Belief Rule-based Inference Methodology Research Articles

A new belief rule base inference methodology with interval information based on the interval evidential reasoning algorithm

A new belief rule base inference methodology with interval information based on the interval evidential reasoning algorithm

Convolutional rule inference network based on belief rule-based system using an evidential reasoning approach

With the development of artificial intelligence, we pay widespread attention to the high reliability and interpretability of resulting architectures and algorithms. As one of the main methods of machine learning, the “black-box” mechanism of neural networks lacks interpretability. In order to alleviate the low interpretability, based on belief rule-based inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER), we propose a convolutional rule inference network (CRIN), which is interpretable by involving rules in belief rule base (BRB) under various types of uncertain knowledge representation. Considering the influence of global data distribution on attribute weights, the determination of each attribute may be affected by all other attributes, based on the sigmoid activation function, we determine optimized attribute weights to make sure that each attribute weight is formed by all attribute values. The derivation functions with optimized attribute weights based on evidential reasoning theory also showed to ensure the feasibility of the following learning algorithm. For expressing the influence of local rules input on final output in the network, the network framework and learning algorithm of CRIN based on convolution strategy are proposed. The inference process in RIMER is used as the feedforward mechanism to ensure the interpretability of the network. Meanwhile, the gradient descent method is used as back propagation algorithm to adjust the parameters of rule base to establish a more reasonable BRB. The experimental results and comparative analysis demonstrate that the proposed CRIN has advantages in terms of interpretability and learning capability. This study suggests new trends for interpretable network and uncertain classification issues in the reasoning approach.

Applying Belief Rule-Based Inference Methodology Using Evidential Reasoning Approach to Clinical Reporting System

In the healthcare field, a critical issue is how to reason and represent uncertainties that present in clinical knowledge domain, signs, and symptoms to make the correct decisions. Although several researchers have developed various models of clinical modeling, many of them are incapable of handling uncertainties correctly. The paper provides the working details of rule-based inference methodology using evidence reasoning (RIMER) methodology applied to model the inference process and clinical guidelines. In RIMER, belief-degree are embedded in all possible consequences of the rule. It can handle uncertainties and provide a causal relationship between the rules. Traditional IF-THEN rules do not provide a causal relationship between antecedent and consequent attributes of the rule only provide that the rule is either 100% true or 100% false. Also, a case study is used to demonstrate that the results generated by the system using RIMER are more reliable in terms of accuracy and performance compared to results generated manually for a diabetes diagnosis.

Optimizing the configuration of an heterogeneous architecture of sensors for activity recognition, using the extended belief rule-based inference methodology

Smart environments are heterogeneous architectures with a broad range of heterogeneous electronic devices that are with high in processing capabilities for computing, considering low power consumption. They have the ability to record information about the behavior of the people by means of their interactions with the objects within an environment. This kind of environments are providing solutions to address some of the problems associated with the growing size and ageing of the population by means of the recognition of activities that can offer monitoring activities of daily living and adapting the environment. In order to deploy low-cost smart environments and reduce the computational complexity for activity recognition, it is a key issue to know the subset of sensors which are relevant for activity recognition. By using feature selection methods to optimize the subset of initial sensors in a smart environment, this paper proposes the adaption of the extended belief rule-based inference methodology (RIMER+) to handle data binary sensors and its use as the suitable classifier for activity recognition that keeps the accuracy of results even in situations where an essential sensor fails. A case study is presented in which a smart environment dataset for activity recognition with 14 sensors is set. Two optimizations with 7 and 10 sensors are obtained with two feature selection methods in which the adaptation of RIMER+ for smart environment provides an encouraged performance against the most popular classifiers in terms of robustness.

Dynamic rule adjustment approach for optimizing belief rule-base expert system

The belief rule-base (BRB) inference methodology, which uses the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach, has been widely popular in recent years. As an expert-system methodology using the RIMER approach, BRB is used for storing various types of uncertain knowledge in the form of belief structure. Several structure-learning approaches have been proposed in recent years. However, these approaches are deficient in various aspects, do not have repeatability, hold incomplete data, and are constrained by the associated scale-utility value. Moreover, considering the influence of the number of rules for a BRB system, two scenarios are designed to reveal the relationship between structure feature and fewer/excessive rules. Excessive rules may lead to a BRB that is equipped with an over-complete structure, whereas significantly fewer rules may result in a BRB with an incomplete structure. To solve these problems, we initially proposed to develop an adjusted structure that is leading to the establishment of a complete structure instead of incomplete and over-complete structures. By scenario analysis and experimental verification through parameter learning of BRBs, we summarize several features of two scenarios, which can be used to reveal certain number of key BRB properties. Finally, density and error analyses are introduced to dynamically prune or add rules to construct the complete structure, particularly that of the BRB comprising multiple-antecedent attributes. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach by testing its use in a practical case study on oil pipeline-leak detection and demonstrate how the approach can be implemented.

A new belief rule base knowledge representation scheme and inference methodology using the evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination

In this paper, we extend the original belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach by i) introducing generalised belief rules as knowledge representation scheme, and ii) using the evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination in the rule-base inference methodology instead of the evidential reasoning approach. The result is a new rule-base inference methodology which is able to handle a combination of various types of uncertainty.Generalised belief rules are an extension of traditional rules where each consequent of a generalised belief rule is a belief distribution defined on the power set of propositions, or possible outcomes, that are assumed to be collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive. This novel extension allows any combination of certain, uncertain, interval, partial or incomplete judgements to be represented as rule-based knowledge. It is shown that traditional IF-THEN rules, probabilistic IF-THEN rules, and interval rules are all special cases of the new generalised belief rules.The rule-base inference methodology has been updated to enable inference within generalised belief rule bases. The evidential reasoning rule for evidence combination is used for the aggregation of belief distributions of rule consequents.

Belief rule-based inference for predicting trauma outcome

A belief rule-based inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) is employed in this study to construct a decision support tool that helps physicians predict in-hospital death and intensive care unit admission among trauma patients in emergency departments (EDs). This study contributes to the research community by developing and validating a RIMER-based decision tool for predicting trauma outcome. To compare the prediction performance of the RIMER model with those of models derived using commonly adopted methods, such as logistic regression analysis, support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN), several logistic regression models, SVM models, and ANN models are constructed using the same dataset. Five-fold cross-validation is employed to train and validate the prediction models constructed using four different methods. Results indicate that the RIMER model has the best prediction performance among the four models, and its performance can be improved after knowledge base training with historical data. The RIMER tool exhibits strong potential to help ED physicians to better triage trauma, optimally utilize hospital resources, and achieve better patient outcomes.

Sensor-based activity recognition using extended belief rule-based inference methodology.

The recently developed extended belief rule-based inference methodology (RIMER+) recognizes the need of modeling different types of information and uncertainty that usually coexist in real environments. A home setting with sensors located in different rooms and on different appliances can be considered as a particularly relevant example of such an environment, which brings a range of challenges for sensor-based activity recognition. Although RIMER+ has been designed as a generic decision model that could be applied in a wide range of situations, this paper discusses how this methodology can be adapted to recognize human activities using binary sensors within smart environments. The evaluation of RIMER+ against other state-of-the-art classifiers in terms of accuracy, efficiency and applicability was found to be significantly relevant, specially in situations of input data incompleteness, and it demonstrates the potential of this methodology and underpins the basis to develop further research on the topic.

A novel belief rule base representation, generation and its inference methodology

Advancement and application of rule-based systems have always been a key research area in computer-aided support for human decision making due to the fact that rule base is one of the most common frameworks for expressing various types of human knowledge in an intelligent system. In this paper, a novel rule-based representation scheme with a belief structure is proposed firstly along with its inference methodology. Such a rule base is designed with belief degrees embedded in the consequent terms as well as in the all antecedent terms of each rule, which is shown to be capable of capturing vagueness, incompleteness, uncertainty, and nonlinear causal relationships in an integrated way. The overall representation and inference framework offers a further improvement and great extension of the recently developed belief Rule base Inference Methodology (refer to as RIMER), although they still share a common scheme at the final step of inference, i.e., the evidential reasoning (ER) approach is applied to the rule combination. It is worth noting that this new extended belief rule base representation is a great extension of traditional rule base as well as fuzzy rule base by encompassing the uncertainty description in the rule antecedent and consequent. Subsequently, a simple but efficient and powerful method for automatically generating such extended belief rule base from numerical data is proposed involving neither time-consuming iterative learning procedure nor complicated rule generation mechanisms but keeping the relatively good performance, which thanks to the new features of the extended rule base with belief structures. Then some case studies in oil pipeline leak detection and software defect detection are provided to illustrate the proposed new rule base representation, generation, and inference procedure as well as demonstrate its high performance and efficiency by comparing with some existing approaches.

Application of Three-Ratio Fault Diagnosis Rule Based on Belief Rule Base

A transformer fault diagnosis method based on RIMER( belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach) expert system is proposed to deal with fault coding loss and low accuracy in the three-ratio rule. The fault diagnosis method acquires the parameter of the belief rule bases from both three-ratio rule and training of the fault sample data, and then get the diagnosis result Based on the belief rule bases and evidence reasoning algorithm. The calculation speed of the method is fast. The simulation experiment indicates that the model improves the fault diagnosis accuracy rate, furthermore the distributed confidence result indicts the mixed fault more effective.

Iterative learning belief rule-base inference methodology using evidential reasoning for delayed coking unit

The belief rule-base inference methodology using evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach has been proved to be an effective extension of traditional rule-based expert systems and a powerful tool for representing more complicated causal relationships using different types of information with uncertainties. With a predetermined structure of the initial belief rule-base (BRB), the RIMER approach requires the assignment of some system parameters including rule weights, attribute weights, and belief degrees using experts’ knowledge. Although some updating algorithms were proposed to solve this problem, it is still difficult to find an optimal compact BRB. In this paper, a novel updating algorithm is proposed based on iterative learning strategy for delayed coking unit (DCU), which contains both continuous and discrete characteristics. Daily DCU operations under different conditions are modeled by a BRB, which is then updated using iterative learning methodology, based on a novel statistical utility for every belief rule. Compared with the other learning algorithms, our methodology can lead to a more optimal compact final BRB. With the help of this expert system, a feedforward compensation strategy is introduced to eliminate the disturbance caused by the drum-switching operations. The advantages of this approach are demonstrated on the UniSim™ Operations Suite platform through the developed DCU operation expert system modeled and optimized from a real oil refinery.

A belief rule-based decision support system for clinical risk assessment of cardiac chest pain

This paper describes a prototype clinical decision support system (CDSS) for risk stratification of patients with cardiac chest pain. A newly developed belief rule-based inference methodology-RIMER was employed for developing the prototype. Based on the belief rule-based inference methodology, the prototype CDSS can deal with uncertainties in both clinical domain knowledge and clinical data. Moreover, the prototype can automatically update its knowledge base via a belief rule base (BRB) learning module which can adjust BRB through accumulated historical clinical cases. The domain specific knowledge used to construct the knowledge base of the prototype was learned from real patient data. We simulated a set of 1000 patients in cardiac chest pain to validate the prototype. The belief rule-based prototype CDSS has been found to perform extremely well. Firstly, the system can provide more reliable and informative diagnosis recommendations than manual diagnosis using traditional rules when there are clinical uncertainties. Secondly, the diagnostic performance of the system can be significantly improved after training the BRB through accumulated clinical cases.

A methodology to generate a belief rule base for customer perception risk analysis in new product development

New product development (NPD) is crucial for a company’s success in a competitive market. Meanwhile, NPD is a process associated with great complexity and high risk. To ensure its smooth operation, risks involved in an NPD process need to be analyzed in a proper way. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to generate a belief rule base (BRB), which is the basis of the Belief Rule-Base Inference Methodology using the Evidential Reasoning (RIMER). Due to its capability in dealing with complex reasoning problems under uncertainty, RIMER is then applied to assess customer perception risk (CPR) in an NPD process. To test and validate the method proposed in this paper, a case study of an “Interactive Doll” is conducted at the end of the paper.

The polychronic economy

The polychronic economy

A sequential learning algorithm for online constructing belief-rule-based systems

A belief rule base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach has been developed recently. A belief rule base (BRB), which can be treated as a more generalized expert system, extends traditional IF-THEN rules, but requires the assignment of some system parameters including rule weights, attribute weights, and belief degrees. These parameters need to be determined with care for reliable system simulation and prediction. Some off-line optimization models have been proposed, but it is expensive to train and re-train these models in particular for large-scale systems. Moreover, the recursive algorithms are also proposed to fine tune a BRB online, which require less calculation time and satisfy the real-time requirement. However, the earlier mentioned learning algorithms are all based on a predetermined structure of the BRB. For a complex system, prior knowledge may not be perfect, which leads to the construction of an incomplete or even inappropriate initial BRB structure. Also, too many rules in an initial BRB may lead to over fitting, whilst too few rules may result in under fitting. Consequently, such a BRB system may not be capable of achieving overall optimal performance. In this paper, we consider one realistic and important case where both a preliminary BRB structure and system parameters assigned to given rules can be adjusted online. Based on the definition of a new statistical utility for a belief rule as investigated in this paper, a sequential learning algorithm for online constructing more compact BRB systems is proposed. Compared with the other learning algorithms, a belief rule can be automatically added into the BRB or pruned from the BRB, and our algorithm can also satisfy the real-time requirement. In addition, our algorithm inherits the feature of RIMER, i.e., only partial input and output information is required, which could be either incomplete or vague, either numerical or judgmental, or mixed. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, a practical case study about oil pipeline leak detection is studied and examined to demonstrate how the algorithm can be implemented.

Improving nuclear safeguards evaluation through enhanced belief rule-based inference methodology

The present work aims to propose a framework for modelling, analysing and synthesising information on nuclear safeguards with various uncertainties. After a hierarchical analysis of states' nuclear activities on the basis of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Physical Model, the multilayer structure of the evaluation model for states' nuclear activities is outlined. Special emphasis is given to the synthesis and evaluation of the Physical Model indicator information by using a newly developed belief rule-based inference methodology (RIMER), which handles hybrid uncertain information in nuclear safeguards' evaluation process. RIMER is developed on the basis of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, decision theory and fuzzy rule-based systems. In this methodology, various types of information from different sources can be transformed and used in the inference process. The new methodology can provide a flexible and effective procedure to deal with hybrid, uncertain assessment information to arrive at rational conclusions. The evaluation model framework illustrates and clarifies the inference and synthesis formalism from the given case study in this paper.

Online updating belief rule based system for pipeline leak detection under expert intervention

A belief rule base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) has been developed recently, where a new belief rule base (BRB) is proposed to extend traditional IF-THEN rules and can capture more complicated causal relationships using different types of information with uncertainties, but these models are trained off-line and it is very expensive to train and re-train them. As such, recursive algorithms have been developed to update the BRB systems online and their calculation speed is very high, which is very important, particularly for the systems that have a high level of real-time requirement. The optimization models and recursive algorithms have been used for pipeline leak detection. However, because the proposed algorithms are both locally optimal and there may exist some noise in the real engineering systems, the trained or updated BRB may violate some certain running patterns that the pipeline leak should follow. These patterns can be determined by human experts according to some basic physical principles and the historical information. Therefore, this paper describes under expert intervention, how the recursive algorithm update the BRB system so that the updated BRB cannot only be used for pipeline leak detection but also satisfy the given patterns. Pipeline operations under different conditions are modeled by a BRB using expert knowledge, which is then updated and fine tuned using the proposed recursive algorithm and pipeline operating data, and validated by testing data. All training and testing data are collected from a real pipeline. The study demonstrates that under expert intervention, the BRB expert system is flexible, can be automatically tuned to represent complicated expert systems, and may be applied widely in engineering. It is also demonstrated that compared with other methods such as fuzzy neural networks (FNNs), the RIMER has a special characteristic of allowing direct intervention of human experts in deciding the internal structure and the parameters of a BRB expert system.

Optimization Models for Training Belief-Rule-Based Systems

A belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach (RIMER) has been developed recently, where a new belief rule representation scheme is proposed to extend traditional IF-THEN rules. The belief rule expression matrix in RIMER provides a compact framework for representing expert knowledge. However, it is difficult to accurately determine the parameters of a belief rule base (BRB) entirely subjectively, particularly, for a large-scale BRB with hundreds or even thousands of rules. In addition, a change in rule weight or attribute weight may lead to changes in the performance of a BRB. As such, there is a need to develop a supporting mechanism that can be used to train, in a locally optimal way, a BRB that is initially built using expert knowledge. In this paper, several new optimization models for locally training a BRB are developed. The new models are either single- or multiple-objective nonlinear optimization problems. The main feature of these new models is that only partial input and output information is required, which can be either incomplete or vague, either numerical or judgmental, or mixed. The models can be used to fine tune a BRB whose internal structure is initially decided by experts' domain-specific knowledge or common sense judgments. As such, a wide range of knowledge representation schemes can be handled, thereby facilitating the construction of various types of BRB systems. Conclusions drawn from such a trained BRB with partially built-in expert knowledge can simulate real situations in a meaningful, consistent, and locally optimal way. A numerical study for a hierarchical rule base is examined to demonstrate how the new models can be implemented as well as their potential applications.

Belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning Approach-RIMER

In this paper, a generic rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning (RIMER) approach is proposed. Existing knowledge-base structures are first examined, and knowledge representation schemes under uncertainty are then briefly analyzed. Based on this analysis, a new knowledge representation scheme in a rule base is proposed using a belief structure. In this scheme, a rule base is designed with belief degrees embedded in all possible consequents of a rule. Such a rule base is capable of capturing vagueness, incompleteness, and nonlinear causal relationships, while traditional if-then rules can be represented as a special case. Other knowledge representation parameters such as the weights of both attributes and rules are also investigated in the scheme. In an established rule base, an input to an antecedent attribute is transformed into a belief distribution. Subsequently, inference in such a rule base is implemented using the evidential reasoning (ER) approach. The scheme is further extended to inference in hierarchical rule bases. A numerical study is provided to illustrate the potential applications of the proposed methodology.