Bond Maturity Research Articles

The fluctuating maturities of convertible bonds

The maturities of newly issued convertible bonds vary substantially over time. Firm-specific determinants of maturity from the straight debt literature are relevant for convertible bonds. However, the growth of the convertible arbitrage industry and the role of convertible arbitrage hedge funds have changed the importance of firm characteristics in the convertible bond market. Recently issued convertible bonds come with particularly short maturities that serve as substitutes for call provisions. This substitution implies that backdoor-equity and sequential-financing rationales for issuing callable convertible bonds are also applicable for non-callable convertibles with shorter maturities.

The Causal Effect of the Fed's Corporate Credit Facilities on Eligible Issuer Bonds

We use a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the causal effects of the Federal Reserve's Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities (CCFs) on corporate bond credit spreads. In particular, we exploit the publication of the constituents of the SMCCF Broad Market Index to accurately identify eligible issuers and compare bonds of similar maturity and rating across differentially eligible issuers to measure the causal effect of the CCFs on eligible issuer bond spreads. We estimate that eligible issuer bonds enjoy an additional 51 bps to 85 bps reduction in spreads, relative to ineligible issuer bonds. This effect increases to between 71 bps and 115 bps of additional spread reduction when restricting bonds to maturities of less than five years, the maturity segment eligible for the SMCCF purchases. We also chronicle the response of eligible and ineligible bond spreads to key events. We find that both the absolute and relative response in bond spreads depend on the content of the Fed's policy announcements, as well as the particular securities being purchased. We find evidence of bond spread tightening due to improvements in bond liquidity on the initial CCF announcement date on March 23 for eligible issuer bonds, as well as at the start of SMCCF bond purchases on June 16 for ineligible issuer bonds. We contend that the portfolio re-balance channel may explain why ineligible issuer bonds experienced improvements in liquidity, despite not being the ones purchased.

International investment positions revisited: Investor heterogeneity and individual security characteristics

AbstractThis paper contributes to the literature by empirically documenting the importance of investor heterogeneity and security level characteristics for international investment positions. We estimate a standard gravity model to explain holdings in individual bonds and stocks for euro area investors covering 2013Q4–2018Q4. First, our results confirm the importance of market size and distance, but there are significant differences between banks, insurance companies and pension funds, investment funds, households and other investors. Second, we show the statistical significance and economic relevance of security characteristics such as currency, bond maturity and dividend yield. Third, the results are robust to including domestic holdings.

Tail risk in the European sovereign bond market during the financial crises: Detecting the influence of the European Central Bank

Since 2008, the European Central Bank (ECB) is conducting an expansionary monetary policy on an unprecedented scale. The consequence is a historical low interest rate environment in the eurozone and inflated prices for the majority of euro area government bonds. This paper presents a study of the tail behavior of triple-A rated euro area government bonds during the financial crisis 2007/08, the European sovereign debt crisis and the episode of expansionary monetary policy by the ECB. First, the analysis determines whether daily returns of euro area government bonds exhibit fat tails. Second, tests are conducted for variation in tail risk among euro area government bonds with different maturities. Third, it is estimated whether the tail behavior has significantly changed during the financial crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and the resulting market interventions by the ECB. The study is based on daily data of the spot yield curve for triple-A rated euro area government bonds with a remaining maturity from three months to thirty years. Evidence is found for fat tails for the left-and right-hand side of the return distribution for all considered bond maturities in the sample. Moreover, the results indicate a convex term structure of tail risks and a structural change in the tail behavior of short-term bonds with a remaining maturity of less than one year during the past two crises. In contrast, the test outcomes for the majority of the considered long-term bonds do not indicate any significant change in the tail behavior, despite the introduction of unconventional asset purchase programs by the ECB which directly target these securities.

Local Government Bonds, Land Finance and Systematic Financial Risk

Local government debt plays an important role in promoting economic development, but with the continuous expansion of the scale of local government debt, coupled with the opacity of financial and debt information, local debt risk may be directly transformed into financial risk. Therefore, the potential mechanism of local government debt risk inducing systemic financial risk is studied to strictly control local government debt and prevent it at present. It is of great practical significance to mitigate systemic financial risk. At present, the research on local government debt mainly focuses on the mechanism of local government debt to amplify economic fluctuations, while the potential mechanism of local government debt risk to induce systemic financial risk is relatively few. From the perspective of local government bonds and land finance, the innovation of this paper is to depict the Chinese elements such as the maturity of local government bonds, the opacity of debt and financial information, and to integrate local government debt, land finance and financial intermediaries into the framework of general equilibrium to analyze the potential mechanism of systemic financial risk induced by local debt risk. This study finds that when the economy is facing negative productivity shocks, the decline in total output will inhibit the land demand of households and enterprises, and the decline in land prices caused by the decline in demand will reduce the land-related fiscal revenue of local governments. On the one hand, the decline of land-related fiscal revenue will reduce government expenditure; on the other hand, it will increase the pressure on local governments to repay debt and the risk of debt, which will lead to the rise of bond interest rates and the decline of bond prices. Lower bond prices will affect the balance sheet of financial intermediaries, resulting in increased leverage and risk premium of financial intermediaries. Under the balance sheet constraints, financial intermediaries will shrink corporate credit, resulting in an increase in systemic financial risk. Rising interest rates and tightening credit will restrain enterprises’ investment and land demand, further reduce total output and land prices, increase the debt risk of local governments, and form a financial accelerator mechanism in the economy, which will lead to the mutual reinforcement of the debt risk and financial risk of local governments and form a vicious circle. In addition, when financial risk rises, the default risk of local government debt is lower. Based on the trade-off between risk and return, financial intermediaries will hold more local government bonds. Credit squeeze brought by asset allocation changes will further strengthen the financial accelerator mechanism and strengthen the interaction between debt risk and financial risk. Meanwhile, although extending the bond maturity can reduce the pressure of local governments to repay their debt in the short term, the longer the bond maturity is, the greater the financial shock and economic volatility caused by local government debt risk are. The paper indicates that: for resolving local government debt risk and reducing the probability of systemic risk, we firstly need to improve the local government bond market, diversify local government bond investors, and change the current situation dominated by commercial banks; secondly, we should strengthen budget constraints and control the scale of local government debt; thirdly, we should rationally design the maturity structure of local government bonds, strengthen the transparency of local government finance and debt information, and play the role of market constraints; finally, when financial risk rises, the central bank can adopt non-traditional monetary policy to intervene in the market, which can reduce financial risk and social welfare losses.

Valuing Private Equity Strip by Strip

We propose a new valuation method for private equity investments. It first constructs a cash-flow replicating portfolio using cash-flows on various listed equity and fixed income instruments (strips). It then values the listed strips using a flexible asset pricing model that accurately captures the systematic risk in bonds of different maturities and a broad cross-section of equity factors. The method delivers a risk-adjusted profit on each PE investment and a time series for the expected return on each PE fund category. It avoids using realized discount rates and has good small-sample properties. We apply the method to the universe of PE funds. Under our more comprehensive risk model, we find negative risk-adjusted profits for the average fund in most PE categories. Substantial cross-sectional variation and persistence in performance suggests some funds outperform. Expected returns and risk-adjusted profit decline in the later part of the sample.

PENGARUH KUPON, MATURITAS, LIKUDITAS DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP YIELD OBLIGASI KORPORASI

The performance of bonds reflect from bond yields that are useful as information in making investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of coupon, maturity, liquidity and interest rate of the corporate bond yields This research was conducted on all companies that issue corporate bonds and are listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange on 2015-2017 periods. with a total sample of 44 bonds from 23 companies through non purposive sampling technique. Data analysis technique used multiple linear regression analysis and methods of data collection in this study using non-participant observation. Based on data analysis indicate that coupon, maturity, and interest rate partially positive and significant effect on bond yields. By contrast, liquidity partially negative and significant effect on bond yields.
 Keyword : coupon, maturity, liquidity and interest rate , bond yields
 

Confederation debt management since 1970

This paper analyzes the Confederation’s debt management. The Confederation actively manages roll over and interest rate risk by increasing bond maturity with increasing marketable debt-to-GDP levels. It further engages in active but asymmetric, one-sided interest rate positioning; i.e., it uses mostly bonds to affect debt maturity and does so only when the interest rate environment is favorable to lock-in interest rates by issuing longer-term bonds. Debt management is mainly driven by marketable debt rather than total debt. Issuing behavior became more regular and demand-oriented during the early 1990s when marketable and total debt increased in tandem.

Carry Investing on the Yield Curve

Bond carry is the expected return on a bond when the yield curve does not change. The curve carry strategy within each country constructs buckets based on bond maturities on a monthly basis and buys the government bond buckets with high carry while selling those with low carry. Combining these curve carry strategies for 13 countries, we found a global curve carry factor with an information ratio of 1.0. Returns to a global curve carry factor cannot be explained by value or momentum, and the strategy subsumes the betting-against-beta factor.

Time-varying risk aversion and the predictability of bond premia

We show that time-varying risk aversion captures significant predictive information over excess returns on U.S. government bonds even after controlling for a large number of financial and macro factors. Including risk aversion improves the predictive accuracy at all horizons (one- to twelve-months ahead) for shorter maturity bonds and at shorter forecast horizons (one- to three-months ahead) for longer maturity bonds. Given the role of Treasury securities in economic forecasting models and portfolio allocation decisions, our findings have significant implications for investors, policymakers and researchers interested in accurately forecasting return dynamics for these assets.

Pengaruh Maturity, Peringkat Obligasi, dan Debt to Equity Ratio terhadap Yield to Maturity Obligasi

Bonds are a long-term contract in which the borrower agrees to make interest and principal payments on the due date. Bonds offer a yield (rate of return) for investors. One measure of the yields most often used by investors in investing is yield to maturity. Yield to maturity is the compounded rate of return that investors will receive if they buy bonds at current market prices and hold the bonds to maturity.The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of maturity, bond rating and debt to equity ratio on yield to maturity of corporate bonds. This research is a basic research using associative method with quantitative approach The research population is all corporate bonds are listed on BEI in 2014-2017. Sample selection in this research using purposive sampling method. The sample used in this research is 30 companies with the number of bonds issued as many as 87 bonds for the year 2014-2017. Data analysis method used in this research is multiple linear regression analysis with hypothesis testing using SPSS 23 for windows program. The results shows that maturity and bond rating affect the yield to maturity of bonds while debt to equity ratio does not affect yield to maturity of bonds. Suggestions for further research is adding to the researchers period and adding other variables that may affect the yield to maturity of bonds.

Investment Opportunities Identification Based on Macroeconomic Development, the Multiple Criteria Decision Approach

The aim of this work is to develop a “learning model” which outranks countries according to their confrontation of historical macroeconomic indicators for a given period of time with the spreads at the end of that time and to formulate a forward-looking investment strategy regarding government bonds for the following time period. The mechanism of identifying investment opportunities among government bonds is based on the multiple criteria decision making technique, and we look to the Promethee II method as a symmetry approach to country ordering. The spread is defined as the difference between the yield to maturity of the 10-year government bond of a country and the Germany government bond with the same maturity. In this paper, an optimization approach based on three models is developed to find the weights of importance for macroeconomic characteristics, together with a sensitivity analysis on changes in these characteristics. The method was applied to 17 European countries characterized by 16 macroeconomic characteristics. The originality of this paper lies in the two-stage approach to the investment strategy construction based on criteria weights optimization with stability intervals for their values.

Customer concentration, institutions, and corporate bond contracts

AbstractWe examine the effect of customer concentration, the quality of institutions, and their interaction on corporate bond contract terms in China. We find that higher customer concentration is associated with higher bond spreads, shorter bond maturity, and more bond covenants. In contrast, better institutions are associated with lower bond spreads, longer bond maturity, and fewer bond covenants. Moreover, we find that the adverse or unfavourable association between customer concentration and bond contract terms is weakened for firms operating within better institutions or for firms whose ultimate owners are the Central Government of China. Furthermore, the adverse association between customer concentration and bond contract terms is more pronounced when a supplier's major customers have lower switching costs or when the supplier has made more relationship‐specific investments. Finally, our main results are robust to controls for endogeneity concerns and other sensitivity checks. Overall, our findings suggest that bondholders view customer concentration as a risk factor but better institutions as a protection.

PENGARUH TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA, BOND RATING, UKURAN PERUSAHAAN, DEBT TO EQUITY RATIO (DER) TERHADAP YIELD TO MATURITY OBLIGASI KORPORASI DI BEI PERIODE TAHUN 2010-2012.

<p><em>This study aimed to analyze the effects of interest rates, bond rating, company size, and debt to equity ratio (DER) of the yield to maturity (YTM) of corporate bonds in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Previous researches showed different results, therefore, it is necessary to re- study by testing the four variables on the yield to maturity.</em></p><p><em>The population in this study was all corporate bonds listed and traded on the Stock Exchange in the period of 2010-2012. There were 324 bonds. Based on the Purposive sampling criteria, 66 bonds were obtained. The research hypothesis was tested by multiple linear regression (multiple regression) and the analysis tools were company's financial statements, market price of the bond, SBI interest rate and bond ratings.</em></p><p><em>The results showed that the variable interest rates and the debt to equity ratio did not significantly affect the yield to maturity of the bonds. Variable bond rating and company size gave significant</em><em> </em><em>n</em><em>e</em><em>g</em><em>a</em><em>ti</em><em>ve</em><em> </em><em>ef</em><em>f</em><em>ec</em><em>t</em><em>s</em><em> </em><em>ontheyield</em><em> </em><em>t</em><em>omaturity</em><em> </em><em>of</em><em> </em><em>t</em><em>he</em><em> </em><em>bonds.</em><em></em></p>

European Monetary Union bond market dynamics: Pre & post crisis

The Sharpe ratio emerges as one of the most popular metrics used in the evaluation of investment performance despite the wide range of alternatives that have been proposed by academics and practitioners. In the proposed research, risks and returns are analysed on the European Monetary Union bonds market, with different bonds ratings and maturities, in the period from 2005 to 2017. The past and current trends and patterns in bond returns are defined using the methods of statistic correlation and econometric analysis. It was shown that the bond returns are not normally distributed, and that the return on distribution depends on bond maturity and the economic situation in the market. The relation between volatility and bond maturity and the Sharpe ratio appeared to be non-linear and inconsistent over time. However, the hypothesis about the inverse relation between the Sharpe ratio and bond maturity is not supported by the evidence. Finally, with the help of time-series models it was proven that in the period from 2005 to 2017, the returns on European Monetary Union bonds market declined over time. ARIMA models were used to analyse the residuals from the bond returns.

ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL AND NON FINANCIAL FACTOR IN PREDICTING BANK BOND RATING LISTED INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE

This study aims to analyze the effect of solvency, liquidity, profitability, bond maturity, and auditor reputation on the predictions of bond rating in the sub-sector companies of the bank. The population in this study are all bank’s sub-sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2017. The samples in this study are 16 companies for 5 years. The analytical method used in this study is logistic regression analysis.The results showed that solvency has negative effect on bond rating predictions. Liquidity, profitability, have significant and positive effect on bond rating predictions. While the bond maturity and auditor's reputation have no significant and possitif effect on bond rating predictions.

Extrapolating Long-Maturity Bond Yields for Financial Risk Measurement

Insurance companies and pension funds have liabilities far into the future and typically well beyond the longest maturity bonds trading in fixed-income markets. Such long-lived liabilities still need to be discounted, and yield curve extrapolations based on the information in observed yields can be used. We use dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) yield curve models for extrapolating risk-free yield curves for Switzerland, Canada, France, and the U.S. We find slight biases in extrapolated long bond yields of a few basis points. In addition, the DNS model allows the generation of useful financial risk metrics, such as ranges of possible yield outcomes over projection horizons commonly used for stress-testing purposes. Therefore, we recommend using DNS models as a simple tool for generating extrapolated yields for long-term interest rate risk management. [The first version of this paper was July 6, 2018.]

Clientele Effects Explain the Decline in Corporate Bond Maturities

The average maturity of newly issued corporate bonds has declined substantially over the past 40 years, and the traditional determinants of debt maturity fail to explain this decrease fully. We show that the changing composition of the investors in the corporate bond market affects the maturity of new bond issues. The results of a Granger causality test, a natural experiment, and a regulatory study suggest that a decline in ownership share of insurance companies—which prefer long-term bonds—in the corporate bond market explains the maturity decline. These findings illustrate how investor preferences can have real effects on corporations.

Preferred habitat and the term structure of interest rates in DSGE models

ABSTRACTThe aim of the present study is to use an alternative approach to derive the term structure of interest rates in DSGE models, which is based on the theory of preferred habitat. We show that this approach yields a substantial term premium which is time-variant. In particular, by introducing bonds of longer maturity, we avoid the underestimation of the volatility of the output. In addition, by allowing longer-term bonds, we show that output is more responsive to technology shocks than it would otherwise. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing output around the nonstochastic level is more difficult to achieve.

Long‐term government debt and household portfolio composition

Formal dynamic analyses of household portfolio choice in the literature focus on holdings of equity and a risk‐free asset or bonds of different maturities, neglecting the interdependence of the decisions to invest in equity, short‐term and long‐term bonds made by households. Data from the Survey of Consumer Finances is used to derive stylized facts about participation in the long‐term government‐debt market and conditional portfolio shares. To explain the mechanisms underlying these facts, I draw on a life‐cycle model in which investors have access to three financial assets—equity, long‐term debt, and a riskless short‐term bond—and are exposed to uninsurable idiosyncratic risk through nonfinancial income as well as aggregate risk through the asset returns. An application shows that the low Treasury returns observed in the US between 2009 and 2013 have quantitatively significant yet transitory effects on the composition of household portfolios. In combination with the observed rise in stock returns, they lead to persistent changes in the participation rate, the conditional portfolio shares, and the distribution of wealth.