Bond Returns Research Articles

Price elasticity of demand and risk-bearing capacity in sovereign bond auctions

Abstract The paper uses bids submitted by primary dealer banks at auctions of sovereign bonds to quantify the price elasticity of demand. The price elasticity of demand correlates strongly with the volatility of returns of the same bonds traded in the secondary market but only weakly with their bid-ask spread. It predicts same-bond post-auction returns in the secondary market, even after controlling for pre-auction volatility. The evidence suggests that the price elasticity of demand is associated with the magnitude of price pressure in the secondary market around auction days and proxies for primary dealer risk-bearing capacity.

Dynamic impact of the US yield curve on green bonds: Navigating through recent crises

We examine the effect of the US yield curve on the global green bond markets at the forefront of the climate change fight. For this purpose, we compute three components (level, slope, and curvature) of the US yield curve based on daily data of the treasury yields with several maturities from January 2009 to June 2022 and employ country-level S&P green bond indices. Our dynamic network analysis shows that the level component of the yield curve is more influential in transmitting return and volatility shocks to green bonds, while curvature is primarily absorptive. The European, the US, and Hong Kong green bonds are the leading players in shock propagation. Both return- and volatility spillovers are time-varying and remain high during periods of systemically important events, especially COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war, supporting the Global Financial Cycle Hypothesis. The war also changes the net behaviors (transmitter versus receiver) of the components and the indices. Investors and issuers of green bonds are advised to keenly observe the shape of the US yield curve and systemic events for better decision-making regarding investment horizons and contagion risk management.

The impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on the true interest cost of bank-qualified tax-exempt bond issues

PurposeThe Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) substantially lowered the corporate tax rate, making tax-exempt municipal bond issues less attractive investments for banks, savings and loan associations and insurance companies. To provide a benefit for small issuers the current Internal Revenue Code has a special provision that allows banks and S&Ls to deduct 80% of the borrowing costs for “bank-qualified” bonds – tax-exempt bonds from issuers who issue no more than $10 million in bonds during a year. This study examines whether the relationship between the true interest cost (TIC) on bank-qualified bonds and other tax-exempt bonds changed with the passage of the TCJA.Design/methodology/approachUsing linear regression analysis this paper compares the TIC of bank-qualified bonds with the TIC of bonds not bank-qualified using a sample of bonds both before and after the passage of TCJA.FindingsPrior to the passage of the TCJA, this study observes that these “bank-qualified” bond issues had a lower true interest cost than other tax-exempt bond issues; however, after passage of the TCJA, the difference in the true interest cost between “bank-qualified” bond issues and other tax-exempt bond issues dramatically decreased.Practical implicationsIt appears that the benefit for small bond issuers is greatly reduced after corporate tax rates were significantly lowered. If federal lawmakers wish small issuers to have the same advantage over other tax-exempt municipal bond issuers after passage of TCJA, some changes will need to be made to the Internal Revenue Code to give small issuers an additional advantage when issuing tax-exempt debt.Originality/valueNo other empirical research to date has examined the impact of TCJA on bank-qualified bond issue interest cost.

Achieving zero emission targets: The influence of green bonds on clean energy investment and environmental quality

The effectiveness of green finance in driving clean energy and environmental sustainability in the current era is receiving attention. Therefore, this study proposes an empirical framework highlighting the effects of green bonds (GB) on clean energy investment (CEI), clean energy investment efficiency (CEE) and environmental sustainability of 29 green bond issuing countries between 2014 and 2022. Using system and difference GMM approaches, this study finds that (i) green bond issuance drives clean energy investment. (ii) Green bonds sufficiently enhance the selected countries' environmental quality. These results supplement the promotion of green bonds in increasing the transfer of funds towards renewable energy projects by reducing reliance on fossil fuels. (iii) Using Driscoll & Kraay, Fully Modified-OLS, and changing the dependent variable, this study further supported the idea that green bonds effectively promote the CEE and environmental sustainability of the chosen countries. (iv) Similarly, this study conducted income heterogeneity, showing that green bonds improve high- and middle-income countries' CEI and environmental quality. (v) Finally, the results indicate that resource consumption escalates CO2 emissions by declining the CEI. Technological innovations increase CEI, whereas they do not mitigate CO2 emissions directly, hinting at the requirement for a comprehensive approach. Therefore, inclusive policies on green bond frameworks, robust incentives, and rigorous environmental criteria should be implemented to attract investment in clean energy development and ensure the environmental sustainability of the selected countries.

Analisis Komparatif Risiko dan Return Pada Saham dan Obligasi di Bursa Efek Indonesia: Implikasi Bagi Investor

This study analyzes the characteristics, risk, and return of stocks and bonds in Indonesia. The data used is historical data on stock and bond prices traded on the IDX during a 10-year period, from 2014 to 2024. The analysis methods used are descriptive analysis, t-test, ANOVA, and multiple linear regression. The results of the study show that stocks offer the potential for higher returns than bonds, but also with higher risk. Bonds offer better income stability and lower risk than stocks. The investment decision between stocks and bonds depends on the individual's risk profile and investment goals. Diversification remains an important investment strategy, regardless of risk profile.

Effect of Energy Consumption on Green Bond Issuance

Green Bonds are fixed-income securities specifically designed to support climate and environmental projects. The demand for the green bond market is growing every day. Green Bonds are gaining importance as they appeal to environmentally conscious investors and are financial instruments that provide economic benefits. The main motivation of this study is to determine whether energy consumption has an effect on green bond issuance. In this context, the relationship between the green bond issuance amounts of 12 countries, including Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, England and the United States, in the years 2014–2021 and the amount of energy consumption in the same period are analysed by panel data analysis. The findings show that there is a significant relationship between coal, peat and oil shale, oil products, natural gas, renewables and waste, electricity and total energy consumption. In the expected direction there is a linear relationship between sustainable energy resources and the green bond issuance.

How Large is the Sovereign Greenium?*

AbstractThis paper assembles a comprehensive sovereign green bond database and estimates the sovereign greenium. The development of green bond markets has been one of the most important financial breakthroughs in the domain of sustainable finance during the last 15 years. A central pecuniary benefit for green bond issuers has been that these bonds exhibit a positive green premium (greenium), that is, a lower yield relative to a similar conventional bond. Yet, issuances at the sovereign level have been relatively recent and not well documented in the literature. We find that green bonds are issued at a relatively small premium (4 basis points on average) in Advanced Economies. Yet, importantly, the greenium is growing over time and is considerably larger (11 basis points on average) for Emerging Market Economies.

Macroeconomic factors and government bond yield in Indonesia

The issuance of bonds by the government attracts the interest of many investors, including foreigners. The government must understand the factors determining bond yields for managing government debt. This study aims to investigate the effect of domestic and global macroeconomic variables on government bond yields in Indonesia. The paper uses monthly data from November 2014 to December 2022. The research sample comprises government bonds with 5, 10, and 15-year tenor bonds. The GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models are applied to estimate and analyze the determinants of government bond yields. Research findings reveal that Indonesian interest rates significantly affect the yield of 10- and 15-year tenor bonds. Inflation has no impact on bond yields across all tenors. The increase in foreign exchange reserves reduces bond yields in all tenors. The Indonesian stock exchange index is detrimental to long-term bond yields. The exchange rate has a positive impact on bond yields in all tenors. World oil prices significantly impact yields on 5- and 10-year tenor bonds. The Fed’s interest rate positively affects the yield on the 15-year tenor bond. The implication of these findings for the Indonesian government is the implementation of several aspects of economic and financial policies that can improve state debt management and financial market stability.

The impact of green bond issuance on carbon emission intensity and path analysis.

Reducing carbon emission intensity is crucial for achieving sustainable development. Carbon emission intensity is expressively affected by the issuance of green bonds. Thus, it is imperative to assess the influence of green bond issuance on carbon emissions and examine their correlation. Such research holds great potential to expedite the overhaul and modernization of businesses and to construct a circular economy system. This paper uses the spatial Durbin model to draw empirical conclusions by using data from 26 provinces in China between 2016 and 2021. Firstly, under different spatial matrices, it has been analyzed that an increase of 1% in the issuance of green bonds leads to a reduction of 0.306% or 0.331% in carbon emission intensity. It shows that green bonds have the potential to substantially reduce carbon intensity. Additionally, the intensity of emissions in the current period is driven by the intensity of emissions in the previous period. Secondly, the analysis of mediated transmission suggests that green bonds can ultimately reduce carbon emission intensity by changing the energy consumption structure or improving the efficiency of green technology innovation. Thirdly, the analysis of heterogeneity shows that the inhibitory effect of green bond issuance on carbon emissions is stronger in less economically developed regions than in economically developed regions. There is a significant inhibitory effect of green bond issuance in neighboring provinces on local carbon emission intensity. This effect is present only in provinces in less economically developed regions and not in economically developed regions.

Oil prices and developing stock markets: Evidence from East Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced unprecedented complexity in the relationship between oil prices and stock markets. This work employs a Threshold Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework to analyze this relationship, focusing on two distinct periods: pre-mid-June 2020 and post-mid-June 2020, marked by the onset of the second wave of the pandemic. By examining financial variables including stock and bond returns, exchange rates, and WTI crude oil prices, this research identifies significant differences in market dynamics across these periods. The results indicate that the statistical significance and behavior of the WTI index vary, which is particularly evident in China’s stock market. Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) reveal that Region 1 (pre-mid-June 2020) experienced more pronounced market fluctuations in response to shocks, while Region 2 (post-mid-June 2020) demonstrated increased resilience and adaptability. These findings show heightened stock market vulnerability to oil price shocks during periods of economic policy uncertainty. Consequently, policymakers are advised to put forward adaptive approaches to financial regulation and economic policy, emphasizing market flexibility in response to exogenous shocks and tailoring responses to the specific dynamics of each market.

Green bond issuance and credit risk: International evidence

We present the first empirical study of the impact of corporate green bond issuance announcements on issuer credit risk, as measured by their CDS spreads. We use a broad international sample of 1,048 green bonds issued between 2013 and 2022 by 200 entities from 26 countries. Our analysis reveals a significant, though not uniform, reaction in the CDSs. The sector of activity emerges as a critical determinant, particularly with respect to environmental exposure. While sectors highly exposed to environmental risk exhibit a reduction in issuer credit risk, all others, especially financial entities, react in the opposite direction. Our study highlights that the impact on credit risk is influenced by several other factors, including the issuer’s overall ESG score, its E score, and various country-level metrics such as development level, environmental performance and political rights. We also identify other factors that affect credit risk, such as green bond ratings and operating cash flow.

Role of collaborative governance in unlocking private investment in sustainable projects

This scholarly investigation scrutinizes the involvement of the private sector in environmentally sustainable projects, employing the cross-sectional autoregressive distributed lag methodology on yearly data spanning from 2000 to 2020 across 11 low and lower-middle-income Asian nations. It specifically assesses the influence of the good governance index. Findings indicate a notable correlation, where a 1% enhancement in the index corresponds to a 0.34% increase in private engagement in green projects in the short term and a 0.64% increase in the long term. The study underscores the significance of economic stability; a 1% escalation in uncertainty leads to a 0.56% short term and 0.73% long-term reduction in private participation. It underscores the driving role of gross domestic product growth and the proliferation of small and medium-sized enterprises, emphasizing the necessity for tailored financial instruments to stimulate private investment in green projects. Moreover, it explores practical policy avenues such as e-government services, information and communication technology-driven digital transformation, sustainable corporate governance, and issuance of state-backed green bonds to foster private-sector participation in eco-friendly initiatives. Future research avenues encompass examining the repercussions of the pandemic on private green investments and evaluating the efficacy of the public-private partnership model in green projects across these economies.

CONTRIBUTION OF FOREIGN DEBT, SUKUK, AND BONDS IN INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

Introduction: Indonesia's economic growth experiences unstable conditions from year to year, The study explores their impact on Indonesia's inability to overcome government spending problems by comparing three alternative sources of Indonesian state income to support economic growth, namely foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds. Methods: The research uses a quantitative approach derived from secondary data in the form of time series data. Foreign debt has a negative effect on Indonesia's economic growth, while sukuk and bonds have a positive effect on Indonesia's economic growth. Results: The simultaneous result is 0.948, meaning that the independent variables (foreign debt, Sukuk, and bonds) have an influence and can be explained by 94.8% of Indonesia's economic growth. Meanwhile, the remaining 5.2% is explained by other variables that are not in this research. This indicates that the foreign debt sukuk and bonds variables have a big influence on Indonesia's economic growth in 2016-2023. Conclusion and suggestion: Foreign debt must be controlled properly by the state so that an economic crisis does not occur in Indonesia. Apart from that, the government must increase the issuance of sukuk and bonds to meet the needs of the deficit APBN.

Analyzing the institutional environment for the issuance of green bonds in Asian countries

Analyzing the institutional environment for the issuance of green bonds in Asian countries

Green bonds and environmental performance: The effect of management attention

AbstractGreen bonds have attracted significant interest in the business and financial sectors, yet the environmental performance outcomes among issuing firms have been uneven. Drawing on the attention‐based view framework, this study examines the role of corporate green bond issuance in directing attention to environmental issues across organizational levels. Additionally, we investigate how internal conditions, such as growth, profitability, and indebtedness, influence the translation of attention into improved environmental performance. Using a matched sample of 160 paired firms from 23 countries and nine sectors, our results emphasize the significance of both green bond intensity and internal conditions in shaping how green bonds impact environmental performance. These results contribute to the fields of sustainable finance and attention‐based view theory, offering new insights into the influence of green bonds on firms' environmental performance.

Social media and cost of debt financing: Evidence from stock forum text analysis

AbstractIn this article, we examine whether and how small investors’ social media activity is associated with subsequent bond credit spreads. We use extensive data from posts/comments on social media 30 days before the bond issuance announcement date to identify their implied power and find that the more posts/comments, the smaller the bond issuance spreads. We further find that information quality improvement of posts increases this negative relation between social media activity and bond cost, and that posts directly related to issuers’ fundamentals and/or debt financing drive our main results. Additional tests show that the effect is more salient when there is a greater demand for information quality or when macroeconomic conditions worsen.

Exploring the influence of green bonds on sustainable development through low-carbon financing mobilization

Purpose The purpose of this study to brought new dimensions by inserting market conditions and investor sentiments as independent variable measure their impact on government policy formulation and sustainable development. This research also measures the moderating effective stakeholder engagement. Previous research has focused on demystifying the relationship between green bonds and sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach The analysis part of the research is initiated by factor analysis on the sample size of 100. After the construction of appropriate statements matching the research objective, it was circulated to the respondents of northern region of India. The sampling technique was random in nature through which data analysis on 700 respondents was done. For meeting research objectives present research applies PLS algorithm on the conceptual model framed through review of literature. Findings Out of all independent variables green bond issuance is having statistically significant impact on government policy formulation and investors’ sentiment is having statistically significant impact on sustainable development. Rest all other pairs are statistically insignificant. For an investor, it is necessary to understand that how its sentiments impacts government policy formulation and the health of ecology. Practical implications The research produced results with management implications for practitioners and policy makers that are very significant to the fields of sustainability, green finance and environmental policy. Green bonds also influence government policy, illustrating how green financing may revolutionize environmental laws and regulations. Social implications The social implications of this revelation are considerable. The research enhances knowledge about sustainable development by emphasizing the importance of green bonds in supporting environmentally friendly activities. It allows for transparent reporting, increasing social accountability and reputation while attracting environmentally conscious consumers and fostering community trust. According to the survey, investor sentiment and their enthusiasm for eco-friendly investments may push more money to efforts that are good for society and the environment. This study enhances consciousness about sustainable finance, which has the potential to inspire beneficial social shifts towards a more environmentally and socially equitable future. Originality/value These social ramifications manifest themselves in various socioeconomic and environmental issues of the society in addition to credit and public policy. Second, it is evident that green bond emissions are influencing government policy, demonstrating the power of financial instruments to encourage environmentally beneficial social outcomes by providing officials with an incentive to modify environmental regulations.

Attitudes of Soviet Citizens towards State Loans 1946-1957 after their Cancellation (Based on Personal Source Materials)

The article explores the issue of public attitudes of Soviet citizens towards measures of state financial policy. It examines the sentiments of USSR citizens after the cessation of campaigns related to the issuance of government bonds from 1946 to 1957. The primary sources of information were letters from citizens addressed to Soviet government bodies, as well as diary entries. The study relies on methodological achievements in the “history of emotions.” It was revealed that after the abolition of compulsory subscription campaigns for domestic state loans, the key issue became the repayment of the state debt. It is shown that citizens placed high hopes on the revision of decisions by N. S. Khrushchev after his resignation in 1964. Their attempts to engage in dialogue with authoritative structures and leaders were made repeatedly before the official redemption began, but they did not contribute to a review of earlier decisions until 1974. The study demonstrates that the gradual redemption of bonds in the 1970s-1980s contributed to the establishment of a social compromise, and the practice of mass loans transformed from a measure of current financial and social policy into a subject for historical reflection, discussion, and nostalgia.

Does time-varying risk aversion sentiment matter in the connectedness among Sub-Saharan African bond markets?

Several bond markets in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are defaulting due to hiking spreads amid the stressed states introduced by the COVID-19 pandemic and the geopolitical risk tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Are there controllable factors that drive these markets? We investigate the dynamic connection shared by SSA bond markets and assess the role of investor sentiment measures, focusing on the risk aversion sentiment of international investors. Our results, across different trading horizons, are expected to aid in the formulation of policies for regulating and developing bond markets of emerging economies, particularly SSA. In terms of both return and volatility of SSA bonds, we find risk aversion sentiment an important transmitter of spillover for all investment horizons.

Green bonds: Fueling green innovation or just a fad?

This study investigates the impact of green bond issuance on green innovation and its underlying mechanisms. We find that green bond issuance promotes green innovation, with stronger effects observed in regions with weaker climate regulation, industries exhibiting better environmental performance, and firms with more concentrated ownership. Further analysis reveals that corporate green bonds facilitate the reallocation of investment capital into research and development, effectively mitigating financial constraints on green innovation. This upsurge in green innovation not only enhances financial performance but also yields specific environmental benefits, such as improved environmental investment and ESG performance. These empirical results underscore the significance of green finance in fostering sustainable corporate innovation and advancing climate governance, rather than merely engaging in greenwashing practices.