Consensus Belief Research Articles

How Media Reports on COVID-19 Conspiracy Theories Impact Consensus Beliefs and Protective Action: A Randomized Controlled Online Trial.

This study examines the influence of news coverage on coronavirus disease (COVID)-related conspiracy theories on consensus perceptions regarding the seriousness of COVID-19 and its impact on attitudes and behaviors. In an online experiment, 395 participants either watched a report containing conspiracy theories, scientific facts, or information about a political summit, and they subsequently completed a questionnaire. Viewing reports on conspiracy theories lead to higher assessments of consensus compared with other reports. Perceived consensus correlated positively with attitudes toward COVID, which further correlated positively with behavior. The study shows that news reports can bias assessments of consensus, which has implications for public communication.

Communicating the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: Diverse Audiences and Effects Over Time

Prior research has demonstrated that communicating the scientific consensus that human-caused climate change is happening is an effective way to increase public understanding and engagement with the issue. However, less is known about (1) how persuasive this message is to oppositional audiences, (2) how long message effects last over time, and (3) what factors predict whether such effects last. We address these questions in a two-wave longitudinal study and find that consensus messaging leads to updated consensus beliefs across Global Warming’s Six Americas. Although consensus treatment effects decay over time, 40% of the original treatment effect remains 26 days later. Additionally, the treatment effect is most durable among people Doubtful or Dismissive of climate change. Our findings address an ongoing debate in the literature and support a Bayesian learning perspective, with little evidence of motivated reasoning.

Japanese Clinical Psychologists' Consensus Beliefs about Mental Health: A Mixed‐Methods Approach

AbstractThis study applied a two‐phase, mixed‐methods research design, grounded in cultural consensus theory (CCT), to examine shared beliefs about mental health held by Japanese clinical psychologists (CPs). In CCT, qualitative methods are first used to identify culturally salient elements of a domain; factor analysis is then used to quantify the degree of sharedness, an approach known as cultural consensus analysis (CCA). First, a free‐listing technique with 16 Japanese CPs was conducted to elicit salient terms for the two domains: (a) how members of the general public acquire beliefs about mental health; and (b) how Japanese mental healthcare ought to be reformed. In the second phase, CCA was conducted through a survey completed by 100 CPs. The free‐listing analysis generated 21 and 23 culturally salient terms for the two domains, respectively. Then, CCA demonstrated that the two domains could each be characterized as a single cultural model with a high degree of consensus. CCT provides a systematic mixed‐methods approach that is particularly well‐suited to investigating culturally grounded shared beliefs held by people in a specific cultural context.

Conservative bias, selective political exposure and truly false consensus beliefs in political communication about the 'refugee crisis' in Germany.

The rise of digital media has increased the opportunities for individuals to self-select political content online. This development has stimulated empirical research on how people select political information, especially when political beliefs are at stake. In the present paper, we tested a series of theory-derived assumptions about antecedents and consequences of selective exposure to confirmative political information and opinions in the digital arena. We conducted an online survey with German Internet users (N = 897, April 2016) and assessed political attitudes, media use and general beliefs in the context of the so-called “migration crisis”. 28% of the participants in our sample reported exposure to a confirmative information environment. They are more likely to hear or read about political opinions on migration and political asylum that are similar to their own compared to cross-cutting content. We found no evidence for the assumption that the technological affordances of the Internet foster this form of selective political exposure. Instead, our analyses indicate that conservatism is a positive predictor of selecting confirmative information environments when it comes to migration and political asylum. We also gathered evidence that this relation is mediated by perceived threat and that selective political exposure is linked to truly false consensus beliefs. Our findings inform supply- and demand-side explanations of selective political exposure online. We discuss the relevance for psychological theories about the motivational underpinnings of selective exposure.

Anger consensus messaging can enhance expectations for collective action and support for climate mitigation

Media coverage of climate protests within the United States and internationally has shown growing public frustration about governmental responses to climate change. But what are the effects of conveying that people are angry? And how do they contrast with more traditional norm messages about climate policy support? Here, we investigate whether social norm messaging about collective anger can impact perceptions of consensus and public support for climate mitigation. In a pilot study and two survey experiments (total N = 1529), we find that relative to control messages, normative appeals that convey growing public anger about U.S. inaction on climate change (i.e., dynamic anger consensus messaging) can enhance Americans' consensus estimates of other Americans' climate-related beliefs and support for mitigation policy, and expectations for future climate-mitigating collective action. Moreover, exposure to a dynamic anger consensus message led to similar estimates of Americans’ policy support and belief in climate change as messages that explicitly conveyed public support for climate mitigation (Study 1) or consensus belief in anthropogenic climate change (Study 2). When tailored for a cross-partisan audience, anger consensus messaging was also effective in bolstering personal support for climate mitigation (Study 2). Notably, similar effects were observed across partisan groups. These findings suggest that, by signaling shared motivational states, emotion consensus appeals can enhance expectations for social change, with the potential to mobilize bipartisan support for climate mitigation.

Do forecasters really care about consensus?

The way expectations are formed is a crucial economic issue, far from being resolved. Strategic response of forecasters to the consensus belief can explain key features of expectations formation documented in survey data. However, empirical evidence for such a response could be criticized on the basis of the underlying informational assumptions. This study exploits a special design, in an Israeli survey of firm-level inflation forecasts, which controls the information about consensus reported to the participants. We find a significant tendency of anti-herding, which is also related to the inflation level. As the inflation rate decreases, the tendency to anti-herd diminishes. This may suggest that a greater attention to inflation is associated with over-response to consensus.

Investigating the Sociocultural Factors That Affect Learning a Second Language (on the Example of English)

The present study investigates the sociocultural factors that affect second language learning. The investigation is built under five factors that are presumed to affect second language learning. The first factor is related to the effects of personality traits that are linked to second language learning, such as: self-efficiency, willingness, extraversion, and introversion, etc. The second factor pertains to motivation and second language learning. The third one is stereotyping and its effects on second language learning. The fourth is about social distance as a sociocultural factor of second language learning. And the fifth factor is about attitude. The study looks for how much effects do the factors mentioned so far have got in second language learning. A questionnaire is constructed to extract perceptions about the hypothesized factors from 62 participants. Responses are analyzed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) to get statistical descriptions about the factors that mostly affect second language learning. The analytic statistics gives the following mean values for each factor: attitude = 20.58, stereotype = 20.00, motivation = 19.84, social distance = 19.74, and personality 18.85. The study concludes with the consensus belief that attitude is a crucial factor of second language learning.

Spreading the Health: Americans' Estimated and Ideal Distributions of Death and Health(care)

The 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act intensified debates over the role of government in the distribution of healthcare. A nationally-representative sample of Americans reported their estimated and ideal distributions of healthcare (unmet need for prescription medications) and death (gains in life expectancy). Respondents across the demographic and political spectrum wanted mortality and healthcare to be distributed more evenly among the rich and poor than they estimated them to be. For example, respondents estimated that Americans in the poorest quintile lived 1.5 months longer over the previous 20 years while those in the richest quintile lived 4.7 months longer, but reported ideal figures of 2.5 and 3.6 months – both were far more equal than the actual figures: -1.8 and 7.2 months. Despite heated debates about healthcare, Americans share a consensus belief that current disparities in death and healthcare are far from their ideals.

The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies

The wisdom of the crowd applied to financial markets asserts that prices represent a consensus belief that is more accurate than individual beliefs. However, a market selection argument implies that prices eventually reflect only the beliefs of the most accurate agent. In this paper, we show how to reconcile these alternative points of view. In markets in which agents naively learn from equilibrium prices, a dynamic wisdom of the crowd holds. Market participation increases agents' accuracy, and equilibrium prices are more accurate than the most accurate agent.

Heterogeneous Perceptions of Social-Ecological Change Among Small-Scale Fishermen in the Central Gulf of California: Implications for Adaptive Response

As changes in climate, governance, and organization reshape the dynamics of small-scale fisheries around the globe, the persistence of many local livelihoods appears contingent upon the ability of resource users to respond and adapt. Though significant scholarship has considered the limiting roles of resources and infrastructure, recent research has highlighted the importance of local learning and knowledge. Rather than being driven by forces exogenous to local communities, it is increasingly recognized that adaptation may be limited by perceptions and processes within them. Here we explore knowledge production and adaptive response within a small-scale fishery in the central Gulf of California following system perturbation. Using mixed methods from the natural and social sciences, we 1) identify local drivers of socio-ecological change, 2) document knowledge concerning their causes and consequences across a diverse group of small-scale fishermen and 3) identify patterns of intracultural agreement and disagreement associated with divergent adaptive response. Results indicate that perceptions of socio-ecological change were heterogeneous and that gear ownership and target species diversification were critical factors in determining the cultural models through which fishermen understood and responded to changes in the resource system. Unlike other user groups, owner-operator fishermen pursuing generalist livelihood strategies held consensus beliefs regarding changes to system structure and function and demonstrated increased ability to modify fishing tactics with the best practices for sustainable use. Our findings highlight how local knowledge can be used to assess the proximate impacts of external drivers of change and provide insight into the cultural models influencing in situ decision-making and adaptive response within modern fishery systems.

The informational dimensions of the Amihud (2002) illiquidity measure: Evidence from the M&A market

In this study we shed a new light on Amihud's illiquidity measure, used here as a relevant «measure of consensus belief among investors about new information» (Amihud, 2002). This paper demonstrates the relevance of this new approach/ dimension in the context of M&A transactions. Using a large sample of M&A in the U.S., Canada and Europe over the 2000–13 period, we report that Amihud's (2002) measure is a significant determinant of cumulative abnormal returns observed after M&A. This metric is also consistent with financial analyst forecast activity and stands as a relevant proxy measure of price informativeness.

The Informational Dimensions of the Amihud (2002) Illiquidity Measure

In this study we shed a new light on Amihud’s illiquidity measure, used here as a relevant measure of consensus belief among investors about new information (Amihud, 2002). This paper demonstrates the relevance of this new approach/dimension in the context of M&A transactions. Using a large sample of M&A in the U.S., Canada and Europe over the 2000-2013 period, we report that Amihud’s (2002) measure is a significant determinant of cumulative abnormal returns observed after M&A. This metric is also consistent with financial analyst forecast activity and stands as a relevant proxy measure of price informativeness.

Explaining Support for Stealth Democracy

ABSTRACTThe pioneering work of Hibbing and Theiss-Morse [2002. Stealth Democracy: Americans’ Beliefs about How Government Should Work. New York: Cambridge University Press] on citizens’ process preferences, and particularly support for “stealth democracy” as an alternative to both direct and representative democracy, has recently garnered increased attention from scholars. This paper examines the influence of perceptions of public consensus about controversial issues and of fellow citizens’ competence in making policy determinations on support for stealth democracy. Those who believe there is consensus in the public, and who believe the typical citizen is not competent to make policy decisions, should be more likely to support stealth democracy than direct or representative democracy. To test this, I use data from a statewide survey in Pennsylvania. The results suggest that attitudes on public consensus, but not on citizen competence, explain support for stealth democracy. However, a belief in public consensus also explains support for direct democracy. The factor that distinguishes support for stealth and direct democracy is ideology.

Experiments on Belief Formation in Networks

Abstract We study belief formation in social networks using a laboratory experiment. Participants in our experiment observe an imperfect private signal on the state of the world and then simultaneously and repeatedly guess the state, observing the guesses of their network neighbors in each period. Across treatments we vary the network structure and the amount of information participants have about the network. Our first result shows that information about the network structure matters and in particular affects the share of correct guesses in the network. This is inconsistent with the widely used naive (deGroot) model. The naive model is, however, consistent with a larger share of individual decisions than the competing Bayesian model, whereas both models correctly predict only about 25%–30% of consensus beliefs. We then estimate a larger class of models and find that participants do indeed take network structure into account when updating beliefs. In particular they discount information from neighbors if it is correlated, but in a more rudimentary way than a Bayesian learner would.

Konflikt pomiędzy nauką a wiarą w polityczno-ideologiczny konsensus w sprawie globalnego ocieplenia

The conflict between science and the belief in political and ideological consensus on global warming This article provides an analysis of conflict between scientific attitude and ideological belief. The consen­sus on global warming has excluding from Popper’s falsifiability. The same issue concerns verification and confirmation on global warming hypothesis. Only three out of a hundred scientists calls into question the theory of climate catastrophe. We don’t know if this theory is false, because climatologists and politicians did not accept independent research on global warming. Reduce CO2 emission is dogma of Left-wing politics. The natural sciences are included in the political discourse area. The global warming is a part of ideology and draws people into the area of policy actions

A Pari-Mutuel-Like Mechanism for Information Aggregation: A Field Test inside Intel

A new information aggregation mechanism (IAM), developed via laboratory experimental methods, is implemented inside Intel Corporation in a long-running field test. The IAM, incorporating features of pari-mutuel betting, is uniquely designed to collect and quantize as probability distributions dispersed, subjectively held information. IAM participants’ incentives support timely information revelation and the emergence of consensus beliefs over future outcomes. Empirical tests demonstrate the robustness of experimental results and the IAM’s practical usefulness in addressing real-world problems. The IAM’s predictive distributions forecasting sales are very accurate, especially for short horizons and direct sales channels, often proving more accurate than Intel’s internal forecast.

High school experiences and climate change beliefs of first year college students in the United States

Climate change has not been well understood by high school students in the US and the topic is often connected to misconceptions, which is especially damaging since accurate understandings of the concepts are strongly predictive of intent to do something about it. We use data from a national (US) survey of first year college students to identify high school experiences which correlate with the belief that climate change is caused by human activities. In-class coverage of climate change is less predictive of belief than time spent on science homework or science-themed extracurricular activities. These correlations suggest that simply covering climate change in class may not necessarily lead to greater belief in the scientific consensus. While deeper understanding is a worthy goal, the results indicate that, when it comes to high school science education, social factors such as the process and culture of education are also important for belief in climate change. These finding aligns with previous research about college students, which suggest student activities are more strongly correlated with student viewpoints than professor beliefs. Given the potential for curricula to become politicized these finding suggests an alternative route to achieve climate change education goals.

The Wisdom of the Crowd in Dynamic Economies

The Wisdom of the Crowd applied to financial markets asserts that prices represent a consensus belief that is more accurate than individual beliefs. However, a market selection argument implies that prices eventually reflect only the beliefs of the most accurate agent. In this paper, we show how to reconcile these alternative points of view. In markets in which agents naively learn from equilibrium prices, a dynamic Wisdom of the Crowd holds. Market participation increases agents’ accuracy, and equilibrium prices are more accurate than the most accurate agent.

Incorporating a Counterproductive Work Behavior Perspective into the Salesperson Deviance Literature: Intentionally Harmful Acts and Motivations for Sales Deviance

Counterproductive Work Behaviors (CWBs) are based on the harm, or intended harm, they cause to organizations and or stakeholders (Spector and Fox 2005), while sales deviance is based on the violation of organizational norms (Robinson and Bennet 1995). Utilizing the definitional difference, this article explores a gap in the sales deviance literature that allows for potentially unidentified intentionally harmful behaviors that do not violate organizational norms, to exist. In addition, we propose strategic motivations for such behavior. Results suggest that motivations include long-term attitudes toward CWBs, moral obligation, consensus beliefs, productive equity, self-image congruence, and impression management.

EMS Providers' Beliefs Regarding Spinal Precautions for Pediatric Trauma Transport

Objective: Describe prehospital Emergency Medical Services (EMS) providers' beliefs regarding spinal precautions for pediatric trauma transport. Methods: We randomly surveyed nationally certified EMS providers. We assessed providers' beliefs about specific precautions, and preferred precautions given a child's age (0–4 or 5–18 years) and presence of specific cervical spine injury (CSI) risk factors. Results: We received 5,400 responses (17%). Most were Paramedics (36%) or EMTs (22%) and worked at fire-based services (42%). A total of 47% endorsed responding to pediatric calls more than once per month. Consensus beliefs (>66% agreement) were that rigid cervical collars (68%) and long backboards with soft conforming surfaces (79%) maintain an injured pediatric spine in optimal position. Only 39% believed in the utility of the rigid long backboard to protect the pediatric spine. For most risk factors in both age categories, a rigid cervical collar with a long backboard with a soft conforming surface was the most common response (28–40% depending on age group and risk factor); however, there were no consensus beliefs. Provider-level experience, working as a patient care provider, less education, and parent status were associated with endorsing the rigid cervical collar. Factors associated with endorsing the rigid long backboard included provider level, working as a patient care provider, low pediatric call volume, and less education. Conclusions: EMS providers believe that rigid cervical collars and long backboards with soft conforming surfaces provide optimal spinal precautions. There were no consensus beliefs, however, for use of particular precautions based on age and risk factors.