The Heritiera littoralis, an important rare semi-mangrove species found in coastal protective forests, plays a crucial role in carbon storage and cycling within mangrove wetland ecosystems. Despite its importance, previous studies have overlooked remote monitoring of its carbon storage. Taking the world’s oldest and largest natural community of H. littoralis in Shenzhen, China, as the study area, this research pioneers the use of UAV hyperspectral imaging to identify the H. littoralis community and estimate its above-ground, below-ground, and total carbon storage. The impacts of five geo-environmental factors (elevation, slope, aspect, vegetation communities, and inland distance from the coastline) on the spatial variability of carbon storage using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and multiscale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) methods were also investigated. The results demonstrate that the first derivative bands within the red edge and near-infrared regions, the anthocyanin reflectance index 2 (ARI2) and newly-developed three-band VIs, were sensitive features for community identification and carbon storage estimation within the H. littoralis community. Among the four machine learning models (eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression (LR)), the best identification accuracy for the H. littoralis community was achieved by XGBoost. Among the four machine learning models (XGBoost, RF, SVM and kernel ridge regression (KRR)), RF model achieved the best performance in estimating above-ground (R2 = 0.749, RMSE=1.723 kg/m2, EV (explained variance) = 0.704), below-ground (R2 = 0.636, RMSE=0.6 kg/m2, EV=0.606) and total carbon storage (R2 = 0.613, RMSE=2.592 kg/m2, EV=0.597). SHAP and MGWR analysis showed that elevation and inland distance from the coastline were key factors influencing the spatial variability of carbon storage. In conclusion, this study showcases significant advantages in community identification and carbon storage monitoring of rare mangrove communities, providing valuable insights for biodiversity conservation efforts and management within the H. littoralis ecosystem.
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