Distribution Of Biomes Research Articles

Climate shapes mammal community trophic structures and humans simplify them

Nature’s complexity is intriguing, but the circumstances determining whether or how order emerges from such complexity remains a matter of extensive research. Using the geographical distributions and food preferences of all terrestrial mammal species with masses >3 kg, we show that large mammals group into feeding guilds (species exploiting similar resources) and that these guilds form trophic structures that vary across biomes globally. We identify five trophic structures closely matching climate variability and named them boreal, temperate, semiarid, seasonal tropical and humid tropical owing to their relative overlap with the distribution of biomes. We also find that human activities simplify trophic structures, generally transitioning them to species-poorer states. Detected transitions include boreal and temperate structures becoming depauperate or seasonal- and humid-tropical becoming semiarid. Whether the observed generalities among trophic structures of large mammals are indicative of patterns across whole food webs is matter for further investigation. The results help refine projections of the effects of environmental change on the trophic structure of large mammals.

Ecological niche models as a tool for estimating the distribution of plant communities

Ecological niche models allow inferences about the distribution of species and communities, facilitating the identification of priority areas for conservation, mainly in threatened environments such as the seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF). The objectives of this work were to delimit SDTF using mostly restricted and endemic vascular plant species, in addition to evaluating and comparing the performance of the model with 4 additional proposals of the distribution of SDTF in Michoacan. To delimit the distribution of SDTF in Michoacan, 76 individual ecological niche models were constructed. Then, the individual models were assembled to obtain the biome distribution model, and the resulting map was compared with the other SDTF proposals for Michoacan. The model best supported by the observed data and balanced in the percentage of omission and commission errors was our model, and the model most like ours in terms of the predicted area, was the one proposed by INEGI (2003). The use of widely distributed species in the definition of communities results in models with greater overestimation. It is important to adapt the available information and knowledge about the object of study, to properly integrate them into the different algorithms that allow us to obtain an approximation of what happens with the species or communities.

Northern Hemisphere biome changes (>30°N) since 40 cal ka BP and their driving factors inferred from model-data comparisons

Ongoing and past biome transitions are generally assigned to climate and atmospheric changes (e.g. temperature, precipitation, CO2), but the major regional factors or factor combinations that drive vegetation change often remain unknown. Modelling studies applying ensemble runs can help to partition the effects of the different drivers. Such studies require careful validation with observational data. In this study, fossil pollen records from 741 sites in Europe, 728 sites in North America, and 418 sites in Asia (extracted from terrestrial archives including lake sediments) are used to reconstruct biomes at selected time slices between 40 cal ka BP (calibrated thousand years before present) and today. These results are used to validate Northern Hemisphere biome distributions (>30°N) simulated by the biome model BIOME4 that has been forced with climate data simulated by a General Circulation model. Quantitative comparisons between pollen- and model-based results show a generally good fit at a broad spatial scale. Mismatches occur in central-arid Asia with a broader extent of grassland throughout the last 40 ka (likely due to the over-representation of Artemisia and Chenopodiaceae pollen) and in Europe with over-estimation of tundra at 0 cal ka BP (likely due to human impacts to some extent). Sensitivity analysis reveals that broad-scale biome changes follow the global signal of major postglacial temperature change, although the climatic variables vary in their regional and temporal importance. Temperature is the dominant variable in Europe and other rather maritime areas for biome changes between 21 and 14 ka, while precipitation is highly important in the arid inland regions of Asia and North America. The ecophysiological effect of changes in the atmospheric CO2-concentration has the highest impact during this transition than in other intervals. With respect to modern vegetation in the course of global warming, our findings imply that vegetation change in the Northern Hemisphere may be strongly limited by effective moisture changes, i.e. the combined effect of temperature and precipitation, particularly in inland areas.

Investigating the Effect of the Environment on Prey Detection Ability in Humans

Visual search experiments used in the field of psychology may be applied to investigate the relationship between environments and prey detection rates that could influence hunting behaviours in ancient humans. Two lab-based experiments were designed to examine the effects of differing virtual environments, representing Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3) in Europe, on participants’ ability to locate prey. The results show that prey detection performance is highly influenced by vegetation structure, both in terms of the biome type (wooded vs. grassland environments) and the density of the vegetation (trees in wooded and shrubs in grassland environments). However, the density of vegetation has a greater relative effect in grassland than in wooded biomes. Closer examination of the transition between biomes (relative percentages of trees vs. shrubs) at the same vegetative density shows a non-linear relationship between prey detection performance and the relative tree to shrub percentages. Changes in the distribution of biomes occurred throughout the Quaternary. The composition of those biomes will have likely affected hominin hunting behaviours because of their intermediary effects on prey detection performance. This may, therefore, have played a role in the turn-overs of hunter-gatherer hominin populations during MIS3 and at other times in the Quaternary.

Multifunctionality debt in global drylands linked to past biome and climate.

Past vegetation and climatic conditions are known to influence current biodiversity patterns. However, whether their legacy effects affect the provision of multiple ecosystem functions, that is, multifunctionality, remains largely unknown. Here we analyzed soil nutrient stocks and their transformation rates in 236 drylands from six continents to evaluate the associations between current levels of multifunctionality and legacy effects of theLast Glacial Maximum (LGM) desert biome distribution and climate. We found that past desert distribution and temperature legacy, defined as increasing temperature from LGM, were negatively correlated with contemporary multifunctionality even after accounting for predictors such as current climate, soil texture, plant species richness, and site topography. Ecosystems that have been deserts since the LGM had up to 30% lower contemporary multifunctionality compared with those that were nondeserts during the LGM. In addition, ecosystems that experienced higher warming rates since the LGM had lower contemporary multifunctionality than those suffering lower warming rates, with a ~9% reduction per extra degree Celsius. Past desert distribution and temperature legacies had direct negative effects, while temperature legacy also had indirect (via soil sand content) negative effects on multifunctionality. Our results indicate that past biome and climatic conditions have left a strong "functionality debt" in global drylands. They also suggest that ongoing warming and expansion of desert areas may leave a strong fingerprint in the future functioning of dryland ecosystems worldwide that needs to be considered when establishing management actions aiming to combat land degradation and desertification.

Commonly Encountered Skin Biome-Derived Pathogens after Orthopedic Surgery.

Background: Normal skin microbiota influence susceptibility to surgical infections. The distribution of skin bacteria differs by anatomic site, and given the right conditions, almost any of these bacteria can become an opportunistic pathogen. Methods: This paper provides a thorough review of the most commonly encountered bacteria in various regions of the body and their isolation from operative incisions at those locations. These data may be useful in optimizing targeted antibiotic therapy for surgical site infections and provide a better understanding of the skin biome distribution at specific surgical sites. Conclusion: Typical skin-borne flora, surgical site infections, orthopedic infections by body part, and drug-resistant pathogens are reviewed.

Grass and tree cover responses to intra-seasonal rainfall variability vary along a rainfall gradient in African tropical grassy biomes

Although it is well known that mean annual rainfall (MAR) and rainfall seasonality have a key role in influencing the distribution of tree and grass cover in African tropical grassy biomes (TGBs), the impact of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on these distributions is less agreed upon. Since the prevalent mechanisms determining biome occurrence and distribution change with MAR, this research investigates the role of intra-seasonal rainfall variability for three different MAR ranges, assessing satellite data on grass and tree cover, rainfall and fire intervals at a sub-continental scale in sub-Saharan Africa. For MAR below 630 mm y−1, rainfall frequency had a positive relationship with grass cover; this relationship however became mostly negative at intermediate MAR (630–1200 mm y−1), where tree cover correspondingly mostly increased with rainfall frequency. In humid TGBs, tree cover decreased with rainfall intensity. Overall, intra-seasonal rainfall variability plays a role in determining vegetation cover, especially in mesic TGBs, where the relative dominance of trees and grasses has previously been largely unexplained. Importantly, the direction of the effect of intra-seasonal variability changes with MAR. Given the predicted increases in rainfall intensity in Africa as a consequence of climate change, the effects on TGBs are thus likely to vary depending on the MAR levels.

Harmonising plant functional type distributions for evaluating Earth system models

Abstract. Dynamic vegetation models simulate global vegetation in terms of fractional coverage of a few plant functional types (PFTs). Although these models often share the same concept, they differ with respect to the number and kind of PFTs, complicating the comparability of simulated vegetation distributions. Pollen-based vegetation reconstructions are initially only available in the form of time series of individual taxa that are not distinguished in the models. Thus, to evaluate simulated vegetation distributions, the modelling results and pollen-based vegetation reconstructions have to be converted into a comparable format. The classical approach is the method of biomisation, but hitherto PFT-based biomisation methods were only available for individual models. We introduce and evaluate a simple, universally applicable technique to harmonise PFT distributions by assigning them into nine mega-biomes, using only assumptions on the minimum PFT cover fractions and few bioclimatic constraints (based on the 2 m temperature). These constraints mainly follow the limitation rules used in the classical biome models (here BIOME4). We test the method for six state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation models that are included in Earth system models based on pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum simulations. The method works well, independent of the spatial resolution or the complexity of the models. Large biome belts (such as tropical forest) are generally better represented than regionally confined biomes (warm–temperate forest, savanna). The comparison with biome distributions inferred via the classical biomisation approach of forcing biome models (here BIOME1) with the simulated climate states shows that the PFT-based biomisation is even able to keep up with the classical method. However, as the new method considers the PFT distributions actually calculated by the Earth system models, it allows for a direct comparison and evaluation of simulated vegetation distributions which the classical method cannot do. Thereby, the new method provides a powerful tool for the evaluation of Earth system models in general.

Simulation of the Holocene climate over South America and impacts on the vegetation

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the Holocene climate and vegetation changes over South America through numerical simulations. Holocene climate for several periods (8 ka, 6 ka, 4 ka, 2 ka, and present) were simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model, forced with orbital parameters, CO2 concentrations, and sea surface temperature (SST), while the analysis of the biome distributions was made with a potential vegetation model (PVM). Compared with the present climate, our four simulated periods of the Holocene were characterized by reduced South Atlantic Convergence Zone intensity and weaker South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The model simulated conditions drier than present over most of South America and gradual strengthening of SAMS toward the present. The Northeast Brazil was wetter because of southward migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Moreover, SST conditions were the main forcing for the climate changes during the mid Holocene inducing larger austral summer southward ITCZ migration. PVM paleovegetation projections are shown to be consistent with paleodata proxies which suggest fluctuations between biomes, despite the fact that ages of dry/wet indicators are not synchronous over large areas of the Amazonian ecosystem. Holocene PVM simulations show distinct retreat in Amazonian forest biome in all four simulated periods. In 6 ka, present caatinga vegetation in Northeastern Brazil was replaced with savanna or dense shrubland. The simulations also suggest the existence of rainforest in western Amazonia and the expansion of savanna and seasonal forest in the eastern Amazon, with shifts in plant community compositions and fragmentation located mostly in ecotone regions. Moreover, our PVM results show that during the Holocene, the Amazonian tropical forest was smaller in area than today, although western Amazonia persisted as a tropical forest throughout the Holocene.

Altitudinal distribution of pollen, plants and biomes in the Cameroon highlands

Pollen–plant–biome relationships have been studied from 48 new soil surface samples taken along an altitudinal gradient in the Cameroon highlands in order to capture the major features of the tropical montane vegetation. Although our study is based on a relatively feeble number of samples due to difficulties to access natural landscapes in this area, the main vegetation belts are accurately reconstructed. Comparison between pollen and plant distribution has been used to identify taxa characteristic of the mountain forest and to identify eventual bias due to pollen productivity and transport. Taking that into account, we have shown that there is a potential for reliable biome reconstruction of the Afromontane forest the upper and lower limits of which are correctly reconstructed. Our study fills the gap in reconstructing African biomes from pollen data, thus providing elements to capture the vulnerability of Afromontane ecosystems to climate changes.

Transplant Experiments Point to Fire Regime as Limiting Savanna Tree Distribution

Plant species range shifts are predicted to occur in response to climate change. The predictions are often based on the assumption that climate is the primary factor limiting the distribution of species. However the distribution of grassy biomes in Africa cannot be predicted by climate alone, instead interactions between vegetation, climate and disturbance structure the ecosystems. To test if climatic variables, as predicted by an environmental niche model, determine the distribution limits of two common savanna tree species we established a transplant experiment at a range of latitudes and altitudes much broader than the distribution limits of our study species. We planted seedlings of two common savanna trees, Senegalia nigrescens and Colophospermum mopane, at eight paired high and low elevation sites across an 850 km latitudinal gradient in South African savannas. At each site seedlings were planted in both grassy and cleared plots. After two years of growth, rainfall, temperature and location inside or outside their distribution range did not explain species success. Grass competition was the only variable that significantly affected plant growth rates across all sites, but grass competition alone could not explain the distribution limit. Species distributions were best predicted when maximum tree growth rates were considered in relation to local fire return intervals. The probability of sapling escape from the fire trap was the most likely determinant of distribution limits of these two species. As trees grew and survived 100s of kilometers south of their current range limits we conclude that climate alone does not explain the current distribution of these trees, and that climate change adaptation strategies for savanna environments based only on climatic envelope modelling will be inappropriate.

Global mapping of potential natural vegetation: an assessment of machine learning algorithms for estimating land potential.

Potential natural vegetation (PNV) is the vegetation cover in equilibrium with climate, that would exist at a given location if not impacted by human activities. PNV is useful for raising public awareness about land degradation and for estimating land potential. This paper presents results of assessing machine learning algorithms—neural networks (nnet package), random forest (ranger), gradient boosting (gbm), K-nearest neighborhood (class) and Cubist—for operational mapping of PNV. Three case studies were considered: (1) global distribution of biomes based on the BIOME 6000 data set (8,057 modern pollen-based site reconstructions), (2) distribution of forest tree taxa in Europe based on detailed occurrence records (1,546,435 ground observations), and (3) global monthly fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) values (30,301 randomly-sampled points). A stack of 160 global maps representing biophysical conditions over land, including atmospheric, climatic, relief, and lithologic variables, were used as explanatory variables. The overall results indicate that random forest gives the overall best performance. The highest accuracy for predicting BIOME 6000 classes (20) was estimated to be between 33% (with spatial cross-validation) and 68% (simple random sub-setting), with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly temperatures, and bioclimatic layers. Predicting forest tree species (73) resulted in mapping accuracy of 25%, with the most important predictors being monthly cloud fraction, mean annual and monthly temperatures, and elevation. Regression models for FAPAR (monthly images) gave an R-square of 90% with the most important predictors being total annual precipitation, monthly cloud fraction, CHELSA bioclimatic layers, and month of the year, respectively. Further developments of PNV mapping could include using all GBIF records to map the global distribution of plant species at different taxonomic levels. This methodology could also be extended to dynamic modeling of PNV, so that future climate scenarios can be incorporated. Global maps of biomes, FAPAR and tree species at one km spatial resolution are available for download via http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/QQHCIK.

Rare frost events reinforce tropical savanna–forest boundaries

Abstract The ability of vegetation to ameliorate or exacerbate environmental extremes can generate feedbacks that mediate the distribution of biomes. It has been suggested that feedbacks between vegetation and frost damage may be important for maintaining savanna, particularly at the edge of the tropics. We quantified frost damage and air temperature across a network of 30 permanent plots distributed across tropical savanna–forest boundaries in Brazil during an uncommonly hard frost. Tree cover strongly buffered temperatures during frost events, such that forest sites were up to 5°C warmer than nearby sites occupied by open shrub savanna. Consequently, in forest, woody plants were not damaged, but in savanna, there was extensive dieback of trees and shrubs. Within savanna, frost had disproportionately large effects on small individuals, likely due to colder temperatures near the ground and the lower thermal mass of thin stems. Across species, frost tolerance was strongly correlated with latitudinal range limit, revealing the importance of minimum temperature as a species filter at the regional scale. Counterintuitively, savanna species, which are adapted to open habitats where frost is more likely, were more vulnerable to cold than were forest species and experienced more than twice the amount of leaf damage as co‐occurring forest species. Synthesis. Frost reinforces the effects of fire on vegetation structure by preferentially damaging trees in open environments and generating high loads of dead, flammable fuels. However, frost does not currently occur with sufficient frequency in the region to maintain open savanna by itself. Nevertheless, it occurs with sufficient frequency and severity that it likely acts as an environmental filter and evolutionary selective factor for some of the most frost‐sensitive species.

Identifying opportunities for long-lasting habitat conservation and restoration in Hawaii’s shifting climate

Conservation efforts in isolated archipelagos such as Hawaii often focus on habitat-based conservation and restoration efforts that benefit multiple species. Unfortunately, identifying locations where such efforts are safer from climatic shifts is still challenging. We aimed to provide a method to approximate these potential habitat shifts for similar data- and research-limited contexts. We modeled the relationship between climate and the potential distribution of native biomes across the Hawaiian archipelago to provide a first approximation of potential native biome shifts under end-of-century projected climate. Our correlative model circumvents the lack of data necessary for the parameterization of mechanistic vegetation models in isolated and data-poor islands. We identified locations consistently expected to remain the same in terms of the native biome compatibility by the end of the century with a robust evaluation of sources of uncertainty in our projections. Our results show that, despite large differences in climate projections considered, 35% of the areas considered are consistently projected to maintain their current compatibility to native biomes. By integrating our native biome compatibility projections with maps of current actual cover, we identified areas ideal for long-term habitat conservation and restoration. Our modeling approach can be used with relatively simple data; offers multiple forms of projection confidence estimates, model calibration, and variable selection routines; and is compatible with ensemble projections. This method is not only applicable to potential native cover, as done in this study, but to any set of vegetation classes that are related to environmental predictors available for modeling.

Spatial patterns in the global distributions of savanna and forest

AbstractAimThe global distribution of biomes is not solely determined by climate. Top‐down processes, most notably fire, may substantially expand savannas into potentially forested areas. Here, we address an overlooked aspect of the existing literature: spatial patterns in savanna and forest distributions and the transitions between them, and whether current transitions could plausibly reproduce current distributions.LocationTropical Africa and South America.Time period2000–2012.Major taxa studiedBiomes.MethodsUsing remotely sensed tree cover and rainfall, we examined the distributions of savanna and forest and of transitions between the two. We examined forest gain directly, but because forest loss mostly reflects direct anthropogenic deforestation, we instead examined the proportion of forests experiencing one or more fires as an indirect proxy for potential conversion of forest into savanna. The effects of biome transitions on biome movements and distributions at continental scale were evaluated using a cellular automata model via simulation using observed decadal rates of transitions.ResultsAlthough open‐ and closed‐canopy systems were both common at intermediate rainfall, they were strongly spatially segregated. So too were forest fires, which occurred mostly near their boundary with savannas, while forest encroachment of savanna was widespread. Simulations showed that observed transitions could not have produced current biome distributions.Main conclusionsBiome distributions in the tropics are not exclusively determined by climate (especially at intermediate rainfall), but are nonetheless strongly spatially structured. Current transitions between savanna and forest could not have reproduced their current distributions, suggesting that, historically, the spatial structure of transitions was probably different than it is today. While forest sub‐canopy fires are still spatially structured, forest encroachment of savannas may be much more widespread than it was in the past.

Not only trees: Grasses determine African tropical biome distributions via water limitation and fire

AbstractAimAlthough much tropical ecology generally focuses on trees, grasses are fundamental for characterizing the extensive tropical grassy biomes (TGBs) and, together with the tree functional types, for determining the contrasting functional patterns of TGBs and tropical forests (TFs). To study the factors that determine African biome distribution and the transitions between them, we performed the first continental analysis to include grass and tree functional types.LocationSub‐Saharan Africa.Time period2000–2010.Major taxa studiedSavanna and forest trees and C4 grasses.MethodsWe combined remote‐sensing data with a land cover map, using tree functional types to identify TGBs and TFs. We analysed the relationships of grass and tree cover with fire interval, rainfall annual average and seasonality.ResultsIn TGBs experiencing < 630 mm annual rainfall, grass growth was water limited. Grass cover and fire recurrence were strongly and directly related over the entire subcontinent. Some TGBs and TFs with annual rainfall > 1,200 mm had the same rainfall seasonality but displayed strongly different fire regimes.Main conclusionsWater limitation to grass growth was fundamental in the driest TGBs, acting alongside the well‐known limitation to tree growth. Marked differences in fire regimes across all biomes indicated that fire was especially relevant for maintaining mesic and humid TGBs. At high rainfall, our results support the hypothesis of TGBs and TFs being alternative stable states maintained by a vegetation–fire feedback for similar climatic conditions.

Steal the light: shade vs fire adapted vegetation in forest-savanna mosaics.

Shade cast by trees, which suppresses grass growth, and fire fuelled by grass biomass, which prevents tree sapling establishment, are mutually exclusive and self-reinforcing drivers of biome distribution in savanna-forest mosaics. We investigated how shade depth, represented by canopy leaf area index (LAI), is generated by adult trees across savanna-forest boundaries and how a shade gradient filters tree functioning, and grass composition and biomass. Forest trees exerted greater shading through increased stem density and greater light interception per unit biomass. A critical transition at LAI c. 1.5 was linked to tree shifts from savanna to forest species, functional shifts from fire-tolerant to light-competitive species, and grass composition shifts from C4 to C3 pathways. A second transition to grass fuel loads too low to support fires, occurred at a lower canopy density (LAI>0.5), accompanied by shifts in C4 subtype dominance. This pattern suggests that shade suppression of grass biomass is an essential first step for the maintenance of alternative stable states.

The role of birds in Late Pleistocene Eurosiberian-Mediterranean boundary reconstructions in Western Europe

Birds have been considered good climate indicators in Pleistocene environmental reconstructions, due to their current distribution and specific ecological requirements. They have been analyzed as associations and in some cases also as indicator species for the climate during the Late Pleistocene, which is a stage that shows strong climatic fluctuations. In this work we present an analysis of the relative abundances of thirty-three of these indicator species of Aves in Late Pleistocene Western European sites, in order to characterize the avian associations and bird species behavior, and also shed light on the corresponding ecosystems of the different geographical areas of Europe during this stage. Our analysis reveals four main groups of sites, which correspond mainly to the current biome distribution. Nevertheless, the position of some sites in the analysis is markedly different, revealing a drift southward of the Eurosiberian-Mediterranean boundary during the Late Pleistocene. The results also allow us to analyze the behavior of the various species, whose distributions seem to be controlled by the predominant vegetation in each area more than by the temperature. The different associations of each area suggest that Central Europe was forested or at least point to the presence of forest patches in this area at the end of the Pleistocene. They also reveal the need for avian association analysis instead of the use of isolated bird species to produce landscape and climate reconstructions.

Simulated sensitivity of African terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis to rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length

There is growing evidence of ongoing changes in the statistics of intra-seasonal rainfall variability over large parts of the world. Changes in annual total rainfall may arise from shifts, either singly or in a combination, of distinctive intra-seasonal characteristics –i.e. rainfall frequency, rainfall intensity, and rainfall seasonality. Understanding how various ecosystems respond to the changes in intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics is critical for predictions of future biome shifts and ecosystem services under climate change, especially for arid and semi-arid ecosystems. Here, we use an advanced dynamic vegetation model (SEIB-DGVM) coupled with a stochastic rainfall/weather simulator to answer the following question: how does the productivity of ecosystems respond to a given percentage change in the total seasonal rainfall that is realized by varying only one of the three rainfall characteristics (rainfall frequency, intensity, and rainy season length)? We conducted ensemble simulations for continental Africa for a realistic range of changes (−20% ~ +20%) in total rainfall amount. We find that the simulated ecosystem productivity (measured by gross primary production, GPP) shows distinctive responses to the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics. Specifically, increase in rainfall frequency can lead to 28% more GPP increase than the same percentage increase in rainfall intensity; in tropical woodlands, GPP sensitivity to changes in rainy season length is ~4 times larger than to the same percentage changes in rainfall frequency or intensity. In contrast, shifts in the simulated biome distribution are much less sensitive to intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics than they are to total rainfall amount. Our results reveal three major distinctive productivity responses to seasonal rainfall variability—‘chronic water stress’, ‘acute water stress’ and ‘minimum water stress’ - which are respectively associated with three broad spatial patterns of African ecosystem physiognomy, i.e. savannas, woodlands, and tropical forests.

Limited validation of forecasted northward range shift in ten European tree species from a common garden experiment

Abstract As climate change leads to global warming and modified precipitation patterns, the distribution of forest biomes and tree species is expected to shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes. Such shifts are currently projected by species distribution models fitted to different climate change scenarios. Field validation of these models for several life stages of different tree species is a necessity to adapt forest management and understand the future of forest ecosystems. The study presented here aims to assess whether signs of the projected near-future range shift, contraction or expansion of ten European forest tree species are already observable in survival and growth of their seedlings at the core, leading and trailing edges of their distribution. The results show limited validation of the projected near-future changes in spatial distribution: seedling survival and growth paralleled modelled near-future habitat suitability for the three Mediterranean/Southern species, whereas cold-adapted species showed limited validation of model projections with lower growth and survival at their trailing edge; and widespread species showed inconsistent performance with model projections. Individuals of contrasting provenances did not show strong differences in survival; however they did show substantial differences in growth. The role of extreme events and biotic interactions might prove to be more important factors into shaping the future realized niche and the distribution of these species and thus should be investigated to complete the current studies on latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in relation to climate change.