Binary Black Hole Merger Rate Research Articles

High-energy Neutrino Emission Associated with GWs from Binary Black Hole Mergers in AGN Accretion Disks

The search for multimessenger signals of binary black hole (BBH) mergers is crucial to understanding the merger process of BBH and the relative astrophysical environment. Considering BBH mergers occurring in the active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disks, we focus on the accompanying high-energy neutrino production from the interaction between the jet launched by the postmerger remnant BH and disk materials. Particles can be accelerated by the shocks generated from the jet–disk interaction and subsequently interact with the disk gas and radiations to produce high-energy neutrinos through hadronic processes. We demonstrate that the identification of the high-energy neutrino signal from BBH merger in AGN disks is feasible. In addition, the joint BBH gravitational wave (GW) and neutrino detection rate is derived, which can be used to constrain the BBH merger rate and the accretion rate of the remnant BH based on the future associated detections of GWs and neutrinos. To date, an upper limit of BBH merger rate density in AGN disks of R 0 ≲ 3 Gpc−3 yr−1 is derived for the fiducial parameter values based on the current null association of GWs and neutrinos.

Binary black hole mergers from population III stars: uncertainties from star formation and binary star properties

ABSTRACT Population III (Pop. III) binary stars likely produced the first stellar-born binary black hole (BBH) mergers in the Universe. Here, we quantify the main sources of uncertainty for the merger rate density evolution and mass spectrum of Pop. III BBHs by considering four different formation histories and 11 models of the initial orbital properties of Pop. III binary stars. The uncertainty on the orbital properties affects the BBH merger rate density by up to two orders of magnitude, models with shorter orbital periods leading to higher BBH merger rates. The uncertainty on the star formation history has a substantial impact on both the shape and the normalization of the BBH merger rate density: the peak of the merger rate density shifts from z ∼ 8 up to z ∼ 16 depending on the assumed star formation rate, while the maximum BBH merger rate density for our fiducial binary population model spans from ∼2 to ∼30 Gpc−3 yr−1. The typical BBH masses are not affected by the star formation rate model and only mildly influenced by the binary population parameters. The primary black holes born from Pop. III stars tend to be rather massive (30–40 M⊙) with respect to those born from metal-rich stars (8–10 M⊙). We estimate that the Einstein Telescope will detect 10–104 Pop. III BBH mergers per year, depending on the star formation history and binary star properties.

Population of Merging Compact Binaries Inferred Using Gravitational Waves through GWTC-3

We report on the population properties of compact binary mergers inferred from gravitational-wave observations of these systems during the first three LIGO-Virgo observing runs. The Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 3 (GWTC-3) contains signals consistent with three classes of binary mergers: binary black hole, binary neutron star, and neutron star–black hole mergers. We infer the binary neutron star merger rate to be between 10 and 1700 Gpc−3 yr−1 and the neutron star–black hole merger rate to be between 7.8 and 140 Gpc−3 yr−1, assuming a constant rate density in the comoving frame and taking the union of 90% credible intervals for methods used in this work. We infer the binary black hole merger rate, allowing for evolution with redshift, to be between 17.9 and 44 Gpc−3 yr−1 at a fiducial redshift (z=0.2). The rate of binary black hole mergers is observed to increase with redshift at a rate proportional to (1+z)κ with κ=2.9−1.8+1.7 for z≲1. Using both binary neutron star and neutron star–black hole binaries, we obtain a broad, relatively flat neutron star mass distribution extending from 1.2−0.2+0.1 to 2.0−0.3+0.3M⊙. We confidently determine that the merger rate as a function of mass sharply declines after the expected maximum neutron star mass, but cannot yet confirm or rule out the existence of a lower mass gap between neutron stars and black holes. We also find the binary black hole mass distribution has localized over- and underdensities relative to a power-law distribution, with peaks emerging at chirp masses of 8.3−0.5+0.3 and 27.9−1.8+1.9M⊙. While we continue to find that the mass distribution of a binary’s more massive component strongly decreases as a function of primary mass, we observe no evidence of a strongly suppressed merger rate above approximately 60M⊙, which would indicate the presence of a upper mass gap. Observed black hole spins are small, with half of spin magnitudes below χi≈0.25. While the majority of spins are preferentially aligned with the orbital angular momentum, we infer evidence of antialigned spins among the binary population. We observe an increase in spin magnitude for systems with more unequal-mass ratio. We also observe evidence of misalignment of spins relative to the orbital angular momentum.22 MoreReceived 4 February 2022Revised 28 October 2022Accepted 19 December 2022DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.13.011048Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.Published by the American Physical SocietyPhysics Subject Headings (PhySH)Research AreasGravitational wave sourcesGravitational wavesTechniquesGravitational wave detectionGravitation, Cosmology & Astrophysics

Cover Your Basis: Comprehensive Data-driven Characterization of the Binary Black Hole Population

We introduce the first complete nonparametric model for the astrophysical distribution of the binary black hole (BBH) population. Constructed from basis splines, we use these models to conduct the most comprehensive data-driven investigation of the BBH population to date, simultaneously fitting nonparametric models for the BBH mass ratio, spin magnitude and misalignment, and redshift distributions. With GWTC-3, we report the same features previously recovered with similarly flexible models of the mass distribution, most notably the peaks in merger rates at primary masses of ∼10M ⊙ and ∼35M ⊙. Our model reports a suppressed merger rate at low primary masses and a mass-ratio distribution consistent with a power law. We infer a distribution for primary spin misalignments that peaks away from alignment, supporting conclusions of recent work. We find broad agreement with the previous inferences of the spin magnitude distribution: the majority of BBH spins are small (a < 0.5), the distribution peaks at a ∼ 0.2, and there is mild support for a nonspinning subpopulation, which may be resolved with larger catalogs. With a modulated power law describing the BBH merger rate’s evolution in redshift, we see hints of the rate evolution either flattening or decreasing at z ∼ 0.2–0.5, but the full distribution remains entirely consistent with a monotonically increasing power law. We conclude with a discussion of the astrophysical context of our new findings and how nonparametric methods in gravitational-wave population inference are uniquely poised to complement to the parametric approach as we enter the data-rich era of gravitational-wave astronomy.

Constraints on the contributions to the observed binary black hole population from individual evolutionary pathways in isolated binary evolution

ABSTRACT Gravitational waves from merging binary black holes can be used to shed light on poorly understood aspects of massive binary stellar evolution, such as the evolution of massive stars (including their mass-loss rates), the common envelope phase, and the rate at which massive stars form throughout the cosmic history of the Universe. In this paper, we explore the correlated impact of these phases on predictions for the merger rate and chirp mass distribution of merging binary black holes, aiming to identify possible degeneracies between model parameters. In many of our models, a large fraction (more than 70 per cent of detectable binary black holes) arise from the chemically homogeneous evolution scenario; these models tend to overpredict the binary black hole merger rate and produce systems that are on average too massive. Our preferred models favour enhanced mass-loss rates for helium rich Wolf–Rayet stars, in tension with recent theoretical and observational developments. We identify correlations between the impact of the mass-loss rates of Wolf–Rayet stars and the metallicity evolution of the Universe on the rates and properties of merging binary black holes. Based on the observed mass distribution, we argue that the $\sim 10{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ of binary black holes with chirp masses greater than 40 M⊙ (the maximum predicted by our models) are unlikely to have formed through isolated binary evolution, implying a significant contribution (&amp;gt;10 per cent) from other formation channels such as dense star clusters or active galactic nuclei. Our models will enable inference on the uncertain parameters governing binary evolution in the near future.

Constraining hierarchical mergers of binary black holes detectable with LIGO-Virgo

Most of the binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO and Virgo could be explained by first-generation mergers formed from the collapse of stars, while others might come from second (or higher) generation mergers, namely hierarchical mergers, with at least one of the black holes (BHs) being the remnant of a previous merger. A primary condition for the occurrence of hierarchical mergers is that the remnant BHs can be retained by the host star cluster. We present a simple formula to estimate the hierarchical merger rate in star clusters. We find this latter to be proportional to the retention probability. Further, we show that ∼2% of BBH mergers in nuclear star clusters (NSCs) may instead be of hierarchical mergers, while the percentage in globular clusters (GCs) is only a few tenths of a percent. However, the rates of hierarchical merger in GCs and NSCs are about the same, namely of ∼𝒪(10−2) Gpc−3 yr−1, because the total BBH merger rate in GCs is larger than that in NSCs. This suggests that if a gravitational-wave event detected by LIGO-Virgo is identified as a hierarchical merger, then it is equally likely that this merger originated from a GC or an NSC.

Avoiding a Cluster Catastrophe: Retention Efficiency and the Binary Black Hole Mass Spectrum

The population of binary black hole mergers identified through gravitational waves has uncovered unexpected features in the intrinsic properties of black holes in the universe. One particularly surprising and exciting result is the possible existence of black holes in the pair-instability mass gap, ∼50–120 M ⊙. Dense stellar environments can populate this region of mass space through hierarchical mergers, with the retention efficiency of black hole merger products strongly dependent on the escape velocity of the host environment. We use simple toy models to represent hierarchical merger scenarios in various dynamical environments. We find that hierarchical mergers in environments with high escape velocities (≳300 km s−1) are efficiently retained. If such environments dominate the binary black hole merger rate, this would lead to an abundance of high-mass mergers that is potentially incompatible with the empirical mass spectrum from the current catalog of binary black hole mergers. Models that efficiently generate hierarchical mergers, and contribute significantly to the observed population, must therefore be tuned to avoid a “cluster catastrophe” of overproducing binary black hole mergers within and above the pair-instability mass gap.

Are Binary Black Hole Mergers and Long Gamma-Ray Bursts Drawn from the Same Black Hole Population?

This paper compares the population of binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO/Virgo with selected long gamma-ray burst (GRB) world models convolved with a delay function (LGRBs are used as a tracer of stellar-mass BH formation). The comparison involves the redshift distribution and the fraction of LGRBs required to produce the local rate of BBH mergers. We find that BBH mergers and LGRBs cannot have the same formation history, unless BBH mergers have a long coalescence time of several Gyr. This would imply that BHs born during the peak of long GRB formation at redshift z ≈ 2−3 merge within the horizon of current GW interferometers. We also show that LGRBs are more numerous than BBH mergers, meaning that most of them do not end their lives in BBH mergers. We interpret these results as an indication that BBH mergers and LGRBs constitute two distinct populations of stellar-mass BHs, with LGRBs being more frequent than BBH mergers. We speculate that the descendants of LGRBs may resemble galactic high-mass X-ray binaries more than BBH mergers. Finally, we discuss the possible existence of a subpopulation of fast-spinning LGRB descendants among BBH mergers, showing that this population, if it exists, is expected to become dominant beyond redshift z ≈ 1, leading to a change in the observed properties of BBH mergers.

Cosmology and modified gravitational wave propagation from binary black hole population models

A joint hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the binary black hole (BBH) mass function, merger rate evolution and cosmological parameters can be used to extract information on both the cosmological and population parameters. We extend this technique to include the effect of modified gravitational wave (GW) propagation. We discuss the constraints on the parameter $\Xi_0$ that describes this phenomenon (with $\Xi_0=1$ in General Relativity, GR) using the data from the GWTC-3 catalog. We find the constraints $\Xi_0 = 1.2^{+0.7}_{-0.7}$ with a flat prior on $\Xi_0$, and $\Xi_0 = 1.0^{+0.4}_{-0.8}$ with a prior uniform in $\log\Xi_0$ ($68\%$ C.L., maximum posterior and HDI), which only rely on the presence of a feature in the BBH mass distribution around $\sim 30-45 M_{\odot}$, and are robust to whether or not the event GW190521 is considered an outlier of the population. We then study in more detail the effects of modified GW propagation on population and cosmological analyses for LIGO/Virgo at design sensitivity. For a given data-taking period, the relative error $\Delta\Xi_0/\Xi_0$ has a significant dependence on the fiducial value of $\Xi_0$, since the latter has a strong influence on the detection rate. For five years of data, the accuracy ranges from $\sim 10\%$ on $\Xi_0$ when $\Xi_0=1$ to $\Delta\Xi_0/\Xi_0\sim 20\%$ for $\Xi_0=1.8$ - a large deviation from GR, still consistent with current limits and predicted by viable cosmological models. For the Hubble parameter, we forecast an accuracy of $\Delta H_0/H_0 \sim 20\%$, and an accuracy on $H(z)$ of $\sim7\%$ at a pivot redshift $z_*\sim 0.8$. We finally show that, if Nature is described by a modified gravity theory with a large deviation from the GR value $\Xi_0=1$, such as $\Xi_0=1.8$, analysing the data assuming GR produces a significant bias in the inferred values of the mass scales, Hubble constant, and BBH merger rate.

Merger rate density of stellar-mass binary black holes from young massive clusters, open clusters, and isolated binaries: Comparisons with LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA results

I investigate the roles of cluster dynamics and massive binary evolution in producing stellar-remnant binary black hole (BBH) mergers over the cosmic time. To that end, dynamical BBH mergers are obtained from long-term direct N-body evolutionary models of $\sim10^4M_\odot$, pc-scale young massive clusters (YMC) evolving into moderate-mass open clusters (OC). Fast evolutionary models of massive isolated binaries (IB) yield BBHs from binary evolution. Population synthesis in a Model Universe is then performed, taking into account observed cosmic star-formation and enrichment histories, to obtain BBH-merger yields from these two channels observable at the present day and over cosmic time. The merging BBH populations from the two channels are combined by applying a proof-of-concept Bayesian regression chain, taking into account observed differential intrinsic BBH merger rate densities from the second gravitational-wave transient catalogue (GWTC-2). The analysis estimates an OB-star binary fraction of $f_{\rm Obin}\gtrsim90$% and a YMC formation efficiency of $f_{\rm YMC}\sim10^{-2}$, being consistent with recent optical observations and large scale structure formation simulations. The corresponding combined Model Universe present-day, differential intrinsic BBH merger rate density and the cosmic evolution of BBH merger rate density both agree well with those from GWTC-2. The analysis also suggests that despite significant 'dynamical mixing' at low redshifts, BBH mergers at high redshifts ($z_{\rm event}\gtrsim1$) could still be predominantly determined by binary-evolution physics. Caveats in the present approach and future improvements are discussed.

Explodability fluctuations of massive stellar cores enable asymmetric compact object mergers such as GW190814

The first three observing runs with Advanced LIGO and Virgo have resulted in the detection of binary black hole (BBH) mergers with highly unequal mass components, which are difficult to reconcile with standard formation paradigms. The most representative of these is GW190814, a highly asymmetric merger between a 23 M⊙ black hole (BH) and a 2.6 M⊙ compact object. Here, we explore recent results, suggesting that a sizable fraction of stars with pre-collapse carbon-oxygen core masses above 10 M⊙, and extending up to at least 30 M⊙, may produce objects inside the so-called lower mass gap that bridges the division between massive pulsars and BHs in Galactic X-ray binaries. We demonstrate that such an explosion landscape would naturally cause a fraction of massive binaries to produce GW190814-like systems instead of symmetric-mass BBHs. We present examples of specific evolutionary channels leading to the formation of GW190814 and GW200210, a 24 + 2.8 M⊙ merger discovered during the O3b observing run. We estimate the merger-rate density of these events in our scenario to be 𝒪(5%) of the total BBH merger rate. Finally, we discuss the broader implications of this formation channel for compact object populations, and its possible relevance to less asymmetric merger events such as GW200105 and GW200115.

Binary Black Hole Formation with Detailed Modeling: Stable Mass Transfer Leads to Lower Merger Rates

Abstract Rapid binary population synthesis codes are often used to investigate the evolution of compact-object binaries. They typically rely on analytical fits of single-star evolutionary tracks and parameterized models for interactive phases of evolution (e.g., mass transfer on a thermal timescale, determination of dynamical instability, and common envelope) that are crucial to predict the fate of binaries. These processes can be more carefully implemented in stellar structure and evolution codes such as MESA. To assess the impact of such improvements, we compare binary black hole mergers as predicted in models with the rapid binary population synthesis code COSMIC to models ran with MESA simulations through mass transfer and common-envelope treatment. We find that results significantly differ in terms of formation paths, the orbital periods and mass ratios of merging binary black holes, and consequently merger rates. While common-envelope evolution is the dominant formation channel in COSMIC, stable mass transfer dominates in our MESA models. Depending upon the black hole donor mass, and mass-transfer and common-envelope physics, at subsolar metallicity, COSMIC overproduces the number of binary black hole mergers by factors of 2–35 with a significant fraction of them having merger times orders of magnitude shorter than the binary black holes formed when using detailed MESA models. Therefore we find that some binary black hole merger rate predictions from rapid population syntheses of isolated binaries may be overestimated by factors of ∼ 5–500. We conclude that the interpretation of gravitational-wave observations requires the use of detailed treatment of these interactive binary phases.

State of the Field: Binary Black Hole Natal Kicks and Prospects for Isolated Field Formation after GWTC-2

Abstract Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo’s newly released GWTC-2 catalog of gravitational-wave detections offers unprecedented information about the spin magnitudes and orientations of merging binary black holes (BBHs). Notably, analysis of the BBH population suggests the presence of binaries whose component spins are significantly misaligned with respect to their orbital angular momenta. Significantly misaligned spins are typically predicted to be at odds with isolated field formation via standard common envelope (CE) evolution, and hence a “smoking gun” signature of dynamical binary formation inside dense stellar clusters. Here, we explore whether the LIGO/Virgo observation of spin–orbit misalignment indeed rules out the possibility that BBHs are formed entirely in the field via standard CE evolution. In particular, we seek to understand whether, by varying the natal kicks black holes receive upon formation, we can invoke the CE scenario to self-consistently explain both the observed spin distribution and merger rate of BBHs. We find that, if isolated black holes are born with small natal spins, then BBHs formed through CE require extreme natal kicks to match the observed BBH population, with a velocity dispersion σ = 9.7 − 5.9 + 26.7 × 10 2 km s − 1 and σ &gt; 260 km s−1 at 99% credibility. To avoid the need for extreme kicks, we argue that it is necessary to assume that isolated black holes are born with nonvanishing natal spins, that one or more alternative channels contribute to the observed BBH population, and/or that other unforeseen mechanisms serve to yield large spin–orbit misalignment in the field.

Dataset from: The redshift evolution of the binary black hole merger rate: a weighty matter

Dataset from: The redshift evolution of the binary black hole merger rate: a weighty matter

Mass and Rate of Hierarchical Black Hole Mergers in Young, Globular and Nuclear Star Clusters

Hierarchical mergers are one of the distinctive signatures of binary black hole (BBH) formation through dynamical evolution. Here, we present a fast semi-analytic approach to simulate hierarchical mergers in nuclear star clusters (NSCs), globular clusters (GCs) and young star clusters (YSCs). Hierarchical mergers are more common in NSCs than they are in both GCs and YSCs because of the different escape velocity. The mass distribution of hierarchical BBHs strongly depends on the properties of first-generation BBHs, such as their progenitor’s metallicity. In our fiducial model, we form black holes (BHs) with masses up to ∼103 M⊙ in NSCs and up to ∼102 M⊙ in both GCs and YSCs. When escape velocities in excess of 100 km s−1 are considered, BHs with mass &gt;103 M⊙ are allowed to form in NSCs. Hierarchical mergers lead to the formation of BHs in the pair instability mass gap and intermediate-mass BHs, but only in metal-poor environments. The local BBH merger rate in our models ranges from ∼10 to ∼60 Gpc−3 yr−1; hierarchical BBHs in NSCs account for ∼10−2–0.2 Gpc−3 yr−1, with a strong upper limit of ∼10 Gpc−3 yr−1. When comparing our models with the second gravitational-wave transient catalog, we find that multiple formation channels are favored to reproduce the observed BBH population.

A Flexible Gaussian Process Reconstruction Method and the Mass Function of the Coalescing Binary Black Hole Systems

Abstract We develop a new method based on Gaussian processes to reconstruct the mass distribution of binary black holes (BBHs). Instead of prespecifying the formalisms of mass distribution, we introduce a more flexible and nonparametric model with which the distribution can be mainly determined by the observed data. We first test our method with simulated data and find that it can well recover the injected distribution. Then, we apply this method to analyze the data of BBHs’ observations from LIGO-Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog 2. By reconstructing the chirp mass distribution, we find that there is a peak or a platform located at 20–30 M ⊙ rather than a single-power-law-like decrease from low mass to high mass. Moreover, one or two peaks in the chirp mass range of  &lt; 20 M ⊙ may be favored by the data. Assuming a mass-independent mass ratio distribution of p(q) ∝ q 1.4, we further obtain a distribution of primary mass and find that there is a feature located in the range of (30, 40) M ⊙, which can be related to Broken Power Law and Power Law + Peak distributions described in Collaboration et al. Besides, the merger rate of BBHs is estimated to be  = 26.29 − 8.96 + 14.21 Gpc − 3 yr − 1 , supposing that there is no redshift evolution.

The cosmic merger rate density of compact objects: impact of star formation, metallicity, initial mass function, and binary evolution

ABSTRACT We evaluate the redshift distribution of binary black hole (BBH), black hole–neutron star binary (BHNS), and binary neutron star (BNS) mergers, exploring the main sources of uncertainty: star formation rate (SFR) density, metallicity evolution, common envelope, mass transfer via Roche lobe overflow, natal kicks, core-collapse supernova model, and initial mass function. Among binary evolution processes, uncertainties on common envelope ejection have a major impact: the local merger rate density of BNSs varies from ∼103 to ∼20 Gpc−3 yr−1 if we change the common envelope efficiency parameter from αCE = 7 to 0.5, while the local merger rates of BBHs and BHNSs vary by a factor of ∼2–3. The BBH merger rate changes by one order of magnitude, when 1σ uncertainties on metallicity evolution are taken into account. In contrast, the BNS merger rate is almost insensitive to metallicity. Hence, BNSs are the ideal test bed to put constraints on uncertain binary evolution processes, such as common envelope and natal kicks. Only models assuming values of αCE ≳ 2 and moderately low natal kicks (depending on the ejected mass and the supernovae mechanism), result in a local BNS merger rate density within the 90 per cent credible interval inferred from the second gravitational-wave transient catalogue.

The Observed Rate of Binary Black Hole Mergers can be Entirely Explained by Globular Clusters

Abstract Since the first signal in 2015, the gravitational-wave detections of merging binary black holes (BBHs) by the LIGO and Virgo collaborations (LVC) have completely transformed our understanding of the lives and deaths of compact object binaries, and have motivated an enormous amount of theoretical work on the astrophysical origin of these objects. We show that the phenomenological fit to the redshift-dependent merger rate of BBHs from Abbott et al. is consistent with a purely dynamical origin for these objects, and that the current merger rate of BBHs from the LVC could be explained entirely with globular clusters alone. While this does not prove that globular clusters are the dominant formation channel, we emphasize that many formation scenarios could contribute a significant fraction of the current LVC rate, and that any analysis that assumes a single (or dominant) mechanism for producing BBH mergers is implicitly using a specious astrophysical prior.

Formation of GW190521 via Gas Accretion onto Population III Stellar Black Hole Remnants Born in High-redshift Minihalos

Abstract The recent gravitational-wave merger event, GW190521, has challenged our understanding of stellar-mass black hole (BH) formation. The primary and secondary BHs are both inferred to fall inside the pair-instability (PI) mass gap. Here we propose that the formation of such binaries is possible through gas accretion onto the BH remnants of Population III stars born in high-redshift (z &gt; 10) minihalos. Once the parent halo has grown to the atomic-cooling limit, even brief episodes of gas accretion in the dense central regions of the halo can increase the masses of Population III remnant BHs above the PI limit. Starting with a binary black hole (BBH) with an initial mass of O(100) M ⊙ we find that it would only need to spend about 100 Myr in the inner few parsecs of an atomic-cooling halo to accrete about 50 M ⊙ of material and resemble a system similar to GW190521. The dynamical friction timescale for the binary to sink to the dense inner region of its parent halo is comparable or shorter than the accretion timescale required to increase their mass above the PI limit. Once in the core of the halo, the binary can enter a phase of hyper-Eddington accretion, where it would only take a few thousand years to exceed the PI limit through accretion. Even more massive BBHs could form through this channel, and be detectable by detectors with improved low-frequency sensitivity. Single Population III BH remnants would also grow through accretion and could later form binaries dynamically. As little as a few percent of Population III BH remnants may be sufficient to match the rate of massive BBH mergers inferred from GW190521 of .

Shouts and Murmurs: Combining Individual Gravitational-wave Sources with the Stochastic Background to Measure the History of Binary Black Hole Mergers

Abstract One of the goals of gravitational-wave astronomy is to quantify the evolution of the compact binary merger rate with redshift. The redshift distribution of black hole mergers would offer considerable information about their evolutionary history, including their progenitor formation rate, the dependence of black hole formation on stellar metallicity, and the time delay distribution between formation and merger. Efforts to measure the binary redshift distribution are currently limited, however, by the detection range of existing instruments, which can individually resolve compact binary merger events only out to . We present a novel strategy with which to measure the redshift distribution of binary black hole mergers well beyond the detection range of current instruments. By synthesizing direct detections of individually resolved mergers with indirect searches for the stochastic gravitational-wave background due to unresolved distant sources, we can glean information about the peak redshift, z p , at which the binary black hole merger rate attains its maximum, even when this redshift is beyond the detection horizon. Using data from Advanced LIGO and Virgo’s first and second observing runs, we employ this strategy to place joint constraints on z p and the slope α with which the binary merger rate increases at low redshifts, ruling out merger rates that grow faster than and peak beyond . Looking ahead, we project that approximately one year of observation with design-sensitivity Advanced LIGO will further break remaining degeneracies, enabling a direct measurement of the peak redshift of the binary black hole merger history.