Good Predictor Of Success Research Articles

Microevolution in an Electronic Microcosm

The evolution of microbial populations in simple environments such as chemostats is still not fully understood. The classical interpretation of adaptation involves a process of successive substitution whereby a new dominant genotype arises by mutation from the genotype previously dominant and spreads more or less rapidly through the population until it is nearly fixed. The population is, thus, nearly uniform most of the time. Some observations suggest that the process may be more complicated, but it remains formidably difficult to assemble the phylogeny of an evolving culture in sufficient detail to be sure. We report experiments with an electronic microcosm inhabited by self‐replicating computer programs whose phylogeny can be rendered completely transparent. The physiology of these programs is different in many respects from that of organic creatures, but their population biology has many features in common, including a very extensive, if not unbounded, range of variation. Experimental populations evolved through point mutations (many of which were quasi‐neutral when they were viable) and through rearrangements that led to a change in genome size and often had large effects on fitness. As a general rule, smaller genomes execute fewer instructions in order to replicate, the rate of replication increases as the number of instructions executed declines, and the rate of replication in pure culture is a good predictor of success in mixture. When cultured with CPU (central processing unit) time as the sole limiting resource, smaller genomes, therefore, evolve as a correlated response to natural selection for faster replication. The genetic basis of adaptation was highly contingent and always differed in replicate experiments. The pattern of evolution depends on mutation rate. At low mutation rates of 0.01 per genome per generation or less, we observed classic periodic selection, with each dominant genotype descending from the previous dominant and rising to a frequency of 0.8 or more. At higher mutation rates of about 0.1 per genome per generation, the most abundant genotypes rarely exceeded a frequency of about 0.4, and rare genotypes present in a few copies comprised a large part of the population. New dominant genotypes did not usually descend directly from previous dominants but, instead, from one of the many rare or moderately abundant genotypes. We suggest that the conventional chemostat paradigm may hold only as a special case at very low mutation rates and that the dynamics and diversity of evolving populations, even in the simplest conditions, may be more complex than is usually recognized. Artificial genetic autoadaptive systems are likely to be useful in constructing theory for situations that lie beyond the boundary of conventional population genetics.

When the Tail Wags the Dog

Perceptions of Learning and Grade Orientation in, and by, Contemporary College Students and Faculty According to most college catalogues, the major purpose of higher education is to provide students with access to significant ideas, innovative technologies, and new ways of thinking. Though such goals are advocated in formal and promotional materials, there is often a strong subtext emphasizing the significance of grades and grade point averages (Becker, Geer, & Hughes, 1968; Goulden & Griffin, 1997). One consequence to this joint emphasis is that students may construe their college careers in terms of the learning they attain, the grades they receive, or some combination of the two. Although learning for its own sake is publically offered as the desired outcome of higher education, some students come to focus on attaining a good grade even to the exclusion of learning course material; for example, when a student hires someone to write a term paper. Grades, rather than learning, become the primary objective of many students; the appearance of achievement becomes more important than the achievement itself. To evaluate systematically the effects learning orientation and grade orientation have on contemporary college students, Eison, Pollio, and Milton (1982) developed the LOGO II scale. Most investigations using the LOGO II report low negative correlations between learning orientation (LO) and grade orientation (GO) indices, suggesting that the orientations are relatively independent. [1] Factor analytic studies of LOGO II reveal that learning-oriented students regard college largely as an opportunity to acquire new information that is personally relevant and intrinsically rewarding. In addition, students producing high LO scores are found to possess a wide variety of positive educational attributes, including effective study skills, low levels of test anxiety, above average reasoning abilities, and high levels of self motivation. On the other hand, grade-oriented students view college as a crucible in which they must endure continual testing and evaluation. Students producing high GO scores are also found to have poor study habits, high test anxiety, below average Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, and low grade point averages (Beck, Rorrer-Woody, & Pierce, 1991; Milton, Pollio, & Eison, 1986). High learning-oriented and high grade-oriented individuals thus seem to represent two different student types, not only in terms of a relative emphasis on grades and learning but also in terms of other personal and educational characteristics (for additional results, see Eison & Pollio, 1985; Pollio, 1992). Instructor attitudes toward grades and learning also may be expected to affect the ways in which students experience themselves and the college environment: that is, classroom practices of different instructors may promote (or de-emphasize) grades or learning. To evaluate instructor orientations toward learning and grades, Eison, Janzow, and Pollio (1993) developed a companion questionnaire to the LOGO II, the LOGO F scale. As in the case of LOGO II, correlational studies indicate a low, but statistically significant, negative relationship between LO and GO scores on LOGO F. Factor analytic studies found that learning-oriented instructors tend to be more flexible in their teaching and evaluation practices, set a higher premium on class discussion, and place greater value on cooperation between students than do less learning-oriented instructors. High grade-oriented professors, on the other hand, tend to believe that grades are good predictors of success in later life, are very concerned about grade inflation , teach to the best and brightest, and value grades as incentives (Eison, Janzow, & Pollio, 1993; Pollio, 1992). Learning and grade orientations also would seem to contribute to the ways in which students think of themselves, their professors, and the ways in which students and professors interact with one another. …

Laparoscopic splenectomy for idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). A five-year experience.

Laparoscopic splenectomy (LS) has rapidly become the preferred surgical treatment for idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP), but its long-term efficacy for this disorder is unproved. This report documents the author's 5-year experience with, and long-term follow-up of, LS for ITP. Between September 1992 and September 1997, 30 patients with clinical ITP and intractable thrombocytopenia were referred as surgical candidates. Two of them (7%) were converted to open, and the other 28 underwent successful LS. The operative approach evolved from a supine lithotomy to right lateral decubitus position, and the harmonic scalpel became the primary dissection tool in the later part of the study. The 28 successful LS patients constituted the study group. Accessory spleens were identified and resected in six patients (21%). Surgical times and blood loss averaged 2.4 h and 170 cc, respectively. The typical hospital stay was 2 days. Initial reversal of thrombocytopenia and ultimate cessation of oral steroids was achieved in 25 of 28 patients (89%). There were no deaths, but two patients had major complications (bleeding and pneumonia). All but two patients experienced a return to full activity and/or employment by 3 weeks post-LS. In the three cases that failed LS, none had residual splenic tissue on subsequent radionuclide scan. Long-term follow-up (2-60 months) was obtained in 22 of 28 patients (79%). The only death (at 13 months) resulted from oncologic disease. Twenty-one patients had lasting clinical remission of ITP. A positive preoperative response to oral steroids was the best predictor of success. This 5-year experience with LS supports its use for the surgical treatment of ITP. The procedure is safe and efficacious, resulting in brief hospitalization, minimal recovery time, and excellent long-term results.

Defense or Offense? Which is the Better Predictor of Success for Professional Football Teams?

Data from the 1997 National Football League (NFL) regular season were analyzed to assess whether components that best predicted success tend to be associated more with offense or defense. Analyses indicated that the total number of points conceded by the defense in the regular season explained more variance in success (73.5%) than did the number of points scored by the offense (14.7%). When turnover differential, i.e., the difference between the number of fumbles and interceptions gained by a team's defense and the number of fumbles and interceptions given away by same ream's offenses, was included in the model, it explained 43.4% of the variance in success. These and other findings suggest that, outside the 20-yd. zone, the attainments of the defense are more important than are the offensive attainments in predicting the success of NFL teams. Replications of these analyses are recommended using data from previous seasons and including other variables.

Severe preeclampsia remote from term: Labor induction or elective cesarean delivery?

Objectives: The study’s objectives were as follows: (1) to determine the rate of vaginal delivery after labor induction in severe preeclampsia remote from term and (2) to determine potential predictors of success. Study Design: Retrospective chart review was conducted on live-born singleton pregnancies complicated by severe preeclampsia and delivered at 24 to 34 weeks’ gestation from January 1, 1992, to December 31, 1996. Exclusion criteria included eclampsia, presence of labor or spontaneous rupture of membranes on admission, and complication of pregnancy by an ultrasonographically detected fetal congenital anomaly. Patients were divided into 3 groups: elective cesarean delivery without labor, cesarean delivery after labor induction, and vaginal delivery after labor induction. Statistical analyses included multiple logistic regression, the Student t test, the χ 2 test, and the Mann-Whitney test. P ≤ .05 was considered significant. Results: A total of 306 charts were reviewed. Among these, 161 patients (52.6%) underwent elective cesarean delivery without labor; the 2 most common indications were unfavorable cervix (33.5%) and malpresentation (22.4%). The remaining 145 patients (47.4%) underwent labor induction with a 48.3% rate of vaginal delivery after induction, ranging from 31.6% at ≤28 weeks’ gestation to 62.5% at >32 weeks’ gestation. The most common indication for cesarean delivery after induction, in 50.7% of the cases, was nonreassuring fetal heart rate. The median Bishop score was significantly higher (3 vs 2, P = .004) and the total hospital stay was significantly shorter in the vaginal delivery after induction group than in the cesarean delivery after induction group. However, there were no significant differences between the 2 groups in use of cervical ripening agents, gestational age at delivery, birth weight, 5-minute Apgar score, or postpartum endometritis. After exclusion of cesarean deliveries performed for malpresentation, there was no statistically significant difference in classic incision rates between the elective cesarean delivery without labor and cesarean delivery after induction groups (13.6% vs 6.8%; P = .137). According to logistic regression analysis, only the Bishop score was significantly associated with a successful induction (odds ratio 1.38, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.71). Gestational age reached marginal significance (odds ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 0.89-1.89). Conclusions: (1) Labor induction should be considered a reasonable option for patients with severe preeclampsia at ≤34 weeks’ gestation because 48% of patients given the chance were successfully delivered vaginally. (2) The Bishop score on admission is the best predictor of success, although the chance of successful labor induction increases with advancing gestational age. (Am J Obstet Gynecol 1998;179:1210-3.)

The evolution of femoral shaft plating technique.

There has been an evolution in the AO/Association for the Study of Internal Fixation plating technique during the past 3 decades that includes the use of longer plates and fewer plate screws, fewer lag screws outside the plate, fewer unicortical screws at the plate periphery, and greater use of the 95 degrees blade plate to achieve balanced fixation of proximal and distal shaft fractures. These changes reflect an evolving technique of plate osteosynthesis that emphasizes indirect reduction techniques, biologic internal fixation, and improved biomechanics. Outcome data suggest that there has been an improvement with time that is reflected by shorter time to union, a decrease in the frequency of implant failures, delayed unions, nonunions, malunions, number of reoperations, and in overall rate of failure. The best predictor of success was the length of plate by logistic regression analysis. With the evolution of plating techniques and a greater emphasis on biology of fracture healing, the incidence of complications and failures has decreased after femoral shaft plating. Plate osteosynthesis of the femoral shaft is particularly advantageous in many situations and can be quite successful (87% success rate in Group III).

Pilot Selection in the Norwegian Air Force: A Validation and Meta-Analysis of the Test Battery

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the test battery currently used for pilot selection to the Norwegian Air Force. Selection is currently based on a standard battery of 20 different psychological tests as well as on medical tests and on an interview by a licensed psychologist. First, two-factor analyses were conducted to examine the relation between the tests in the battery. Then, a correlation study was conducted to evaluate the predictive validity of the tests against two criteria of pilot performance collected during the basic training period. Finally, a small-scale meta-analysis of previous validation studies in Norway was conducted. The best predictors of success in training, based on the meta-analysis, were Instrument Comprehension (r = .29), Mechanical Principles (r = .23), and Aviation Information (r = .22)

Endoscopic treatment of reflux by subureteric collagen injection: critical review of 5 years' experience.

In the past decade, subureteric endoscopic injection of Teflon or collagen has been propagated as a safe and successful treatment for vesicoureteral reflux. In our center, from 1990 through 1995, 118 children and 5 adults with reflux and recurrent urinary tract infections were injected with cross-linked bovine collagen in an open, prospective study. Efficacy and safety were assessed 6 and 12 months after injection, and long-term (> or =3 years) results were available in 78 cases. The overall success rate was 58% (64% of ureteral units) free from reflux at 12 months and 54% (58%) after 3 years. Analysis of anatomic, urodynamic, and technical features showed the grade of reflux to be the best predictor of success or failure. When only primary low- and middle-grade reflux, without concomitant anatomic disorders, is considered, the long-term success rate rose to 69% (74% of ureteral units). In conclusion, subureteric collagen injection cannot ultimately replace the highly effective surgical reimplantation. However, the procedure offers a minimally invasive alternative in selected cases of mild reflux when conservative management is inadequate.

Sexual selection for small size in male mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki)

In many poeciliid fishes, large males which court females coexist with small males which sneak–copulate. It is unclear whether these two tactics represent two evolutionarily stable strategies or if sneaking is a conditional strategy adopted by small, unattractive males. We studied the success of sneaky copulation by looking for sperm in the gonoduct of females after they were kept for 48 h with a male. A logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of a female being inseminated increased with female length and decreased with male length. The length of the male relative to that of the female was the best predictor of success. This result was confirmed using virgin females, thereby excluding any possible confounding effect due to the release of sperm from previous copulations. Sperm counts suggested that large males do not compensate for their reduced copulatory success by releasing larger sperm numbers. Behavioural data indicate that the advantages to small males are twofold: they have a greater chance to approach females from behind without being detected, and manoeuvre better when inserting the gonopodium into the female9s gonoduct. The selective advantage of small size might explain male dwarfism in poeciliids. Our results also suggest that small males adopting the sneaky tactic may be as successful as large males adopting courtship, and that alternative mating strategies may be maintained by negative density–dependent selection.

Changing clinicians' behaviors in an academic medical center: does institutional commitment to total quality management matter?

The purpose of this project was to determine whether changing clinicians' behaviors to reduce costs in a large academic medical center is facilitated by the prior existence of a total quality management program. Ten teams, made up primarily of clinicians, were charged with devising strategies for altering specific clinical behaviors to reduce costs without detriment to quality of care. Half the teams followed the center's total quality management approach. Team success was assessed by how well three key tasks were completed: problem definition, design of plan of action, and plan implementation. Two teams achieved outright successes, three had outright failures, and five were in between. Adherence to a total quality management approach was not found to be associated with team success. A much better predictor of success was the level of involvement and support by clinicians and managers; because that factor is largely controlled by institutional incentives, those incentives may need to be realigned before the effectiveness of a total quality management approach can be properly evaluated.

One-Stage Revision of Total Hip Arthroplasty for Deep Infection

One hundred eighty-three total hip arthroplasties were revised for deep infection in a 1-stage procedure using antibiotic containing acrylic cement and systemic perioperative antibiotics. At an average followup of 7 years 9 months, 154 (84.2%) patients were free of infection. The remaining 29 (15.8%) patients had evidence of persistent infection. The quality of pain relief immediately after a revision for deep infection often is a good predictor of success.

The world in 2020: power, culture and prosperity

In The World in 2020, acclaimed commentator and best-selling author Hamish McRae paints a vivid competitive landscape in which culture and values will be the new sources of advantage for the industrialized nations. In the year 2020, all having embraced market capitalism, the North American, European and East Asian countries will be engaged in fierce economic competition. With each nation increasingly able to imitate the others, innovations will cross borders within more days and weeks, removing technological prowess as a source of sustained advantage. McRae sees the old motors for growth - land, capital and natural resources - being replaced by more qualitative assets - quality, organization, motivation and self-discipline of the people. Everywhere, governments will take a less active role in the social and economic life of the nation. In such a world, the best predictor of success will be how a nation strikes a proper balance between creativity and intellect on the one hand, and social responsibility on the other. Thus the leading world economic powers of the next generation are just as likely to include China and Australia as the United States and Japan.

An Empirical Investigation of the MBA Admission Criteria for Nontraditional Programs

Abstract This study reviews the admission criteria for a “nontraditional” MBA program by investigating a group of students who were employed full time while pursuing the MBA degree. The instructional method combined individual assignments with two intensive weekend class meetings on the 3rd and 6th weekends of each course. These students would normally have been classified as part-time students enrolling for either one or two courses per term. Our major finding is that the combination of GMAT score, undergraduate GPA, and work experience are the best predictors of success for students in this program. However, for students admitted to the program as exceptions to the normal admission formula, GMAT score, undergraduate institution, and undergraduate major were the best predictors of success.

Prognosticating factors in acetabular development following reduction of developmental dysplasia of the hip.

A number of predictors that may influence acetabular development after reduction were studied in 75 hips with developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH). Seventy-nine percent of the hips had satisfactory results of Severin group I or II, and 21% had unsatisfactory results. The best predictor of success in a unilateral case is the center-head distance discrepancy (CHDD) measurement at 1 year follow-up. Ninety-six percent of hips with a CHDD of < or = 6% had satisfactory results, whereas 78% with a CHDD > 6% had unsatisfactory results. This study also confirms that age at reduction and significant improvement in the acetabular index in the first year after reduction are important predictors.

Teaching algorithmic problem solving or conceptual understanding: Role of developmental level, mental capacity, and cognitive style

It has been shown previously that many students solve chemistry problems using only algorithmic strategies and do not understand the chemical concepts on which the problems are based. It is plausible to suggest that if the information is presented in differing formats, the cognitive demand of a problem changes. The main objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which cognitive variables, such as developmental level, mental capacity, and disembedding ability explain student performance on problems which: (1) could be addressed by algorithms or (2) require conceptual understanding. All conceptual problems used in this study were based on a figurative format. The results obtained show that in all four problems requiring algorithmic strategies, developmental level of the students is the best predictor of success. This could be attributed to the fact that these are basically computational problems, requiring mathematical transformations. Although all three problems requiring conceptual understanding had an important aspect in common (the figurative format), in all three the best predictor of success is a different cognitive variable. It was concluded that: (1) the ability to solve computational problems (based on algorithms) is not the major factor in predicting success in solving problems that require conceptual understanding; (2) solving problems based on algorithmic strategies requires formal operational reasoning to a certain degree; and (3) student difficulty in solving problems that require conceptual understanding could be attributed to different cognitive variables.

Preclinical progress in relation to personality and academic profiles.

One hundred and forty-six (93%) of the University of Wales College of Medicine intake of new students completed a personality questionnaire (Cattell 16PF) on registration in October 1988. The students were divided into four groups depending on their academic progress up to and including 2nd MB BCh. Whereas the majority (73%) encountered no major examination problems, 40 (27%) did experience such difficulties, nine of them serious enough to delay graduation. Fourteen students had left the course, nine of them voluntarily. Academic progress was not significantly related to any of Cattell's personality factors, either primary or second order. Further analyses of established clusters of factors which have previously been associated with problems among students were also shown to be unrelated to the medical students' progress. A profile at entry involving previous degrees, points obtained and number of attempts at A-levels proved to be a much better predictor of success during the preclinical period.

Use and responses to intentional embarrassment

Researchers have noted that embarrassment may be deliberately used to call into question another's presented identity or cause another to appear unpoised (Gross & Stone, 1964; Martin, 1987; Sharkey, 1993; Sharkey & Waldron, 1990). The present study focused on the phenomenon of intentional embarrassment as a strategy for attaining goals. Self‐report data were collected from 1136 persons ranging in age from 18 to 77. Embarrassment was found to be used as a deliberate strategy to attain various goals. Moreover, the goal attempted, as well as the tactic employed, were good predictors of success in achieving one's goal, although no interaction effect was found. Finally, embarrassors’ tactics predicted the responses of embarrassed individuals.

Toefl Performance and Success in a Masters Program in Engineering

Scores on the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL), achieved by 67 Asian graduate students seeking the Master of Science in engineering, were examined in relationship to scores on the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) and success in completing their program of study as measured by final grade point average. Significant correlations (p &lt; .01) were obtained between TOEFL and GRE Verbal (r = .63), GRE Quantitative (r = .30), and GRE Analytical (r = .35) scores. The best predictor of success in graduate study was the Quantitative score from the GRE (r = .32,p &lt; .01).

Many Participants in a Comprehensive Adolescent Mothers' Program Are Self-Sufficient 20 Years Later

The results of a cohort study of 121 black unmarried teenage mothers followed up after 20 years in 1987 and 1988 are summarized. The mothers had been enrolled in a comprehensive Young Mothers Program in New Haven Connecticut in 1967-69. Out of the original 154 mothers 21 were unlocatable 5 had died and 7 refused. Bivariate multivariate and linear regression analyses were performed to determine the long-term success in terms of employment and education. The results indicated that 62% had achieved success 20 years later. The mean age was 35 years. 82% were economically self-sufficient and 71% had completed high school. Around 67% were unmarried. 72% had suffered financial problems 69% were unsatisfied with their lives and 30% reported being seriously beaten. Religiosity was high with 67% feeling religious 45% attending church and 81% having someone to confide in. In the bivariate analysis the likelihood of success was determined by whether adolescent mothers had attended >60% of the program had 2 or fewer children were still in school at the 26-month postpartum interview and not pregnant again. When confounding variables were controlled for the best predictor of success 20 years later was attending school in the 11th or 12th grades when enrolled in the program. The likelihood of success was 18 times greater than for those completing less schooling. However there is a wide confidence interval (2.30-139.5). Those attending 60% of the life skills classes were 11 times as likely to succeed as those with a lower class attendance. Women returning to school and without a repeat pregnancy were 10 times more likely to achieve success. Women who felt some control over their lives were 5 times more likely and women who scored low on isolation tests were 8 times more likely to achieve success. Having 2 or fewer children indicated a 14 times greater likelihood of success than having 3 or more children. The aim of the program was long-term personal growth and development which necessitated a 20-year follow up. In spite of the 20% loss to follow up and the small sample size it is maintained that short-term targeted spending can produce long-term societal benefits which is supported by the data.

Factors contributing to success in mathematical estimation in preservice teachers: Types of problems and previous mathematical experience

Variables that may affect success in mathematical estimation in preservice elementary teachers were studied. A multiple regression analysis was performed in order to predict success on a 25 problem estimation test. Subjects' answer to the question, “Are you good at math?” was the best predictor of success on the estimation test. Other important variables were college grade point average, years of study of mathematics, and enjoyment of mathematics. Not only were average mathematics grades not related to estimation score, but they were negatively correlated to estimation score. Half the subjects saw problems in an applied format, and half saw the same problems in a computational format. The number of subjects answering problems correctly in the application format was significantly greater than the number of subjects answering questions correctly in the computational format. This result was contradictory to results usually found for finding exact answers with pencil and paper. A reason for greater success on problems in the application format may be related to the fact that the applied problems involved money, a very relevant type of problem in which to quickly estimate an answer.