Benefits Of Climate Policy Research Articles

Integrated Benefits of Synergistically Reducing Air Pollutants and Carbon Dioxide in China.

China's advancements in addressing air pollution and reducing CO2 emissions offer valuable lessons for collaborative strategies to achieve diverse environmental objectives. Previous studies have assessed the mutual benefits of climate policies and air pollution control measures on one another, lacking an integrated assessment of the benefits of synergistic control attributed to refined measures. Here, we comprehensively used coupled emission inventory and response models to evaluate the integrated benefits and synergy degrees of various measures in reducing air pollutants and CO2 in China during 2013-2021. Results indicated that the implemented measures yielded integrated benefits value at 6.7 (2.4-12.6) trillion Chinese Yuan. The top five contributors, accounting for 55%, included promoting non-thermal power, implementing end-of-pipe control technologies in power plants and iron and steel industry, replacing residential scattered coal, and saving building energy. Measures demonstrating high synergies and integrated benefits per unit of reduction (e.g., green traffic promotion) yielded low benefits mainly due to their low application, which are expected to gain greater implementation and prioritization in the future. Our findings provide insights into the effectiveness and limitations of strategies aimed at joint control. By ranking these measures based on their benefits and synergy, we offer valuable guidance for policy development in China and other nations with similar needs.

Rainfall variability and welfare of agricultural households: Evidence from rural Niger

AbstractVariable weather continues to be the major source of vulnerability to chronic hunger and poverty in many developing countries due to the strong dependency of livelihood strategies on rainfed farming. Quantifying the effect of climatic parameters on agricultural households is, therefore, necessary to help policymakers understand the benefits of climate policies, improve the allocation of the scarce resources dedicated to adaptation and prioritize among adaptation strategies. This article investigates the empirical relationship between the welfare of rural households and rainfall variability in the semi‐arid tropics, using household panel data and high‐resolution remotely sensed rainfall data from Niger. We find that a standard deviation increase in rainfall variability is associated with a reduction of real food consumption by 11.13%. Results also indicate that a standard deviation increase in rainfall variability reduces expenditures for cereal‐based products, animal‐based products and processed foods by 11.96%, 21.31%, and 16.23%, respectively. Our results are consistent across a battery of robustness checks. Finally, we find geographical‐based differences in terms of the effect and that access to cereal banks cushions the negative effect of rainfall variability. Policy interventions aiming at improving the well‐being of rural households should therefore emphasize improving climate adaptation strategies.

The Effect of Social Recognition on Support for Climate Change Mitigation Measures

Social recognition is introduced as an explanatory factor for support for climate change mitigation measures to complement already existing research. Drawing on social identity theory, it is established that respect emanating from being part of a generation and social class increases support for climate policies through positive influence on self-assessed financial situation, trust in political institutions, generalized trust, and solidarity. Considering the costs and benefits of climate policies, it is assumed that the importance of respect varies between generations and social classes. Analyses are based on data which were collected via online survey (n = 3046) in September and October 2022 that are representative of the German resident population. Results from linear regressions and structural equation modeling corroborate that the influence of social recognition varies between generations and that it operates through the suggested mechanisms. The most important of these mechanisms is the strengthening of solidarity and trust in political institutions by social recognition.

The social costs of tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) can adversely affect economic development for more than a decade. Yet, these long-term effects are not accounted for in current estimates of the social cost of carbon (SCC), a key metric informing climate policy on the societal costs of greenhouse gas emissions. We here derive temperature-dependent damage functions for 41 TC-affected countries to quantify the country-level SCC induced by the persistent growth effects of damaging TCs. We find that accounting for TC impacts substantially increases the global SCC by more than 20%; median global SCC increases from US$ 173 to US$ 212 per tonne of CO2 under a middle-of-the-road future emission and socioeconomic development scenario. This increase is mainly driven by the strongly TC-affected major greenhouse gas emitting countries India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan. This suggests that the benefits of climate policies could currently be substantially underestimated. Adequately accounting for the damages of extreme weather events in policy evaluation may therefore help to prevent a critical lack of climate action.

COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE PARIS CLIMATE TARGETS

The temperature targets in the Paris Agreement cannot be met without very rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. The latter requires large, perhaps prohibitively large subsidies. The central estimate of the costs of climate policy, unrealistically assuming least-cost implementation, is 3.8–5.6% of GDP in 2100. The central estimate of the benefits of climate policy, unrealistically assuming high no-policy emissions and constant vulnerability, is 2.8–3.2% of GDP. The uncertainty about the benefits is larger than the uncertainty about the costs. The Paris targets do not pass the cost-benefit test unless risk aversion is high and discount rate low.

Health benefits from the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations under carbon tax and emission trading scheme: a case study in China.

Climate policies could improve air quality, thereby generating health benefits and thus increasing labour input for economic growth. Nevertheless, health benefits are usually overlooked in evaluation frameworks of climate policies. In this paper, a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is adopted to define how climate policies are related to air pollution, namely [Formula: see text] concentrations. Health benefits of climate policies are divided into reduction of [Formula: see text]-related morbidity and mortality. The CGE model results show that both carbon tax and emission trading scheme (ETS) decrease morbidity and mortality; therefore, under climate policies, [Formula: see text]-related labour loss decreases, and thus increasing labour input triggers an economic boom. Carbon tax generates more health benefits in short term, while health benefits of ETS policy will gradually increase in long term. Hence, we conclude that regarding health benefits, a long-term ETS policy is preferable to a long-term carbon tax. This finding implies that the recently established nationwide ETS market in China is meaningful, as it will generate more health benefits in future. Nevertheless, the quantified health benefits in this paper still cannot compensate GDP loss induced by climate policy implementations, implying that it is a challenging task to unbiasedly model health benefits of climate policies. Hence, we have recommended that the scopes and contents of health benefits should be expanded in evaluations of climate policies.

Quantifying the cost savings of global solar photovoltaic supply chains.

Achieving carbon neutrality requires deploying renewable energy at unprecedented speed and scale1,2, yet countries sometimes implement policies that increase costs by restricting the free flow of capital, talent and innovation in favour of localizing benefits such as economic growth, employment and trade surpluses3,4. Here we assess the cost savings from a globalized solar photovoltaic (PV) module supply chain. We develop a two-factor learning model using historical capacity, component and input material price data of solar PV deployment in the United States, Germany and China. We estimate that the globalized PV module market has saved PV installers US$24 (19-31) billion in the United States, US$7 (5-9) billion in Germany and US$36 (26-45) billion in China from 2008 to 2020 compared with a counterfactual scenario in which domestic manufacturers supply an increasing proportion of installed capacities over a ten-year period. Projecting the same scenario forwards from 2020 results in estimated solar module prices that are approximately 20-25 per cent higher in 2030 compared with a future with globalized supply chains. International climate policy benefits from a globalized low-carbon value chain4, and these results point to the need for complementary policies to mitigate welfare distribution effects and potential impacts on technological crowding out.

Co-benefits of air pollution control and climate change mitigation strategies in Pakistan

Pakistan’s urban air pollution is among the world's worst, wreaking havoc on public health and the economy. Although the country’s environmental protection act and the climate change act recognize the dual challenges of air pollution and climate change, it lacks an integrated national strategy to manage both simultaneously. Based on simulations with the GAINS model (an integrated assessment model) through soft coupling with the EnerNEO Pakistan model (an energy-economic model), we assess the benefits of climate policies and air pollution control measures on air quality and public health for Pakistan under the baseline and alternative scenarios. Our results reveal that Pakistan's current air pollution control measures are insufficient to meet the country's air quality standards under the baseline scenario. Implementing sustainable development strategies will reduce nationwide PM2.5-related mortalities by 24% in 2050 compared to the baseline. While advanced control measures have the potential to improve air quality and human health in Pakistan, when combined with national sustainable development strategies, they have the potential to halve greenhouse gas emissions (implementing SDG 13 indicator on climate action) and save on emission control costs approximately by a quarter (0.32% of GDP) by 2050. This appears to be a significant co-benefit in terms of air quality (environmental), health (social), and cost (economic), implying that Pakistan's future policymaking should prioritize cost-effective co-control of air pollution and greenhouse gases.

Mercury Benefits of Climate Policy in China: Addressing the Paris Agreement and the Minamata Convention Simultaneously.

National commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change interact with other global environmental objectives, such as those of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. We assess how mercury emissions and deposition reductions from national climate policy in China under the Paris Agreement could contribute to the country's commitments under the Minamata Convention. We examine emissions under climate policy scenarios developed using a computable general equilibrium model of China's economy, end-of-pipe control scenarios that meet China's commitments under the Minamata Convention, and these policies in combination, and evaluate deposition using a global atmospheric transport model. We find climate policy in China can provide mercury benefits when implemented with Minamata policy, achieving in the year 2030 approximately 5% additional reduction in mercury emissions and deposition in China when climate policy achieves a 5% reduction per year in carbon intensity (CO2 emissions 9.7 Gt in 2030). This corresponds to 63 Mg additional mercury emissions reductions in 2030 when implemented with Minamata Convention policy, compared to Minamata policy implemented alone. Climate policy provides emissions reductions in sectors not considered under the Minamata Convention, such as residential combustion. This changes the combination of sectors that contribute to emissions reductions.

Wildfire Exposure Increases Pro-Climate Political Behaviors

Despite the climate threat's severity, global policy responses remain anemic. One political challenge has been the temporal mismatch between short-term climate policy costs and long-term climate policy benefits. Will this policymaking obstacle weaken as the impacts of climate change begin to realize? Here we analyze the impact of a climate-related hazard on public support for costly climate reforms. Using a natural experiment based on randomness in the timing of California wildfires we link, for the first time, threat exposure to realized political behavior rather than self-reported attitudes or behavioral intentions. We find that census block groups within 15 km of a wildfire have approximately 4 to 6 percentage points higher support for costly pro-climate ballot measures. The effects are stronger for block groups closest to wildfires, dropping by approximately 1.7 percentage points for every 10km of distance. Moreover, the effect is concentrated among census block groups with a large or medium concentrations of Democratic voters; by contrast, voters in Republican-dominated census block groups are largely unresponsive to wildfires. Our results suggest that experienced climate threats may only enhance willingness-to-act in areas where the public already holds pro-climate identities.

Effect of Health-Related Uncertainty and Natural Variability on Health Impacts and Cobenefits of Climate Policy.

Climate policy can mitigate health risks attributed to intensifying air pollution under climate change. However, few studies quantify risks of illness and death, examine their contribution to climate policy benefits, or assess their robustness in light of natural climate variability. We employ an integrated modeling framework of the economy, climate, air quality, and human health to quantify the effect of natural variability on U.S. air pollution impacts under future climate and two global policies (2 and 2.5 °C stabilization scenarios) using 150 year ensemble simulations for each scenario in 2050 and 2100. Climate change yields annual premature deaths related to fine particulate matter and ozone (95CI: 25 000-120 000), heart attacks (900-9400), and lost work days (3.6M-4.9M) in 2100. It raises air pollution health risks by 20%, while policies avert these outcomes by 40-50% in 2050 and 70-88% in 2100. Natural variability introduces "climate noise", yielding some annual estimates with negative cobenefits, and others that reach 100% of annual policy costs. This "noise" is three times the magnitude of uncertainty (95CI) in health and economic responses in 2050. Averaging five annual simulations reduces this factor to two, which is still substantially larger than health-related uncertainty. This study quantifies the potential for inaccuracy in climate impacts projected using too few annual simulations.

Long-Term Development Perspectives of Sub-Saharan Africa under Climate Policies

Ambitious climate policy increases the cost of energy and therefore has important interactions with the prospects of development in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa. These interactions include the potential for gain for the continent in the form of new trade opportunities and climate finance. In this paper we quantify the costs and benefits of climate policy in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using an Integrated Assessment Model, we consider key characteristics of the continent, including the favorable conditions for renewable energy. A newly designed scenario analysis allows identifying the main drivers of the results. We show that Sub-Saharan Africa could implement climate policy in line with the 2°C target at roughly net zero costs if the international community follows up on its commitment towards supporting developing countries as declared in the Paris Agreement. Sub-Saharan Africa could become an important supplier of energy from biomass and could thus even benefit from more ambitious climate policy due to higher demand for this source of energy. The absence of a painful trade-off between short-term development and long-term climate stabilization could provide policy-makers with a much richer policy option space than previously considered. One such option is to link climate policy with poverty reduction through, for example, the provision of clean electricity.

Model confirmation in climate economics

Benefit-cost integrated assessment models (BC-IAMs) inform climate policy debates by quantifying the trade-offs between alternative greenhouse gas abatement options. They achieve this by coupling simplified models of the climate system to models of the global economy and the costs and benefits of climate policy. Although these models have provided valuable qualitative insights into the sensitivity of policy trade-offs to different ethical and empirical assumptions, they are increasingly being used to inform the selection of policies in the real world. To the extent that BC-IAMs are used as inputs to policy selection, our confidence in their quantitative outputs must depend on the empirical validity of their modeling assumptions. We have a degree of confidence in climate models both because they have been tested on historical data in hindcasting experiments and because the physical principles they are based on have been empirically confirmed in closely related applications. By contrast, the economic components of BC-IAMs often rely on untestable scenarios, or on structural models that are comparatively untested on relevant time scales. Where possible, an approach to model confirmation similar to that used in climate science could help to build confidence in the economic components of BC-IAMs, or focus attention on which components might need refinement for policy applications. We illustrate the potential benefits of model confirmation exercises by performing a long-run hindcasting experiment with one of the leading BC-IAMs. We show that its model of long-run economic growth-one of its most important economic components-had questionable predictive power over the 20th century.

Prospect theory, mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Prospect theory (PT) is a widely accepted theory for decisions under uncertainty. However, so far a systematic application to climate policy (CP) does not exist. One important postulation of PT is that outcomes are perceived as gains or losses, relative to the reference point. When it comes to CP, different decision-makers may have different reference points. For example, one decision-maker perceives the current climate as the reference point whereas another decision-maker may have another one, say climate in 100 years. For the former, climate damages are losses and the benefits of CP are reductions of losses. For the latter, benefits of CP are gains. PT suggests that the former places a higher value in CP than the latter. After a critical review whether and how PT may be applied to CP, the paper systematically presents this and other cases where PT offers new insights into climate-related analyses, notwithstanding the importance of well-known aspects such as discounting, altruism, political and economic costs. It is shown that accounting for PT may contribute to a better understanding of some well-known puzzles in the climate debate, including different preferences for CP amongst individuals and nations, the role of technical vs. financial adaptation, and the apparent preference for hard protection measures in coastal adaptation. Finally, concrete possibilities for empirical research on these effects are proposed.

What motivates Vietnam to strive for a low-carbon economy? — On the drivers of climate policy in a developing country

Though climate change is an urgent problem especially for vulnerable developing countries, international negotiations are in a gridlock. Standard game-theoretic models that describe climate change mitigation as a public good problem predict few incentives for individual countries to act. Nevertheless – despite the absence of a globally binding agreement – we can observe some developing countries launching unilateral climate policies. Being one of th\\ose, Vietnam has recently announced to strive for a low-carbon economy. Based on interviews with Vietnamese policy makers and other stakeholders, this explorative case study examines Vietnam's motivation for a policy change that has shifted from emphasizing the responsibilities of developed countries for climate change towards accepting responsibility of developing countries to also reduce their emissions. While Vietnam's high vulnerability has contributed to put climate on the political agenda, the policy shift from a pure adaptation towards a mitigation focus was mainly driven by expected multiple climate policy benefits other than climate change abatement (so-called co-benefits). These include restructuring of the economy, addressing energy security concerns and accessing international finance to counteract a phase-out of conventional development assistance. Air quality considerations, by contrast, do not seem to play a major role for Vietnam's shift in climate policy.

Climate policy benefits

Climate policy benefits

Ancillary Benefits of Climate Policies for the Mitigation of Atmospheric Mercury Emissions

This study provides an analysis of the impact of global climate policies on mercury emissions using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The time evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption provided by the Prospective Outlook for the Long term Energy System (POLES) model for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2°C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: EU-27, China, India and the US. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. Scenario calculations for mercury emissions indicate significant scope for co-benefits made possible through climate policies. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of co-benefits for mercury emissions estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 are allocated to China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

The Timing of Benefits of Climate Policies. Reconsidering the Opportunity Cost Argument

The Timing of Benefits of Climate Policies. Reconsidering the Opportunity Cost Argument

Ancillary benefits of climate policy in a small open economy: The case of Sweden

It is increasingly recognised that GHG reduction policies can have important ancillary benefits in the form of positive local and regional environmental impacts. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the domestic ancillary pollution benefits of climate policy in Sweden, and investigate how these are affected by different climate policy designs. The latter differ primarily in terms of how the country chooses to meet a specific target and where the necessary emission reductions take place. The analysis relies on simulations within the energy system optimisation model TIMES-Sweden, and focuses on four non-GHG pollutants: Nitrogen Oxides (NOX), Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOC), inhalable particles (PM2.5), and Sulphur dioxide (SO2). The simulations permit detailed assessments of the respective technology and fuel choices that underlie any net changes in the estimated ancillary effects. The results indicate that the ancillary benefits constitute a far from insignificant share of total system costs, and this share appears to be highest in the scenarios that entail the largest emission reductions domestically. This result reflects the fact that carbon dioxide emission reductions abroad also implies a lost opportunity of achieving substantial domestic welfare gain from the reductions of regional and local environmental pollutants.

Climate policy: hard problem, soft thinking

Climate change is more uncertain, more global, and more long-term than most issues facing humanity. This trifecta makes a policy response that encompasses scientific correctness, public awareness, economic efficiency, and governmental effectiveness particularly difficult. Economic and psychological instincts impede rational thought. Elected officials, who cater to and foster voters’ misguided beliefs, compound the soft thinking that results. Beliefs must change before unequivocal symptoms appear and humanity experiences the climate-change equivalent of a life-altering heart attack. Sadly, it may well take dramatic loss to jolt the collective conscience toward serious action. In the long run, the only solution is a bottom-up demand leading to policies that appropriately price carbon and technological innovation, and that promote ethical shifts toward a world in which low-carbon, high-efficiency living is the norm. In the short term, however, popular will is unlikely to drive serious action on the issue. Policy makers can and must try to overcome inherent psychological barriers and create pockets of certainty that link benefits of climate policy to local, immediate payoffs. It will take high-level scientific and political leadership to redirect currently misguided market forces toward a positive outcome.