Judgment Bias Research Articles

USABILITY WEBSITE EVALUATION FOR FRESH FOOD PRODUCT IN SME’S ONLINE BUSINESS WITH FUZZY AHP-TOPSIS INTEGRATION

Service providers are increasingly competing to give the highest quality services to satisfy website users with the increased competition. Therefore, small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) should use technology in their product sales processes to become more competitive in the global market. This article will evaluate fresh food product e-commerce websites to see which one performs better in terms of usability. These parameters are investigated based on numerous research findings and the website attributes. To compare the outcomes, the evaluation was carried out using two alternative methods: fuzzy AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS. Fuzzy AHP results and analysis were used to determine the weights of the main and sub-factors, while Fuzzy TOPSIS was used to determine the ranking of alternatives. A Triangular Fuzzy Number (TFN) deals with poor assessments in biased judgments. The result from this study shows that the best website usability is website-1 because it closely follows crucial factors compared to the other two websites. The Website-3 comes in second, followed by the Website-2. Website-1 had the highest relative closeness score (0.5333), indicating that Website-1 has the best usability level among the three websites examined in this study. With a relative closeness of 0.5143, Website-3 came in second. Website-2 received the lowest score (0.5012), indicating that it has the least application of the critical success characteristics required for a fresh food product e-commerce website with the best usability level.

Autistic individuals show less grouping-induced bias in numerosity judgments

IntroductionWhen items are connected together, they tend to be perceived as an integrated whole rather than as individual dots, causing a strong underestimation of the numerosity of the ensemble. Previous evidence on grouping-induced biases of numerosity has shown a dependency on autistic-like personality traits in neurotypical adults, with a weaker tendency for grouping into meaningful segmented objects in individuals with strong autistic traits. Here we asked whether this result would generalize to the autistic population.MethodsTwenty-two adults with a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and 22 matched neurotypical controls judged the numerosity of clouds of dot-pairs connected by thin lines.ResultsResults showed no significant group difference in discrimination precision, suggesting that both groups were equally capable performing the task. However, while connecting pairs of dots at moderate numerosities caused large changes in apparent numerosity in the neurotypical controls, particularly those with low autistic-like traits, it had little effect in the group of autistic participants, suggesting significant differences in numerosity estimation between autistic and neurotypical perception. Consistent with earlier studies, the magnitude of the effect covaried strongly with AQ-defined autistic traits in the neurotypical range, reinforcing the idea that autistic traits predict the strength of grouping.DiscussionThese results provide strong support for the theories of autistic perception that highlight dissimilarities in global vs. local processing, and open the door to study grouping mechanisms indirectly, by asking participants to report on the apparent numerosity rather than on the grouping organization per se.

Revisiting the Psychology of Structured Analytical Techniques

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are considered the gold standard for intelligence practitioners to mitigate judgmental biases. On the other hand, recent psychological research has challenged the effectiveness of SATs. Here, these seemingly irreconcilable standpoints will, to some extent, be reunited. To this end, the empirical evidence of three prominent SATs is reviewed: empirical research provides support for brainstorming and devil’s advocacy. The analysis of competing hypotheses, however, does not have empirical support. Based on the literature review and conceptual criticism of SATs, implications are discussed: the Intelligence Community (IC) must discard its antiempiricism. To this end, intelligence studies programs should regularly incorporate quantitative research methods courses in their curricula. The research community, on the other hand, should seek more frequent collaboration with the IC, to support the IC in improving the empirical foundations of their work. This could improve judgmental processes in intelligence analysis as well—possibly both within and beyond SATs. Moreover, other tasks in the IC (e.g., human intelligence) would benefit from a sound empirical approach as well.

Fearful snake pictures make monkeys pessimistic

Judgment bias is the cognitive tendency of animals experiencing negative (or positive) affect to expect undesirable (or favorable) outcomes in ambiguous situations. The lack of examination of judgment biases induced by ecologically relevant stimuli hampers our understanding of the adaptive role of these biases. We examined whether predator-related stimuli, i.e., pictures of snakes, induce a pessimistic judgment bias in Japanese macaques (Macaca fuscata). Our subjects underwent a touchscreen-based Go/No-go judgment bias test. We found that the subjects were less likely and slower to make Go responses to ambiguous stimuli after viewing the snake pictures, indicating that pictures of snakes induce a pessimistic evaluation of ambiguous stimuli. In environments with high levels of threat, behavioral strategies that reduce risk-taking would be evolutionarily advantageous. Hence, an affective response system that lowers expectations of favorable outcomes in ambiguous situations after encountering threat-related stimuli would serve adaptive purposes, such as curbing excessive exploratory behavior.

An unbiased artificial referee in beauty contests based on pattern recognition and AI

Beauty contests have long been popular, but concerns about fairness and bias in judgment have emerged. To address this, integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and pattern recognition (PR) as an unbiased referee shows promise. This paper aims to assess the significance of different facial features, including eyes, nose, lips, chin, eyebrows, and jaws, as well as the role of angles and geometric facial measurements, such as distances between facial landmarks and ratios, in the context of beauty assessment. This study also employs two techniques, namely Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and stacked regression, to predict the attractiveness of faces. The experimental data set used for evaluation is the SCUT-FBP benchmark database. The obtained results, indicated by Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (PCC), demonstrate the high accuracy of our attractiveness prediction model. This research contributes to the advancement of automatic facial beauty analysis and its practical implications. Furthermore, our results surpass those published recently, further validating the effectiveness of our approach.

Truth sensitivity and partisan bias in responses to misinformation.

Misinformation represents one of the greatest challenges for the functioning of societies in the information age. Drawing on a signal-detection framework, the current research investigated two distinct aspects of misinformation susceptibility: truth sensitivity, conceptualized as accurate discrimination between true and false information, and partisan bias, conceptualized as lower acceptance threshold for ideology-congruent information compared to ideology-incongruent information. Four preregistered experiments (n = 2,423) examined (a) truth sensitivity and partisan bias in veracity judgments and decisions to share information and (b) determinants and correlates of truth sensitivity and partisan bias in responses to misinformation. Although participants were able to distinguish between true and false information to a considerable extent, sharing decisions were largely unaffected by actual information veracity. A strong partisan bias emerged for both veracity judgments and sharing decisions, with partisan bias being unrelated to the overall degree of truth sensitivity. While truth sensitivity increased as a function of cognitive reflection during encoding, partisan bias increased as a function of subjective confidence. Truth sensitivity and partisan bias were both associated with misinformation susceptibility, but partisan bias was a stronger and more reliable predictor of misinformation susceptibility than truth sensitivity. Implications and open questions for future research are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Faces in Working Memory Cause Racial Biases in Subsequent Trustworthiness Judgments

Faces in Working Memory Cause Racial Biases in Subsequent Trustworthiness Judgments

Unintentional Bias and Managerial Reporting

ABSTRACT We examine the impact of unintentional biases in managerial judgment and in audited accounting information on the reporting of unverifiable private managerial information for stewardship purposes. Such biases are exogenous and irreducible; awareness of their existence does not eliminate bias or lead to heterogeneous beliefs—all agents have common, objective beliefs. We show that any biased managerial judgment in interpreting private information and negatively biased accounting (conservatism) reduce timely reporting of private managerial information by managers. Only positively biased (less conservative) accounting increases such reporting by managers. Contrary to conventional wisdom, negative accounting biases, instead of counteracting the effect of positive managerial bias, act to further reduce reporting by managers and, thus, the supply of timely information to capital markets. Thus, freedom from bias, both in managerial judgment and in accounting, more likely results in managers issuing timely reports.

Association Between Judgment Biases During Facial Processing and Body Dysmorphic Symptomatology

BackgroundRecent work has shown that judgment biases during facial processing serve as a correlate of dysmorphic concern. The current study aimed to replicate and extend this work by further testing larger model-congruent interrelations between judgment biases and intrusions, negative affect, maladaptive behaviors and social media investment.MethodsFemales reporting high (n = 30) vs. low (n = 33) dysmorphic concern categorized photographs of their own and other faces in terms of either attractiveness or gaze direction using the Biased Judgment-Dimension Task. To assess intrusions and maladaptive behaviors, participants completed the Task-Irrelevant Intrusions Task and a 3-day diary, respectively.ResultsResults revealed that, regardless of judgment required, individuals low in dysmorphic concern were faster to make judgments about attractive vs. unattractive photographs. We termed this novel and potentially protective bias “Efficient Processing of Attractive Self” (EPAS). Furthermore, EPAS patterns predicted lower dysmorphic concern, higher self-esteem, and reduced maladaptive behaviors, including reduced screen time.ConclusionsThese findings are consistent with a potential relevance of EPAS in maintaining dysmorphic concern. Associations with cognitive-behavioral factors highlight potential benefits of modifying these bias patterns during visually oriented interventions.

The Misinformation Susceptibility Test (MIST): A psychometrically validated measure of news veracity discernment.

Interest in the psychology of misinformation has exploded in recent years. Despite ample research, to date there is no validated framework to measure misinformation susceptibility. Therefore, we introduce Verification done, a nuanced interpretation schema and assessment tool that simultaneously considers Veracity discernment, and its distinct, measurable abilities (real/fake news detection), and biases (distrust/naïvité-negative/positive judgment bias). We then conduct three studies with seven independent samples (Ntotal = 8504) to show how to develop, validate, and apply the Misinformation Susceptibility Test (MIST). In Study 1 (N = 409) we use a neural network language model to generate items, and use three psychometric methods-factor analysis, item response theory, and exploratory graph analysis-to create the MIST-20 (20 items; completion time < 2 minutes), the MIST-16 (16 items; < 2 minutes), and the MIST-8 (8 items; < 1 minute). In Study 2 (N = 7674) we confirm the internal and predictive validity of the MIST in five national quota samples (US, UK), across 2 years, from three different sampling platforms-Respondi, CloudResearch, and Prolific. We also explore the MIST's nomological net and generate age-, region-, and country-specific norm tables. In Study 3 (N = 421) we demonstrate how the MIST-in conjunction with Verification done-can provide novel insights on existing psychological interventions, thereby advancing theory development. Finally, we outline the versatile implementations of the MIST as a screening tool, covariate, and intervention evaluation framework. As all methods are transparently reported and detailed, this work will allow other researchers to create similar scales or adapt them for any population of interest.

Insights from the judgment bias paradigm: Social group and tank size does not affect mental state in female guppies.

Optimal holding conditions are key to animal welfare. How stressful husbandry is perceived by the animal can be determined via assessment of an animal's mental state - where it is positioned on the continuum between optimistic and pessimistic state - and can be measured using the judgment bias paradigm. In this test, individuals are trained to distinguish a rewarded from an unrewarded cue before being presented an ambiguous, intermediate cue. The response time to the ambiguous cue is then indicative of mental state. A shorter latency suggests a more positive (optimistic) mental state, a longer latency a more negative (pessimistic) mental state. Here, we used the judgment bias paradigm to assess the impact of standard laboratory housing conditions on the mental states of female guppies (Poecilia reticulata). As it is debated which holding conditions confer optimal welfare, we tested the impact of husbandry on mental state by keeping animals for three weeks in small or large social groups in either small or large tanks. We found that the different standard housing conditions we used did not lead to differences in mental state. As an unexpected side result, we found that female guppies seem lateral. Our findings of comparable mental state across housing conditions suggest that guppies either perceive the tested conditions as equally stressful or alternatively, that guppies are relatively resilient to the combination of group and tank sizes tested in this study. We conclude that the judgment bias paradigm can be a useful tool to assess fish welfare. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Training for a cognitive judgement bias task does not affect fear or telomere shortening in laying hens

For behavioural tests such as the cognitive judgement bias task (JBT), animals usually undergo weeks of training involving various elements, such as handling, social isolation and learning the task. These may influence their affective state and other welfare indicators. Here, we investigated the effects of training for a JBT on fear-related behaviour in laying hens and a potential welfare indicator – telomere shortening. Hens were trained for a JBT (N = 16, across 2 batches), or kept as controls (N = 16, across 2 batches) that received no training or training-related handling. Hens that reached the learning criterion (N = 14) were tested in six JBT test sessions. Before and after the trained hens received JBT training, blood was collected from all hens, and they were assessed for fear-related behaviour by being subjected to open field, human approach, and tonic immobility tests. Relative telomere lengths (RTL; i.e., ratio of telomeric repeats versus a single copy control) were obtained from blood samples with a quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method. As anticipation of the JBT sessions could affect the JBT outcome, we also recorded behavioural indicators of anticipation prior to each JBT test session. Except for an increased latency to first step in the open field test after training in the trained hens (t = 3.1, df=28, P = 0.012; conditional R2=0.59), no other fear-related behaviour significantly differed in either group (P > 0.05) and RTL was not affected. In addition, none of the anticipation indicators predicted the JBT test outcome. Contra to our hypotheses, welfare-related aspects may not be strongly affected by the JBT training. However, the enriched housing of the hens from both treatments might have minimised the effect of training on fear and telomere shortening, or training may have affected indicators other than the ones we investigated. We conclude that because JBT training and testing does not affect fear assessment and telomere shortening outcomes in hens housed in enriched housing conditions, the same individuals can be used in welfare assessments involving similar assessments. Our results also suggest that the JBT itself may be robust against the temporary affective states associated with anticipation.

Online peer-assessment quality control: A proactive measure, validation study, and sensitivity analysis

Despite the generally positive learning effects of peer-assessment (PA), there are some undesirable signs and troublesome behavior needed to be addressed (e.g., biased judgments, superficial-level engagement). Anchoring on the concept of individual accountability and assessment validity, while attending to other important elements (including both subjective and objective criteria, individuals’ differentiation ability across the points on the assessment scale, and completion rate), a measure was proposed for PA quality control. This measure consists of four indexes/variables and enables the quantification and appraisal of the peer-assessor’s performance. A validation study involving two classes of undergraduate students (N = 103) engaged in the assessment of peers’ oral presentations was conducted to evaluate the effects of the proposed measure. The statistically significant results confirmed the efficacy of the proposed measure to promote better online PA performance. Additionally, to assess its applicability, sensitivity analysis targeting different aspects of our proposed measure (i.e., different plausible weighting for each of the associated indexes/variables, different correlation values between peers’ and the teacher’s ratings, and different bound values for the scale) was conducted. All significant results of the 281 test cases further substantiated the applicability and efficacy of our proposed measure under various assessment schemes for PA quality control.

Tickling and its effects on the affective states of laying hens

Human-animal interactions may significantly influence the productivity and welfare of animals in the livestock industry. The nature of manipulation influences the physiology and behaviour of animals positively or negatively. To improve animal welfare, it is important to not only reduce unwanted negative states (fear, pain, suffering) but also to induce positive affective states in animals. Tickling has been described in multiple studies to evoke positive affective states in rats. We tested whether a similar form of tactile stimulation induces changes in the valence of affective states of laying hens using an operant judgement bias test. Sixteen laying hens housed in deep litter pens were divided into two groups with different forms of manipulation: a handled group (n = 8) or a tickled group (n = 8). First, the animals were trained to discriminate between the positive (PS, pecks rewarded with mealworms) and negative stimuli (NS, pecks punished with white noise) in a visual discrimination task (Go/NoGo). They were then subjected to the judgement bias test, in which responses to PS, NS and ambiguous middle stimulus (MS) were recorded. All hens successfully learned to discriminate between PS and NS. The treatment did not induce changes in judgement bias test performance. Tickling in the manner we administered it and applied in adulthood, did not appear to be perceived by hens as a positive event. The treatment did not affect judgement because the behavioural assay was not sensitive enough to detect a possible effect, or chickens did not find the tickling as administered to be positive enough. Perhaps the other more playful interactions with hens, a larger dosage or the treatment at an early period of life could have greater impact.

Social-pair judgment bias testing in slow-growing broiler chickens raised in low- or high-complexity environments

Impacts of environmental complexity on affective states in slow-growing broiler chickens (Gallus gallus domesticus) are unknown. Chickens’ performance in judgment bias tests (JBT) can be limited as they are tested individually, causing fear and anxiety. The objectives were to apply a social-pair JBT to assess the effect of environmental complexity on slow-growing broiler chickens` affective states, and assess the impact of fearfulness, anxiety, and chronic stress on JBT performance. Six-hundred Hubbard Redbro broilers were housed in six low-complexity (similar to commercial) or six high-complexity (permanent and temporary enrichments) pens. Twelve chicken pairs were trained (1 pair/pen, n = 24 chickens) using a multimodal approach (visual and spatial cues), with reward and neutral cues of opposing color and location. Three ambiguous cues were tested: near-positive, middle, and near-neutral cues. Approach and pecking behavior were recorded. Eighty-three percent of chickens (20/24) were successfully trained in 13 days. Fearfulness, anxiety, and chronic stress did not impact chickens’ performance. Chickens successfully discriminated between cues. Low-complexity chickens approached the middle cue faster than high-complexity chickens, indicating that they were in a more positive affective state. The environmental complexity provided in this study did not improve affective states in slow-growing broiler chickens compared to a control. A social-pair JBT resulted in excellent learning and testing outcomes in slow-growing broilers.

The effect of incentivization on the conjunction fallacy in judgments: a meta-analysis.

The conjunction fallacy is a classical judgment bias that was argued to be a robust cognitive illusion insensitive to the positive effect of incentivization. We conducted a meta-analysis of the literature (n = 3276) and found that although most studies did not report a significant effect of incentivization, the results across studies show a significant positive effect for incentivization, d = 0.19, with an odds ratio of 1.40 for answering correctly when incentivized. There was no moderating effect of payoff size despite the differences in incentive value between studies. Additionally, the effect was relatively smaller when examining absolute differences in the probability of correct judgment instead of odds ratios, suggesting that it may be partly driven by studies with low baseline performance. These findings join those of other judgment-bias studies to suggest a small but nevertheless robust debiasing effect of incentivization.

When Cognitive Reflection Leads to Less Overall but More Systematic Judgment Bias: The Case of the Base Rates Fallacy.

Although widely used in the judgment under uncertainty literature, the so-called Lawyer-Engineer problem does not have a Bayesian solution because the base rates typically oppose qualitative stereotypical information, which has an undefined diagnostic value. We propose an experimental paradigm that elicits participants' subjective estimates of the diagnosticity of stereotypical information and allows us to investigate the degree to which participants are able to integrate both sources of information (base rates and stereotypical descriptions) according to the Bayesian rule. This paradigm was used to test the hypothesis that the responses (probability estimates) to the Lawyer-Engineer problem from more rational individuals deviate from normative Bayesian solutions in a way that shows smaller but more systematic bias. The results further suggest that the estimates of less rational participants are noisier (less reliable) but may be more accurate when aggregated across several problems.

Numeracy, gist, literal thinking and the value of nothing in decision making.

The onus on the average person is greater than ever before to make sense of large amounts of readily accessible quantitative information, but the ability and confidence to do so are frequently lacking. Many people lack practical mathematical skills that are essential for evaluating risks, probabilities and numerical outcomes such as survival rates for medical treatments, income from retirement savings plans or monetary damages in civil trials. In this Review, we integrate research on objective and subjective numeracy, focusing on cognitive and metacognitive factors that distort human perceptions and foment systematic biases in judgement and decision making. Paradoxically, an important implication of this research is that a literal focus on objective numbers and mechanical number crunching is misguided. Numbers can be a matter of life and death but a person who uses rote strategies (verbatim representations) cannot take advantage of the information contained in the numbers because 'rote' strategies are, by definition, processing without meaning. Verbatim representations (verbatim is only surface form, not meaning) treat numbers as data as opposed to information. We highlight a contrasting approach of gist extraction: organizing numbers meaningfully, interpreting them qualitatively and making meaningful inferences about them. Efforts to improve numerical cognition and its practical applications can benefit from emphasizing the qualitative meaning of numbers in context - the gist - building on the strengths of humans as intuitive mathematicians. Thus, we conclude by reviewing evidence that gist training facilitates transfer to new contexts and, because it is more durable, longer-lasting improvements in decision making.

A color-related bias in offside judgments in professional soccer: A matter of figure-background contrast?

We investigated the impact of outfit colors on the frequency of offside judgments in soccer. In a recent laboratory study, observers made more offside judgments against forwards wearing the outfit of Schalke 04 (blue shirts, white shorts) than against forwards wearing the outfit of Borussia Dortmund (yellow shirts, black shorts), when figure-background luminance contrast was higher for the former team. Here, we investigated whether a similar effect is present in real matches of the German Bundesliga. Study 1 revealed a higher offside score for Schalke 04 than for Borussia Dortmund in matches between these clubs. Studies 2-4 showed higher offside scores for teams wearing a blue/white outfit, and lower offside scores for teams wearing a yellow/black outfit, in their matches against all other Bundesliga teams. Together, results suggest that more offside judgments are made against teams of higher salience, possibly induced by differences in figure-background contrast. Notably, this color-related bias occurred in our study even though a Video-Assistant Referee (VAR) supervised the (offside) decisions of the Assistant Referees.

I “knew” they wouldn’t last: Hindsight bias in judgments of a dating couple

When a romantic relationship ends, individuals often look back and wish they had done things differently. What may seem clear in hindsight, however, is often unclear in foresight. We investigated the effects of outcome knowledge on individuals’ judgments of a dating couple. In Study 1 (181 U.S. college students, 334 U.S. community adults), participants read about a couple with an uncertain relationship trajectory; then, experimental group participants received knowledge about the couple’s status six months down the road as broken up or still together, while control group participants received no outcome knowledge. Individuals who were told the dating couple broke up perceived that outcome as more likely and obvious compared to those who were not given outcome knowledge or who were told the couple stayed together. In Study 2 (262 U.S. college students, 333 U.S. community adults), participants in the experimental conditions received knowledge about the couple’s status six months later as broken up or engaged, while control group participants received no outcome knowledge. In both samples, outcome knowledge of a breakup had a negative effect on individuals’ judgments about the couple. Among community adults, but not among college students, outcome knowledge of an engagement positively affected judgments of the couple. We offer directions for future research and discuss the mechanisms by which hindsight bias might affect evaluations of our own and others’ relationships.