Bayesian Model Research Articles

Predicting human reliability for emergency fire pump operational process on tanker ships utilising fuzzy Bayesian Network CREAM modelling

An emergency fire pump is a critical equipment which assists the ship crew in handling extreme emergency situations involving fire on-board tanker ships. In case the main fire pump becomes ineffective during a fire, the emergency fire pump is used to extinguish the fire. In this case, it is necessary for the ship's crew to operate and use the pump without any failure. The aim of this study is to systematically predict human (crew) reliability for emergency fire pump operational processes on tanker ships since human dependability plays a significant role in safer shipment. To achieve this goal, fuzzy and BN (Bayesian Network) CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method) modelling is applied. CREAM is used to methodically estimate the probability of human error within a fuzzy set that accounts for uncertainties of CPC (Common Performance Condition), while BN is competent in estimating control modes in CREAM's reliability analysis. The paper's findings show ship crew reliability (9.08E-01) for the emergency fire pump operation process on tanker ships. These findings are expected to provide valuable information to prevent human errors and improve safety on tanker ships during firefighting, thereby reassuring the maritime industry of the potential for increased safety.

Gender differences in reported potentially morally injurious events among post-9/11 U.S. combat veterans, using two measures.

Military experiences that violate one's sense of right and wrong (i.e., potentially morally injurious events [PMIEs]) may result in moral injury, characterized by shame, guilt, demoralization, self-condemnation, and social withdrawal. The objective of this study was to examine gender-related differences in the rate of reporting PMIEs. Secondary analyses were conducted on a previously collected longitudinal cohort study of postdeployment functioning among U.S. post-9/11 combat veterans in Central Texas (N = 406). As part of the parent study, participants completed two measures of PMIEs-the Moral Injury Events Scale (MIES; Nash et al., 2013) and the Moral Injury Questionnaire-Military Version (MIQ-M; Currier et al., 2015). Gender differences at the item response level were analyzed in a series of Bayesian multilevel item response theory models. The most frequently endorsed responses on both the MIES and MIQ-M for both men and women were never or strongly disagree. On the MIQ-M, more veteran men endorsed experiencing PMIEs to some degree. On the MIES, more veteran women endorsed strongly agree to betrayal items. Veteran men and women reported any PMIE occurring at relatively high rates. Gender differences at the item response level were found for most items on both the MIES and MIQ-M, albeit of small magnitude. Awareness of gender differences in the likelihood of experiencing a given PMIE may help inform clinical assessments and case conceptualizations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Issues Associated With the Formulation of a Small Area Model for Estimation of State-Level Crime Victimization Rates

Subnational estimation is an important and challenging problem in the context of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). Direct estimates for subnational domains are often unreliable due to small sample sizes. Model-based procedures have potential to improve upon direct estimators. However, model-based estimation presents several new challenges. One must identify suitable covariates, and an appropriate model form must be specified. This article discusses issues associated with the formulation of a small area model for production of state-level estimates of crime victimization rates. An analysis of direct estimates and covariates motivates the development of a Bayesian multivariate model. A model in the original scale is compared to a model in the log scale. Efficiency gains from the model relative to the direct estimators are examined. One challenge is that direct estimates can equal zero. Two ways of handling zero direct estimates are discussed.

Prediction of Multi-Pharmacokinetics Property in Multi-Species: Bayesian Neural Network Stacking Model with Uncertainty.

Pharmacokinetic (PK) properties of a drug are vital attributes influencing its therapeutic effectiveness, playing an important role in the drug development process. Focusing on the difficult task of predicting PK parameters, we compiled an extensive data set comprising parameters across multiple species. Building upon this groundwork, we introduced the PKStack ensemble model to predict PK parameters across diverse species. PKStack integrates a variety of base models and includes uncertainty in its predictions. We also manually collected PK data from animals as an external test set. We predicted a total of 45 tasks for nine PK parameters in five species, and in general, the prediction accuracy was better for intravenous injections, including parameters such as human Vd (R2 = 0.72, RMSE = 0.31), human CL (R2 = 0.52, RMSE = 0.32), and others. In addition to predictive accuracy, we also considered the interpretability of the results and the definition of the model's application domain. Based on the findings, our model has great potential for practical applications in drug discovery.

Society's educational debts due to racism, sexism, and classism in introductory biology student learning

AbstractWe investigated the intersectional relationships between racism, sexism, and classism in inequities in student conceptual knowledge in introductory biology courses using a quantitative critical framework. Using Bayesian hierarchical linear models, we examined students' conceptual knowledge as measured by the Introductory Molecular and Cell Biology Assessment. The data came from the LASSO Platform database and included 6547 students from 87 introductory courses at 11 institutions. The model indicated that students with marginalized identities by race, gender, and class tended to start with lower scores than continuing‐generation, White men. We conceptualized these differences as educational debts society owed these students due to racism, sexism, and classism. Instruction added to these educational debts for most marginalized groups, with the largest increases for students with multiple marginalized identities. After instruction, society owed Black and Hispanic, first‐generation women an educational debt equal to 60–80% of the average learning in the courses. These courses almost all (85/87) used collaborative learning and half (45/87) supported instruction with near‐peer learning assistants. While research shows collaborative learning better serves students than lecture‐based instruction, these results indicate it adds to educational debts due to racism, sexism, and classism in introductory college biology courses.

How to validate a Bayesian evolutionary model.

Biology has become a highly mathematical discipline in which probabilistic models play a central role. As a result, research in the biological sciences is now dependent on computational tools capable of carrying out complex analyses. These tools must be validated before they can be used, but what is understood as validation varies widely among methodological contributions. This may be a consequence of the still embryonic stage of the literature on statistical software validation for computational biology. Our manuscript aims to advance this literature. Here, we describe, illustrate and introduce new good practices for assessing the correctness of a model implementation, with an emphasis on Bayesian methods. We also introduce a suite of functionalities for automating validation protocols. It is our hope that the guidelines presented here help sharpen the focus of discussions on (as well as elevate) expected standards of statistical software for biology.

Demonstrating almost half of cotton fiber quality variation is attributed to climate change using a hybrid machine learning-enabled approach

Understanding the effects of climate change on cotton fiber quality will reduce the risks to production caused by global warming. Machine learning algorithms are effective for forecasting climate impacts on crops. However, the impact of climate change on cotton fiber quality is unclear. Hence, a hybrid machine learning-enabled approach, the Bayesian model average (BMA) method with multiple machine learning algorithms (linear regressor, SVR, RFR, GBDT, LightGBM, and XGBoost) and bootstrap resampling, was developed to explore the impact and screen the important climatic factors affecting various traits of fiber quality. On the basis of fiber quality data from 1033 test stations across Xinjiang, China, from 2016 to 2022, the explained variance for climate change in the hybrid machine learning model was as follows: 44.72 %–50.55 % for white cotton grade, 44.06 %–53.95 % for length, 51.72 %–56.81 % for micronaire, 32.70 %–49.50 % for length uniformity, and 45.66 %–53.09 % for strength in the 1000 bootstrapping samples. In addition, recursive feature elimination with cross-validation (RFECV) was used to select the optimal feature set and calculate the contribution of each feature. The variability in micronaire in the hybrid model was affected primarily by climate factors, such as the daily minimum temperature, rainfall, and wind speed, whereas the other quality traits were affected mainly by radiation-related climatic indicators. The climate during the harvest stage in October had a significant effect on cotton quality, explaining 33.0 % of the variance in white cotton grade, 32.1 % in length, and 48.3 % in fiber strength. Conversely, the climate during the boll opening and early harvest stages in September had a greater influence on micronaire and length uniformity, accounting for 21.4 % and 37.2 % of the variance, respectively. This study highlights that climate change explains nearly 50 % of the variation in fiber quality, with the influence being notably more considerable during the later stages of the cotton growth period. These findings clarify the uncertainty in the impact of climate change on cotton fiber quality considering the uncertainty of the single machine model and model errors. Equally important, this information can be valuable for farmers and growers seeking to improve fiber quality under climate change.

Model-averaged Bayesian ttests.

One of the most common statistical analyses in experimental psychology concerns the comparison of two means using the frequentist ttest. However, frequentist ttests do not quantify evidence and require various assumption tests. Recently, popularized Bayesian ttests do quantify evidence, but these were developed for scenarios where the two populations are assumed to have the same variance. As an alternative to both methods, we outline a comprehensive ttest framework based on Bayesian model averaging. This new ttest framework simultaneously takes into account models that assume equal and unequal variances, and models that use t-likelihoods to improve robustness to outliers. The resulting inference is based on a weighted average across the entire model ensemble, with higher weights assigned to models that predicted the observed data well. This new ttest framework provides an integrated approach to assumption checks and inference by applying a series of pertinent models to the data simultaneously rather than sequentially. The integrated Bayesian model-averaged ttests achieve robustness without having to commit to a single model following a series of assumption checks. To facilitate practical applications, we provide user-friendly implementations in JASP and via the package in . A tutorial video is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcuzGTIcorQ.

Quantifying tumor specificity using Bayesian probabilistic modeling for drug and immunotherapeutic target discovery.

In diseases such as cancer, the design of new therapeutic strategies requires extensive, costly, and unfortunately sometimes deadly testing to reveal life threatening off-target effects. We hypothesized that the disease specificity of targets can be systematically learned for all genes by jointly evaluating complementary molecular measurements of healthy tissues using a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach. Our method, BayesTS, integrates protein and gene expression evidence and includes tunable parameters to moderate tissue essentiality. Applied to all protein coding genes, BayesTS outperforms alternative strategies to define therapeutic targets and nominates previously unknown targets while allowing for incorporation of new types of modalities. To expand target repertoires, we show that extension of BayesTS to splicing antigens and combinatorial target pairs results in more specific targets for therapy. We expect that BayesTS will facilitate improved target prioritization for oncology drug development, ultimately leading to the discovery of more effective and safer treatments.

Local effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigation of COVID-19 spread through decreased human mobilities in Japan: a prefecture-level mediation analysis

To control the COVID-19 epidemic, the Japanese government and the local governments have repeatedly implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) throughout 2020–2022. Using Bayesian state-space mediation models, we examined the effect of repeated NPIs on infection spread mitigation, mediated by human mobility changes in each prefecture during three epidemic phases: from April 1, 2020 to February 28, 2021; from March 1, 2021 to December 16, 2021; and from December 17, 2021 to December 31, 2022. In the first phase, controlling downtown populations at nighttime was effective in mitigating the infection spread in almost all prefectures. In the second and third phases, the effect was not clear, especially in metropolitan prefectures. Controlling visitors from the central prefectures of metropolitan areas was effective in mitigating infection spread in the surrounding prefectures during all phases. These results suggest that the local spread of infection can be mitigated by focusing on nighttime human mobility control in downtown areas before the epidemic spreads widely and transmission routes become more diverse, and that the geospatial spread of infection can be prevented by controlling the flows of people from large cities to other areas.

Assessing the effect of model specification and prior sensitivity on Bayesian tests of temporal signal.

Our understanding of the evolution of many microbes has been revolutionised by the molecular clock, a statistical tool to infer evolutionary rates and timescales from analyses of biomolecular sequences. In all molecular clock models, evolutionary rates and times are jointly unidentifiable and 'calibration' information must therefore be used. For many organisms, sequences sampled at different time points can be employed for such calibration. Before attempting to do so, it is recommended to verify that the data carry sufficient information for molecular dating, a practice referred to as evaluation of temporal signal. Recently, a fully Bayesian approach, BETS (Bayesian Evaluation of Temporal Signal), was proposed to overcome known limitations of other commonly used techniques such as root-to-tip regression or date randomisation tests. BETS requires the specification of a full Bayesian phylogenetic model, posing several considerations for untangling the impact of model choice on the detection of temporal signal. Here, we aimed to (i) explore the effect of molecular clock model and tree prior specification on the results of BETS and (ii) provide guidelines for improving our confidence in molecular clock estimates. Using microbial molecular sequence data sets and simulation experiments, we assess the impact of the tree prior and its hyperparameters on the accuracy of temporal signal detection. In particular, highly informative priors that are inconsistent with the data can result in the incorrect detection of temporal signal. In consequence, we recommend: (i) using prior predictive simulations to determine whether the prior generates a reasonable expectation of parameters of interest, such as the evolutionary rate and age of the root node, (ii) conducting prior sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the posterior to the choice of prior, and (iii) selecting a molecular clock model that reasonably describes the evolutionary process.

Space-for-time substitutions exaggerate urban bird-habitat ecological relationships.

North American bird abundance has declined by 29% over the last 50 years. These continental population dynamics interact with local landscape changes to affect local bird diversity. Mitigating local declines in cities is particularly significant because (a) such declines greatly impact human-bird relationships since most people live in cities and (b) cities provide levers to create bird-friendly habitat, such as managing yards and gardens, street trees, and urban parks. Yet, the potential for cities to modify habitats to mitigate broader bird declines remains unclear. Studies have been stymied by the difficulty of assembling mutidecadal habitat-bird population datasets. Instead, studies have substituted space for time (e.g. used habitat associations across space at one time point to project future species abundance due to changing land use), but this method may fail amidst nonstationary environments of the Anthropocene. Here, we test the validity of space-for-time substitutions for explaining changes in bird abundance in a North American city over the past two decades by examining the degree to which these changes are explainable by changes in local landcover at multiple spatial scales. Specifically, we use longitudinal urban bird surveys of Metro Vancouver, BC, Canada from 1997 and 2020; deep learning models of remote sensing data to classify contemporaneous landcover; out-of-sample prediction and boosted regression trees to identify multiple spatial scales of landcover that best explained bird abundance (i.e. optimal scale of effect for each species by each habitat); and Bayesian multispecies abundance models in Stan to determine relationships between changes in landcover and bird abundance. We found that total bird abundance declined by 26% over the last two decades. Landcover measured at both 50 m and optimal scales explained spatial variation in bird abundance, but only landcover at the optimal scale explained temporal changes, and only partially. These results suggest that space-for-time substitutions overemphasize habitat-bird ecological relationships, urban habitats only partially determine bird abundance, and measuring habitat at the appropriate scale is important for capturing the most relevant changes in landscapes.

Mapping soil moisture across the UK: assimilating cosmic-ray neutron sensors, remotely sensed indices, rainfall radar and catchment water balance data in a Bayesian hierarchical model

Abstract. Soil moisture is important in many hydrological and ecological processes. However, data sets which are currently available have issues with accuracy and resolution. To translate remotely sensed data to an absolute measure of soil moisture requires mapped estimates of soil hydrological properties and estimates of vegetation properties, and this introduces considerable uncertainty. We present an alternative methodology for producing daily maps of soil moisture over the UK at 2 km resolution (“SMUK”). The method is based on a simple linear statistical model, calibrated with 5 years of daily data from cosmic-ray neutron sensors at ∼ 40 sites across the country. The model is driven by precipitation, humidity, a remotely sensed “soil water index” satellite product and soil porosity. The spatial variation in the parameter describing the soil water retention (and thereby the response to precipitation) was estimated using daily water balance data from ∼ 1200 catchments with good coverage across the country. The model parameters were estimated by Bayesian calibration using a Markov chain–Monte Carlo method, so as to characterise the posterior uncertainty in the parameters and predictions. The approach reduces uncertainty by integrating multiple data sources, all of which have weaknesses but together act as a better constraint on the true soil moisture. The model explains around 70 % of the variance in the daily observations with a root-mean-square error of 0.05 m3 m−3, better than results from more complex process-based models. Given the high resolution of the inputs in time and space, the model can predict the very detailed variation in soil moisture which arises from the sporadic nature of precipitation events, including the small-scale and short-term variations associated with orographic and convective rainfall. Predictions over the period 2016 to 2023 demonstrated realistic patterns following the passage of weather fronts and prolonged droughts. The model has negligible computation time, and inputs and predictions are updated daily, lagging approximately 1 week behind real time.

Clinical Decision Support to Increase Emergency Department Naloxone Coprescribing: Implementation Report.

Coprescribing naloxone with opioid analgesics is a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) best practice to mitigate the risk of fatal opioid overdose, yet coprescription by emergency medicine clinicians is rare, occurring less than 5% of the time it is indicated. Clinical decision support (CDS) has been associated with increased naloxone prescribing; however, key CDS design characteristics and pragmatic outcome measures necessary to understand replicability and effectiveness have not been reported. This study aimed to rigorously evaluate and quantify the impact of CDS designed to improve emergency department (ED) naloxone coprescribing. We hypothesized CDS would increase naloxone coprescribing and the number of naloxone prescriptions filled by patients discharged from EDs in a large health care system. Following user-centered design principles, we designed and implemented a fully automated, interruptive, electronic health record-based CDS to nudge clinicians to coprescribe naloxone with high-risk opioid prescriptions. "High-risk" opioid prescriptions were defined as any opioid analgesic prescription ≥90 total morphine milligram equivalents per day or for patients with a prior diagnosis of opioid use disorder or opioid overdose. The Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework was used to evaluate pragmatic CDS outcomes of reach, effectiveness, adoption, implementation, and maintenance. Effectiveness was the primary outcome of interest and was assessed by (1) constructing a Bayesian structural time-series model of the number of ED visits with naloxone coprescriptions before and after CDS implementation and (2) calculating the percentage of naloxone prescriptions associated with CDS that were filled at an outpatient pharmacy. Mann-Kendall tests were used to evaluate longitudinal trends in CDS adoption. All outcomes were analyzed in R (version 4.2.2; R Core Team). Between November 2019 and July 2023, there were 1,994,994 ED visits. CDS reached clinicians in 0.83% (16,566/1,994,994) of all visits and 15.99% (16,566/103,606) of ED visits where an opioid was prescribed at discharge. Clinicians adopted CDS, coprescribing naloxone in 34.36% (6613/19,246) of alerts. CDS was effective, increasing naloxone coprescribing from baseline by 18.1 (95% CI 17.9-18.3) coprescriptions per week or 2,327% (95% CI 3390-3490). Patients filled 43.80% (1989/4541) of naloxone coprescriptions. The CDS was implemented simultaneously at every ED and no adaptations were made to CDS postimplementation. CDS was maintained beyond the study period and maintained its effect, with adoption increasing over time (τ=0.454; P<.001). Our findings advance the evidence that electronic health record-based CDS increases the number of naloxone coprescriptions and improves the distribution of naloxone. Our time series analysis controls for secular trends and strongly suggests that minimally interruptive CDS significantly improves process outcomes.

Transdiagnostic Anxiety-Related Increases in Information Sampling are Associated With Altered Valuation.

Excessive information sampling in psychiatric patients characterized by high trait anxiety has been inconsistently linked with alterations in inferential and valuation processes. Methodological limitations could account in part for these inconsistencies. To address this, computational models of inference and valuation were applied to data collected from a transdiagnostic sample of adults with and without an anxiety or compulsive disorder using a version of the beads task with enhanced experimental controls. Participants diagnosed with an anxiety or compulsive disorder (n = 35) and healthy controls (n = 23) completed the beads task with three majority-to-minority ratios of blue versus green beads (60:40, 75:25, 90:10). First, a Bayesian belief-updating model was fit to quantify the iterative process by which new information (bead color) and prior beliefs were integrated to influence current beliefs about jar identity. Next, a parameterized partially observable Markov decision process model was used to parse the contribution of value-based decisions to sampling behavior and included a relative subjective cost parameter, Csub , for each bead-ratio condition. Higher trait anxiety was associated with more draws-to-decision, most robustly in the 90:10 bead-ratio condition. Only relative subjective cost of sampling decisions, and not inferential differences in weighting of new or old information, satisfactorily accounted for this relation. Specifically, lower Csub(0.9) was associated with more trait anxiety and more draws-to-decision. In a condition with high objective evidence strength, transdiagnostic trait-anxiety-related increases in information sampling were explained by a cost-benefit analysis where relatively higher subjective cost was assigned to an incorrect guess, highlighting valuation as a potential treatment target for future research.

Disparities in wellbeing in the USA by race and ethnicity, age, sex, and location, 2008-21: an analysis using the Human Development Index.

The Human Development Index (HDI)-a composite metric encompassing a population's life expectancy, education, and income-is used widely for assessing and comparing human development and wellbeing at the country level, but does not account for within-country inequality. In this study of the USA, we aimed to adapt the HDI framework to measure the HDI at an individual level to examine disparities in the distribution of wellbeing by race and ethnicity, sex, age, and geographical location. We used individual-level data on adults aged 25 years and older from the 2008-21 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample. We extracted information on race and ethnicity, age, sex, location (Public Use Microdata Areas), educational attainment, and household income and size. We merged these data with estimated life tables by race and ethnicity, sex, age, location (county), and year, generated using Bayesian small-area estimation models applied to death certificate data from the National Vital Statistics System. For each individual in the ACS, we used these combined data to estimate years of education, household consumption, and expected lifespan; converted each of these three features into an index using a percentile score; and calculated the HDI as the geometric mean of these three indices. Finally, we grouped individuals into yearly HDI deciles. Years of education, household consumption, and expected lifespan-and thus the HDI-varied considerably among adults in the USA during the 2008-21 period. For most race and ethnicity and sex groups, the mean HDI increased gradually from 2008 to 2019, then declined in 2020 due to declines in expected lifespan, although there were systematic differences in the distribution of the HDI by race and ethnicity and sex. In the lowest HDI decile, there was over-representation (ie, >10% of the total population of a given race and ethnicity and sex group) of American Indian and Alaska Native (AIAN) males (50% [SE 0·2] in decile, mean annual population in decile 0·37 million [SE 0·002]), Black males (40% [<0·1], 4·67 million [0·006]), AIAN females (23% [0·1], 0·19 million [0·001]), Latino males (21% [<0·1], 3·27 million [0·006]), Black females (14% [<0·1], 1·86 million [0·004]), and Latina females (13% [<0·1], 2·07 million [0·006]). Given differences in total population size, however, White males were the largest population group in the lowest decile (27% [<0·1] of the lowest decile, 5·87 million [0·012]), followed by Black males (22% [<0·1]) and Latino males (15% [<0·1]). There were notable differences in these patterns by age group: for example, for the 25-44 years age group, the lowest HDI decile had even greater over-representation of AIAN males (66% [0·2] in decile, 0·22 million [0·001]) and Black males (46% [<0·1], 2·52 million [0·005]) than the 85 years and older age group (22% [1·1], <0·01 million [<0·001]; and 20% [0·3], 0·03 million [<0·001]). By contrast, the lowest decile had an under-representation of Asian females (2% [<0·1], 0·06 million [<0·001]) in the 25-44 years age group, but an over-representation in the 85 years and older age group (25% [0·3], 0·03 million [<0·001]). The lowest HDI decile for the 25-44 years age group was primarily male (76% [<0·1], 6·44 million [0·009]) whereas for age 85 years and older it was predominantly female (71% [0·1], 0·42 million [0·002]). In the highest HDI decile, shifts in the composition of the population by age were particularly large for White males, who made up 5% (0·1; 0·39 million [0·001]) of this decile in the 25-44 years age group, but 49% (0·2; 0·29 million [0·001]) in the 85 years and older age group. From 2012 to 2021, the proportion of the population living in the lowest HDI decile varied substantially by location, and a disproportionately high share of the population living in locations in much of the southern half of the USA, Appalachia, and Rust Belt states were in the lowest HDI decile. Substantial disparities in wellbeing exist within the USA and are heavily influenced by race and ethnicity (due to racism), sex, age, and geographical location. These disparities are not immutable, but improvement is not a given, and gains can be fleeting in the face of a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Sustained action to ensure that everyone has meaningful access to a high-quality education, the means to earn a sufficient income, and the opportunity to live a long and healthy life is needed to reduce these disparities and should focus on the populations and locations that are worst off. State of Washington and National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities.

Quadrivalent Conjugate Vaccine and Invasive Meningococcal Disease in US Adolescents and Young Adults

Beginning in 2005, the US implemented routine immunization of adolescents with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) for the prevention of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). To assess whether MenACWY immunization was associated with a reduced IMD burden among the US adolescent population and how the downward trajectory of IMD that began in the mid-1990s might have evolved in the absence of vaccination efforts. In this decision analytical study, a bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model was developed to investigate the potential trajectory of IMD among US adolescents and young adults without vaccination and evaluate the direct association of vaccination with IMD burden. The model included the entire age-stratified US population and was fitted to national incidence data for serogroups C, W, and Y from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2021, with stratification by vaccination status for IMD cases. Simulated counterfactual scenario of absent vaccination from 2005 to 2021, while retaining the incidence rate of IMD for unvaccinated individuals estimated during model fitting. The main outcomes were the estimated numbers of IMD cases and deaths averted by MenACWY vaccination among US adolescents and young adults aged 11 to 23 years. Among the entire US population from 2005 to 2021, MenACWY vaccination prevented an estimated 172 (95% credible interval [CrI], 85-345) cases of IMD among US adolescents 11 to 15 years of age and 328 (95% CrI, 164-646) cases of IMD among those aged 16 to 23 years. Absent vaccination, the cumulative incidence of IMD in these age groups would have been at least 59% higher than reported over the same period with vaccination. Using case fatality rates of unvaccinated individuals derived from national data, vaccination averted an estimated 16 (95% CrI, 8-31) deaths among adolescents aged 11 to 15 years and 38 (95% CrI, 19-75) deaths among those aged 16 to 23 years. This decision analytical model suggests that the MenACWY vaccination program in the US was associated with a reduced burden of meningococcal disease. Without vaccination, the incidence rates per 100 000 adolescents and young adults would have been substantially higher than those observed during the vaccine era.

Multi-task Bayesian model combining FDG-PET/CT imaging and clinical data for interpretable high-grade prostate cancer prognosis.

We propose a fully automatic multi-task Bayesian model, named Bayesian Sequential Network(BSN), for predicting high-grade(Gleason 8) prostate cancer(PCa) prognosis using pre-prostatectomy FDG-PET/CT images and clinical data. BSN performs one classification task and five survival tasks: predicting lymph node invasion (LNI), biochemical recurrence-free survival (BCR-FS), metastasis-free survival, definitive androgen deprivation therapy-free survival, castration-resistant PCa-free survival, and PCa-specific survival(PCSS). Experiments are conducted using a dataset of 295patients. BSN outperforms widely used nomograms on all tasks except PCSS, leveraging multi-task learning and imaging data. BSN also provides automated prostate segmentation, uncertainty quantification, personalized feature-based explanations, and introduces dynamic predictions, a novel approach that relies on short-term outcomes to refine long-term prognosis. Overall, BSN shows great promise in its ability to exploit imaging and clinicopathological data to predict poor outcome patients that need treatment intensification with loco-regional or systemic adjuvant therapy for high-risk PCa.

Correction: Towards a Generalized Bayesian Model of Reconstructive Memory

Correction: Towards a Generalized Bayesian Model of Reconstructive Memory

Combining the pieces: identifying key determinants of export diversification in Africa amidst model uncertainty

AbstractExport diversification can be a driver of economic growth. Policies to diversify exports attempt to defy an existing comparative advantage in low-value-added goods to promote transformation. Many structural, general policy, and trade-related variables have been identified as important drivers of diversification. This article reviews the literature on the determinants of export diversification and applies Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to empirically tackle model uncertainty stemming from many possible determinants. It assesses the relevance and impact of up to 46 drivers of export diversification for up to 47 African countries and 123 trading partners from 1995 to 2018. It finds that African countries’ structural features are especially influential in determining export diversification, a potential explanation for Africa’s more concentrated export baskets compared to other world regions. Furthermore, trade policies, like tariffs and regional integration, are critical in promoting export diversification. These findings underscore the AfCFTA’s potential to foster export diversification across African economies. A diverse set of non-trade-related policy variables also significantly affect export diversification. Factors such as institutions, education, service sector, resource rents, financial development, FDI and exchange rate stability are relevant determinants in different settings. Moreover, the analysis shows that whom you trade with is also important for diversification, and that context-specific differences, such as specific regional integration contexts or type of commodity-dependence, matter. The results suggest that the goals to diversify exports at the extensive margin for structural change and the intensive margin to tackle volatility, seem often not achievable via the same policies.