting a limited aggregate effect. Second, we examine the role of duration in firm‐to‐firm relationships in response to the shock, finding that more established relationships responded relatively more along the intensive margin to the shock. Third, the market dynamic post‐referendum reveals a nuanced impact; while new market entries were limited, a slight increase in exit probabilities was observed. This reflects a strategic response by Norwegian exporters to the shock, particularly amongst firms with an established export history, indicating a reassessment of market presence. Overall, Norwegian exporters have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, effectively adjusting to the challenges of the Brexit referendum with minimal disruptions while maintaining their international trade relations amidst short‐term uncertainties.

You’re projecting! Global Britain, European strategic autonomy and the discursive rescue of the internationalised state

ABSTRACT How do leaders respond to costly demands to re-nationalise political control? The re-shaping of state–society relations engendered by globalisation has produced a backlash in the form of populist demands to “take back control”, yet leaders face significant costs in responding to demands to re-nationalise highly interdependent economies. In this article, we show how leaders respond to these demands by crafting new discourses of their polity’s position in the international system, a process we term “discursive externalisation”. Externalisation is a cheap way of responding to domestic pressures which avoids powerful domestic veto players while benefiting from the rallying effects of foreign policy renewal. By keeping rhetoric broad, externalisation can co-opt elements of the status quo in favour of new representations of state–society relations and a new basis for political legitimacy. We demonstrate our argument empirically by examining the articulation of new discourses in the foreign and security policy domain after the 2016 Brexit referendum in both the UK and the EU. We show how ideas of “Global Britain” and “European strategic autonomy” both helped to rearticulate the relationship between the polity and its citizens by externalising agendas for internal reform, transforming crises of legitimacy into discourses of international renewal.

Technocratic reason in hard times: the mobilisation of economic knowledge and the discursive politics of Brexit

ABSTRACT In the context of the debate surrounding and following the Brexit referendum in June 2016, credentialed economic expertise did not enjoy a privileged position within the political and policy debate. Using the contrasting cases of the Office for Budget Responsibility and Economists for Brexit/Free Trade, this paper explores the mobilisation of economic expertise within the discursive politics of Brexit under conditions of pervasive radical uncertainty. It argues that politicisation is an important factor in side-lining technocratic influence over policy choice, but that the particular type of politicisation in play (plebiscitary) meant that the input of technocratic experts was downgraded. It is a politics conducted in another register to the reasoned, evidence-based vernacular of accredited experts and the policy discourses that they work with and through. We also argue that the basic unknowability of the post-Brexit economy further impaired expert input. These limitations were acknowledged by accredited experts themselves, reducing their traction within the policy debate. This unknowability was exploited by forms of counter-expertise mobilised by the Leave campaign. The radical uncertainties of Brexit allowed in heterodox assumptions and approaches to compete on a level playing field with an approximation of what could be presented as prudent best practice.