Bilateral Tourism Flows Research Articles

Peering Through the Fog of Uncertainty: Out-of-Sample Forecasts of Post-Pandemic Tourism

Abstract This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model brings a significant improvement in forecast accuracy relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.

Do greenfield FDI inflows promote international tourism?

ABSTRACT To what extent do Greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to emerging markets and developing economies drive their tourist inflows? Using a novel dataset on bilateral Greenfield FDI, this study is the first to empirically investigate the impact of bilateral Greenfield FDI on bilateral tourist flows. The analysis is based on a large cross-country dyadic dataset comprising 103 origin countries and 63 destination countries over the period 2003–2017. The findings robustly establish that greater flows of bilateral Greenfield FDI stimulate bilateral tourism flows, and this effect is stronger for country pairs that are linguistically further apart and/or with greater physical distance. These findings are not susceptible to potential endogeneity issues.

Dyadic hostility, tourism, and regional trade agreements

ABSTRACT This study uses a gravity approach to investigate the effect of dyadic hostility levels on bilateral tourism flows and determine whether regional trade agreements (RTAs) attenuate the link between dyadic hostility levels and tourism flows. We used a balanced panel dataset of 189 destination countries, 200 origin countries, and 16,059 country-pairs from 2005 through 2015. The results show that while low-level dyadic hostility suppresses international tourism flows, its effect is often weak or statistically insignificant. However, the analysis shows strong evidence that high-level dyadic hostility dampens tourism flows across a range of model specifications. Furthermore, the results indicate that RTA membership helps to reverse the negative effect of both low and high levels of dyadic hostility on tourism flows.

Tourist arrivals to Indonesia: does religion matter?

ABSTRACT The Government of Indonesia has initiated halal tourism strategies to attract tourists from Muslim countries. The number of tourists coming from Muslim countries has been increasing, yet it remains smaller than that of non-Muslim countries. This study uses a gravity model framework for tourism flows to investigate the effect of Muslim countries on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia. Using panel data from 196 countries of origin in Indonesia from 2017–2019, the gravity model for bilateral tourism flow was estimated using the random effect model. The variable religion is represented by the membership of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). The model also includes standard gravity model variables and institutional factors to control for bilateral tourism flows. The finding suggests that religion does not matter in enhancing international tourist arrivals in Indonesia. Further, tourist arrivals in Indonesia are more influenced by visa-free policies rather than similarities in religion.

Does the quality of health security of a country moderate the link between bilateral tourism flows and the COVID-19 death rate?

ABSTRACT This study investigates the link between tourist flows to and from China and the COVID-19 death rate. This includes the moderating influence of the quality of health security in the underlying relationship. Bilateral tourist flows data to and from China to 152 countries are used for the empirical analysis. The results show that tourist flows to and from China are associated with a higher COVID-19 death rate. This suggests that international tourism flow is one of the major conduits for the transmission of COVID-19 across borders, especially at the initial stage of the pandemic. Furthermore, the results show that countries with stronger health security capabilities are better at reducing COVID-19 death rates even when they attract a higher number of tourist inflows from China or when they register a higher number of tourist flows to China. Governments, especially in countries that are more globally connected through international tourism, should consider using some share of the economic stimulus funds to enhance health capabilities to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as well as potential future pandemics.

Do Regional Trade Agreements Enhance International Tourism Flows? Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis

This study investigates the effect of regional trade agreements (RTAs)—including preferential and free trade agreements, customs unions, and common markets—on bilateral tourism flows. We explore these effects using a panel gravity data set of 163 destination countries, 171 source countries, and 13,589 country-pairs from 1995 to 2015. This is the first large cross-country study to undertake such an integrated analysis using the gravity framework. Results show that all types of RTAs have a positive and significant effect on bilateral tourism flows. The overall indicator of RTAs that captures the combined effect of all types of RTAs on bilateral tourism flows is also positive and significant, on average, as well as when different regions are separately evaluated. These findings underscore the importance of strong economic integration in fostering international tourism flows. Policies aimed at improving a country’s economic integration with other countries can help promote international tourism flows.

Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

This paper develops an augmented gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by infectious disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10% increase in the number of confirmed cases leads, on average, to a reduction of 4.7% in international tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

Natural disasters, trade openness and international tourism: the role of income levels across countries

ABSTRACT This study uses a gravity framework to investigate the effects of natural disasters and trade openness on bilateral tourism flows. This includes investigating the influence of income levels across countries in the underlying relationships. Results show that the effects of natural disasters and trade openness on tourism flows differ by income groups. For instance, population share affected by storms negatively affect tourism flows in low-income countries, whereas its effect in high-income countries is statistically insignificant. The results also indicate that the negative effect of volcanoes on tourism flows persists after a year in some income groups. Furthermore, trade openness promotes tourism flows in low-income countries, while its effect in high-income countries is statistically insignificant. Appropriate urban planning should be used as a tool to prevent the construction of buildings in high-risk areas to reduce the share of the population that are exposed to danger in the event of natural disasters.

Going Viral

This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

New Insights into the Role of Personal Income on International Tourism

This study aims to investigate the role of personal income in the income elasticity of tourism demand and, more specifically, the hypothesis that the richest and poorest individuals both tend to react less to changes in income than middle-class individuals, who tend to be more sensitive. To that end, this study applies different strategies within the context of a gravity model, using yearly data from 1995 to 2016 and bilateral tourism flows between 192 countries. Results show that income elasticity is determined to a significant extent by per capita income in the origin country and they confirm the inverted-U relationship between income elasticity and personal income. The study indicates that middle-income countries are more elastic than low- and high-income ones, while high-income countries display an inelastic or nonsignificant relationship.

Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995-2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

Tourist Arrivals to Muslim Countries: Is Religion Important?

Tourism is an important source of income for many countries, and religion is one of the factors shown to promote tourist arrivals. An important development in the tourism sector is the expansion of Islamic tourism products. If tourists from Muslim countries prefer to visit other Muslim countries, then the promotion of Islamic tourism products should focus on Muslim countries. This study uses the bilateral tourism flows gravity model to examine the Muslim country effect: that is, whether the number of tourist arrivals to Muslim countries is higher from Muslim countries than from non-Muslim countries. The analysis involved two steps. First, a least square dummy variables method was used using global level data. Second, the Muslim country effect was examined on the country level using tourist arrivals data for individual Muslim countries. The analysis shows that the Muslim country effect is positive at the global level but varies on the individual country level.

Tourism, insularity, and remoteness: A gravity-based approach

This study investigates the sensitivity of bilateral tourism flows to distance, relative prices, and cultural and political proximity variables, with a special focus on small island destinations, using a gravity model. We find that these flows are negatively affected by larger distances between origin and destination countries and by lower gross domestic product (GDP) in both countries. There are significant differences between our subset of islands and other nations. On the one hand, small islands have higher elasticities of demand with regard to distance and destination GDP and are at a disadvantage compared to other destinations since they are small and remote. Furthermore, they have a much higher price elasticity of demand. On the other hand, sharing a common language and a common colonial past with the origin country has a greater positive impact on tourism flows to small islands than to other countries.

Terrorism and inbound tourism: Does immigration have a moderating effect?

This article investigates the impact of terrorism on bilateral tourism flows within the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. It also examines the moderation effect of immigration in the destination country on the terrorism–tourism relationship. The results obtained from the estimated gravity models show that after reaching a certain threshold, terrorism negatively impacts tourist arrivals. This relation seems to be moderated by the share of immigrants in the country of destination: when the share of immigrants in a country is relatively high, the positive impact of immigration on tourist arrivals would counterbalance the adverse impact of terrorism on tourist arrivals.

Gravity analysis of tourism flows and the ‘multilateral resistance to tourism’

ABSTRACTThe literature on gravity equations has recently shown that flows between two countries are not merely impacted by their structural bilateral determinants but also affected by their relative accessibility vis-à-vis other countries. The idea can be extended to tourism analysis: bilateral tourism flows are not only determined by factors affecting the attractiveness of the destination country but also depend on the attractiveness of alternative destinations. This effect can be termed ‘multilateral resistance to tourism’ (MRT) and embodied in cross-sectional correlation across the main tourism determinants. In this paper, we show that the standard estimation techniques applied in tourism analysis fail to properly account for the MRT, yielding biased estimates and nonstationary residuals. We cast the gravity model into the common factor framework and employ the common correlated effects (CCE) estimator to obtain unbiased estimates of some standard determinants of tourism flows in the context of 35 OECD members during 1995–2015. Our CCE results show that the impact of a number of regressors becomes negligible and insignificant, highlighting their role as vectors of cross-section dependence. Our findings stress the need for analyzing the data to detect the magnitude of the cross-sectional dependence and, when the latter is omnipresent, employing MRT-robust estimations.

Common unofficial language, development and international tourism

We employ a gravity framework to examine whether the use of common unofficial language promotes international tourist flows while considering the influence of the levels of development and regions in the underlying relationship. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data set of bilateral tourism flows among 200 countries over the period 1995 to 2015. Results show that common unofficial language is a significant determinant of international tourist flows after controlling for common official language and other classical determinants of tourist flows. This finding holds irrespective of the levels of development of different countries. Further, we show that a common unofficial language is a more significant determinant of international tourist flows than a common official language in Europe. Policies that create an enabling environment for multilingual societies to emerge in a country would help to boost international tourism.

The mobility network of European tourists: a longitudinal study and a comparison with geo-located Twitter data

PurposeThis paper aims to provide a network study of the structural and dynamical characteristics of tourism flows in Europe from 1995 to 2012.Design/methodology/approachTravels in Europe were studied by following the network science research paradigm and by focusing on the whole network of intra-European tourism destinations. Network analysis was used to map and reveal the pattern of connections between states as shaped by bilateral tourism flows. Data were provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization, and the data were integrated with tourism data available from national statistical offices of the individual countries, when necessary.FindingsFor 2012, results obtained from the UNWTO record-based network were compared to geo-located Twitter data as a proxy of human mobility patterns. The present analysis provides evidence of a shift towards an increased homogeneity in the travelling preferences of European tourists, an acquired attitude of visitors to travel shorter distances and a tendency of mobility patterns to merge. Finally, the comparison between UNWTO and Twitter data shows a different spatial distribution of visitors. These results provide a useful insight for policymakers involved in tourism planning.Originality/valueThe contribution of this study is threefold. First, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the only study that focuses on the bilateral tourism flows between all countries falling, geographically or politically, under the definition of Europe. Second, evidence is provided of a shift towards a greater homogeneity in the travelling preferences of European tourists. Lastly, for the first time, this study provides a comparison between topological structure and bilateral mobility patterns of tourism flows, based on two different data-recording methods.

Protocols as a strategy to reduce travel barriers between countries experiencing or have recently experienced serious political difficulties

ABSTRACTThis paper proposes a suite of diplomatic protocols that may be employed to assist the development of bilateral tourism between countries that have been or are currently involved in serious political conflict. The need for protocols of this nature is demonstrated by the difficulties that currently define tourism between South Korea and North Korea. Each country is open to international tourism except for cross-border tourism from the other Korean state. The potential for tourism to assist in the development of peaceful relations between countries has been advocated by a number of scholars but to date a policy mechanism to achieve this has not been suggested. Given the success of international protocols in a wide range of diplomatic, trade and cultural circumstances, the development and adoption of tourism protocols to assist bilateral tourism between states involved in conflict offers a mechanism to promote peaceful bilateral tourism flows. Four tourism protocols are proposed as a mechanism that reduces travel barriers.

The influence of formal trade agreements and informal economic cooperation on international tourism flows

This article aims to contribute to the literature on the effects of trade bloc formation and plurilateral economic cooperation on international tourism flows. This research expands previous findings in the number of countries (58) and types of agreements (formal and informal, global and regional) under investigation in order to (i) capture the effect of both formal trade agreements and plurilateral economic integration on bilateral tourism flows; (ii) test the robustness of previous findings through the use of alternative econometric specifications, estimation techniques and measurement of tourism flows. In this respect, an important feature of this research is the introduction of ‘total tourism’, corresponding to the ‘total trade’ variable in trade studies, as an alternative dependent variable in the specification of the gravity model used throughout the article.

Factors affecting bilateral Chinese and Japanese travel

Apart from economic factors, issues that may influence, bilateral tourist flows include shared histories, geopolitical factors, diplomatic relations, nationalism and domestic political issues. China and Japan provide an example of a bilateral tourism relationship that has been influenced by a range of factors beyond the usual economic factors of GDP, price and exchange rates. A recent history of invasion, occupation and attempts at reconciliation underlie contemporary diplomatic relations between these nations producing both fascination and mistrust. A detailed understanding of the full range of factors that may affect bilateral relations is necessary to understand bilateral tourism flows. This study identifies the effects of history, nationalism, occupation, socio-cultural factors and geopolitical factors on the flow of tourists between China and Japan.