Belt And Road Research Articles

A governance perspective on China’s belt and road initiative: a case study of the Sino-Thai railway project

ABSTRACT This study examines a project in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from a governance perspective, according to which the BRI is constructed through negotiations involving a diverse range of actors. The analysis focuses on the relationships among actors with different interests and resources, and traces how these shaped the design of the project. This approach differs from broader geostrategic discourses of the BRI. While the geostrategic perspectives have enriched our understanding of China’s policies, the governance perspective offers a valuable bridging theory to inform analyses of how BRI projects are designed and implemented on the ground. The analysis was carried out using extensive documents from the Thai government, and interviews were conducted to enhance and refine the analysis. The Sino-Thai railway project highlights how the actors involved in bureaucratic processes and the network relations among them at domestic and bilateral levels have significant impacts on project design.

Digitalization and Cyber Security Policies in Uzbekıstan's Institutions and Sectors in One Belt One Road Project

The diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT) into a rapidly growing area of global trade has contributed significantly to the gains made by companies and governments. Increasing consumption at the international level and the desire for faster and more reliable delivery of goods have led to the emergence of new sectors. In this context, states, other government agencies, and the private sector have sought to enhance their bilateral relations and investments and establish strategic partnerships to develop new fast, and reliable trade networks. While actions and activities in cyberspace and digital spaces have provided significant convenience and opportunities, they have also led to significant security concerns. The purpose of this study is to examine and evaluate the contribution of the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative to the digitalization of Uzbekistan and the policies pursued by Uzbekistan in this regard, and to investigate the effects of public and private sector institutional cooperation in the One Belt, One Road project. The content analysis method was applied, one of the qualitative research methods. The study was also strengthened with the SWOT analysis method. By comparing relevant documents and sources on the subject, the aim of the study was concluded. The studies carried out to increase Uzbekistan's cyber capacity, the importance of maintaining strong cyber security policies through technology transfer, the challenges and legal regulations, institutional and sectoral cooperation, and their effects are the problem statements within the outline of the purpose of the study.

A time-space network-based model for transportation service optimization of China Railway Express

This paper describes the development and optimization plans for the China Railway Express (CR Express). As a new type of international land transport organization, CR Express has emerged with the continuous expansion of China toward European investment and trade, and in particular, has expanded with the continuous progress of the One Belt and One Road (OBOR) initiative. In addition to improving the service quality of CR Express, the operating costs must be reduced for developing “smart railways” that serve “smart cities”. We propose a dual-objective-based function mathematical optimization model; the satisfaction of the cargo owner is considered, and the timeliness, transportation capacity, and goods category constraints of CR Express transportation are designed. Moreover, we present the normalized equivalent method of the two-objective function of the model. Finally, a case study is conducted against the background of certain trains in the western corridor of CR Express to validate the effectiveness of the model and research methods proposed in this study.

What determines global sentiment towards China’s Belt and Road Initiative?

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is one of the most important geopolitical phenomena of this century. It signals China’s increasing clout overseas while focussing on trade links and infrastructure in general. An important question which has not yet been fully answered is how different countries perceive this initiative, whether they are part of it or not. To answer this question, a large media repository, GDELT, is used to assess each country’s perceptions of the BRI and how they evolve over time. The main finding is that global sentiment on the BRI deteriorated significantly in most geographies from 2017 to 2022, although generally still in positive territory. Further, an empirical analysis is conducted to test the relationship between individual countries’ sentiment towards the BRI and three possible determinants, i.e. economic linkages with China, geopolitical closeness with China, and a country’s perceptions and attitudes about some China-related issues. The results suggest that import dependence on China seems to worsen the image of the BRI. Instead, a country’s geopolitical alignment with China, whether by being a member of the BRI or by voting at the United Nations (UN) like China, is positively correlated with its perceptions of the BRI.

A third player: Chinese linguistic and cultural influence at a UAE university

ABSTRACT As part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a series of large-scale projects have been launched in the Arab Gulf due to its geopolitically strategic position. We examine the influence of Chinese as a third player, in addition to Arabic and English, in a UAE university educationscape together with Emirati students’ attitudes towards its influence. The study takes a case study approach, which employs open-ended questionnaires with university students (n = 40), semi-structured interviews with university students (n = 3) and a university Confucius Institute director and visual data from a walking ethnography of university social, learning, and online spaces. Data are analysed thematically via the lens of ‘Critical, Cultural Political Economy of Education’ (CCPEE), which brings together a range of concepts to interrogate globalising processes within an ‘education ensemble’. Key findings revealed a growing influence and awareness of Chinese language and culture in the UAE as well as generally positive attitudes towards such growth. There was, however, less interest in learning Chinese in comparison with other languages such as Korean and Turkish connected with soft power and media presence via dramas and music. Implications of the findings are discussed in relation to informing future language policy directions in the UAE.

Can the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ initiative improve the opening-up of China’s coastal provinces?

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) serves as China’s blueprint and major strategy for opening-up in the new era. This study theoretically examines three mechanisms of the ‘21st Century Maritime Silk Road’ (CMSR) to promote the opening up of provinces and cities along the line, including the allocation, integration, and circulation mechanisms. Using 2009–2021 data from prefecture-level cities, this study designed a quasi-natural experiment based on the CMSR by combining propensity score matching (PSM) and differences-in-differences (DID) methods. The study findings show CMSR significantly promoted China’s opening-up. Various robustness tests demonstrate that our findings are robust. Mechanism analysis shows that CMSR improved China’s opening-up by promoting the flow of production factors, integrating domestic and international product markets, and accelerating circulation. Heterogeneity analysis shows that CMSR strongly influences large, coastal, and nonprovincial cities. These findings provide a new perspective for evaluating the policy effects of the 21st CMSR.

From Resource curse to digital economy Harmony in selected Belt and Road countries

This study explores how the digital economy affects the resource curse in Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. Using data from 27 BRI nations (2001–2020) and fixed effect panel data analysis, we find that increased digital access and technology imports reduce resource dependency. Specifically, a 1% rise in computers per 100 inhabitants correlates with a 0.17% decrease in oil rent, indicating digital access aids economic diversification. Conversely, a 1% increase in internet access tariffs leads to a 0.29% rise in oil rent, impeding diversification. Additionally, a 1% increase in ICT goods imports results in a 0.64% decrease in oil rent. Positive coefficients for electricity consumption and population size suggest intensified resource curse effects. We recommend policies to enhance digital accessibility and technology imports, improve electricity infrastructure, and promote renewable energy sources to mitigate the resource curse in BRI countries.

Can friend-shoring policies improve export resilience? A study based on the Belt and Road initiative

This paper investigates the role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in enhancing the export resilience of countries along its route. It calculates the export resilience for 145 products in 130 countries from 1990 to 2018, using the Economic Vulnerability Index released by the Committee for Development Policy of the United Nations. Employing a Difference-in-Differences analysis, the BRI’ impact on the export resilience of each product by country is examined. The findings reveal a significant positive effect of the BRI on the export resilience of countries along its route, indicating an improvement in their export performance and risk resistance. It has been proven that regional economic integration promotes the security and stability of industrial chains. This conclusion helps countries effectively respond to the rising risks of external shocks in the rapidly changing global economic landscape and expands current academic exploration on resilience. The results also show that the BRI's impact has a three-year lag, consistent with its gradual implementation characteristics and demonstrating its effectiveness. The heterogeneity analysis reveals a greater impact on low-income countries, highlighting the need for those countries to enhance regional economic cooperation. This paper also points out the necessity for China's less developed border regions to increase openness and strengthen international connections.

A Comprehensive Accounting of Construction Materials in Belt and Road Initiative Projects.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) stands as the most ambitious infrastructure project in history, marked by its scale of investment, extensive geographical reach across continents and countries, and a diverse array of projects from roads to digital networks. While the BRI's environmental sustainability has raised concerns, the impacts of construction materials used in these projects have been overlooked, especially in developing countries. Here, we map and account for the materials embodied in the BRI by integrating, for the first time, official governmental project reports, geographical information, and material flow analysis. We pinpoint and analyze the BRI material stocks in each individual project by material types, countries, regions, and sectors. Between 2008 and 2023, 328 million tons of construction materials have accumulated in 540 BRI projects around the world, mostly in Asia and Africa. Aggregates (sand and gravel) constitute the largest share (82%), followed by cement, steel, and other materials. Most of the materials are used in transportation infrastructure. Our work further highlights some limitations in terms of data quality for such sustainability assessments. By shedding light on the significant impact of BRI projects on raw material usage across the globe, this study sets the stage for further investigations into environmental impacts of BRI and material stock-flow-nexus from perspective of an initiative.

Strategic Evaluation of China’s Foreign Assistance in Vocational and Technical Education: A Case Study of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

This study examines China’s foreign assistance and cooperation strategies in vocational and technical education (TVET) with a focus on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and associated projects. It highlights key initiatives such as the Punjab Tianjin University of Technology and the "Luban Workshop," which reflect China's commitment to advancing vocational education in Pakistan. Through a detailed analysis, the study identifies the effectiveness of these projects in meeting educational needs, the challenges faced, and the strategic alignment with broader initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Pakistan’s Vision 2025. Findings reveal that while significant progress has been made in improving educational quality and infrastructure, challenges remain in sustainability, market alignment, and support mechanisms. The study concludes with recommendations for enhancing future TVET projects, emphasizing the need for robust collaboration, sustainability, and flexibility to address emerging challenges. This research contributes valuable insights into international cooperation in vocational education and offers guidance for policymakers and practitioners involved in similar initiatives.

ICT diffusion, E-governance, and sustainability in the digital era

This study analyses the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) diffusion and e-governance on sustainability in 148 Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) partner countries. It considers control variables such as institutional quality, urbanization, research and development (R&D), and the COVID-19 effect as dummy variables. Two step-generalised method of moments analysis of a panel dataset of 148 BRI partner countries from 2013 to 2021 reveals that ICT diffusion and e-governance benefit sustainability, with R&D and institutional quality also making positive contributions, while urbanization and the pandemic negatively impact sustainability. The findings were validated through D-K regression checks and support the technology spill-over effect, innovation, triple bottom line, endogenous growth, and stakeholder theories. They highlight the significance of investing in ICT infrastructure and digital literacy programs, improving institutional reforms and governance practices, putting sustainable urban planning into practice, and supporting R&D projects to advance sustainability in BRI partner nations. This study clarifies the potential problems brought forth by the pandemic and makes suggestions for reducing its negative effects on sustainability. It contributes to evidence-based decision-making, guiding sustainable practices in BRI partner nations.

BEYOND RHETORIC: CHINA'S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY IN KENYA THROUGH A POLITICAL-ECONOMIC LENS (2013-2020)

This article explores the evolution of China-Kenya relations within the context of China's broader public diplomacy strategy, focusing particularly on the period from 2013 to 2020. The foundation for these bilateral relations was laid as China opened up to developing countries and African nations gained independence. While formal diplomatic relations between China and Kenya were established in 1963, it was during the 2000s that these relations diversified significantly under the leadership of Chinese President Hu Jintao and Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki. This diversification spanned commercial, cultural, and political domains, becoming a notable example of public diplomacy. With the ascension of Chinese President Xi Jinping, China's public diplomacy experienced a strategic shift towards a more assertive and politically oriented approach. This study argues that under Xi Jinping, new initiatives and strategic plans were introduced, enhancing the existing framework of China's public diplomacy. A key element of this transformation was the increased emphasis on foreign aid, which gained momentum through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Between 2013 and 2020, China's foreign aid to Kenya played a pivotal role in reshaping the structure of Chinese public diplomacy. This period saw a continuation and expansion of activities in culture and media, established in earlier phases, alongside a growing focus on infrastructure development, humanitarian aid, healthcare assistance, and educational and cultural projects. The study begins by examining traditional public diplomacy tools such as cultural exchanges, high-level visits, and educational initiatives. It then discusses specific projects implemented between 2013 and 2020, analyzing their contributions to public diplomacy efforts. Finally, the article provides an overview of these projects, as documented in AidData, highlighting their impact on the bilateral relations between China and Kenya.

AI for Sustainable Development in the Belt and Road Countries - Need for Capacity Building

All United Nations member countries are striving to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with information and communication technologies (ICTs) playing a crucial role in accelerating the progress. However, there is a significant disparity in technological capacities between the least developed, developing, and developed nations. Leading countries maintain dominance in these technologies, creating a digital divide that redefines richness and poverty. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), launched by China in 2013, offers a beacon of hope for developing nations. Over the past decade, China has introduced the Global Development Initiative (GDI), Global Security Initiative (GSI), and Global Civilizations Initiative (GCI) under BRI, benefiting many developing countries. Despite these advancements, many BRI member countries lack the capacity to fully utilize these technologies and maintain the infrastructure so developed by China. There is an urgent need for education and capacity building to ensure these nations can leverage AI and ICTs for sustainable development. Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming education by offering personalized learning experiences, optimizing administrative processes, and facilitating data-driven decision-making. AI-powered educational tools can adapt to individual student needs, enhancing engagement and learning outcomes. However, transitioning from traditional to technology-driven education systems requires robust capacity-building efforts to equip educators and institutions with the necessary skills and knowledge. Collaboration between governments, academia, industry, and civil society is essential for driving innovation and integrating AI responsibly and inclusively in education. This paper highlights the need for capacity building, particularly for students at all educational levels, to prepare them for future challenges and to achieve the SDGs through AI and technology-driven education.

Renewable energy transition and regional integration: Energizing the pathway to sustainable development

This study examines the influence of renewable energy transition on sustainable development, with multi-dimensional regional integration as a moderator. Using various regression techniques, a balanced panel dataset was analyzed for 64 countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and three sub-regions (Asia, Europe, and Middle East-Africa) from 2005 to 2020. The findings reveal a positive relationship between renewable energy transition and sustainable development across the full panel and sub-regions of the BRI. Multi-dimensional regional integration also positively influences sustainable development. The interaction of regional integration with renewable energy transitions positively moderates sustainable development in Asia and Europe but negatively in the Middle East-African economies. Macroeconomic conditions, institutional quality, and population size positively affect sustainable development for the full panel, with mixed effects in sub-regions. Conversely, government consumption negatively impacts sustainable development for both the full and regional panels of the BRI. This study underscores important policy implications for promoting a balanced transition from conventional energy sources to renewables, thereby fostering green economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social inclusion.

International higher education as knowledge diplomacy: The role of Chinese universities in China’s belt and road initiative

As an important player in China’s international relations, Chinese universities have been actively involved in China’s international development projects along China’s “Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)” routes. In this study, three Chinese universities are invited to share their collaborative education projects with three developing regions of the world: Central Asia, South East Asia and Africa. Using knowledge diplomacy as a theoretical lens to examine the three cases, this study aims to describe and evaluate the role of Chinese universities in the BRI programs in meeting the urgent talent needs of key infrastructure and energy industries in the global south. Through these three cases, the study also aims to shed light on China’s economic goals in international education that are currently absent in policy documents and academic literature.

CHINESE YUAN EXCHANGE RATE AGAINST THE INDONESIAN RUPIAH PREDICTION USING SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION

This study aims to forecast the exchange rate between the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) using Support Vector Regression (SVR), a machine-learning technique that can handle nonlinear and complex data. The authors utilize the monthly selling exchange rate of CNY against IDR from January 2012 to October 2023 sourced from the “investing” platform. The optimal SVR model is obtained by splitting the data into 113 training samples and 28 testing samples and using the Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel. The model achieves high accuracy, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.738%, a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 50.661 for the training data and a MAPE of 2.516%, and an RMSE of 64.735 for the testing data. The results of this paper can provide valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and traders who are interested in the CNY/IDR exchange rate dynamics and the economic implications of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The study aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 8, aiming to promote sustained, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth.

Assessing the Belt and Road Initiative’s environmental footprint: an impact evaluation analysis of African member countries

This empirical study undertakes a rigorous examination of the environmental sustainability impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its member countries. Employing a robust difference-in-difference quasi-natural experimental technique, our analysis spans a panel of 69 countries, covering the years from 1990 to 2022. Our primary metric for assessing ecological strain is the total Ecological Footprint consumption (EFP), measured in global hectares, which encapsulates the ecological exhaustion resulting from economic activities. This study not only contributes to the growing body of literature on the BRI’s economic, social, and environmental impacts but also distinguishes itself by providing experimental evidence of its environmental repercussions 10 years post-initiative commencement for member countries and 4 years for African countries in which the majority joined in 2018. Our findings reveal a significant increase in ecological footprint consumption among the BRI member countries after 2014, implying that participation in the BRI has contributed to heightened ecological depletion in these nations. Additionally, our analysis highlights the same impact for African countries, where ecological footprint consumption substantially escalated after joining the BRI in 2018. This pivotal discovery calls for the attention of not only the Chinese government, a driving force behind the BRI, but also all member countries partaking in this international collaboration. It signals a potential ecological deficit and future productivity impairment, urging stakeholders to reconsider and address the environmental ramifications of their endeavors.

Based on ideology theory: a corpus-oriented analysis of the UK traditional media coverage of China's belt and road initiative

ABSTRACT This article examines the depiction of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in elite English media across Europe to discern sentiments and ideological disparities between China and the Western world. Using the PRISMA method, 1826 relevant research articles on the BRI were identified, and 42 were selected for detailed analysis. Additionally, 1357 news articles from the Financial Times, The Guardian and BBC from 2015 to 2023 underwent linguistic corpus analysis. Employing a three-dimensional critical discourse analysis (3d-CDA), the study scrutinized sample news articles, revealing ideological underpinnings across various dimensions and frames. The analysis indicates a growing negativity towards the BRI in European English media, with sentiments averaging 38% from 2015 to 2023 and peaking at 56% and 54% in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Ideological differences often discussed in academic circles include a contrast between the emphasis on individualism in the West and the values of collectivism prominent in Chinese culture. However, it is important to recognize the diversity within these broad categories. This research offers insights for BRI stakeholders and enriches academic discourse with updated data. Its novelty lies in its dual-tiered approach to news relevance for content analysis and the application of three-dimensional CDA to BRI news discourse, revealing ideological disparities not previously explored.

Indo-Pakistan rivalry and integrated ring balancing: prospects and challenges to regional stability in South Asia

ABSTRACT Pakistan's security landscape faces unprecedented challenges due to India's burgeoning power and its strategic alignment with the United States. This study proposes an innovative ‘Integrated Ring Balancing’ framework to navigate this complex geopolitical environment. The framework operates across three tiers: Tier 1: Direct engagement with immediate neighbors – India, Iran, China, and Afghanistan. Tier 2: Building robust linkages with the neighbors of Pakistan's Tier 1 partners, encompassing South Asia, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Tier 3: Leveraging major powers – China, Russia, and the United States – through Tier 1 and 2 partnerships. This multi-layered approach aims to achieve two key objectives: (1) Neutralize India's US-backed advantage: Engaging China and Russia can influence Tier 2 states, particularly in Central Asia, to rebalance their regional positioning towards Pakistan. (2) Develop a collective defense system: Converging geo-economic interests via initiatives like the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can foster a regional security ring around Pakistan. By strategically engaging across these tiers, Pakistan can navigate the complex power dynamics in South Asia, bolster its security, and ultimately safeguard its national interests in the face of a strengthened India.

Internal and External Threats to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been considered a significant development project for Pakistan. Since its inception, the project has attracted billions of dollars into Pakistan’s development sector. However, CPEC is facing several challenges driven by both internal and external factors. Internally, CPEC has been disrupted by the Baloch insurgency, which is driven by grievances among the Baloch, recent terrorist activities inspired by the Taliban's return to Afghanistan, and the looming threat of political instability within Pakistan. Externally, the evolving political situation in Afghanistan, India's concerns about territorial disputes, and the competition between the US and China also have implications for the CPEC project. CPEC is an essential part of China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and is vital for regional integration. However, the internal and external threats have slowed down the progress of the CPEC project. This paper attempts to analyse the prevailing threats to CPEC and present recommendations to overcome them.