Bloc Countries Research Articles

Fragmentation in International Investment and Trade

Abstract We study the signs of fragmentation—that is, the process of weakening economic interdependence between blocs of countries—in world trade and investment during the U.S.–China trade war (2018–21) relative to the period preceding it (2014–17). We show that although bilateral flows between the United States and China have been badly hurt, there is still little evidence of a wider fragmentation, even for technology intensive manufactures. We find some shifts in global trade, especially toward Central and Eastern Europe and ASEAN countries. This may reflect partial reshuffling of global value chains but is not necessarily driven by geoeconomic factors. Both China and the United States have been favoring these regions during the trade war.

A comparative analysis on how much individuals are left behind in the former state socialist countries of the European Union

This paper examines the extent to which individuals from the former state socialist countries of the EU’s Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries have been left behind compared to the rest of EU individuals from Western European (WE) countries and across countries within the CEE bloc. To this end, a fuzzy approach is applied to a multidimensional setting made up of income, material deprivation, and work intensity to measure the ‘Leaving no one behind’ (LNOB) principle of the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda. A certain process of convergence is found between both blocs of countries over the period 2007–2019 due to a decrease in the level individuals were left behind in the CEE countries, as well as an increase in the level individuals were left behind in the WE countries in the years following the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Significant cross-country disparities in the degree individuals lag behind are also revealed among the CEE countries related to the different models of post-socialist capitalism established in these countries and their subsequent development after joining the EU.

Aid and developing regional integration

This paper examines megatrends and interdependence of the loan aid-capital investment links across developing regions. Theoretically, it contributes to the existing studies by providing a novel theoretical framework with a dual-objective donor-giving grant (driven by a benevolent objective) and loan aid (profitability motive), as well as a public–private partnership-like investment structure and multi-region feedback mechanism. Empirically, this paper adds to the literature by allowing for cross-heterogeneity and interdependencies across regions of loan aid-capital investment link. We estimate a panel structural VAR model of grant aid, loan aid, private consumption, and aggregate capital stock using data from nine developing regional country blocs covering the 1961-2017 period. Amidst a generally weak aid-investment link, we find loan aid to Granger causes capital accumulation, and among African regions, it is the most (least) productive – in terms of within- and spillover effects – in the IGAD (ECOWAS) region. In addition, our results suggest deeper regional integration between the Sub-Saharan African regions than the collective Latin American & Caribbean regions and the two Southern Asian regions (Southeast Asia and South Asia) examined.

TERRITORY, NETWORKING AND REGIONAL POLICIES: REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT AGENCIES OF THE POST-TRANSITION EU MEMBER STATES

RDAs - regional development agencies have a long development path in Europe since the early 1960s until today. RDAs are directed to the regions of the countries that implement it, but it also applies to the national level as well as to the level of the EU (which comes to the fore with the country's accession to full membership). In addition to the significant differences in the level of development of the regions of the EU Member States, there are also significant differences in the development of the regions of 11 post-transition EU Member States (Bulgaria, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Croatia). Because they all belonged to the former "socialist bloc of countries" and broke their state alliances with the former states in the early 1990s, as well as because they did not have the same historical circumstances or the same timing for joining the EU, all this had and still has an important role on the uneven development of their regions. But, RDAs do not play the same role and importance in all post-transition countries, which reflects the specificity of their regional development management systems and makes it necessary to examine the role and importance of RDAs' work. This paper will analyze: 1) the role and development of RDAs in post-transition EU member states, and 2) the institutional framework of RDAs with an attempt to find innovative transformations of the role of RDAs that respect the framework of EU regional policies.

Mitigating emissions in major oil-exporting countries: accounting for the role of natural resources rents, institutional quality, and business environment

ABSTRACTThe present research investigates the linkage between natural resources rent and environmental quality taking into the role of the institutional and business environments. It uses a sample of 15 major oil-exporting countries throughout 2008–2020 and performs the Systems Generalized Method of Moment (SGMM) as an empirical approach. Findings confirm that natural resource rent deteriorates the environmental quality since its coefficient is found to be positively and significantly linked to the dependent variable (CO2 emissions). After dividing the sample into MENA oil-exporting countries and Non-MENA exporting countries, different results were found between these two blocs of countries. Additionally, institutional quality and the environment business are found to play an important role in mitigating the negative impact of natural resources rent on environmental quality. Many lessons could be drawn from this research and many interesting policy implications were drawn from the findings. Policymakers of these countries should work on preserving and protecting the quality of their environment. Policymakers in these countries, notably MENA oil-exporting countries, are invited to invest in clean energy. Additionally, an improvement of the institutional quality and the environment business is needed since they mitigate the negative impact of natural resources rent.

Zulfikarpašić-Milošević agreement in 1991.

Historical Background and the Emergence of New Bibliographic Units in the Context of the Contemporary Political Moment Demand a Reevaluation of Previous Interpretations Related to Events in the Territory of the Former Socialist Yugoslavia. This paper focuses on the Historical Agreement, also known as the Zulfikarpašić-Milošević Agreement, initiated by Muslims (Bosniaks). The agreement was intended as a peace and political initiative but came late in the context of the war in Croatia and the policy of regionalization pursued by the Serbian side in Bosnia and Herzegovina. After leaving the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Adil Zulfikarpašić founded the Muslim Bosniak Organization (MBO), with the support of academician Muhamed Filipović. Dissatisfied with the policies of the SDA, Zulfikarpašić and Filipović sought to address the crisis through a different approach. In the case of the MBO, this approach involved historical reconciliation with the Serbs. While the leaders of the MBO structured this agreement as a peace and political initiative, its implementation was not possible due to the opposing state-legal concepts from the Bosniak (Muslim) side. The concept of a union of free states, central to the MBO's agreement, did not receive support from the Serbian side. In such a constellation of relationships, Yugoslavia could continue to function only as a federal state, as it best served Serbian state interests. The fundamental aim of this work is to shed light on the events preceding the agreement, what the agreement entailed, and why it ultimately failed. The introductory section of the paper analyzes Muslim (Bosniak)-Serbian historical reconciliation, which includes the period of Austro-Hungarian rule and the Kingdom of Yugoslavia when certain Muslim (Bosniak) politicians formed a specific type of alliance with the Serbs. The position of Muslims (Bosniaks) in the early 1990s significantly differed from that at the beginning of the 20th century. The paper dedicates a substantial portion of its pages to significant events in the Second Yugoslavia to provide a comprehensive synthesis. The 1974 Constitution, the Memorandum of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts (SANU), the rise of Milošević, the abolition of autonomy for provinces in Serbia, and the republic-level elections were all events that preceded the agreement. Special attention in the paper is given to the participants of the agreement as significant political protagonists of that period, as well as the political parties whose members were part of the agreement and the architects of the policies of that era. Adil beg Zulfikarpašić undeniably played a central role in the efforts to reach a historical agreement between Muslims (Bosniaks) and Serbs. After World War II, Zulfikarpašić went into exile, where he launched the Bosanski pogledi magazine in the early 1960s. During his time in exile, he operated from various political-ideological positions, later emerging as one of the ideologues of Bosniak identity. In 1963, Zulfikarpašić participated in the founding of the Democratic Alternative, a movement in which Bosniak, Croatian, Serbian, and Slovenian intellectuals advocated for the democratization of Yugoslavia and the concept of free states within Yugoslavia. The foundation of this movement was a departure from Yugoslavia, i.e., communism, and alignment with the Western bloc of countries that based their policies on the principles of capitalism and democracy. Zulfikarpašić remained unwaveringly convinced of the correctness of the political initiative for reconciliation with the Serbs, considering the agreement the best solution under the circumstances and the only alternative to the impending war. A. Zulfikarpašić, as the main architect of the agreement, left Bosnia and Herzegovina in September 1991, and shortly thereafter, his party colleague, academician Muhamed Filipović, terminated all processes related to the agreement.

Mearsheimer, John J. 2018. Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven and London: Yale University Press. xiv, 313 pp. https://doi.org/10.12987/9780300240535

The book comparatively analyzes the features of liberal hegemony, when the liberal international order strengthened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the United States and Western European countries took the position of hegemony in world politics. While the economic dimensions of the liberal world order may be acceptable to all, its political component, as an instrument of the democratic world, is trying to serve the purpose of consolidating the world. It is important that the discourse about the liberal world order takes place during times of conflict, crisis and war, influencing the transformation of the modern world order.
 The political elites of the liberal world order in the era of liberal hegemony must keep in mind that for the diverse authoritarian and democratic blocs of countries, it is necessary to protect the resilience of the international order and law. In accordance with the author’s concept of political liberalism, it is interpreted broadly and as a unity of the spiritual, social and political forms of its being. Therefore, its essence unfolds through a consistent analysis of the ideological, social and political space, which makes it possible to form an adequate idea of the role of liberal ideology and liberal international politics in the social and political process.

Unravelling the efficacy of green innovation and taxation in promoting environmental quality: A dual-model assessment of testing the LCC theory in emerging economies

The increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on the environment has led researchers to conduct a comprehensive analysis of its determinants and propose sustainable solutions to mitigate the negative effects. Given the situation, the load capacity factor (biocapacity/ecological footprint) is used in this study as a comprehensive indicator of environmental sustainability that takes into account the supply-side consequences of ecological concerns while evaluating the theoretical dynamics of the Load capacity curve (LCC) in emerging countries. In doing so, the study employed the novel Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR) to analyze the role of green innovation, green taxation, and economic growth under the LCC framework, from 2000 to 2018. The results affirm the presence of a U-shaped curve between environmental sustainability and income implying that growth may cause to harm the environment but after reaching a certain turning point it maintains the ecological quality. Also, green measures of taxation and innovation could curb carbon dioxide emissions at various quantiles for the selected bloc of countries. Noticeably, the LLC hypothesis is verified for both models establishing a positive association of determinants with load capacity factor. The results recommended policy implications for emerging countries seeking to promote sustainable economic growth while preserving the environment.

Quest for Peace in Afghanistan: Analysis of China’s Regional Policy after US Withdrawal

Peace and stability are critical for Afghanistan's and regional countries' security and socioeconomic interests. It is also necessary for landmark project of China, the Belt and Road Initiative, in the region. Therefore, China is consistently making concrete efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan. The withdrawal of United States without restoration of peace and stability has created a situation where there is likelihood of civil war in the country. An unstable Afghanistan would prove fatal for the interests and security of China as well as other neighbouring countries. On one hand, it has created security threats to Chinese interests and investment in Afghanistan and on the other hand militant organizations like Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Turkmenistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) regrouped their militants that posed direct threat to security and stability of China. The current study attempts to analyse the Chinese quest and pursuit for peace and stability in Afghanistan and whether China possible role along with the regional countries to establish a regional bloc of countries, like Pakistan, Russia Iran and Turkey could be workable for restoration of peace and stability in Afghanistan or not after the US and NATO forces withdrawal

The Sino-Soviet Alliance: An International History by Austin Jersild

<i>The Sino-Soviet Alliance: An International History</i> by Austin Jersild

The influence of sanctions on the transformation of trade cooperation of countries within the world economy

The article analyzes the positions of the world's leading economies in global value chains since the 60s of the XX century. The features of the formation of modern key centers of production chains, including China, the USA and Germany, are reflected. The analysis of the share of participation of ten leading economies of the world and Russia in global value chains, including in such sectors of the economy as agro-industrial, industrial, construction, services and mining, was carried out. It was revealed that in all the sectors of the economy considered, China managed to reach the first positions, with the exception of the mining sector, where the leading positions remain for the United States, followed by Russia. It is established that the decline in the share of developed economies in global value chains has led to the introduction of sanctions against those countries whose economic opportunities and prospects have served as a threat to the sustainable development of the former, primarily against China and Russia. The analysis of the transformation of Russia's trade relations with key partners has been carried out since 2013, when the dependence of the Russian economy on imports was maximum and at the same time the Western bloc of countries imposed the first sanctions against our country. Possible prospects for further development of both the Russian economy and other countries playing a key role in the future formation of the entire world economy are presented.

Designing wartime economic controls: Productivity and firm dynamics in the Japanese cotton spinning industry, 1937–9

AbstractIn 1937, the Japanese government accelerated the expansion of its military expenditure and began to impose controls on the economy to maintain the balance of international payments. The controls were developed through trial and error. The cotton spinning industry was one of the industries most deeply affected by these controls. Initially, the government simply reduced the allocation of foreign exchange for raw cotton imports. However, because this measure prevented the export of cotton products, especially to countries outside the yen bloc, a new scheme of control, the ‘export–import link system’, was adopted from the second half of 1938. This scheme was intentionally designed to give firms incentives to export to non‐yen bloc countries and to incorporate elements of market mechanisms into the system of economic controls. Analysing firm‐level data, we find that under the link system, firms with higher labour productivity (LP) tended to grow faster, as occurs under a market economy. This relationship was not observed during the early stage of the controls. This difference is reflected in the pattern of change in aggregate LP. Under the export–import link system, the positive reallocation effect was substantial, similar to a market economy, whereas it was almost zero under the early controls. These findings indicate that the design of controls matters for the performance of controlled economies.

Redistribution of cryptocurrency markets: the shift of activity to the east

At the end of 2022, the total capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell by more than three times compared to the data of 2021. This collapse was facilitated both by a crisis of confidence due to the collapse of the largest American exchange FTX, and the intensified activity of American regulators aimed at restoring order in the cryptocurrency markets. The closure of some crypto exchanges in the US led to a general destabilization of the market and a massive withdrawal of funds. At the beginning of 2023, a recovery trend followed. However, there is every reason to believe that this dynamics did not occur due to the recovery of the American cryptocurrency market, but due to the flow of funds to Asian and Middle Eastern crypto exchanges. However, Eastern markets are also not homogeneous in their attitude to the phenomenon under consideration. In a number of countries, all transactions with cryptocurrencies are strictly prohibited; in others, their use is possible either for a limited type of transactions (Iran), or subject to certain conditions (“know your customer”) - Hong Kong. In mainland China, cryptocurrency exchanges are closed, but digital yuan technologies are being actively developed. Another bloc of countries (UAE, India) is trying to extract the maximum benefit from the emerging market in the form of taxes and attracting investment. This different attitude allows cryptocurrencies to “settle” in the most friendly locations. However, the main trend in the world of cryptocurrencies is the tightening of state regulation and control.

Cuban Medical Internationalism: A Paradigm for South–South Cooperation

In 2023, Cuba assumed the presidency of the Group of 77 + China, the world’s largest and most diverse multilateral bloc of countries. The election of Cuba to this role testifies to the island’s prestige among the Global South, recognition of its material contribution to developing countries, and promotion of South–South cooperation, particularly in the healthcare sector. Cuban medical internationalism tends to be discussed in the rather lonely and nostalgic category of “international solidarity”. While there is a rationale for underscoring its uniqueness in motivation, quantity and quality, doing so also facilitates the censoring or sidelining of this extraordinary assistance in international analysis. In the context of Cuba’s presidency of the Group of 77 + China, this article frames Cuban medical internationalism in relation to the United Nations principles for South–South cooperation, and the commitment to healthcare as a human right. It also draws on calculations of the monetary value of Cuba’s overseas development aid to provide a comparative assessment of the island’s contribution to the global south. After noting the key steps and achievements in the development of Cuba’s own public healthcare system, the article explores the origins of and motivations for Cuban medical internationalism, providing examples of the four forms of assistance which emerged in response to global circumstances, and which endure today. The article then demonstrates how Cuban international assistance is consistent with the UN’s Plan of Action to promote cooperation between developing nations. Finally, it discusses the economics of Cuban medical internationalism, and the campaign to discredit and sabotage Cuban medical exports by opponents of Cuban socialism.

УЧАСТЬ КНР У РОЗВИТКУ НАФТОГАЗОВОЇ ГАЛУЗІ КАЗАХСТАНУ, ТУРКМЕНІСТАНУ ТА ІНШИХ КРАЇН ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЇ АЗІЇ 1990 – 2016 РР.: ЗОВНІШНЬОПОЛІТИЧНІ ТА ЕКОНОМІЧНІ ФАКТОРИ

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the military- political and economic situation in the world had changed radically. The Berlin Wall fell ,The Warsaw Treaty Organization (WTO) stopped its existence, the socialist bloc of countries in Europe and the USSR collapsed. The world was no more bipolar. The PRC, led by the CCP, despite the ruling Communist Party ideology, strived to take advantage of these changes. China aimed to open for itself foreign markets, including energy resources. PRC’s rejection from complete isolationism, the initial cessation of confrontation with the United States and countries of the West, and then cessation of the struggle with the USSR and its allies for leadership in building a world socialist system, allowed Chinese government not only to save huge resources, including energy, which went to maintenance of a huge army and ambitious military-political projects, by directing them in a peaceful direction, but also by starting the introduction of market reforms, what changed China's image in the world from a negative to a positive one. Sinc the formation on the territory of the former Soviet Central Asia of the independent states of Central Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan – hydrocarbon resources of the region acquired key importance in the foreign policy of the new countries. China formed the priorities of its foreign energy policy in relation to Central Asia gradually. Energy expansion of Beijing was preceded by an active trade and economic policy, the results of which created preconditions for the foreign policy refocusing of the countries of the region. Pipelines became an important element of energy policy, proposed and implemented by Beijing for the supply of hydrocarbon resources in Chinese direction. Beijing achieves access to new oil and gas deposits, expecting due to their development, to realize promising plans to increase the exports volume of hydrocarbon raw materials from Central Asia countries.

Geopolitics and the U.S. Dollar's Future as a Reserve Currency

I survey the role of geopolitics and sanctions risk in shaping the U.S. dollar's status as the primary currency used for international reserves. Without changes in the economic incentives for holding FX reserves in U.S. dollar assets, an increased threat of sanctions is unlikely to drastically reduce the dollar share of FX reserves. Currently, around three-quarters of foreign government holdings of safe U.S. assets are by countries with some military tie to the U.S. Even a reduced reliance on the U.S. dollar for trade invoicing and debt denomination by a large bloc of countries less geopolitically aligned with the U.S. would be unlikely to end U.S. dollar dominance.

Determinants of Life Insurance Demand: Empirical Evidence from BRICS Countries

The life insurance industry has experienced phenomenal growth over the years. The broad aim of this study was to establish the variables that influence the demand for life insurance in the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Although many studies have investigated the determinants of life insurance demand, little research has considered the supply-side factors such as financial regulation. Therefore, this study also contemplated the effect of the financial regulation variable on life insurance demand. The inquiry employed a panel of the BRICS bloc of countries as a unit of analysis for 1999–2020 and applied panel data econometric techniques. The study found that the life insurance demand variable (proxied by life insurance density and alternatively by life insurance penetration) was negatively affected by income, unemployment, interest rates and inflation variables. Furthermore, the study documented a positive relationship between life insurance demand and the economic growth and financial freedom variables. This study implies that regulatory authorities should deregulate the life insurance sector to foster financial freedom.

Ukraine: The Shock of Recognition

Like the international struggle against Hitler-led fascism in the last century, the broad and cohesive mobilisation against Vladimir Putin’s Russia following his brutal invasion of Ukraine is based not only on realpolitik but also on a visceral recognition of a grave threat to the values and institutions of Western civilisation. While NATO enlargement inevitably discomfited Russian leaders, it was largely driven by the demands of former Soviet republics or bloc countries that sensibly and presciently feared Russian revanchism. In any case, Putin’s primary concern about Ukraine appears to have been not Kyiv’s NATO aspirations so much as its increasing Western orientation and democratic development. War has come to Europe mainly because Putin decided that an independent Ukraine was intolerable. A stable and secure neutrality along Finnish or Austrian lines might be viable only because Ukraine has shown its determination and capability to defend itself.

Cold War Cooperation: The KGB and Poland’s Security Service in Operation Kaskada and Operation Kama

The increasing tension in international politics during the Cold War increased the importance of intelligence services throughout the world. Security services on both sides of the Iron Curtain were an important tool for gathering information on the enemy and for destroying political opponents. Moscow and its allies readily used their secret services for their purposes, both international and domestic. During the Cold War, the State Committee for Security (KGB) tightened its links to intelligence and counterintelligence services of the Soviet Bloc (SB) countries. One example of such cooperation is the joint operation of the KGB and the SB—Security Service of the Polish People’s Republic—in the 1970s and 1980s, called Operation Kaskada, and its subset, Operation Kama. The KGB and SB actions focused on compromising expat activists of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists and on finding their allies in the USSR and Poland. The strategies used by both intelligence services led to closing a courier route from the West into the USSR and to seizing a contingent of documents that Moscow then used expertly for its propaganda and political ends. Given its efficacy, the operative model used by the Soviet intelligence agents is in all probability still used by Russian intelligence and counterintelligence services.

Megatrends and Interdependence of the Loan Aid-Capital Investment Links Across Developing Regional Country Blocs Theory and Evidence

Megatrends and Interdependence of the Loan Aid-Capital Investment Links Across Developing Regional Country Blocs Theory and Evidence