Bivariate Probit Model Research Articles

Residential traffic noise exposure and health in Cameroon

ABSTRACT Traffic noise including road, railway and aircraft traffic noise is the main environmental noise people are exposed to. This study aims to analyse the effects of residential traffic noise pollution on health in Cameroon. For this purpose, we relied on data from the fourth Cameroon household living standards survey in our empirical analysis. To address the potential endogeneity problem of residential traffic noise exposure in the health model, we specified several recursive bivariate probit models. Health is captured by self-reported health status, while noise exposure is captured by people’s self-reported noise annoyance from traffic. Results from the selection equation estimates show that exposure to noise increases with proximity to transport infrastructures including paved roads, railways and airports. Besides, results from the outcome equation suggest that exposure to traffic noise significantly reduces the likelihood of being healthy. The more people are exposed to traffic noise, the worse their health will become. Therefore, policy-makers should implement strategies to reduce people’s exposure to traffic noise pollution in order to minimise its adverse health effects.

Willingness to pay for mangrove conservation in Sembilang National Park, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Mangrove ecosystems in the Sembilang National Park (SNP), South Sumatra, Indonesia have been degraded due to various anthropogenic pressures. Therefore, mangrove conservation actions were required. One of these actions was estimating the conservation value of mangrove forests using the willingness to pay (WTP) approach. This approach played an important role in providing alternative finance sources through public engagement when conservation funds were limited. This study aimed to estimate the mean WTP and examine the factors influencing WTP for mangrove conservation in the SNP, South Sumatra, Indonesia. The data were collected using a contingent valuation method (CVM), especially double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC). Furthermore, the survey was conducted on 170 household respondents in three villages representing the zones of the Sembilang National Park and its surroundings. The mean WTP was estimated using non-parametric (the Kaplan-Meier-Turnbul (KMT) and Spearman-Karber (SK) models) and parametric statistics (binary logistic and bivariate probit model). The estimated mean WTP from the SK and KMT models were IDR 80,417 (5.42 USD) and IDR 65,417 (4.41 USD) per household per year, respectively. Meanwhile, the results of the binary logistic and bivariate probit model were IDR 60,596 (4.08 USD) and IDR 60,274 (4.06 USD) per household per year, respectively. The results of parametric estimation revealed that gender, household size, bid, and the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of respondents had a negative and statistically significant influence on their WTP responses. On the other hand, income significantly and positively affected WTP. In contrast, age, education, occupation, and awareness had no significant impact on WTP. These findings would help the policymakers regarding mangrove conservation and advise the importance of mangrove conservation in supporting the livelihoods of local people.

The relationships between informal and formal social care for older people in England: A comparison before and after the Care Act 2014

ABSTRACT Social care is an integral part of the UK welfare system and plays an imperative role in promoting the well-being of older people. This study investigates the impacts of receiving informal social care on formal social care use among community-dwelling older people in England before and after the implementation of the Care Act 2014. Data came from the Health Survey for England for the years 2011 to 2018 (N = 17,292). Bivariate probit models were used to address the endogeneity issue. The analysis shows that receipt of informal care substitutes for formal care. Informal care had a strong substitution effect on formal personal care before 2015, which was significantly weakened after 2015. While the receipt of formal personal care has been increasingly “carer-blind,” that of formal domestic care depends on the availability of informal carers and personal affordability, which may result in unmet care needs.

Bivariate joint analysis of injury severity of drivers in truck-car crashes accommodating multilayer unobserved heterogeneity

Truck-involved crashes, especially truck-car crashes, are associated with serious and even fatal injuries, thus necessitating an in-depth analysis. Prior research focused solely on examining the injury severity of truck drivers or developed separate performance models for truck and car drivers. However, the severity of injuries to both drivers in the same truck-car crash may be interrelated, and influencing factors of injury severities sustained by the two parties may differ. To address these concerns, a random parameter bivariate probit model with heterogeneity in means (RPBPHM) is applied to examine factors affecting the injury severity of both drivers in the same truck-car crash and how these factors change over the years. Using truck-car crash data from 2017 to 2019 in the UK, the dependent variable is defined as slight injury and serious injury or fatality. Factors such as driver, vehicle, road, and environmental characteristics are statistically analyzed in this study. According to the findings, the RPBPHM model demonstrated a remarkable statistical fit, and a positive correlation was observed between the two drivers' injury severity in truck-car crashes. More importantly, the effects of the explanatory factors showing relatively temporal stability vary across different types of vehicle crashes. For example, car driver improper actions and lane changing by trucks, have a significant interactive effect on the severity of injuries sustained by drivers involved collisions between trucks and cars. Male truck drivers, young truck drivers, older truck drivers, and truck drivers' improper actions, elevate the estimated odds of only truck drivers; while older car and unsignalized crossing increase the possibility of injury severity of only car drivers. Finally, due to shared unobserved crash-specific factors, the 30-mph speed limit, dark no lights, and head-on collision, significantly affect the severity of injuries sustained by drivers involved in collisions between trucks and cars. The modeling approach provides a novel framework for jointly analyzing truck-involved crash injury severities. The findings will help policymakers take the necessary actions to reduce truck-car crashes by implementing appropriate and accurate safety countermeasures.

Application of the double bounded dichotomous choice model to the estimation of parent's willingness to pay for the hand foot mouth disease vaccination: A survey in Selangor, Malaysia.

Hand foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a notifiable viral disease in Malaysia, and is transmitted primarily among young children. Although vaccines for enteroviruses 71 (EV-71) were approved in China against HFMD, the availability and the acceptance of the vaccine in the Malaysia are unknown. This study investigated and ascertained the determinants of willingness-to-pay (WTP) for HFMD vaccination in Selangor Malaysia. This study adopted a cross-sectional, contingent valuation method involving 390 parents of young children aged six and below. The double bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) approach was employed to assess the WTP for HFMD vaccine among respondents. A bivariate probit model was used to assess the key determinants of WTP for HFMD vaccine, while the mean WTP was measured using the Krinsky and Robb procedure. We found that 279 (71.5%) of parents were willing to pay for the HFMD vaccination. The estimated single bounded mean WTP was MYR460.23 (equivalent to US$ 102.17) for two doses of HFMD vaccination. The double bounded analysis revealed that the vaccine's price, poor education background and lower income were the key factors that significantly affected the WTP, with the estimated mean WTP being MYR394.00 (US$ 87.47). In conclusion, most Malaysian parents are willing to pay for the HFMD vaccination. The estimated WTP identifies the optimal price point for HFMD vaccination in Malaysia. Furthermore, the government should focus on an awareness programme for the HFMD vaccination among parents who have lower income or education level.

Fruit and vegetable consumption across population segments: evidence from a national household survey

BackgroundThe 2002 World Health Report documented that low fruit and vegetable intake are among the top ten risk factors contributing to attributable mortality and up to three million lives could be saved each year by adequate consumption of F&V across the globe, leading an examination of behavioral preferences of the individual and family social, environmental, and behavioral factors that constitute perceived barriers to fruit and vegetable consumption.ObjectiveThe study examines factors affecting the choice of eating fruits and vegetables by household members and calculates eating frequency probabilities of different population-origin associated with personal attributes and behavior.MethodTurkish Health Survey (THS) 2019 data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TSI) national representative household panel is applied. Estimating a random-effect bivariate probit model of fruit and vegetable choice, we calculated marginal probabilities of choosing fruits and vegetables, the joint probability of choosing both, and conditional probabilities between choosing to eat either, detecting consumption synergy.ResultsThe role of uncontrolled variables in choosing to eat fruits and vegetable (F&V) differs between the decision of an average family and the decision of individual family members. The attitude is positive for an average family and contrasts with the negative attitude among some family members. Most individual and family attributes inversely affect fruit and vegetable choice across different groups, while a positive relationship exists between the likelihood of fruit and vegetable choice and attributes such as age, marital status, education, weight, having health insurance, income, and time and forms of physical activity.Conclusion and recommendationInstead of a general policy for the implementation of a healthy and balanced nutrition program to improve fruit and vegetable eating frequency, it appears more effective to adopt programs with distinct characteristics that segregate society into different cohorts. We suggest appropriate policies and offer suitable approaches to reach targeted groups.

Economic valuation of urban forest using contingent valuation method: The case of Hawassa city, Ethiopia

Urban forests are a significant and essential, but frequently ignored, component of urban landscapes. In many cases, only the resource's commercial value is taken into account when developing policies. To this end, the contingent valuation method (CVM) was applied to evaluate the economic value of urban forest parks (UFPs) in Hawassa City. This paper is estimating households’ maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for urban forest parks (UFPs) and identifying factors affecting households’ (HH's) WTP for conservation and development UFPs using double bounded (DD) CVM. The data was analyzed using a bivariate probit and probit model. Using the double bounded and open ended (OE) strategy choices, it was found that the communities' joint WTP was worth 23,209,329.6 Ethiopia Birr (ETB) and 14,761,008 ETB, respectively. The cost of conservation and development of UFP was found to be 1,696,000 ETB. According to the research, age, sex, marital status, family size, income, ownership status, education level, and bid amount have significant impact on the project's WTP. In general, the study showed that residents might gain approximately (23,209,329.6 - 1,696,000ETB) 21,513,329.6 ETB as a welfare enhancement by comparing the cost of conservation and development of UFPs with their benefits; consequently, such projects would benefit them more. As a result, the government should place greater emphasis on its UFP policies and projects. Besides, specific socioeconomic aspects should be considered when developing a project or policy for the conservation and development of UFPs in urban areas.

Other-regarding preferences in pro-environmental behaviours: Empirical analysis and policy implications of organic and local food products purchasing in Italy

This paper investigates the link between organic and local food products purchasing as pro-environmental behaviours, and “other-regarding preferences”, such as altruism, intrinsic motivation and self-image, which is measured through individuals’ environmental concerns, volunteering, participation in ecological associations and pro-social behaviours. Using the Italian data from the Multipurpose survey on households “Aspects of daily life” conducted in 2019, and bivariate probit models, this paper shows that environmental egoistic and altruistic concerns, volunteering in formal organizations and participation in ecological associations are positively correlated with the purchase of more organic and local food products. Higher pro-social behaviours correlate positively with the purchase of more local products and negatively with the purchase of more organic products. Furthermore, higher education and better household economic conditions are strongly correlated with the purchase of more organic products, while participation in cultural activities is positively associated with the purchase of more organic and local food products.

From a short-term study abroad student to a future expatriate – contrasting the effects of social support from the host-country nationals, sociocultural adaptation, and acculturation attitude

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to explore how three experiential factors – perceived social support from host-country nationals (HCNs), adaptation difficulties, and attitude towards assimilating into the host culture and society – influence the generation of worthwhile feelings and the intention to pursue expatriate career opportunities in the host country among short-term studying abroad (STSA) students.Design/methodology/approachThis study used data from a survey of 297 Thai students who studied in Chinese universities between 2015 and 2019. A bivariate probit model was applied due to its ability to account for the potential correlation of errors between the two binary outcome variables: worthwhileness and aspiration for expatriate careers.FindingsAdaptation difficulties reported by students negatively impacted their willingness to work in the host country, but did not diminish their perception of the sojourn as worthwhile. Satisfaction with social support from HCNs was found to not only enhance the worthwhileness of the sojourn but also inspire students' expatriate career intentions in the host country. The study also found that while willingness to assimilate into the host culture and society primarily enhanced the worthwhileness of the trip, its effect on students' willingness to consider working in the host country was relatively weak, compared with the effect of social support from HCNs.Research limitations/implicationsThe generalizability of the findings from this study may be limited to country pairs that are geographically and culturally similar.Originality/valueAlthough it is commonly believed that STSA programs help inspire students to develop aspirations for international careers or lifestyles, the specific roles of various factors in their experiences abroad have not been sufficiently studied. This study aims to clarify the different effects between social support received, adaptation difficulties experienced, and inner acculturation attitudes on both the evaluation of the trip itself and the long-term life goals of students participating in STSA programs.

Assessing the role of public transportation to foster city bike tourism. The case of Italy

Sustainability issues promote the combination of greener transport means when visiting urban environments. This paper focuses on bike tourists by analysing their choice of cities as a destination and the decision to use public transportation to connect within-destination places during holidays. By using data from an Italian survey on bike tourism in 2020, a bivariate probit model is used to study the role of socio-demographics, bike-related factors, travel characteristics, and cycling and accommodation features. The odds of visiting cities are positively affected by the length of stays, available commercial and bike recovery services, while the negative effect of road traffic is confirmed. Instead, combining bikes with public transportation is more likely for low-cost tourists, mainly lodging in B&Bs, and for people with higher sensitivity to bike-related services. From a transport policy perspective, our results support claims for sustainability measures jointly affecting tourists’ decisions on destinations and travel mode choices.

Employee association in Japanese family and non-family SMEs

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the nature of employee associations (EAs) and whether the EAs function as a collective voice similar to enterprise unions in Japanese small- and medium-sized enterprises by clarifying the differences in the determinants and effects between EAs and unions.Design/methodology/approachThe authors analyze 2,440 Japanese small- and medium-sized firms for determinants of unions and EAs. Using the bivariate probit model, the authors examine whether EAs complement (a way station to unionization) or substitute for (dampening the desire for unionization) traditional unionization. Furthermore, the effects of EAs and unions on voluntary employee turnover rates are compared.FindingsThe authors' findings regarding EAs are as follows: (1) although owner-managers are averse to both unions and EAs, owner-managers are not as averse to EAs as to unions; (2) EAs reduce the turnover rate to the same extent as unions do and (3) EAs are voice institutions that are less affected by the influence of unions.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitations of this study are as follows: (1) the dataset is slightly outdated; (2) due to the absence of panel data, the authors could not capture unobserved time-invariant factors that are the primary sources of endogeneity and (3) to overcome this vulnerability, the authors were able to control for the characteristics of management but not for the characteristics of employees because of a lack of information.Originality/valueThis study clarifies that non-union employee representation (NER) has the unique feature of being neither complementary nor substitutive to unions in Japan's industrial relations. EAs are organized not for union avoidance by employers, but voluntarily by employees without the aim of unionization. The associations have the same function as unions in reducing the turnover rate by resolving employees' grievances as entities independent from management.

Land Tenure Rights and Short- and Long-term Agricultural Practices: Empirical Evidence From Burkina Faso

AbstractThis study examines the impact of land tenure rights on the adoption of short- and long-term agricultural practices and the impact of these practices on the income and food insecurity for rural households in Burkina Faso. The bivariate probit model and propensity score matching are used to analyze data collected from 4,398 rural households. The results show that ownership of permanent land rights only increases the likelihood of adopting long-term agricultural practices. In addition, adoption of short-term practices increases household income and reduces food insecurity, while adoption of long-term practices only increases household income.

Effectiveness of pro-poor interventions on wealth accumulation and household engagement in income generation in Malawi

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of pro poor interventions with a special focus on wealth accumulation and diversity in income generating programs. The study used a Recursive Bivariate Probit model. The study used secondary data gathered by the Local Development Fund (LDF) in 2020 which drew a sample of 1396 households (868 beneficiaries, 528 non-beneficiaries). The study finds that participation in Livelihoods and Skills Development (LSD) programs significantly improved household asset accumulation by 14.8% and petty trading by 31.8%. Participation in Public Works Program (PWP) significantly improved asset accumulation by 17.7%. The study therefore concludes that the LSD program is more effective in helping households accumulate assets and engage in trade activities that result in improvement of income. Since the study demonstrates that the LSD program is more successful in assisting households to accumulate assets and participate in trade activities, the government should consider implementing a graduation model that extends the LSD's financial trainings to PWP and Social Cash Transfer (SCT) groups.

Drivers of rural households’ food insecurity in Ethiopia: a comprehensive approach of calorie intake and food consumption score

ABSTRACT Most food insecurity studies in developing countries, including Ethiopia, use a single food security indicator to determine the food insecurity status, thus overlooking the multidimensional nature of food security. Using cross-sectional data collected from 408 households in three districts of East Hararghe Zone, Ethiopia, this study combined two food security indicators namely calorie intake and Food Consumption Score (FCS) so as to gain more insights on the multidimensional nature of food security and to categorise households into different food insecurity groups. The study further sought to identify factors influencing the households’ food insecurity status. The research findings based respectively on the per capita calorie intake and the FCS indicate that 36.03 and 49.02 percent of the sampled households were food insecure. However, the findings reveal that when the two indicators were combined, 22.06 and 40.93 percent of the households were completely food insecure and transitory food insecure respectively. These findings also suggest that the 40.93 percent (26.96 and 13.97 percent) of households categorised as food secure based on single indicators (i.e., per capita calorie intake and FCS respectively) was unrealistic. Furthermore, findings from the bivariate probit model indicate that food insecurity incidences decreased with the adoption of soil and water conservation, access to irrigation, livestock, access to fertilisers, and household income. It increased with the age of the household head, the household size, and the coping strategy index. Therefore, policies and strategies combating food insecurity should consider a combination of food security indicators.

Contributing Factors to the Changes in Public and Private Transportation Mode Choice after the COVID-19 Outbreak in Urban Areas of China

The COVID-19 pandemic has tremendously affected the whole of human society worldwide. Travel patterns have greatly changed due to the increased risk perception and the governmental interventions regarding COVID-19. This study aimed to identify contributing factors to the changes in public and private transportation mode choice behavior in China after COVID-19 based on an online questionnaire survey. In the survey, travel behaviors in three periods were studied: before the outbreak (before 27 December 2019), the peak (from 20 January to 17 March 2020), and after the peak (from 18 March to the date of the survey). A series of random-parameter bivariate Probit models was developed to quantify the relationship between individual characteristics and the changes in travel mode choice. The key findings indicated that individual sociodemographic characteristics (e.g., gender, age, ownership, occupation, residence) have significant effects on the changes in mode choice behavior. Other key findings included (1) a higher propensity to use a taxi after the peak compared to urban public transportation (i.e., bus and subway); (2) a significant impact of age on the switch from public transit to private car and two-wheelers; (3) more obvious changes in private car and public transportation modes in more developed cities. The findings from this study are expected to be useful for establishing partial and resilient policies and ensuring sustainable mobility and travel equality in the post-pandemic era.

Does Mobile Money Adoption Increase Informal Business Performance in Zambia?

Innovation in digital technology has changed the way firms make business. The objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of mobile money adoption on the performance of informal businesses in Zambia. The data are from the 2019 Zambia Informal Sector Business Survey of the World Bank Group with a sample of 914 firms. An instrumental variable bivariate probit model was used to analyse the data. We find that mobile money use helps significantly improve informal business performance. The finding is robust for different purposes of mobile money use. These results can be attributed to the lower transaction costs and the improved liquidity related to the use of mobile money financial services. An important policy implication is that the use of digital technologies such as mobile money could be a key element for improving informal business performance.

The causal effect of catastrophic health expenditure on poverty in Poland.

Out-of-pocket medical expenses are a crucial source of health care financing in a number of countries. With the ongoing population aging, health care costs are likely to increase. Therefore, disentangling the relationship between health care spending and monetary poverty is becoming increasingly important. Although there is extensive literature on the impoverishment effect of out-of-pocket medical payments, it lacks empirical studies on a causal relationship between catastrophic health expenditure and poverty. In our paper, we try to fill this gap. We estimate recursive bivariate probit models using Polish Household Budget Survey data covering years from 2010 to 2013 and from 2016 to 2018. The model controls for a wide range of factors and endogeneity between poverty and catastrophic health expenditure. We show that the causal relationship between catastrophic health expenditure and relative poverty is significant and positive across different methodological approaches. We find no empirical evidence that a one-time incidence of catastrophic health expenditure creates a poverty trap. We also show that using a poverty measure which treats out-of-pocket medical payments and luxury consumption as perfect substitutes can lead to an underestimation of poverty among the elderly. Out-of-pocket medical payments should probably receive more attention from policymakers than the official statistics suggest. A current challenge is to correctly identify and appropriately support those who are most affected by catastrophic health expenditure. More prospectively, a complex modernization of the Polish public health system is needed.

Effect of general health checks on the treatment of chronic diseases: accounting for self-selection in the retrospective cohort study using Korea National Health Insurance data

ObjectiveThis study examines the effect of general health checks on the detection and treatment of diabetes and hypertension with controlling for the self-selection problem of undergoing general health checks.DesignRetrospective observational...

Do forecasts of bankruptcy cause bankruptcy? A machine learning sensitivity analysis

It is widely speculated that auditors’ public forecasts of bankruptcy are, at least in part, self-fulfilling prophecies in the sense that they actually cause bankruptcies that would not have otherwise occurred. This conjecture is hard to prove, however, because the strong association between bankruptcies and bankruptcy forecasts could simply indicate that auditors are skillful forecasters with unique access to highly predictive covariates. In this paper we investigate the causal effect of bankruptcy forecasts on bankruptcy using nonparametric sensitivity analysis. We contrast our analysis with two alternative approaches: a linear bivariate probit model with an endogenous regressor and a recently developed bound on risk ratios called E-values. Additionally, our machine learning approach incorporates a monotonicity constraint corresponding to the assumption that bankruptcy forecasts do not make bankruptcies less likely. Finally, a tree-based posterior summary of the treatment effect estimates allows us to explore which observable firm characteristics moderate the inducement effect.

Linking Crop Specialization to Agricultural Commercialization: Empirical Evidence from the Northern Savannah Ecological Zone of Ghana

Specialization and intensification have been the main focuses of agricultural development and modernization for decades, among those who claim that doing so will increase agricultural output. Specialization and commercialization in agriculture are linked to greater efficiency than subsistence farming, as these can boost the production and competitiveness of smallholder farmers. However, in recent years, some have questioned this model's resilience and long-term viability. Specialization, as well as increasing output and commercialization, are part of the agricultural transformation processes. Research needs to be done to answer why farmers switch to high-value crop production to increase profits and deal with the resultant issues. The question of whether crop specialization would lead to greater commercialization within the Ghanaian context requires an answer. This study explores the link between crop specialization and agricultural commercialization by utilizing secondary data from the Ghana Feed the Future baseline survey involving a total sample of 2,952 farm households. As a novelty, the study addresses the seeming simultaneity between crop specialization and agricultural commercialization that has been overlooked in the literature. The bivariate probit regression result indicates that estimating separate univariate probit models is inappropriate. Therefore, failure to jointly model crop specialization and commercialization could yield biased estimates. This study applies the recursive bivariate probit model to establish a causal relationship between crop specialization and agricultural commercialization. The findings have revealed that crop specialization stimulates commercialization. The synergy between crop specialization and agricultural commercialization has implications for enhancing food security and increasing farmers' incomes. To improve commercialization and crop specialization, the Government of Ghana should intensify land registration and modify the land tenure systems to make lands easily accessible to farmers.