Beni Mellal Research Articles

Review of the Urinary Schistosomiasis Control in Morocco (1960-2018).

The purpose of this study is to describe the epidemiological profile and evolution of urinary schistosomiasis in Morocco, from the first confirmed case in 1960 until disease elimination, and control snails. During this period, 129,526 cases were recorded in Morocco. A majority of cases were reported in Agadir province (25%), Errachidia (18%), and Beni Mellal (13%). Other cases have been reported in the other provinces. Activities within the National Schistosomiasis Control Programme for more than three decades were focused in priori on screening in schools located in high-risk communities, treatment program, surveillance of snails in water bodies, and mollusciciding. Then, the goal of eliminating the transmission of schistosomiasis has been reached in 2004. Sixteen years later, no indigenous cases were detected in Morocco, and only 25 residual cases (resulting from bilharziasis previously treated) are detected, such as in Tata ( 40%), Errachidia (16%), and (12%) in Marrackesh. Similarly, recent national studies conducted on children and the snail reservoir hosts have indicated that no human and molluscs are currently infected with Schistosoma haematobium. Actually, timely investigation and management of imported cases has been implemented to prevent the reintroduction of the disease. The Ministry of Health is planning to implement final confirmatory surveys before requesting WHO to proceed with the formal verification process.

Geological And Geotechnical Characterization Of The Beni Moussa Perimeter In The Tadla Plain(Morocco)

The Beni Moussa perimeter in the plain of Tadla is located in the Beni Mellal - Khenifra region characterized by the diversity of its relief where the mountain meets the plain through the foothills. Bibliographic studies raise the dominance of limestone formations in the Atlas ranges of this region, and the piedmont accumulates alluvium deposited by rivers, while the plain is filled with mio-plio-quaternary deposits. A series of seven drill holes of various depths, supplemented by pressuremeter measurements every 1.50m of depth using the Menard pressuremeter, was carried out on sites scattered around the perimeter of the Beni Moussa in the plain of Tadla, to validate at first the bibliographic geological models, then to appreciate the bearing capacity of the lithologies revealed. The lithological sections thus revealed an alternation of alluvial deposits, clays and clay loams, deposited on calcareous formations, resulting from the dolomitic and calcareous mountainous debris mobilized following the seasonal temperature’s variation of the region. Moreover, the measured pressurometric ranges characterize a generally high bearing capacity, and reflect the generalized overconsolidation of the facies and soils encountered in the Beni Moussa area, except for the Middle Pleistocene formations, which are mainly characterized by channeled conglomeratic deposits.This study’s datathus reflect a good bearing capacity of the ground formations, capable of supporting the superstructures founded in this perimeter.

Contribution of GIS techniques and pollution indices in the assessment of metal pollution in agricultural soils irrigated with wastewater: case of the Day River, Beni Mellal (Morocco)

Wastewater irrigation and intensive agricultural practices are two of the major sources of soil pollution throughout the world. The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of metal pollution in ground samples collected in the city of Beni Mellal, Morocco due to wastewater in the Day River. We collected 35 samples of agricultural soils at a sampling depth of 0–30 cm. As a first step, all samples were analyzed to determine some of the physicochemical characteristics of the soil samples (organic matter [OM], clay mineralogy [CaCO3], pH, electrical conductivity, texture) and the levels of specific metallic elements (As, Cr, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb, Zn, and Fe). The results revealed that the analyzed soils had a clayey to silty-clay texture and alkaline pH; were rich in OM and carbonates; and had elevated levels of metallic elements (in mg/kg: As, 8.24; Cr, 77.77; Cu, 87.40; Cd, 4.89; Ni, 42.33; Pb, 109.66; Zn, 75.98; Fe: 26,248.18), all of which, with the exception of Ni, were higher than local background values. In addition, the concentrations of Pb and Cd considerably exceeded the limit values set by the World Health Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization. To comprehensively assess the degree of pollution, we calculated a wide range of pollution indices, such as the geoaccumulation index (Igeo), enrichment factor (EF), contamination factors (CF), pollution load index (PLI), and potential ecological risk assessment (RI), using geochemical background values. The results showed that the levels of contamination in the soils under investigation ranged from moderate to high levels, suggesting an anthropogenic source. Analysis of the spatial distribution of the heavy metals showed high concentrations in the center and upstream part of Day River, with concentrations gradually decreasing downstream with the flow of wastewater. Statistical analyses were carried out to identify the relationship between the presence of heavy metals in the soils and the possible sources using principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis methods and the Pearson correlation coefficient. The results of these analyses showed a significant and positive correlation between the presence of all heavy metals, indicating an identical or similar source, and also revealed that the contamination is related to the type of irrigation system, intensive agriculture practices, and soil properties (pH, OM, CaCO3). These results provide valuable geochemical data to support land-use managers, policy-makers, and environmental organizations in their efforts to monitor and decrease the accumulation of heavy metals in soils.

Depression, Anxiety, Self-esteem and Suicide Attempts: Study among High School Students in the Beni Mellal Region of Morocco

In the Moroccan school system, we do not have a real psychological global knowledge of the student. Emotional, educational and even cognitive dimensions often remain unknown. In this context, this study aims to assess the prevalence of depression, self-esteem and anxiety among high school students in the Beni Mellal region of Morocco and to identify if there are gender differences, and to determine a possible link between these parameters (depression, self esteem and anxiety) and suicide attempts. For that, this study was conducted among 200 high school students were randomly selected, aged between 15 and 21 years, belonging to public educational institutions, in the region of BeniMellal in Morocco. Participants were asked to complete a paper version of the questionnaires after the objectives of the study were presented and students were informed of the voluntary and anonymous character of their participation. The results showed a high prevalence of depression, anxiety and suicidal attempts as well as low self-esteem. Girls are more at risk than boys. Depression, anxiety and self-esteem are significantly related to suicide attempts among these students. Future research should continue to find the origins of the mental disorders of these students and the involvement of the school system in their contribution.

The Impact of the Demographic and Socioeconomic Situation of the Family on their Integration into the Margins of the Cities of Beni Mellal Khenifra (Morocco): The Case of the Cities of Beni Mallal and Fquih Ben Salah: تأثير الوضع الديموغرافي والسوسيو اقتصادي للأسرة على اندماجها بهوامش مدن جهة بني ملال خنيفرة (المغرب): حالة مدينتي بني ملال والفقيه بن صالح

The aim of this research is to study the impact of demographic and socioeconomic situation on the integration of families living in the margins of the cities of Beni Mellal and Fquih Ben Salah. The problem of the study was identified in the following question: How does the demographic and socioeconomic situation of the families settled by the margins of Beni Mellal and Fquih Ben Salah affect their level of integration? In order to achieve the objectives of the study and to answer the problem, two methods were adopted comparative methodology and statistical analysis, and the withdrawal of a simple random sample of households; identified in 321 families in Beni Mellal and 231 families in the city of Fquih Ben Saleh, and use the form as a tool for the study. The results of the study showed that most of the heads of households with margins in Beni Mellal and Fuih Ben Saleh are not educated, where in some marginal residential communities exceeded 50%, the results also showed the increase in the number of members of the same family (the number of members of the family sometimes 17 people) and the weak monthly income which Generally less than 1000 Moroccan dirhams (100 US dollars). The results also showed that this situation has negatively affected the integration of these families, especially at the level of connection to the drinking water and electricity network (where the proportion of households without drinking water exceeded 60%, and without electricity 50%) and construction documents such as designs and licenses (in some residential communities) There is not a single dwelling available on these documents), in addition to the low involvement of families in local environmental programs. The study recommended the need to generalize the fight against illiteracy among adults and motivate them to engage in programs monitored by the Moroccan Agency for Combating Illiteracy and Informal Education, and encourage investment in activities related to agriculture and livestock raising in order to raise family income and finally rehabilitate the margins of the two cities with environmental services and strengthen the role of civil society and facilitate administrative procedures Related to construction and thus facilitate the acceleration of family integration.

The ethnobotanical and socio-cultural aspects of common Myrtle (Myrtus communis L.) in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region (Morocco) and socio-cultural aspects of common Myrtle (Myrtus communis L.) in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region (Morocco)

Background: The study of ethnobotany is to create a catalog of medicinal plants in order to preserve the indigenous knowledge and to promote the sustainable exploitation of these plant resources. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ethnobotanical of commercialized medicinal plants (MAPs) focusing on Myrtle species, in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region of Morocco.Methods: A series of ethnobotanical and socio-cultural surveys were conducted among the local population of the study area.Results: The present study has allowed us to reveal that the most of commercialized MAPs are used primarily in the care of the digestive system and the glands attached to the digestive tract. The foliage is the most used part for treatment. Decoction is the most practiced method by the local population. Among the commercialized MAPs there is Myrtle specie that used mainly in hair care and in the treatment of digestive tract abnormalities. The female gender, aged between 40 and 50 years, traditionally uses the commercialized MAPs as well as the Myrtle more than the male gender. Whatever the gender, the illiterate use MAPs more than the educated.Conclusions: This study shows the wealth of knowledge of the local population which has a rudimentary social level. Considering the importance of Myrtle use in Morocco or internationally and following its cosmetic and therapeutic virtues, it is time to raise the awareness and enrich the traditional know-how of this species in the region of Beni Mellal-Khenifra within a framework of sustainable manner.Key words: Myrtus communis L., therapeutic uses, ethnobotany, Beni Mellal- Khenifra region.

A Study related to the management of medical and pharmaceutical wastes in Beni Mellal-Khenifra region: Beni Mellal city as a case of study

After having conducted an investigation about landfill in Beni Mellal city, Medical and Pharmaceutical Wastes (MPWs) are unloaded mixed with household and similar wastes. The objective of the present study is to analyze the management system of medical and pharmaceutical wastes at the level of Beni Mellal city in order to ameliorate the quality of collecting and handling these wastes and consequently minimizing the management costs vis a vis this service. First of all, we have created database concerning the location of health centers (HC). After, we have conducted a survey with the help of a questionnaire in different public and private health centers. Then we have carried out a research on MPWs in Dustbins existing around the health centers. We have also made an analysis of the management system of MPWs inside The Regional Hospital Center (RHC) in Beni Mellal. Afterwards, we have made a comparison between some hospital centers in Morocco when it comes to the management costs of MPWs.Based on the results obtained; we have suggested some solutions to master the management system of MPWs in addition to the scenarios for optimizing the costs linked with this service.

New data on the ecological distribution ofEuphorbia resiniferaO.Berg in the Beni Mellal-Khenifra region

Euphorbia resiniferaO. Berg, also called Euphorbusresin, is a species belonging to the Euphorbiaceae family. It is endemic to the Beni Mellal Khenifra region and extends discontinuously between El Ksiba and Demnate. Currently, this plant is known as a meliferous species and its product is considered as a terroir product with a Protected Geographical Indication (PGI). However, few studies have conducted on its ecology and particularly its mapping in relation to the environmental conditionswhere it thrives. That’s why in this study, we tried to establish, for the first time in the region of Beni Mellal, a distribution mapping of E.resiniferaaccording to the ecological needs of the plant, the exploration of high-resolution satellite imagery and on the field by observing a representative sample of the study area. Results showed that it spread from Demnate to Elksiba in the Atlas piedmont area but appears as scattered individuals from Demnate to AitOurir due to a complexity of factors mainly related to the soil characteristics, paleogeography and the climate exacerbated by the negative results of anthropogenic impacts. It extends also into the central high Atlas valley as small isolated units which reach 1900 m of altitude. This could explain why other ecological requirements should be considered in terms of the distribution of this endemic species in the context of climate change.

Exploring the provenance effect on chemical composition and pharmacological bioactivity of the moroccan essential oils of Laurus nobilis

Even with the emerging modern medicine, traditional pharmacopoeia still has a great significance in primary health care in the Mediterranean countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the provenance effect on the chemical profile and evaluate the antimicrobial and antioxidant activities of essential oils (EO) of Laurus nobilis (LN) harvested in two different forest regions in Morocco (Moulay Abdessalam/North of Morocco and Beni Mellal ‘Tagzirt’/Middle Atlas forests). The chemical analysis of the composition was performed using GC and GC-MS techniques. The antioxidant effects of the EOs were analyzed using 2,2-di(4-tert-octylphenyl)-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging, ferric reducing/antioxidant power (FRAP) and Trolox equivalent antioxidant capacity (ABTS). Moreover, the antimicrobial activity of the EOs was carried out against four wood-rot fungi, three molds, and four bacterial strains. The best EO yield of the aerial part of LN was obtained from Tagzirt forest. GC and GC-MS analysis identified the 1,8-cineole, linalool, myrtenal, γ-terpineol, sabinene, eugenol, α-pinene and β-pinene as major compounds. In addition, the EO from LN of Tagzirt forest was found to have high antioxidant potential: 67.41±7.27 mg TE/g EO, 3.15±0.14 mg AAE/g EO and 126.13±10.69 mg TE/g EO for DPPH, FRAP and ABTS, respectively. Moreover, the EO from LN of Moulay Abdessalam forest showed 24.96 ± 2.41 mg TE/g EO for DPPH, 2.35±0.44 mg TE/g EO for FRAP, and 101.76±1.02 mg TE/g EO for ABTS. Also our study demonstrated that, the EO extracted from the laurel plant of the Tagzirt in Beni Mellal region was the most effective against the selected microorganisms. Our study showed promising antimicrobial and antioxidant properties of the EOs from LN. These findings will have potential impact in treating bacterial infections and prevent oxidative stress associated with several diseases if validated in vivo.

Physicochemical criteria, bioactive compounds and sensory quality of Moroccan traditional carob drink

The chemical, functional and sensory properties of Moroccan carob drink were evaluated. The carob pods were collected from Beni Mellal region in Morocco. The carob drink was processed from the pulp referring to an improved local process. The ash, moisture contents, pH, Brix, total acidity, water activity and pectin content were determined. Bio actives contents, total phenolics, flavonoids and condensed tannins were evaluated. Carob drink is a slightly acidic (total titratable acidity = 1.6 g CAE/ L and pH = 5) with high water activity value (aw = 0.87). Carob drink of Dir Lekssiba had significantly higher contents of total phenolic (843 μg GAE/mL), condensed tannin (28.1 mg TAE/100 mL) and flavonoids contents (55.3 mg RE/mL) than drink of Ait Oum Elbakht respectively 710 μg GAE/mL, 20.7 mg TAE/100 mL and 34.2 mg RE/mL. Sensory analysis showed that the carob drink is generally a sweet and astringent product with aromatic notes especially caramel and metallic. The aroma and sweet intensity is more pronounced for Ait Oum Elbakht drink. However, astringency is more pronounced for Dir Lekssiba drink.

The agroforestry parks of Azilal (Morocco): a centuries-old and still living landscape construction

The Moroccan Central High Atlas in the Beni Mellal - Khenifra region (Azilal Province) is characterized by highly anthropized landscapes as in all the medium mountain regions of Morocco. These are tree parks built by the rural Amazigh population in a context of rainfed food agriculture (bour), associated with extensive livestock farming, mainly sheep and goats. The very open landscapes are dominated by pre-forest formations of trees outside the forest (dominant holm oaks) selected in the fields. Dendrochronological analyses on holm oaks in the municipality of Agoudi N'Lkhir show that a large number of them are 200 to 300 years old and their regular treatment by long rotation (secular) grape varieties raises the structure of the tree park to at least 500 to 600 years. Despite this ancient historical foundation, these highly anthropized formations are often approached in terms of degradation, as are morphogenic processes, which are locally marked by strong erosion. However, field observations and diachronic analyses based on satellite images and aerial photographs show that these tree-lined parks, far from being relics of past landscapes, are still perennial and maintained by rural populations, as they continue to offer multiple vital functions and retain an important social role in these harsh and isolated mountainous contexts of the Moroccan Central High Atlas.

Using Statistical Analysis to Assess Urban Groundwater in Beni Mellal City (Morocco)

The study was carried out in a shallow phreatic aquifer in the piedmont zone between the Atlas Mountains and Tadla plain in Morocco. This study is carried out using physicochemical analyses with statistical analysis (CA and PCA) to show variability of groundwater hydrochemical parameters beneath Beni Mellal city in order to know spatial variability of water quality under urban activities. Total dissolved solid shows large variation from 355 mg/L to 918 mg/L with high values recorded, as electric conductivity, in the city center. High sulfate content is intercepted also in the old city center with values exceeding the threshold in the Moroccan guideline. Sulfate ions are often suspected of having an anthropogenic origin. All water samples show a dominance of Ca against Mg (Ca/Mg: 1.08–6.25) and HCO3 against SO4 (HCO3/SO4: 0.29–6.92). For most of the trace elements, the measured concentrations were far below the standard values except Al and Fe in some samples which exceed all guideline values. PCA of all dataset highlights eight factors with eigenvalues higher than 1 that explained about 80.34% of the total variance. The first two components PC1 and PC2 explained about 41.14% of the total cumulative variance and were responsible for 24.25% and 16.89% of the variance for each one, respectively. The component PC1 is mostly correlated with electric conductivity, TDS, and chloride. The component PC2 was highly correlated with Ca, Cr, and Zn. The dendrogram at a linkage distance of about 10.5 leads to dividing the diagram into three clusters of water samples, C1, C2, and C3. Cluster C1 shows a medium content of EC, HCO3, and NO3 and low content of TDS, Ca, Mg, Na, K, SO4, and Ba compared with C2 and C3. C1 samples show the lowest ion content, resulting probably from the minimal time of residence within the aquifer with low rock interactions. Cluster C2 regroups samples with high content of Ca, Mg, K, SO4, Al, and Cr, medium content of TDS and Na, and low content of EC, HCO3, NO3, and Cl. Samples in cluster C3 have more content of heavy metal (Cd, Fe, Mn, and Ni), CE, TDS, Ca, Mg, Na, HCO3, NO3, and Cl, with low content of Cr and Al and medium values of K and SO4. We recommended the monitoring and follow-up of the water quality under the city and the repair of pipes especially in the downtown area to limit unwanted infiltration. Spatial autocorrelation used with variograms and Moran'I leads to conclude that groundwater parameters varied differently according to the direction, which means that the semivariance depended on direction and distance between samples.

Arbutus unedo L., (Ericaceae) inhibits intestinal glucose absorption and improves glucose tolerance in rodents

Ethnopharmacological relevanceArbutus unedo L., (Ericaceae) is one of the most traditional plants commonly used to treat diabetes in people living in Eastern Morocco region particularly in Taza and Beni Mellal. Aim of the studyThe aim of the study was to find if there is a scientific support to the ethnopharmacological relevance use of Arbutus unedo L., roots bark (AU) to treat diabetes. Materials and methodsWe studied the effects of crude aqueous extract of AU on intestinal glucose absorption using short-circuit current technique in vitro and oral glucose tolerance test in vivo. ResultsThe aqueous extract of AU (10 µg/mL to 1 mg/mL) induced concentration-dependent inhibition of sodium-dependent glucose transport across isolated mouse jejunum. The maximal inhibition was obtained with 1 mg/mL, which exhibited more than 80% of the Phloridzin inhibition with an IC50 close to 216 µg/mL. A 6-week AU ingestion (2 g/(kg day)), improved oral glucose tolerance as efficiently as metformin (300 mg/(kg day)). Arbutus unedo L. and metformin also reduced body weight. ConclusionsArbutus unedo L. roots bark aqueous extract directly inhibited the electrogenic intestinal absorption of glucose in vitro. In addition it improved oral glucose tolerance and lowered body weight in rats after chronic oral administration in vivo. These results add a scientific support to the ethnopharmacological relevance use of Arbutus unedo L. roots bark to treat diabetes.

Evaluation of hydrogeochemical quality parameters of groundwater under urban activities—Case of Beni Mellal city (Morocco)

Evaluation of hydrogeochemical quality parameters of groundwater under urban activities—Case of Beni Mellal city (Morocco)

Integrative herbal treatments of diabetes in Beni Mellal region of Morocco

ObjectivesDiabetes is one of the most life-threatening chronic metabolic disorders and is considered a global health problem due to its prevalence and incidence. In Morocco, several herbal preparations are utilized to treat this disease. For this reason, the current study aimed to identify and to collect data about the medicinal plants utilized in folk medicine for the treatment of diabetes in the Beni Mellal region of Morocco. MethodsAn ethnobotanical survey was carried out among 400 herbalists, competent villagers and traditional healers from the Beni Mellal region through direct interviews using a semistructured questionnaire. ResultsForty-five medicinal plants belonging to 25 families were identified for their use in diabetes treatment. Interview results showed that the most frequently used plants were Olea europaea, Salvia officinalis, Allium sativum and Trigonella foenum-graecum, with a relative frequency of citation values of 24.3%, 23.0%, 22.5% and 20.5%, respectively. Moreover, in this study, the Fabaceae family was the most commonly reported plant family, and the leaves and roots were the most commonly used parts, for the treatment of diabetes. ConclusionThe Beni Mellal region of Morocco has an important floristic biodiversity of plants used to treat diabetes in traditional medicinal practice. This result provides a good database for pharmacological screenings in the search for plant-based antidiabetic medications.

Evaluation of the Microbiological Quality of Different Moroccan Drinking Water in the Beni Mellal Region

Drinking water is water that does not contain pathogens or chemicals at levels that may be harmful to health. Beni Mellal region, one of the major rich areas in ground and surface water in Morocco (the rivers like Oum Errabia, Darna, ...; Bin el-Ouidane and martyr Ahmed El Hansali dams and sources like Ain Asserdoune, …) is located in the North-Centre of Morocco. The main objective of the present study was to evaluate the microbiological quality of different drinking waters originated from sources, faucets, fountains and wells in the Beni Mellal city and its agricultural surrounding areas. For this, hygienic quality indicator parameters of water quality were determined by assessing the analysis of Total Coliforms Count, Fecal Coliforms Count, streptococcus D and revivable germs while germs such as Anaerobic Sulphite-reducing Bacteria, S. aureus and Salmonella sp, were carried out according to national and international standards. The analysis of the microbiological results found for all the different samples waters investigated in this study revealed that the waters originated from fountains, faucets and sources were proper for main consumption at microbiological point of view while the wells waters were improper for consumption according to norms. Finally, it appears, from the results obtained, that the potential risk of infection of water consumers especially (groundwater) calls for prompt intervention in order to alleviate the potential health impact of water-borne diseases in the community. From this, a proper sanitary survey and implementation of water and sanitation projects in the community is recommended.

Evalution of the Microbiological Quality of Moroccan Cow Raw Milk in Dairy Herds Located in the Beni Mellal Region

Evalution of the Microbiological Quality of Moroccan Cow Raw Milk in Dairy Herds Located in the Beni Mellal Region

Evaluation of the Physical and Chemical Quality of Moroccan Cow Raw Milk in Dairy Herds Located in the Beni Mellal Region

Evaluation of the Physical and Chemical Quality of Moroccan Cow Raw Milk in Dairy Herds Located in the Beni Mellal Region

GEOLOGICAL STRUCTURES MAPPING USING AEROMAGNETIC PROSPECTING AND REMOTE SENSING DATA IN THE KARSTIC MASSIF OF BENI MELLAL ATLAS, MOROCCO.

The current study exposes the results of aeromagnetic data interpretation and a combined analysis of 1-A sentinel radar image that cover the study area of Beni Mellal Atlas in order to describe the structural geometry and to understand its tectonic evolution.The map of the reduced to pole of residual magnetic field highlights various magnetic anomalies with high amplitudes that correspond to Jurassic-Cretaceous basaltic formations outcropping synclinal basins of Beni Mellal Atlas. The interpretation of magnetic data using tilt derivative (TDR), horizontal gradient technique coupled to upward continuation and Euler Deconvolution allows us to distinguish the fractures network that is affecting the study area. In order to complete this analysis, the Sentinel-A radar image is processed and filtered using SNAP ESA Sentinel-1 toolbox software to extract lineaments. The final structural map reveals four faults groups oriented respectively NE-SW, ENE-WSW to E-W, N-S and NW-SE Their depths estimated by the application of Euler deconvolution exceed 1500 m.Thoses faults have played a major role in structural evolution of Beni Mellal Atlas.

Chaotic dynamics applied in time prediction of photovoltaic production

The advantage of accurate forecasts is that it solves the main problem related to renewable energies: their variability. Indeed, while renewable energies has not yet replaced fossil fuels, in spite of the efforts of many governments, it is because of their intermittent nature, hence the importance of prediction in this field. The new approach for energy prediction that we propose in this paper, is founded on the analysis of the dynamical behavior of the photovoltaic production of the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of Beni Mellal, Morocco. It consists in performing the phase space reconstruction, which allowed us later to build a database for the input of the neural network and thus take into account the dynamics of the system in the forecasting process. Then, in search of more precision, we introduce the wavelet transformation, to simplify the database constructed from phase space reconstruction. Finally, comparing between the predictions and the actual observations confirmed the efficiency of our approach.