Biofuel Options Research Articles

Quantifying the environmental footprints of biofuels for sustainable passenger ship operations

This study investigates the potential of biofuels to mitigate the environmental impact of passenger vessels. Employing a life cycle assessment methodology, this research comprehensively analyzes the environmental footprint of various fuels throughout the life cycle of a passenger vessel, encompassing construction, fuel production, operation, maintenance, and decommissioning. This study demonstrates the application of life cycle impact assessment to evaluate the environmental footprint of a bio-fueled passenger vessel operating on the Baltic Sea route from Tallinn-Helsinki, Helsinki-Åland, and Åland-Stockholm, totaling a round-trip distance of around 700 nautical miles. Ten different fuels, including several biofuel options, were evaluated using two established impact assessment methodologies. This life cycle assessment study focused on five major environmental impact categories: eutrophication, ozone depletion, climate change, and human and eco-toxicity. A comparative analysis encompassed Heavy fuel oil, bio-hydrotreated vegetable oil, bio-dimethyl ether, marine diesel oil, biodiesel, liquefied natural gas, methanol, bio-methanol, ethanol, and bio-ethanol. Based on impact categories like Global warming potential (GWP 100) and Global temperature potential (GTP 100), the findings suggest significantly lower environmental impacts of biofuels than all other fuel options. Notably, biofuels significantly reduced environmental impact, ranging from 70 % to 90 % per tonne-kilometer across most categories. These results highlight the promise of biofuels as a sustainable alternative fuel source for the maritime transportation sector, potentially reducing their environmental footprints significantly. In summary, biofuels offer a pragmatic and timely approach to enhancing passenger vessels' sustainability and operational efficiency amidst the maritime sector's transition towards a cleaner future.

Sustainable millet-based ethanol production in India: a comprehensive analysis of water footprint and environmental impact

This research seeks to comprehensively assess the water footprint and environmental sustainability of millet-based ethanol production in India, responding to the growing interest in resilient and nutritious alternatives. Utilizing a life cycle assessment approach, the study will scrutinize water usage across the entire production process, from millet cultivation to ethanol extraction. The primary aim is to gain an in-depth understanding of water consumption at each stage, pinpointing areas for enhancement and efficiency. Rajasthan exhibited the highest total water footprint at 6596 m3/ton, primarily due to its substantial ETc value, while Andhra Pradesh showcased the lowest at 1906 m3/ton, owing to its high average yield. Haryana displayed significant water usage during crop production, with a water footprint of 5870 m3/ton, where WFgreen, WFblue, and WFgrey contributed 3730 m3/ton, 2010 m3/ton and 130 m3/ton respectively. Uttar Pradesh demonstrated a comparatively lower total water footprint of 2564 m3/ton. These findings are anticipated to offer valuable insights into the viability and sustainability of millet-derived ethanol as an eco-friendly biofuel option in India, guiding policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders in promoting its adoption and addressing environmental challenges linked with conventional fuel sources.

Assessing the Sustainability of Diverse Biofuels through Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Analysis

The global shift towards sustainable energy sources has spurred extensive exploration of biofuels as promising substitutes for traditional fossil fuels. Yet, pinpointing the optimal biofuel necessitates a nuanced evaluation across environmental, economic, and technological fronts. This study undertakes a comparative analysis of three prominent biofuels—biodiesel, bioethanol, and biogas—employing a multi-faceted assessment framework integrating both Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA). Through a comprehensive examination encompassing environmental impacts, economic viability, and operational efficacy, this research offers insights into the strengths and limitations inherent in each biofuel variant. By shedding light on the sustainability prospects of these biofuels across diverse applications, the findings aim to furnish stakeholders with informed guidance for selecting the most fitting and sustainable biofuel options.

Unsupervised Clustering-Assisted Method for Consensual Quantitative Analysis of Methanol-Gasoline Blends by Raman Spectroscopy.

Methanol-gasoline blends have emerged as a promising and environmentally friendly bio-fuel option, garnering widespread attention and promotion globally. The methanol content within these blends significantly influences their quality and combustion performance. This study explores the qualitative and qualitative analysis of methanol-gasoline blends using Raman spectroscopy coupled with machine learning methods. Experimentally, methanol-gasoline blends with varying methanol concentrations were artificially configured, commencing with initial market samples. For qualitative analysis, the partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) model was employed to classify the categories of blends, demonstrating high prediction performance with an accuracy of nearly 100% classification. For the quantitative analysis, a consensus model was proposed to accurately predict the methanol content. It integrates member models developed on clustered variables, using the unsupervised clustering method of the self-organizing mapping neural network (SOM) to accomplish the regression prediction. The performance of this consensus model was systemically compared to that of the PLS model and uninformative variable elimination (UVE)-PLS model. Results revealed that the unsupervised consensus model outperformed other models in predicting the methanol content across various types of methanol gasoline blends. The correlation coefficients for prediction sets consistently exceeded 0.98. Consequently, Raman spectroscopy emerges as a suitable choice for both qualitative and quantitative analysis of methanol-gasoline blend quality. This study anticipates an increasing role for Raman spectroscopy in analysis of fuel composition.

Upgrading Pyrolysis Bio-Oil through Esterification Process and Assessing the Performance and Emissions of Diesel-Biodiesel-Esterified Pyrolysis Bio-Oil Blends in Direct Injection Diesel Engines.

This research aimed to evaluate the performance and emissions of direct injection diesel engines using blends of diesel-biodiesel-esterified pyrolysis bio-oil (D-B-EPB). The pyrolysis process was employed to produce pyrolysis bio-oil (PBO) from solid biomass obtained from fresh palm fruits. Furthermore, a simple and effective esterification process was used to upgrade the PBO. The methyl ester (ME) purity of EPB production was studied to optimize three independent variables: methanol (14.8-65.2 wt %), sulfuric acid (1.6-18.4 wt %), and reaction time (16-84 min) using the response surface methodology. The actual experiment yielded a ME purity of 72.73 wt % under the recommended conditions of 40.3 wt % methanol, 13.0 wt % sulfuric acid, 50 min reaction time, 60 °C reaction temperature, and 300 rpm stirrer speed. Additionally, the stability and phase behaviors of D-B-EPB blends were analyzed by using a ternary phase diagram to determine the potential blending proportion. The results revealed that a fuel blend consisting of 30 wt % diesel, 60 wt % biodiesel, and 10 wt % EPB (D30B60EPB10) met the density and viscosity requirements of diesel standards. This D30B60EPB10 blend was subjected to performance and emission tests in diesel engines at various speeds ranging from 1100 to 2300 rpm and different engine loads of 25, 50, and 75%. In terms of performance analysis, the brake thermal efficiencies of biodiesel and D30B60EPB10 were 7.19 and 3.88% higher than that of diesel, respectively. However, the brake-specific fuel consumption of the D30B60EPB10 blend was 6.60% higher than that of diesel due to its higher density and viscosity and lower heating value compared with that of diesel. In the emission analysis, the D30B60EPB10 blend exhibited performance comparable to diesel while being more environmentally friendly, reducing carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxide, and smoke opacity by 8.73, 30.13, 37.55, and 59.75%, respectively. The results of this study suggest that the D-B-EPB blend has the potential to serve as a viable biofuel option, reducing the proportion of diesel in blended fuel and benefiting farmers and rural communities..

Rice Straw Waste-Based Biogas Production via Microbial Digestion: A Review.

The development of sustainable and renewable energy production is in high demand, and bioenergy production via microbial digestion of organic wastes is in prime focus. Biogas produced from the microbial digestion of organic waste is the most promising among existing biofuel options. In this context, biogas production from lignocellulosic biomass is one of the most viable and promising technologies for sustainable biofuel production. In the present review, an assessment and feasibility advancement have been presented towards the sustainable production of biogas from rice straw waste. Rice straw (RS) is abundantly available, contains a high composition of cellulose, and is found under the category of lignocellulosic waste, but it may cause severe environmental issues if not treated. Whereas, due to its high cellulose and inorganic content, lower cost, and huge availability, this waste can be effectively valorized into biogas production at a lower cost on a commercial scale. Therefore, the present review provides existing insight in this area by focusing on the operational parameter's improvement and advancement in the research for the expansion of mass-scale production at a lower cost. Thus, the presented review analyzed the processing parameters status, associated challenges, and positive endnote solutions for more sustainable viability for biogas production.

Sustainability evaluation, optimization and research dynamics of microalgae methyl ester in a research diesel engine

Renewable energy sources are becoming an increasingly viable alternative energy source for the near future due to increased environmental concerns and increasingly strict energy restrictions. Bioethanol and biodiesel are the most promising biofuel options. In the present study effects of spirulina microalgae biodiesel and diesel blends on compression ignition diesel engines at 1500 r/min utilizing various blends B20, B40, B60, B80, and B100, as well as B0 (diesel), 23.5° before top dead centre and 18.5 compression ratio (CR) at 220 bar. The extreme peak pressures of the engine for B0, B20, B40, B60, B80, and B100 were 103.13, 101.65, 100.25, 98.90, 96.74, and 94.83 bar, respectively. The percentage reduction in ignition delay duration for B20, B40, B60, B80, and B100 was 2.57%, 4.17%, 5.28%, 6.60%, and 8.16% compared to pure diesel. B20 proves to be the most promising biodiesel blend. Analysis of variance analysis was done for experimental data. The response surface method was used to optimize the engine performance and emission parameters for load, blend, and CR variations. Optimized input conditions were found as load 52.27, CR 18.5, and blend B20. The research dynamic analysis was carried out for the sustainability of biodiesel.

Drop-in and hydrogen-based biofuels for maritime transport: Country-based assessment of climate change impacts in Europe up to 2050

Alternative fuels are crucial to decarbonize the European maritime transport, but their net climate benefits vary with the type of fuel and production country. In this study, we assess the energy potential and climate change mitigation benefits of using agricultural and forest residues in different European countries for drop-in (Fast Pyrolysis, Hydrothermal Liquefaction, and Gasification to Fischer-Tropsch fuels or Bio-Synthetic Natural Gas) and hydrogen-based biofuels (hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol) with or without carbon capture and storage (CCS). Our results show the combinations of countries and biofuel options that successfully achieve the decarbonization targets set by the FuelEU Maritime initiative for the next years, including a prospective analysis that include technological changes projected for the biofuel supply chains until 2050. With the current technologies, the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential per year at a European scale is obtained with bio-synthetic natural gas and hydrothermal liquefaction. Among carbon-free biofuels, ammonia currently has higher mitigation, but hydrogen can achieve a lower GHG intensity per unit of energy with the projected decarbonization of the electricity mixes until 2050. The full deployment of CCS can further accelerate the decarbonization of the maritime sector. Choosing the most suitable renewable fuels requires a regional perspective and a transition roadmap where countries coordinate actions to meet ambitious climate targets.

Utilization of forestry waste materials in British Columbia: Options and strategies

The Canadian province of British Columbia has large forestry resources and therefore provides an informative example of the potential role of bioenergy in mitigating GHG emissions. Even in biomass-rich British Columbia, forestry resources are only sufficient to meet part of the energy demand. This paper compares different energy conversion routes for forestry waste materials: via hydrothermal liquefaction, thermochemical methanol and bioethanol, renewable natural gas, cogeneration of heat and power, heat-only boilers, and power-only generation. The GHG savings, health impacts, minimum selling prices, and GHG abatement costs for each option are estimated by combining life cycle assessment with a discounted cash flow model. The input-based functional unit of 1 oven-dry tonne biomass provides a better basis for comparing possible uses of finite biomass supply than the commonly-used output-based functional unit of 1 GJ bioenergy. Heat-only boiler for district heating gives the highest GHG reduction of 960 kgCO2-eq per oven-dry tonne feedstock, while power-only generation delivers minimal GHG benefit in British Columbia. Heat-only boiler and cogeneration offer the lowest GHG abatement costs (<$-20/tCO2-eq), due to lower costs and higher energy conversion efficiencies, and are already economically viable, but will not use all the available resources because health impacts generated by biomass combustion limit their deployment, despite life cycle health benefits for avoiding hazardous emissions from slash burning of forestry waste materials. Refined biofuel options are much less cost-effective (>$50/tCO2-eq); further technology improvement and policy support are needed to offset the cost disadvantage.

New energy crop alternatives for Northern Europe: Yield, chemical and physical properties of Giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis var. ‘Igniscum’) and Virginia mallow (Sida hermaphrodita)

New energy crops adapted to northern conditions of Europe can broaden the portfolio of agricultural based biofuel options in an area with currently few alternatives. This study evaluates two energy crops, giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis var. ‘Igniscum’) and Virginia mallow (Sida hermaphrodita), as possible biomass feedstocks for biofuels in southern Finland. The collected data includes yield productivity, physical and chemical properties, and energy content. The dry matter yield of giant knotweed ranges from 5.41 odt·ha−1 to 27.67 odt·ha−1, whereas Virginia mallow ranges from 6.72 odt·ha−1 to 16.72 odt·ha−1. Pellets from both crops meet the requirements regarding standards. Giant knotweed presents a bulk density of 677.71 kg·m−3 and Virginia mallow 725.18 kg·m−3. The results of mechanical durability of giant knotweed do not exceed the minimum threshold of the standards, with 96.73 w-%, while Virginia mallow is 92.86 w-%. The analysis of the ash content results in 1.5% for giant knotweed and 2.19% for Virginia mallow. The quantities of chlorine (Cl) and sulphur (S) are below the recommended thresholds. Finally, the energy content with moisture content of 5 w-% of giant knotweed and Virginia mallow were 19.97 MJ·kg−1 and 19.68 MJ·kg−1, respectively. Both crops prove are valid alternatives in the climatic and soil conditions of Northern Europe.

Considerations on Potentials, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy Performance of Biofuels Based on Forest Residues for Heavy-Duty Road Transport in Sweden

This case study investigates the potentials, greenhouse gas (GHG), and energy performance of forest residue biofuels produced by new and emerging production technologies, which are commercially implemented in Sweden for heavy transport. The biofuel options included are ethanol (ED 95), hydro-processed vegetable oil (HVO), and liquefied biogas (LBG) produced from logging residues in forestry and sawdust generated in sawmills. The calculated life cycle GHG emissions, based on the EU Renewable Energy Directive calculation methodology, for all three pathways are in the range of 6–11 g CO2eq./MJ, corresponding to 88–94% GHG emission reductions as compared to fossil fuel. Critical parameters are the enzyme configuration for ethanol, hydrogen supply systems and bio-oil technology for HVO, and gasifier size for LBG. The energy input is ranging from 0.16 to 0.43 MJ/MJ biofuel and the total conversion efficiency from the feedstock to biofuel, including high-value by-products (excluding heat), varies between 61 and 65%. The study concludes that the domestic biofuel potential from estimated accessible logging residues and sawdust is equivalent to 50–100% of the current use of fossil diesel in heavy-duty road transport in Sweden, depending on the biofuel production technology selected and excluding energy by-products. Thus, an expansion of forest-based biofuels is a promising strategy to meet the ambitious climate goals in the transport sector in Sweden.

Investigation of carbonization process parameters to manage Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica) in the UK

Japanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica) is an invasive and destructive floral species in the UK. It causes a significant problem to natural and built environments. Stems and/or rhizomes need to be burned before disposal in order to prevent further propagation [1]. This process has a high carbon footprint and a decrease is favored. Hence, carbonization of Japanese knotweed into char, bio-oil and syngas has been proposed. In this paper, carbonization has been demonstrated to be possible. Japanese knotweed can be separated into 2 main parts: stems and rhizomes. Both parts were characterized for their chemical, physical & thermal properties and subsequently carbonized between 300 to 800°C with the duration held for 1h and 2h. It was found that stable carbonization parameters occurred at 600°C with duration of 1h. At higher temperatures, no further formation of char, oil or gas occurred. The calorific values for Japanese knotweed stem char and bio-oil were 31.2 MJ kg−1 and 13.7 MJ kg−1, respectively, whereas those for Japanese knotweed rhizomes char and bio-oil were 31.7 MJ kg−1 and 23.3 MJ kg−1, respectively. Carbonization may therefore, be a viable bio-fuel option for the management of Japanese knotweed.

Tar content and composition during a low-temperature steam gasification of rice husks

The research work extends our recent empirical knowledge on the rice husks, a carbonaceous solid material. This solid biofuel option was characterized with a potential net heating value of 16–17 MJ/kg, significant high ash deformation temperature recorded above 1450 °C, capable and considerable for thermochemical conversion systems. An experimental performance on a dual fluidized bed steam gasifier using rice husks pellets was carried out at a low temperature between 600 and 650 °C and fuel power of 100 kWth. Pure steam was used as a gasification agent in fluidization at a steam to fuel ratio of 1.2 kg/kg on dry basis. Calcite with mainly CaCO3 in composition was used as bed material for the reactor. Tar content and composition in the product gas stream were analyzed with a gas chromatograph coupled with mass spectrometer (GC–MS). Significant high amounts of total GC–MS tar components (without benzene, ethylbenzene, and xylene) and gravimetric tar (higher molecular tar) were detected at 29.44 and 17.82 g/m3 on dry basis. Benzene content was, respectively, presented on a value of 9 g/m3 on dry basis. Obtained products consisted of relevant amount of phenol and heterocyclic aromatic tars (class 2). The specific composition of common and additional analytes presented in GS–MS tar was summarized for better understanding of tar formation and reduction phenomena of rice husk gasification.

The potential impacts of Emissions Trading Scheme and biofuel options to carbon emissions of U.S. airlines

To reduce carbon emissions, the European Union has implemented the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) since 2012 for intra-European commercial flights. In response, airlines have explored various means, including sustainable jet fuels. This article investigates how similar ETS policy would affect domestic carbon emissions when implemented in the United States. The study integrates a model of airlines operations optimization and multi-feedstock biojet fuels life cycle assessment to simulate decisions of biojet fuel and commercial aviation industry responding to an emission policy. We conduct a Monte-Carlo simulation on two scenarios of domestic emission schemes to investigate the adoption of biojet fuels and its impacts on carbon emissions. Our model indicates that implementing an emission policy for U.S. airlines could incentivize adoption of biofuels - a median value of 10% of total fuels in 2050- while only marginally reduce travel demand. Because of a combined effect of emission policy and improved aircraft technology, the emissions in 2050 would only increase 1.37 times the 2005 level despite passenger demand grows by a factor of 2.75. A non-parametric sensitivity analysis suggests that the price of oil, economic growth, and carbon price are the three most significant factors in affecting the fleet-level carbon emissions.

A global strategy for forest utilization: mitigating climate change without unduly constraining utilization

The objective of the study was to outline a global scheme for furthering mitigation of climate change in the Managed Forest subsector of the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector. The core of the study is an analysis of the emissions associated with the start-up of steady-state utilization of previously unutilized forest areas. Example forest growth curves are employed to demonstrate the dependence of the start-up emissions on the forest characteristics. In the case of fiber production, the start-up leads to an effective step-like increase in cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. In the case of biofuel production, a significant level of CO2 removal is attainable in the longer term, but, because of the start-up emission, there is usually an initial period of effective CO2 emission. The duration of this initial period has a strong dependence on the growth rate of the forest and the type of fossil fuel replaced. The results of the analysis were exploited in the compilation of a proposal for a global scheme aimed at mitigating climate change without unduly constraining forest utilization. In the scheme, increased forest utilization for the production of solid-wood products and fiber products would be penalized on the basis of the consumption of such products, while, in certain cases, increased forest utilization for biofuel production would be rewarded. Acceptable biofuel options were identified in the study. An example is the replacement of coal by wood chips originating from forest which has a growth rate at least as great as that of a typical boreal forest.

Greenhouse gas abatement optimal deployment of biofuels from crops in Germany

The optimal role of biofuels from energy crops for greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement in the German transport sectors is investigated under different progressive long-term scenarios, from a set arable land area corresponding to current use. The sectors included are land passenger and goods transport, shipping and aviation. The GHG abatement from the same land area can be increased by a factor of five through switching to higher yielding biofuel options. Silage maize based biomethane and wood based Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG), in either gaseous or liquefied form are the options with the highest GHG abatement potential per arable land unit, and thus markets where such fuels are an option should be prioritised. Sector fuel restrictions combined with fuel yields resulted in the land passenger sector to be the first priority for maximising GHG abatement, followed by land goods transport, shipping and finally aviation. Only when the previous sectors have been covered by renewable options do the following become relevant and thus a large transition is required before aviation biofuels or any liquid advanced biofuel become the climate optimal use of biomass. Applying admixture quotas to sub-sectors yields a lower GHG abatement than an optimal strategy.

Can Biofuels Help Provide Clean Propulsion for Shipping, Now and in the Future?

E4tech conducted an important study (in 2018) for the Dutch Biofuels Platform and the Port of Rotterdam, as part of the development of a roadmap for decarbonising shipping in the Netherlands. In particular, biofuels can provide large reductions in GHG and non-GHG emissions, with a range of solutions for decarbonisation in the short and longer term. They offer greater decarbonisation potential compared to fossil alternatives aimed at tackling air quality emissions (e.g. LNG). The biofuels analysed were hydro-treated vegetable oil (HVO – including from waste oils and fats), Fatty acid methyl ester (FAME), straight vegetable oil (SVO), ethanol (both conventional and advanced production processes), bio-methanol, bio-LNG, Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FT-diesel) and Upgraded Pyrolysis Oil (UPO). The study determined the most attractive biofuel options based on criteria such as GHG reduction potential, readiness of production, cost and compatibility with the current vessel fleet in each shipping sub-sector: deep-sea, short-sea and inland shipping. It also provided recommendation on coordinated interventions from the range of actors in shipping industry that can support the uptake of biofuels, overcoming a range of technical, economic and operational barriers to their use.

Producing Oleaginous Microorganisms Using Wastewater: Methods and Guidelines for Lab- and Industrial-Scale Production.

Cultivation of oleaginous microorganisms on wastewater provides alternative biofuel options while also acting as a remediation technique for alternative wastewater treatment. This chapter describes guidelines and methods for the production of oleaginous microorganisms-with a focus on microalgae-using wastewater as a growth medium while considering a variety of general challenges for both lab- and industrial-scale production. Cultivation techniques described here range in scale from microplates with 10-mL working volumes, up to multigallon, industrial-scale microorganism cultivation, with a focus on microalgae. This chapter includes guidelines for the preparation of wastewater and selection of oleaginous microorganisms combined with methods for the production of oleaginous microorganisms cultivated using wastewater.

Effect of Temperature and Time Torrefaction on the Energetic Properties of Bracatinga Wood

Torrefaction of Bracatinga wood was realized to determine the effect of temperature (200°C, 220°C and 240°C) and time (30 min, 60 min and 90 min) on its energetic properties. We found that the gravimetric yield of torrefied wood decreased from 99.27% to 85.60%. The heat treatment at 240°C for 60 min produced the less hygroscopic sample as evidenced by an equilibrium moisture content of 37% lower than fresh wood (control sample). In addition, torrefaction produced samples of higher fixed carbon and lower levels of volatile content, reaching a maximum increase of 21% and decrease of 9%, respectively. As the most important, the gross calorific value of terrified wood is about 5% higher than control. The increase of fixed carbon together with the reduction of both moisture and volatiles content show that this thermal treatment improve the energy content of torrefied wood that becomes a promising option for biofuels.

Range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis: A combined method of Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to support participatory decision making under uncertainty

Concerns about environmental and social effects have made Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) increasingly popular. Decision making in complex contexts often – possibly always – requires addressing an aggregation of multiple issues to meet social, economic, legal, technical, and environmental objectives. These values at stake may affect different stakeholders through distributional effects characterized by a high and heterogeneous uncertainty that no social actors can completely control or understand. On this basis, we present a new process framework that aims to support participatory decision making under uncertainty: the range-based Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Analysis (range-based MAMCA). On the one hand, the process framework explicitly considers stakeholders’ objectives at an output level of aggregation. On the other hand, by means of a Monte Carlo analysis, the method also provides an exploratory scenario approach that enables the capture of the uncertainty, which stems from the complex context evolution. Range-based MAMCA offers a unique participatory process framework that enables us (1) to identify the alternatives pros and cons for each stakeholder group; (2) to provide probabilities about the risk of supporting mistaken, or at least ill-suited, decisions because of the uncertainty regarding to the decision-making context; (3) to take the decision-makers’ limited control of the actual policy effects over the implementation of one or several options into account. The range-based MAMCA framework is illustrated by means of our first case study that aimed to assess French stakeholders’ support for different biofuel options by 2030.