Boreal Summer Monsoon Research Articles

Will the South Asian monsoon overturning circulation stabilize any further?

Understanding the response of the South Asian monsoon (SAM) system to global climate change is an interesting scientific problem that has enormous implications from the societal viewpoint. While the CMIP3 projections of future changes in monsoon precipitation used in the IPCC AR4 show major uncertainties, there is a growing recognition that the rapid increase of moisture in a warming climate can potentially enhance the stability of the large-scale tropical circulations. In this work, the authors have examined the stability of the SAM circulation based on diagnostic analysis of climate datasets over the past half century; and addressed the issue of likely future changes in the SAM in response to global warming using simulations from an ultra-high resolution (20 km) global climate model. Additional sensitivity experiments using a simplified atmospheric model have been presented to supplement the overall findings. The results here suggest that the intensity of the boreal summer monsoon overturning circulation and the associated southwesterly monsoon flow have significantly weakened during the past 50-years. The weakening trend of the monsoon circulation is further corroborated by a significant decrease in the frequency of moderate-to-heavy monsoon rainfall days and upward vertical velocities particularly over the narrow mountain ranges of the Western Ghats. Based on simulations from the 20-km ultra high-resolution model, it is argued that a stabilization (weakening) of the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation in response to global warming can potentially lead to a weakened large-scale monsoon flow thereby resulting in weaker vertical velocities and reduced orographic precipitation over the narrow Western Ghat mountains by the end of the twenty-first century. Supplementary experiments using a simplified atmospheric model indicate a high sensitivity of the large-scale monsoon circulation to atmospheric stability in comparison with the effects of condensational heating.

Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model

Reasonably realistic climatology of atmospheric and oceanic parameters over the Asian monsoon region is a pre-requisite for models used for monsoon studies. The biases in representing these features lead to problems in representing the strength and variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). This study attempts to unravel the ability of a state-of-the-art coupled model, SINTEX-F2, in simulating these characteristics of ISM. The coupled model reproduces the precipitation and circulation climatology reasonably well. However, the mean ISM is weaker than observed, as evident from various monsoon indices. A wavenumber-frequency spectrum analysis reveals that the model intraseasonal oscillations are also weaker-than-observed. One possible reason for the weaker-than-observed ISM arises from the warm bias, over the tropical oceans, especially over the equatorial western Indian Ocean, inherent in the model. This warm bias is not only confined to the surface layers, but also extends through most of the troposphere. As a result of this warm bias, the coupled model has too weak meridional tropospheric temperature gradient to drive a realistic monsoon circulation. This in turn leads to a weakening of the moisture gradient as well as the vertical shear of easterlies required for sustained northward propagation of rain band, resulting in weak monsoon circulation. It is also noted that the recently documented interaction between the interannual and intraseasonal variabilities of ISM through very long breaks (VLBs) is poor in the model. This seems to be related to the inability of the model in simulating the eastward propagating Madden-Julian oscillation during VLBs.

The long‐lived monsoon depressions of 2006 and their linkage with the Indian Ocean Dipole

AbstractA highlight of the 2006 boreal summer monsoon season was the enhanced activity of long‐lived monsoon depressions and low‐pressure systems (LPS) over the Indian region. Another important phenomenon during this period was the evolution of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (PIOD) event. Although previous studies have investigated the impact of PIOD on the large‐scale monsoon response, their influence on monsoon LPS activity is not well understood. Based on detailed diagnostic analyses of monsoon LPS during 2006, as well as those associated with other PIOD events during 1958–2007, the present work addresses two specific issues concerning the roles of (a) PIOD‐induced large‐scale circulation changes and (b) internal feedbacks between latent heating and dynamics, in sustaining the monsoon LPS activity. The results show that PIOD conditions generally favour increased propensity of long‐lived (>5 days) LPS with long westward tracks extending into northwest India. The average contribution of long‐lived monsoon LPS to the total is found to be approximately 12% higher during PIOD episodes as compared to non‐PIOD. The PIOD events showed two important large‐scale elements conducive for enhancement of LPS activity: (a) strengthening of cross‐equatorial moisture transport from south‐eastern tropical Indian Ocean into the Bay of Bengal and (b) enrichment of barotropic instability of monsoon flow. Estimates of latent‐heating profiles from TRMM‐satellite products during the 2006 LPS showed heating in the mesoscale updrafts above 600 hPa with maximum approximately 400 hPa; while cooling prevailed in lower levels. Stratiform precipitation covered approximately 70–85% of rain area during the prolonged LPS; and the large‐scale monsoon Hadley‐type circulation was found to be intensified with strong mid‐level inflows entering the stratiform rain region. The overall findings suggest that the PIOD‐induced background circulation together with internal feedbacks between mesoscale convective systems and large‐scale circulation can effectively enhance the longevity of monsoon LPS. These results should serve as important inputs for numerical weather forecasting of extreme rainfall events associated with the regional monsoon phenomenon. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Influence of the South Atlantic Ocean Dipole on West African Summer Precipitation

Abstract This paper demonstrates a causal link between the air–sea phenomenon referred to as the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) dipole (SAOD) and the interannual variability of precipitation over West Africa during the boreal summer monsoon rainy season in which most of the annual rainfall is recorded using an array of observational datasets. Analyses show that positive precipitation anomalies exceeding 40 mm month−1 over most locations at the Guinea Coast are associated with the positive phase of the SAOD, which is characterized by warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the northeastern part of the SAO or the northeast pole (NEP)—that is, the Atlantic Niño sector—and cool SSTA in the southwestern part [southwest pole (SWP)] off the Argentina–Uruguay–Brazil coast. On the other hand, interannual variability in the Sahel is closely connected to the West African summer monsoon and the Atlantic Niño. The results of this study reveal that the well-known influence of the Atlantic Niño on Guinea Coast precipitation in the literature represents only a component of the ocean–atmosphere interactions in the SAO causing the precipitation anomalies. Indeed, correlation and composite analyses using Guinea Coast precipitation indices consistently yield significant links to both the NEP and SWP centers of action. The hypothesized physical mechanism through which the SAOD-type SST gradients could induce Guinea Coast precipitation anomalies is the Lindzen–Nigam process. During the positive phase of the SAOD, the imprint of SST gradients gives rise to divergence over the SWP linked to convergence and vigorous upward motion over the NEP thereby leading to enhancement of precipitation over the Guinea Coast.

The precession phase of the boreal summer monsoon as viewed from the eastern Mediterranean (ODP Site 968)

The astronomical timescale of the Eastern Mediterranean Plio–Pleistocene builds on tuning of sapropel layers to Northern Hemisphere summer insolation maxima. A 3000-year precession lag has become instrumental in the tuning procedure as radiocarbon dating revealed that the midpoint of the youngest sapropel, S1, in the early Holocene occurred approximately 3000 years after the insolation maximum. The origin of the time lag remains elusive, however, because sapropels are generally linked to maximum African monsoon intensities and transient climate modeling results indicate an in-phase behavior of the African monsoon relative to precession forcing. Here we present new high-resolution records of bulk sediment geochemistry and benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes from ODP Site 968 in the Eastern Mediterranean. We show that the 3000-year precession time lag of the sapropel midpoints is consistent with (1) the global marine isotope chronology, (2) maximum (monsoonal) precipitation conditions in the Mediterranean region and China derived from radiometrically dated speleothem records, and (3) maximum atmospheric methane concentrations in Antarctica ice cores. We show that the time lag relates to the occurrence of precession-paced North Atlantic cold events, which systematically delayed the onset of strong boreal summer monsoon intensity. Our findings may also explain a non-stationary behavior of the African monsoon over the past 3 million years due to more frequent and intensive cold events in the Late Pleistocene.

Dynamics of intensification of the boreal summer monsoon flow during IOD events

The present study focuses on understanding the dynamics of intensification of the boreal summer monsoon cross-equatorial flow generally observed during positive-Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, by taking 1994 as a case study. In particular, the influence of the anomalous divergent motions during 1994 (i.e., east–west circulation over equatorial Indian Ocean and the monsoon Hadley-type circulation) on the intensification of summer monsoon cross-equatorial flow is investigated. This problem is examined using diagnostic analyses and simulation experiments from a multi-level global atmospheric model forced with observed diabatic heating. The results suggest that the transfer of kinetic energy (KE) from the divergent motions to the rotational flows can be very effective during IOD periods like 1994; and provides a plausible explanation for the increase of KE of the monsoon cross-equatorial flow over Bay-of-Bengal and adjoining areas. The study also investigates the enhanced activity of westward propagating disturbances observed during 1994 over the monsoon region.

Late Pleistocene surface and thermocline conditions of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean

Surface and thermocline conditions of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean were reconstructed through the past glacial–interglacial cycle by using Mg/Ca and alkenone-paleothermometry, stable oxygen isotopes of calcite and seawater, and terrigenous fraction performed on sediment core GeoB 10038-4 off SW Sumatra (∼6°S, 103°E, 1819 m water depth). Results show that annual mean surface and thermocline temperatures varied differently and independently, and suggest that surface temperatures have been responding to southern high-latitude climate, whereas the more variable thermocline temperatures were remotely controlled by changes in the thermocline temperatures of the North Indian Ocean. Except for glacial terminations, salinity proxies indicate that changing intensities of the boreal summer monsoon did not considerably affect annual mean conditions off Sumatra during the past 133,000 years. Our results do not show a glacial–interglacial pattern in the thermocline conditions and reject a linear response of the tropical Indian Ocean thermocline to mid- and high-latitude climate change. Alkenone-based surface temperature estimates varied in line with the terrigenous fraction of the sediment and the East Asian winter monsoon proxy records at the precession band suggestive of monsoon (sea level) to be the dominant control on alkenone temperatures in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean on sub-orbital (glacial–interglacial) timescales.

Significant Influence of the Boreal Summer Monsoon Flow on the Indian Ocean Response during Dipole Events

Abstract A majority of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events in the last 50 years were accompanied by enhanced summer monsoon circulation and above-normal precipitation over central-north India. Given that IODs peak during boreal autumn following the summer monsoon season, this study examines the role of the summer monsoon flow on the Indian Ocean (IO) response using a suite of ocean model experiments and supplementary data diagnostics. The present results indicate that, if the summer monsoon Hadley-type circulation strengthens during positive IOD events, then the strong off-equatorial southeasterly winds over the northern flanks of the intensified Australian high can effectively promote upwelling in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and amplify the zonal gradient of the IO heat content response. While it is noted that a strong monsoon cross-equatorial flow by itself may not generate a dipolelike response, a strengthening (weakening) of monsoon easterlies to the south of the equator during positive IOD events tends to reinforce (hinder) the zonal gradient of the upper-ocean heat content response. The findings show that an intensification of monsoonal winds during positive IOD periods produces nonlinear amplification of easterly wind stress anomalies to the south of the equator because of the nonlinear dependence of wind stress on wind speed. It is noted that such an off-equatorial intensification of easterlies over the SH enhances upwelling in the eastern IO off Sumatra–Java, and the thermocline shoaling provides a zonal pressure gradient, which drives anomalous eastward equatorial undercurrents (EUC) in the subsurface. Furthermore, the combination of positive IOD and stronger-than-normal monsoonal flow favors intensification of shallow transient meridional overturning circulation in the eastern IO and enhances the feed of cold subsurface off-equatorial waters to the EUC.

Role of stratiform rainfall in modifying the northward propagation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation

The stratiform and convective rain rate measurement from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data can give a realistic idea of the latent heating distribution in the tropics. The vertical profile of diabatic heating related to the convective and the stratiform rain is known to modulate the dynamical response of atmosphere and also the vertical structure of Madden‐Julian Oscillation. In this study, the contribution of the stratiform and convective rain rate to the total rain rate during different phases of the northward propagating boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) is examined using the TRMM data. Two new insights have emerged from this analysis. First, unlike conventional wisdom, the convective component shows weak northward propagation and grows and decays in situ during the evolution of active and break phases, while the northward propagation of the monsoon ISO is largely achieved by organized movement of the stratiform component. Second, the trademark meridional dipole pattern of total rainfall between the monsoon trough zone and the southern equatorial Indian Ocean also arises largely from the contribution of stratiform anomalies. As the northward propagation of the monsoon ISO is known to be due to the anomalous response of the atmosphere to heating in the presence of mean easterly vertical shear, modification of the vertical profile of heating due to a contribution from stratiform rain could influence the northward propagation of the monsoon ISO. This hypothesis is tested using a simple global atmospheric circulation model to study the response of the convective and stratiform heating profiles on the modification of the mean condition. Modification in the large‐scale response of the atmosphere as a result of proper specification of convective and stratiform heating anomalies indicates that the presence of stratiform heating favors the northward propagation of the heat source thereby facilitating the positive feedback leading to northward propagation of the monsoon ISO. These results underline the importance of simulating the partitioning of convective and stratiform rain by cumulus parameterization in climate models if they have to get the space‐time structure of the summer ISOs correct.

Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines

The spatio-temporal variability of boreal summer monsoon onset over the Philippines is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall data across a network of 76 gauges for the period 1977 to 2004 and the pentad Merged Analysis of Precipitation from the US Climate Prediction Center from 1979 to 2006. The onset date is defined using a local agronomic definition, namely the first wet day of a 5-day period receiving at least 40 mm without any 15-day dry spell receiving 0.6.

Changes in the thermocline structure of the Indonesian outflow during Terminations I and II

We present centennial records of sea surface and upper thermocline temperatures in Core MD01-2378 from the Timor Sea, which provide new insights into the variability of the Indonesian outflow across the last two glacial terminations. Mg/Ca in Globigerinoides ruber (white s. s.) indicates an overall increase of 3.2 °C in sea surface temperature (SST) over Termination I. Following an early Holocene plateau at 11.3–6.4 ka, SSTs cooled by 0.6 °C during the middle to late Holocene (6.4–0.7 ka). The early Holocene warming occurred in phase with increasing northern hemisphere summer insolation, coinciding with northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, enhanced boreal summer monsoon and expansion of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. Thermocline temperatures (Pulleniatina obliquiloculata Mg/Ca) gradually decreased from 24.5 to 21.5 °C since 10.3 ka, reflecting intensification of a cool thermocline throughflow. The vertical structure of the upper ocean in the Timor Sea evolved in similar fashion during the Holocene and MIS5e, although the duration of SST plateaux differed (11.3 to 6.4 ka in Termination I and from 129 to 119 ka in Termination II), which was probably due to the more intense northern hemisphere summer insolation during MIS 5e. During both terminations, SST increased simultaneously in the southern high latitudes and the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, suggesting virtually instantaneous atmospheric climate feedbacks between the high and low latitudes.

Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts

Improved understanding of underlying mecha- nism responsible for Indian summer monsoon (ISM) droughts is important due to their profound socio-economic impact over the region. While some droughts are associated with 'external forcing' such as the El-Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), many ISM droughts are not related to any known 'external forcing'. Here, we unravel a funda- mental dynamic process responsible for droughts arising not only from external forcing but also those associated with internal dynamics. We show that most ISM droughts are associated with at least one very long break (VLB; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) and that the processes responsible for VLBs may also be the mecha- nism responsible for ISM droughts. Our analysis also reveals that all extended monsoon breaks (whether co-occurred with El-Nino or not) are associated with an eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific extending to the dateline and westward propagating Rossby waves between 10� and 25� N. The divergent Rossby wave asso- ciated with the dry phase of equatorial convection propagates westward towards Indian land, couple with the northward propagating dry phase and leads to the suste- nance of breaks. Thus, the propensity of eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer is largely the cause of monsoon droughts. While short breaks are not accompanied by westerly wind events (WWE) over equa- torial western Pacific favorable for initiating air-sea interaction, all VLBs are accompanied by sustained WWE. The WWEs associated with all VLB during 1975-2005 initiate air-sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale, extend the warm pool eastward allowing the convectively coupled MJO to propagate further eastward and thereby sustaining the divergent circulation over India and the monsoon break. The ocean-atmosphere coupling on interannual time scale (such as El-Nino) can also produce VLB, but not necessary.

July droughts over Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region and Indian Ocean dipole during El Niño events

AbstractThe monthly summer monsoon rainfall over the Homogeneous Indian Monsoon region (HI) that represents most of the variance of all‐India monsoon rainfall is investigated using observational data from 1880 to 2002. Severe droughts in July occur mostly during El Niño events of the boreal summer monsoon season. They occurred frequently in the late 19th to early 20th century, rarely in the middle of the 20th century, and again occasionally occurred after the 1960s.During El Niño events, severe droughts in July over HI are significantly associated with smaller sea surface temperature‐ (SST) based Indian Ocean Dipole mode index (SSTDMI) in May and July compared to the years without these outstanding events. The evolution of SSTDMI that usually starts around May/June during El Niño events tends to delay when July precipitation over HI is abnormally low. Niño3 values from May through October are not significantly associated with severe droughts over HI in July during El Niño events indicating that the strength of El Niño events is not related to the occurrences of severe droughts in July. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society

Wind profiler observations of a monsoon low-level jet over a tropical Indian station

Abstract. Three-year high-resolution wind observations of the wind profiler have been utilized to characterize the diurnal and seasonal features of the monsoon Low-Level Jet (LLJ) over a tropical station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), with a focus on the diurnal variability of low-level winds. The Boreal summer monsoon winds show a conspicuously strong westerly LLJ with average wind speed exceeding 20 m s−1. The L-band wind profiler measurements have shown an advantage of better height and time resolutions over the conventional radiosonde method for diurnal wind measurements. An interesting diurnal oscillation of LLJ core has been observed. It is varying in the height range of 1.8±0.6 km with the maximum and minimum intensity noticed during the early morning and afternoon hours, respectively. The jet core (wind maxima) height is observed to coincide with the inversion height. Strong wind shears are normally located beneath the LLJ core. The sole wind profiler observations are capable of identifying the monsoon phases, such as onset, break and active spells, etc. The mutual influence between the LLJ and the boundary layer has been discussed. One notices that the observed LLJ diurnal structures depend on the local convective activity, wind shears and turbulence activity associated with boundary layer winds. The day-to-day change in the LLJ structure depends on the latitudinal position of the LLJ core.

Horizontal and Vertical Structures of the Northward-Propagating Intraseasonal Oscillation in the South Asian Monsoon Region Simulated by an Intermediate Model*

Abstract The structures and mechanism of the northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) in the southern Asian monsoon region are simulated and investigated in a three-dimensional intermediate model (3D model). The horizontal structure of the intraseasonal variability in the 3D model depicts the Kelvin–Rossby wave–type disturbance, which may or may not produce the northward-propagating disturbance in the Indian Ocean, depending on the seasonal-mean background winds. Two experiments are conducted in order to identify what characteristic of seasonal-mean background can induce the northwestward-tilted band in the Kelvin–Rossby wave, whose overall eastward movement gives the impression of the northward propagation at a given longitude. When the prescribed boreal summer mean winds are excluded in the first experiment, the phase difference between the barotropic divergence tendency and convection disappears. Consequently, the Rossby wave–type convection forms a zonally elongated band. As a result, the northward propagation of convection at a given longitude disappears. When the easterly vertical shear is introduced in the second experiment, the horizontal and the vertical structures of BSISO become similar to that of the northward-propagating one. The reoccurrence of the northwestward-directed convective band and the phase difference between the barotropic divergence tendency and the convection suggest that the summer mean zonal winds in the boreal Indian summer monsoon region are a critical condition that causes the horizontal and vertical structures of northward-propagating BSISO in the southern Asian monsoon region.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasting of Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: Potential Predictability and Barriers

Abstract Whether seasonally phased-locked persistence and predictability barriers, similar to the boreal spring barriers found for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exist for the tropical Indian Ocean sector climate is investigated using observations and hindcasts from two coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble forecast systems: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) for 1990–2003, and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) system for 1993–2002. The potential predictability of the climate is also assessed under the “perfect model/ensemble” assumption. Lagged correlations of the indices calculated over the east and west poles of the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IDM) index show weak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) persistence barriers in boreal spring at both poles, but the major decline in correlation at the east pole occurs in boreal midwinter for all start months with an almost immediate recovery, albeit negative correlations, until summer approaches. Processes responsible for the change in sign of SSTAs associated with a major IDM event effect a similar change on much weaker SSTAs. At the west pole, a major decline occurs at the end of boreal summer for fall and winter starts when the thermocline deepens with the seasonal cycle and coupling between the ocean and atmosphere is weak. A decline in skillful prediction of SSTA at the east pole over boreal winter is also found in the hindcasts, but the relatively large thermocline depth anomalies are skillfully predicted through this time and skill in SSTA prediction returns. A predictability barrier at the onset of the boreal summer monsoon is found at both IDM poles with some return of skill in late fall. Potential predictability calculations suggest that this barrier may be overcome at the west pole with improvements to the forecast systems, but not at the east pole for forecasts initiated in boreal winter unless the ocean is initialized with a memory of fall conditions.

Features of the Indian Summer Monsoon 2004-Observed and Model Forecasts

The observed and the model forecast rainfall and other atmospheric fields are compared to determine the skill of the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) model in forecasting precipitation and circulation features over India, we compared observed and forecast rainfall and other atmospheric fields for the boreal summer monsoon season of 2004. This season was an important period within the period 4 of the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP). For comparison of observed rainfall with predicted values, station values are averaged over the area represented by each grid point of the model. For other fields, comparisons were made between the analysis and forecast values at the same horizontal resolution. The model showed considerable skill in predicting the daily and seasonal accumulated rainfall amounts when averaged over the whole of India. The predicted all-India average precipitation tends to increase in magnitude with increasing forecast period. The model forecasts that were undertaken especially for the CEOP project reproduced the important features of the summer monsoon over India. The onset of monsoon is captured in terms of both the convective precipitation and diabatic heating fields forecast by the model. Variations in monsoon activity between July and August are also well simulated in the monthly averaged forecast fields for these two months.

Comments on “Structures and Mechanisms of the Northward Propagating Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation”

In a recent article, Jiang et al. (2004) analyzed the northward propagations of the tropical convergence zone during the boreal summer monsoon and proposed a simple theory to explain the scale selection of the propagations. Here, we argue that this mechanism of scale selection relies on the choice of two parameters whose values are not justified in their paper. Furthermore, it appears that the effects of the variation of the Coriolis parameter with latitude Can nort be neglected

Diagnosis of Tropospheric Moisture over Saudi Arabia and Influences of IOD and ENSO

AbstractA diagnostic study of atmospheric moisture data over Saudi Arabia derived from a 43-yr National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis revealed that moisture convergence in the lower troposphere and divergence in and above the middle troposphere occurs throughout the year. Although the amount of precipitable water content in the middle troposphere is high, precipitation is less than expected over this semiarid region during a boreal summer monsoon season because of strong moisture divergence. The net tropospheric moisture flux over the arid and semiarid regions of Saudi Arabia shows seasonal and interannual variability. The seasonal variability has a strong semiannual signal with its primary peak February–April and its secondary peak June–August. This pattern is consistent with a similar semiannual signal observed in rainfall climatology. The restricted moisture supply to southwestern Saudi Arabia during summer presumably explains the lack of precipitation in other areas of the country. Winter precipitation, however, is widespread. The increased transport of net atmospheric moisture flux is higher during El Niño and positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) phenomena. During these events, influx across the Red Sea (west) side of Saudi Arabia increases. The net flux to the region is reduced by a slight increase of outflux across the Persian Gulf (east) side. Reanalysis data and model-sensitivity experiments show that El Niño or a concurrent positive IOD and El Niño event more strongly amplify net transport than does an independent positive IOD event. The partial-lag correlation analysis with net moisture flux from the Red Sea side shows that the positive IOD mode has a peak correlation coefficient of ∼0.5 with close to a 5-month lead and that El Niño has a peak correlation coefficient of ∼0.6 with close to a 2-month lead.

Potential predictability of tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Retrospective 9‐month 15‐member ensemble forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Coupled Forecast System (NCEP CFS) for 1981 to 2003 are used to assess forecast skill and potential predictability of sea‐surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the poles of the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IDM). The CFS successfully forecasts through the boreal winter persistence barrier at the east IDM pole capturing the sign change of the SSTAs. Forecasts are skillful up to 3–4 months lead for first half‐year starts, and into the following boreal spring for second half‐year starts. West IDM pole forecasts are skillful up to 6–7 months lead or until mid‐summer; skill returns in fall for forecasts initiated in boreal summer. Potential predictability of boreal fall SSTAs at lead times of 2–3 seasons appears limited by the onset of the boreal summer monsoon at both IDM poles with weak SSTAs, weak ocean‐atmosphere coupling, and lack of good initialization of the subsurface ocean further hampering forecasts initiated in boreal winter at the east IDM pole.