Foreign Currency Borrowing Research Articles

Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk

Foreign currency loans by unhedged borrowers are widespread in many regions of the world. Against this background, we study whether the demand for foreign currency loans is driven by a lack of knowledge about the exchange rate risk emanating from such loans. We employ individual-level survey data from eight Central and Eastern European countries that provides information on agents’ knowledge about exchange rate risk. Results show, first, that a majority of respondents is aware that depreciations increase loan installments. Second, we find that knowledge about the exchange rate risk exerts a strong impact on the choice of the loan currency.

An Empirical Study on Factors Affecting the Usage of Currency Derivatives with Reference to India

The present paper examines the use of currency derivatives in order to understand the driving forces behind its usage. The analysis carried on 83 non-banking Indian firms revealed that firms with greater growth opportunities and less financial constraints are more likely to use currency derivatives. This result suggests that firms might use derivatives to reduce cash flow variation that might otherwise preclude firms from investing in valuable growth opportunities. The overall analysis reveals that debt ratios i.e. foreign currency borrowing and long term debt ratio along with the income ratios like export ratio and profit before tax are the important micro-economic variables for using currency derivatives.

Corporate foreign currency borrowing and investment: The case of Hungary

The paper investigates the impact of foreign currency lending on investment. Using Hungarian firm level data, we test whether foreign currency lending contributed to larger investment before the crisis and whether the depreciation during the Great Recession resulted in lower investment rate for firms with foreign currency loans. Results of OLS and matching estimations show that before the crisis FX lending increased investment rates and during the crisis the investment rate of firms with FX loans declined more because of the balance sheet effects triggered by the depreciation. These effects were found to be more pronounced for liquidity constrained firms.

Interbank market, stock market, and bank performance in East Asia

This paper investigates the role of stock and interbank markets in measuring bank performance in Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand. Research on whether financial markets served in terms of assessment and discipline of banks has been done in advanced countries; however, there has been limited research on this question as it applies to banks in East Asian countries. The stock price of individual banks can reflect a bank's risk profile, interbank loans to domestic banks with higher risk and bad performance may decline, and interbank borrowing rates charged to banks can respond to bank performance. This functioning of the stock and interbank markets is particularly important from the view of maintaining and strengthening the domestic banking sectors and the financial system in East Asia. This paper employs panel regression techniques and examines whether interbank transactions and stock prices of domestic commercial banks responded to bank risk and performance in those Asian countries. The regression results suggest that interbank borrowing, the borrowing rate, and foreign currency borrowing were affected by bank risk variables subsequent to the 1997 crisis in Thailand. In Korea, foreign currency borrowing of domestic banks may respond to bank risk after the crisis. In the case of stock markets, the regression shows that bank risk influenced each bank's stock price in Korea and Malaysia. The results for Thailand suggest that bank risk and cost affected bank stock prices after the crisis. These findings imply that improving both the interbank market and the stock market may play a role in establishing a sound banking system through market discipline effects.

The effect of foreign currency borrowing and financial development on exports: a dynamic panel analysis on Asia-Pacific countries

This paper examines the effect of foreign currency borrowing and financial development on exports. A balanced panel data is constructed for the selected 17 East Asian-Pacific countries, and the cointegration relationship among the variables of the export demand function is verified using Pedroni's heterogeneous panel cointegration tests. The empirical results indicate that the effect of foreign debt on exports is conditional on the magnitude of currency depreciation. The larger the depreciation of a currency, the more its exports are adversely affected by its foreign liability. This finding might be a possible explanation as to why large exchange rate depreciation during the 1997 financial crisis failed to generate the export boom. The results also show different effects of financial shocks on exports in these economies.

Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms

We model how an information asymmetry between the lending bank and the applying firm about the currency structure of firm revenues may affect loan currency choice. Our framework features a trade-off between the lower cost of foreign currency debt and the costs of currency induced loan default. We show that under imperfect information about firm revenues more local earners choose foreign currency loans, as they do not bear the full cost of the corresponding credit risk. This result is consistent with recent evidence showing that information asymmetries may increase foreign currency borrowing by retail clients in the transition economies.

Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in emerging markets: When domestic banks intermediate dollars

This paper investigates what induces small firms in an emerging market economy to borrow dollar credit from domestic banks. Our data are from a unique survey of firms in Lebanon. The findings complement studies of large firms with foreign currency loans from foreign lenders. Exporters, naturally hedged against currency risk, are more likely to incur dollar debt. Firms also partly hedge themselves by passing currency risk to customers and suppliers. Less opaque firms with easily verifiable collateral and higher net worth are more likely to access dollar credit. Firms reliant on formal financing (banks and supplier credit) are more likely to contract dollar debt than firms reliant on informal financing (family, friends and moneylenders). Bank relationships, however, do not increase the dollar debt likelihood. And finally, profitable firms are less likely to have dollar debt. Information frictions and limited collateral, therefore, constrain dollar credit even when it is intermediated domestically.

Credit Risk Spreads in Local and Foreign Currencies

Governments, corporations, and even small firms raise and denominate capital in different currencies. We examine the micro‐level factors that should be considered by a borrower when structuring debt denominated in various currencies. This paper will show how the currency composition of debt affects the cost of debt through the interaction with the risk of company's assets. We look at the currency mismatch in the firm and analyze its credit spread within a Merton's type model with bankruptcy. We show that foreign currency borrowing is cheaper when the exchange rate is positively correlated with the return on the company's assets. The determining factor is not just whether a given company is an exporter or importer, but rather the statistical correlation between the rate of return on the firm's assets and changes in the exchange rate.

Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe

Foreign currency loans represent an important feature of recent financial developments in CEECs. This might pose a serious challenge for macroeconomic stability. Against this background, we study the determinants of foreign currency loans of households, using data on the behavior of households in nine CEECs. Our results reveal that foreign currency loans are driven by households’ lack of trust in the stability of the local currency and in domestic financial institutions. Moreover, special factors including remittances and expectations of euro adoption play an important role in selected regions. The financial crisis reduced foreign currency borrowing, but there is some indication this effect might be only temporary.

Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms

We model how an information asymmetry between the lending bank and the applying firm about the currency structure of firm revenues may affect loan currency choice. Our framework features a trade-off between the lower cost of foreign currency debt and the costs of currency induced loan default. We show that under imperfect information about firm revenues, more local earners choose foreign currency loans, as they do not bear the full cost of the corresponding credit risk. This result is consistent with recent evidence showing that information asymmetries may increase foreign currency borrowing by retail clients in the transition economies.

How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America

Using a unique dataset with information on the currency composition of firms' assets and liabilities in six Latin-American countries, I investigate how the choice of exchange rate regime affects firms' foreign currency borrowing decisions and the associated currency mismatches in their balance sheets. I find that after countries switch from pegged to floating exchange rate regimes, firms reduce their levels of foreign currency exposures, in two ways. First, they reduce the share of debt contracted in foreign currency. Second, firms match more systematically their foreign currency liabilities with assets denominated in foreign currency and export revenues--effectively reducing their vulnerability to exchange rate shocks. More broadly, the study provides novel evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on the level of un-hedged foreign currency debt in the corporate sector and thus on aggregate financial stability.

Capital inflows, Current Accounts, and Exchange Rate Regimes in Central East Europe during and after the Global Financial Crisis

Summary This contribution is concerned with the real economy effects of the current global crisis in Central East Europe. It analyses the way that the global financial crisis has transmitted into Central East Europe (contagion) by focussing on the drying up of capital inflows (in particular foreign direct investment), the worsening of current account imbalances, the role of the exchange rate regimes, and of increasing foreign currency borrowing during the years before the crisis. The analysis shows that the growth and development model of the region, which featured current account deficits financed by capital inflows, served as an accelerator for the adverse effects of contagion in Central East Europe. Countries with a fixed exchange rate to the euro proved to be the countries in the region hit hardest, whereas a flexible exchange rate appears to have acted as a shield against contagion. This casts doubts on the preferability of the planned rapid adoption of the euro in some of the countries in Central East Europe.

Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in the transition economies

We examine the firm- and country-level determinants of foreign currency borrowing by small firms, using information on the most recent loan extended to 3101 firms in 25 transition countries between 2002 and 2005. Our results suggest that foreign currency borrowing is much stronger related to firm-level foreign currency revenues than it is to country-level interest rate differentials. Supporting the conclusion that carry-trade behavior is not the key driver of foreign currency borrowing in our sample we find no evidence that firm-level indicators of distress costs or financial transparency affect loan currency denomination. Overall, our findings suggest that retail clients which do take foreign currency loans are better equipped to bear the corresponding currency risks than is commonly thought. Policy makers should therefore take a closer look at the characteristics of borrowers before implementing regulations which are aimed at curbing foreign currency loans.

Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership

AbstractWe analyse the effect of European Union (EU) membership on financial dollarization for the Central and Eastern European countries. Using a unique monthly data set that spans about two decades, we find that both the accession process towards EU membership and EU entry have a direct impact on deposit dollarization (DD) and loan dollarization (LD). EU membership reduces DD while it increases LD. The negative effect on DD captures the increased confidence of the private sector in the domestic currency, as they consider the EU admission process a reflection of their government's commitment to promoting policies of long‐run currency stability. The positive impact on credit dollarization is the outcome of a greater convergence of exchange rates to the euro and the subsequent anticipation of lower currency risk, which diminishes the cost of foreign currency borrowing.

Government Securities, Money Market and Cash Management in Serbia

This paper presents the main issues and key recommendations relevant to the government securities market, money market, and government cash management in Serbia. In terms of the government securities market, the paper analyzes the current T-bill program, euro denominated frozen savings (FFS) bonds, and dinar T-bonds. The paper also analyzes the pros and cons of future funding options: (i) international foreign currency borrowing; (ii) fresh FFS euro bonds; (iii) fixed rate dinar bonds; (iv) floating rate dinar Bonds; and (v) euro indexed dinar bonds. In terms of the money market, the paper recommends the introduction of interbank repos, and further improving the transparency on the interbank market. In both cases, the paper recommends that banks that are not well-capitalized and of poor credit standing should not be allowed to stand in the path of desirable reforms. The paper favors' the introduction of reverse repos by National Bank of Serbia (NBS). The paper also points out that NBS has started issuing repos (out to 60 days) in its own bills, thereby segmenting the bill market and undermining T bill issuance. The paper recommends that NBS make best efforts to reduce the scale of its interventions using its own paper and to rely instead on T bonds for repos purposes. Ministry of finance (MOF), for its part, should commensurately increase T bill issuance and also initiate Dinar (the local currency of Serbia) (SRD) T bond issuance not beyond three year maturity - as the budgeting situation permits - a process that will assist the NBS in its efforts to manage liquidity and help to develop the capital markets. In terms of government cash management, the paper points out that the current Treasury Department has a well-developed system of budgetary control. However it does not incorporate an efficient cash management system. This entails forecasting future cash flows and, ideally, the ability of the Treasury to transact in the market to manage over (or under) funding. The MOF should improve its cash forecasting capacity.

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks’ balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998 - 2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

A New Index of Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk

This paper constructs a new measure of currency mismatch in the banking sector that controls for bank lending to unhedged borrowers. This measure explicitly takes into account the indirect exchange rate risk that banks undertake when they lend to borrowers that will not be able to repay in the event of a sharp depreciation. Such systemic risk taking is not captured by indicators that are based only on banks' balance sheet data. The new measure is constructed for 10 emerging European economies and for a broader sample that includes 19 additional emerging economies, for the period 1998-2008. Comparisons with previous currency mismatch measures that do not adjust for unhedged foreign currency borrowing illustrate the advantages of the new approach. In particular, the new measure flagged the indirect currency mismatch vulnerabilities that were building up in a number of emerging economies before the recent global crisis. Measuring currency mismatch more accurately can help country authorities in their efforts to address vulnerabilities at the right time, avoiding hurting growth prospects.

Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership

We analyze the effect of European Union (EU) membership on financial dollarization for the Central and Eastern European countries. Using a unique monthly dataset that spans about two decades, we find that both the accession process toward EU membership and EU entry have a direct impact on deposit and loan dollarization. EU membership reduces deposit dollarization while it increases loan dollarization. The negative effect on deposit dollarization captures the increased confidence of the private sector in the domestic currency as they consider the EU admission process to reflect their government’s commitment in promoting policies of long-run currency stability. The positive impact on credit dollarization is the outcome of a greater convergence of exchange rates to the euro and the subsequent anticipation for a lower currency risk, which diminishes the cost of foreign currency borrowing.

The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007

We provide a comparison of salient organizational features of primary markets for foreign government debt over the very long run. We focus on output, quality control, information provision, competition, pricing, charging and signaling. We find that the market set up experienced a radical transformation in the recent period and interpret this as resulting from the rise of liability insurance provided by rating agencies. Underwriters have given up their former role as gatekeepers of liquidity and certification agencies to become aggressive competitors in a new speculative grade market.

Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms

We examine the firm- and country-level determinants of the currency denomination of small business loans. We first model the choice of loan currency in a framework which features a trade-off between lower cost of debt and the risk of firm-level distress costs, and also incorporates the impact of information asymmetry between banks and firms. When foreign currency funds come at a lower interest rate, all foreign currency earners as well as those local currency earners with high revenues and low distress costs choose foreign currency loans. When the banks have imperfect information on the currency and level of firm revenues, even more local earners switch to foreign currency loans, as they do not bear the full cost of the corresponding credit risk. We then test the implications of our model by using a 2005 survey with responses from 9,098 firms in 26 transition countries. The survey contains details on 3,105 recent bank loans. At the firm level, our findings suggest that firms with foreign currency income and assets are more likely to borrow in a foreign currency. In contrast, firm-level distress costs and financial transparency affect the currency denomination only weakly. At the country level, the interest rate advantages of foreign currency funds and the exchange rate volatility do not explain the foreign currency borrowing in our sample. However, foreign bank presence, weak corporate governance and the absence of capital controls encourage foreign currency borrowing. All in all, we cannot confirm that carry-trade behavior is the key driver of foreign currency borrowing by small firms in transition economies. Our results do, however, support the conjecture that banking-sector structures and institutions that aggravate information asymmetries may facilitate foreign currency borrowing.