Bengal Initiative For Multi-Sectoral Technical And Economic Cooperation Research Articles

India BIMSTEC Economic Cooperation: Potential and Prospects

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) was established in 1997 is a unique sub-regional initiative in Asia. It combines the south and South-Eas tAsia with five countries of SAARC and two countries of ASEAN. BIMSTEC is a sector-driven cooperative organisation with key areas of economic cooperation include trade, investment, regional value chains, energy, connectivity, technology, management and capacity building, people to people contact, among others. Even after two decades of existence, BIMSTEC achieved limited progress as India the largest member of the group showed little interest in it. But the failure of SAARC as an effective sub-regional economic integration in Asia and the incorrigible differences between India and Pakistan, the two largest economies of SAARC led to the rethinking and resurrection of BIMSTEC in the recent past. India's strategic interests in the Himalayan, Bay of Bengal and Mekong sub-regions have grown over the years and the expansionist tendencies of China in these regions led to India's renewed engagements with BIMSTEC. In this context, the paper looks into the trade relation between India and BIMSTEC countries and identified the unexplored trade potential and possible areas of cooperation between India and BIMSTEC countries. The trade impact of the likely India BIMSTEC Regional TradeAgreement (RTA) is ascertained using partial equilibrium simulation model. Indicators such as Trade Intensity Index (TII) and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) showed that there is trade complementary existing between India and BIMSTEC countries and the possibility of enhanced economic cooperation between them. The SMART simulation showed that there is trade creation from a potential India BIMSTEC FTA for the participating countries. The simulation analysis also revealed that the total trade effect of India BIMSTEC RTA was 2.369 billion US dollars, total welfare was 267.044 million dollars and the trade creation was 412.2 thousand US dollars.

India's Trade with the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic-Cooperation (BIMSTEC) – A Study

India's Trade with the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic-Cooperation (BIMSTEC) – A Study

Transforming Eastern South Asia: Relevance of BIMSTEC

Of late the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is receiving sincere attention from its member countries as an organisation that has the potenti...

COMPARATIVE POSITIONING OF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN BANGLADESH, THAILAND AND THE PHILIPPINES

Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) play a significant role in the nation’s economic development process. SMEs provide job opportunities, create wealth, promote modernization and contribute to technological changes. The Asia-Pacific Region is foreseen to be the next economic boom. A comparison of SMEs in Bangladesh, Thailand and the Philippines on their SMEs Landscape, Banking sector, Non-Banking sector and Capital Markets would give a picture of which strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats these countries face. The time period of the study is from August 2016 to January 2017. Based on the secondary sources of data, the research was conducted to examine real scenarios. The study aimed at getting information whether each country would have any benchmark to attain the best practices. The study found that SMEs credit and repayment schemes in these countries need to be gradually improved. Through proper utilization of SMEs, these countries can alleviate poverty and attain economic progress. Unfortunately, the informal sector of these countries is playing a large role. It should be transformed to formal sector by financial inclusion. This can be achieved by setting up SMEs in the formal sector .The creation of employment along with poverty reduction in the formal sector will enhance economic growth as well as fulfill the basic needs and create empowerment of people. Community banking is suggested to be introduced for accumulating micro-savings and allocating, distributing setting up SMEs in the formal sector through micro investment under the umbrella of community banking. Further, under the regional cooperation flagship of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Bangladesh and Thailand may work in collaborative manner in the SMEs sector. The Philippines may join the regional body of BIMSTEC and collaborate with SMEs at the regional level. This may lead to achieve some goals of sustainable development goals (SDGs). SMEs can work more rigorously for lower income group people to improve their living standard. The further research on these three countries can consider primary sources of data to find out the way to implement community bank for transforming micro savings to micro investment for removing income inequality, disparity and attaining social justice.

Foreign direct investment and international trade in BIMSTEC: panel causality analysis

Economic engagement and disengagement are part and parcel of political economy and geopolitical concerns. The recent non-participation of India in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit has proved fatal. This has resulted in the shift of attention of the major Asian countries towards The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) region for world trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). The present study is an attempt to empirically identify the causality between variables of FDI and world trade across panel data for BIMSTEC countries. This is an attempt to search for further causality.

Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105years are historical period and the later 95years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

Value‐added quantitative medium‐range rainfall forecasts for the BIMSTEC region

ABSTRACT:Daily operational forecasts from the global models run at the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), India were assessed for their skill during the southwest monsoon for member countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi‐Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). The rainfall forecasts from two models, NCMRWF Global Forecast System (NGFS) and NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM), were used to carry out the verification study for July and August 2013 and 2014. The skills were analysed in terms of equitable threat score (ETS), Hansen–Kuiper skill score (HKS) and the economic value for various rainfall thresholds. The ETS had a positive value for all of the thresholds up to the Day 10 forecast for both years. The HKS and economic value for binary forecast of Yes rain (prediction that rainfall event will occur) suggest that the model has significant positive skills. Deterministic forecast for four rainfall thresholds show negative skills, suggesting that false alarms increase as forecasts are made for smaller rainfall thresholds. To improve the skill scores, forecasted data were processed using simple bias correction, relative co‐efficient of variance (Rvar) method and the best easy systematic error (BESE) correction method. Correlation of the processed forecasts with model forecasts suggests an improvement using the bias correction and Rvar method but not using the BESE method. Significant improvement in the HKS and economic value of processed forecasts using the bias correction method has been noticed over most parts of the BIMSTEC region, except for the Western Ghats.

Identifying Suitability of Commodities for Trade Among Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Nations: An Application of Revealed Comparative Advantage Approach

Diminution of trade barriers forms vicious strains and the potential for technology to move so as to escort to productivity gains and restructuring of an economy toward its comparative advantage. Further, a country’s comparative advantage in international trade may be influenced by differential rates of change in accumulation of production factors or due to the increased trade integration of other countries. The BIMSTEC countries have long shared common objectives for closer economic integration within the South-East Asian region. This paper is an attempt to systematic evaluation of the nature and changes of revealed comparative advantage of BIMSTEC countries from 1997-98 to 2012-13 for 16 major commodity groups as identified by WTO. The analysis of comparative advantage has been undertaken using the Balassa (1965) index of revealed comparative advantage.

Prospects and Challenges of Intraregional Trade and Investment among India and BIMSTEC

The globalisation wave gave rise to a number of regional arrangements. The thought of economic regionalism expanded the prominence in international trade as well as regional diplomacy. In present world, no nations survive into economic isolation. So, Trade liberalisation alone is notadequate condition for nations to turn either single or multiple “Regional Integration Arrangements” (RIA). Within such arrangements. Desire is to assist neighbouring states for mutually beneficial purposes, as well as to take anticipatory action against the spill over of unrest and mass economic migration. The fascinating logic of regional groupings in Asia, coupled with the obvious failure of SAARC and the near incapacitating East Asian crisis of 1997, jointly contributed to the creation of BIMSTEC. The BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) grouping, brainchild of Thailand, is a unique initiative in sub regional economic cooperation. It has the distinction of combining five geographically contiguous countries of SAARC with two of ASEAN, thus creating a vast scope for regional development. BIMSTEC is a relatively young organization among the various regional and sub-regional grouping in Asia. This paper investigate growth of Intra-regional trade and investment among India and BIMSTEC nations and their prospects and challenges. Time series data has been used to calculate intra-regional trade with Intra Industry Trade (IIT) index and econometric model i.e. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) has been used for analysing prospects of trade and investment. The group demonstrate that there is momentous progress to expand the intra-bloc trade and investment with preferential liberalisation within the regional arrangement.

Can Gravity Model Explain BIMSTEC's Trade?

This paper examines the trading pattern of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi- Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) by employing an augmented gravity model. The econometric specification followed Egger (2000, 2002), Baltagi et al. (2003) and Serlenga and Shin (2007). Diagnostic checks imply the presence of serial correlation, heteroscedasticity and contemporaneous correlation in both import and export panels, which are allowed for in the Prais-Winsten regression with panel-specific AR(1). Regression estimates show that BIMSTEC's imports follow the Linder hypothesis, while the exports exhibit Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson prototype. Results also suggest that distance elasticity is negative and significant. Real depreciation is import-reducing and export enhancing. Common language and bilateral trade agreement are found to be import and export enhancing, respectively. Governance of both local and destination countries impact trade of the bloc positively. Finally, belonging to the bloc accounts for about 29% of its exports, which is an indication of good prospect if trade policies are liberalised within the bloc. Thus, gravity model can successfully explain the pattern of the bloc's trade.

Asian Economic Integration and Sub-regionalism

The process of economic integration in Asia has many dimensions to it. As different sub-regions of the continent pursue a distinct course of economic integration within, they are also simultaneously entering into economic arrangements across sub-regions. This article undertakes an evaluation of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Co-operation (BIMSTEC), an inter-sub-regional organization, for its ability to act as a bridge between South and Southeast Asia. The analysis involves an assessment of the design and the potential of this sub-regional grouping against regional realities and its performance thus far. Further, the article examines the more fundamental issue of the scope for convergence in the economic integration processes in South and Southeast Asia. In the light of evidence to indicate that inter-sub-regional economic integration is feasible only in the long run, the article makes some recommendations for the BIMSTEC to remain relevant to the region.

An empirical analysis on prospects and challenges of BIMSTEC-Japan trade integration

Seven-nation Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand is emerging as one of the major subregional groups in Asia. Japan is the second largest trading partner for BIMSTEC countries. The paper discusses prospects and challenges for strengthening BIMSTEC countries and Japan's trade integration. It analyzes the trends and patterns of BIMSTEC-Japan trade. Further, it examines empirically whether BIMSTEC-Japan economic cooperation will increase intraregional trade using a gravity model. Japan-BIMSTEC cooperation will increase intraregional trade but not uniformly for all countries. The potential losses on trade for some countries will be compensated by gains in other areas, such as, stepped-up resource transfer, foreign direct investment flows, technology transfer, and market access to services. This integration will strengthen the trade link between South Asian and Southeast Asian countries and will contribute towards a pan-Asian integration.

Regional Groupings

In the last decade, India has shown a keen interest in the formation of sub-regional groupings such as Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) and the Mekong Ganga Project (MGC). There are five reasons for this: the need to find a working alternative to a non-functional South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), the importance of this contiguous region with regard to geopolitics and security, rivalry with China, the growing economic links between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the strategic advantages of enhanced relations with Myanmar. There are barriers to regional integration within the region mentioned, such as weak political institutions and human rights violations, but ASEAN offers a good model. India needs to adopt a multi-dimensional consultative approach in this matter.

Prospects of Regional Cooperation in Trade, Investment and Finance in Asia: An Empirical Analysis on Bimstec Countries and Japan

The seven-nation Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand is emerging as one of the major subregional groups in Asia. Japan is the second largest trading partner for BIMSTEC countries. The paper discusses prospects for strengthening BIMSTEC countries and Japan’s cooperation and integration in trade, investment, and finance. It analyzes the trends and patterns of bilateral and subregional economic cooperation in Asia as well as BIMSTEC-Japan trade. It examines empirically whether BIMSTEC-Japan economic cooperation will increase intraregional trade using a gravity model. Japan-BIMSTEC cooperation will increase intraregional trade but not uniformly for all countries. The potential losses on trade for some countries will be compensated by gains in other areas, such as, stepped up resource transfer, foreign direct investment flows, technology transfer, and market access to services. The paper also presents the need for and possible areas of economic cooperation and integration in investment and finance.