Life Expectancy Benefits Research Articles

The effect of peri-urban parks on life expectancy and socioeconomic inequalities: A 16-year longitudinal study in Hong Kong

Exposure to greenspaces has well-established benefits for the health and well-being of urban dwellers. Among these greenspaces, peri-urban parks (PUPs), which are human-modified, large-scale, and public-accessible greenspaces located on the urban fringe, have received increasing attention from policymakers and researchers in recent years, as the limited provision of greenspaces in urban areas barely meet the residents’ needs for nature engagement. However, the associations between PUPs and life expectancy and their potential socioeconomic inequalities remain unclear. In this study, we employed a longitudinal, territory-wide death-registration dataset to address such research gaps. The results showed that both the area and greenery of PUP significantly decreased life expectancy loss with standardized coefficients of −0.156 (p = 0.001) and −0.173 (p < 0.001), respectively. The life-expectancy benefits of PUP greenery remain significant throughout 200–8000 m buffer radii. Nevertheless, socioeconomic inequalities were found between PUPs and life expectancy associations. We found that people with higher socioeconomic status (SES) received higher PUP exposure. In addition, contrary to the hypothesis of equigenesis theory, higher-SES populations received greater benefits in life expectancy than lower-SES populations, even after controlling for inequalities in PUP exposure. Our findings uncover a complex relationship between PUPs, life expectancy, and SES, highlighting the need for targeted interventions for people with different SES to ensure equitable health benefits for all.

Ultrasound Surveillance of Small, Incidentally Detected Gallbladder Polyps: Projected Benefits by Sex, Age, and Comorbidity Level

ObjectiveIncidentally detected gallbladder polyps are commonly encountered when performing upper abdominal ultrasound. Our purpose was to estimate the life expectancy (LE) benefit of ultrasound-based gallbladder surveillance in patients with small (6-7 to <10 mm), incidentally detected gallbladder polyps, accounting for patient sex, age, and comorbidity level. MethodsWe developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate hypothetical cohorts of women and men with small gallbladder polyps, with varying age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). Drawing from current evidence, in the base case, we assumed no increased risk of gallbladder cancer in patients with small gallbladder polyps. To estimate maximal possible LE gains from surveillance, we assumed perfect cancer control consequent to 5 years of surveillance. We varied key assumptions including cancer risk and test performance characteristics in sensitivity analysis. ResultsProjected LE gains from surveillance were <3 days across most cohorts and scenarios evaluated. For 66- and 80-year-olds with no comorbidities, LE gains were 1.46 and 1.45 days, respectively, for women, and 0.67 and 0.75 days for men. With 10 years of surveillance, LE gains increased to 2.94 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 1.35 days). If we assumed a 10% increase in gallbladder cancer risk among individuals with polyps, LE gains increased slightly to 1.60 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities (men: 0.74 days). Results were sensitive to test performance and surgical mortality. DiscussionEven under unrealistic, optimistic assumptions of cancer control, ultrasound surveillance of incidentally detected small gallbladder polyps provided limited benefit.

Cascade testing of first-degree relatives of patients with pancreatic cancer with confirmed germline genetic mutations: A simulation modeling study.

10513 Background: Universal germline genetic testing is recommended for all patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In addition to treatment implications for the patient, it is valuable for family members of the PDAC patient to undertake germline testing to understand their familial cancer risk. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of cascade testing of first-degree relatives (FDRs) of PDAC patients to guide MRI-based screening for PDAC. Methods: We used a microsimulation model of PDAC to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) benefit of cascade genetic testing of FDRs of PDAC patients. Analysis was performed for eight mutations of interest (ATM, BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, Lynch, TP53, CDKN2A, STK11) with relative risk of PDAC ranging from 1.6 – 24. FDRs were defined by their sex, age, and information state (not informed, informed but not tested, test negative, or test positive). Family size and composition, communication of genetic testing results, and uptake of cascade testing were based on published studies. For each FDR group, we simulated multiple MRI-based screening strategies, defined by starting age (FDR age at patient diagnosis to age 75) and frequency (once or annual until age 75), and identified the strategy that resulted in the highest LE. Results: Each PDAC patient would have an average of 4.35 living FDRs. 1.32 of these living FDRs would be informed of the patient’s test results but not undergo testing themselves, and 1.03 would test positive for the mutation of interest. For lower risk mutations (ATM, BRCA2, PALB2), FDRs would only undergo screening if they test positive. For Lynch syndrome, not tested FDRs would undergo screening starting at age 65 or 70, whereas FDRs who test positive would start at 50 or 55. For STK11, the highest risk mutation, FDRs would start screening annually as soon as they are informed of the patient’s test results. The total LE gain for cascade testing of FDRs ranged from 0 (BRCA1) to 1.05 years (STK11). Conclusions: For each PDAC patient identified to have a germline genetic mutation, cascade testing of FDRs could add up to a year life expectancy for the family, in addition to the value of the germline information to the PDAC patient’s care. [Table: see text]

Genetic testing to guide screening for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma: Results of a microsimulation model

BackgroundFirst-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) have elevated PDAC risk, partially due to germline genetic variants. We evaluated the potential effectiveness of genetic testing to target MRI-based screening among FDRs. MethodsWe used a microsimulation model of PDAC, calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data, to estimate the potential life expectancy (LE) gain of screening for each of the following groups of FDRs: individuals who test positive for each of eight variants associated with elevated PDAC risk (e.g., BRCA2, CDKN2A); individuals who test negative; and individuals who do not test. Screening was assumed to take place if LE gains were achievable. We simulated multiple screening approaches, defined by starting age and frequency. Sensitivity analysis evaluated changes in results given varying model assumptions. ResultsFor women, 92% of mutation carriers had projected LE gains from screening for PDAC, if screening strategies (start age, frequency) were optimized. Among carriers, LE gains ranged from 0.1 days (ATM+ women screened once at age 70) to 510 days (STK11+ women screened annually from age 40). For men, LE gains were projected for all mutation carriers, ranging from 0.2 days (BRCA1+ men screened once at age 70) to 620 days (STK11+ men screened annually from age 40). For men and women who did not undergo genetic testing, or for whom testing showed no variant, screening yielded small LE benefit (0–2.1 days). ConclusionsGenetic testing of FDRs can inform targeted PDAC screening by identifying which FDRs may benefit.

The life expectancy benefits on respiratory diseases gained by reducing the daily concentration of particulate matter to attain different air quality standard targets: findings from a 5-year time-series study in Tianjin, China.

The short-term effects of particulate matter (PM) on years of life lost (YLL) have been confirmed by several studies; however, little attention has been paid to the effects of PM on life expectancy from respiratory diseases (RD), especially at the city level. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to assess the associations between daily PM and YLL of the RD and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) in Tianjin from 2015 to 2019. Then the daily avoidable YLL, attributable fraction, and potential life expectancy benefits (PLEB) of RD and COPD by reducing the daily concentration of PM2.5 and PM10 to attain the Chinese and World Health Organization (WHO) air quality standard targets were estimated during 2015-2019. The stratified analyses by gender were also conducted. A total of 18279 RD and 7767 COPD deaths were included in this study. Per 10μg/m3 increments in PM2.5 and PM10 at lag1 were significantly associated with 0.83(95%CI: 0.11, 1.55) years and 0.57(95%CI: 0.06, 1.08) years increasing in YLL of total RD and 0.48 (95%CI: 0.07, 0.90) years and 0.30 (95%CI: 0.01, 0.60) years increasing in YLL of total COPD. If the daily PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations decreased to attain the Chinese and WHO air quality standard targets, 0.06-0.39years PLEB due to total RD and 0.08-0.53years PLEB due to COPD could be gained. And more PLEB on RD could be gained by decreasing the daily PM concentrations to attain the WHO air quality standard targets than that of attaining the Chinese air quality standard targets. These evidence-based findings emphasize the importance of the Chinese PM-related guideline updating and may have implications for PM-related policy-making.

Potential Gains in Life Expectancy Associated With Achieving Treatment Goals in US Adults With Type 2 Diabetes

Improvements in control of factors associated with diabetes risk in the US have stalled and remain suboptimal. The benefit of continually improving goal achievement has not been evaluated to date. To quantify potential gains in life expectancy (LE) among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) associated with lowering glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), systolic blood pressure (SBP), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and body mass index (BMI) toward optimal levels. In this decision analytical model, the Building, Relating, Assessing, and Validating Outcomes (BRAVO) diabetes microsimulation model was calibrated to a nationally representative sample of adults with T2D from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2015-2016) using their linked short-term mortality data from the National Death Index. The model was then used to conduct the simulation experiment on the study population over a lifetime. Data were analyzed from January to October 2021. The study population was grouped into quartiles on the basis of levels of HbA1c, SBP, LDL-C, and BMI. LE gains associated with achieving better control were estimated by moving people with T2D from the current quartile of each biomarker to the lower quartiles. Life expectancy. Among 421 individuals, 194 (46%) were women, and the mean (SD) age was 65.6 (8.9) years. Compared with a BMI of 41.4 (mean of the fourth quartile), lower BMIs of 24.3 (first), 28.6 (second), and 33.0 (third) were associated with 3.9, 2.9, and 2.0 additional life-years, respectively, in people with T2D. Compared with an SBP of 160.4 mm Hg (fourth), lower SBP levels of 114.1 mm Hg (first), 128.2 mm Hg (second), and 139.1 mm Hg (third) were associated with 1.9, 1.5, and 1.1 years gained in LE in people with T2D, respectively. A lower LDL-C level of 59 mg/dL (first), 84.0 mg/dL (second), and 107.0 mg/dL (third) were associated with 0.9, 0.7, and 0.5 years gain in LE, compared with LDL-C of 146.2 mg/dL (fourth). Reducing HbA1c from 9.9% (fourth) to 7.7% (third) was associated with 3.4 years gain in LE. However, a further reduction to 6.8% (second) was associated with only a mean of 0.5 years gain in LE, and from 6.8% to 5.9% (first) was not associated with LE benefit. Overall, reducing HbA1c from the fourth quartile to the first is associated with an LE gain of 3.8 years. These findings can be used by clinicians to motivate patients in achieving the recommended treatment goals and to help prioritize interventions and programs to improve diabetes care in the US.

Therapeutic decisions under uncertainty for spinal muscular atrophy: The DECISIONS-SMA study protocol.

BackgroundThe therapeutic landscape for spinal muscular atrophy has changed in the last few years, encompassing respiratory/motor function and life expectancy benefits. However, physicians still have the challenge of tailoring individuals’ treatment to therapeutic goals, disease progression, patient/caregiver’s preferences, and personal experience to achieve an optimal risk/benefit balance. This study aims to provide insight into the preferred treatment choices of pediatric neurologists managing spinal muscular atrophy in their daily practice and to recognize behavioral factors that may influence decision-making.MethodsThis is a noninterventional, cross-sectional pilot study involving 50 pediatric neurologists managing spinal muscular atrophy in Spain. We designed an online platform that contains 13 simulated case scenarios of common presentations of patients with spinal muscular atrophy. The primary study outcome will be treatment preferences according to the percentages of participants who select treatment initiation when recommended, switch therapies when there is evidence of disease progression, and select treatment discontinuation when disease progression puts patients outside treatment recommendation (11 case scenarios). Secondary outcomes include therapeutic inertia prevalence (11 case scenarios), herding phenomenon prevalence (2 case scenarios), care-related regret prevalence (specific questions) and intensity (10-item Regret Intensity Scale), occupational burnout prevalence (nonproprietary single-item measure), and risk preferences (uncertainty test and risk aversion assessment).ConclusionsThe study findings will contribute to better understand relevant factors associated with therapeutic decisions of pediatric neurologists in spinal muscular atrophy, identifying treatment preferences and evaluating the role of behavioral aspects such as therapeutic inertia, herding, regret, and workplace burnout.

Reduction in daily ambient PM2.5 pollution and potential life gain by attaining WHO air quality guidelines in Tehran

BackgroundFine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is widely considered to be a top-ranked risk factor for premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL). However, evidence regarding the effect of daily air quality improvement on life expectancy is scarce, especially in the Middle East such as Iran. This study aimed to investigate the potential benefits in life expectancy at concentrations meeting the daily PM2.5 standards during 2012–2016 in Tehran, Iran. MethodsWe collected daily non-accidental mortality and data on air pollutants and weather conditions from Tehran, Iran, 2012–2016. A quasi-Poisson or Gaussian time-series regression was employed to fit the associations between ambient PM2.5 and mortality or YLL. Potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) and attributable fraction (AF) were estimated by assuming that daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the World Health Organization air quality guidelines (WHO AQG) 2005 (25 μg/m3) and 2021 (15 μg/m3). ResultsDuring the study period, a total of 221,231 non-accidental deaths were recorded in Tehran, resulting in 3.6 million YLL. The mean concentration of ambient PM2.5 was 34.7 μg/m3 (standard deviation: 15.3 μg/m3). For a 10-μg/m3 rise in 4-day moving average (lag 03-day) in PM2.5 concentration, non-accidental mortality and YLL increased by 1.12% (95% confidence interval: 0.60, 1.65) and 20.73 (7.08, 34.39) person years, respectively. A relatively higher effect was observed in males and young adults aged 18–64 years. We estimated that 39830 [AF = 1.1%] and 74284 [AF = 2.1%] YLL could potentially be avoided if daily PM2.5 concentrations attained the WHO AQG 2005 and 2021, respectively, which corresponded to potential gains in life expectancy of 0.18 (0.06, 0.30) and 0.34 (0.11, 0.56) years for each deceased person. PM2.5-associated PGLE estimates were largely robust when performing sensitivity analyses. ConclusionsOur findings indicated that short-term exposure to PM2.5 is associated with increased non-accidental YLL and mortality. Prolonged life expectancy could be achieved if the particulate matter air pollution level were kept under a stricter standard.

Spatiotemporal trends in life expectancy and impacts of economic growth and air pollution in 134 countries: A Bayesian modeling study

Life expectancy (LE) varies across countries in space and time, and economic growth and air pollution are two important influence factors to LE. This study mainly aims to investigate spatiotemporal trends in LE in 134 countries from 1960 to 2016 by using Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling. Further, the relations between per capita gross domestic product (GDPpc) and population-weighted fine particulate matter (pwPM2.5) and LE are investigated from a global perspective from 1998 to 2016 by using the Bayesian regression model. The results illustrated the heterogeneity of spatiotemporal trends in LE globally. Specifically, Africa and South-East Asia show much lower LE levels, and the Americas, European, and Western Pacific exhibit a relatively higher LE level compared to the overall level. The countries with low overall levels of LE show a relatively stronger upward trend than the overall upward trend and vice versa. In addition, this study demonstrates that the spatial differences in effects of influence factors on LE in the six WHO regions in the 134 countries. Africa shows the highest positive regression coefficient of GDPpc and lowest negative regression coefficient of pwPM2.5 on LE than other regions in the world. Furthermore, it shows the complexity of the interaction between economic growth and air pollution on LE across six WHO regions. Our findings suggest the public policies to reduce the health damage caused by air pollution, especially in Africa, Eastern Mediterranean, and Europe where the pwPM2.5 negatively affect the LE benefits from economic growth.

The burden of poor glycaemic control in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes in Sweden: A health economic modelling analysis based on nationwide data.

AimTo evaluate the economic and clinical burden associated with poor glycaemic control in Sweden, in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) initiating first‐line glucose‐lowering therapy.Materials and MethodsPopulation data were obtained from Swedish national registers. Immediate glycaemic control was compared with delays in achieving control of 1 and 3 years, with outcomes projected over 3, 10 and 50 years in the validated IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model. Glycaemic control was defined as glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) targets of 52, 48 and 42 mmol/mol, as recommended in Swedish guidelines, according to age and disease duration. Costs (expressed in 2019 Swedish krona [SEK]) were accounted from a Swedish societal perspective.ResultsImmediate glycaemic control was associated with population‐level cost savings of up to SEK 279 million and SEK 673 million versus delays of 1 and 3 years, respectively, as well as small population‐level life expectancy benefits of up to 1305 and 2590 life years gained. Reduced levels of burden were a result of lower incidence and delayed time to onset of diabetes‐related complications.ConclusionsEven in people with T2D initiating first‐line glucose‐lowering therapy, the economic burden of poor glycaemic control in Sweden is substantial, but could be reduced by early and effective treatment to achieve glycaemic targets.

Surveillance in Older Women With Incidental Ovarian Cysts: Maximal Projected Benefits by Age and Comorbidity Level.

The aim of this study was to estimate effects on life expectancy (LE) of imaging-based ovarian surveillance after detection ofincidental postmenopausal ovarian cysts, under different assumptions of patient age, comorbidity level, and cancer risk and detection. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to estimate LE benefits. Hypothetical cohorts of postmenopausal women with simple ovarian cysts were evaluated, with varied age (66-80 years) and comorbidity level (none, mild, moderate, severe). For each cohort, imaging "follow-up" (2 years) and "no-follow-up" strategies were compared. Consistent with current evidence, increased cancer risk in patients with cysts was not assumed; however, incident ovarian cancers could be detected during follow-up. To estimate theoretical maximal LE gains from follow-up, perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment during follow-up were assumed. This and other key assumptions were varied in sensitivity analysis. Projected LE gains from follow-up were limited. For 66-, 70-, 75-, and 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, LE gains were 5.1, 5.1, 4.5, and 3.7 days; with severe comorbidities, they were 3.5, 3.2, 2.7, and 2.1 days. With sensitivity of 50% for cancer detection, they were 3.7 days for 66-year-old women with no comorbidities and 1.3 days for 80-year-old women with severe comorbidities. When cancer risk for women with cysts was assumed to be elevated (1.1 times average risk), LE gains increased only modestly (5.6 and 2.3 days for analogous cohorts). Even in the circumstance of perfect ovarian cancer detection and treatment, surveillance of postmenopausal women (≥66 years of age) with simple cysts affords limited benefits, particularly in women with advanced age and comorbidities.

Interaction between the Number of Chemotherapy Cycles and Brachytherapy Dose/Volume Parameters in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Patients

Scarce data exist on concurrent chemotherapy in locally advanced cervical cancer (LACC) patients (pts) treated with image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). We examined the effect of a number of chemotherapy cycles and their interaction with brachytherapy dose/volume parameters. Clinical records of 209 consecutive pts treated for a LACC were reviewed. Pts received CRT concurrently with cisplatin 40 mg/m² or carboplatin AUC2. An additional cycle could have been delivered during the pulse-dose rate (PDR)-IGABT. The impact of a number of chemotherapy cycles on outcome was examined, as well as the interactions with dose volume parameters. The number of cycles was four in 55 (26.3%) pts, five in 154 (73.7%) including 101 receiving the fifth cycle during IGABT. Median follow-up was 5.5 years. Pts receiving five cycles had a better outcome on all survival endpoints, including three year local control rate (93.9% vs. 77.2%; p < 0.05). In the subgroup, only pts with tumor FIGO (Fédération Internationale de Gynécologie Obstétrique) stage ≤IIB or with CTVHR > 25 cm3 had a better outcome. Pts receiving four cycles with D90CTVHR > 80GyEQD2 had the same locoregional control–(LRC) as those receiving five cycles and achieving D90CTVHR ≤ 80 GyEQD2 (p = 0.75). An optimal propensity score matching the balance for the FIGO stage, CTVHR volume and D90CTVHR confirmed the effect, with the largest life expectancy benefit for locoregional failure-free survival (absolute gain: 1.5 years; p = 0.017). Long-term radiation-induced toxicity was not increased. Increasing the total number of cycles from 4 to 5 improved LFS, suggesting a place for systemic strategies aimed at in-field cooperation. Delivering an additional cycle at the time of brachytherapy did not increase morbidity and there permitted an increase in chemotherapy dose intensity.

Potential gains in life expectancy by attaining daily ambient fine particulate matter pollution standards in mainland China: A modeling study based on nationwide data.

Ambient fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) is one leading cause of disease burden, but no study has quantified the association between daily PM2.5 exposure and life expectancy. We aimed to assess the potential benefits in life expectancy by attaining the daily PM2.5 standards in 72 cities of China during 2013-2016. We applied a two-stage approach for the analysis. At the first stage, we used a generalized additive model (GAM) with a Gaussian link to examine the city-specific short-term association between daily PM2.5 and years of life lost (YLL); at the second stage, a random-effects meta-analysis was used to generate the regional and national estimations. We further estimated the potential gains in life expectancy (PGLE) by assuming that ambient PM2.5 has met the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS, 75 μg/m3) or the ambient air quality guideline (AQG) of the World Health Organization (WHO) (25 μg/m3). We also calculated the attributable fraction (AF), which denoted the proportion of YLL attributable to a higher-than-standards daily mean PM2.5 concentration. During the period from January 18, 2013 to December 31, 2016, we recorded 1,226,849 nonaccidental deaths in the study area. We observed significant associations between daily PM2.5 and YLL: each 10 μg/m3 increase in three-day-averaged (lag02) PM2.5 concentrations corresponded to an increment of 0.43 years of life lost (95% CI: 0.29-0.57). We estimated that 168,065.18 (95% CI: 114,144.91-221,985.45) and 68,684.95 (95% CI: 46,648.79-90,721.11) years of life lost can be avoided by achieving WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS in the study area, which corresponded to 0.14 (95% CI: 0.09-0.18) and 0.06 (95% CI: 0.04-0.07) years of gain in life expectancy for each death in these cities. We observed differential regional estimates across the 7 regions, with the highest gains in the Northwest region (0.28 years of gain [95% CI: 0.06-0.49]) and the lowest in the North region (0.08 [95% CI: 0.02-0.15]). Furthermore, using WHO's AQG and Chinese NAAQS as the references, we estimated that 1.00% (95% CI: 0.68%-1.32%) and 0.41% (95% CI: 0.28%-0.54%) of YLL could be attributable to the PM2.5 exposure at the national level. Findings from this study were mainly limited by the unavailability of data on individual PM2.5 exposure. This study indicates that significantly longer life expectancy could be achieved by a reduction in the ambient PM2.5 concentrations. It also highlights the need to formulate a stricter ambient PM2.5 standard at both national and regional levels of China to protect the population's health.

Cost-effectiveness of lung MRI in lung cancer screening.

Recent studies with lung MRI (MRI) have shown high sensitivity (Sn) and specificity (Sp) for lung nodule detection and characterization relative to low-dose CT (LDCT). Using this background data, we sought to compare the potential screening performance of MRI vs. LDCT using a Markov model of lung cancer screening. We created a Markov cohort model of lung cancer screening which incorporated lung cancer incidence, progression, and mortality based on gender, age, and smoking burden. Sensitivity (Sn) and Sp for LDCT were taken from the MISCAN Lung Microsimulation and Sn/Sp for MRI was estimated from a published substudy of the German Lung Cancer Screening and Intervention Trial. Screening, work-up, and treatment costs were estimated from published data. Screening with MRI and LDCT was simulated for a cohort of male and female smokers (2 packs per day; 36 pack/years of smoking history) starting at age 60. We calculated the screening performance and cost-effectiveness of MRI screening and performed a sensitivity analysis on MRI Sn/Sp and cost. There was no difference in life expectancy between MRI and LDCT screening (males 13.28 vs. 13.29 life-years; females 14.22 vs. 14.22 life-years). MRI had a favorable cost-effectiveness ratio of $258,169 in men and $403,888 in women driven by fewer false-positive screens. On sensitivity analysis, MRI remained cost effective at screening costs < $396 dollars and Sp > 81%. In this Markov model of lung cancer screening, MRI has a near-equivalent life expectancy benefit and has superior cost-effectiveness relative to LDCT. • In this Markov model of lung cancer screening, there is no difference in mortality between yearly screening with MRI and low-dose CT. • Compared to low-dose CT, screening with MRI led to a reduction in false-positive studies from 26 to 2.8% in men and 26 to 2.6% in women. • Due to similar life-expectancy and reduced false-positive rate, we found a favorable cost-effectiveness ratio of $258,169 in men and $403,888 in women of MRI relative to low-dose CT.

Potential survival benefits from optimized chemotherapy implementation in advanced ovarian cancer: Projections from a microsimulation model.

BackgroundOvarian cancer is often diagnosed in advanced stages, when survival is poor. Treatment advances have been made, but are inconsistently implemented. Our purpose was to project the maximum life expectancy gains that could be achieved in women with stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer if the implementation of available chemotherapy regimens could be optimized.MethodsWe used a microsimulation model to estimate life expectancy benefits associated with “optimized” implementation of four post-operative chemotherapy options: standard intravenous chemotherapy; intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy; bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy; and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy + intravenous chemotherapy. Optimized implementation was defined as follows. Patients triaged to primary cytoreductive surgery received intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and bevacizumab + intravenous chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Patients triaged to neoadjuvant chemotherapy received hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy at interval cytoreductive surgery if optimally or completely cytoreduced, and standard IV chemotherapy if suboptimally cytoreduced. Life expectancy associated with optimized implementation was compared with that of current utilization practices, estimated using published literature and the National Cancer Database. Effects of model uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analyses.ResultsLife expectancy associated with optimized implementation vs. current practice was 76.7 vs. 64.5 months (life expectancy gain = 12.2 months). Providing intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy to all eligible patients was the largest driver of life expectancy gains, due to both the potential benefit conferred by intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy and the proportion of eligible women who do not receive intraperitoneal + intravenous chemotherapy in current practice.ConclusionPopulation-level life expectancy in stage IIIC epithelial ovarian cancer could be substantially improved through greater uptake of available chemotherapy regimens.

Life Expectancy of Olympic Wrestling Champions in Comparison to the General Population.

Although it was presumed that moderate exercise is a healthy practice but long term high intensity exercise is not, studies observed a life expectancy benefit for both high-intensity endurance and fast power sports athlets, but the data for contact sports are conflicting. Therefore, the author aimed to investigate the life expectancy of Olympic wrestling champions in comparison to the general population. Characteristics, vital status and life-span of the male Olympic wrestling champions was collected (1896-2016). The life expectancy of Olympic champions was compared with matched individuals of the general population (by country, age, and year of birth) obtained from the human mortality database ( http://www.mortality.org ). Overall, 341 male Olympic wrestling champions with median age of 25 (IQR 24-28) years at their Olympic victory were included in this analysis. In total, 142 (41.6%) came of rich countries. The survival was not affected by weight class and country of origin. A significant life expectancy benefit for Olympic champions in comparison to the general population was observed. Male Olympic wrestling champions lived in mean 19.1 ± 19.1years longer than the matched individuals of the general population (respectively of their country of origin). A substantially lower mortality in male Olympic wrestling champions, compared with the general male population was observed. However, the results do not allow us to draw conclusions about the causes of this survival benefit.

Imaging Follow-up of Low-Risk Incidental Pancreas and Kidney Findings: Effects of Patient Age and Comorbidity on Projected Life Expectancy.

Purpose To determine the effects of patient age and comorbidity level on life expectancy (LE) benefits associated with imaging follow-up of Bosniak IIF renal cysts and pancreatic side-branch (SB) intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate LE benefits was developed. Hypothetical cohorts with varied age (60-80 years) and comorbidities (none, mild, moderate, or severe) were evaluated. For each finding, LE projections from two strategies were compared: imaging follow-up and no imaging follow-up. Under follow-up, it was assumed that cancers associated with the incidental finding were successfully treated before they spread. For patients without follow-up, mortality risks from Bosniak IIF cysts (renal cell carcinoma) and SBIPMNs (pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma) were incorporated. Model assumptions and parameter uncertainty were evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results In the youngest, healthiest cohorts (age, 60 years; no comorbidities), projected LE benefits from follow-up were as follows: Bosniak IIF cyst, 6.5 months (women) and 5.8 months (men); SBIPMN, 6.4 months (women) and 5.3 months (men). Follow-up of Bosniak IIF cysts in 60-year-old women with severe comorbidities yielded a LE benefit of 3.9 months; in 80-year-old women with no comorbidities, the benefit was 2.8 months, and with severe comorbidities the benefit was 1.5 months. Similar trends were observed in men and for SBIPMN. Results were sensitive to the performance of follow-up for cancer detection; malignancy risks; and stage at presentation of malignant, unfollowed Bosniak IIF cysts. Conclusion With progression of age and comorbidity level, follow-up of low-risk incidental findings yields increasingly limited benefits for patients. © RSNA, 2018 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

State transition model: vorapaxar added to standard antiplatelet therapy to prevent thrombosis post myocardial infarction or peripheral artery disease

Objective: To evaluate long-term health benefits and risks of adding vorapaxar (VOR) to the standard care antiplatelet therapy (SC) of aspirin and/or clopidogrel, among a population with a recent myocardial infarction (MI) and/or peripheral artery disease (PAD).Research design and methods: In a state-transition model, patients transition between health states (event-free, recurrent MI, stroke, death), while at risk of experiencing non-transition-related revascularization and non-fatal bleeding events. Risk equations developed from the TRA 2°P-TIMI 50 trial’s patient-level data were used to predict cardiovascular (CV) outcomes over longer time horizons. Additional sources, including trials and US-based observational studies, informed the inputs for short-term CV risk, non-CV death, and health-related quality of life. Survival and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated over a lifetime horizon, discounted at 3% per year.Results: Within a cohort of 7361 patients with recent MI and/or PAD, VOR + SC relative to SC alone yielded 176 fewer CV events (MIs, strokes, or CV deaths), but 27 more major bleeding events. VOR + SC was associated with increased life expectancy and health benefits (19.93 undiscounted life-years [LYs], 9.57 discounted QALYs vs. 19.61 undiscounted LYs, 9.41 discounted QALYs). The results were most sensitive to scenarios varying time of vorapaxar initiation, and the assumptions in the 90 day period post-MI. Additional analyses showed that add-on vorapaxar provides consistent incremental benefits in high-risk subgroups.Conclusion: This study contributes to the growing literature on secondary prevention add-on therapy, as results from these modeling analyses suggest that adding vorapaxar to SC for patients at high atherothrombotic risk can provide long-term health benefits.

Personalized life expectancy and treatment benefit index of antiretroviral therapy

BackgroundThe progression of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) within host includes typical stages and the Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) is shown to be effective in slowing down this progression. There are great challenges in describing the entire HIV disease progression and evaluating comprehensive effects of ART on life expectancy for HIV infected individuals on ART.MethodsWe develop a novel summative treatment benefit index (TBI), based on an HIV viral dynamics model and linking the infection and viral production rates to the Weibull function. This index summarizes the integrated effect of ART on the life expectancy (LE) of a patient, and more importantly, can be reconstructed from the individual clinic data.ResultsThe proposed model, faithfully mimicking the entire HIV disease progression, enables us to predict life expectancy and trace back the timing of infection. We fit the model to the longitudinal data in a cohort study in China to reconstruct the treatment benefit index, and we describe the dependence of individual life expectancy on key ART treatment specifics including the timing of ART initiation, timing of emergence of drug resistant virus variants and ART adherence.ConclusionsWe show that combining model predictions with monitored CD4 counts and viral loads can provide critical information about the disease progression, to assist the design of ART regimen for maximizing the treatment benefits.

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.