The long-term safety of proposed repositories for nuclear waste is demonstrated by the use of chains of mathematical models describing the performance of the various barriers to radionuclide mobilisation, transport, release into the biosphere and eventual uptake by man. Microbial contamination of such repositories is to be expected, and hence the extent and consequences of microbial activity must also be quantified. This paper describes a modelling approach to determine the maximum microbial activity in the near field of a repository, which can thus be related to maximum possible degradation of performance. The approach is illustrated by application to a proposed Swiss repository for low- and intermediate-level waste (L/ILW), which is immobilised in concrete and emplaced in a marl host rock.