Bioclimatic Envelope Research Articles

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.

The Contribution of Vegetation and Landscape Configuration for Predicting Environmental Change Impacts on Iberian Birds

Although climate is known to be one of the key factors determining animal species distributions amongst others, projections of global change impacts on their distributions often rely on bioclimatic envelope models. Vegetation structure and landscape configuration are also key determinants of distributions, but they are rarely considered in such assessments. We explore the consequences of using simulated vegetation structure and composition as well as its associated landscape configuration in models projecting global change effects on Iberian bird species distributions. Both present-day and future distributions were modelled for 168 bird species using two ensemble forecasting methods: Random Forests (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). For each species, several models were created, differing in the predictor variables used (climate, vegetation, and landscape configuration). Discrimination ability of each model in the present-day was then tested with four commonly used evaluation methods (AUC, TSS, specificity and sensitivity). The different sets of predictor variables yielded similar spatial patterns for well-modelled species, but the future projections diverged for poorly-modelled species. Models using all predictor variables were not significantly better than models fitted with climate variables alone for ca. 50% of the cases. Moreover, models fitted with climate data were always better than models fitted with landscape configuration variables, and vegetation variables were found to correlate with bird species distributions in 26–40% of the cases with BRT, and in 1–18% of the cases with RF. We conclude that improvements from including vegetation and its landscape configuration variables in comparison with climate only variables might not always be as great as expected for future projections of Iberian bird species.

Quantifying likely cetacean range shifts in response to global climatic change: implications for conservation strategies in a changing world

As with many other taxa, climate change is expected to result in geographic range shifts of cetacean species as they track changes in temperature to remain within their ecological niches. Such changes in geographic range could have implications for the conservation and man- agement of cetaceans. Here, we propose a bioclimatic envelope modelling approach for providing quantitative predictions of how the ranges of cetacean species may respond to changing water temperatures. This combines predictions from habitat niche and 'thermal' niche models for an individual species to determine probable geographic range under specific climatic conditions. However, if this approach is to be used to inform conservation strategies, it is essential that the ability to predict responses to environmental change is validated beyond the period of data collec- tion used to construct the models. Therefore, in addition to validation of modelled current range, we included a step to validate the models' ability to predict previous changes in range over time in response to climatic changes using independent data. We demonstrate this approach using common dolphin Delphinus delphis data from the Northeast Atlantic. The combined model was constructed with data collected between 1980 and 2007, and validated using independent distrib- utional records collected between 1930 and 2006. The validated model was then applied to predict future range between 2010 and 2069, based on projected water temperatures. Thus, the modelling approach is shown to provide the type of information required to help ensure that conservation and management strategies remain effective in the face of a changing climate.

Combining climatic projections and dispersal ability: a method for estimating the responses of sandfly vector species to climate change.

BackgroundIn the Old World, sandfly species of the genus Phlebotomus are known vectors of Leishmania, Bartonella and several viruses. Recent sandfly catches and autochthonous cases of leishmaniasis hint on spreading tendencies of the vectors towards Central Europe. However, studies addressing potential future distribution of sandflies in the light of a changing European climate are missing.MethodologyHere, we modelled bioclimatic envelopes using MaxEnt for five species with proven or assumed vector competence for Leishmania infantum, which are either predominantly located in (south-) western (Phlebotomus ariasi, P. mascittii and P. perniciosus) or south-eastern Europe (P. neglectus and P. perfiliewi). The determined bioclimatic envelopes were transferred to two climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) for Central Europe (Austria, Germany and Switzerland) using data of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. We detected the most likely way of natural dispersal (“least-cost path”) for each species and hence determined the accessibility of potential future climatically suitable habitats by integrating landscape features, projected changes in climatic suitability and wind speed.Results and Relevance Results indicate that the Central European climate will become increasingly suitable especially for those vector species with a current south-western focus of distribution. In general, the highest suitability of Central Europe is projected for all species in the second half of the 21st century, except for P. perfiliewi. Nevertheless, we show that sandflies will hardly be able to occupy their climatically suitable habitats entirely, due to their limited natural dispersal ability. A northward spread of species with south-eastern focus of distribution may be constrained but not completely avoided by the Alps. Our results can be used to install specific monitoring systems to the projected risk zones of potential sandfly establishment. This is urgently needed for adaptation and coping strategies against the emerging spread of sandfly-borne diseases.

Climate Change in Western US Deserts: Potential for Increased Wildfire and Invasive Annual Grasses

Anthropogenic climate change is hypothesized to modify the spread of invasive annual grasses across the deserts of the western United States. The influence of climate change on future invasions depends on both climate suitability that defines a potential species range and the mechanisms that facilitate invasions and contractions. A suite of downscaled climate projections for the mid–21st century was used to examine changes in physically based mechanisms, including critical physiological temperature thresholds, the timing and availability of moisture, and the potential for large wildfires. Results suggest widespread changes in 1) the length of the freeze-free season that may favor cold-intolerant annual grasses, 2) changes in the frequency of wet winters that may alter the potential for establishment of invasive annual grasses, and 3) an earlier onset of fire season and a lengthening of the window during which conditions are conducive to fire ignition and growth furthering the fire-invasive feedback loop. We propose that a coupled approach combining bioclimatic envelope modeling with mechanistic modeling targeted to a given species can help land managers identify locations and species that pose the highest level of overall risk of conversion associated with the multiple stressors of climate change.

Combining citizen science, bioclimatic envelope models and observed habitat preferences to determine the distribution of an inconspicuous, recently detected introduced bee (Halictus smaragdulus Vachal Hymenoptera: Halictidae) in Australia

Introduced bees may compete with native fauna, spread parasites or pathogens to commercial bee hives, or increase the fecundity of introduced weeds. Therefore, the recent detection of Halictus smaragdulus, native to the western Palaearctic, in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales (NSW, Australia) is cause for concern. However, it is currently difficult to justify control measures, as there is little known on its ecology, impacts and distribution. Determining the current distribution is fundamental to managing introduced species, yet this is difficult with inconspicuous species such as H. smaragdulus, especially as recent introductions are often found in low densities. We demonstrated how a combination of approaches could be used to improve the identification of occupied locations in NSW, including bioclimatic envelope models, proximity to known populations, and observed habitat preferences. Members of the public were also trained to collect specimens and improve overall survey efficiency. Bees were collected using pan traps and sweep netting. H. smaragdulus was detected at 44 new locations, extending the known distribution from ~1,250 to 46,800 km2. While bioclimatic envelope models helped guide survey locations, species detectability was higher when observed habitat preferences and proximity to known populations were also considered. We also demonstrated that with training via the internet and appropriate procedures for returning specimens in the mail, members of the public could successfully collect this small and inconspicuous invertebrate, with potential applications for other similar species.

Choice of threshold alters projections of species range shifts under climate change

One of the least explored sources of algorithmic uncertainty in bioclimatic envelope models (BEM) is the selection of thresholds to transform modelled probabilities of occurrence (or indices of suitability) into binary predictions of species presence and absence. We investigate the impacts of such thresholds in the specific context of climate change. BEM for European tree species were fitted combining 9 climatic models and emissions scenarios, 7 modelling techniques, and 14 threshold-setting techniques. We quantified sources of uncertainty in projections of turnover, and found that the choice of the modelling technique explained most of the variability (39%), while threshold choice explained 25% of the variability in the results, and their interaction an additional 19%. Choice of future climates explained 9% of total variability among projections. Estimated species range shifts obtained by applying different thresholds and models were grouped by IUCN-based categories of threat. Thresholds had a large impact on the inferred risks of extinction, producing 1.7- to 9.9-fold differences in the proportions of species projected to become threatened by climate change. Results demonstrate that threshold selection has large – albeit often unappreciated – consequences for estimating species range shifts under climate change.

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

BackgroundCommercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios.Methodology/Principal FindingsIn a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species.Conclusion/SignificanceMore than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

Assisted migration to address climate change: recommendations for aspen reforestation in western Canada

Human-aided movement of species populations in large-scale reforestation programs could be a potent and cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy. Such large-scale management interventions, however, tend to entail the risks of unintended consequences, and we propose that three conditions should be met before implementing assisted migration in reforestation programs: (1) evidence of a climate-related adaptational lag, (2) observed biological impacts, and (3) robust model projections to target assisted migration efforts. In a case study of aspen (Populus tremuloides Michaux.) we use reciprocal transplant experiments to study adaptation of tree populations to local environments. Second, we monitor natural aspen populations using the MODIS enhanced vegetation index as a proxy for forest health and productivity. Last, we report results from bioclimate envelope models that predict suitable habitat for locally adapted genotypes under observed and predicted climate change. The combined results support assisted migration prescriptions and indicate that the risk of inaction likely exceeds the risk associated with changing established management practices. However, uncertainty in model projections also implies that we are restricted to a relatively short 20-year planning horizon for prescribing seed movement in reforestation programs. We believe that this study exemplifies a safe and realistic climate change adaptation strategy based on multiple sources of information and some understanding of the uncertainty associated with recommendations for assisted migration. Ad hoc migration prescriptions without a similar level of supporting information should be avoided in reforestation programs.

Modelling biome shifts and tree cover change for 2050 in West Africa

Aim Africa is expected to face severe changes in climatic conditions. Our objectives are: (1) to model trends and the extent of future biome shifts that may occur by 2050, (2) to model a trend in tree cover change, while accounting for human impact, and (3) to evaluate uncertainty in future climate projections. Location West Africa. Methods We modelled the potential future spatial distribution of desert, grassland, savanna, deciduous and evergreen forest in West Africa using six bioclimatic models. Future tree cover change was analysed with generalized additive models (GAMs). We used climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) and included human population density and fire intensity to model tree cover. Consensus projections were derived via weighted averages to: (1) reduce inter-model variability, and (2) describe trends extracted from different GCM projections. Results The strongest predicted effect of climate change was on desert and grasslands, where the bioclimatic envelope of grassland is projected to expand into the desert by an area of 2 million km2. While savannas are predicted to contract in the south (by 54 ± 22 × 104 km2), deciduous and evergreen forest biomes are expected to expand (64 ± 13 × 104 km2 and 77 ± 26 × 104 km2). However, uncertainty due to different GCMs was particularly high for the grassland and the evergreen biome shift. Increasing tree cover (1–10%) was projected for large parts of Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, but a decrease was projected for coastal areas (1–20%). Furthermore, human impact negatively affected tree cover and partly changed the direction of the projected change from increase to decrease. Main conclusions Considering climate change alone, the model results of potential vegetation (biomes) show a ‘greening’ trend by 2050. However, the modelled effects of human impact suggest future forest degradation. Thus, it is essential to consider both climate change and human impact in order to generate realistic future tree cover projections.

Evidence of Local Adaptation in the Demographic Response of American Ginseng to Interannual Temperature Variation

Bioclimatic envelope models of species' responses to climate change are used to predict how species will respond to increasing temperatures. These models are frequently based on the assumption that the northern and southern boundaries of a species' range define its thermal niche. However, this assumption may be violated if populations are adapted to local temperature regimes and have evolved population-specific thermal optima. Considering the prevalence of local adaptation, the assumption of a species-wide thermal optimum may be violated for many species. We used spatially and temporally extensive demographic data for American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.) to examine range-wide variation in response of population growth rate (λ) to climatic factors. Our results suggest adaptation to local temperature, but not precipitation. For each population, λ was maximized when annual temperatures were similar to site-specific, long-term mean temperatures. Populations from disparate climatic zones responded differently to temperature variation, and there was a linear relation between population-level thermal optima and the 30-year mean temperature at each site. For species that are locally adapted to temperature, bioclimatic envelope models may underestimate the extent to which increasing temperatures will decrease population growth rate. Because any directional change from long-term mean temperatures will decrease population growth rates, all populations throughout a species' range will be adversely affected by temperature increase, not just populations at southern and low-elevation boundaries. Additionally, when a species' local thermal niche is narrower than its range-wide thermal niche, a smaller temperature increase than would be predicted by bioclimatic envelope approaches may be sufficient to decrease population growth.

Persistent climate corridors: The identification of climate refugia for the selection of candidate areas for conservation.

Climate driven changes are catalyzing the global re-distribution of species and ecosystems, and is threatening their persistence. These changes undermine the current conservation paradigm that has a static approach to a dynamic system. Conservation planning agencies, such as the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC) recognize this quandary and have started to incorporate the potential (though uncertain) impacts of climate change into their planning framework. As a component of NCC’s Central Interior Ecoregional Assessment, we identified bioclimatic envelopes for 206 conservation targets (103 BC biogeoclimatic (BGC) variants, 30 terrestrial ecological units (TEUs), 73 BC Conservation Data Centre plant species) using ClimateBC and ArcMap GIS software. Using ClimateBC interpolations of current and expected future (as projected by the CGCM3 model and the A2 scenario) climatic conditions, the locations meeting the 5th through 95th percentile requirements of a target’s bioclimatic envelope were identified for four timeslices (baseline (1960s-1990s), 2020s, 2050s, 2080s) and subsequently overlaid using ArcMap. The points of coincidence between these areas were identified as a target’s projected suitable climate space (SCS); locations or areas of a target’s current distribution which coincided with its SCS were identified as the target’s persistent climate corridor (PCC). Our results projected PCCs for only 10% (10/103) of the BGC variants, 20% (6/30) of the TEUs and 10% (7/73) of plant species. When comparing the projected results with those derived for three different GCM and cenario combinations, it is clear that the existence and locations of PCCs are subject to great uncertainty. Nevertheless, we argue that the identification of climate refugia should be an important consideration in the site selection and prioritization of candidate areas for conservation.

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus ( Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range). First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91–0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70–0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89–0.91). In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011–2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis. The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.

Pollen-vegetation relationships along steep climatic gradients in western Amazonia

Question: How accurately do Amazonian montane forest pollen spectra reflect the vegetation? Can compositional changes observed in the vegetation along environmental gradients be identified in the pollen spectra? How well do herbarium collection data and bioclimatic envelopes represent abundance changes along elevation gradients? Location: Amazonian montane forests, Peru. Methods: Moss polsters collected along five altitudinal transects spanning over 3000 m a.s.l. were used to characterize pollen spectra. Vegetation plot data from a network of 15 1-ha permanent plots were used to correlate pollen spectra with present-day vegetation. Probability density functions (PDFs) fitted to pollen and plot data allowed comparisons using Spearman correlation coefficients. Ordination analyses were used to summarize changes in pollen spectra. Correlations between pollen-based PDFs and previously-published herbarium collection PDFs were also evaluated. Results: Pollen spectra closely reflected changes in species composition along elevation gradients. A mid-elevation shift in pollen spectra was identified using ordination analyses. Pollen spectra from the driest forest in our data set were statistically different from those of wet forests. Pollen abundance PDFs along the altitudinal gradient were significantly correlated (P<0.01) with PDFs fitted to plot abundance, basal area and herbarium collection data for ten out of 11 taxa analysed. Conclusions: Pollen spectra closely reflected the vegetation composition of Amazonian montane forests. The differentiation of pollen spectra from dry localities showed the potential of genus-level pollen data to reflect precipitation gradients. Pollen spectra also reflected mid-elevation compositional changes well along the lower elevation limit of ground cloud formation. Despite collection biases, herbarium-based bioclimatic envelope PDFs also represented well forest compositional changes along elevation gradients.

Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic

AbstractCheung, W. W. L., Dunne, J., Sarmiento, J. L., and Pauly, D. 2011. Integrating ecophysiology and plankton dynamics into projected maximum fisheries catch potential under climate change in the Northeast Atlantic. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: 1008–1018. Previous global analyses projected shifts in species distributions and maximum fisheries catch potential across ocean basins by 2050 under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B. However, these studies did not account for the effects of changes in ocean biogeochemistry and phytoplankton community structure that affect fish and invertebrate distribution and productivity. This paper uses a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model that incorporates these factors to project distribution and maximum catch potential of 120 species of exploited demersal fish and invertebrates in the Northeast Atlantic. Using projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model (ESM2.1) under the SRES A1B, we project an average rate of distribution-centroid shift of 52 km decade−1 northwards and 5.1 m decade−1 deeper from 2005 to 2050. Ocean acidification and reduction in oxygen content reduce growth performance, increase the rate of range shift, and lower the estimated catch potentials (10-year average of 2050 relative to 2005) by 20–30% relative to simulations without considering these factors. Consideration of phytoplankton community structure may further reduce projected catch potentials by ∼10%. These results highlight the sensitivity of marine ecosystems to biogeochemical changes and the need to incorporate likely hypotheses of their biological and ecological effects in assessing climate change impacts.

Predicting potential climate change impacts with bioclimate envelope models: a palaeoecological perspective

ABSTRACTAim We assess the realism of bioclimate envelope model projections for anticipated future climates by validating ecosystem reconstructions for the late Quaternary with fossil and pollen data. Specifically, we ask: (1) do climate conditions with no modern analogue negatively affect the accuracy of ecosystem reconstructions? (2) are bioclimate envelope model projections biased towards under‐predicting forested ecosystems? (3) given a palaeoecological perspective, are potential habitat projections for the 21st century within model capabilities?Location Western North America.Methods We used an ensemble classifier modelling approach (RandomForest) to spatially project the climate space of modern ecosystem classes throughout the Holocene (at 6000, 9000, 11,000, 14,000, 16,000, and 21,000 YBP) using palaeoclimate surfaces generated by two general circulation models (GFDL and CCM1). The degree of novel arrangement of climate variables was quantified with the multivariate Mahalanobis distance to the nearest modern climatic equivalent. Model projections were validated against biome classifications inferred from 1460 palaeoecological records.Results Model accuracy assessed against independent palaeoecology data is generally low for the present day, increases for 6000 YBP, and then rapidly declines towards the last glacial maximum, primarily due to the under‐prediction of forested biomes. Misclassifications were closely correlated with the degree of climate dissimilarity from the present day. For future projections, no‐analogue climates unexpectedly emerged in the coastal Pacific Northwest but were absent throughout the rest of the study area.Main conclusions Bioclimate envelope models could approximately reconstruct ecosystem distributions for the mid‐ to late‐Holocene but proved unreliable in the Late Pleistocene. We attribute this failure to a combination of no‐analogue climates and a potential lack of niche conservatism in tree species. However, climate dissimilarities in future projections are comparatively minor (similar to those of the mid‐Holocene), and we conclude that no‐analogue climates should not compromise the accuracy of model predictions for the next century.

DIVERSITY AND DEMOGRAPHY IN BERINGIA: MULTILOCUS TESTS OF PALEODISTRIBUTION MODELS REVEAL THE COMPLEX HISTORY OF ARCTIC GROUND SQUIRRELS

To assess effects of historical climate change on northern species, we quantified the population history of the arctic ground squirrel (Spermophilus parryii), an arctic-adapted rodent that evolved in Beringia and was strongly influenced by climatic oscillations of the Quaternary. Competing hypotheses for the species' population history were derived from patterns of mitochondrial (mtDNA) structure and a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM). Hypotheses invoked (1) sequential isolation of regional populations beginning with the Arctic, (2) deep isolation only across central Alaska, and (3) widespread panmixia, and were tested using coalescent methods applied to eight nuclear (nDNA) loci. The data rejected strict interpretations of all three hypotheses, but perspectives underlying each encompassed aspects of the species' history. Concordance between mtDNA and nDNA geographic structure revealed three semi-independently evolving phylogroups, whereas signatures of gene flow at nDNA loci were consistent with a historical contact between certain populations as inferred by the BEM. Demographic growth was inferred for all regions despite expectations of postglacial habitat contraction for parts of Beringia. Our results highlight the complementary perspectives on species' histories that multiple lines of evidence provide, and underscore the utility of multilocus data for resolving complex population histories relevant to understanding effects of climate change.

Refining logistic regression models for wildlife habitat suitability modeling—A case study with muntjak and goral in the Central Himalayas, India

High quality habitat suitability maps are indispensable for the management and planning of wildlife reserves. This is particularly important for megadiverse developing countries where shortages in skilled manpower and funding may preclude the use of mathematically complex modeling techniques and resource-intensive field surveys. In this study, we propose a simulation based k-fold partitioning and re-substitution approach to refine and update logistic regression models that are widely used for habitat suitability assessment and modeling. We test the modeling strategy using data from a rapid field survey conducted for habitat suitability assessment for muntjak ( Muntiacus muntjak) and goral ( Naemorrhaedus goral) in the central Himalayas, India. Results obtained from simulations match expectations in terms of model behavior and in terms of published habitat associations of the investigated species. Qualitative comparisons with predictions from the GARP, MaxEnt and Bioclimatic Envelopes modeling systems also show broad agreement with predictions obtained from the proposed technique. The proposed technique is suggested as a rapid-assessment precursor to detailed habitat studies such as patch occupancy modeling in situations where funds or trained manpower are not available.

Inclusion of local environmental conditions alters high-latitude vegetation change predictions based on bioclimatic models

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are typically based on coarse-grained climate surfaces utilizing bioclimate envelope modelling. However, the suitability of environmental conditions for a given species might result from a variety of factors including some unrelated to climate. To address this issue, we investigated whether the inclusion of topographical and soil information in bioclimatic envelope models would significantly alter predictions of climate change—induced fine-scale tree and shrub species range size changes at the tree-limit in subarctic Europe. Using generalized additive models and data on current climate and species distributions and three different climate scenarios for the period 2040–2069, we developed predictions of the currently suitable area and potential range size changes of seven tree and shrub species in an area of 1,100 km2 at a resolution of 1-ha. The inclusion of topography and soil information increased the predictive accuracy of climate-only models for all studied species. The predicted changes in species distribution volumes were contradictory, and the predicted occurrences varied greatly depending on the model used. Our results therefore support the arguments that vegetation responses to climate change can be influenced by local environmental conditions and that attention should be paid to the combined effects of these factors. We conclude that disregarding local topography and soil conditions in bioclimatic models may result in biased projections of range expansions and the associated colonization, extinction and turnover assessments.

Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change.

BackgroundProtected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades.Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research.ResultsMost studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably.ConclusionThe general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas.