Behavioural Microsimulation Research Articles

Tassazione e offerta di lavoro: gli effetti delle modifiche IRPEF introdotte nel periodo 1998-2002

Income Taxation and Labour Supply in Italy: The Effects of the Reforms Enacted in the Period 1998-2002 - This paper discusses the labour supply effects of the income tax provisions enacted in Italy in the period 1998-2002. Indeed, these represent an interesting case-study to evaluate how responsive labour supply and participation decisions are to tax reforms in Italy. I use a behavioural microsimulation model that allows for simultaneous labor supply decisions by household members, endogenous choice between dependent employment and selfemployment, complete representation of the tax-benefit system before and after the reforms. Results show that both hours of work and the probability to participate in the labour market are more responsive for females than males, for whom actually average hours remain unchanged after the reforms. Work incentives tend to be grater for married women living in low-income households.

Distributional and Welfare Effects of Germany's Year 2000 Tax Reform

This paper empirically investigates distributional and welfare effects of Germany's year 2000 income tax reform. The reform is simulated in an ex-ante behavioral microsimulation approach. Dead weight loss of changes in capital income taxation is estimated in a structural model for household savings and asset demand applied to German survey data. Significant reductions in tax rates result in income gains for most of the households. Gains are found greater for households in higher tax brackets, whereby income inequality increases, slightly greater in East- than in West-Germany. Moreover, households increase savings and alter the structure of asset demand as a result of shifts in relative asset prices. As a consequence, utility losses reduce welfare effects for almost all households.

Wage Subsidies, Work Incentives, and the Reform of the Austrian Welfare System

We analyze the labor supply and income effects of a needs-based minimum benefit system ('Bedarfsorientierte Mindestsicherung') to be introduced in Austria by the end of this/beginning of next year. The aim of this reform is to reduce poverty as well as increasing employment rates of recipients of social assistance. On the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model we show that this new system will slightly increase incomes for the poorest households and slightly reduce labor supply due to the generous allowances for marginal employment under the current and the planned regulations of unemployment assistance. As an alternative, we analyze a reform proposal which reduces financial incentives for marginal employment not covered by social security, and rewards working longer hours by a wage subsidy. Although this alternative reform would yield modest positive labor supply effects, a relatively large number of households would suffer income losses.

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

AbstractWhen potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.

Behavioral Microsimulation Formulation for Analysis and Design of Off-Hour Delivery Policies in Urban Areas

This paper is aimed at gaining a better understanding of how to increase participation in off-hour deliveries by using behavioral microsimulation (BMS) of carrier–receiver interactions. BMS is used to study the effectiveness of policies such as time-of-day pricing and financial incentives to receivers in exchange for their acceptance of off-hour deliveries. The main components of this BMS are the simulations of receiver and carrier behaviors. The simulation of receiver behavior uses a discrete choice model to estimate receivers’ decisions to accept or reject off-hour deliveries. The simulation of carriers’ behaviors uses receivers’ decisions as an input for deciding whether to make off-hour deliveries along with a computation of the associated delivery costs. The analyses done revealed several key results: ( a) tax deductions given to receivers in exchange for accepting off-hour deliveries and financial rewards to carriers making off-hour deliveries would increase participation in off-hour deliveries, ( b) time-of-day toll surcharges have no major impact on increasing off-hour deliveries, ( c) carriers located close to their urban customers are more likely to participate in off-hour deliveries because they can easily start to accrue the benefits from off-hour delivery operations, and ( d) increased enforcement of parking fines for double-parking during regular hours could increase the number of carriers participating in off-hour deliveries.

Sequential Macro-Micro Modelling with Behavioural Microsim- ulations

This paper presents a sequential methodology that combines a macroeconomic CGE model with a behavioural microsimulation, illustrates the approach with applications, and discusses its merits and shortcomings. The microsimulation, based on a household income generation model, allows for incorporating individual fixed effects into macro-micro analysis. We argue that one of the main merits of the sequential approach is its flexibility. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of theoretical inconsistency.

Would a Flat Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany?: A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk

When possible income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex-ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship based on microeconometric research have not been provided by the literature, however. This paper estimates the ex-ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self-employment in Germany. For the estimation I apply a microsimulation model which is based on the tax-benefit model STSM and on structural microeconometric models of transitions into and out of self-employment. These structural models include an estimated parameter of risk aversion. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage, but rather discourage people from choosing self-employment. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.

Introducing Family Tax Splitting in Germany: How Would It Affect the Income Distribution, Work Incentives, and Household Welfare?

We analyze the effects of three different proposals to introduce a family tax-splitting system in Germany. The empirical analysis is based on a behavioral microsimulation model, which integrates an empirical household labor-supply model into a detailed tax-benefit model. Our results show that, under each reform, the lion's share of the reduction in taxes would accrue to families in the upper part of the income distribution, and that labor-supply effects are small. If budgetary balance were financed by a reduction of the child benefit, our results suggest that none of the reforms would be welfare-improving.

Mehr Besch�ftigung durch Subventionierung der Sozialbeitr�ge? Eine empirische Evaluation aktueller Reformvorschl�ge

: We analyse two recent proposals suggesting the subsidy of social security contributions in order to increase employment in the low wage sector in Germany. Our findings based on a behavioral microsimulation model show: First, both reforms have only small effects on labor force participation and modest positive effects on total working hours. Second, a subsidy based on individual earnings rather than on family income is more favourable to employment as it avoids the well-known negative work incentives of secondary earners.

Discrete choice models of labour supply, behavioural microsimulation and the Spanish tax reforms

The aim of the present study is to show the potential of behavioural microsimulation models as powerful tools for the ex ante evaluation of public policies. We analyse the impact of recent Spanish income tax reforms upon efficiency and household and social welfare and study the effects of various (basic-income and vital-minimum) flat tax schemes. The analysis is performed using a microsimulation model in which labour supply is explicitly taken into account. Instead of following the traditional continuous approach (Hausman, Labour supply, Aaron and Pechman (eds.), How Taxes Affect Economic Behaviour, The Brooking Institution, Washington, DC, 1981; Econometrica, 53: 1255–1282, 1985; Taxes and labour supply, Auerbach and Feldstein, (eds.), Handbook of Public Economics, North-Holland, Amsterdam, vol. 1, 1979), we estimate the direct utility function employing the methodology proposed by Aaberge et al. (Scand. J. Econ., 97: 635–659, 1995) and Van Soest (J. Hum. Resour., 30: 63–88, 1995). We maintain population heterogeneity by applying a social welfare analysis to the complete sample, rather than merely focusing on the active population. The source of our data is a sample of Spanish individuals in the 1995 wave of the EC Household Panel. We find that the redistribution policies considered have only had a minor impact on economic efficiency but, by contrast, have significantly affected social welfare.

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR POLICY REFORMS IN BEHAVIOURAL TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING

ABSTRACTThis paper addresses the need for a measure of the uncertainty that is associated with the results calculated using tax policy behavioural microsimulation models. Deriving the analytical measure would be extremely complicated. Therefore, a simulated approach is proposed, which approximates the sampling distribution of aggregate measures based on the sampling distribution of the estimated labour supply parameters. This approach, which is very computer intensive, is compared with a more time‐efficient approach where the functional form of the sampling distribution is assumed to be normal. The results show that in many instances the results from the two approaches are quite similar. The exception is when aggregate measures for minor types of payments, involving relatively small groups of the population, are examined.

Making Work Pay for the Elderly Unemployed --Evaluating Alternative Policy Reforms for Germany

We evaluate three policy reforms targeted at older unemployed people: (i) an hourly wage subsidy, (ii) an in-work credit, and (iii) an employment bonus in the form of subsidized social security contributions on low wages. The work-incentive, labor-supply, and welfare effects of these policy reforms are analyzed on the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model for Germany. We find that the simulated labor-supply effects of the three policy reforms would be rather similar and of moderate size. Our results also suggest that the hourly wage subsidy yields the highest welfare gains.

The Distributive and Labor Supply Impact of the Minimum Insertion Income: The Case of Italy

This paper analyzes the redistributive and labor supply effects of extending at national level the Minimum Insertion Income, introduced experimentally in 1999 in some Italian municipalities. We develop a behavioral microsimulation tax-benefit model that allows for simultaneous labor supply decisions by household members, endogenous choice between dependent employment and self-employment, complete representation of the current Italian tax-benefit system. The results show a positive impact on both inequality and poverty, while overall labor supply reduces. On average magnitude of labor supply disincentive is small for married individuals, relatively larger for single persons and, within this category, for women than men.

Introducing Family Tax Splitting in Germany: How Would it Affect the Income Distribution and Work Incentives?

We analyze the effects of three alternative proposals to reform the taxation of families relative to the current German system of joint taxation of couples and child allowances: a French-type family splitting and two full family splitting proposals. The empirical analysis of the effects of these proposals on the income distribution and on work incentives is based on a behavioral micro-simulation model which integrates an empirical household labor supply model into a detailed tax-benefit model based on the German Socio Economic Panel. Our simulation results show that under each reform the lion’s share of the reduction in taxes would accrue to families with children in the upper part of the income distribution, and that expected labor supply effects are small for all analyzed family tax splitting reforms, both in absolute terms and relative to the implied fiscal costs.

MEASURING WELFARE CHANGES IN LABOUR SUPPLY MODELS*

This paper examines the computation of welfare measures for use with labour supply models. The standard method of computing compensating and equivalent variations does not allow sufficiently for the nonlinearity of the budget constraint in such models. An alternative method is suggested and applied to contexts in which individuals are allowed to vary their hours continuously and to contexts where only a limited number of discrete hours of work are available. Discrete hours models have in recent years been used in view of the substantial econometric advantages when estimating the parameters of direct utility functions. This type of model is particularly popular in behavioural microsimulation modelling where predicted labour supply responses are calculated for policy changes. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester, 2005.

Income distribution in discrete hours behavioural microsimulation models: An illustration

In tax microsimulation models which predict labour supply using a probabilistic discrete hours approach, the analysis of the distribution of income is difficult because, even for a small sample with a modest range of labour supply points, the range of possible combinations over the sample is extremely large. This paper demonstrates the use of a pseudo income distribution, where the probability of a particular labour supply value occurring (standardised by the population size) is used to refer to a particular position in the pseudo income distribution. The superior performance of the pseudo approach compared to using the expected income or taking few draws from the possible set of distributions is illustrated by a simulation example for sole parents in Australia, in which the whole social security system is abolished. The example shows further that even if sole parents could move freely into the labour force, they do not manage to compensate fully or even close to fully for their loss of income when no benefit payments are available.

Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: An Application to Some EU Tax Benefits Systems

In this work we explore the impact of alternative tax benefits systems on household welfare. The framework of our analysis is the theory of optimal taxation with the distribution of potential wages replaced by the distribution of household abilities. The latter has been calculated by inversion of the household's utility maximization problem. This methodology has then been implemented in order to compare the tax benefits systems of France and the United Kingdom. We have employed a behavioral micro-simulation model that has been applied on samples extracted from the Households Budget 1989 of INSEE and from the Family Expenditure Survey of ONS.

Distributional Effects of the German Tax Reform 2000 - A Behavioral Microsimulation Analysis

In the year 2000, the German government passed the most ambitious tax reform in postwar German history aiming at significant tax relief for households. We analyze the effects of this reform an the distribution of household incomes using a behavioral microsimulation model based an representative micro-data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). Our empirical analysis accounts for the effects of bracket creeping and labor supply adjustment an the distribution of household incomes. We find that the tax reform leads to a significant increase in net household income. The relative gains increase with taxable income, thus income inequality is rising. This is slightly mitigated by the impact of the labor supply responses induced by the reform, especially at the lower end of the income distribution.

Simulating Household Savings and Labour Supply: an Application of Dynamic Programming

This paper describes a fully behavioural microsimulation model that has recently been developed at the National Institute for considering responses to changes in pension policy of household savings and labour supply. The model generates household decisions regarding labour/leisure, and consumption/savings by solving a dynamic programming problem over the simulated lifetime. This analytical framework incorporates a degree of complexity that is usually omitted from econometric analyses that are common in the literature.

Labour Supply and Income Tax Changes: A Simulation Study for Finland

It is well known that estimation of the labour supply function is complicated by the non-linearity of the individual's budget constraint. Non-linearity may be caused by a number of factors such as the structure of the tax/benefit scheme or overtime rates. Non-linearities also cause problems in interpreting the policy implications of the estimates. In this study we use a well-structured econometric labour supply model that mimics actual budget constraints as closely as possible to analyse the labour-supply effects of different income tax regimes and systems. In addition to the empirically-specified labour supply model, we construct, for the first time in Finland, a behavioural microsimulation model. Our intent is to contribute to the tax debate in Finland by simulating several suggested changes in the tax system. Our simulation results show that none of the proposed reforms are self-financing. Revenue-neutral move to a proportional tax system does not have major effects on labour supply. The most pronounced behavioural effects are achieved when marginal tax rates are reduced at the lower end of the income tax schedule.