There has been considerable research on the prolonged effects and evolution of post-earthquake landslides, as they are of significance for disaster relief and rebuilding plans in earthquake-impacted regions. There is a need to better quantify these prolonged effects and evolution based on the hydro-mechanical mechanisms of post-earthquake landslides. This study investigated the evolution of the hydro-mechanical behaviour and parameters of a single landslide by integrating experimental and theoretical analyses. Analyses were undertaken using a time series of in situ monitoring data over five hydrological years on a single landslide site in the Baisha River basin of Dujiangyan, in the Wenchuan earthquake region, China. Results indicated a linear increase in the angle of internal friction under prolonged effects, while soil cohesion decreased non-linearly, gradually approaching a lower limit. The saturated hydraulic conductivity ( $${K}_{s}$$ ) increased, and the soil residual water content ( $${\theta }_{r}$$ ) evolution curve conformed to the Boltzmann function distribution model. The soil–water characteristic curve parameters gradually increased. Based on the hydro-mechanical parameter evolution, the spatiotemporal decay of the landslide over the next decade under extreme rainfall conditions was predicted using the rainfall slope stability models and TRIGRS. This paper proposed a mechanistic explanation for the prolonged effects of a post-earthquake landslide in response to rainfall. Furthermore, it provided a reliable theoretical basis for the early warning and prevention of such landslides.