Trends in mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil and the sustainable development targets

Abstract

Abstract Background Monitoring premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is a global priority, as part of the Agenda 2030. Objective The current study aims to describe the mortality trends and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to NCDs between 1990 and 2017 for Brazil and states, projections for 2030. Methods We analyzed the following NCDs: cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, comparing deaths and mortality rates between 1990 and 2017, for Brazil and states. The study used the concept of premature mortality used by the World Health Organization (30 to 69 years). The absolute number of deaths, mortality rates, DALYs, years of life lost (YLL), were used, comparing 1990 and 2017. We also analyzed the premature death fraction (YLL) for NCDs attributable to risk factors. Results There was a reduction of 35,3% from 509.1 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (1990) to 329.6 deaths/100,000 inhabitants due to NCD in 2017. DALYs rate decreased by 33.6% and the YLL rate by 36.0% in the same period. There was a reduction in the NCD rates in all 27 states. The main risk factors related to premature deaths by NCDs in 2017 among women were - high body mass index, diet risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, and among men, diet risks, high systolic blood pressure, tobacco, high body mass index. Trends in mortality rates due to NCDs were declining in the period, however, after 2015, the curve reversed and fluctuation and tendency to increase rates were observed. Conclusions Trends of mortality rates by NCD were declining in the period, however, after 2015, the curve was inverted and the fluctuation and trend of increasing rates was observed, which can compromise the SDG goals in 2030. Key messages The austerity policies adopted and the economic crisis in Brazil after 2015, resulted in increased poverty and worsening NCD mortality indicators. With the NCD indicators worsening in 2015, SDG targets may not be achieved.