Illegal Trade Research Articles

Anatomy of the shadow economy: Structure, dynamics and impact on macroeconomic stability in times of crises

Aim. To test hypotheses about the counter-cyclical nature of the shadow economy and its role as a “shock absorber of social costs”.Objectives. To study the dynamics and structure of the shadow economy and employment during the crises of 2008–2009, 2014–2016 and 2020–2022; to analyze the ability of the shadow economy to absorb unemployment and smooth the fall of the economy; to identify the components of the dynamics of the shadow economy during the crises.Methods. The article is based on the analysis of unobserved economy estimates, microdata of labor force surveys of Rosstat and the Russian Monitoring of Economic Situation and Health of the National Research University Higher School of Economics. The dynamics of shadow gross domestic product (GDP), employment without registration, tax evasion, and unregistered entrepreneurial activity is analyzed. Balance models of workers’ transitions between formal and shadow employment were developed.Results. The data showed that the shadow economy is highly flexible and can temporarily absorb part of the unemployed and gross output in crises. However, its impact on macroeconomic stability is limited. Shadow employment serves as a factor of instability for shadow workers. Three groups of actors that determine the dynamics of the shadow economy are identified: entrenched, outsiders and reactive. The bulk of the shadow economy is concentrated in small and medium-sized businesses.Conclusions. The shadow economy can both contribute to the maintenance of economic activity, employment, and act as a driver of crises. In the author’s opinion, it is necessary to improve state regulation to facilitate legalization of business and employment of the “rooted” segment of the shadow economy.

T121 - Black Market Drug Purchases as Reported to Real-Time Monitoring Website, StreetRx

T121 - Black Market Drug Purchases as Reported to Real-Time Monitoring Website, StreetRx

Analisis Persepsi Karyawan Pada Penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 7 Tahun 2021 Tentang Harmoni Sasi Peraturan Perpajakan (Studi Persepsi Karyawan WNJ.ID tentang Penggunaan Nomor Induk Kependudukan (NIK) Sebagai Nomor Pokok Wajib Pajak (NPWP))

Tax, which is defined as a contribution to the state that can be enforced through law, has two functions, namely the budgetary function and the regular function. As a budgetary function, taxes act as a source of state revenue, which can then be used to finance state activities. Therefore, the size of the tax that can be collected has very important implications for the number and quality of activities that can be carried out by the state. The tax ratio in Indonesia is low because Indonesian citizens are less aware of registering with the Tax Service Office (KPP) and obtaining a Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP), so that there are many economic activities that should be tax objects but are difficult or cannot be detected by the tax authorities. The growing shadow economy activities can cause state losses, because shadow economy actors are generally separated from the tax authorities, thus eliminating the obligation to pay taxes. The taxation system in Indonesia which is self-assessment in nature encourages taxpayers to have self-awareness to report and pay their tax obligations in their role and support state revenues in order to achieve the common welfare of the people. To report and pay tax obligations, taxpayers must have a Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP) as tax identity. Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP) is a number given to taxpayers as a means in tax administration which is used as personal identification or Taxpayer identity in carrying out their tax rights and obligations, Taxpayer Identification Number (NPWP) is a means in tax administration which used as personal identification or taxpayer identity, each taxpayer is only given one taxpayer identification number. Taxpayer identification numbers are also used to maintain order in tax payments and in supervising tax administration, so that taxpayers' Taxpayer Identification Numbers (NPWP) obtain several other direct benefits, such as paying taxes in advance (installments\tax credits) on external taxes. paid when the taxpayer goes abroad, as a requirement when processing a trading business permit (SIUP), and as one of the conditions for creating a checking account at banks, taxpayers who do not register to obtain a taxpayer identification number are subject to witnesses in accordance with the provisions of tax laws and regulations. The survey results show that respondents have a positive perception regarding the benefits of the policy of integrating Population Identification Numbers (NIK) into Taxpayer Identification Numbers (NPWP) in increasing efficiency and ease in processing tax documents, verifying identity, the number of documents that need to be prepared, and access to services. online tax.

Crime control of illegal wildlife trade in Poland

Since Poland joined the European Union, it has become, after the US, the second-largest market for live animal specimens protected by the provisions of the Washington Convention. In addition, it is a transit country for a significant number of specimens (live plants or animals, or products derived from them) destined for buyers in Western Europe, due to Poland's eastern border which is one of the longest EU borders and at the same time the first in the way of illegal wildlife trade [Drzazga, 2020]. The effectiveness of international efforts to counter this phenomenon and its global consequences strongly depends on the actions taken by individual countries that are exporters or importers of extinct and endangered species. That is why it is so important to raise the quality of social control of this phenomenon also in Poland. The main purpose of the article is to present the results of qualitative research on social control of illegal wildlife trade in Poland. Before discussing them, the necessary terminological clarifications will be introduced and the reasons for addressing the topic will be presented.

User Engagement Triggers in Social Media Discourse on Biodiversity Conservation

Studies in digital conservation have increasingly used social media in recent years as a source of data to understand the interactions between humans and nature, model and monitor biodiversity, and analyse online discourse about the conservation of species. Current approaches to digital conservation are for the most part purely frequentist, i.e. focused on easily trackable and quantifiable features, or purely qualitative, which allows a deeper level of interpretation, but is less scalable. Our approach aims to evaluate the applicability of recent advances in deep learning in combination with semi-automatic analysis. We present a multimodal neural learning framework that experiments with different combinations of linguistic and visual features and metadata of tweets to predict user engagement from a function of likes and retweets . Experimental results show that text is the single most effective modality for prediction when a large amount of training data is available. For smaller datasets, drawing information from multiple modalities can boost performance. Notably, we find a negative effect of large pre-trained language models when dealing with substantially unbalanced datasets. A qualitative analysis into the triggers of user engagement with tweets reveals that it emerges from a combination of online discourse topic and sentiment, and is often amplified by user activity, e.g. when content originates from an influencer account. We find clear evidence of existing sub-communities around specific topics, including animal photography and sightings , illegal wildlife trade and trophy hunting , deforestation and destruction of nature and climate change and action in a broader sense.

The Cactus Hunters: Desire and Extinction in the Illicit Succulent Trade

Plant collectors and enthusiasts are attracted to cacti and succulents in part because of their showy flowers in comparison to body size for many species. For example, the cactus genus Mammillaria, among others, is often found in cactus collections. Nevertheless, this human attraction for the collection and growing of cacti has led to an extensive illegal trade of cacti well documented in this book. Cacti over collecting coupled with the fact that 31%, or about1500 cacti species, are considered threatened, results in harvesting pressure that creates environmental concerns for the preservation of these plants. Margulies’s book raises awareness to the problem of cactus collection, trading, and selling both legally and illegally.

Testing an intervention codesigned with stakeholders for altering wildlife consumption: Health messaging matters

AbstractConsumer behavior change is a key priority to address the illegal wildlife trade, but evaluation of these interventions is lacking. We used surveys and randomized controlled trials to assess the effectiveness of three types of messages, which were codesigned with key stakeholders, with 2496 potential consumers and nontarget consumers in China. We found a 23% decrease in intention among potential consumers to use wild animal medicinal products by health‐related messages, and a 14% decrease by legality‐related messages, compared with the control group, though the effect size was small. Furthermore, we revealed that the effect of health‐related messages occurred indirectly by increasing health risk perceptions associated with improper utilization of wild animals. Yet, we did not find a clear effect pathway of the legality‐related messages. Regarding the nontarget consumers, information of whistleblowing platforms and incentives improved willingness to report illegal wildlife use directly, as well as indirectly through adding messages to increase perceived legality risk of using wild products and improve self‐efficacy in identifying legal products. Our findings can inform future larger scale efforts to influence wildlife consumption.

The Invisible Impact of Conflict: A Study of Terrorism, Regime Type, and the Shadow Economy

Does terrorism contribute to the growth of the shadow economy? While extensive literature has delved into the causes and consequences of terrorism, little has been studied on its impact on the shadow economy. Employing data on terrorism and the shadow economies of 116 countries from 1990 to 2017, we demonstrate that terrorism results in an increase in the size of the shadow economy and that the effect is larger in autocracies. We argue that the economic and social impacts of terrorism create environments that reinforce both exit and exclusion factors through the erosion of institutional trust and social capital, ultimately incentivizing or compelling actors to seek alternative methods of economic activities. Furthermore, a lack of free and horizontal information-sharing venues to address public fear and repressive counterterrorism measures in autocracies further hamper the economic pursuits of individuals, businesses, and foreign investors, facilitating their engagement in informal economic activities.

“You Could Try This Compound, but it Might Send You nuts”: How Steroid Suppliers Perceive the Underground Market and Their ‘Hybrid’ Role within It

ABSTRACT Introduction The illicit manufacture and use of image and performance enhancing drugs (IPEDs) have increased. The underground market continues to meet consumer demands amidst evolving cultural narratives around most alluring IPEDs. This qualitative study aimed to provide insights into how IPED suppliers perceive demands within the current market and their roles within it. Methods We interviewed four IPED suppliers in Australia regarding distribution challenges and market changes. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed, with immediate reflective notes taken after each interview. Inductive line-by-line analysis facilitated identification and development of themes. Results Cultural narratives were perceived to influence the demand for several drugs (e.g. trenbolone, dihydroboldenone, fluoxymesterone) due to their perceived desirability and elevated status compared to other compounds. Consumers, who appeared to demonstrate knowledge gaps, were sometimes guided in their consumption practices by IPED suppliers, who drifted into a “hybrid” role of coach-supplier. Discussion IPED suppliers highlighted a perceived demand for specific AAS, driven by cultural narratives. Consequently, IPED suppliers assumed a hybrid role whereby they provide advice to the people who purchase IPEDs at point-of-sale. Urgent action is needed to address cultural narratives and provide education and harm reduction to support people who use IPEDs.

A Fair Investment Environment: The Impact of the Shadow Economy, the Harshness of the Courts Against Corrupt Officials, Tax Pressure and Restrictions on Business

Creating a fair investment environment is crucial for economic growth and attracting domestic and foreign investors. The purpose of this study is to find out how the shadow economy, harshness of courts against corrupt officials, tax pressure, and restrictions on business affect the fair investment environment. Therefore, two economic-mathematical models are built using multiple least squares regression analysis, in which the outcome variables are: in model 1 ‒ control over corruption, which is a component of the Global Governance Index; in model 2 ‒ the European Business Association’s Investment Attractiveness Index. The composition of the factor attributes in both models is the same: Corruption Perceptions Index by Transparency International; level of shadow economy according to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine; the number of criminal cases in courts under the article “Acceptance of an offer, promise or receipt of an undue benefit by an official” using open data from the Unified State Register of Court Decisions; total tax and fee rate, which reflects taxes and mandatory payments as a percentage of commercial profit, determined by the World Bank Group methodology; assessment of “Starting Business” by Doing Business, according to the methodology of the World Bank Group. The modeling is based on the example of Ukraine for 2012‒2022. Calculations based on Model 1 show that restrictions on business have the greatest impact on the corruption control indicator (a 10% reduction in restrictions leads to a 3-point reduction in the need to control corruption), the shadow economy and tax pressure have an average impact (a one-point increase in them will increase the level of corruption by 0.4 points). The harshness of the courts against corrupt officials has the least impact (most corruption cases in Ukraine do not reach the courts). Calculations based on Model 2 show that the complexity of starting a business exerts the greatest impact on investment attractiveness (if it decreases by 15%, investment attractiveness will increase by almost 1 unit). The average impact is exerted by the increase in the shadow economy (a 10% increase in the shadow economy leads to a rise in investment attractiveness by 0.4 units). The insignificant impact is exerted by the tax burden and judicial punishment of corrupt officials.

Habitat Characteristics of the Endangered Himalayan Red Panda in Panchthar–Ilam–Taplejung Corridor, Eastern Nepal

The Panchthar–Ilam–Taplejung Corridor in Eastern Nepal, managed through community forestry, is a crucial habitat for the Himalayan red panda, an endangered carnivore threatened by forest degradation and illegal trade. We deployed the altitude line intercept and ten-tree plotless methods to evaluate the distribution of Himalayan red pandas and the environmental factors affecting them within four community forests, namely Singhadevi, Chitre-Hile, Chhipchhipe, and Kalikhop-Dadehli, of the corridor. We established a total of 23 transects and 92 plots, identifying 41 plots with evidence of the Himalayan red panda’s presence. The sign occurrence revealed a clumped distribution of the species across all four community forests. The Himalayan red panda signs were observed between 2200 m and 2700 m above sea level (asl) and the majority of them were from habitats with a moderate slope within elevations of 2400 m to 2500 m asl. The primary sites for the defecation were large horizontal tree branches (78.12%), followed by forest ground (15.62%) and rocks (6.25%). The dominant tree species in their habitats included Lithocarpus pachyphylla (Importance value index, IVI = 45.05), Symplocus theifolia (IVI = 37.19), Symplocos pyrifolia (IVI = 20.99), Quercus lamellosa (IVI = 19.25), and Magnolia campbellii (IVI = 17.25). Among the thirteen environmental variables examined, proximity to water, distance to road, bamboo density, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were identified as the major factors influencing the Himalayan red panda’s distribution. This research provides crucial insights to develop site-specific habitat management plans for community forestry.

SIGNIFICANCE deep learning based platform to fight illicit trafficking of Cultural Heritage goods

The illicit traffic of cultural goods remains a persistent global challenge, despite the proliferation of comprehensive legislative frameworks developed to address and prevent cultural property crimes. Online platforms, especially social media and e-commerce, have facilitated illegal trade and pose significant challenges for law enforcement agencies. To address this issue, the European project SIGNIFICANCE was born, with the aim of combating illicit traffic of Cultural Heritage (CH) goods. This paper presents the outcomes of the project, introducing a user-friendly platform that employs Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Deep learning (DL) to prevent and combat illicit activities. The platform enables authorities to identify, track, and block illegal activities in the online domain, thereby aiding successful prosecutions of criminal networks. Moreover, it incorporates an ontology-based approach, providing comprehensive information on the cultural significance, provenance, and legal status of identified artefacts. This enables users to access valuable contextual information during the scraping and classification phases, facilitating informed decision-making and targeted actions. To accomplish these objectives, computationally intensive tasks are executed on the HPC CyClone infrastructure, optimizing computing resources, time, and cost efficiency. Notably, the infrastructure supports algorithm modelling and training, as well as web, dark web and social media scraping and data classification. Preliminary results indicate a 10–15% increase in the identification of illicit artifacts, demonstrating the platform’s effectiveness in enhancing law enforcement capabilities.

Dynamic impact of shadow economy and corruption on environmental sustainability: What role renewable energy consumption play in case of South Asian Economies

The South Asian region has a wide range of problems that significantly influence its path towards environmental sustainability. The region's rapid population expansion, rising urbanization rates, rising industry, and increasing resource demands primarily determine these challenges. The quest for environmental sustainability in this setting is complex and multidimensional, made more difficult by the shadow economy, corruption, and the need to improve renewable energy alternatives. Therefore, the current study examines the multifaceted and interrelated dynamics of the shadow economy, corruption, economic inequality, and environmental sustainability in South Asian nations from 2004 to 2018. We have used sophisticated methodological strategies to tackle cross-section dependence, non-stationarity, and heterogeneity issues by employing a pooled mean group (PMG). However, we use panel FMOLS and DOLS techniques for robustness checks. The findings of the PMG analysis show that the shadow economy, corruption, and industrialization significantly negatively impact environmental sustainability. On the other hand, renewable energy consumption and urbanization are positive and substantial elements that lead to improved environmental sustainability. The robust procedures applied to check the consistency of the estimators also confirmed the long-run relationship among variables. Research findings suggest that reinforcing legal frameworks for environmental rules is crucial for adherence. Incentives such as legal protection and financial rewards can encourage environmental responsibility among businesses, reducing shadow economy operations and risks. Promoting renewable energy resources and urbanization helps to support a sustainable green economy.

Crimes associated with geological materials: mining, minerals, metals and fossils

Civilization has always relied on geological materials and it would not exist as we know it without the use of minerals. For the foreseeable future, minerals will remain fundamentally important commodities. As technology changes, so does the demand for different mineral commodities. For example, as we enter the era of the battery revolution, expedited by vehicle electrification and a reduction in the burning of traditional fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), demand for minerals used in battery technologies is predicted to increase significantly. In 2022 alone, the global mining industry had a value of over 2000 billion US dollars. Where such huge amounts of money are involved, it is unsurprising that criminal activity follows. Criminal activity in the mining, minerals and metals industries includes illegal mining and smuggling, theft (including adulteration and substitution), illegal trade in conflict minerals, fakes, fraud and environmental crime (e.g. pollution, contamination and degradation of the land, air and water). In this article, we provide an overview of the types of criminal activities associated with geological materials and the potential role of forensic geologists in mitigating the associated risks.

Current Perspectives in the Forensic Analysis of Timbers using Vibrational Spectroscopy: A Review

Wildlife crime has increased significantly with respect to timbers such as illegal timber trading, logging, harvesting, and counterfeiting. It has tremendously drained the economy of different countries since timber trafficking at the global level has an average annual net worth of US$ 50-150 billion. Moreover, timbers can act as important forensic evidence as they can be found at the crime scenes revealing the relationships between the crime scene and corpus delicti. Since ancient times, various traditional techniques have been used for timber identification such as anatomical investigation by visual method at the macroscopic and microscopic levels. However, morphological and anatomical techniques have some advantages, such as cost effectiveness, and limitations as they require experienced personnel. Vibrational spectroscopic tools such as infrared and Raman spectroscopy help in discriminating various species of timber as different timber species have unique phytochemicals. By examining the concentrations of cellulose, lignin, and hemicelluloses, the chemical composition can also be estimated. Herein, this review is carried out using vibrational spectroscopic methods for timber identification to combat criminal activities related to timbers for the dissemination of justice. Recent advancements and prospects are also emphasized in this review paper.

ГОСУДАРСТВЕННАЯ ПОДДЕРЖКА МАЛОГО БИЗНЕСА КАК ФАКТОР ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО БЛАГОПОЛУЧИЯ КЫРГЫЗСТАНА

This article investigates the role of small businesses in Kyrgyzstan's market economy and highlights their significance for employment, social stability, and economic well-being. The study draws examples from developed economies like Japan and the US, where small enterprises contribute significantly to the economy and provide employment for the majority of the population. The article argues for state support in the form of tax incentives, protection from corruption and the shadow economy, following Adam Smith's principles. It also emphasizes the need to create favorable conditions for young entrepreneurs to prevent unjustified inspections and other detrimental actions. The presence and development of this sector is crucial for Kyrgyzstan's economic, social, and political stability and prosperity.

WILDLIFE CONSERVATION: AN ANALYSIS OF MALAYSIA’S LEGAL FRAMEWORK FOR COMBATING ILLEGAL WILDLIFE TRADE AND ENFORCING CITES COMPLIANCE TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

Wildlife conservation represents a significant global challenge, particularly in nations abundant with biodiversity like Malaysia, where illegal wildlife trafficking jeopardises ecosystems and threatens endangered species. This paper analyses Malaysia's legal framework concerning wildlife conservation and its harmonisation with international agreements, notably the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Through an extensive examination of statutes and policies, this study elucidates Malaysia's endeavours to combat illegal wildlife trade and uphold adherence to CITES regulations. A central aspect of this analysis involves exploring Malaysia's strategy in reconciling conservation priorities with socio-economic considerations amidst the complexities of sustainable development. By critically assessing Malaysia's conservation landscape, this paper seeks to inform policymakers, engage stakeholders, and catalyse collective efforts towards fostering a more sustainable coexistence between wildlife and humanity.

PUBLIC MANAGEMENT OF CURRENCY SECURITY IN UKRAINE: CHALLENGES AND PERSPECTIVES IN MODERN REALITIES

The article examines issues related to the effectiveness of public administration in the field of monetary security in Ukraine. The article presents general characteristics of the nature, state, and dynamics of the effectiveness of public administration in the field of currency security in Ukraine. The assessment of the current state and dynamics of the currency security indicators in Ukraine was made on the basis of the characteristics of the state monetary policy components indicators compared to similar indicators in Poland. The characteristics of exchange rate dynamics, GDP dynamics, and labour market dynamics in Ukraine and Poland are presented. The main economic factors affecting the exchange rate, namely the inflation rate and the state of the balance of trade account of the balance of payments have been considered. The main factors reducing the efficiency of Ukraine's monetary security administration are detailed. The dynamics of the indicators of the level of Ukraine's shadow economy proved to be contrary to the goals and objectives of the "Strategy of Ukraine's Economic Security until 2025". The ways to minimize the negative influencing factors and, accordingly, strengthen the implementation of monetary and credit policy and improve the efficiency of state management of monetary security of Ukraine were proposed. The development of currency circulation in Ukraine is ensured by the state's influence on monetary relations by specially authorized bodies with different legal statuses and powers. In practice, difficulties arise in the application of monetary law in the process of currency regulation. The mechanisms of interaction between state control bodies in the field of currency regulation have not yet been established, which weakens the position of the state in the currency market and hinders the process of integration into the international economic system.

Blockchain technology in drug traceability

Currently, Drug Counterfeiting is biggest challenge pharma industry is encountering as high market demand of the drugs and due to high profit margin. The lack of data transparency and lack of traceability also lured black market for the counterfeiting which impact Pharma organization and putting the life of the patient in danger. Through the Drug Supply chain substantial portion of the counterfeit drug are getting injected and distributed through healthcare supply chain network, so supply chain is playing vital role in the drug distribution and impact the patient life. Through digitalization in the healthcare sector, Blockchain technology give platform with groundbreaking results via providing the system for the drug traceability with consideration of the critical requirement of transparency, privacy, authenticity with involving any third party. In Blockchain technology, each distribution partner registered to maintain transparency with the drug information. Real time transfer the information about the change of ownership with date and time in forms of blocks giving the visibility to all the partners real time with authenticity of drugs. This article will give the information about the use of the block chain technology benefit to the pharmaceuticals industry and traceability and trackability information of drugs from end-to-end of the pharmaceutical supply chain.

COMMERCE IN THE SHADOWS: EXPLORING DARK WEB BLACK MARKETS

In the twenty-first century, several negative moments have accompanied many positive technological progress events. With the development of the digital world, criminals with special knowledge – cybercriminals have become active and have developed many means in the depths of cyberspace, with the help of which they achieve their criminal and illegal goals. The presented paper aims to analyze in detail and in-depth the system and working principles of digital black markets created by cybercriminals on the dark side of the Internet. The paper also looks at what tools and products are available on the digital black market and why digital black markets are hazardous to operate successfully. The paper analyzes practical cases, legal studies, and other interdisciplinary studies to present the problems in the legal struggle against digital black markets as of the day it was written. The paper’s primary purpose is to show why the unimpeded functioning of digital black markets on the dark web is dangerous – both for the ordinary citizen and the state structures. In the final part of the article, based on the analysis of the processed literature and practical cases, recommendations will be presented, the use of which is of particular importance to make the legal fight against digital black markets successful and to prevent such a dangerous phenomenon as digital black markets from existing in any part of the digital world.