Bond Yields Research Articles

Global dynamics of bond co-movements: insights from the response to the US bond yields using wavelet methods

We investigate the impact of U.S. monetary policy on bond yields across 33 countries during the period of January 2015 to August 2023, with a focus on the COVID-19 pandemic. Employing wavelet techniques, we find significant spillover effects of U.S. interest rate adjustments on both advanced and emerging economies, particularly during the pandemic. Advanced economies tend to display stronger co-movements with the U.S. while emerging economies exhibit more volatile responses based on their financial structures and ties to the U.S. market. China demonstrates a relatively autonomous financial response compared to other countries, even during the pandemic. Our findings highlight the importance of proactive policymaking and investment strategies to mitigate adverse effects on financial stability.

The Influence of the Bi Rate, Inflation, and Gross Domestic Product on Bond Yields

The Influence of the Bi Rate, Inflation, and Gross Domestic Product on Bond Yields

The effect of ASC 842 leases on bond yields

This study examines how the formal recognition of lease liabilities required by ASC 842 affects corporate bonds pricing. We document significant bond yield increases with the unexpected off-balance sheet liability revealed by the company. The yield reaction displays an asymmetric pattern, with an increase in yields for previously underestimated operating lease liabilities, but no correction for overestimations. Credit ratings are more likely to be downgraded at firms with severely underestimated operating leases. Collectively, our results suggest that ASC 842 has implications for corporate bond pricing.

The impact of Reserve Bank of India officials' resignations on financial sector returns: An event-study analysis

In this study, we examine the short-term effects of the resignations of high-ranking officials from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on financial sector returns. We apply a commonly used event-study method to analyze financial sector stocks during the period from February 16, 2018, to July 22, 2019. The findings reveal that the financial sector was sensitive to the resignations of RBI Governor Urjit Patel and Deputy Governor Viral Acharya, both strong supporters of the RBI's independence. Patel’s resignation caused a significant negative impact on cumulative abnormal returns, while Acharya’s resignation led to a significant positive impact on these returns. Our results suggest that central bank independence (CBI) may have varied short-term effects on financial sector performance. It is, therefore, important for both politicians and investors to understand the implications of our findings in order to fully grasp the political and economic consequences of central bank independence and the credibility of monetary policy on financial sector outcomes. For future research, we suggest exploring the effects of these resignations on other financial indicators, such as bond yields, exchange rates, and interest rates, using alternative methods.

Management team categories, social network characteristics, and corporate credit risk

We investigate the association between the social networks of management team (AMT) and corporate credit risk using American corporate bond market data. We find that the social network size of AMT is significantly and positively related to corporate bond yield spreads, consistent with the risk-taking mechanism. In addition, the relative social networks of AMT to CEO and subordinate executives to CEO are significantly and positively related to bond yield spreads while that of middle managers to CEO have the opposite association. This implies that relatively greater social networks of subordinate executives could potentially influence the CEO to undertake greater risks, whereas relatively greater social networks of middle managers reduce corporate credit risk mainly through the information-sharing mechanism rather than the risk-taking effect since MM has no direct decision-making authority. Moreover, the variations in social networks among AMT are positively associated with corporate bond yield spreads, suggesting that an inequitable distribution of power among AMT members increases corporate credit risk. Additionally, we find that non-invesment-grade bonds, managerial entrenchment, information asymmetry, and overinvestment all intensify the positive association between AMT social networks and credit risk, namely enhancing the bondholders’ perceptions about the risk-taking mechanism of AMT social networks. Finally, our findings are robust after considering endogeneity concerns and alternative model settings.

Corporate Credit Risk and Bond Yield Spreads: Market Reactions to the Spreads

This article utilizes panel data from corporate bonds between 2014 and 2022 to explore the relationship between corporate credit risk and bond yield spreads. The findings indicate a positive correlation between corporate credit risk and bond yield spreads, a relationship that is mediated through market liquidity. Further analysis reveals that the impact of corporate credit risk on bond yield spreads is more significant in large corporations and in samples post-2018. These findings provide solid empirical support for corporate decision-makers to focus on corporate credit risk.

Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information

I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average higher, with sizable countercyclical variation that arises endogenously. The model helps reconcile the empirical evidence that term premia have been on average positive and countercyclical, with numerous studies pointing to demand shocks as a key driver of business cycles over the last few decades.

U.S. macroeconomic news and low-frequency changes in bond yields in Canada, Sweden and the U.K.

This paper investigates the importance of U.S. macroeconomic news in driving low-frequency fluctuations in the term structure of interest rates in Canada, Sweden, and the U.K. We follow two complementary approaches: First, we apply a regression-based framework that aggregates the impact of daily macroeconomic news on bond yields to a lower quarterly frequency. Next, we estimate a macro-finance affine term structure model linking the daily news to lower-frequency changes in bond yields and its expectations and term premia components. Both approaches show that U.S. macroeconomic news is an important source of lower-frequency quarterly fluctuations in bond yields in these open economies, and even more important than their respective domestic macroeconomic news. Furthermore, the macro-finance model shows that U.S. macroeconomic news is particularly important in explaining low-frequency changes in the expectation components of the nominal, real, and break-even inflation rates.

Public debt stabilization via a stochastic differential game paradigm

In this paper, we examine a public debt stabilization in a country under inflation targeting by arguing that bond yields are sensitive to inflation risks. Endogenously defining the convenience premium function, we focus on fiscal and monetary strategic interactions within an optimal control setting. The level of the debt-to-gross domestic produced (GDP) ratio and current inflation rate of the country are considered as the state variables in the game. We then focus on the convenience risk premium and rate of inflation as market-based disciplining devices, to articulate the Nash noncooperative equilibria, cooperative equilibria and Stackelberg equilibria via a feedback control strategy. We show that the outcome of the game depends on the parameters of the game, the type of equilibrium one considers and the decision horizon. When the current inflation rate follows an uncontrolled Ornstein–Uhlenbeck dynamic process, we highlight its effects on the growth rate of the debt ratio. Hence, our model provides a novel framework in which monetary and fiscal authorities can simultaneously achieve their individual interests, while achieving an optimal debt stabilization policy in the presence of inflation. We also highlight the need for governments to adopt policy-approaches which maintain the debt-to-GDP ratio under an inflation-dependent ceiling.

Exploring the dynamic connections between oil price shocks and bond yields in developed nations: A TVP-SVAR-SV approach

This paper investigates the impact of oil price changes on bond yields across nine developed nations, focusing on how demand, supply, and oil-specific demand shocks influence bond spreads. Using a Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model, we find that bond yields are short-term responsive to oil price fluctuations, indicating efficient domestic bond markets. However, we observe distinct country-specific reactions, particularly in the US and the UK. In the US, supply shocks cause temporary declines in bond yields, while demand shocks reduce bond yields in both countries. Oil-specific demand shocks have cyclical impacts. Unlike the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic uniquely influenced bond yields, with minimal short-term effects in Canada, France, Spain, and the US post-COVID-19, contrasting with the severe impacts during the financial crisis. These findings suggest investors should consider the varying impact of oil shocks on bond yields across countries, and policymakers should monitor and address the potential implications of oil price fluctuations for financial stability and market efficiency.

Determinants of Sustainable Bond Yield among IDX-Listed Companies

Determinants of Sustainable Bond Yield among IDX-Listed Companies

Identifying Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism under a Bayesian Network

This study examines causal relationships among various short- and long-term interest rates in the Korean financial market to identify transmission channels. Monthly time series data from January 2015 to February 2024 were used, covering nine interest rates, including call rates, commercial paper (CP) rates, bank lending rates, and Treasury bond yields of different maturities. The study employs a Bayesian network to identify an acyclic causal structure between interest rates alongside a vector error correction model (VECM) to capture long-term equilibrium relationships and short-term dynamics. The findings reconfirm the traditional call rate transmission mechanism, aligning with conventional monetary policy views, demonstrating the call rate’s significant influence on bank lending rates, which affects corporate bond spreads and CP rates. Additionally, it reveals that 10-year Treasury bond yields form an independent interest rate transmission pathway, a finding not previously identified in the literature. These results underscore the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies due to the distinct transmission pathways of Treasury yields for sustainable macroeconomic management and growth.

In Search of Sustainable Finance

Financial market is expected to play an important role in transition towards more sustainable setup of the business environment. The European Commission published the EU’s Strategy for Financing the Transition to a Sustainable Economy in 2021, requiring the inclusion of environmental, social and governance considerations into investment decision making. Yet, small, open EU economies, such as Slovakia, are in a specific position when implementing this legal framework. For instance, Slovakia does not have any meaningful stock market to speak of, although its bond and collective investment markets perform better. To assess the adoption of sustainable finance elements and to assess the convergence on the Slovak bond market towards standard practice, we investigated current practices on the corporate bond market of nonfinancial corporations. We conducted our research through a review of corporate bonds prospectuses published during 2020-22, in which, to assess current market practices, we examined and evaluated selected criteria and indicators related to issuers and bonds and compared them. These criteria include for example issuer´s business and purpose of finance, form, yield, security, or transferability of bonds. We find that relevant variable criteria and indicators related to reviewed bonds, compared in our research, are similar, indicating that the market converged into a standard practice. Finally, we find almost no evidence of adoption of the sustainable finance elements although there are hints of market uptake of sustainable practices.

Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news

While the relationship between the information content of macroeconomic news and the behavior of asset prices has been studied extensively in the finance literature, this study provides a new perspective by examining the impact of textual news on sovereign bond yield spreads in an emerging country. This study used bond market news published in newspapers to develop the sentiment scores using a modified word dictionary to unravel news characteristics. A nonlinear regime-shifting regression model of Markov Regime Shifting (MRS) is used to understand the impact of news on sovereign bond yield spreads. The paper results show that textual news sentiment may explain both steepening and flattening of the yield curve, with monetary and fiscal policy news having the most significant impact on yield spread behaviour. The results hold key implications for policymakers, debt fund managers and other market participants.

Can U.S. macroeconomic indicators forecast cryptocurrency volatility?

This research examines the ability of 28 U.S. macroeconomic variables to forecast the volatility of six cryptocurrencies. In- and out-of-sample analyses are performed to validate their forecasting ability. Our analysis shows that during the full-sample period, 15 variables display forecasting ability, while post-COVID-19 period, this number is 17. Among these variables, the most influential include the consumer confidence index, leading economic index, consumer price index, U.S. exports and U.S. imports. Importantly, the predictive ability of these variables appears to have strengthened during the post-COVID-19 period. The out-of-sample results confirm the effectiveness of those macroeconomic variables in the in-sample tests. Furthermore, the robustness test reveals that incorporating these U.S. macroeconomic variables can enhance the performance of the GARCH volatility model. In this study, combination methods are used to enhance forecasting stability and are proven to have good forecasting ability. Our research also indicates that integrating global macroeconomic variables can enhance forecasting ability while recognizing the valuable information provided by U.S. macroeconomic variables. Additionally, we find that variables such as the short-term government bond yield and the M1 money supply emerge as important predictors of cryptocurrency bubbles.

International spillovers of conventional versus new monetary policy

We use a calibrated open-economy New Keynesian model to compare the spillovers from conventional and new monetary policy shocks from the US to Canada. We find that shocks with similar effects on the US GDP affect Canada’s private bond yield differently. For example, a forward guidance shock increases Canada’s private bond yield by 0.15%, however a quantitative easing (QE) shock decreases it by 0.13%. Our counterfactual policy simulations for the 2008 crisis show that (1) a more aggressive QE by the Fed would have resulted in a milder recession in the US but a steeper one in Canada. (2) If the Bank of Canada had followed the Fed’s QE policies, the drop in Canada’s GDP would have been much smaller. (3) Finally, if the Fed had implemented a mild negative interest rate policy, the effects on the Canadian economy would be similar to those of the benchmark zero-rate policy.

From global tensions to regional integration: An analysis of bond market convergence in East Asia

Against the backdrop of the Russia–Ukraine (R–U) conflict, this paper investigates the convergence process of the bond market in East Asia from 2010 to 2024, focusing on the impact of the R–U crisis on bond yield convergence. Our findings show convergence toward both benchmarks, with an accelerated rate during the conflict. Malaysia, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines exhibit significant convergence toward Japan, particularly for long-term bonds, while the Philippines consistently converges toward the United States. Large discrepancies in interest rates and inflation spreads cause bond yield divergence, while geopolitical risk related to Russia narrows bond yield spreads, indicating a flight-to-quality effect. Conversely, global financial risk widens yield spreads to the U.S. benchmark but narrows them to Japan. This research highlights bond market convergence in East Asia amid geopolitical tensions, with significant implications for investors, policymakers, and researchers.

The stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium and the interdependence of lending rates

AbstractIn this paper, we introduce test procedures for no fractional cointegration against possible breaks to a fractional cointegrating relationship in a segment of the data. We base the proposed tests on the supremum of the Hassler and Breitung (Econom Theor 22(6):1091–1111, 2006) test statistic for no cointegration over possible breakpoints in the long-run equilibrium. We show that the new tests correctly standardized converge to the supremum of a Chi-squared distribution and that this convergence is uniform. An in-depth Monte Carlo analysis provides results on the finite sample performance of our tests. We then use the new procedures to investigate whether there was a dissolution of fractional cointegrating relationships between the yields of government bonds of eleven EMU countries (Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Belgium, Austria, Finland, the Netherlands, Germany and France) as a consequence of the European debt crisis and to understand the degree of interdependence of lending rates to non-financial corporations across these eleven countries.

Macroeconomic factors and government bond yield in Indonesia

The issuance of bonds by the government attracts the interest of many investors, including foreigners. The government must understand the factors determining bond yields for managing government debt. This study aims to investigate the effect of domestic and global macroeconomic variables on government bond yields in Indonesia. The paper uses monthly data from November 2014 to December 2022. The research sample comprises government bonds with 5, 10, and 15-year tenor bonds. The GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models are applied to estimate and analyze the determinants of government bond yields. Research findings reveal that Indonesian interest rates significantly affect the yield of 10- and 15-year tenor bonds. Inflation has no impact on bond yields across all tenors. The increase in foreign exchange reserves reduces bond yields in all tenors. The Indonesian stock exchange index is detrimental to long-term bond yields. The exchange rate has a positive impact on bond yields in all tenors. World oil prices significantly impact yields on 5- and 10-year tenor bonds. The Fed’s interest rate positively affects the yield on the 15-year tenor bond. The implication of these findings for the Indonesian government is the implementation of several aspects of economic and financial policies that can improve state debt management and financial market stability.

Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

AbstractForeign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non‐U.S. G‐7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads. U.S. and foreign term spreads are both informative of the U.S. economy but over different horizons and for different components of economic activity. Smaller U.S. term spreads lead to smaller foreign term spreads and U.S. Dollar appreciation. Smaller foreign term spreads do not lead to significant U.S. Dollar depreciation but do lead to persistent declines in U.S. exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into the United States. These findings are consistent with the proposition that foreign term spreads embed growth spillovers from the U.S. and the resulting Dollar strength and slowdown abroad spill back to the United States.