Big Shock Research Articles

Can central banks do the unpleasant job that governments should do?

We investigate what happens when the fiscal authorities do not react to rising public debt so that the unpleasant task of fiscal sustainability falls upon the Central Bank (CB). In particular, we explore whether the CB’s bond purchases in the secondary market can restore stability and determinacy in an otherwise unstable economy. This is investigated in a dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated to the Euro Area (EA) and where monetary policy is conducted subject to the rules of the Eurosystem (ES). We show that given the recent situation in the ES, and to the extent that a relatively big shock hits the economy, there is no room left for further quasi-fiscal actions by the ECB; there will be room only if the ES’ rules are violated. We then search for policy mixes that can respect the ES’s rules and show that fiscal and quantitative monetary policies can reinforce each other; this confirms the importance of policy complementarities.

The nexus of a regional competitiveness and economic resilience: The evidence-based on V4+4 NUTS 2 regions

Economies have always been prone to economic downturns, industry shocks, currency crises, and the current COVID-19 epidemic crises, destabilising a region’s economic growth trajectory and pattern. By re-establishing economic ties both inside and outside regions, regional economies that have been disturbed by a shock may transition to a new growth trajectory. We examined the idea of competitiveness and resilience in a regional development context to answer why one region is more susceptible to economic shock than others and the competitive advantages and disadvantages of V4+4 countries. This article highlights some of the core characteristics of regional competitiveness and resilience and gives a survey of the notion, main empirical results, and planning tasks concerning regional competitiveness and resilience. The idea of resilience is gaining greatness because of the COVID-19 crisis, and its importance is growing in research and economic policymaking. Ideas like “2020 made us stronger” and “resilience, tenacity, and the ability to bounce back” are obviously alluring during the current crisis. The COVID-19 problem, however, has decreased the main systems’ shock resistance and caused failures to spread from one system to another. Thus, it is necessary to suggest a systems approach focused on resilience to have socio-economic systems ready for potential shocks. The paper’s main topic is resilience-focused tactics, with a focus on the current European Union strategy. The European Union must strengthen its resilience considering the COVID-19 issue and the political agenda that is transition-driven in order to move forward or recover but emerge stronger. If policies are to be effective in the long run, an attitude responding to the systemic causes and impacts of big shocks is required.

The Dilemma and Way Out of Real Estate Groups under Covid-19

In retrospect, the Covid-19 hit the global economic hard. As a core industry, real estate also experienced a terrible loss. This paper is aimed to reflect the practical situation affected by the epidemic, taking two typical enterprises as examples on behalf of the whole real estate industry to provide relevant ex-perience in case that if the similar emergency happens in the future. By recit-ing some essential statistics (asset-liability ratio and EBITDA etc.) during 2019 to 2022 and analyzing the fluctuations, it is obvious that this epidemic caused a big shock to these companies. The sales amount and investment de-clined considerably, leading to a fall in companies gross profit and equity. Apart from that, the cash flow also suffered some influences for the delayed inflow, adding risk to the debt structure. Other factors like the shortage of materials and blocked expansion as well as land acquisition also contributed to the dilemma. The business conditions in three four years were not very promising. The companies should adopt effective measures in terms of funds management, shareholding structure, financing structure and inventory supervision.

A dynamic model of defective bearing considering the detailed motion of the roller and the impact between the roller and the cage

To illustrate the vibration characteristics of the defective bearing more precisely, a dynamic model considering the detailed motion of the roller and the impact between the roller and the cage when the roller passes through the defect has been proposed. It overcomes the shortcomings of the previous models in which the roller's and cage's rotational speeds are set as constant values. The proposed model considers the detailed motion of the roller and the impact between the roller and the cage when the roller passes through the bearing defect. The validity and accuracy of the proposed model were verified by an experimental study. The motion characteristics, force characteristics, and vibration characteristics, when the roller passes through the defect, are analyzed. In addition, the vibration signals of the roller passing through two different types of defects are studied. The results show that the roller's rotational speed suddenly increases and the fluctuation amplitude of the revolution speed increases when the roller exits from the large defect. The large defect leads to high-frequency unstable collisions between the roller and the defective raceway. In addition, the slip velocity and the friction force between the roller and the raceway intensify the collision amplitude and generate high-frequency components of the vibration signal. They will also lower the frequency of the roller passing through the outer raceway, especially under high speed and light load conditions. The slipping and the restress between the roller and the defected raceway lead to small variations and big shocks in the vibration acceleration signal, respectively. These phenomena demonstrate the necessity of considering the detailed motion of the roller and the impact between the roller and the cage in the dynamic model.

How does investment portfolio change in pre and post epidemic era?--experience from Chinese medical and pharmaceutical industry

The exogenesis shock, the Covid-19 epidemic, is considered as a big shock in the financial market. The paper discussed how the investment portfolio comprising of the top ten medical and pharmaceutical stocks, changes before and after the break of epidemic. Three constraints are taken into consideration to provide more information to investors. Also, the Medical and Pharmaceutical Index instead of the market return ratio is considered as standard, allowing it much closer to the reality. The research finds that the investors have greater confidence on medical and pharmaceutical industry in the post-epidemic era than in the pre-epidemic era, presented by higher annualized average return and lower Sharpe ratio. The research of this paper will provide some portfolio-construction experience under the global negative shock. At the same time, it is also worth noting that this paper mainly focused on the changes of portfolios with the aim of creating the maximum Sharpe ratio and the minimum standard deviation under certain constraints, whose results showed that the market are having growing confidence in the medical and pharmaceutical industry in the post-epidemic era and more capital is flowing to the corporations with out-standing performance in the anti-epidemic period.

Big shocks and A Variation of the Plaza Accord in an Era of CBDCs

Big shocks and A Variation of the Plaza Accord in an Era of CBDCs

<라이온킹>에 나타난 트랜스아이덴티티 캐릭터 연구

Growing-characters change their identity according to their surroundings. Simba, Mufasa, and Scar in The Lion King would have had similar incidents as children. However, it acquired a different identity. It is said that the most difficult part of trauma is the death of a family member or acquaintance. In The Lion King, Simba witnessed the death of his father Mufasa. It came as a big shock at a young age. Simba, who overcame this and grew up, becomes the king of Prideland through transposition and ascension. To overcome trauma, identity transformation is necessary. To move on to the next generation, Mufasa and Scar face a descent. This properly shows “Circle of Life” (the providence of nature) from the beginning of the movie. Only characters who have grown up after overcoming trauma can be converted to an upward transition.

The industry status of the Consumer staple sector under Covid-19 and stocks analysis

Covid-19 is a pandemic that makes a great influence around the world, which is a big shock on people’s health and social economy. However, not all industries are experiencing a big decline under the impact of the Covid-19, which are still a good investment choice. This paper focuses on the performance of stocks in the consumer staples sector by combining an analysis of three representative companies and comparing their financial statistics before and after the pandemic. After estimating companies and stocks in consumer sectors, the results present relatively great investment value in markets with lower volatility and risk in this sector during the pandemic, thanks to the steady demand for this industry. This paper compares some key data of the consumer staple sector and companies belong to it before and after the pandemic.

Vibration characteristics of mineral composite beams by experimental modal test method

Abstract Some machines, such as heavy presses and rammers, can be exposed to big shock and inertial forces under dynamic severe working conditions. Even if vibration isolation to the foundations of machines operating under dynamic loads is applied, the exposure of these machines to shock and resonance loads may not be adequately prevented. The sensitivity of these machines, the product quality, or life span can also incredibly decrease. Therefore, it is essential to know the vibration behaviors of machine bodies and parts. This study investigates vibration characteristics of polymer matrix composite (PMC) materials by the experimental modal test method. Nine different composite beam samples having sizes of 20 × 25 × 480 mm were produced for modal tests. Composite beams contain different ratios of aggregate and epoxy resin. Each composite beam’s natural frequencies and damping ratios were defined with frequency response and coherence functions taken from the experimental modal tests. The results from the modal analysis revealed that the most influential parameter on the vibration properties was the gravel ratio. As a result of the experimental study, it was concluded that while epoxy-resin, gravel and fine-sand additives increased the stiffness of PMC beam, gravel and fine sand additives also increased the damping rate of PMC beam.

The Turning Point in Indian Environment

The human life in the earth may be continued without water for few days, without food for few weeks. However the human life in the earth may not be continued for few minutes without air. Air comes under. 24 ? 7 in our human system. In such condition, air plus sulphur dioxide is harmful to respiratory system which leads to premature deaths and reduction in life expectancy. It is a big shock to the nation that India becomes the highest emitter of sulphur dioxide of the world, surpassing the China. It is not a encouraging trend for us. Under these circumstances MOEF and CC has notified the norms for various pollutants including sulphur dioxide emission from thermal power plants in December 2015. The norms cover various size plants for various periods with various levels of emission, with a timeframe of two years as implementation schedule. This notification is a correct notification in correct direction, but with some time delay. This notification has put about 1800000 MW in study mode, mainly of coal fired units in nature. The sulphur dioxide emission may be well controlled by installing flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) system in boiler flue gas path. By injecting lime in the flue gas path, sulphur dioxide is converted to calcium sulphite and then by reacting with oxygen, it is converted to calcium sulphate. Thus the flue gas is purified from sulphur dioxide. India has to import this technology. Technology transfer is a difficult task especially on commercial terms. This article narrates the various happenings in the country after the publication of notification.so that the reader gets the overall picture in single presentation. The implementation of the flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) system in Indian thermal power plants as early as possible, may improve the environment prevails in the country. This paper deals with various issues related to Sulphur dioxide emission and reduction measures.

PELAKSANAAN PERJANJIAN KREDIT MIKRO DENGAN JAMINAN UMUM PADA PT. BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK CABANG SUMENEP

The collapse of this sector will be able to cause a big shock to the state of the national economy. In accordance with article 8 of Law Number 10 of 1998 concerning Amendments to Law Number 7 of 1992 concerning banking which states that in providing credit or financing based on Sharia principles, commercial banks are required to have confidence based on in-depth analysis of the intentions and abilities and abilities of debtor customers. to pay off the debt or return the financing as promised and commercial banks are required to have and apply credit and financing guidelines based on Sharia principles, in accordance with the provisions stipulated by Bank Indonesia. The process of granting micro credit to PT. Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. Sumenep Branch, the Bank must conduct an in-depth analysis of the prospective debtor on the debtor's ability/ability to repay all his debts in accordance with the agreed terms. In the implementation of micro credit agreements with general guarantees, where the debtor must pay installments of principal and interest in accordance with what was agreed with the Bank and maintain / protect the goods that have been guaranteed for the sake of smooth credit that has been given by the Bank to the debtor. Rescue efforts and settlement methods in the event of bad credit, the Bank must reschedule (rescheduling), reconditioning and restructuring. Because the amount of credit given is small, the settlement through KP2LN or the District Court does not need to be done. It is enough to take a family approach, allow for extension of credit repayment period, and perform write-offs (establishment of allowance for earning assets write-off).

EVALUASI STRUKTUR GEDUNG FAKULTAS HUKUM UNIVERSITAS ISLAM INDONESIA YOGYAKARTA BERDASARKAN PERCEPATAN GEMPA YANG DIHITUNG SECARA PROBABILISTIK

Earthquake shocks generally cause the biggest shocks in building structures. Earthquake waves, generated by an earthquake event, are the main cause of this shaking. A new building of the Faculty of Law, Islamic University of Indonesia, was selected for this research to evaluate the effect of earthquake shaking on the structural response. A developed time history-based artificial earthquake ground motion was used in the structural analysis. Furthermore, the time history was developed based on spectral matching with target spectra derived from a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. This analysis results in the building structure's seismic response, which is then evaluated based on the parameters set by the earthquake standards/regulations for buildings. This building is relatively safe against design earthquake shocks based on the results.

EMPIRICAL APPROACH TO GROWTH ANALYSIS – PECULARITIES FOR MODELING STRATEGY IN THE CASES OF BIG EXOGENIOUS SHOCKS

Empirical investigation on growth, especially in the course of big exogenous shocks is still relatively ambiguous. While models of developed economies describe the growth process as a smooth movement along the balanced growth path, this pattern is altered in the cases of big exogenous shocks that hit economies. The later accumulation of evidence, including the big shocks due to pandemic and Russia - Ukraine war led to more realistic specifications of growth models as well, putting the emphasize on the impact of shocks on growth processes. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to provide a review of the papers that investigate empirically growth and its main determinants, with the accent on analysis of the impact of shocks on growth patterns. A distinction is made between studies that investigate developed economies and those that concentrate on developing or transition economies. The former ones usually apply the modelling strategy based on the neoclassical linear framework and, their review offers valuable insight and overview of the variables mostly used in growth studies. On the other side, the studies concerning developing or transition countries are rather focused on finding new ways of empirically modelling growth in specific conditions of shocks. Although still the majority of the analyses are based on the linearity assumption, in this review we shall treat only the ones that introduce non-linearity in the growth studies, assessing the ways they address the non-linearity observed in the data generating processes. Finally, the proposed strategy for modelling big shocks in the growth pattern is adjusted growth accounting formula with Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive modelling. The modest number of variables is due to the intention of the empirical exercise to put a focus on the shifts in growth rather than on the detailed determinants behind the shifts. Additionally, it should be emphasized that the informative purpose of this empirical model is limited by the lack of data for other possible variables and by the modelling procedure.

Testing of the Seismic Gap Hypothesis in a Model With Realistic Earthquake Statistics

AbstractThe seismic gap hypothesis states that fault regions where no large earthquake has recently occurred, are more prone than others to host the next large earthquake. It can lead to the idea of immunity after local disaster which, notwithstanding it sounds reasonable, it has been frequently rejected by objective testing. More generally, the estimate of the occurrence probability of the next big shock on the basis of the time delay from the last earthquake still represents a big challenge. The problem is that this issue cannot be addressed only on the basis of historical catalogs which contain too few well documented big shocks, and decades of future observations appear necessary. On the other hand, recent results have shown that important insights can be obtained from the spatial organization of aftershocks and its relationship to the mainshock slip profile. Here, we address this issue by monitoring the stress evolution together with the occurrence of big shocks and their aftershocks in a model where the fault is described as an elastic interface embedded in a ductile medium. The model reproduces all relevant statistical features of earthquake occurrence and allows us to perform accurate testing of the seismic gap hypothesis and its consequences, particularly on the side of aftershock spatial patterns. We show that large earthquakes do not regularly repeat in time, but it is possible to achieve insights on the time until the next big shock from the percentage of aftershocks occurring inside the mainshock slip contour.

Examining the Effect of Economic Collison

This study will examine the impact of economic collision on the non-performing financing in sharia bank in Indonesia. The current study adopts VAR/VECM method to examine inter variables correlation by testing an economic factors, including 1) Real GDP Growth, 2) Exchange Rate, 3) Inflation, 4) Interest Rate, and 5) IDX Composite. A total NPF of 14 Islamic Banks and 20 Sharia Business Units were selected as data samples from 2006 to 2020. The findings indicate that inflation positively impacts NPF in the short run and delivers the biggest shock to NPF. The result states that Inflation, Exchange rate, and Interest rate are the dominant factors to shock NPF in Islamic Banks. From the analysis results, the economic variables, i.e., GDP, exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and the IDX Composite, provide a stable long-term relationship and, in the short term, adjust to each other to achieve a new balance in the long term.

THE HISTORY OF THE COVID 19, AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES (IN CONTEXT OF INDIA`S COVID 19 CONTEXT)

Oil is the most essential fuel for the world presently and the world, India is the third largest oil importer in the world, with 9.7 percent of the world oil imports, after China and USA, India imports around 80 percent of its oil needs and aims to bring down to 67 percent by 2022, by replacing it by local exploration, renewable energy and indigenous ethanol fuel, but in India there is lack of demand for crude oil and oil products due to Covid-19 epidemic, which made Indian government to imply restrictions, to lockdown of various firms, industries, public and private sector institutions, as health emergency, according to the report of IEA ( International Energy Agency) India’s 40 days lockdown has led to decrease in 30 percent fall in countries demand for energy. Price inflexibility is concern for Indian oil producers, as it is the biggest shock since the Second World War, The global economy is expected to enter recessionary zone in 2020, as countries have shut down there normal business activities, to fight the pandemic led to imbalances in demand and supply of oil prices in the Indian market, Indian oil companies are waiting for the tax reductions and packages by the government, in the short term imbalance in oil demand and supply situation. The purpose of the research paper is that, Indian government has a great task to fight against pandemic as a health emergency and oil prices fluctuations in the year 2020. KEY WORDS: History of the pandemic covid social growth and crude oil prices (PETROLEUM),

Torsion and vibration reduction mechanism of roller PDC hybrid bit

In directional drilling, torque fluctuation generates a big shock when using polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) bits, causing problems such as instability in vibration tools. This study presents a new type of composite bit with a roller on the blade. The mechanism of torsion reduction and vibration of the roller PDC hybrid bit is studied through a rock breaking experiment on the roller unit and a comprehensive drilling experiment on the composite bit. Six roller contour shapes, different pressures into the depth of the roller, six roller radial positions and the relative height of roller teeth, and PDC cutters that affect the novel hybrid torsion on bit (TOB) and weight on bit (WOB) are investigated. The equivalent friction coefficient of the roller and axial force per unit depth is used to evaluate the torsional and vibration reduction ability of the Roller. The results show that the equivalent friction coefficient of different contour Rollers is lower than that of PDC cutters, and the torsion reduction ability of the Rollers is higher than that of PDC cutters. The vibration reduction in the roller teeth in different radial positions was 1.59–9.17 times higher than that of PDC cutters, The torque of the roller PDC hybrid bit is 71.72%–98.33% of the conventional PDC bit. The roller shares 1.59%–23.06% of the WOB of the whole bit. As the cutter teeth and the PDC cutter's relative height decreases, the compound drilling torque decreases, the roller bit's weight proportion gradually increases, the torsional capacity decreases, and the damping capacity increases.

The activity of the enterprise in post-pandemic conditions

The COVID-19 pandemic has become a big shock for the global and European economy. For the first time, world economies entered an epidemic crisis, which was not caused by the rules of market mechanisms, but by direct intervention in the work of enterprises related to health, the introduction of prohibitions and restrictions, which negatively affected the activities of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized businesses were affected. As a consequence of this natural phenomenon, nowadays there are practically no international recommendations for overcoming the consequences of the crisis. This fact demonstrated a clear lack of coordinating role of the main players, and, as a result, caused the introduction of unsystematic national response measures. The economic consequences of the impact of the epidemic crisis caused serious problems both on the supply side and on the demand side. The effectiveness of the work of enterprises both at the regional and national levels depend on their management system, especially in crisis situations. That is why the activities of enterprises should be considered together with the management system and the state of the environment. Enterprise activity is an integral function of the socio-economic system, and therefore requires the adaptation of each individual enterprise to the new requirements of the environment, to the corresponding changes, new logic and new principles regarding the functioning of the enterprise in the new conditions of the post-pandemic crisis, and therefore is important and relevant.

Sustainability indicator for resilient city amid the COVID-19 Pandemic in Lowokwaru District, Malang City, Indonesia

The COVID-19 pandemic brings a big shock to Malang city. Meanwhile, the city is also stressed out due to population development and the high flow of urbanization, especially because of students who continue to live in Malang City and in the suburban areas. Urbanization is the result of planning to develop Malang City as an educational city with various educational institutions. This research aims to formulate the sustainability indicator of Malang City regarding resilient city amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample used to measure the sustainability indicator is Lowokwaru District. Regarding the development planning of Malang City as an education city, Lowokwaru District is a very suitable sample because 1/3 of the universities in Malang City are concentrated in Lowokwaru District. Besides, there are also other educational facilities such as 12 elementary schools, 11 junior high schools, nine senior high schools, and eight vocational high schools. Therefore, Lowokwaru District is measured by the sustainability indicator, namely density, diversity, and compactness to formulate a resilient city amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The results of calculations and interpretations from similar studies show that the sustainability of Malang City is at a moderate level of sustainability in terms of resilient city amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with a moderate population density (101.1-200 people/ha); medium building density (20-40 buildings/ha); the level of random diversity (the closest neighbour value is 1.1 and the entropy index is 0.51), where the distribution of facilities and infrastructure is not evenly distributed throughout the districts; and compactness is almost uneven.

The M 6.5 Ambon earthquake 26 September 2019: the source mechanism and the aftershock sequence characteristics

The area of Ambon, Maluku is located in the subduction zone in bands where the Australian plate meets the Eurasian plate, thus causing tectonic activities. The Ambon earthquake on 26th September 2019 with 6.5 Magnitude, while the Epicentral coordinates of the earthquake were determined as 3,53° S and 128,39° E and a focal depth of 10 km, according to the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Indonesia. This earthquake was strongly felt at the biggest shock was felt with intensity VI-VII as unified in Ambon City, while several other areas are reported to have experienced small shaking, such as Intensity V in Masohi, and Intensity IV in Namlea and Namrole. We used a dataset of 24 waveforms of seven sensors, we determine a tabular solution, which have a large moment of 0.4573 x 1019 N-m, the depth is 6 km by minimizing the inversion residual. The method resulting strike and rake fault, with strike: 341.8°; dip; 81.5°; rake: 158.4°, and second nodal plane strike: 75.1°; dip; 68.6°; rake: 9.14°. The mechanisms were compared with those from other agency in agreement. The time decay intervals between mainshocks and significant aftershocks follow Mogi and Utsu’s Law but with a relatively faster rate of decay than that of aftershocks in general.