Bilateral Trade Relations Research Articles

China’s trade policy towards Latin America: an analysis of free trade agreements policy

PurposeThe emergence of China in the international trading system has shifted its gravity center, as the country has become one of the mayor actors in international economic relations. Through the subscription of preferential agreements, China is building a network of strategic partnerships worldwide, including Latin America. The purpose of this paper is to answer the questions: Do free trade agreements (FTAs) between China and Latin American countries contribute to expand trade flows and enhance products diversification?Design/methodology/approachThree countries have an FTA with China, Chile (2005), Peru (2009) and Costa Rica (2010). Through an econometric estimation based on a gravity model, the authors expect to determine the impact of these agreements over both trade flows and products.FindingsThe study shows that FTAs have a positive impact on both bilateral trade flows and on the number of exchanged products. Nevertheless, this impact is positive but diminishes in time. The authors confirm that these agreements allowed for a substantive expansion of trade between Latin American economies and China, becoming relevant for policymakers regarding the bi-regional relation.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the understanding of the bilateral trade relations between China and Latin American countries, giving evidence of the magnitude of the impact of FTAs. Through new data, at a six-digit level of detail, this study improves current knowledge regarding bilateral economic relations.

Nigeria-China Bilateral Trade Relations: Is There Market Opportunities in China?

This study used normalized revealed sectoral comparative advantage, import demand share, growth identification and facilitation framework to identify market opportunities for Nigeria in the Chinese markets over the period 1988-2017. Our findings revealed that Nigeria has a steady and long-term comparative advantage in few commodities and there is limited scope for Nigeria to improve on its balance of trade due to limited export potentials. Furthermore, sixteen market opportunities were identified, out of which fourteen are stable and growing markets. Our findings also revealed that these market opportunities can't all be meet by Nigeria, as these commodities were not exportable due to poor competitive position and highly capital-intensive nature of the commodities. These findings are not only relevant to academics but also for policy making.

INTENSIFICATION VECTORS OF TRADE INTEGRATION OF THE POST-SOVIET COUNTRIES

The study analyzes the dynamics of the development of integration processes. It is determined that the current stage of development is characterized by a change in the structure of the World Trade in favor of services and innovative products; by dynamic growth of trade in intermediate goods and services within global value chains. Trade integration covers a much broader network of participants, including bilateral, multilateral and interregional initiatives. The regional trade agreements (WTO-extra, WTO-plus) are being deepened and expanded. It is determined that the most common form of integration processes is the establishment of the Free Trade Zones, in particular on the basis of bilateral initiatives. Based on this, the bilateral trade relations between the post-Soviet countries and their trading partners (Poland, Italy, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Turkey, Czech Republic, Great Britain, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands, Germany, Romania, China) were analyzed. The index of trade complementarity was calculated and analyzed in order to identify the compliance of the export structure of the post-Soviet countries with the general structure of imports of these trading partners for high-tech product groups, in particular: machines and apparatuses for soldering and welding (code 8515 according to UKTZED (Ukrainian Commodity Coding System)), transmission shafts and bearing housings (code 8483), machines and mechanisms for harvesting and threshing crops (code 8433), spare parts and aggregates for metalworking equipment (code 8466), pumps for liquids (code 8413), burners for solid fuel or gas (code 8416), equipment for filtering and cleaning liquids and gases (code 8421), woodworking machines (code 8465), spare parts for motor vehicles (code 8708), electrical transformers (code 8504)). The geographical vectors of strengthening bilateral trade in the studied countries are substantiated based on the assessment of the calculated trade complementarity index. It was proposed to use the world experience based on certain key promising areas of international trade development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus hits former-Soviet countries

The year of 2020 started a new chapter in the development of former-Soviet countries. The coronavirus epidemic, which began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, has spread to affect all countries throughout the world, including the countries of the former Soviet Union. Its influence has already affected the economic and social development of the countries in the post-Soviet space. Closing borders, stopping tourism, and imposing severe restrictions on transport services were the first measures that contributed to reducing the incidence rates. At the same time, these measures affected bilateral and multilateral trade and economic relations among the countries of the post-Soviet space.All countries of the post-Soviet space have taken steps to allocate additional funds to combat coronavirus. Ad hoc funds were formed, the review of budget expenditures and revenues began. However, in fact in the first few months the countries faced economic distress, the overcoming of which could take considerable time.The coronavirus epidemic is taking place against the backdrop of global economic crisis and a sharp drop in oil prices. Economic development models based on increasing consumption without economic growth, increasing the level of external and internal debt have shown their insolvency. In these conditions, the countries of the post-Soviet space, which are highly dependent on the external factor, have also experienced significant economic hardships.Finally, the «price warfare» in the oil market has a strong influence. The United States and Saudi Arabia’s attempts to achieve dominance in the oil market, by displacing Russia from it, as well, have had a destabilizing impact on the world oil market. This factor has had a direct impact on those former-Soviet countries that produce and export hydrocarbon resources.In general, the coronavirus epidemic, taking place against the backdrop of global economic challenges and oil competition, will have a negative impact on the economic and political development of former-Soviet countries. The impact of the epidemic, its consequences, will affect the former-Soviet countries for many years to come.

Determinants of Trade Between Taiwan and ASEAN Countries: A PPML Estimator Approach

Taiwan and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) do not have any diplomatic ties, but they have enjoyed significantly economic benefits, especially bilateral investment and trade cooperation. Over the period 2000–2017, trade between Taiwan and ASEAN had significantly focused on manufactured goods embodied with high-skill and technology-intensive content. Using gravity model with a PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood) estimator, this article explores determinants of bilateral trade flows between them at both aggregate and sectoral levels. We found that economic scale and per capital income of ASEAN have much stronger effects than those of Taiwan at both aggregate trade and the degree of manufacturing. Results also show that bilateral trade between Taiwan and ASEAN has been efficiently performed over recent decades, except for cases of Myanmar and Cambodia. Hence, a dynamic approach should be taken by both sides to promote bilateral trade relations in future.

Economic aspects of the military and technological cooperation between Russia and Turkey as they are today

Subject. The article discusses the active cooperation of Russia and Turkey on some strategic matters, including the military-technological cooperation. Objectives. The article represents my own comprehensive research into the economic potential of the military-technological cooperation between Russia and Turkey as they are today. I evaluate the future, risks and threats as the USA puts more pressure and foreign customers pursue to localize the production of military products inside, getting more involved into the joint research and designing process. Methods. I applied methods of logic, statistical analysis. Results. We see the dramatic reconfiguration and revitalization of the armament markets, intensification of integration processes in the world economy and never-ending prolongation of sanctions against Russia and its strategic partners. Turkey signed the C-400 supply contracts and continues its military-technological cooperation with Russia, notwithstanding the pressure of the U.S. administration, which is evidence of the high demand in Turkey for the Russian military technologies. Conclusions and Relevance. Sanctions were imposed on many Russian defense enterprises. The USA continuously put on pressure countries that cooperate with Russia on military and technological matters. There should be a more close cooperation with partners, including search for proper options for settlement of accounts in national currencies. Russia and Turkey are implementing some major projects, including in the defense sector, which will continue to be meaningful for bilateral trade and economic relations.

The prospects of the economic cooperation of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Korea amidst the expanding trade wars in the modern world

Introduction. The paper is devoted to the review of the current state of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Korea under the influence of the main trends in the development of the world economy in 2019. There is presented the analysis of the achieved results of Russian-Korean cooperation, taking into account the complications of the internal economic situation in each country. The prospects of development of mutual economic cooperation in the context of continuing unfavorable trends of protectionism and trade wars in the world are assessed.Materials and methods. The study uses expert, statistical and comparative analysis, analysis of the empirical data, as well as the methods of induction, deduction, analogy, generalization.Results. As a result of the analysis, the key features of economic cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Korea at the present stage were identified, an assessment of the current state of trade and investment relations between the two countries is given; the prospects of further development of bilateral trade and economic relations are analyzed with consideration to the foreign policy factors and the situation in the world economy.Discussion and conclusion. As the presented study showed, at present the most important sphere of interaction between countries is foreign trade. Traditionally, bilateral trade is the determinant in the relations between Russia and the Republic of Korea. The urgent task for both countries is to formulate a coordinated strategy for the long-term economic cooperation taking into account the challenges that the global and national economies face, and to achieve the level of “strategic partnership” in the bilateral relations in the near future.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫЕ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯ УКРЕПЛЕНИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВА РОССИИ И ТУРЦИИ НА СОВРЕМЕННОМ ЭТАПЕ

Against the background of a general deterioration in relations with the West, cooperation with Turkey may be useful to Russia. In this regard, the need to study the nature of the emerging bilateral trade and economic relations is undeniable.

The Effects of Temporal Shut Down: A Proposed Mitigation on COVID-19 Perspectives

Notwithstanding various media reports on casualties in systems due to the emergence of COVID-19, it is envisaged to have a solution. By far, this study investigates how countries’ bilateral trade relationship is distorted due to COVID-19. More so, it examines the economic and financial divergence in systems from the capital perspectives. Finally, it considers the changes in various industries that are affected directly as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and its distortion in the business model. Employing a case study approach, we conclude that there is a distortion in the supply chain system which has effects on trade relationships. While significant capital deploying strategies were found as mitigation during the pandemics, there is an indecisive business model for the future with inordinate changes in business models during the periods of COVID-19. There is also a risk exposure in both economic decisions and business models due to the uncertain signals of COVID-19. We discuss our findings within the theoretical framework of capital allocation, information/signaling, and adoption perspectives.

The Impacts of Indonesia and Russia Trade Relations on Indonesia’s Maritime Security

This article is to examine the increasing development of the bilateral trade relations between the Republic of Indonesia and the Russian Federation. Also it aims at studying the Indonesia-Russia trade relations on Indonesia’s national security. Thus, in pursuit of its national interest, Indonesia is working very hard to further strengthen its bilateral trade relations with Russia. Marking the 50 year old relationship in the beginning of the 21st century, the two countries have booked an increasing trade in their relations. This research employed qualitative research methods featuring descriptive analysis of the data on the bilateral relations within “The Framework of Friendly and Partnership in the 21st century”. Therefore, the author exposed the works of two main consultation mechanisms, namely the Indonesian-Russian Joint Commission on Trade, Economic and Technical Cooperation and the Joint Commission on Military Technical Cooperation under the President Megawati Sukarnoputri administration (2003 - 2004), succeeded by the 1st team of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2004 -2009) and the 2nd team of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (2009-2014), and President Joko Widodo (2014 - present). An increase is recorded in the overall trade relations of the two countries. Nevertheless, Indonesia still suffered from trade deficit. In addition, the Indonesian defense capability has increased.

Американо-китайские отношения в 2018-2019 гг.: торговая война и процесс декаплинга

In the post-Cold war period, U.S.–China relations have always been characterized by the presence of a large number of problems and contradictions, which, however, did not cancel the readiness of the two states to compromise and seek cooperation on global and regional issues. An important stabilizing foundation for these bilateral relations has always been the strong economic interdependence of the two countries, which has restrained the growth of political differences into prolonged crises of bilateral interaction. However, the arrival of Donald Trump in the American administration significantly shook the basics of U.S.–China relations. Motivated by a desire to eventually solve longstanding problems in the bilateral trade and economic relations by pressuring Beijing to change its economic practices, since 2018, Trump administration has imposed in several stages tariffs on almost all U.S. imports from China, placed restrictions on the ability of American firms to supply Chinese technology companies, labeled China a currency manipulator for the first time in a quarter century, etc. Beijing has reciprocated with imposition of tariffs on imports from the U.S. and other countermeasures, undertaken subtle changes of its economic practices, stringently rejecting to bring fundamental changes to its economic policies. Initiated by Trump’s actions, trade war with the PRC has launched the decoupling process in the U.S.–China economic relations – the destruction of deep economic interdependence between the two countries accumulated over the past four decades, specifically in high-tech industries. There are more and more clear signs that the U.S. trade war with China, which was originally based on economic reasons and motivation, has become a trigger for the development of structural and system contradictions between the two states. Having lost the once-stabilizing bilateral relations basis – the deep economic interdependence – the United States and China are becoming increasingly involved in a complex overall confrontation, falling into the so-called “Thucydides trap”.

Динаміка та оцінка ефективності зовнішньоторговельних відносини України та Канади.

Trade and economic cooperation between Ukraine and Canada is analyzed in the article. A dynamic analysis of export and import performance of goods and services showed decline in cooperation between the countries in 2014, which is due to military events in eastern Ukraine and hryvnia devaluation. Based on the calculated complementarity index, the authors conclude about complementary structure of bilateral trade and economic relations (complementarity index (TCI) was 56.6 in 2018), which indicates the prospects for further cooperation. The positive impact of the complementarity index on the growth of exports and imports between Ukraine and Canada is confirmed by empirical analysis. However, a major factor to explain the slowdown in foreign trade between countries is the considerable distance, which is accompanied by rising transport costs. The positive impact of foreign trade turnover between countries on Ukraine's GDP was proved by the Scatterplot model.

The European track of Donald Trump's foreign policy

Current academic debates on Donald Trump's foreign policy have revealed strikingly divergent judgments about the subject, which are inevitably influenced by the tough political contest ongoing in the United States. Many liberal critics have accused the President of undermining some basic principles and values to which the U.S. strategy has been committed for 70 years. A thorough analysis of the European dimension of Trump’s foreign policy is incomplete without addressing the question of what implications his concept of “America First” entail for NATO, and it necessitates examining of key specific features of Brexit as well. Contemplating of arguments put forth by opponents and proponents of Brexit helps to assess probable implications of Britain leaving the EU for the US-British relations. The UK’s departure may become a challenge for the transatlantic relationship, taking into account its current complexities. The author attempts, in particular, to explain why D. Trump has supported ‘hard’ Brexiteers. D. Trump’s policy towards the EU is driven in a large measure by a desire to overhaul bilateral trade relationship on a more balanced footing. In some cases the Europeans perceive these efforts exerted by the U.S. administration as economically unfair and politically biased, facing unprecedented American economic nationalism. The scrutiny of the above-mentioned issues permits to conclude that systemic constraints significantly shape the foreign policy of the 45th American President, reining in the most controversial ideas proposed by him.

Europe and Central Asia in China’s Belt and Road’ Initiative: A Multidimensional Analysis of Trade Intensiveness

From the middle of 90’s, the bilateral trade between China and Europe and Central Asia (EU-CA) has become more important in the world trade. In 2013, the Chinese government introduced its new economic policy, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which opened a new are of the world trade’s history. This paper is attempt to measure strength and nature of bilateral trading relationship between China and EU-CA. Furthermore, we are looking for the answer how the BRI is affecting on the studied countries’ economies. Many statistical indices can be used to measure international trade relations. This paper has used one such index such as trade intensity. Trade intensity indices have been calculated for the period from 1997 to 2017. Described intensity indices of bilateral trade relations, both countries will help determine how intensively countries that trade with each other. Thus, this study found that intensity between two countries is high and the BRI did not increase the trade intensiveness between China and EU-CA as we were expecting.

Identifying Factors that Influence International Student Mobility in Chinese Higher Education Institutions

International student mobility has been becoming varied and complex. Chinese higher education institutions (HEIs) host about 492,185 international students in 2018, sharing 10 percent of globally mobile students. The purpose of the study was to promote understanding of factors that influence international students choose to earn academic degree in Chinese HEIs. The econometric approach was applied to identify factors that influence international student mobility in China. The total inflow of international students, the inflow of students from both developing and developed countries, and international students with undergraduate, master’s and doctoral academic programs are taken as predicted variables. The political, economic, academic, socio-cultural factors were chosen as explanatory variables. From the sample data of 60 countries of origin, our data covers more than 89% of total international students earn academic degrees in Chinese HEIs during the period 2007 to 2016. The results indicated some differences in determinants of undergraduate students, master’s students and doctoral students from developing and developed countries choose to study in China. The economic development level between China and the countries of origin and their bilateral trade relations are important economic factors that affect international students, and the impact on undergraduate students is more significant. The Chinese government scholarship policies and mutual recognition of academic degrees have been effectively promoted inward international students. Compared with undergraduate students, the academic ranking of Chinese universities has more significant influences on master’s students and doctoral students. The geographical distance and cultural distance between China and the countries of origin are important social and cultural factors. International students from developed countries are more influenced by cultural distance factor.

Identifying Factors that Influence International Student Mobility in Chinese Higher Education Institutions

International student mobility has been becoming varied and complex. Chinese higher education institutions (HEIs) host about 492,185 international students in 2018, sharing 10 percent of globally mobile students. The purpose of the study was to promote understanding of factors that influence international students choose to earn academic degree in Chinese HEIs. The econometric approach was applied to identify factors that influence international student mobility in China. The total inflow of international students, the inflow of students from both developing and developed countries, and international students with undergraduate, master’s and doctoral academic programs are taken as predicted variables. The political, economic, academic, socio-cultural factors were chosen as explanatory variables. From the sample data of 60 countries of origin, our data covers more than 89% of total international students earn academic degrees in Chinese HEIs during the period 2007 to 2016. The results indicated some differences in determinants of undergraduate students, master’s students and doctoral students from developing and developed countries choose to study in China. The economic development level between China and the countries of origin and their bilateral trade relations are important economic factors that affect international students, and the impact on undergraduate students is more significant. The Chinese government scholarship policies and mutual recognition of academic degrees have been effectively promoted inward international students. Compared with undergraduate students, the academic ranking of Chinese universities has more significant influences on master’s students and doctoral students. The geographical distance and cultural distance between China and the countries of origin are important social and cultural factors. International students from developed countries are more influenced by cultural distance factor.

Relationship Between Turkey and Kazakhstan, Commercial Relationship Problem Of Reflection

Aynı dili konuşan, ortak değer, inanç, dine mensup, ortak tarihi geçmişe sahip iki ülke Kazakistan ve Türkiye’dir. Bu iki ülke arasındaki kültürel bağlar ve kardeşlik ilişkileri stratejik ortaklık, müttefiklik boyutunda olmasına rağmen iki ülke arasındaki ticaret ifade edilen ilişkilerin düzeyinden oldukça uzaktır. Türkiye tarafından Hindistan'dan bir yılda ithal edilen motorinin ticaret hacmi Kazakistan ile gerçekleştirilen yıllık toplam ticaret hacmine neredeyse eşit olması bu duruma bir örnek teşkil etmektedir. Kazakistan'ın bir kara ülkesi olması ve açık denizlere uzaklığı ikili ticari ilişkileri kısıtlamaktadır. Buna karşın özellikle karşılıklı seferlere yeni başlayan Bakü-Tiflis-Kars (BTK) demiryolu ticari ilişkileri geliştirmesi beklenmektedir. Kazakistan'ın iç bölgelerinden Aktav Limanına ve oradan BTK demiryolu aracılığıyla Mersin'e ulaşan yükler ve karşılıklı seferler ticari açıdan önemli bir gelişmedir. Aynı zamanda bu gelişme Kazakistan'a Akdeniz kıyısı ülkeler aracılığıyla Güney Avrupa, Kuzey Afrika ve Ortadoğu'ya erişimini sağlayarak yeni pazarlara ulaşım imkânı sağlayacaktır. Yapılan bu çalışmada Bakü-Tiflis-Kars demiryolu Kazakistan-Türkiye arasında karşılıklı çıkarlarının korunması temelinde ticaret ilişkilerinin arttırılması ile mevcut potansiyellerinin değerlendirilmesi ve oluşacak ticaretin kültürel etkileşimine olan etkisi araştırılmaktadır.

Current State and Prospects of Russia – China Trade Development in the BRICS Format

Motivation: The substantiation of the scientific problem and the practical value of the study are determined by the enhanced cooperation of the BRICS countries, in particular the growing weight of Russia and China on the world stage. The main objective of the study: is to analyze the problems of the development of bilateral trade between China and Russia and to provide a statistically proven forecast for this trade for 2019-2020, as well as to develop recommendations for the improvement of bilateral trade relations. Novelty: The author’s statistical model was developed and its testing was presented through confirming the 24-month forecast of bilateral trade between Russia and China. The model involves solving various problems of bilateral trade. Recommendations for improvement of bilateral trade relations are proposed through formation of an investment and innovation model of bilateral trade. Methodology and Methods: The work used the method of forecasting time series, which suggested the use of a model to predict future values based on previously observed values. To evaluate the modern prospects of the trade between the countries, the authors produced a forecast of the goods turnover trend for 2019-2020. The forecast was issued via the software tool Statgraphics Centurion 18. A reasonable model of the 24-month forecast based on the statistical model Random Walk is developed. The adequacy of the proposed forecast model was subjected to statistical tests. To verify the statistical adequacy of the model the relevant tests were done to determine the compliance of the model with the informational criteria ME (Mean Error), MSE (Mean Squared Error), МРЕ (Mean Absolute Error), МРРЕ (Mean Absolute Percentage Error), МРЕ (Mean Percentage Error). However, it should be noted that the forecast was issued in accordance with the trends which had been identified in the preceding periods. Data and empirical analysis: The factors influencing bilateral trade are analyzed, as well as examples of implemented projects of international cooperation between Russia and China are presented. The current dynamics of sales turnover between Russia and China for the period of 2010-2018 with the use of various statistical and analytical methods is studied, and a reasonable model of the 24-month forecast based on the statistical model Random Walk is developed. The adequacy of the proposed forecast model was subjected to statistical tests. The basic hypothesis is suggested for the upward trend based on reference time series. Policy considerations: It can be said with certainty that the level of technological development of BRICS countries will help Russia and China to start building their cooperation in many fields at a completely new level, taking into account their joint experience in overcoming global crises and Western sanctions. International cooperation between Russia and China in the innovation field will help them unite their efforts and achieve significant synergy. Coordination of countries on this issue will help to reduce production costs, cooperation of production, joint research and development, as well as increase bilateral trade turnover.

Is the dispute settlement system, “jewel in the WTO’s crown”, beyond reach of developing countries?

Since the inception of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995, member countries have been heavily relying on the organisation’s Dispute Settlement System (DSS). Exploiting a new database on WTO litigations between 1995 and 2014, this paper describes disputes initiated over this period and identifies potential sources of bias concerning the participation of developing countries. The analysis builds on three different models to determine country i’s probability of initiating a dispute against country j. Either it depends on the two countries’ structure of trade (the rules-based model), or it is also affected by country i’s or country j’s specific characteristics (the unilateral power-based model), or it is also affected by bilateral economic and trade relations between countries i and j (the bilateral power-based model). We find that country i’s structure of trade with j plays an important role in explaining the probability that i initiates a dispute against j under the DSS. We also find clear evidence with regard to the importance of two independent variables: first the legal capacity of i (a variable related to the unilateral power-based model) and second the trade retaliatory capacity of i against j (a variable related to the bilateral power-based). Almost all these results hold when testing for both the likelihood of initiating a dispute and for the number of disputes initiated before the WTO.

Development of Trade Relations of Bosnia and Hercegovina with Slovenia: Different Aspects and Characteristics

Abstract The paper is aimed at identifying characteristics of trade relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) with the Republic of Slovenia (Slovenia) in order to contribute to determining the position of BiH in its bilateral trade. The foreign trade analysis has been performed in the context of the changing trade regime between the two countries, thereby including both institutional and functional aspects of bilateral trade relations development. Different trade indicators have been calculated and interpreted for the period of 2003-2017 and/or for selected years which were identified by a change in the institutional regulations of mutual trade flows. The research results indicate increasing trade intensity between the two countries, with almost balanced export and import flows and with prevailing inter-industry trade. The trade performance of BiH has significantly improved, with increasing intra-industry specialization and trade. However, the export structure and comparative advantage pattern are not favourable toward BiH, which points to the need for improving the country’s position in its trade with Slovenia.