Bioclimatic Models Research Articles

Potential Geographic Distribution of Palmer Amaranth under Current and Future Climates

Core Ideas CLIMEX model projections match known Palmer amaranth distribution. Sub‐Sahara Africa and Australia are at risk for Palmer amaranth establishment. Future climate scenarios indicate the potential for poleward range expansion. Herbicide‐resistant weeds are increasingly becoming a major challenge for agricultural production worldwide. Palmer amaranth [Amaranthus palmeri (S.) Wats.] is an invasive annual forb that has recently emerged as one of the most widespread and severe agronomic weeds in the United States, due in part to its facility for evolving herbicide resistance. It has invaded several parts of the world, including key agricultural production regions in South America. Climate change will likely exacerbate the challenges of managing this species. To assess this, we developed a process‐oriented bioclimatic niche model of Palmer amaranth to examine its potential global distribution under current conditions and future climate scenarios. The model agreed well with all credible current distribution data. Projected future increases in temperatures will expand potential Palmer amaranth range northward into portions of Canada and Europe. Model projections under current and future climates highlight several agricultural production regions of increasing and emerging risk from this weed.

Bio‐ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling

AbstractMotivationThe availability of user‐friendly, high‐resolution global environmental datasets is crucial for bioclimatic modelling. For terrestrial environments, WorldClim has served this purpose since 2005, but equivalent marine data only became available in 2012, with pioneer initiatives like Bio‐ORACLE providing data layers for several ecologically relevant variables. Currently, the available marine data packages have not yet been updated to the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions nor to present times, and are mostly restricted to the top surface layer of the oceans, precluding the modelling of a large fraction of the benthic diversity that inhabits deeper habitats. To address this gap, we present a significant update of Bio‐ORACLE for new future climate scenarios, present‐day conditions and benthic layers (near sea bottom). The reliability of data layers was assessed using a cross‐validation framework against in situ quality‐controlled data. This test showed a generally good agreement between our data layers and the global climatic patterns. We also provide a package of functions in the R software environment (sdmpredictors) to facilitate listing, extraction and management of data layers and allow easy integration with the available pipelines for bioclimatic modelling.Main types of variable containedSurface and benthic layers for water temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll, sea ice, current velocity, phytoplankton, primary productivity, iron and light at bottom.Spatial location and grainGlobal at 5 arcmin (c. 0.08° or 9.2 km at the equator).Time period and grainPresent (2000–2014) and future (2040–2050 and 2090–2100) environmental conditions based on monthly averages.Major taxa and level of measurementMarine biodiversity associated with sea surface and epibenthic habitats.Software formatASCII and TIFF grid formats for geographical information systems and a package of functions developed for R software.

Soil water storage appears to compensate for climatic aridity at the xeric margin of European tree species distribution

Based on macroecological data, we test the hypothesis whether European tree species of temperate and boreal distribution maintain their water and nutrient supply in the more arid southern margin of their distribution range by shifting to more fertile soils with higher water storage than in their humid core distribution range (cf. soil compensatory effects). To answer this question, we gathered a large dataset with more than 200,000 plots that we related to summer aridity (SA), derived from WorldClim data, as well as soil available water capacity (AWC) and soil nutrient status, derived from the European soil database. The soil compensatory effects on tree species distribution were tested through generalized additive models. The hypothesis of soil compensatory effects on tree species distribution under limiting aridity was supported in terms of statistical significance and plausibility. Compared to a bioclimatic baseline model, inclusion of soil variables systematically improved the models’ goodness of fit. However, the relevance measured as the gain in predictive performance was small, with largest improvements for P. sylvestris, Q. petraea and A. alba. All studied species, except P. sylvestris, preferred high AWC under high SA. For F. sylvatica, P. abies and Q. petraea, the compensatory effect of soil AWC under high SA was even more pronounced on acidic soils. Soil compensatory effects might have decisive implications for tree species redistribution and forest management strategies under anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, soil compensatory effects deserve more intensive investigation, ideally, in studies combining different spatial scales to reduce the uncertainty associated with the precision of soil information.

Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900.

Accurate estimates of historical forest extent and associated deforestation rates are crucial for quantifying tropical carbon cycles and formulating conservation policy. In Africa, data-driven estimates of historical closed-canopy forest extent and deforestation at the continental scale are lacking, and existing modelled estimates diverge substantially. Here, we synthesize available palaeo-proxies and historical maps to reconstruct forest extent in tropical Africa around1900, when European colonization accelerated markedly, and compare these historical estimates with modern forest extent to estimate deforestation. We find that forests were less extensive in 1900 than bioclimatic models predict. Resultantly, across tropical Africa, ~ 21.7% of forests have been deforested, yielding substantially slower deforestation than previous estimates (35-55%). However, deforestation was heterogeneous: West and East African forests have undergone almost complete decline (~ 83.3 and 93.0%, respectively), while Central African forests have expanded at the expense of savannahs (~ 1.4% net forest expansion, with ~ 135,270 km2 of savannahs encroached). These results suggest that climate alone does not determine savannah and forest distributions and that many savannahs hitherto considered to be degraded forests are instead relatively old. These data-driven reconstructions of historical biome distributions will inform tropical carbon cycle estimates, carbon mitigation initiatives and conservation planning in both forest and savannah systems.

Low interannual precipitation has a greater negative effect than seedling herbivory on the population dynamics of a short-lived shrub, Schiedea obovata.

Climate projections forecast more extreme interannual climate variability over time, with an increase in the severity and duration of extreme drought and rainfall events. Based on bioclimatic envelope models, it is projected that changing precipitation patterns will drastically alter the spatial distributions and density of plants and be a primary driver of biodiversity loss. However, many other underlying mechanisms can impact plant vital rates (i.e., survival, growth, and reproduction) and population dynamics. In this study, we developed a size‐dependent integral projection model (IPM) to evaluate how interannual precipitation and mollusk herbivory influence the dynamics of a Hawaii endemic short‐lived shrub, Schiedea obovata (Caryophyllaceae). Assessing how wet season precipitation effects population dynamics it critical, as it is the timeframe when most of the foliar growth occurs, plants flower and fruit, and seedlings establish. Temporal variation in wet season precipitation had a greater effect than mollusk herbivory on S. obovata population growth rate λ, and the impact of interannual precipitation on vital rates shifted across plant ontogeny. Furthermore, wet season precipitation influenced multiple vital rates in contrasting ways and the effect of precipitation on the survival of larger vegetative and reproductively mature individuals contributed the most to variation in the population growth rate. Among all combination of wet season precipitation and herbivory intensities, the only scenario that led to a growing population was when high wet precipitation was associated with low herbivory. Our study highlights the importance of evaluating how abiotic factors and plant–consumer interactions influence an organism across its life cycle to fully understand the underpinning mechanisms that structure its spatial and temporal distribution and abundance. Our results also illustrate that for short‐lived species, like S. obovata, seedling herbivory can have less of an effect on the dynamics of plant populations than decreased interannual precipitation.

First assessment of naturalised Rubus ellipticus Sm. populations in South Africa - A potential invasion risk?

The first naturalised Rubus ellipticus populations are described from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Surveys were undertaken at five sites in Hillcrest, during which site specific distribution data were collected. Plant density estimates were calculated by dividing the number of plants per polygon area at each site. Basic physiological data such as plant height and number of stems were recorded at three of these sites (n=399).We recorded 422 plants in total, and site-specific plant densities were below 30%. Only 6 % of the population sampled had flowers, and the shortest flowering individual measured 0.9m. The tallest individual recorded was 3.5m. Distribution data from the largest population (n=329) were mapped, and results showed that some seedlings occurred more than 10m away from the nearest adult, which could be attributed to dispersal of the seeds by birds, indicating a minimal level of spread. The initial weed risk assessment score of 21 indicates a high potential invasion risk to South Africa, and the bioclimatic modelling map highlighted 2% of the country as being highly suitable climatically for the species. Our study indicates that R. ellipticus can be considered at an early stage of invasion in South Africa (C3 classification), and we support its current legal categorisation as a category 1a plant invader and eradication-target species. We propose that implementation of an eradication programme would entail removal of all existing populations, monitoring and evaluation of clearing efforts, rapid response to new populations detected, and targeted awareness campaigns and surveys in high risk areas identified in the bioclimatic modelling map.

Rapid prioritization of alien plants for eradication based on climatic suitability and eradication feasibility

AbstractIdentifying which introduced species have the greatest potential for establishment, spread and impact is critical for prioritizing pre‐ and post‐border control. Using species distribution modelling and existing species locations we assessed the establishment risk based on the climatic suitability areas of 25 plant species listed as eradication targets under South African regulations. To improve confidence, three bioclimatic models were used to predict the potential distribution of each species. This information was combined with the number of localities and the “eradication feasibility syndromes” in a scoring‐categorical system to rank the species. Three management groups were identified. Group “A” includes species with medium‐high establishment risk and higher likelihood to be eradicated, these species should be a priority for eradication. Group “B” includes species with a medium‐low establishment risk but given the low number of known population and the species characteristics, eradication is likely to be feasible. Finally species in group “C” scored a medium‐high establishment risk but the eradication would be difficult due to the high number of known localities. This ranking provides a rapid method to prioritize the management towards the eradication of new potential invasive plant species in the country combining the establishment risk, known number of localities and the inferred eradication success.

Invasive American bullfrogs and African Clawed Frogs in South America: High Suitability of Occurrence in Biodiversity Hotspots.

Fabiana G. Barbosa, Camila Both, and Miguel B. Araújo (2017) Invasion of protected areas by non-native species is currently one of the main threats to global biodiversity. Using an ensemble of bioclimatic envelope models we quantify the degree of exposure of South American protected areas to invasion by two invasive amphibian species. We focus on protected areas that coincide with global biodiversity hotspots. The species modeled, Lithobates catesbeianus and Xenopus laevis, have been reported to threaten local faunas in several non-native areas that they invaded, including areas in Asia, Europe, North America, and South America. We show that 87.5% of the protected areas within the Atlantic Forest may be most at risk of invasion by L. catesbeianus and X. laevis under current climate conditions, followed by areas in the Cerrado (51.7), Tropical Andes (37.6%), Tumbes-Choco-Magdalena (22.5%), and Chilean Winter Rainfall and Valdivian Forests (20.5%). Conservation plans for these regions should, therefore, consider latent threats from multiple sources including invasion by highly competitive non-native species such as the ones modeled in our study.

Genetic diversity of the myrtle rust pathogen (Austropuccinia psidii) in the Americas and Hawaii: Global implications for invasive threat assessments

SummarySince the myrtle rust pathogen (Austropuccinia psidii) was first reported (as Puccinia psidii) in Brazil on guava (Psidium guajava) in 1884, it has been found infecting diverse myrtaceous species. Because A. psidii has recently spread rapidly worldwide with an extensive host range, genetic and genotypic diversities were evaluated within and among A. psidii populations in its putative native range and other areas of myrtle rust emergence in the Americas and Hawaii. Microsatellite markers revealed several unique multilocus genotypes (MLGs), which grouped isolates into nine distinct genetic clusters [C1–C9 comprising C1: from diverse hosts from Costa Rica, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and USA‐Hawaii, and USA‐California; C2: from eucalypts (Eucalyptus spp.) in Brazil/Uruguay and rose apple (Syzygium jambos) in Brazil; C3: from eucalypts in Brazil; C4: from diverse hosts in USA‐Florida; C5: from Java plum (Syzygium cumini) in Brazil; C6: from guava and Brazilian guava (Psidium guineense) in Brazil; C7: from pitanga (Eugenia uniflora) in Brazil; C8: from allspice (Pimenta dioica) in Jamaica and sweet flower (Myrrhinium atropurpureum) in Uruguay; C9: from jabuticaba (Myrciaria cauliflora) in Brazil]. The C1 cluster, which included a single MLG infecting diverse host in many geographic regions, and the closely related C4 cluster are considered as a “Pandemic biotype,” associated with myrtle rust emergence in Central America, the Caribbean, USA‐Florida, USA‐Hawaii, Australia, China‐Hainan, New Caledonia, Indonesia and Colombia. Based on 19 bioclimatic variables and documented occurrences of A. psidii contrasted with reduced sets of specific genetic clusters (subnetworks, considered as biotypes), maximum entropy bioclimatic modelling was used to predict geographic locations with suitable climate for A. psidii which are at risk from invasion. The genetic diversity of A. psidii throughout the Americas and Hawaii demonstrates the importance of recognizing biotypes when assessing the invasive threats posed by A. psidii around the globe.

Incorporating climate change into recovery planning for threatened vertebrate species in southwestern Australia

Recovery plans are the main tool used for restoration of threatened species in Australia, and identification of key threatening processes is an important feature of them. The aim of this study was to identify how climate change can be incorporated into the recovery planning process using a case study of threatened vertebrates in a global biodiversity hotspot, southwestern Australia. Analysis of 79 recovery planning documents for threatened vertebrate species in the region found that prior to the year 2004, climate change was not included as a threatening process. Post 2004, 32 of 54 (59.3%) documents included climate change as a threatening process. Using bioclimatic modelling, 43 of these species were ranked in terms of their potential exposure to climate change, and a gradient of management intervention aimed at mitigating their exposure to climate change was proposed. This intervention gradient ranged from active management actions aimed at species potentially at risk of extinction due to climate change, through to preservation of habitat in species predicted to lose between 0 and 25% of their current population size. It was proposed that as a priority, the recovery documentation of the 20 species predicted to be most at risk and thus needing a high level of management intervention should identify climate change as a key threatening process, and that more comprehensive analyses of climate change vulnerability be undertaken for these species. Such an approach aimed at prioritising climate change mitigation in threatened species would be useful for other regions where it has been predicted that climate change could have a negative impact on biodiversity.

Quantitative models of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) ticks: historical review and synthesis

AbstractSeveral tick species, in what is now known as the subgenus Boophilus in the genus Rhipicephalus, are economically important ectoparasites of livestock and other ungulates; as vectors of pathogens that kill cattle, they remain among the most studied ticks in the world. Researchers have developed quantitative computer models of Rhipicephalus ticks since the early 1970s to study complex biological and ecological relationships that influence management or eradication of ticks and tick‐borne diseases. We review the 45‐yr history of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) models, which were developed and applied first in Australia, 10 yr later in North and South America, then soon after in Africa. Models progressed from analytical models of a portion of tick life cycles, to simulation models of complete life cycles or ecoclimatic indices, to the current emphasis on GIS‐based bioclimatic envelope models estimated from remotely sensed data and tick presence records. Earlier models were used primarily to predict effects of management techniques, such as use of sterile hybrid ticks, pasture rotation, acaricides, vaccines, and resistant cattle, while more recent models have been used to predict the potential for range expansion, especially due to global climate change and wildlife hosts, as well as in the face of competition with other tick species. We summarize characteristics of these models and compare those of population dynamics and bioclimatic envelope models. We discuss the past and present utility of these models and provide a perspective on future Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) modeling efforts.

Bioclimatic approach to assessing the potential impact of climate change on two flea beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species in Canada

AbstractBoth the striped flea beetle, Phyllotreta striolata (Fabricius), and crucifer flea beetle, Phyllotreta cruciferae (Goeze) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), are invasive alien species to North America. In western Canada, they are the most significant insect pests of cruciferous (Brassicaceae) crops. Climate is the one of the most dominant factors regulating the geographic distribution and population density of most insect species. Recent bioclimatic simulation models of the two flea beetle species fostered a better understanding of how the two species responded to selected climate variables. They demonstrated that selected climate variables increased population densities and geographic range of the two species. General circulation model inputs were applied in this study to assess the impact of a changing climate on the response of P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations. Model output, using the climate change scenarios, predicted that both P. cruciferae and P. striolata populations will shift north in future climates and the degree of geographic overlap between these two species will be greater than for current climate. This suggests that the two species could potentially cause economic losses over an expanded area in the future.

Threats to North American forests from southern pine beetle with warming winters.

In coming decades, warmer winters are likely to ease range constraints on many cold-limited forest insects1-5. Recent unprecedented expansion of the southern pine beetle (SPB, Dendroctonus frontalis) into New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut in concert with warming annual temperature minima highlights the risk that this insect pest poses to the pine forests of the northern United States and Canada under continued climate change6. Here we present projections of northward expansion in SPB-suitable climates using a statistical bioclimatic range modeling approach and current-generation general circulation model (GCM) output under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Our results show that by the middle of the 21st century, the climate is likely to be suitable for SPB expansion into vast areas of previously unaffected forests throughout the northeastern United States and into southeastern Canada. This scenario would pose a significant economic and ecological risk to the affected regions, including disruption of local ecosystem services7, shifts in forest structure8, and threats to native biodiversity9.

Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 73:125-133 (2017) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01459 Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway Stein Rune Karlsen1,*, Hans Tømmervik2, Bernt Johansen1, Jan Åge Riseth1 1Norut Northern Research Institute, PO Box 6434, 9294 Tromsø, Norway 2Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM - High North Centre for Climate and the Environment, PO Box 6606 Langnes, 9296 Tromsø, Norway *Corresponding author: stein.rune.karlsen@norut.no‑Advance View was available online May 18, 2017 ABSTRACT: Finnmarksvidda is Norway’s largest mountain plateau, located in the Arctic/alpine-boreal transition area. The area is also a central winter grazing area for the reindeer herds of the indigenous Sámi people. This study develops a bioclimatic-based model to simulate future potential vegetation, with a focus on forest types. The model utilizes a bioclimatic study in the region, where vegetation types have been grouped according to minimum summer temperature demands. This is then used as a base for modelling of future vegetation. Due to the flat landscape of Finnmarksvidda, the model shows that a 1°C increase in summer temperatures will potentially lead to an increase of forested areas by 4485 km2, which is a 70% increase from the current 6900 km2 to a simulated 11706 km2. This in turn will lead to a reduction of Arctic-alpine heaths from 4440 km2 today to potentially only 670 km2. Such changes will have consequences for the reindeer grazing system, as the predicted changes will lead to a decrease in the vegetation types that have high winter grazing accessibility for reindeer, from 2386 km2 today to potentially only 377 km2. On the other hand, vegetation types with medium accessibility will experience an increase, from 2857 to 3366 km2. KEY WORDS: Climate warming · Bioclimatic model · Temperature driver · Future forest · Treeline · Reindeer herding Full text in pdf format PreviousNextCite this article as: Karlsen SR, Tømmervik H, Johansen B, Riseth JÅ (2017) Future forest distribution on Finnmarksvidda, North Norway. Clim Res 73:125-133. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01459 Export citation RSS - Facebook - Tweet - linkedIn Cited by Published in CR Vol. 73, No. 1-2. Online publication date: August 21, 2017 Print ISSN: 0936-577X; Online ISSN: 1616-1572 Copyright © 2017 Inter-Research.

Climate and landscape in Italy during Late Epigravettian. The Late Glacial small mammal sequence of Riparo Tagliente (Stallavena di Grezzana, Verona, Italy)

The site of Riparo Tagliente (north-eastern Italy) contains one of the main Upper Pleistocene archaeological sequences of south-western Europe. It also represents a key site for the study of human adaptation to Late Glacial environmental changes in the southern Alpine area. These climatic and environmental conditions are here reconstructed based on small mammal assemblages, using the Bioclimatic model and Habitat Weighting methods. Climate proxies indicate a rise in temperature during the transition between HE1 and the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, while the landscape surrounding the shelter was still dominated by open grasslands. By comparing the data obtained from Riparo Tagliente with other coeval small mammal faunas from the Italian Peninsula and Europe we contribute to the reconstruction of the processes of faunal renewal registered during the Late Glacial across the continent and of the climatic and environmental context in which the Late Epigravettian hunter-gatherer groups lived.

Innovative energy and environmental standards for architecture

The article, in order to identify new models according to which to conceive the future transformation and construction of the environment, starts from the description of current energy and environmental models, beginning with those defined by Reyner Banham on End of the 1960s (conservative, selective, regenerative, bioclimatic model) to identify the characteristics of a new energy model consistent with the current energy-environmental efficiency instances of buildings.

Environmental and climatic reconstruction of MIS 3 in northwestern Europe using the small-mammal assemblage from Caverne Marie-Jeanne (Hastière-Lavaux, Belgium)

Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3, ca. 60–30ka) is characterized by dynamic alternations of forest expansion with semi-arid area expansion in accordance with the warming and cooling, respectively, of the sea-surface temperatures in Northern Europe. It was in this context of rapid fluctuations that the terrestrial sequence of Caverne Marie-Jeanne (Hastière-Lavaux, Belgium) in northwestern Europe was formed. The habitat weighting method and the bioclimatic model, as well as the Simpson diversity index, are applied to the small-mammal assemblage of Caverne Marie-Jeanne in order to reconstruct the environmental and climatic fluctuations that are reflected in the MIS 3 sequence of the cave. Revision of the small-mammal fossil material deposited in the collections of the Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences (RBINS, Brussels, Belgium) shows that the lower layers (6 to 4) of the cave, pertaining to MIS 3 (ca. 50–40ka), underwent cold, dry environmental and climatic conditions for these layers. This is indicated by temperatures lower than at present and precipitation slightly higher than at present, together with an environment dominated by open woodland formations and open dry meadows. Our results are consistent with the available chronological, large-mammal, herpetofaunal and mollusc datasets for this lower part of the sequence. They are also consistent with regional loess studies in Belgium and with previous work performed on small mammals from MIS 3 in Belgium and elsewhere in Europe.

Phylogeography of a migratory songbird across its Canadian breeding range: Implications for conservation units.

The objectives of this study were to describe and evaluate potential drivers of genetic structure in Canadian breeding populations of the Ovenbird, Seiurus aurocapilla. We performed genetic analyses on feather samples of individuals from six study sites using nuclear microsatellites. We also assessed species identity and population genetic structure of quill mites (Acariformes, Syringophilidae). For male Ovenbirds breeding in three study sites, we collected light‐level geolocator data to document migratory paths and identify the wintering grounds. We also generated paleohindcast projections from bioclimatic models of Ovenbird distribution to identify potential refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21,000 years before present) as a factor explaining population genetic structure. Birds breeding in the Cypress Hills (Alberta/Saskatchewan) may be considered a distinct genetic unit, but there was no evidence for genetic differentiation among any other populations. We found relatively strong migratory connectivity in both western and eastern populations, but some evidence of mixing among populations on the wintering grounds. There was also little genetic variation among syringophilid mites from the different Ovenbird populations. These results are consistent with paleohindcast distribution predictions derived from two different global climate models indicating a continuous single LGM refugium, with the possibility of two refugia. Our results suggest that Ovenbird populations breeding in boreal and hemiboreal regions are panmictic, whereas the population breeding in Cypress Hills should be considered a distinct management unit.

Bioclimatic analyses for the distributions ofOnthophagus nuchicornis,Onthophagus taurus, andDigitonthophagus gazella(Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) in North America

AbstractOnthophagus nuchicornis(Linnaeus),Onthophagus taurus(Schreber), andDigitonthophagus gazella(Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae: Scarabaeinae: Onthophagini) are species of dung beetles that have been used in relocation programmes to accelerate the degradation of cattle dung on pastures. Exotic in North America, all three species have expanded their distributions since their introduction onto the continent. Here we report development of CLIMEX®bioclimatic models using data collected before 2011 that predict the eventual North American distributions of these species. Data collected after 2010 is used to validate these models. Model outputs identify large regions of the central United States of America suitable for establishment ofO. nuchicornisandO. tauruswhere these species have not been reported. These results indicate that the latter two species may already be present in these regions and undetected, that they have yet to expand into these regions, and (or) that factors restricting migration or dispersal prevent these species from occupying these areas. Model outputs forD. gazellasuggest that the species has largely reached its predicted maximum distribution. These models can be used to aid the success of future relocation programmes elsewhere in the world and (or) to predict regions where these species are likely to spread without human intervention.

Potential geographic distribution niche modeling based on bioclimatic variables of three species of Temnomastax Rehn and Rehn, 1942 (Orthoptera: Eumastacidae)

ABSTRACTPredictive modeling of geographic distribution based on ecological niche has become an important tool in ecology. It uses previous information about distribution of species and environmental variations associated with this distribution, restricting to the models the closest prediction of the ecological niche. The eumastacid grasshoppers are distributed mainly in the Neotropical region, and Temnomastacinae is the subfamily with the largest geographic distribution. Little is known about the biology of Eumastacidae, the only data available reporting the association between some grasshopper species and plants of several families. In the Cerrado only Temnomastax is recorded, which has a wide distribution in the central region of Brazil. The aim of this work was to determine the potential geographic distribution of three species of Temnomastax occurring in the Cerrado biome. We used 446 records of occurrence obtained in specialised literature, inventories, museums and photographs, from the following species: Temnomastax hamus, Temnomastax ricardoi and Temnomastax tigris. The niche modeling was generated with the bioclimatic model DOMAIN through DIVA-GIS. The potential geographic distribution of T. hamus is the largest among all Temnomastax species. Temnomastax ricardoi has its potential distribution in the central-north of Mato Grosso do Sul, in regions surrounding the type locality, while T. tigris. exhibits a restricted potential distribution along the carbonate arc of the Corumbá Formation, which outcrops in the region of Serra da Bodoquena and Corumbá, entering the eastern portion of Bolivia.