Belt Countries Research Articles

The Green Effects of China’s Direct Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Countries: Mechanisms and Empirical Testing

The Green Effects of China’s Direct Investment in Belt and Road Initiative Countries: Mechanisms and Empirical Testing

The Impact of Import and Export Trade on Carbon Emissions: Based on The Perspective of Belt and Road Countries

In the context of economic globalization, environmental issues have gradually attracted people's attention, and the "Belt and Road" Cooperation Initiative (hereinafter referred to as B&R) proposed by China aims to promote economic development at the same time, the environmental role has become particularly important. This study uses linear regression model, two-stage least square (2SLS) method and event study method to analyze the relationship between international trade and carbon emissions from the perspective of B&R countries. The results are as follows: the influence of import and export trade on carbon emissions is generally positive.; The correlation between industrial structure and carbon emission in the B&R countries is low. Joining the B&R has increased the volume of international trade to certain extent, thus increasing the carbon emissions of B&R countries.

Export opportunities for Turkey in China under the Belt and Road Initiative: application of a decision support model approach

Turkey's foreign trade deficit with China has rapidly increased since the 2000s. To reduce the foreign trade deficit with China, Turkey needs to identify and diversify potential commodities to export to China with higher competitiveness. In this aspect, this study identifies potential export opportunities for Turkey in China among the Belt and Road Initiative China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor countries to increase Turkey's total export volume and diversification in China. The decision support model with some crucial modifications in accordance with regional practices is implemented to pick the export commodities with the highest export potential value. The results of the modified decision support model indicate that Turkey can have export potential, mostly in textiles, metals, machinery/electrical, and miscellaneous. The export promotion strategies for increasing export diversification and volume in China are recommended for Turkey’s future export strategy.

Assessing the impact of international trade on ecological footprint in Belt and Road Initiative countries

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one such comprehensive plan that aims to boost economic growth and connectivity across Africa, Asia, and Europe. While the effort may be good for boosting exports and foreign direct investment (FDI), some are worried about the toll it may take on the environment. Therefore, we aim to examine the effect of international trade and FDI on the ecological footprint in BRI countries, considering the mediating role of the environmental performance index. The CCEMG estimator was used to examine the impacts of imports, exports, FDI, population growth, urbanization, and the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) on the global ecological footprint. Our findings show that export has a positive relationship with ecological footprint. Similarly, imports and FDI revealed a positive association with the ecological footprint. Finally, environmental performance revealed a negative association with ecological footprint in BRI countries. Our findings support the pollution haven theory by demonstrating the critical importance of environmental regulations in enticing responsible investors. By using the ecological footprint as an all-encompassing measure of environmental effect, this study sheds light on the need to incorporate sustainability within the goals of the BRI. This research emphasizes the importance of adopting well-informed methods to promote sustainable development and mitigate the BRI's adverse environmental impacts.

Can agricultural mechanization promote carbon reduction in countries along the Belt and Road?

Whether agricultural mechanization can drive carbon reduction in Belt and Road countries remains an unanswered question. This paper investigates how agricultural mechanization can contribute to agricultural carbon emissions reduction in countries along the Belt and Road, and to test whether technological progress can play a moderating role. The findings show that: 1) agricultural mechanization can effectively promote carbon emission reduction in countries along the Belt and Road; 2) countries with a high level of technological progress can effectively reduce agricultural carbon emissions by improving agricultural mechanization, and technological progress plays a positive regulating role; 3) agricultural mechanization is regionally heterogeneous and income heterogeneous, and its carbon-reducing effects are more pronounced in Asia, low- and middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries. The results of the study provide lessons for climate governance and agricultural development in countries along the Belt and Road and help governments to formulate relevant policies.

Foreign trade, foreign direct investment, and urban inequality: The effects of China

ABSTRACT The concentration of population and socioeconomic activities in large cities in developing countries has sparked broad concerns regarding inequality in national urban systems (NUS). This paper examines how Chinese foreign trade and overseas foreign direct investment (OFDI) affected host countries’ NUS from 2000 to 2018. Chinese foreign trade reduced NUS inequality, particularly countries with more cultural distance from China, while OFDI increased NUS inequality only in mineral-rich countries. For Asian Belt and Road countries (BRCs), Chinese foreign trade reduced NUS inequality, especially those with greater institutional distance to China and more government intervention. Chinese OFDI plays the opposite effect, notably for high government intervention countries. Globally, roles of foreign trade and OFDI change with resource endowments and cultural distance, while for Asian BRCs, these roles change with institutional distance and government intervention. This paper bridges gaps in the effects of Chinese foreign trade and OFDI on NUS inequality.

Assessing the Role of Sustainability Disclosure on Firms’ Financial Performance: Evidence from the Energy Sector of Belt and Road Initiative Countries

This study examines the influence of sustainability disclosure on a firm’s financial performance in the energy sector, taking into account the role of ownership concentration as a moderating factor. This study utilized secondary data from 239 energy companies from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) nations from 2009 to 2022. This study employed the Common Correlated Effect Mean Group and the Pooled Mean Group estimators for the analysis. To determine which component of sustainability disclosure influences a firm’s financial performance, this study divided the measurement of sustainability into three themes: environment, social, and governance. The findings revealed a positive relationship between environmental disclosure and financial performance. Similarly, we found a positive relationship between social disclosure and financial performance. However, governance disclosure does not contribute to financial performance. Furthermore, we found that ownership concentration positively moderates the association between environmental disclosure and financial performance, as well as social disclosure and financial performance. The results suggest that energy firms in developing countries should prioritize disclosing their environmental and social policies to ensure long-term financial performance.

Infrastructure development as a driver of trade liberalization in the belt and road initiative african countries: A case study from Kenya

Several studies have been carried out on the determinants of international trade. However, little is known about the relationship between infrastructure development and international trade in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in general and in Kenya in particular. This article examines the effect of infrastructure development on international trade. Thus, it concerns the analysis of Kenya’s economy during the period 1980-2021.The Autoregressive and Distributed Lags (ARDL) method is employed as estimation technique and different types of infrastructures such as rail lines, paved roads and access to electricity have been highlighted. Moreover, two indicators of international trade named external trade rate and Squalli and Wilson index were employed. The results revealed that access to electricity, paved roads as well as rail lines improve Kenya's external trade rate in the long run. However, no significant relationship was found in the short run. Moreover, the robostness of the results was confirmed with the Squalli and Wilson index. Therefore, Kenya’s goverment must pursue its national infrastructure development program with the support of other development partners by emphasizing the intensification of electricity, the construction of roads and railway lines. To achieve its infrastructure goals Kenya needs to develop the second phase of the Country Strategy Document.

Income distribution and sustainable development nexus: Fostering poverty reduction and integrated sustainability amidst multi-dimensional regional integration

This study investigates the impact of income distribution as poverty reduction on sustainable development (SD), by taking the moderating role multidimensional regional integration (MRII) in fostering the integrated sustainability across 64 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries from 2005 to 2020. Utilising Sys-GMM methodology, the findings support the notion that countries within the BRI are theoretically aligned with a sustainable development path as suggested by economic theory. Moreover, MRII significantly contributes to the integrated sustainability path. The direct channel analysis reveals a negative yet significant effect of income distribution on sustainable development, indicating an increase in disparity and capital management system. Conversely, the indirect channel suggests a reduction in disparity and regionally integrated BRI boost the sustainable poverty reduction. This study identifies positive contributions from macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality, and population size to BRI countries' sustainable development. Additionally, it suggests the inefficient utilisation of resources by BRI countries, particularly in government consumption. The study underscores the need for enhanced regional policies aimed at increasing income and reducing poverty to foster sustainable development. Upcoming research should investigate the unexplored effects of household consumption, financial inclusion, financial aid, and energy poverty influence on integrated sustainability, regarding global financial integration.

The Relationship between Natural Resource Abundance and Human Development in Belt and Road Initiative Countries: The Role of Financial Development

The goal of this study is to explore the relationship between natural resource abundance and human development. In particular, account for the role of financial development. This study uses data from 51 BRI countries over the period 2000-2018. Concerning the HDI, the results suggest U-shaped relationship between total natural resource rents and HDI. Similarly, gas rents, mineral rents and oil rents are non-linearly related to HDI in BRI countries. For example, in the case of total rents, once its share in GDP exceeds 42.8%, further dependence on natural resources leads to increase in HDI. In our sample, only Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman were above the turning points at some observation years. The interaction term is positive and significant. This implies that increase in natural resource rents in countries with higher levels of financial development does not lead to a reduction of human development. In a similar vein, domestic credit to private sector alleviates negative effect of oil and mineral rents.

Geospatial analysis of spatial distribution, patterns, and relationships of health status in the belt and road initiative

The Health Silk Road plays a crucial role in the Belt and Road Initiative, and comprehending the health status within the participating countries is fundamental for fostering cooperation in public health. This paper collected five health indicators to represent the health status of the Belt and Road countries. Employing spatial statistics, the spatial patterns of health indicators and the associations with influencing factors were investigated. The utilized spatial statistics encompass spatial autocorrelation methods, geographical detector and spatial lag model. The results revealed obvious disparities and significant positive spatial autocorrelation of health indicators within the Belt and Road countries. Specifically, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa exhibited significant clustering of limited health indicators, while countries in Europe and Central Asia demonstrated significant clustering of robust health indicators. Furthermore, the health indicators exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity and association with the influencing factors. Universal health coverage, household air pollution, and the prevalence of undernourishment emerge as influential factors affecting health indicators. Overall, our findings highlighted complex influencing factors that contributed to the profound health inequalities across the Belt and Road countries. These factors should be duly considered in public health collaborations within the Belt and Road Initiative.

Impact of FDI on Sustainable Growth in Belt and Road Economies

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Belt and Road countries during 1990-2020. Our findings suggest that a 10% increase in FDI relative to GDP is associated with only 0.9 percentage points increase in GDP growth. The results are held after including control variables. The results can be explained based on the facts that forces investors and companies to invest their money in foreign projects including relatively lower cost of deployment, the access to resources, favorable financial environment and developed financial markets. These elements collectively shape the impact of FDI on economic growth in the Belt and Road countries. Future research on the FDI-growth nexus in Belt and Road countries should concentrate on causal links and potential indirect pathways by which FDI can influence economic growth.

Spatial and temporal patterns of disease burden attributable to high BMI in Belt and Road Initiative countries, 1990-2019.

This study aimed to analyse the spatial and temporal patterns of disease burden attributed to high BMI (DB-hBMI) from 1990 to 2019 in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries, in light of increasing hBMI prevalence worldwide. The study was a secondary analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019) that analysed (using Joinpoint regression analysis) numbers and the age-standardised rate of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) of hBMI-induced diseases and their trends from 1990 to 2019 and in the final decade. GBD 2019 study data for BRI countries were categorised by country, age, gender and disease. GBD 2019 data were used to analyse DB-hBMI in BRI countries. In 2019, China, India and Russia reported the highest mortality and DALY among BRI countries. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardised DALY increased in Southeast Asia and South Asia, whereas many European countries saw declines. Notably, Bangladesh, Nepal and Vietnam showed the steepest increases, with average annual percentage change (AAPC) values of 4·42%, 4·19% and 4·28%, respectively (all P<0·05). In contrast, Israel, Slovenia and Poland experienced significant reductions, with AAPC values of -1·70%, -1·63% and -1·58%, respectively (all P<0·05). The most rapid increases among males were seen in Vietnam, Nepal and Bangladesh, while Jordan, Poland and Slovenia recorded the fastest declines among females. Across most BRI countries, the burden of diabetes and kidney diseases related to hBMI showed a significant uptrend. DB-hBMI varies significantly by region, age, gender and disease type across BRI countries. It can pose a substantial threat to public health.

Role of income in pollution and growth across Belt and Road Initiative countries: new insights from dynamic functional regression model

Role of income in pollution and growth across Belt and Road Initiative countries: new insights from dynamic functional regression model

“The Belt and Road Initiative” Linguistic Strategic Planning for Ethnic Social Integration Supported by Computational Models

Abstract This paper explores the impact of “The Belt and Road Initiative” language strategic planning on the integration of ethnic societies by analyzing the role of language policy in promoting ethnic understanding, economic cooperation, and cultural exchanges. The paper constructs a theoretical framework for analyzing the impact of language on economic growth, reveals the deep-rooted mechanism of the economic development effect of language capital, and establishes a PVAR model to empirically analyze the language capital effect of China’s OFDI. Empirical testing of the impact of comprehensive linguistic similarity on culture among the Belt and Road countries is done through QAP analysis. The analysis shows that the official languages of each country have a significant promotion effect on OFDI in non-English-speaking countries (P&lt;0.01). The economic growth spillover effects are all greater than 0, indicating that the economic growth rates of countries with similar languages are mutually influential. The combined linguistic similarity between countries plays a significant facilitating effect on cultural flows (p&lt;0.01) and cultural preferences and a hindering effect on high cultural flows (standardized regression coefficient &lt;0).

Role of Income in Pollution and Growth across Belt and Road Initiative countries: New Insights from Dynamic Functional Regression Model

Role of Income in Pollution and Growth across Belt and Road Initiative countries: New Insights from Dynamic Functional Regression Model

Currency risk analysis of belt and road initiative countries.

The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the role of debt sustainability in achieving sustainable development. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international cooperation effort that is endorsed by over 150 countries and organizations. Given the alignment between BRI development goals and the SDGs, the issue of debt sustainability in BRI countries warrants attention. While existing studies focus on sovereign risk in debt sustainability, there is a lack of emphasis on currency risk, indicating a need for further investigation to mitigate risks and comprehensively evaluate debt stability. Using data from 142 countries, this study examines currency risk reduction in BRI countries by assessing currency competitiveness. We find that the US dollar (USD) is the most competitive currency among BRI countries, followed by the Euro (EUR), Chinese yuan (CNY), sterling pound (GBP), and Japanese yen (JPY). The USD maintains its competitive edge over time, making it the preferred choice, with the EUR as a less optimal option and the CNY showing potential. Geographically, the EUR's close ties with BRI countries lend it prominence, followed by the USD, with the CNY gaining traction. GBP and JPY are considered conservative choices. Recommendations for currency selection vary based on countries' competitiveness, bilateral relationships, and development status.

The Impact of China's Foreign Direct Investment on the GDP of Belt and Road Initiative Countries

The Impact of China's Foreign Direct Investment on the GDP of Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Exchange Rate Movements and China-East Africa Trade Balance: A New Perspective From RMB

This study estimates the long-term impact of Chinese RMB exchange rate movements on the trade balance between China and the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative countries. The Pedroni cointegration analysis and the fully modified and dynamic OLS techniques are applied to the dataset from UNComtrade and China Statistical Yearbook 2019. Some specification novelties are the use of imports and exports as independent variables. By so doing, the paper proposes an alternative measure of the trade balance. We find that the RMB exchange rate movements are stable during the sample period and slightly affect the trade balance between China and the Eastern African BRI countries. Additionally, the study does not find evidence supporting the J-curve effect in China-East Africa trade balance. The empirical results suggest that the Eastern African BRI countries would gain much more trading collectively with China than individually. Therefore, the study strongly recommends that the East African Community accelerate its integration process and establish Export Quotas for trade outside the bloc.

Navigating Banking Sector Concentration and Institutional Quality for Sustainable Energy Development: Insights from Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Navigating Banking Sector Concentration and Institutional Quality for Sustainable Energy Development: Insights from Belt and Road Initiative Countries