Price Behavior Research Articles

To Study the Dynamics of Demand and Consumption Patterns of Wellness Tea in Different Provinces of China

In the present social context where health awareness is on the rise Chinese consumers appetite for healthy beverages is experiencing a rapid upward trend. Wellness tea beverages, which integrate traditional wellness concepts with modern beverage culture, are increasingly popular among consumers due to their potential health advantages.. This report offers an in-depth analysis of the dynamic changes in demand and consumption patterns of wellness tea across different provinces in China. By comprehensively dissecting the sales volume, price, and consumption behaviors of branded wellness tea in various cities and stores on the Taobao platform, it aims to disclose market trends and construct a regression forecast model for sales volume. The results indicate that the price factor (both pre-coupon and post-coupon prices) is the most decisive element influencing sales volume. Geographical regional disparities also exert a certain impact on sales volume, while macroeconomic indicators such as per capita GDP have a relatively minor impact. These discoveries not only provide decision support for market participants in the wellness tea industry, but also provide valuable reference information for policymakers, thereby facilitating the healthy progression of the industry and further tapping into the market potential.

Attention to Israel’s war on Gaza and stock price behavior: evidence from the Tel Aviv market

PurposePublic interest in global events has become a robust driver of investor behavior and market dynamics. This paper assesses the potential influence of attention to the 2023 Israel–Palestine war on the Tel Aviv stock market performance. Our investigation includes both the aggregate market and major sectors.Design/methodology/approachLeveraging the Google Trends service, we track search interest for a rich list of 20 terms closely linked to the ongoing conflict. Subsequently, we employ principal component analysis to construct a proxy indicator for war-related attention. To examine the potential influence of this attention on stock price returns and volatility, we adopt an EGARCH-X(p, q) framework, incorporating proxy factors to mitigate potential model under-specification issues.FindingsThe results suggest that increased attention to Israel’s invasion of Gaza is associated with negative returns and heightened volatility across most sectors. Additionally, the finance and technology sectors appear to be the most vulnerable, whereas the industrials and real estate sectors show comparatively lower levels of impact.Practical implicationsGiven the observed negative effects of public attention to geopolitical conflicts on stock price dynamics, investors should consider incorporating geopolitical risk assessments into their investment strategies. Understanding how the Israel–Palestine conflict affects market behavior can help investors and fund managers make more informed decisions, including diversifying their asset portfolios to reduce risk or adjusting their positions in sectors most susceptible to such events.Originality/valueTo our best knowledge, this paper presents the first attempt to leverage the ongoing Israel–Palestine war as a compelling example to assess how public awareness of, and reactions to, interstate conflicts impinge on financial market returns and volatility.

Predicting bitcoin cryptocurrency price behavior based on ARIMA and NNAR modelling

The development of models to predict the behavior of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, using a public database (Yahoo! Finance) to predict price trends. The models used were ARIMA and NNAR with the validation of the models being carried out based on the daily closing values of the asset. Both models did not differ significantly, however the adjusted model NNAR (2.2) had a slightly better fit to the original data series, presenting an MPE (Mean Percentage Error) of -0.102.

Price Impact for Different Market Models in Cryptocurrency Trading

Price impact in cryptocurrency trading plays a crucial role in understanding market dynamics and liquidity. The study presents a detailed mathematical analysis of price impact across three different market models: constant sum, constant product, and order book. Each model provides a unique perspective on how asset prices are influenced by trade execution, market depth, and available liquidity. By examining these models, the analysis highlights the relationship between trade volume and price changes, offering important insights into how large transactions affect the stability and behavior of prices in various liquidity environments. The results are relevant for traders and investors aiming to optimize their strategies in volatile markets, as well as for regulators seeking to mitigate the systemic risks posed by large-scale trades in the cryptocurrency space.

Price signals across onion markets in Tamil Nadu

This research investigates price volatility and market integration within select small onion markets across Tamil Nadu, India. Using monthly wholesale price data from the Dindigul, Chennai, Coimbatore, and Idukki markets for the period 2014 to 2023, the study employs an array of econometric methods to analyze price dynamics and market interconnections. The ARCHGARCH model analysis revealed high price volatility persistence in selected small onion markets with the Coimbatore market displaying the highest levels of volatility. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test established stationarity within the price series, while cointegration tests indicated a long-term equilibrium relationship across the markets analyzed in Tamil Nadu. Further examination through the Granger causality test revealed that price movements in the Coimbatore market had a causal impact on the Dindigul market. Additionally, the markets in Coimbatore, Dindigul, and Chennai were shown to exert influence over the Idukki market in Kerala. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis demonstrated that in response to disequilibrium across the Coimbatore, Chennai, Dindigul, and Idukki markets, short -run price adjustments occurred at rates of 41%, 45%, 46%, and 48%, respectively, working towards restoring long-run equilibrium. In the Dindigul market, price adjustments with a one-month lag had a notable influence on current prices within Coimbatore, Chennai, and Dindigul. These findings underscore the interconnected nature of small onion markets within the region and shed light on price behavior patterns. Insights derived from this study could inform policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing market efficiency in the small onion markets.

Panorama económico futuro para el precio de la leche de vaca en México

In the present study, the price of milk was estimated deterministically and stochastically for the period 2023-2028, with the objective of analyzing the economic situation of cow's milk production in Mexico, through the univariate series statistical method of time (ARIMA). A base average price was established, as well as its confidence intervals reflected in the lower limit price and upper limit price. The statistical distribution that best explained the behavior of base prices was the geometric distribution, which was used to estimate the stochastic model. The price of milk is expected to have a deterministic average behavior of 9.38 ± 0.76 pesos per liter for the next six years. The above suggests a methodological approach through which the estimation of the price of agricultural products can be explored and improved to obtain a differentiated price based on quality effect.

Wheat Value Chains and Vertical Price Transmission in South Africa: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Diagnostic Lag Bound Approach

This study examined the vertical transmission of wheat price among the main value chain, looking at the pricing behaviour of certain role players in the wheat production/supply and the distribution of bread, which is a major staple food consumed in South Africa. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was used to analyse the yearly time series data for the period of 2000 to 2022. The results of the stationarity test showed that all variables were of order one, I (1). The study used two pairs, namely farmgate price and retail price, and farmgate price and wholesale price, to examine the existence of asymmetry between these prices, with rainfall and temperature as control variables. The results indicate the existence of a positive long-run asymmetry of 35.9% between the farmgate price of wheat and retail price of bread, and 3.49% asymmetry between the farmgate price and wholesale price of wheat. To develop informed policies on food security, this study suggests that the government should enhance regular access to data and sustain its monitoring and communication of food price information across the whole country. For farmers, a policy on price transparency can help them to establish a public platform to share market prices, ensuring that they receive fair prices. This paper also recommends the provision of subsidies for wheat farmers to help the wheat industry, reduce the cost of bread production, and make bread more affordable and accessible for consumers.

Do stock prices deviate from their fundamental values during and after COVID-19? Evidence from Fintech firms

Purpose This study aims at investigating the nexus between stock misvaluation, Fintech and COVID-19 via identifying the firm-level misvaluation of Fintech firms, and additionally examining how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected this misvaluation. This study further examines how the level of stock misvaluation has changed after the COVID-19 pandemic to shed more light on the pricing behavior of Fintech in a post-pandemic world. Design/methodology/approach The sample consists of all Fintech firms listed in the STOXX Global Fintech Index over the period (2014–2023). To empirically identify stock misvaluation, the authors apply the widely used approach of Rhodes-Kroph et al. (2005). Then, a series of fixed-effects regressions is conducted to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mispricing. Findings This study finds compelling evidence that Fintech stocks tend to be particularly mispriced during the COVID-19 pandemic. This evidence suggests that investors became more attracted to Fintech stocks, as being exposed to widespread adoption, usage and investment worldwide during the pandemic. Interestingly, the findings show that Fintech firms remain overvalued, even after the pandemic, which indicates that investors maintain their positive expectations for Fintech firms after the COVID-19 pandemic. Practical implications For investors and fund managers, the observed high valuation in the Fintech sector highlights its noticeable growth in the financial industry. The results also suggest that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pricing behavior is asymmetric across the undervalued and overvalued Fintech stocks. This finding provides important insights for portfolio construction and investment strategies during the hard times of pandemics. Originality/value No previous work has been done on the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the prevailing levels of mispricing in Fintech stocks. Moreover, the findings provide novel insights into the pricing efficiency in the context of Fintech and extend the understanding of the long-term effects on Fintech firms in a post-pandemic world.

Understanding stock price behavior around external financing

Understanding stock price behavior around external financing

A hybrid model for assessing the price behavior of financial markets: a case study of the HSI

A hybrid model for assessing the price behavior of financial markets: a case study of the HSI

Evaluating Temporal Price Behaviour of Rice in Bangladesh

Aims: The agriculture sector in Bangladesh is predominantly centered on rice production and it is the staple food. High prices of rice can affect the consumers adversely. This study aimed to analyze the annual price dynamics of rice in Bangladesh. Study Design: The study was based on secondary time series data of prices of different category of rice at wholesale and retail level. Both nominal and deflated prices were sued to analyze for achieving the objectives of the study. Place and Duration of Study: Secondary time series data of price for different category of rice from country as a whole from 1991 to 2021 were used to assess its annual price behavior. Methodology: Descriptive statistics were employed to assess the annual price fluctuations, while linear regression analysis was used to evaluate the annual price trends. Results: The analysis revealed significant variations in the annual wholesale and retail prices of rice (both fine and coarse). Notably, coarse rice exhibited greater price fluctuations compared to fine rice in both wholesale and retail markets. Price fluctuation at retail level for fine rice is greater than the wholesale level but in case of coarse rice, price fluctuation at retail level is lower than wholesale level. The study further found that the wholesale price trend for fine rice increased more sharply than that of coarse rice, a pattern that was also reflected in retail prices. Conclusion: The study indicates that over the study period, the price of fine rice experienced a more pronounced fluctuate and increase compared to coarse rice.

10‐K complexity, analysts' forecasts, and price discovery in capital markets

AbstractThis paper examines the behaviour of stock prices and analysts' earnings forecasts following firms' increasingly complex 10‐K filings. Our evidence suggests that greater information uncertainty outweighs greater analyst ability, and the net effect drives greater underreaction in analysts' earnings forecasts following the release of more complex 10‐Ks. Further analysis suggests that analyst underreaction mitigates market overreaction to the information in low‐complexity 10‐K filings, and overwhelms market overreaction to the information in high‐complexity 10‐K filings thus compromising price discovery of the earnings implications of more complex 10‐Ks.

Tail and memory behaviour of the cryptocurrency prices and stock market indices

Tail and memory behaviour of the cryptocurrency prices and stock market indices

The Impact of Retail E-Commerce on Relative Prices and Consumer Welfare

Abstract This paper examines the impact of retail e-commerce on pricing behavior and welfare. Using Japanese data, we find that e-commerce lowered relative inflation rates for goods sold intensively online. We use long time series and historical catalog sales as an instrument for e-commerce sales intensity. The entry of e-commerce firms raised the rate of intercity price convergence in physical stores for goods sold intensively online, but not for other goods, which suggests e-commerce enhances price arbitrage. We estimate that e-commerce lowered variety-adjusted prices on average by 0.9% between 1996 and 2014, and more in cities with highly educated populations.

МАРКЕТИНГОВІ ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ВПЛИВУ ЦІНОВОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ НА ПОВЕДІНКУ СПОЖИВАЧІВ

Abstract Introduction. Economic terms "marketing pricing policy" are considered in the article, "behavior of consumers", interpretation different foreign and home scientists, it is given their description. The role of marketing pricing policy is investigational for companies and consumers of products or services. It is considered types of consumer behavior and their reaction on a price. The purpose of the article. Research of approaches in relation to determination of concept "marketing pricing policy" their value and terms of pricing, consideration of term "behavior of consumers", research of types of behavior of consumers and their reaction on a price. Methods. During research the methods of comparison, analysis, synthesis, abstraction, theoretical, historical and logical generalization are used. The dialectical method of research became methodological basis. Results. It is exposed essence of economic term "marketing pricing policy" and "behavior of consumers". The conducted research showed that a competent price policy is an important component of the company's marketing strategy, because the price is one of the key factors taken into account by consumers when making purchase decisions. The study of consumer behavior is a priority area in the activity of any company, because consumers, after purchasing goods, bring profit to it. Therefore, for the successful operation of the company, customers must be in the center of attention. By studying consumers, their motives, wishes, price categories, and purchase processes, companies try to offer buyers exactly what they need. Conclusiоns. A study of theoretical and practical aspects of the marketing policy of pricing and consumer behavior was conducted, the types of consumer behavior and their reaction to the price were investigated. It was determined that the influence of marketing price policy on consumers is a key factor in making a purchase decision. Price politics determines the cost of commodities and services, that influences on perception of general utility of product consumers. The question of the factors that influence the behavior of consumers that most encourage the purchase of goods or services requires further research. Defining the role and place of price in making a purchase.

Farm Profits, Prices and Household Behavior

The agricultural household model, in which decisions about production and consumption are made simultaneously, lies at the heart of many models of development. Empirically modelling these simultaneous choices is not straightforward. The vast majority of empirical studies assume that farm-households behave as if markets are complete in which case decision-making simplifies to a recursive system where consumption choices can be treated as if they are made after all production decisions. Previous empirical tests of this assumption have relied on restrictions on production decisions. We develop a new approach to testing based on household consumption choices and implement the procedure using data from rural Indonesia. Relative to production-side tests, the consumption-based test is well-suited to identifying those farm-households in any setting whose behavior is consistent with complete markets and those for whom the assumption is rejected. We find the recursion assumption is not rejected for larger farmers but is rejected for small farmers. The tests are straightforward to implement and the results of the tests provide new opportunities to identify the behaviors that households adopt in the face of incomplete markets.

Applying Fractal Theory: Solving the Geometric Challenge of Price Change and Scaling in Economics

<i>Background</i>: Price changes in economics present significant geometric challenges due to sharp discontinuities, which cannot be efficiently described by continuous processes like Brownian motion. Traditional models often rely on linear assumptions, yet financial data frequently exhibit irregular, complex patterns. Fractal theory, a mathematical framework, offers a more accurate way to describe these fluctuations by revealing the underlying self-similar structures in price changes and scaling phenomena. This study explores the use of fractal geometry to gain deeper insights into market behavior. <i>Objective</i>: The objective is to demonstrate that an alternative model, constructed based on geometric scaling assumptions, offers a more accurate description of price changes in competitive markets. <i>Method</i>: The study combined the scaling principle from fractal geometry with a stable Levy model to formulate an integrated model. The logarithmic transformation of the model was applied over successive price changes to observe the behavior of market prices. <i>Result</i>: The scaling principle asserts that no specific time interval (such as a day or a week) holds inherent significance in competitive markets. Instead, these time features are compensated or arbitrated away, supporting the idea that market behavior is self-similar across different time scales. <i>Conclusion</i>: The scaling principle provides a more reliable framework for modeling price changes and is recommended for consideration in economic analyses.

Investor demand for stocks in Initial Public Offerings and their price behaviour after debut. Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the relationship between investor demand during an IPO and the long-term behaviour of share prices following a company’s stock market debut. Specifically, the study examines the impact of the demand observed during the public offering and the size of the offering on abnormal return rates for a sample of 116 IPOs on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 2012 and mid-2022. The primary research hypothesis tests whether the medians of abnormal return rates, influenced by these factors, are statistically significant over several time intervals ranging from 3 to 12 months after the debut. The findings confirm that certain information from the completed public offering, particularly the relatively low number of new shares offered, plays a significant role in predicting abnormal changes in share prices during these periods. This research offers valuable insights for investors, emphasising the key factors within the IPO process that can influence the trajectory of share prices following a company’s market debut.

Multivariate Regression Analysis of the Impact of Open Market Share Repurchase Activity on the Malaysian Market

This research thesis revolves around the need to understand the relationship between share repurchases and the share price behavior of companies listed on Bursa Malaysia on a more recent basis given the economic stability in Malaysia and throughout the world from 2017 to 2021. It started in the West and reached maturity in the 1980s in the United States, but it only began in Malaysia in the 1990s. The studies of share repurchase are still considered an infant in Malaysia as in other countries throughout the world, companies pursue share repurchases for several reasons mainly to signal undervaluation, reward shareholders, defend against the takeover, utilize financial resources efficiently, and many more motives that are interesting for researchers to look at. Unlike other studies that look at announcement dates, since an announcement does not mean the companies will implement the transactions, this research is important since it looks at and analyzes the actual effective repurchase day done by established firms which is are most crucial aspect in analyzing the consequences and the results are that it shows positive abnormal mean returns for most of the companies. Event study methodology was used since this is the best empirical research method and as empirical evidence to analyze abnormal returns from all the other studies. The days observed are 120 days before and after the announcement. Returns for the estimation window, event window (repurchase day), and post-event window were analyzed to see the effects of price movement on repurchase activities at Bursa Malaysia (BSKL).

Seasonal Behaviour of Arrivals and Prices of Major Crops in Krishi Upaj Mandis of Chhattisgarh, India

Chhattisgarh state is famous for its forest wealth and mineral resources and there is abundant production of crops. According to total area of crops, Paddy (77.47 percent) and Chickpea (5.43 percent) are major crops of Chhattisgarh state. Arrivals and price data (Year 2014-15 to 2023-24) of major crops were collected from website of Chhattisgarh state Mandi Board. The study was observed that the peak arrivals & price of paddy were started in the same months November to January in both market (KUM, Bemetra & KUM, Bhatapara) except peak price season starts in August to October with narrow difference in KUM, Bhatapara. In case of Chickpea, the peak arrivals and price started in the month of March to May & September to November, respectively. The Price stability of both crops (paddy & Chickpea) was higher in KUM, Bhatapara as compared to KUM, Bemetra. The less price fluctuation of paddy as compared to chickpea in Chhattisgarh state due to purchasing directly to farmers by the Government with Minimum Support Price (MSP) and also provided the Bonus. The study was suggested that the economic development of farmers in state, the government should purchase agricultural products other than paddy and cooperate in setting up dal mills & processing units. Necessary steps should be taken to increase of marketable surplus and development of community level threshing area. The study was importance in knowing the market behaviour and price fluctuation during the peak season and the major reason behind. The studies also throw light on the aspect how to enrich the economic condition of the farmers.