Economic Crisis In Brazil Research Articles

Skills and employment transitions in Brazil

This article introduces two methods to derive internationally comparable skill and occupational distance measures based on machine learning and natural language processing techniques. We apply these measures to produce descriptive facts about employment transitions and workers’ wage distribution in Brazil using all formal labour contracts registered in the period 2003‐18. Our findings indicate that workers who use non‐routine cognitive skills intensively are better off in terms of employment, wages and switching occupation. Overall, we observe signs of routine‐biased technological change and employment polarization following the Brazilian economic crisis of 2014.

Local Financial Institutions and Income Inequality: Evidence from Brazil's Credit Cooperative Movement

ABSTRACTLocal financial institutions can play a crucial role in reducing income inequalities at the within‐country level by promoting inclusive economic growth and development across time and space. This is against a backdrop of increasing financial and economic fragility, to which emerging economies have also been exposed over more recent decades and years. This article adds emerging economy evidence from Brazil to an empirical literature on the income inequality implications of cooperative financial institutions. Panel‐data estimations for 2004‒19 reveal that Brazilian credit cooperatives have gone beyond commercial banks in supporting communities that have traditionally been underserved financially. Additionally, the article provides new evidence and insights on credit cooperatives’ resilience in the context of a relatively recent but severe economic crisis in Brazil. The results indicate that credit cooperatives have helped fill gaps in finance and economic opportunity that tend to arise in an emerging economy setting. Furthermore, the contribution of credit cooperatives in filling these gaps is found to be more significant at lower levels of development. These findings add theoretical and, importantly, empirical support to the relationship channel of financial inclusion, which is in line with the optimistic perspective in this debate.

Are Exchange Rate Contagions Asymmetric? Evidence from Emerging Market Economies

ABSTRACT In view of increasing importance of emerging market currencies in the global foreign exchange markets and the growing concerns regarding the vulnerability of these currencies to global crises, we assess the connectedness of 16 emerging currencies by employing asymmetric domains of time and frequency spanning March 2011 to January 2022. We first notice bidirectional interconnectedness (both positive and negative) among three clusters of sampled exchange rates. The currency contagions follow divergent directions during crisis periods. During US debt selling crisis, there is a short-run negative contagion pointing to the appreciation of currencies. Following the Chinese financial market crisis, emerging market currencies demonstrated devaluation. There is long-run positive contagion (devaluation) in response to European Debt Crisis, Russian Ruble Crisis, Brazilian economic crisis, and Argentinian monetary crisis. The sampled exchange rates demonstrate negative long-run connectedness (appreciation) after COVID-19. The major transmitters to total connectedness are South Africa, Poland, and Mexico and major receivers include Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, India, Indonesia, and Egypt. In the long run, China is emerging as a significant transmitter. Our study draws significant policy and practical implications for regulators, investors, and financial market participants.

The importance for tuberculosis of mitigating economic crises

The importance for tuberculosis of mitigating economic crises

Women on the Front Line: The Growth of SMEs During Crises

In this paper, we investigate the influence of women workers on the growth of SMEs operating in economic downturns. Our results suggest that the disproportional spikes in women unemployment observed during recessions are not only unjust but also harmful to SMEs striving to weather crises. Analyzing the performance of 10,445 SMEs during the Brazilian economic crisis of 2015-2017, we found that an increase in the percentage of women employees in the total workforce of SMEs boosts their growth. Additionally, we identified that these firms grow further by increasing women employees’ wages, by preferring more women workers with higher levels of education and experience or, preferably, by retaining more educated women who are better paid at the same time. These results carry lessons for SMEs facing current and future crises and contribute to the study of gender and firm performance and to efforts to reduce the persistent gender gap in businesses.

Bolsonaro’s ‘Anti-Diplomacy'

The article compares Brazil’s president Jair Bolsonaro diplomacy with the traditional one and explains in what terms and why his foreign policy is different from a classical approach.Before he came to power, such principles as peaceful coexistence with neighbors, aspiration for national grandeur, peaceful conflict settlement and independent decision making were inherent in Brazilian diplomacy. Today the country’s foreign policy is unpredictable, inconsistent, and far from traditional peacefulness. Before changes in the US administration in 2021, Bolsonaro, as well as many of his predecessors, bet on the USA to solve national problems. Unilateral concessions to Washington predictably gave no results and lowered Brazilian independence in decision making. The USA was not interested in strengthening its rival in Latin America, no matter how friendly the relations between the two countries were. Bolsonaro’s policy is influenced by different lobby groups with opposing interests in government agencies. An important role is played by the military and followers of the theoretician Olavo de Carvalho. Paying attention to each of these groups, Bolsonaro implements an inconsistent foreign policy and runs a risk of not putting important political projects into practice and of finding himself in an international isolation.The changes in foreign policy take place amidst political and economic crisis in Brazil. Coronavirus pandemic aggravated the conflict of the branches of power. To strengthen his positions, the president appeals to the population, looks for support in the Parliament and pushes through an administrative bill aimed at making the president more autonomous in managing the executive branch structures.The appearance of the “right-wing” president and powerful influence of the conservative military stem from the economic and political crisis in Brazil, and Bolsonaro’s “special” governance style fits a worldwide trend of populism and active politics coverage in social networks.

Brazil in the ILO Committee on Freedom of Association (CFA): The COVID-19 economic crisis and the possible new Labour Reforms

In 2018, the Committee on Freedom of Association (CFA) of the International Labour Organization (ILO) released its Annual Report showing a puzzling scenario: around 50% of the complaints – 1,681 out of 3,336 – presented before the Committee since its creation have come from Latin America. If we analyse the last 10 years – i.e. from 2008 to 2018 – we find out a more astonishing situation: around 67% of the complaints – 477 out of 708 – came from Latin America. This Latin-American presence in the CFA may become even greater due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as economic downturns often impact labour rights. By the way, it was during an economic crisis in Brazil that the 2017 Labour Reform – symbolized by Law No. 13,467/2017, in force since November that year – was passed, remodelling some of the Labour Law pillars in the country. On the ILO Normlex website, we notice that three Brazilian complaints were sent to the CFA after November 2017: Cases No. 3327, 3344, and 3355. They may show us how freedom of association has been recently treated in diverse economic sectors, as well as sow the seeds of Labour Reforms amid/after the COVID-19 economic crisis. This article utilizes observational/exploratory methods to analyse these three cases, pointing out if/how the core modifications of the 2017 Labour Reform in Brazil connect with the debates in the selected CFA Cases. All in all, what about next Reforms?

THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY DURING THE OLD REGIME CRISIS (C. 1750-1807)

ABSTRACT While some authors defend the existence of a widespread economic crisis in Brazil during the 18th century, motivated by the fall in the extraction of precious metals, others suggest that the colonial economy maintained a positive performance thanks to the growth of its domestic market. The main goal of this article is to challenge these two explanations, showing that different rhythms of development characterised Brazil's economy in each of its regions. We show that between the 1750s and 1790s, the Amazon region (Maranhão and Pará) experienced uninterrupted growth. Despite some fluctuations, Bahia and Pernambuco showed a tendency towards growth while the centre-south (Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais) suffered an economic contraction. We conclude that there was a stagnation in the added value of exports from all regions, whilst simultaneous growth for all territories occurred only after 1790.

Impacts of the 2017 Brazilian National Primary Care Policy on public primary health care in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

In 2017, in a scenario of financial restrictions caused by an economic crisis in Brazil, a new primary health care policy promoted changes in the way different primary health care models were prioritized and implemented, with possible negative effects on the access to primary health care. This study aims to investigate if the 2017 Brazilian National Primary Care Policy (PNAB) negatively affected the primary care organization based on the Family Health Strategy (FHS) model and on the access to public primary care services in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The annual averages and the pre- and post-2017 averages of 15 variables were analyzed to identify possible trend breaks in 2017. A Bayesian structural time series model was used to determine the differences between actual and predicted post-2017 averages of each variable. The data were obtained via the Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS), the Department of Informatics of the Brazilian Unified National Health System. The annual average of family health teams was 1,179.9 teams, in 2017, and 788.8 teams in 2020, while the annual average of equivalent family health teams was 163.6, in 2017, and 125.4, in 2020. The actual post-2017 average of 989.3 family health teams (p = 0.004) was 16.7% lower than the predicted post-2017 average of 1,187.4 teams. In total, 62.6% and 40.5% of the population in Rio de Janeiro were covered by the FHS in 2017, and 2020, respectively. The provision of public primary care services decreased after 2017. Results show a deterioration of the FHS in Rio de Janeiro after 2017 and no increase in the traditional primary care model. Access to public primary care services reduced in the same period.

Regional and social inequalities in food insecurity in Brazil, 2013-2018.

This study aims to analyze the association between social indicators and the worsening of food insecurity in 2013 and 2018 in different regions of Brazil. Data from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (2013) and Brazilian Household Budgets Survey (2018) were analyzed, considering nationally representative samples of 110,750 and 57,920 households, respectively. Food insecurity was assessed using the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale by estimating the percentage changes in food insecurity levels between 2013 and 2018, according to sociodemographic variables. The association between social indicators and food insecurity disaggregated by region was estimated using multinomial logistic regression models. Although North and Northeast regions had higher proportions of food insecurity, the Southeast and Central-West regions had the highest increase in food insecurity in the same periods. Income was the indicator with the highest association with food insecurity both in 2013 and 2018. We also observed the association between the presence of three or more residents aged under 18 in a household and a higher risk of food insecurity in North and South regions. Food insecurity increased unevenly among regions during the Brazilian economic crisis, which reinforced regional inequality. Moreover, food insecurity was greater among households with worse social and economic living conditions, contributing to social inequality in the country. Thus, strengthening public policies to promote food security and nutrition according to regional social inequities is necessary.

O impacto da meritocracia em empresas de logística durante crises econômicas

Purpose: meritocracy and incentives for innovation are instruments in the search for efficiency and increased productivity. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the correlation between meritocracy and productivity gains that a franchise network presented in a year of economic crisis in Brazil. Design/methodology/approach: the method of qualitative and quantitative approach of this research used experimentation, based on interviews, observation and data analysis. Two groups of companies, which totalized 92 companies and 746 professionals participated of the research. Findings: management based on recognition and reward for employees of a group of companies has shown an increase in productivity of up to 25% in a year of economic recession. In the same period, another group of companies in the same business, but without a meritocracy-based compensation system, achieved a 9% drop. Research limitations/implications: this work suffered from limitations as to the influence of the local economy of each franchise on the results, impacting the comparisons of the groups that participated in the experimental research. Practical implications: logistics companies can use this work to define a meritocratic model that encourages employees to seek innovation in processes and contribute to better operational performance. Social implications: logistics has a strong impact on the competitiveness of companies, from industry to commerce. This work offers visibility of the influence of productivity in logistics companies in the supply chain. Originality/value: this work contributes to the analysis of the influence of meritocracy in people management, especially in times of economic crisis.

Financial Cooperatives and Commercial Banks´ differences before and after the 2014-2016 Brazilian economic crisis

The present research aims to evaluate the performance of cooperatives and commercial banks, emphasizing the before and after the Brazilian economic crisis of 2015 and 2016. The worsening of the fiscal and monetary situation led to the impeachment of the Brazilian President of the Republic on May 12, 2016, which generated even more uncertainty and instability in the financial market, creating an effect like a 2008 global financial crisis. In this context, the objective of this work is to evaluate changes in the performance of cooperatives and commercial banks and presenting the consequence of the Brazilian crisis to these financial institutions. The main scope of the study was how cooperatives and banks fared in the face of the situation, especially on the indicators of net loans and derivatives. The methodology will identify the difference between this type of institution using panel data methods with fixed and random effect models, tested using the Hausmann test to see which one best fits the data scenario. The results point out the worse performance of cooperatives than commercial banks in the crisis period of 2015/2016 and over 2011-2020. The cooperatives usually established to provide financial support to small businesses and farmers have suffered significantly more than commercial banks; nevertheless, all suffer.

Smoking prevalence and economic crisis in Brazil.

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To estimate the impact of the 2015–2018 economic crisis on tobacco consumption in Brazil.METHODS This is an interrupted time series analysis conducted with data from 27 cities collected by VIGITEL, using linear regression models to account for first-order autocorrelation. Analyses were conducted based on gender, age group, and education level.RESULTS Smoking rates decreased between 2006 and 2018, decelerating after the crisis onset. Differently than women, men showed an immediate but transient increase in smoking, followed by a decelerated decrease. Those over 65 also showed increased smoking rates immediately after the economic crisis onset, but decline accelerated later on. In turn, we found a trend reversal among those aged 31–44. Rates also decreased among those with lower education levels, but decelerated among those with more years of schooling.CONCLUSION An economic crisis have varied impacts on the smoking habits of different population groups. Tobacco control policies should entail a detailed understanding of smoking epidemiology, especially during an economic crisis.

Estimating the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) for the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2002 to 2016, as a tool for public policy decision making

This paper estimates the genuine progress indicator (GPI) for the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Brazil, from 2002 to 2016 as an alternative indicator to the gross domestic product (GDP). Methodological approach was based on GPI 2.0 (Talberth in EE 142:1–11, 2017) with necessary adjustments due to geographical and biological specificities and currency conversions. For the calculations, primary and secondary data sources were consulted, both from public agencies and private institutions. Three main results were clearly observed: (1) the relation GPI/GDP fluctuated between 22 and 31% in the period 2002–2016; (2) even with a decline in Rio de Janeiro GDP from 2014 to 2016, due to Brazilian economic crisis, the GPI still increased in those years and (3) despite this continuous growth of GPI, its average yearly growth rate was 7,95%, while GDP, even with its 2014–2016 decrease, showed a higher average growth rate of 9,30% per year. Results also show that public policies in RJ should focus on jobs creation, investments in renewable energy and improving public transport, actions that are related to variables that, proportionally, most negatively affected the GPI. On the other hand, policies aiming to preserve vegetation cover should be intensified, since services of protected natural capital were the ones that contributed most positively to the indicator. This approach aims to increase GPI in the state and, consequently, improve the quality of life of the population.

MEASURING PUBLIC EXPENSES WITH WORKFORCE IN FIGHTING FOREST FIRE

Measuring public expenses with workforce in fighting forest fire. The frequency of forest fires and the lack of investment in public institutions arising from the current Brazilian economic crisis, emerges the difficulty of competent institutions in managing resources due to the increasing number of fires, mainly the labor. The objective of this work was to measure the expenses with labor in the combats against forest fires in Public Conservation Units by comparing it with the labor with prevention. This exploratory, documentary and ex post facto study was prepared based on documents and reports from public institutions involved in fighting a major fire in a Biological Reserve in the State of Espírito Santo. The data were analyzed according to the participating institutions, number of participants, positions, value of remunerations and days worked. To measure the average daily expenditure on different remunerations, an accounting model was developed, using the values of the remunerations for the year in which the fire occurred. In the end, it could be concluded that, for every 124.3 hectares burned, 110 individuals worked per day, the majority were military personnel at the beginning of their careers and that the expenditure on public labor employed in combat, both in quantity and remuneration, was much higher than the labor with the temporary hiring of firefighters.

Trends in mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil and the sustainable development targets

Abstract Background Monitoring premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority, as part of the Agenda 2030. Objective The current study aims to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and states, projections for 2030. Methods We analyzed the following NCDs: cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, comparing deaths and mortality rates between 1990 and 2017, for Brazil and states. The study used the concept of premature mortality used by the World Health Organization (30 to 69 years). The absolute number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, years of life lost (YLL), were used, comparing 1990 and 2017. We also analyzed the premature death fraction (YLL) for NCDs attributable to risk factors. Results There was a reduction of 35,3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCD in 2017. DALYs rate decreased by 33.6% and the YLL rate by 36.0% in the same period. There was a reduction in the NCD rates in all 27 states. The main risk factors related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were - high body mass index, diet risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and among men, diet risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, high body mass index. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs were declining in the period, however, after 2015, the curve reversed and fluctuation and tendency to increase rates were observed. Conclusions Trends of mortality rates by NCD were declining in the period, however, after 2015, the curve was inverted and the fluctuation and trend of increasing rates was observed, which can compromise the SDG goals in 2030. Key messages The austerity policies adopted and the economic crisis in Brazil after 2015, resulted in increased poverty and worsening NCD mortality indicators. With the NCD indicators worsening in 2015, SDG targets may not be achieved.

Impacto da crise econômica de 2015-2016 sobre o coeficiente beta do mercado de capitais brasileiro

Estudos empíricos têm encontrado evidências de que o risco de mercado, ou beta de mercado, tende a aumentar em períodos de crise. Dada a crise econômica brasileira de 2015-2016, o objetivo deste artigo é analisar se esta teve um impacto significativo sobre o risco de mercado das empresas brasileiras com ações negociadas na bolsa de valores brasileira (B3). Para isso, estimamos a trajetória do beta de uma carteira de ações negociadas na B3 para o período de fevereiro de 2010 a dezembro de 2018, considerando um modelo CAPM condicional em que a dinâmica de beta é dada por um processo estocástico combinado com um conjunto de variáveis condicionantes relacionadas ao ciclo econômico. Encontramos evidências de que o beta da carteira teve um aumento a partir de janeiro de 2015 e só retornou a patamares do período pré-crise a partir de março de 2018. Essas evidências estão de acordo com os resultados encontrados na literatura internacional e têm implicações importantes em termos de gerenciamento de risco.

The impact of crises on investments and financing of Brazilian companies: an approach in the context of financial constraints

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of financial crises on investments and financing of constrained and unconstrained Brazilian firms, specifically analyzing the impact of the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2015 Brazilian economic crisis. For this purpose, the companies were classified as constrained or non-constrained by the criterion of the existence or non-existence of ratings, using quarterly data between Q1 2007 and Q3 2016, and adopting the panel analysis as the method. The results indicate that only the Brazilian crisis of 2015 had a negative impact on corporate investments, with this impact being greater on constrained firms, with evidence that cash was more relevant to these firms. Regarding the impact of crises on leverage, the 2008 subprime crisis showed a greater negative impact on the leverage of constrained firms, accompanied by an increase in the proportion of short-term debt, mainly to these companies.

Subsidiary Role Change During a Local Economic Crisis: A Sensemaking Approach

Using a sensemaking lens to examine the creation of subsidiary roles, this paper is built on three premises: (1) subsidiary managers often have different perceptions about their subsidiary role in the multinational enterprise, and (2) that such roles are not static and require continues re-interpretation and 3) that subsidiary roles are continually negotiated not assigned. Using data collected from 17 subsidiaries before and after the recent economic crisis in Brazil, we found support that subsidiary managers’ sense making processes plays an important part in the interpretation of the subsidiary’s roles and continual reinterpretation of these roles. Subsidiary roles were found to be negotiated between the HQ and the subsidiary and that subsidiaries with higher levels of innovativeness also evidenced when there exists what we call reinterpretation capabilities.

Social determinants of health and catastrophic costs associated with the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis.

The epidemiological relevance of tuberculosis is directly related to the socioeconomic profile of a given country. Vulnerability to tuberculosis is influenced by biological factors (e.g., malnutrition, HIV infection, and age) and social factors (e.g., unhealthy housing, high population density, inappropriate working conditions, and lack of access to health services). In many cases, multiple vulnerabilities occur in conjunction. We propose here a reflection on tuberculosis from the point of view of the social determinants of health, as well as the costs associated with its diagnosis and treatment in Brazil, based not only on data in the international literature but also on evidence related to the national context. Given the magnitude of tuberculosis as a socially mediated disease, there is an evident need for greater involvement of health professionals and of the scientific community to implement relevant operational and research measures to understand the social conditions influencing the health-illness continuum for tuberculosis patients. Although the recent economic crisis in Brazil has contributed to increased mortality from all causes, including tuberculosis, health and social protection expenditures have mitigated detrimental health effects. The evidence presented here underscores the importance of public social protection policies for minimizing the effects of tuberculosis indicators, with the aim of eliminating tuberculosis in Brazil.