Context Understanding fire and inundation impacts on wetland vegetation communities is crucial for effective post-fire wetland management. Aims We aimed to determine the impact of post-fire inundation on plant community structure and seedling germination and establishment after a large wildfire. We asked two questions, namely (1) did fire, drought or inundation affect plant communities the most; and (2) did fire or inundation affect seedling germination and establishment? Methods Using a before–after–control–impact (BACI) design, we monitored vegetation changes in water-couch wetland communities before and after a wildfire. Also, soil samples were collected from burnt and unburnt sites and assessed for impacts of fire and post-fire inundation regimes on seed germination and seedling establishment. Key results Inundation variables had more pronounced and more consistent impacts on vegetation measures than did fire or drought variables. Fire impacts were mainly short-term, with impact thresholds at 72 and 143 days after fire. Low germination levels and zero seedling survival were observed without inundation. Conclusions Fire was a major but short-term contributor to wetland vegetation change, whereas drought had longer-term impacts, and inundation regimes had the greatest impacts. Implications Providing a range of inundation conditions post-fire may enhance wetland vegetation recovery and have modifying effects on invasive species.