Survival Bias Research Articles

Multistage time-to-event models improve survival inference by partitioning mortality processes of tracked organisms

Advances in tagging technologies are expanding opportunities to estimate survival of fish and wildlife populations. Yet, capture and handling effects could impact survival outcomes and bias inference about natural mortality processes. We developed a multistage time-to-event model that can partition the survival process into sequential phases that reflect the tagged animal experience, including handling and release mortality, post-release recovery mortality, and subsequently, natural mortality. We demonstrate performance of multistage survival models through simulation testing and through fish and bird telemetry case studies. Models are implemented in a Bayesian framework and can accommodate left, right, and interval censorship events. Our results indicate that accurate survival estimates can be achieved with reasonable sample sizes (n≈100+)\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$n\\approx 100+)$$\\end{document} and that multimodel inference can inform hypotheses about the configuration and length of survival stages needed to adequately describe mortality processes for tracked specimens. While we focus on survival estimation for tagged fish and wildlife populations, multistage time-to-event models could be used to understand other phenomena of interest such as migration, reproduction, or disease events across a range of taxa including plants and insects.

Acute kidney injury in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia: a recurrent events analysis

ObjectivesTo estimate risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) and the effect of AKI on mortality in Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia, while taking into account recurrent AKI episodes, competing risks, time-varying variables, and time-varying effects. MethodsWe performed an unplanned analysis using data from a multicentre cohort study of patients with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (SAB). The primary outcome was cumulative incidence of AKI, according to Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes definitions. ResultsWe included 453 patients in this study of whom 194 (43%) patients experienced one or more AKI episodes. Age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.013, 95% CI 1.001–1.024), Charlson comorbidity index (HR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.14), prior chronic kidney disease (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.28–2.42), septic shock (HR 3.28, 95% CI 2.31–4.66), persistent bacteraemia (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.08–2.17), and vancomycin therapy (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.05–3.09) were independently associated with AKI, but flucloxacillin, cefazolin, rifampicin, and aminoglycoside therapy were not. After adjustment for confounders and immortal time bias, AKI was associated with an increased risk of 90-day mortality (HR 4.26, 95% CI 2.91–6.23). DiscussionThe incidence of AKI in SAB is high and a substantial proportion of patients develop recurrent episodes of AKI after recovery. AKI is specifically linked to the use of vancomycin and not to anti-staphylococcal penicillins. The clinical outcome of patients with SAB complicated by AKI is worse than previously estimated.

Early‐life demographic processes do not drive adult sex ratio biases and mating systems in sympatric coucal species

Abstract Sex differences in early‐life survival can drive skewed adult sex ratios (ASR), which play an important role in mating tactics and parental sex roles. Among birds, cuckoos exhibit the largest diversity in mating systems and thus represent an interesting system to study sex‐specific demography. Here we investigate the early‐life survival pathways shaping ASR using long‐term field data and sex‐ and stage‐specific demographic modelling of black coucals and white‐browed coucals—two sympatric Centropus cuckoo species differing in mating system and the extent of sexual size dimorphism. We hypothesized that sexual size dimorphism would lead to differential juvenile mortality due to the greater energy demands and predation risk of the larger sex during maturation. We expected higher early‐life mortality among large‐bodied females in the sexually dimorphic and classically polyandrous black coucal, whereas no bias should exist in the less dimorphic and monogamous white‐browed coucal. Both species had balanced hatching sex ratios, but in black coucals, female survival (μ = 0.64 ± 0.061 SD) was lower during the ‘groundling’ phase (i.e. a flightless 3‐week period following nest departure) than male survival (0.70 ± 0.066). Yet, this sex difference in survival was not strong enough to account for the species' male‐biased ASR where 70% of the adult population is male. In white‐browed coucals, survival during maturation exhibited high inter‐individual variation but lacked clear sex differences, reflecting the emergence of a balanced ASR. In summary, we found no evidence that the strongly male‐biased ASR of black coucals is driven by sex‐specific survival during maturation. In black coucals, the male‐biased ASR must therefore stem from processes occurring later in life: possibly, larger females are more likely to die during migration and/or the recruitment of young females is delayed due to competitive exclusion by more experienced females. Our results differ from studies on shorebirds, in which sex‐specific mortality of precocial young is related to ASR and mating dynamics. Hence, early‐life sex biases in survival of precocial shorebirds cannot be generalized to other taxonomic groups. Factors other than early‐life sex biases in survival are likely to be important in shaping adult sex ratios and the associated mating dynamics and social behaviours in altricial coucals. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Comparative effectiveness of treatment approaches for early invasive breast cancer

BackgroundRandomized controlled trials (RCTs) suggested breast conserving therapy (BCT) and mastectomy have similar survival for early-stage breast cancer, whereas observational studies reported survival advantage for BCT. We aimed to address biases in observational studies to compare the effect of BCT and mastectomy on survival. MethodsWe emulated a target trial using institutional cancer registry. We included adult women diagnosed with early invasive first primary breast tumors ≤ 5 cm between July 2011 and December 2017. We used cloning, censoring, and weighting to estimate risk differences (RDs) and risk ratios (RRs) for all-cause mortality and recurrence or all-cause mortality between BCT and mastectomy (reference). ResultsOur study population comprised 534 observations with breast cancer. Median age was 56 years and 65 % were racial/ethnic minorities. The 8-year RD was 1.5 % (95 % confidence limits [CL]: −7.0 %, 9.8 %) and RR was 1.1 (95 % CL: 0.57, 2.2) for all-cause mortality. Results for recurrence or mortality were similar. ConclusionsOur results suggest that target trial emulation to mitigate selection and immortal-time biases in observational studies may generate estimates that are more compatible with RCTs when comparing the effects of BCT and mastectomy on survival. Studies with longer follow-up and more events are needed to confirm our findings.

Trends in the incidence, mortality and clinical outcomes in patients with ventricular septal rupture following an ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

Despite improvements in outcomes of ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), ventricular septal rupture (VSR) remains a known complication, carrying high mortality. The contemporary incidence, mortality, and management of post-STEMI VSR remains unclear. The National Inpatient Sample database (2009-2020) was used to study trends in admissions and outcomes of post-STEMI VSR over time. Survey estimation commands were used to determine weighted national estimates. There were 2 315 186 ± 22 888 visits for STEMI with 0.194 ± 0.01% experiencing VSR during 2009-2020 in the USA. Patients with VSR were more often older, white, female, and presented with an anterior STEMI; there was no difference in the rates of fibrinolysis. In-hospital mortality was 73.6 ± 1.8%, but only 29.2 ± 1.9 and 10 ± 1.2% received surgical repair and transcatheter repair (TCR), respectively. TCR was associated with higher and surgical repair with lower mortality. Days to surgery were longer for those who survived (5.9 ± 2.75) compared with those who died (2.44 ± 1). In a multivariable analysis, surgical repair at greater than or equal to day 4 was associated with lower in-hospital mortality (odds ratio = 0.39, 95% confidence interval: 0.17-0.88). Mortality in post-STEMI VSR remains high with no improvement over time. Most patients are managed conservatively, and the frequency of surgical repair has decreased, while TCR has increased over the study period. Despite design limitations and survival bias, surgical repair at greater than or equal to 4 days was associated with a lower mortality.

Impact of ibrutinib dose adjustment on TTNT in first-line CLL/SLL: a real-world analysis using target trial emulation

AbstractIbrutinib, a once-daily Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is a standard-of-care first-line (1L) treatment for patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)/small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). Dosing flexibility (adjustment to daily dose of <420 mg/d) with ibrutinib can help prevent recurrence or worsening of adverse events while maintaining long-term efficacy. This study compared time to next treatment among patients with CLL/SLL in the United States initiating 1L single-agent ibrutinib at 420 mg/d (index date) and staying on this dose vs patients with dose adjustment (DA) within 3 to 12 months. Two databases were used: Komodo claims (a majority from community practices) and Acentrus electronic medical records (from academic and nonteaching hospital systems). To account for immortal time bias (patients with DA survived on 1L therapy until DA) and overlap between follow-up time and definition of treatment strategies, a target trial emulation approach was used, in which patients were cloned at index date and contributed follow-up to both treatment strategy arms until deviation from the strategy. Among 3343 patients in Komodo (mean age: 67.5 years; 37.6% female) and 1171 patients in Acentrus (mean age: 70.4 years; 34.6% female) who initiated 1L single-agent ibrutinib 420 mg/d, 18.0% and 19.6%, respectively, had a DA. DA was not associated with an increased risk of having a next treatment in both databases (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]: Komodo: 0.95 [0.80-1.14], Acentrus: 1.14 [0.80-1.62]). These findings suggest that a flexible dosing approach with ibrutinib may be effective in allowing patients to achieve optimal outcomes while remaining on long-term continuous 1L treatment.

Characterization of adverse events in injured patients at risk of hemorrhagic shock: a secondary analysis of three harmonized prehospital randomized clinical trials

BackgroundThe reporting of adverse events (AEs) is required and well defined in the execution of clinical trials, but is poorly characterized particularly in prehospital trials focusing on traumatic injury. In...

Length of treatment after partial or complete remission in immunotherapy for metastatic melanoma: An EUMelaReg real world study.

9531 Background: A significant proportion of patients (pts) with non-resectable melanoma treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) achieve durable remissions, but there is limited data on the optimal duration of ICI therapy in these pts. Therefore, the influence of the duration and maintenance of ICI therapy in pts with a partial (PR) or complete remission (CR) on further outcome was investigated. Methods: Primary objectives was the survival outcome after achieving PR or CR in non-resectable stage III/IV melanoma in relation to baseline prognostic variables and duration of maintenance treatment with ICIs in 1st line. This retrospective study evaluated melanoma cases from the EUMelaReg treatment registry, who achieved a best overall response (BOR) of PR or CR with either single agent anti-PD1 or combined anti-PD1/anti-CTLA4 in 1st line. Cases were stratified according to treatment duration after achieving a PR or CR: &lt; 6 months (M), 6-12 M, &gt; 12 M. To address immortal time bias, cases with early progression were cloned into all respectively compatible strata. These synthetical strata were further analyzed and compared by propensity score weighting, and robust confidence intervals were retrieved by bootstrapping techniques. Results: A total of 1,291 pts were included in the analysis. After cloning, 2,144 cases could be stratified to the synthetical arms of &lt;6 M (26.5%), 6-12 M (31.4%) or &gt;12 M (42.1%) treatment continuation after achieving PR or CR. Adjusted Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that treatment until progressive disease (PD) or &gt; 12 M after remission resulted in prolonged progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) compared to the &lt; 6 M arm (hazard ratio (HR): 0.82 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6-0.9] and HR: 0.67 [95% CI: 0.5-0.9], respectively).This effect was more pronounced in PR (HR 0.66 for OS) than in (HR 0.84 for OS). Treatment for 6-12 M compared to &lt; 6 M also showed a trend towards prolonged PFS and OS (HR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.7-1.1] and HR: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.6-1.1], respectively). Conclusions: This study showed PFS and OS benefit for pts continuing on treatment for &gt; 12 M or until progression after achieving PR or CR compared to pts treated for &lt; 6 M. [Table: see text]

Prognostic significance of real-world (RW) recurrence patterns after resection or ablation of early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC): Insights from the US Medicare population.

e16241 Background: The prognosis after curative-intent resection or ablation of early-stage HCC remains poor, largely due to high rates of recurrence. We aimed to characterize real-world recurrence patterns and determine whether the timing of recurrence was associated with overall survival (OS). Methods: Patients (pts) with early-stage HCC who underwent resection and/or ablation were identified from the SEER-Medicare database (2010-2019). Pts who received liver transplant were excluded. A proxy for recurrence was defined as the receipt of new HCC treatments (surgery, locoregional therapy, systemic therapy) or a secondary malignant neoplasm claim (excluding liver). Pseudo-recurrence dates were assigned to pts without recurrence to match the distribution of time between initial resection/ablation and recurrence in the recurrence cohort, to avoid immortal time bias. Early vs late recurrence was defined as occurring within 1 year vs after 1 year of initial resection/ablation. Primary outcome was OS as measured both from the time of recurrence/pseudo-recurrence and initial resection/ablation. Results: 1,146 eligible pts with early-stage HCC were identified. 63% were male, mean age was 74 yrs, and initial therapy was resection (39%), ablation (50%), or both (11%). 736 (64%) experienced recurrence. Among them, 53% received ablation, 37% surgery, and 11% received both. Median OS from recurrence or pseudo-recurrence was 22 months (mo) vs 67 mo (p &lt; 0.001) for pts with vs without recurrence, respectively. When measured from resection/ablation date, median OS was 39 mo vs 83 mo (p &lt; 0.001). After adjusting for relevant demographic and clinico-pathologic factors, including type of index therapy, in a multivariable Cox regression model, recurrence remained significantly associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.85-2.71; p &lt; 0.001). Among pts who recurred, 380 (52%) had early recurrence and 356 (48%) had late recurrence. Median OS from recurrence was 17 mo vs 30 mo (p &lt; 0.001) for early vs late recurrence, respectively, and 23 mo vs 63 mo when measured from resection/ablation The adjusted HR for the risk of death associated with early recurrence was 1.39 (95% CI: 1.14-1.68; p &lt; 0.001) compared to late recurrence. Other significant prognostic factors associated with reduced OS included larger tumor size ( &gt; = 5cm), greater extent of disease, and poor differentiation (grade III and above). Conclusions: In this study among US Medicare pts, early recurrence within one year after curative-intent treatment of early-stage HCC was significantly associated with decreased OS compared to pts who recur later or without recurrence. This highlights the need for developing and utilizing effective adjuvant therapy regimens to delay or avoid recurrence.

Associations of early adverse events with clinical outcomes in patients with NSCLC treated with EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

e20551 Background: Epidermal growth factor receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitors (EGFR TKIs) constitute the primary treatment modality for EGFR-mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). While efficacious, EGFR TKIs are associated with adverse events (AEs) like dermatologic toxicities, diarrhea, and stomatitis. This study examined the prognostic implications of these on-target AEs in NSCLC patients receiving EGFR TKI therapy. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted, encompassing advanced NSCLC patients treated with first-line EGFR TKIs within two distinct healthcare delivery systems in Taiwan between June 2011 and December 2019. Patients were stratified by TKI type, and those who had received AE reliever medications within 180 days prior to EGFR TKI initiation were excluded. We examined correlations between AEs and key endpoints: time to next treatment (TTNT) and overall survival (OS). To minimize immortal time bias, a landmark analysis at 60 days post-treatment initiation was utilized. On-target AEs were identified based on the issuance of at least two prescriptions for AE management on different dates within this period. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were utilized to evaluate the association between AEs and clinical endpoints, and a random-effects meta-analysis was performed to combine findings from both institutions. Results: Our analysis included 1,605 patients on gefitinib, 848 on erlotinib, and 1,236 on afatinib. Despite potential variations in AE reporting due to prescribing behaviors, the incidence of AE within the first 60 days of treatment was highest for afatinib, particularly with diarrhea (76.7%) and stomatitis (14.9%), followed by erlotinib with notable skin reactions (49.4%). Gefitinib showed the lowest incidence rates across all examined AEs. Of note, afatinib-treated patients who experienced diarrhea within the initial 60 days demonstrated a statistically significant extension in OS (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.60-0.92). No significant prognostic link was found for other AEs in afatinib users or any AEs among users of gefitinib and erlotinib. Sensitivity analyses, incorporating modified AE definitions, corroborated these outcomes. Conclusions: Identifying AEs via prescription records for symptom relief poses methodological challenges and introduces uncertainty. Nevertheless, the occurrence of diarrhea within the first 60 days of therapy emerged as a significant predictor of enhanced OS in EGFR-mutant NSCLC patients receiving afatinib. This finding suggests a potential prognostic implication. The correlation was not evident in patients treated with first-line gefitinib or erlotinib.

Effectiveness of post-COVID-19 primary care attendance in improving survival in very old patients with multimorbidity: a territory-wide target trial emulation.

Older adults with multimorbidity are at high risk of mortality following COVID-19 hospitalisation. However, the potential benefit of timely primary care follow-up on severe outcomes post-COVID-19 has not been well established. To examine the effectiveness of attending general outpatient within 30 days after discharge from COVID-19 on 1-year survival among older adults aged ≥85 years, with multimorbidity. We emulated a target trial using a comprehensive public healthcare database in Hong Kong. The cloning-censoring-weighting technique was used to minimise immortal time bias and confounding bias by adjusting for demographics, hospitalisation duration and ICU admission, baseline chronic conditions, and medication history. The outcome included all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Of 6183 eligible COVID-19 survivors, the all-cause mortality rate following COVID-19 hospitalisation was lower in general out-patient clinics (GOPC) group compared to non-GOPC group (17.1 versus 42.8 deaths per 100 person-year). After adjustment, primary care consultations within 30 days after discharge were associated with a significantly greater 1-year survival (difference in 1-year survival: 11.2%, 95% CI = 8.1% to 14.4%). We also observed better survival from respiratory diseases in the GOPC group. In a sensitivity analysis for different grace period lengths, we found that the earlier participants had a GOPC visit after COVID-19 discharge, the better the survival. Timely primary care consultations after discharge may improve survival following COVID-19 hospitalisation among older adults aged ≥85 years, with multimorbidity. Expanding primary care services and implementing follow-up mechanisms are crucial to support this vulnerable population's recovery and well-being.

Early opioid exposure (EOE) and impaired efficacy in patients with advanced NSCLC treated with PD-L1 inhibition: A pooled post hoc analysis of the POPLAR and OAK trials.

2607 Background: Mechanistic evidence suggests opioid signaling to modulate anti-tumor immunity. Whether opioids exposure may affect outcome of patients (pts) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors is unproven, with clinical evidence being flawed by the negative associative bias between pain and higher burden of disease. Methods: We conducted a post-hoc analysis of the phase 3 OAK (NCT02008227) and phase 2 POPLAR (NCT01903993) trials, which randomized (1:1) pts with advanced NSCLC to receive either atezolizumab or docetaxel. We assessed the differential impact of early opioids exposure (EOE), defined as a minimum of 7 days exposure to any systemic opioids in the time window ranging between -30 to +30 from treatment initiation on efficacy from immunotherapy vs chemotherapy. Pts with ≤30 days survival follow-up were excluded to avoid immortal time bias. Results: After the exclusion of 60 pts, 718 and 686 pts treated with atezolizumab and docetaxel were included, with 341 (47.5%) and 308 (44.9%) pts with EOE respectively (p=0.32) and a median follow-up of 25.5 months (95% CI: 22.8-25.9). Baseline characteristics was balanced across cohorts. In the pooled population, EOE was significantly associated with poorer ECOG-PS (p&lt;0.01) and burden of disease (p&lt;0.01). Univariable analysis showed EOE to be significantly associated with decreased objective response rate (ORR, 11.7% vs 19.8%, p&lt;0.01) and progression free survival (PFS, 1.9 vs 4.2 months, p&lt;0.01) in the atezolizumab cohort, whereas no effect on ORR (17.7% vs 14.4%, p=0.25) and a less pronounced effect on PFS (3.5 vs 4.1 months, p=0.02) was reported for the docetaxel cohort. The pooled multivariable backward stepwise Cox regression used to select variables for validating the results individuated ECOG-PS, histology, tumor burden and race. In multivariable models EOE was associated with decreased ORR (OR 0.58, 95%CI: 0.37-0.92), increased risk of progression (HR 1.47, 95%CI: 1.26-1.72) and death (HR 1.70, 95%CI: 1.42-2.03) in the atezolizumab cohort while no negative impact on ORR/PFS was confirmed among the docetaxel cohort, with a less strong effect on OS (HR 1.44, 95%CI: 1.21-1.72). Multivariable interaction tests confirmed the differential impact of EOE on ORR (p&lt;0.01) and PFS (p&lt;0.01) between treatment modalities (immunotherapy vs chemotherapy). The results were additionally confirmed using IPTW models including all the baseline variables with an optimal distribution (SMD &lt;0.05). Conclusions: EOE is associated with worse response/PFS from immunotherapy but not from chemotherapy exposure, suggesting a possible immune-modulating effect of opioids signaling on anti-tumor immunity. Considering that systemic opioids are the cornerstone of pain management in oncology further research for mitigation strategies, such as the potential use of PAMORAs, is needed. Clinical trial information: NCT02008227 and NCT01903993 .

Correlations between first cycle toxicity and overall survival in patients with rare cancers treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (NCI/SWOG S1609).

2655 Background: Associations between immune-related adverse events (irAEs) from checkpoint inhibitor therapy and outcomes have been previously evaluated, with most prior research finding a positive association between toxicity incidence and overall survival. This prior research has generally reported on more common tumor types. We use a unique data resource of a federally funded basket trial (NCT02834013) for patients with rare cancers to evaluate associations between irAEs and overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in a cohort of patients treated with combination checkpoint inhibitor therapy. Methods: We evaluated irAEs observed in the first cycle (6 weeks) of therapy that were possibly, probably, or definitely related to treatment; irAE grade was based on CTCAEv5. Patients received ipilimumab [1mg/kg intravenously (IV) every 6 weeks] plus nivolumab (240mg IV every 2 weeks). Landmarks methods were used to avoid immortal-time bias; PFS and OS were analyzed from day 43 with patients who died or progressed before that date excluded from analyses. Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate covariate associations. Results: We found that grade 1-2 treatment-related irAEs in the first cycle of therapy were associated with longer OS (multivariable hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval, p-value: 0.61, 0.49-0.75, p&lt;0.001) compared to no treatment-related irAE in the first cycle, while grade 3-4 irAEs were associated with shorter OS (HR=1.41, 95% CI=1.04-1.90, p=0.025). Similar, but weaker, associations were observed with PFS, grade 1-2 treatment-related irAEs: HR=0.83, 95% CI=0.67-1.01, p=0.067 and grade 3-4: HR=1.35, 95% CI=1.02-1.78, p=0.037 compared to no treatment-related irAE in the first cycle. Grade 1-2 dermatologic toxicity were associated with improved OS compared to other grade 1-2 toxicities (HR=0.67, 95% CI=0.52-0.85, p=0.002). There were no significant differences between OS among patients with Grade 1-2 gastrointestinal, metabolic, hepatic, endocrine, and thyroid toxicities and fatigue and other Grade 1-2 toxicities. Conclusions: In this large cohort of patients with rare tumors receiving ipilimumab and nivolumab grade of irAE in the first cycle of therapy was prognostic for survival.

Digital health program for patients with cancer to support self-management: A retrospective real-world analysis.

1570 Background: Sidekick Health’s 13-week digital health program was built to support cancer self-management. It was available free of charge to US-based cancer patients through commercial health insurance. The program includes disease education, mindfulness, medication adherence support, and asynchronous messaging with a care manager. We hypothesized that highly engaged users had reduced symptom frequency and severity, and improved quality of life (QoL) outcomes. Methods: In-app data were analyzed for registrations Aug 2021-Jan 2024: n(registered)=1286; n(retained ≥7 days)=795; n(QoL/symptoms)=284. QoL was defined as self-reported sleep quality, energy and stress (10-point scale, ≤4x/week). Symptoms were also self-reported (10-point scale, ≤7x/week). Generalized linear mixed models for repeated measures were used to investigate QoL, symptom frequency and severity changes over the program. Subgroup analysis: weekly iterative k-means clustering into highly- and less-engaged (based on total active days) to mitigate survival bias. Results: Diverse patients from 37 states engaged: mean age 58.0 years (SD=10.5), 71% female; 49% diagnosed &lt;6 months ago, 36% ≥12 months ago; 23% early-stage disease, 26% stable disease, 6% in remission and 2% terminal; 60% received chemotherapy, 24% radiation therapy, and 21% immunotherapy. Most (61%) registered users were active after 7 days and 29% after 90 days. Less-engaged users reported higher mean baseline weight (85.3kg (SD=26.7)) vs highly engaged (76.9kg (SD=18.3); p=0.010) but were otherwise similar (age, gender, height, time since diagnosis and treatment: p&gt;0.05). For QoL, highly engaged users had improved energy (p=0.013) and sleep (p=0.002), but not stress (p=0.164) vs less engaged. A significant time-group interaction for sleep (p&lt;0.001) showed highly engaged users had better sleep, and larger improvements over time vs less-engaged. Overall, users reported fewer symptoms over the program (IRR (95% CI)=0.965 (0.953, 0.978), p&lt;0.001). Symptom frequency decreased significantly for stress (p=0.034) and nausea (p=0.003), but not numbness (p=0.320) or fatigue (p=0.530). Highly engaged users’ symptom severity had a downward trajectory, compared with less-engaged, for fatigue (p=0.044) and nausea (p=0.001), but not stress (p=0.234) or numbness (p=0.680). Conclusions: Theprogram was accessed by a broad patient group and retention was high. Highly engaged users reported improved QoL (energy, sleep) and reduced symptom severity (fatigue, nausea). Total symptom frequency was reduced over the program, as well as for stress and nausea specifically. These findings indicate digital self-management is not only achievable for patients with cancer, but that higher engagement may improve patient-reported outcomes.

Determinant factors of banking profitability: an application of quantile regression for panel data

This study examines the determinants of bank profitability using a quantile regression approach, offering insights into factors affecting banks across different percentiles of profitability. Utilizing a comprehensive database from Orbis covering 1200 top-market institutions across 101 countries, the research uniquely employs dynamic panel quantile regression while addressing sample survival bias. Our findings highlight that bank size and capital adequacy negatively impact profitability, whereas market value exerts a positive influence on higher profitability banks. Credit risk affects profitability differently across levels of profitability, and inflation rate shows significance only for higher profitability banks. The study contributes to the existing literature by offering valuable insights into the factors determining bank profitability and how they behave at different percentiles in the sample, suggesting the importance of bank efficiency and competition in promoting economic growth.

Vining in the Blind: The Perils of Survivorship Bias

Survivorship bias frequently engenders an inclination to disproportionately concentrate on instances of achievement while inadvertently disregarding the less conspicuous instances of failure; within the realm of new enterprises, where aspirations for achievement permeate, this cognitive bias can engender excessive self-assurance and disregard for the genuine obstacles at hand. This article examines the prevalence of survivorship bias in the context of startups when most newly established enterprises experience failure. It also underscores the significance of mitigating survivorship bias by drawing upon historical and present business illustrations. This study delves into the narrative of Vine, a social media platform that, despite its initial potential, fell short of attaining the level of success achieved by its counterparts. This case study highlights the importance of examining successful and unsuccessful initiatives to develop a comprehensive grasp of the obstacles and possibilities within the realm of entrepreneurship. Moreover, survivorship bias has implications that extend beyond the realm of startups and can significantly impact decision-making processes inside financial institutions. This is particularly evident in evaluating investment groups, where performance assessments sometimes exclusively consider the entities that have managed to survive. Consequently, this approach has the potential to introduce a bias that may lead to an excessively optimistic interpretation of the data. This paper proposes the adoption of a complete methodology that considers both successful and unsuccessful cases in order to enhance decision-making in the field of entrepreneurship, thereby mitigating the potential biases associated with survivorship bias.

Can Chinese herbal medicine offer feasible solutions for newly diagnosed esophageal cancer patients with malnutrition? a multi-institutional real-world study

BackgroundEsophageal cancer (EC) is a major cause of cancer-related mortality in Taiwan and globally. Patients with EC are highly prone to malnutrition, which adversely affects their prognosis. While Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is commonly used alongside conventional anti-cancer treatments, its long-term impact on EC patients with malnutrition remains unclear.MethodsThis study utilized a multi-center cohort from the Chang Gung Research Database, focusing on the long-term outcomes of CHM in EC patients with malnutrition between 1 January 2001, and 31 December 2018. Patients were monitored for up to 5 years or until death. Overall survival (OS) rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Overlap weighting and landmark analysis were employed to address confounding and immortal time biases. Additionally, the study analyzed prescription data using a CHM network to identify key CHMs for EC with malnutrition, and potential molecular pathways were investigated using the Reactome database.ResultsEC patients with malnutrition who used CHM had a higher 5-year OS compared with nonusers (22.5% vs. 9% without overlap weighting; 24.3% vs. 13.3% with overlap weighting; log-rank test: p = 0.006 and 0.016, respectively). The median OS of CHM users was significantly longer than that of nonusers (19.8 vs. 12.9 months, respectively). Hazard ratio (HR) analysis showed a 31% reduction in all-cause mortality risk for CHM users compared with nonusers (HR: 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.50–0.94, p = 0.019). We also examined 665 prescriptions involving 306 CHM, with Hedyotis diffusa Willd. exhibiting the highest frequency of use. A CHM network was created to determine the primary CHMs and their combinations. The identified CHMs were associated with the regulation of immune and metabolic pathways, particularly in areas related to immune modulation, anti-cancer cachexia, promotion of digestion, and anti-tumor activity.ConclusionThe results of this study suggest a correlation between CHM use and improved clinical outcomes in EC patients with malnutrition. The analysis identified core CHMs and combinations of formulations that play a crucial role in immunomodulation and metabolic regulation. These findings lay the groundwork for more extensive research on the use of CHM for the management of malnutrition in patients with EC.

#2576 Effect of dialysis versus conservative care on all-cause mortality in older patients with advanced CKD: nationwide Swedish cohort study

Abstract Background and Aims Conservative care is emerging as an alternative to dialysis in older patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, high-quality evidence comparing the effect of dialysis versus conservative care on patient survival is lacking. Previous observational studies suffered from avoidable biases, such as immortal time bias and lead time bias, and adjusted for limited confounders. This study aimed to assess the effects of dialysis versus conservative care on mortality in older patients with advanced CKD. Method The target trial emulation framework was used to design and analyze this observational study. We conducted a nationwide observational cohort study using data from the Swedish Renal Registry between 2007-2021. We included all nephrologist-referred patients with eGFR &amp;lt; 20 ml/min/1.73 m2 who had a registered decision for dialysis or conservative care. Eligible patients were required to be ≥ 65 years with a Davies Comorbidity Score ≥ 2 or ≥ 80 years. The primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust for 50 baseline confounders, including demographics, comorbidities, medication use, blood pressure, laboratory measurements, hospitalizations, and calendar year. Patients in the non-overlapping region of the propensity score distribution were excluded since they had an absolute indication for dialysis or conservative care. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate intention-to-treat hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to estimate absolute risks. Additionally, we calculated the 5-year restricted mean survival times (RMST) and the 5-year RMST difference between dialysis and conservative care arms. To test the robustness and consistency of our main results, we performed a subgroup analysis in patients aged ≥80. Results Of 2834 eligible patients, 1903 had a registered choice for dialysis and 931 for conservative care. The median age was 81 years, 36.1% were female and median eGFR was 13.1 ml/min/1.73 m2. During the 5-year follow-up period, 29 conservative care patients started dialysis and 430 patients died before starting dialysis. After weighting, all confounders were balanced (standardized mean difference &amp;lt; 0.10). Compared to dialysis, conservative care was associated with a higher absolute 5-year risk of death (91.8% vs. 74.1%), corresponding with an absolute risk difference of 17.6% (95% CI 13.3%-21.9%) (Fig. 1). The adjusted hazard ratio for conservative care vs. dialysis was 2.3 (95% CI 2.0-2.6). The 5-year restricted mean survival times were 34.8 (95% CI 33.2-37.3) months for dialysis and 21.5 (95% CI 19.4-23.6) months for conservative care groups. The 5-year RMST difference was 13.3 months (95% CI 10.8-16.6), meaning that dialysis patients would live on average 13.3 months longer over a 5-year follow-up period than conservative care patients (Table 1). The results were consistent among people ≥ 80 years (adjusted HR 2.2, 95% CI 1.9-2.5; 5-year RMST difference 9.4 months, 95% CI 7.2-13.9). Conclusion In older patients with advanced CKD under nephrologist care, conservative care was associated with a higher risk of mortality than dialysis. These findings could improve the shared decision-making process with patients on the choice of kidney failure treatment.

#1287 Duration of sodium zirconium cyclosilicate treatment and continuation of RAASi therapy after a hyperkalaemia episode

Abstract Background and Aims Renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitor (RAASi) therapy is foundational in the management of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure (HF) but increases the risk of hyperkalaemia (HK). Current guidelines recommend continuation of RAASi therapy while managing risk of HK using novel potassium binders, such as sodium zirconium cyclosilicate (SZC). This study describes the likelihood of continued RAASi therapy after a HK episode by SZC treatment duration in routine clinical practice across three countries. Method This observational study used contemporary data from healthcare registries and claims in the US, Japan and Spain, and included non-dialysis patients diagnosed with CKD and/or HF who initiated outpatient treatment with SZC while on RAASi therapy. The duration of SZC treatment and continuation of RAASi therapy were described using the Kaplan–Meier method. The association between time on SZC treatment and continuation of RAASi therapy is being analysed by applying Hernàn's randomised trial emulation approach (using cloning, censoring and weighting) to avoid the risk of immortal time bias. A weighted Kaplan–Meier method with bootstrapping will be used to estimate the likelihood of continued RAASi treatment at, e.g. 180 days by SZC treatment duration strategy, e.g. 1–30, 31–60 days, etc. The corresponding association will be evaluated using the z-test where the estimated probabilities are compared between strategies. Results This study included 4008 patients who initiated outpatient treatment with SZC, across the US (3137), Japan (655) and Spain (216). For the US, Japan and Spain, respectively, mean age was 72.9, 76.0 and 72.6 years; 54.4%, 62.9% and 58.3% were male; 95.8%, 71.9% and 94.4% had CKD; and 39.8%, 79.1% and 36.1% had HF. In the US, 31.5% (95% CI 29.8–33.2%) were treated with SZC for at least 60 days, and 14.4% (95% CI 13.1–15.8%) were treated for at least 120 days. Among US patients still on SZC treatment at 120 days, 84.0% (95% CI 81.2–86.8%) remained on RAASi therapy at that time, while the corresponding value for all SZC initiators, including those who discontinued SZC earlier, was 65.5% (63.7–67.3%). In Japan, 32.2% (95% CI 28.6–36.2%) were treated with SZC for at least 120 days and, of these, 92.3% (95% CI 89.3–95.4%) remained on RAASi therapy at that time. Among all SZC initiators (including the early discontinuers), 78.4% (95% CI 75.1–81.8%) remained on RAASi therapy at 120 days. In Spain, most patients (78.0% [95% CI 72.2–84.2%]) were treated with SZC for at least 120 days, and 84.6% (95% CI 79.4–90.2%) of these patients remained on RAASi therapy at that time. Analyses of the likelihood of continued RAASi treatment by SZC treatment duration strategy using Hernàn's approach are currently ongoing and will be presented at the congress. Conclusion This study provides contemporary insights into the management of HK with the novel potassium binder SZC across three different countries and demonstrates that duration of SZC treatment is positively associated with continued guideline-directed RAASi therapy after a HK episode.

#2533 Real-world challenges associated with the use of systemic glucocorticoids in a US IgAN cohort

Abstract Background and Aims Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) is the most common primary glomerular disease and up to 50% of patients progress to kidney failure within 10-20 years. Until early 2022, management of IgAN was primarily focused on supportive care. As outlined in the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines, patients at high risk of progressive chronic kidney disease despite maximal supportive care can be considered for a 6-month course of systemic glucocorticoids (SGC), although important risks of toxicity and contraindications must be considered. There is currently limited real-world evidence describing the impact of the use of SGC on treatment‑emergent toxicity and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in patients with IgAN. We report the incidence of adverse events (AEs) commonly associated with SGC, as well as HCRU rates and costs, in a real-world cohort of IgAN patients, comparing new initiators of SGC with patients who have never initiated SGC. Method This non-interventional, retrospective cohort study was conducted in the TriNetX Dataworks - United States of America Network, a database of de-identified, patient-level electronic medical records (EMR) of approximately 100 million patients. The cohort was selected from a total of 19, 687 patients with IgAN, identified using proxy ICD‑10 codes N02.8 (recurrent and persistent hematuria with other morphologic changes) or N04.1 (nephrotic syndrome) between January 1, 2011, and May 4, 2022. Eligible patients were required to have: an incident diagnosis of IgAN with the same diagnosis within 30-180 days; at least 12 months of EMR history available prior to and after initial IgAN diagnosis; not experienced kidney failure prior to or on the initial date of IgAN diagnosis; and not received SGC prior to the date of diagnosis. Data assessed included demographic and clinical characteristics, IgAN-directed medications, AEs, and HCRU. To promote balance between cohorts, new initiators of SGC (dexamethasone, prednisone, prednisolone, methylprednisolone) were matched with patients who did not receive SGC using a propensity score (PS) approach based on their characteristics at diagnosis. To avoid immortal-time bias, the index date was set as the time of SGC initiation in patients in the SGC cohort; for the non-SGC cohort, a pseudo-index date was assigned using the same lag from diagnosis to index date as their 1:1 PS-matched patient in the SGC cohort. Differences in the cumulative incidence of individual AEs were analyzed using the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test, and differences in HCRU rates and costs were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Results After implementing the PS approach, the final analysis included 802 patients (401 PS-matched pairs), with a mean age of 41.2 years and 55% being male. Median duration of follow-up was 3.5 and 3.1 years for the SGC and non-SGC cohorts, respectively. Of AEs that occurred in at least ten of the 802 patients, patients who received SGC experienced a significantly increased incidence of all AEs except for fractures, new onset of diabetes, and reported onset of glaucoma (Table 1). Patients who received SGC had a 12-fold increased incidence of severe infections requiring hospitalization compared with the non-SGC cohort. Annualized mean HCRU rates and costs were significantly greater across all HCRU types for patients who received SGC vs those who did not receive SGC, including an 8-fold increase in inpatient visits, a 4-fold increase in emergency department admissions, and twice as many ambulatory visits (Fig. 1). Results were consistent when the cohort was restricted to patients with IgAN identified using only the ICD-10 code N02.8 (recurrent and persistent hematuria with other morphologic changes). Conclusion The findings of this real-world analysis demonstrate significant side effects and costs for IgAN patients treated with SGC compared with patients not treated with SGC, underscoring the recommendation in the 2021 KDIGO guidelines to carefully consider treatment-emergent toxicity before treating IgAN patients with SGC.