INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: The indication for a bone scan to evaluate bone metastases in patients with newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) differs among current guidelines. Furthermore, these guideline recommendations have not yet been fully validated. The aim of the study was to externally validate these current guideline recommendations regarding the need for a staging bone scan in patients with newly diagnosed PCa, and to extract which patients in Japan should undergo such a bone scan. METHODS: The study included 508 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed PCa from January, 2005 to December, 2008 at Keio University Hospital. All patients prospectively underwent a bone scan using technetium Tc 99m methylene diphosphonate at diagnosis. We assessed the association between the results of the bone scan and clinicopathological factors, such as PSA, clinical stage, and biopsy Gleason score. The accuracy of the most updated EAU, AUA, NCCN, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC), American College of Radiology (ACR), and Japanese Urological Association (JUA) guidelines indicating the need for a baseline staging bone scan was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC) estimates. RESULTS: A positive bone scan was detected in 18 patients (3.5%). PSA level (p 0.002), clinical stage (p 0.001), Gleason score (p 0.001), and positive biopsy scores (p 0.002) were higher in patients with a positive bone scan than in patients with a negative bone scan. Serum TP (p 0.006) level was far lower and the CRP (p 0.011), ALP (p 0.001), and FNG (p 0.007) levels were much higher in the bone scan positive group. In multivariate analysis, PSA 20 (p 0.001, HR 12.58) and Gleason sum 8 (p 0.025, HR 3.91) were independent predictors for a positive bone scan. The sensitivity was determined to evaluate the validity of each guideline and the values were as follows: EAU 72.2%, AUA/AJCC 77.8%, NCCN 88.9%, JUA 88.9%, and ACR 94.4%. The overall accuracy values were EAU 79.6%, AUA/AJCC 75.6%, NCCN 77.9%, JUA 74.9%, and ACR 65.6%. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study aimed at externally validating the current guideline recommendations addressing the need for staging bone scans in Japanese patients with newly diagnosed PCa. The frequency of a positive bone scan was 3.5%, and PSA 20 and Gleason sum 8 independently predicted a positive bone scan. We believe the indication for a bone scan should be modified and updated, taking into consideration racial differences.
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