Biogeochemical Model Research Articles

A New Coupled Biogeochemical Modeling Approach Provides Accurate Predictions of Methane and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Wetlands

AbstractTidal wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services, including storing large amounts of carbon. However, the net exchanges of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. While several biogeochemical models can operate in tidal wetlands, they have yet to be parameterized and validated against high‐frequency, ecosystem‐scale CO2 and CH4 flux measurements across diverse sites. We paired the Cohort Marsh Equilibrium Model (CMEM) with a version of the PEPRMT model called PEPRMT‐Tidal, which considers the effects of water table height, sulfate, and nitrate availability on CO2 and CH4 emissions. Using a model‐data fusion approach, we parameterized the model with three sites and validated it with two independent sites, with representation from the three marine coasts of North America. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) modules explained, on average, 73% of the variation in CO2 exchange with low model error (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <1). The CH4 module also explained the majority of variance in CH4 emissions in validation sites (R2 = 0.54; nRMSE = 1.15). The PEPRMT‐Tidal‐CMEM model coupling is a key advance toward constraining estimates of greenhouse gas emissions across diverse North American tidal wetlands. Further analyses of model error and case studies during changing salinity conditions guide future modeling efforts regarding four main processes: (a) the influence of salinity and nitrate on GPP, (b) the influence of laterally transported dissolved inorganic C on Reco, (c) heterogeneous sulfate availability and methylotrophic methanogenesis impacts on surface CH4 emissions, and (d) CH4 responses to non‐periodic changes in salinity.

Foraminiferal denitrification and deep bioirrigation influence benthic biogeochemical cycling in a seasonally hypoxic fjord

Benthic macro- and micro-biota often play significant roles in controlling the biogeochemical dynamics in sediments. Their activity can be influenced by oxygen availability and impacted by the rise in global hypoxia in coastal regions over the last decades. To understand how these organisms interact with coastal hypoxia and influence sediment biogeochemistry, we undertook a study of early diagenesis in Bedford Basin, a seasonally hypoxic fjord on the West Atlantic coast in Nova Scotia, Canada, using a combination of observations and reaction-transport modeling. We observed that the seafloor was a source of ammonium and sink of nitrate with average fluxes of 2.2 ± 1.8 and −0.9 ± 0.7 mmol m−2 d−1 respectively. The diffusive oxygen uptake was 14 ± 4.6 mmol m−2 d−1 and the total organic carbon content in collected sediment cores was 5–7 % with a C/N ratio of ∼10. The pyrite content increased steadily from 0.5 wt% Fe at surface to ∼2 wt% Fe at 20 cm depth. Hydrogen sulfide was negligible down to 25 cm depth most of the time. The sediment was inhabited by tube-forming polychaete Spiochaetopterus sp. that formed tubes up to ∼30 cm in length. The living foraminiferal assemblage in the top 5 cm sediment was found to be dominated (>85 %) by nitrate-storing and denitrifying benthic foraminifera Stainforthia fusiformis. These observations were used to develop and constrain a biogeochemical reaction-transport model. The model results suggest that the observed decrease in porewater concentrations of ammonium and dissolved inorganic carbon below 5 cm depth, was due to deep bioirrigation by tubeworms, accounting for almost 50 % of the benthic efflux. The model further revealed that the deep bioirrigation along with bioturbation and iron cycling prevented accumulation of free sulfide in the top 25 cm sediment despite oxygen penetration depths of ∼1 mm. Modelled organic carbon and nitrogen deposition was 25.2 and 2.9 mmol m−2 d−1 with burial efficiencies of 23 % and 17 %, respectively. The model indicated a total denitrification rate of 1.3 mmol N m−2 d−1 that was largely (∼70 %) driven by benthic foraminifera. This study reports the first evidence of foraminiferal denitrification in western Atlantic coastal sediments, and suggests that eukaryote mediated denitrification is an important driver of sediment N-loss in seasonally hypoxic environments, a process that has been traditionally assumed to be carried out by prokaryotic microbes.

The Rapid Response of Southern Ocean Biological Productivity to Changes in Background Small Scale Turbulence

AbstractBackground subsurface vertical mixing rates in the Southern Ocean (SO) are known to vary by an order of magnitude temporally and spatially, due to variability in their generating mechanisms, which include winds and shear instabilities at the surface, and the interaction of tides and lee waves with rough bottom topography. There is great uncertainty in the parameterization of this mixing in coarse resolution Earth System Models (ESM), and in the impact that this has on SO biological productivity on sub decadal timescales. Using a data assimilating biogeochemical ocean model we show that SO phytoplankton productivity is highly sensitive to differences in background diapycnal mixing over short timescales. Changes in the background vertical mixing rates alter key biogeochemical and physical conditions. The greatest changes to the distribution of physical and biogeochemical tracers occur in regions with very strong tracer vertical gradients. A combination of reduced nutrient limitation and reduced light limitation causes a strong increase in SO phytoplankton productivity with higher background mixing. This leads to increased summer carbon export but reduced wintertime export over the mixed layer depth, which could alter the strength of the SO biological carbon pump and atmospheric concentrations on centennial to millennial timescales. This study demonstrates the importance of accurately representing diapycnal mixing in ESM to predict SO biogeochemical dynamics and their broader climatic implications.

Intercropping Legumes Improves Long Term Productivity and Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks in Sub‐Saharan Africa

AbstractFood, feed, and fiber production needs to increase to support demands of the growing population in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), while soil fertility continues to decline. Intercropping, the cultivation of two or more crop species on the same field, can provide yield benefits and is suggested to positively affect soil organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks. This study uses the biogeochemical model system LandscapeDNDC with the objective to (a) represent maize‐legume intercropping systems in different bioregions in SSA by simultaneously simulating both crops and their interactions and (b) assess long‐term (20 years) impacts of intercropping under varying mineral fertilizer inputs (0–150 kg N ha−1 yr−1) on productivity as well as soil organic C and N stocks. We test LandscapeDNDC on 82 field data sets (site‐year‐treatment combinations) from 18 sites to represent yields and soil C/N dynamics of maize‐legume intercropping systems. Using the model for long‐term scenario simulations showed that intercropping allows to sustain productivity and to improve or maintain SOC stock in low or zero fertilizer systems if all residues are returned to the soil. In contrast, for sole‐cropped maize systems, a decline in SOC stocks was simulated unless a minimum of 35 kg N ha−1 yr−1 of fertilizer was applied at full residue return. We conclude that intercropping using legumes alongside sufficient residue return allows for stabilizing long‐term yields while avoiding SOC losses even with low fertilizer N inputs. Overall, our study confirms the potential of intercropping as a sustainable agricultural practice that could significantly contribute to food security in SSA.

A Lake Biogeochemistry Model for Global Methane Emissions: Model Development, Site‐Level Validation, and Global Applicability

AbstractLakes are important sentinels of climate change and may contribute over 30% of natural methane (CH4) emissions; however, no earth system model (ESM) has represented lake CH4 dynamics. To fill this gap, we refined a process‐based lake biogeochemical model to simulate global lake CH4 emissions, including representation of lake bathymetry, oxic methane production (OMP), the effect of water level on ebullition, new non‐linear CH4 oxidation kinetics, and the coupling of sediment carbon pools with in‐lake primary production and terrigenous carbon loadings. We compiled a lake CH4 data set for model validation. The model shows promising performance in capturing the seasonal and inter‐annual variabilities of CH4 emissions at 10 representative lakes for different lake types and the variations in mean annual CH4 emissions among 106 lakes across the globe. The model reproduces the variations of the observed surface CH4 diffusion and ebullition along the gradients of lake latitude, depth, and surface area. The results suggest that OMP could play an important role in surface CH4 diffusion, and its relative importance is higher in less productive and/or deeper lakes. The model performance is improved for capturing CH4 outgassing events in non‐floodplain lakes and the seasonal variability of CH4 ebullition in floodplain lakes by representing the effect of water level on ebullition. The model can be integrated into ESMs to constrain global lake CH4 emissions and climate‐CH4 feedback.

A Global Ocean Opal Ballasting–Silicate Relationship

AbstractOpal and calcium carbonate are thought to regulate the biological pump's transfer of organic carbon to the deep ocean. A global sediment trap database exhibits large regional variations in the organic carbon flux associated with opal flux. These variations are well‐explained by upper ocean silicate concentrations, with high opal ‘ballasting’ in the silicate‐deplete tropical Atlantic Ocean, and low ballasting in the silicate‐rich Southern Ocean. A plausible, testable hypothesis is that opal ballasting varies because diatoms grow thicker frustules where silicate concentrations are higher, carrying less organic carbon per unit opal. The observed pattern does not fully emerge in an advanced ocean biogeochemical model when diatom silicification is represented using a single global parameterization as a function of silicate and iron. Our results suggest a need for improving understanding of currently modeled processes and/or considering additional parameterizations to capture the links between elemental cycles and future biological pump changes.

Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement in Deep Water Formation Regions Under Low and High Emission Pathways

AbstractOcean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) is an ocean‐based Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) method to mitigate climate change. Studies to characterize regional differences in OAE efficiencies and biogeochemical effects are still sparse. As subduction regions play a pivotal role for anthropogenic carbon uptake and centennial storage, we here evaluate OAE efficiencies in the subduction regions of the Southern Ocean, the Northwest Atlantic, and the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region. Using the ocean biogeochemistry model FESOM2.1‐REcoM3, we simulate continuous OAE globally and in the subduction regions under high (SSP3‐7.0) and low (SSP1‐2.6) emission scenarios. The OAE efficiency calculated by two different metrics is higher (by 8%–30%) for SSP3‐7.0 than for SSP1‐2.6 due to a lower buffer factor in a high‐ world. All subduction regions show a CDR potential (0.23–0.31; PgC uptake per Pg alkaline material) consistent with global OAE for both emission scenarios. Calculating the efficiency as the ratio of excess dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to excess alkalinity shows that the Southern Ocean and the Northwest Atlantic are as efficient as the global ocean (0.79–0.85), while the Norwegian‐Barents Sea region has a lower efficiency (0.65–0.75). The subduction regions store a fraction of excess carbon below 1 km that is 1.9 times higher than the global ocean. The excess surface alkalinity and thus uptake and storage follow the mixed‐layer depth seasonality, with the majority of the excess flux occurring in summer at shallow mixed layer depths. This study therefore highlights that subduction regions can be efficient for OAE if optimal deployment strategies are developed.

Patterns and controls of leaf litter nitrogen and phosphorus of broad-leaved tree species across and within the tropics and the extra-tropics

Leaf litter nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as the final products reflecting the foliar nutrient status after resorption, strongly influence forest production and nutrient cycling. However, our nuanced understanding of their general patterns and controls is still lacking, and whether differential regulatory mechanisms exist between climatic zones remains largely incomplete, which introduces substantial uncertainty in the comprehension of net ecosystem productivity and nutrient cycling. Here, we aimed to evaluate patterns of leaf litter N and P concentrations of broad-leaved tree species, and further quantify their controls from climatic, soil physical, soil chemical, and green foliar nutrient factors across and within the tropics and extra-tropics by updating a global dataset comprising 1171 records from 159 studies. We found that tropical tree species exhibited higher leaf litter N concentrations but lower leaf litter P concentrations than extra-tropical tree species. In contrast to previous findings, the effects of climatic and edaphic variables on leaf litter N and P concentrations are more pronounced in the tropics than in the extra-tropics. Different from past bivariate analyses of climate-nutrient relationships for leaf litter, climate exerted more indirect effects on leaf litter N and P concentrations through soil texture, hydrology, nutrient availability, and green foliar nutrients. We also observed direct effects of green foliar N and P concentrations on leaf litter N and P concentrations enhanced from tropical to extra-tropical zones. Overall, this study refines our understanding of differential controls over leaf litter N and P concentrations across climatic zones and highlights the crucial yet often overlooked role of soil physical and chemical properties. These insights further underscore the urgent need to integrate multiple climatic, edaphic, and green foliar nutrient variables into geographically explicit biogeochemical models to improve our understanding of leaf litter-driven forest nutrient cycling in response to future environmental changes for different climatic zones.

Methane dynamics in the Baltic Sea: investigating concentration, flux, and isotopic composition patterns using the coupled physical–biogeochemical model BALTSEM-CH4 v1.0

Abstract. Methane (CH4) cycling in the Baltic Sea is studied through model simulations that incorporate the stable isotopes of CH4 (12C–CH4 and 13C–CH4) in a physical–biogeochemical model. A major uncertainty is that spatial and temporal variations in the sediment source are not well known. Furthermore, the coarse spatial resolution prevents the model from resolving shallow-water near-shore areas for which measurements indicate occurrences of considerably higher CH4 concentrations and emissions compared with the open Baltic Sea. A preliminary CH4 budget for the central Baltic Sea (the Baltic Proper) identifies benthic release as the dominant CH4 source, which is largely balanced by oxidation in the water column and to a smaller degree by outgassing. The contributions from river loads and lateral exchange with adjacent areas are of marginal importance. Simulated total CH4 emissions from the Baltic Proper correspond to an average ∼1.5 mmol CH4 m−2 yr−1, which can be compared to a fitted sediment source of ∼18 mmol CH4 m−2 yr−1. A large-scale approach is used in this study, but the parameterizations and parameters presented here could also be implemented in models of near-shore areas where CH4 concentrations and fluxes are typically substantially larger and more variable. Currently, it is not known how important local shallow-water CH4 hotspots are compared with the open water outgassing in the Baltic Sea.

Arsenic redox disequilibrium in geogenic contaminated groundwater: Bioenergetic insights from organic molecular characterization and gene-informed modeling

Biotransformation of arsenic (As) influences its speciation and mobility, obscuring mechanistic comprehension on spatiotemporal variation of As concentration in geogenic contaminated groundwater. In particular, unresolved processes underlying As redox disequilibrium in comparison to major redox couples discourage practical efforts to rehabilitate the As-contaminated groundwater. Here, quantitative metagenomic sequencing and ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) were jointly applied to reveal the links between vertical distribution of As metabolic gene assemblages and that of free energy density of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in As-contaminated groundwater of Datong Basin. Observed small excess of Gibbs free energy available by DOM relative to that required for As(V)-to-As(III) reduction exerts thermodynamic constraint on metabolism-mediated redox transformation of As. Accordingly, the vertical distribution of dissolved As(V)/As(III) ratio correlated significantly with that of ars+acr3 and arr encoding As(V) reduction and aio encoding As(III) oxidation in the moderately/strongly reducing groundwater. Further gene-informed biogeochemical modeling suggests that a net effect of these kinetics-restricted bidirectional metabolic pathways leads to co-preservation of As(V) and As(III) even at relatively high rates of ars+acr3 encoded As(V) reduction. This study therefore provides new insights into bioenergetic constraints on As hydrobiogeochemical behavior, with implications for other redox-sensitive contaminants in the groundwater systems.

The effects of invertebrates on wood decomposition across the world.

Invertebrates and microorganisms are important but climate-dependent agents of wood decomposition globally. In this meta-analysis, we investigated what drives the invertebrate effect on wood decomposition worldwide. Globally, we found wood decomposition rates were on average approximately 40% higher when invertebrates were present compared to when they were excluded. This effect was most pronounced in the tropics, owing mainly to the activities of termites. The invertebrate effect was stronger for woody debris without bark as well as for that of larger diameter, possibly reflecting bark- and diameter-mediated differences in fungal colonisation or activity rates relative to those of invertebrates. Our meta-analysis shows similar overall invertebrate effect sizes on decomposition of woody debris derived from angiosperms and gymnosperms globally. Our results suggest the existence of critical interactions between microorganism colonisation and the invertebrate contribution to wood decomposition. To improve biogeochemical models, a better quantification of invertebrate contributions to wood decomposition is needed.

Drivers of microbial carbon biomass variability in two oceanic regions of the Gulf of Mexico

The microbial plankton community is an integral part of the pelagic ecosystem. It hosts essential functional groups that play a vital role in organic carbon production, release, uptake, and degradation within open-ocean ecosystems. Given its significance, carbon biomass estimates are urgently needed, especially in oligotrophic regions, to provide and enhance our knowledge of biogenic carbon pools. They also aid in validating biogeochemical models that characterize the functioning of these extensive marine ecosystems within the global carbon cycle. This study addresses the temporal variability of microbial community biomass in two oceanic zones: the west-central (Perdido) and southern (Coatzacoalcos) areas of the Gulf of Mexico. During three seasonally contrasting periods (nortes, rainy, and dry seasons), seawater samples were collected from the euphotic zone in both regions to estimate the carbon biomass of different pico- (<2–3 µm), nano-, and microplankton groups (>3–200 µm). Carbon biomass assessments for the microbial groups were based on their abundance and carbon conversion factors. Overall, we found a significant contribution of pico-prokaryotic components (heterotrophic bacteria, Prochloroccocus, and Synechoccocus) to the total microbial carbon stock of the euphotic zone (84–89 % global estimates). The finding suggests these microorganisms are key functional groups that drive carbon production and fate in the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem. Pico-cyanobacteria, especially Prochloroccocus, were the dominant primary producers (68–82 % total autotrophic carbon), mainly in the upper layer of the oligotrophic euphotic zone. This vertical pattern implies that the deep chlorophyll-a maximum (DCM) depth level was unrelated to a net increase in phytoplankton biomass in the three study periods. The distribution of microbial carbon biomass exhibited striking differences associated with winter mixing (the nortes season), high river discharge accompanied by cross-shelf transport (the rainy season), and the dynamics of mesoscale structures. Ecological aspects, such as the habitat preference of the organisms and the seasonal complementary development of mixotrophic and heterotrophic grazers and their prey, were also essential drivers in regulating the microbial carbon pool of both oceanic regions. The microbial carbon assessments conducted in this study contribute to identifying and quantifying key planktonic functional groups involved in the biogeochemical carbon cycle in the Gulf of Mexico open-ocean ecosystem.

Using Shortened Spin‐Ups to Speed Up Ocean Biogeochemical Model Optimization

AbstractThe performance of global ocean biogeochemical models can be quantified as the misfit between modeled tracer distributions and observations, which is sought to be minimized during parameter optimization. These models are computationally expensive due to the long spin‐up time required to reach equilibrium, and therefore optimization is often laborious. To reduce the required computational time, we investigate whether optimization of a biogeochemical model with shorter spin‐ups provides the same optimized parameters as one with a full‐length, equilibrated spin‐up over several millennia. We use the global ocean biogeochemical model MOPS with a range of lengths of model spin‐up and calibrate the model against synthetic observations derived from previous model runs using a derivative‐free optimization algorithm (DFO‐LS). When initiating the biogeochemical model with tracer distributions that differ from the synthetic observations used for calibration, a minimum spin‐up length of 2,000 years was required for successful optimization due to certain parameters which influence the transport of matter from the surface to the deeper ocean, where timescales are longer. However, preliminary results indicate that successful optimization may occur with an even shorter spin‐up by a judicious choice of initial condition, here the synthetic observations used for calibration, suggesting a fruitful avenue for future research.

Effects of Mesozooplankton Growth and Reproduction on Plankton and Organic Carbon Dynamics in a Marine Biogeochemical Model

AbstractMarine mesozooplankton play an important role for marine ecosystem functioning and global biogeochemical cycles. Their size structure, varying spatially and temporally, heavily impacts biogeochemical processes and ecosystem services. Mesozooplankton exhibit size changes throughout their life cycle, affecting metabolic rates and functional traits. Despite this variability, many models oversimplify mesozooplankton as a single, unchanging size class, potentially biasing carbon flux estimates. Here, we include mesozooplankton ontogenetic growth and reproduction into a 3‐dimensional global ocean biogeochemical model, PISCES‐MOG, and investigate the subsequent effects on simulated mesozooplankton phenology, plankton distribution, and organic carbon export. Utilizing an ensemble of statistical predictive models calibrated with a global set of observations, we generated monthly climatologies of mesozooplankton biomass to evaluate the simulations of PISCES‐MOG. Our analyses reveal that the model and observation‐based biomass distributions are consistent ( = 0.40, total epipelagic biomass: 137 TgC from observations vs. 232 TgC in the model), with similar seasonality (later bloom as latitude increases poleward). Including ontogenetic growth in the model induced cohort dynamics and variable seasonal dynamics across mesozooplankton size classes and altered the relative contribution of carbon cycling pathways. Younger and smaller mesozooplankton transitioned to microzooplankton in PISCES‐MOG, resulting in a change in particle size distribution, characterized by a decrease in large particulate organic carbon (POC) and an increase in small POC generation. Consequently, carbon export from the surface was reduced by 10%. This study underscores the importance of accounting for ontogenetic growth and reproduction in models, highlighting the interconnectedness between mesozooplankton size, phenology, and their effects on marine carbon cycling.

Wave‐Coupled Effects on Oceanic Biogeochemistry: Insights From a Global Ocean Biogeochemical Model in the Southern Ocean

AbstractOceanic biogeochemistry plays a pivotal role in regulating Earth's climate system by governing the cycling of key elements such as carbon, oxygen, and nutrients. Various metocean processes including wind, tides, currents, waves, and eddies significantly influence the dynamics of this system. In particular, ocean surface waves contribute to this intricate interplay by facilitating the exchange of heat, gas, and momentum between the atmosphere and the ocean. Although wave‐coupled effects are substantial, studies on their impacts on oceanic biogeochemistry, particularly on phytoplankton abundance are missing in present‐day research. Additionally, wave‐coupled effects cannot be disregarded in regions like the Southern Ocean (SO), where wind and waves activities are prominent. Addressing this gap, we incorporated a parameterization of surface wave mixing into a global ocean biogeochemical model to investigate its effects on upper ocean and biogeochemical parameters. Our results show that surface wave mixing has significant impacts on sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), and nutrient distribution—key factors that influence phytoplankton growth. Additionally, we observed significant improvements in model biases against the observations. During austral summer, additional mixing from surface waves can significantly lower SST by 0.5°C, deepen MLD by 13 m, and enhance Chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) concentration, an index of phytoplankton population, by 8% in the SO. This observed increase in Chl‐a concentration is mainly driven by enhanced dissolved iron levels resulting from wave‐induced mixing. Our findings underscore the significance of incorporating surface wave mixing in ocean biogeochemistry studies, an aspect that is currently overlooked.

Solutions and insights for agricultural monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) from three consecutive issuances of soil carbon credits

Regenerative agricultural practice adoption on conventionally managed fields has gained momentum as a climate mitigation strategy, given the ability of these practices to sequester carbon or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the geospatial and temporal variability of the impact of specific practices, such as cover cropping or no-till, pose challenges for scalable quantification of emissions reduction and deploying incentives to drive increased adoption. To quantify impact while accounting for variability and uncertainty at scale, Indigo Ag created a monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) pipeline to produce agricultural soil carbon credits produced at large scales (hundreds of thousands of hectares). The pipeline ingests field data from enrolled farmers, checks data quality, uses hybrid soil sampling and biogeochemical modeling to produce estimates of emissions reduction and uncertainty, and then applies deductions based on calculated uncertainty and leakage to quantify total project-wide carbon credits and monitor for durability of carbon. The implementation of a carbon project (CAR1459) from 2018 to 2022 on 553,743 ha of U.S. cropland utilizing the pipeline is estimated to have reduced emissions by 398,408.5 tCO2e, amounting to 296,662 tCO2e of soil carbon credits after uncertainty deductions. This paper explores the effect sizes associated with specific regenerative practice changes across the project domain. Cover cropping consistently resulted in a net positive climate impact and reduced emissions by 1.29 tCO2e per hectare per year, on average. Introduction of no-till was more common in the project, but it had a lower average emissions reduction of 0.38 tCO2e per hectare per year. Effect sizes for no-till vary spatiotemporally and are typically low in the first several years after adoption but increase in subsequent years. Agricultural carbon programs that capture and incentivize the nuance of outcomes of practices rather than the implementation of practices, can promote adoption of the right management practice to be deployed on the right field for maximum environmental benefit.

Solid Earth forcing of Mesozoic oceanic anoxic events

Oceanic anoxic events are geologically abrupt phases of extreme oxygen depletion in the oceans that disrupted marine ecosystems and brought about evolutionary turnover. Typically lasting ~1.5 million years, these events occurred frequently during the Mesozoic era, from about 183 to 85 million years ago, an interval associated with continental breakup and widespread large igneous province volcanism. One hypothesis suggests that anoxic events resulted from enhanced chemical weathering of Earth’s surface in a greenhouse world shaped by high volcanic carbon outgassing. Here we test this hypothesis using a combination of plate reconstructions, tectonic–geochemical analysis and global biogeochemical modelling. We show that enhanced weathering of mafic lithologies during continental breakup and nascent seafloor spreading can plausibly drive a succession of anoxic events. Weathering pulses collectively gave rise to substantial releases of the nutrient phosphorus to the oceans, stimulating biological primary production. This, in turn, enhanced organic carbon burial and caused widespread ocean deoxygenation on a scale sufficient to drive recurrent anoxia. This model complements volcanic outgassing-centred hypotheses for triggering these events by demonstrating well-quantified basaltic sources of phosphorus release during periods of intense weathering related to climate warmth. Our study highlights a close coupling between the solid Earth and biosphere during continental reorganization.

Stochastic effects on plankton dynamics: Insights from a realistic 0-dimensional marine biogeochemical model

Marine ecosystems exist in a noisy and uncertain environment, not governed by deterministic laws. The development of ecological communities is significantly influenced by variability, and the interaction between nonlinearity and stochastic processes can lead to phenomena that deterministic models cannot explain. Plankton, forming the base of the marine food web, are highly affected by stochastic fluctuations due to their short reproductive timescales. Investigating the effects of noise on plankton growth is essential for accurately describing and predicting marine health. We present a realistic biogeochemical model where multiplicative white noise represents environmental stochasticity affecting plankton. The model suggests ergodic properties in the presence of stochastic fluctuations, with temporal and ensemble distributions being coherent. Analytical and numerical analyses reveal that, given sufficiently low noise intensity, dynamics near equilibrium resemble an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck additive process. With higher noise intensities, resonance occurs, particularly when endogenous dynamics are periodic. The results indicate that low noise intensity can positively influence plankton persistence with an higher number of species coexisting, while higher noise intensity can establish a new equilibrium in the system.

Estimates of carbon sequestration potential in an expanding Arctic fjord (Hornsund, Svalbard) affected by dark plumes of glacial meltwater

Abstract. In polar regions, glaciers are retreating onto land, gradually widening ice-free coastal waters, which are known to act as new sinks of atmospheric carbon. However, the increasing delivery of inorganic suspended particulate matter (iSPM) with meltwater might significantly impact their capacity to contribute to carbon sequestration. Here, we present an analysis of satellite, meteorological, and SPM data as well as results of a coupled physical–biogeochemical model (1D GOTM-ECOSMO-E2E-Polar) with a newly implemented iSPM group to show the impact of iSPM on the ecosystem dynamics in a warming polar fjord (Hornsund, European Arctic) with numerous shallow-grounded marine-terminating glaciers. Our results indicate that with a longer melt season (9 d per decade, 1979–2022), the loss of sea ice cover (44 d per decade, 1982–2021) and the formation of new marine habitats after the retreat of marine-terminating glaciers (around 100 km2 in 1976–2022, a 38 % increase in the total area), glacial meltwater has transported increasing loads of iSPM from land (3.7 g m−3 per decade, reconstructed for 1979–2022). The simulated light limitation induced by the iSPM input delayed and decreased the peaks in phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthos. The newly ice-free areas still markedly contributed to plankton primary and secondary production and carbon burial in sediments (5.1, 2.0, and 0.9 Gg C yr−1, respectively, on average for 2005–2009 in the iSPM scenario). However, these values would have been 5.0, 2.1, and 0.1 Gg C yr−1 higher, respectively, without the iSPM input. Since carbon burial was the least affected by iSPM (a decrease of around 16 %, in comparison to 50 % for plankton primary and secondary production), the impact of marine ice loss and enhanced land–ocean connectivity should be investigated further in the context of carbon fluxes in expanding polar fjords.

Warming-Induced Vegetation Greening May Aggravate Soil Mercury Levels Worldwide.

Mercury, a neurotoxic substance, circulates globally, significantly stored in soils through atmospheric deposition and plant decay. Despite being deposited, mercury can be remobilized and released into the atmosphere and water, enhancing its global cycle. Recent research suggests that climate warming may amplify the remobilization of soil mercury, facilitating its incorporation into food webs that humans exploit. However, the potential geospatial feedback of soil mercury levels in response to warming remains unclear. By leveraging up-to-date soil measurements and observation-driven models, we determined the amount of mercury stored in global 0-100 cm soils to be 4.3 Tg (interquartile range: 2.5-6.3 Tg). Furthermore, our analysis indicates that warming likely aggravates global soil mercury levels, particularly in many temperate areas in East Asia, North Europe, and North America (>20 ng g-1 increase by 2100) due to warming-induced vegetation greening. Critically, observation-driven models raise the possibility that implementing ambitious mercury-emission-control schemes alone may be insufficient to counterbalance the positive feedback of soil mercury concentration, while process-based biogeochemical modeling demonstrates consistent patterns that reinforce this concern. These findings hold broad implications; for example, such feedback may catalyze mercury remobilization in land-ocean continuums and exacerbate human risks, stressing the necessity for continued reductions in greenhouse gas and mercury emissions.