Blinded Sample Size Re-estimation Procedures Research Articles

Follow up after sample size re-estimation in a breast cancer randomized trial for disease-free survival

BackgroundWhile the clinical trials and statistical methodology literature on sample size re-estimation (SSRE) is robust, evaluation of SSRE procedures following the completion of a clinical trial has been sparsely reported. In blinded sample size re-estimation, only nuisance parameters are re-estimated, and the blinding of the current trial treatment effect is preserved. Blinded re-estimation procedures are well-accepted by regulatory agencies and funders. We review our experience of sample size re-estimation in a large international, National Institutes of Health funded clinical trial for adjuvant breast cancer treatment, and evaluate our blinded sample size re-estimation procedure for this time-to-event trial. We evaluated the SSRE procedure by examining assumptions made during the re-estimation process, estimates resulting from re-estimation, and the impact on final trial results with and without the addition of participants, following sample size re-estimation.MethodsWe compared the control group failure probabilities estimated at the time of SSRE to estimates used in the original planning, to the final un-blinded control group failure probability estimates for those included in the SSRE procedure (SSRE cohort), and to the final total control group failure probability estimates. The impact of re-estimation on the final comparison between randomized treatment groups is evaluated for those in the originally planned cohort (n = 340) and for the combination of those recruited in the originally planned cohort and those added after re-estimation (n = 509).ResultsVery little difference is observed between the originally planned cohort and all randomized patients in the control group failure probabilities over time or in the overall hazard ratio estimating treatment effect (originally planned cohort HR 1.25 (0.86, 1.79); all randomized cohort HR 1.24 95% CI (0.91, 1.68)). At the time of blinded SSRE, the estimated control group failure probabilities at 3 years (0.24) and 5 years (0.40) were similar to those for the SSRE cohort once un-blinded (3 years, 0.22 (0.16, 0.30); 5 years, 0.33 (0.26, 0.41)).ConclusionsWe found that our re-estimation procedure performed reasonably well in estimating the control group failure probabilities at the time of re-estimation. Particularly for time-to-event outcomes, pre-planned blinded SSRE procedures may be the best option to aid in maintaining power.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00201851. Registered on 9 September 2005. Retrospectively registered.

Blinded sample size reestimation in event-driven clinical trials: Methods and an application in multiple sclerosis.

Motivated by a recently completed trial in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, we developed blinded sample size reestimation procedures for clinical trials with time‐to‐event endpoint and assessed their properties in simulation studies. Assuming independent right‐censoring and proportional hazards for the two treatment groups, we considered event‐driven designs with fixed number of events, which guarantees the power to be at a desired level under a certain alternative. We develop reestimation procedures based on parametric models and show that these maintain the expected duration of the trial at a target length in flexible follow‐up designs across a range of nuisance parameter values by adjusting the number of patients recruited into the trial based on blinded nuisance parameter estimates. Furthermore, we provide convincing evidence from a simulation study that such procedures proposed do not inflate the type I error rate in any practically relevant way, thereby satisfying the standards set by relevant international guidelines. Inspired by practical application of these procedures, we outline a number of extensions including methods for extrapolating the observed survival curve beyond the interim time point, application of reestimation procedures to interval censored data, and situations in which a confirmation of event is required leading to a certain lag time.

Sample size re-estimation for clinical trials with longitudinal negative binomial counts including time trends.

In some diseases, such as multiple sclerosis, lesion counts obtained from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are used as markers of disease progression. This leads to longitudinal, and typically overdispersed, count data outcomes in clinical trials. Models for such data invariably include a number of nuisance parameters, which can be difficult to specify at the planning stage, leading to considerable uncertainty in sample size specification. Consequently, blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are used, allowing for an adjustment of the sample size within an ongoing trial by estimating relevant nuisance parameters at an interim point, without compromising trial integrity. To date, the methods available for re-estimation have required an assumption that the mean count is time-constant within patients. We propose a new modeling approach that maintains the advantages of established procedures but allows for general underlying and treatment-specific time trends in the mean response. A simulation study is conducted to assess the effectiveness of blinded sample size re-estimation methods over fixed designs. Sample sizes attained through blinded sample size re-estimation procedures are shown to maintain the desired study power without inflating the Type I error rate and the procedure is demonstrated on MRI data from a recent study in multiple sclerosis.

Blinded continuous monitoring in clinical trials with recurrent event endpoints.

In studies with recurrent event endpoints, misspecified assumptions of event rates or dispersion can lead to underpowered trials or overexposure of patients. Specification of overdispersion is often a particular problem as it is usually not reported in clinical trial publications. Changing event rates over the years have been described for some diseases, adding to the uncertainty in planning. To mitigate the risks of inadequate sample sizes, internal pilot study designs have been proposed with a preference for blinded sample size reestimation procedures, as they generally do not affect the type I error rate and maintain trial integrity. Blinded sample size reestimation procedures are available for trials with recurrent events as endpoints. However, the variance in the reestimated sample size can be considerable in particular with early sample size reviews. Motivated by a randomized controlled trial in paediatric multiple sclerosis, a rare neurological condition in children, we apply the concept of blinded continuous monitoring of information, which is known to reduce the variance in the resulting sample size. Assuming negative binomial distributions for the counts of recurrent relapses, we derive information criteria and propose blinded continuous monitoring procedures. The operating characteristics of these are assessed in Monte Carlo trial simulations demonstrating favourable properties with regard to type I error rate, power, and stopping time, ie, sample size.

Blinded sample size re-estimation in three-arm trials with 'gold standard' design.

In this article, we study blinded sample size re-estimation in the 'gold standard' design with internal pilot study for normally distributed outcomes. The 'gold standard' design is a three-arm clinical trial design that includes an active and a placebo control in addition to an experimental treatment. We focus on the absolute margin approach to hypothesis testing in three-arm trials at which the non-inferiority of the experimental treatment and the assay sensitivity are assessed by pairwise comparisons. We compare several blinded sample size re-estimation procedures in a simulation study assessing operating characteristics including power and type I error. We find that sample size re-estimation based on the popular one-sample variance estimator results in overpowered trials. Moreover, sample size re-estimation based on unbiased variance estimators such as the Xing-Ganju variance estimator results in underpowered trials, as it is expected because an overestimation of the variance and thus the sample size is in general required for the re-estimation procedure to eventually meet the target power. To overcome this problem, we propose an inflation factor for the sample size re-estimation with the Xing-Ganju variance estimator and show that this approach results in adequately powered trials. Because of favorable features of the Xing-Ganju variance estimator such as unbiasedness and a distribution independent of the group means, the inflation factor does not depend on the nuisance parameter and, therefore, can be calculated prior to a trial. Moreover, we prove that the sample size re-estimation based on the Xing-Ganju variance estimator does not bias the effect estimate. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Blinded and unblinded internal pilot study designs for clinical trials with count data

Internal pilot studies are a popular design feature to address uncertainties in the sample size calculations caused by vague information on nuisance parameters. Despite their popularity, only very recently blinded sample size reestimation procedures for trials with count data were proposed and their properties systematically investigated. Although blinded procedures are favored by regulatory authorities, practical application is somewhat limited by fears that blinded procedures are prone to bias if the treatment effect was misspecified in the planning. Here, we compare unblinded and blinded procedures with respect to bias, error rates, and sample size distribution. We find that both procedures maintain the desired power and that the unblinded procedure is slightly liberal whereas the actual significance level of the blinded procedure is close to the nominal level. Furthermore, we show that in situations where uncertainty about the assumed treatment effect exists, the blinded estimator of the control event rate is biased in contrast to the unblinded estimator, which results in differences in mean sample sizes in favor of the unblinded procedure. However, these differences are rather small compared to the deviations of the mean sample sizes from the sample size required to detect the true, but unknown effect. We demonstrate that the variation of the sample size resulting from the blinded procedure is in many practically relevant situations considerably smaller than the one of the unblinded procedures. The methods are extended to overdispersed counts using a quasi-likelihood approach and are illustrated by trials in relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Blinded sample size re‐estimation in superiority and noninferiority trials: bias versus variance in variance estimation

The internal pilot study design allows for modifying the sample size during an ongoing study based on a blinded estimate of the variance thus maintaining the trial integrity. Various blinded sample size re-estimation procedures have been proposed in the literature. We compare the blinded sample size re-estimation procedures based on the one-sample variance of the pooled data with a blinded procedure using the randomization block information with respect to bias and variance of the variance estimators, and the distribution of the resulting sample sizes, power, and actual type I error rate. For reference, sample size re-estimation based on the unblinded variance is also included in the comparison. It is shown that using an unbiased variance estimator (such as the one using the randomization block information) for sample size re-estimation does not guarantee that the desired power is achieved. Moreover, in situations that are common in clinical trials, the variance estimator that employs the randomization block length shows a higher variability than the simple one-sample estimator and in turn the sample size resulting from the related re-estimation procedure. This higher variability can lead to a lower power as was demonstrated in the setting of noninferiority trials. In summary, the one-sample estimator obtained from the pooled data is extremely simple to apply, shows good performance, and is therefore recommended for application.